Marine Weather Net

Delaware Bay south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ431 Forecast Issued: 102 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Scattered Tstms With A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Fri...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds.
Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
Sun Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
148am EDT Thu May 23 2024

Synopsis
High pressure to the southeast of our region will move further out to sea overnight. A cold front will approach the area on Thursday before crossing through the area on Thursday night. The front will stall to our south on Friday before lifting back north on Saturday as a warm front. Another cold front moves through on Sunday, with a stronger system impacting the area on Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday.

Near Term - Through Today
A closed low centered just north of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward through Thursday night. Surface low pressure will also travel with it, and an associated cold front will cross our area Thursday night. Some convection is expected ahead of this cold front and with with a surface trough.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the lee-side trough and convective MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) that developed earlier today have weakened somewhat as the move mostly to the north of our area. Widely scattered showers are still possible overnight, so we'll keep some slight chc/chance probability of precipitation in the grids.

Recent guidance continues to hint that a convectively induced shortwave (or MCV) could result in additional convection late tonight and towards dawn Thu. The placement of this is less certain, however there is some potential for a round of some showers and thunderstorms to start Thursday morning. This activity if it were to be realized should be sub- severe with some decrease in the instability and more stable boundary layer. The extent and timing of morning convection will have an influence on the rest of Thursday as the cold front arrives. An overall trend in the guidance is for the modestly increased southwesterly mid level flow to occur in the morning with this flow weakening through the afternoon. High level winds remain stronger, however it is the lower winds that are forecast to be weaker. The amount of instability that is forecast is enough to sustain thunderstorm development through the afternoon, however the main forcing is well removed from our area given the main trough aloft is well to our north. If the morning convection does not occur or it is much more isolated, then the model forecast soundings show a low-level inverted-V profile developing as more boundary layer heating will occur. At least some showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, and there remains the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. Locally damaging winds is the main hazard, especially if storms are able to become more organized such as in a cluster or a line segment. Given the weaker wind field overall that is forecast, the severe thunderstorm risk remains at Marginal or a level 1 out of 5.

Any showers and thunderstorms are expected to be weakening and/or moving offshore Thursday night as the cold front shifts to our east. Some drier air then arrives later Thursday night in the wake of the cold front, however prior to that patchy fog cannot be ruled out especially where rain occurs and if the cloud cover clears enough.

Short Term - Tonight Through Saturday Night
The cold front will continue to move offshore and stall south of the area on Friday. A few residual showers may linger along the shore in the morning but for the most part all precipitation should be over. Still will mention a slight chance of a shower across the Delmarva in the afternoon, but this is becoming increasingly less likely. Skies will clear behind the front as dewpoints fall back into the 50s. Overall, Friday is shaping up to be a pretty pleasant day to kick off the holiday weekend with temps in the low to mid 80s, with shore points in the 70s.

Quiet weather will continue into Friday night with clear skies and light winds. We should be able to radiate pretty well initially, however clouds will increase from south to north later in the night. This will limit the amount of cooling late, resulting in warmer than normal lows ranging in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Saturday, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to lift back northward across the area as a warm front with the main low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes. Basis current trends amongst forecast guidance, it does appear the first half of Saturday will remain dry. However, as we progress through the afternoon, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east. For locations along the shore, precipitation may hold off entirely until Saturday evening, although it will be pretty cloudy most of the day. This system will be a rather quick mover so while Saturday night does appear to be wet, all precipitation should come to an end by early Sunday. Aided by warm air advection, highs on Saturday should reach again into the low to mid 80s despite cloud cover with cooler temps along the coast. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
After precipitation wanes on Sunday morning, a weak cold front will pass through the area, however the front will be slowing down and stalling either over or again just south of the area. Sunday for now does appear to be mostly dry behind the front with partial sunshine. Beyond Sunday, the weather pattern becomes unsettled as a stronger low pressure system develops back over the central CONUS. Another warm front will likely pass over the area on Monday with a potentially stronger cold front crossing the area Monday night into Tuesday. Will have to watch this closely in the coming days as some of the analog based and machine learning guidance suggest severe weather may be on the table. But this is quite a few days away. After the cold front passes, shower chances should continue through the middle of next week thanks to several waves/impulses aloft. For now, will carry a chance of showers into the middle of next week.

In terms of temperatures for the long term period, Sunday appears to be a few degrees above average, Monday and Tuesday close to average, with Wednesday looking below average.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday night, however a few gusty thunderstorms will be possible especially Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook... Friday through Monday
No marine headlines expected. Winds will periodically gust up to 15-20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday night and for Sunday night into Monday.

Rip Currents... S to SW winds will average 5 to 10 mph on Thursday along with breaking waves around 2 feet. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches for Thursday. However, showers and thunderstorms are likely, and may be capable of strong wind gusts and hail.

On Friday, winds will once again be out of the S to SW at 5 to 10 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches for Friday. Although there is a slight chance for showers, thunderstorms are not expected.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Astronomical tides will be elevated this week with a Full Moon on Thursday, May 23. Spotty minor coastal flooding will be possible, especially for the back bays, around the times of the evening high tide cycle, which will be the higher of the two tide cycles, going into the end of this week.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
None.