Delaware Bay south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late This Evening, Then Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly This Evening. Areas Of Smoke Late This Evening. Smoke After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Smoke. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke In The Evening, Then Patchy Smoke After Midnight. |
| Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds, Becoming S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 818pm EDT Thu July 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect. Thunderstorms continue to impact portions of the southern Jersey Shore. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect. 2. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend. 3. Thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of southeast New Jersey through this evening. 4. The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 1...The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect. Temperatures continue to fall. Temperatures on Friday will remain slightly above normal for mid- July. However, dew points are expected to be more comfortable only in the mid 50s. Thus, heat indicies will not be far removed from the actual air temperature. KEY MESSAGE 2...Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend. Latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance continues to depict that a slug of dense near surface smoke from the wildfires originating over western Ontario will spread into the region tonight. Skies will likely be quite hazy with visibilities projected to fall between 1 to 3 miles overnight, before improving some on Friday. With more of a northerly surface flow expected overnight and into early Friday, this may suppress the worst of the smoke south of our area by mid-day. However, as flow shifts to more southerly by Friday night, guidance is hinting that surface smoke may return into the weekend. While the smoke is anticipated to result in visibility restrictions and poor air quality around the region, to what degree is more uncertain. Given current observations from upstream, this smoke event is not anticipated to be as severe as the June 2023 event, but this will be difficult to predict days in advance. Latest guidance is a bit more optimistic about the smoke clearing out somewhat on Friday. For more information about air quality in your area, visit your state Department of Environmental Protection agency. We will also relay any Air Quality Alerts they may issue on our website. KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of southeast New Jersey through this evening. A frontal boundary remains hung up over southern New Jersey and back into the Delaware Valley. There is a noticeable mark in the difference of dew points, with dew points in the 60s north of the boundary and in the 70s south of the boundary. Along this boundary, showers and thunderstorms fired up west of Philadelphia late this afternoon, then tracked into southern New Jersey, and then training of storms with severe wind gusts impacted mostly Manahawkin to Ship Bottom. With this boundary not making much movement at all, storms will continue to fire up through this evening, mostly in the same area. Flash Flood Warnings, several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, even a Tornado Warning were and may still be in effect for this area. Based on latest trends, several more severe thunderstorms may train over this area. KEY MESSAGE 4...The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Low pressure will move eastward through the Great Lakes region Friday night through Saturday before passing by to our north Saturday night into early Sunday. As this occurs, expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to move through...first with the warm front and then with the cold front. At this point it looks like conditions stay mainly dry through most of Friday night. Heading into Saturday, the warm front lifts through in the morning and this will bring an initial round of showers and storms through the area. This first round should especially target areas near and north of the urban corridor where POPs are 70-90 percent. Parts of south Jersey and southern Delmarva could largely miss this initial round. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding with the morning storms but the severe weather risk looks more limited until later. Following this first round, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon during which it will get quite muggy. Highs should range from the low 80s north to the low 90s south but with very high dew points expected the heat indices are likely to top out in the mid and upper 90s around the urban corridor and up to around 105 across portions of Delmarva. So heat headlines may be needed. As we get into the mid to latter part of Saturday afternoon into the evening another round of heavy showers and storms looks to move through ahead of the cold front. It's with this round that we'll see the best chance of severe weather and flash flooding as well. In terms of the parameters, ML CAPE looks likely to top out in the 1000- 2000+ j/kg range with deep layer shear around 35 to 50 knots. This will support a threat for damaging winds and even some potential for supercells which, if these occur, could also produce large hail. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will also be surging to over 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile for this time of year) so there's an increasing potential for very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The greatest threat for this will be for urban, low lying areas, and areas near creeks and streams. Also, any locations that get especially hit hard by both rounds of convection will have a greater potential for flash flooding. Rain amounts of over 2 inches per hour will be possible. Shower/storms should weaken by the late evening into the overnight Saturday night as the cold front moves through. Sunday is now shaping up to be largely dry with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humid levels. Only our southern most zones over portions of the MD eastern shore, southern Delaware, and far southern NJ have chances for some lingering showers or storms but even here the POPs are only 20-30 percent. Marine No marine headlines are in effect through Friday. South-southwest winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon will shift to north-northwest around 10-15 kt tonight following a frontal passage. By Friday morning, north-northeast winds around 10 kt are expected, before settling out of the southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2-3 feet through Friday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the evening, where locally erratic winds are possible. Also, wildfire smoke will continue to filter into the region tonight into Friday. This may cause localized areas of visibility restrictions. Will have to monitor observations closely tonight as denser smoke arrives, where marine dense smoke advisories may become warranted if visibilities drop to 1 mile or less. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday night...South to southwesterly winds near or above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria expected. Expect winds around 15-20 kt with some gusts 20-30 kt. Seas likely 4-6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday...Seas may linger near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels early in the day but otherwise the conditions should be sub SCA. Monday...Fair weather expected with winds under 25 knots and seas around 2-4 feet. Tuesday...Winds and seas may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by late day. Rip Currents... On Friday, north-northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph in the morning will settle out of the east-southeast in the afternoon with a 1 to 2 foot swell around 8 to 9 seconds. Breaking wave heigheights will range between 1 to 2 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. On Saturday, south winds around 10 to 15 mph in the morning, will increase to 15 to 30 mph late in the afternoon with a 2 to 3 foot swell around 9 seconds. Breaking wave heigheights will range between 2 to 4 feet. As a result, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Would not be surprised if an upgrade to HIGH will become necessary for some spots along the Jersey Shore. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...None. DE... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001>004. MD...None. Marine None. |
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