Delaware Bay south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Showers.
|Wed...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.
|Wed Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Showers In The Evening.
|Thu...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
|Sat...Se Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
351pm EST Tuesday Feb 27 2024
A warm front lifts precipitation through the region today and tonight. A strong cold front approaches Wednesday then crosses through Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday then fleets away on Friday. An unsettled pattern develops for the weekend and potentially the early part of next week.
Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
Our first round of many showers have now entered into our eastern PA and Delmarva zones with these showers overspreading the remainder of the forecast area through the evening. This will set the stage for a very mild but unsettled night for tonight as additional rounds of showers continue in association with a secondary warm front lifting through the area as deepening low pressure consolidates while moving through the Great Lakes. Rain amounts through the overnight don't look to be too significant, though, with generally just a few tenths of an inch or less except upwards of a half to three quarters of an inch or so over the southern Poconos due in part to orographic effects. As mentioned, it will be a very mild night for this time of year with lows mostly in the 50s except 40s over the southern Poconos and also right near the coast.
A strong cold front will approach the region Wednesday before arriving on our doorstep by the evening hours and cross through Wednesday night. Light to moderate rain is expected Wednesday with rain rates increasing as the front draws closer. Periods of heavy rain may be noticed with frontal passage Wednesday night. Overall, total rainfall amounts across the region should not be all that impactful, generally 0.5-1.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. However, our northern most areas (i.e., Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA, Sussex County NJ) may see higher total amounts than the rest of the region. It is worth mentioning that WPC does have these areas included in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall.
Wind will likely be the greatest impact with this event. Even ahead of the front, wind gusts could reach 40-45 mph across our coastal areas and Delmarva Wednesday. Winds will be even more potent after frontal passage for some locations. Our western most counties in PA could see wind gusts around 50 mph Wednesday night. As a result, Wind Advisories were issued for our westernmost PA counties and northwest NJ.
At this time, the severe thunderstorm potential for this system will remain low. Instability on model soundings was not looking all that impressive with this forecast. A couple rumbles of thunder remain possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, but that should be the extent of it. With all that said, we will nonetheless keep a close eye on new high res guidance as it arrives. Despite the lack of instability, with abundant shear and strong mechanical lifting from the frontal passage, it will not take much instability to notably increase our severe potential. Theoretically, an unscheduled break in the clouds ahead of the front in the afternoon, for instance, could result in an unexpected source for instability ahead of the frontal passage.
Though there will be potent cold air advection behind the front, pure snow is not expected on the back of this front for more of the region. Some wet snowflakes may be observed in some locations as precipitation ceases, however, this will not amount to much. The only areas which may see some accumulating snow on the backside of the front is the Poconos, around 1 inch or less, thanks to light snow showers developing over the Great Lakes and drifting over. Cannot rule out a few isolated flurries for the remaining higher elevations around the Lehigh Valley and northwest NJ. Overnight lows are expected in the low 20s to around 30.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday
Thursday looks dry with high pressure building in from the west. It will be a bit blustery in the wake of the departing front, with northwest winds behind the front gusting to 25-35 MPH up to 40 MPH. Winds diminish in the evening as the gradient weakens and high pressure slides overhead. Highs on Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler compared to Wednesday, generally topping off in the upper 30s/low 40s. With the gusty winds, wind chills will hover around freezing with upper teens/low 20s wind chills in the higher elevations. Lows on Thursday Night will get down into the 20s.
The below normal temperatures do not last for long as the surface high will quickly move offshore by Friday. This will result in south/southwesterly return flow setting up and temperatures get back to near normal. Conditions should stay dry through the day, with temperatures getting back into the upper 40s/low 50s. Cloud cover increases through the day as the next system approaches.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
A lot of uncertainty regarding the extended forecast. Stuck close to the NBM overall due to the low confidence nature of the forecast. The deterministic guidance remains split with the 12z GFS/GEM showing a faster and more progressive low pressure system sliding by to the south, which would bring rain on Saturday, with the highest amounts within the southern portion of the area. This faster/more progressive solution would result in a drier Sunday/early part of the week.
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has been painting a different picture for a few days now, which is slower, keeping the area of low pressure meandering off the coast. This would result in periods of light to steady rain from Saturday through the early portion of the week. Not a total washout by any means, but unsettled nonetheless. There is some support for this within the GEFS/CMCE ensemble guidance. Overall, the going forecast has the highest Probability of Precipitation on Saturday (40-60%) with highest south and around 20-40% Sunday/Monday. Details should become more clear as get closer to the end of the week.
What we have higher confidence in is above normal temperatures returning. Highs within the extended are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s with some low 60s mixed in. Lows will generally be in the 40s, but some spots could stay above the 50 degree mark. For the beginning of March, most locations look to be around 8 to 10 degrees above normal or so.
Winds and seas will continue to ramp up through the evening and overnight period Tuesday night with Gale conditions expected overnight over the ocean waters. For the Delaware Bay, Small Craft Advisory begins at 7pm this evening. Showers are also expected over all waters tonight.
Poor marine conditions will only worsen into the day Wednesday, with Gales continuing for the coastal waters. Seas build 6-11 feet. Gales expected to develop by late afternoon for the Delaware Bay as well.
Outlook... Wednesday night...Gales expected across the coastal waters and Delaware Bay.
Thursday...Gale Warning goes until 15z for all ocean zones for northwesterly winds 20-30 kt and gusts 30-35 kt. Winds diminish in the afternoon below Gale levels but near/above 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.
Thursday Night..No marine headlines anticipated. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday through Friday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. South/southwest winds 10-20 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday...No marine headlines expected. East/southeast winds around 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night through Sunday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. North/northeast winds 10-20 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...Wind Advisory from 6pm Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102. NJ...Wind Advisory from 6pm Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for NJZ001-007. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 6pm EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431. Gale Warning from 6pm Wednesday to 9am EST Thursday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.