Delaware Bay south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain Late In The Evening. Rain After Midnight.|
|Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Rain Until Late Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Rain Late.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Rain.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft After Midnight.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 3 Ft In The Morning, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
856pm EST Thu Feb 25 2021
High pressure located in the middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon will build eastward. The center of the high is forecast to pass off the New Jersey coast around noontime on Friday before moving out to sea. Weak low pressure approaching from the southwest is expected to pass through our region on Saturday, followed by another area of low pressure from the west on Sunday. A cold front is anticipated to arrive from the northwest early on Monday with high pressure influencing our weather on Tuesday. Low pressure may approach from the west and southwest for Wednesday or Thursday.
Near Term - Through Friday
900 pm update: No changes are necessary to the forecast at this time.
A more zonal mid level flow this afternoon will briefly sharpen later tonight and Friday morning as a short wave trough zips eastward from the Great Lakes region and across the Northeast. As this occurs, surface high pressure will build into and over our area tonight and Friday morning before shifting offshore during the afternoon. This will all result in a continuation of quiet weather as a rather dry low-level airmass remains in place.
The surge in cold air advection has weakened and the thermal advection through tonight is forecast to be mostly neutral. As the aforementioned short wave trough arrives after midnight, a ribbon of increasing moisture around 700 mb overspreads our region especially along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. This is expected to result in a period of increased mid to high level clouds late tonight and early Friday morning before it all shifts to our south and east. Given rather limited moisture below 700 mb especially despite an elongated short wave, no precipitation is expected with just some increase in clouds. A colder night is expected with high pressure arriving, light winds and a dry low-level airmass. Lows mostly in the 20s across the region.
As we go through the day Friday, the short wave trough shifts to our east in the morning followed by a mid level ridge. The latter results in surface high pressure initially over our region shifting to the east. This will result in light winds Friday but they will turn from the east and southeast with time. As the flow aloft backs to more southerly Friday, some warm air advection will begin to arrive from the southwest. The pattern is progressive therefore the ridge quickly shifts east and we then await for the approach of our next system. That system may start to toss some high clouds our way especially the southern areas toward late afternoon. High temperatures Friday should favor the 40s in most places (coolest closet to the coast and in the higher terrain of the northwest zones). Given less mixing and a light onshore flow developing did not go completely with the warmer guidance.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
A series of mid level impulses are forecast to pass overhead in the west southwest flow during the period from Friday night through Sunday. We continue to anticipate a period of precipitation from Friday night into early Saturday afternoon, with some dry air trying to push down from the northwest for late Saturday into Saturday night. Another slug of precipitation is expected for Sunday.
The guidance is trending toward an earlier arrival of the precipitation on Friday night along with an earlier warming of the air aloft. As a result, any snow that falls should accumulate mostly before daybreak on Saturday. The accumulating snow is expected to occur mainly along and to the north of the Interstate 78 Corridor in our region, with amounts up to an inch or two mostly in the elevated terrain. The potential for sleet and freezing rain will be confined mainly to that area, as well, and it should extend from late Friday night into Saturday morning. A light glaze is possible. By noontime on Saturday, the wintry mix should change to all rain. Meanwhile, the precipitation type through the entire event should be all rain from eastern Maryland, Delaware and far southeastern Pennsylvania into southern New Jersey.
Liquid precipitation totals from Friday night into Saturday should favor the quarter to half inch range in our region, so there is little concern for flooding at that time even with the ongoing snowmelt.
Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise into the 50s on the coastal plain, and into the 40s inland as the wind veers from the southeast to the southwest.
A west to north wind from late Saturday into Saturday night should bring some drying and a brief break in the potential for precipitation.
Rain will likely begin to return to our region from the west and southwest toward daybreak on Sunday. The forecast temperature profiles continue to suggest that Sunday's event will be all liquid with no threat of snow or ice, even up north. The axis of heaviest precipitation has been trending northward and it now seems to favor southeastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey. There is the potential for a half to three quarters of an inch of additional rainfall on Sunday. The ground will remain saturated and this added rainfall could lead to some some localized minor flooding, especially where the snowmelt continues.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
A mid level short wave along with its associated surface cold front should kick the moisture off the coast early on Monday. A gradual clearing trend and seasonable temperatures are anticipated. A secondary cold front is expected to arrive on Monday evening and it should bring a reinforcing shot of cold dry air for Tuesday with temperatures dropping below normal at that time.
The model guidance remains in less than ideal agreement for the period from Wednesday into Thursday. We will continue to carry a low or slight chance of precipitation until we get a better handle on the developing weather pattern. Temperatures appear as though they will remain near normal.
Northwest flow will continue to subside into this evening as high pressure builds across our area into Friday. As the high shifts offshore during Friday, the winds while remaining on the lighter side will shift from northeast to east and then southeast. As a result, the conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday.
Outlook... Friday night...No marine headlines are anticipated.
Saturday...Southerly wind 15 to 20 knots gusting near 25 knots.
Saturday night and Sunday...Even though wind gusts should fall below 25 knots, wave heigheights on our ocean waters may remain around 5 feet.
Sunday night and Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
Monday night...A northwest wind 15 to 20 knots may gust around 25 knots.
Tuesday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.