Delaware Bay south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Early This Evening.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Fri...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Then 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
713pm EST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
Higher pressure builds in behind the cold front tonight, ushering in colder temperatures. High pressure continues dominating tomorrow and Friday. Cold front looks to approach and push through Saturday. High pressure again builds in for Sunday. Weak boundary may pass through Sunday night/Monday morning. Unsettled weather looks to take hold Monday and Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Cold front has now passed through the forecast area and continues to move offshore as drier, colder air begins to fill in behind it. Can't rule out a rouge sprinkle this evening, but dry conditions will prevail. Wind gusts will decrease somewhat through the overnight hours as these were partially driven by the strong low-level jet that was out ahead of the front. Gusts will remain around 25 to 35 mph through the day Thursday with a strong surface gradient driving the west-northwest flow as the low pressure system exits to the east-northeast. High pressure will begin to build in Thursday resulting in clearing skies. Low temperatures Thursday morning are expected to bottom out in the low 30s before rebounding to the low 40s for high temperatures Thursday afternoon.
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
High pressure builds across the central and southern Mid Atlantic region, while nosing its way northward across our area Thursday night. The high will shift offshore Friday and out to sea Friday night. With high pressure in control or nearby Thursday night through Friday night, fair conditions are expected through this period. Thursday night will be a cold night, with high pressure affecting the area, leading to clear and light wind night allowing for good radiational cooling. However, with return flow developing Friday into Friday night, temperatures will begin to moderate.
By Saturday, strong return flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing temperatures to warm significantly. Temperatures 10- 15 degrees above normal are expected before a cold front makes temperatures drop again. Also ahead of the cold front, we expect a period of rainfall to develop during the morning hours Saturday as enhanced moisture and lift will move across the area as a couple of short waves move into the area. After an initial area of rainfall in the morning, there could be a break in the rainfall before the front moves through during the afternoon, bringing a second round of shower. Once the front moves through, the showers are expected to end. Winds during the day Saturday will increase after daybreak, and should become gusty 20-30 mph by late morning into the afternoon, with another bust of gusts as the front comes through.
For Saturday night, dry weather is expected behind the front. Temperatures will also begin to drop as cold air advection develops. Winds will likely remain gusty 20-25 mph, at least occasionally, through much of the night.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
The period will begin Sunday with surface high pressure over the region. While holding firm through the day, this surface high will look to push offshore during the Sunday night period. There is some indication among guidance today that a shortwave/weak front may pass through the region during the later half of the Sunday night period as the surface high continues to push offshore. Have included slight chance Probability of Precipitation for 06-12z Monday to indicate this potential. Following this time frame, guidance continues to indicate a warm front developing to the south moving northwards some for the beginning of the week. This front looks to be able to swing precipitation northwards into the region for the first part of the week. Slight chance Probability of Precipitation are in the forecast for the more southern areas 12-18z Monday. 18z Monday until 00z Wednesday, chance Probability of Precipitation are included throughout the region as the warm front slowly brings precipitation northwards. There is indication that a cold front may pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday but confidence regarding this frontal feature remains low for now.
Given the overall synoptic pattern that will be in place Monday/Tuesday, i.e., mainly a warm front from the south swinging northwards while a cold surface high develops north of the northeastern CONUS, some funneling of cold air and cold air damming looks to be possible Monday and Tuesday. Given this pattern and the ensemble members which suggest colder solutions today, I have included frozen precipitation types (i.e., rain/snow mix) in the forecast for the more northwestern areas. Above average temperatures are possible Tuesday as warm air is advected into the region.
Gale to near Gale conditions have been observed Wednesday afternoon and thus the Gale Warning for both the Atlantic Coastal waters and the Delaware Bay remains unchanged. The southerly flow that has been in place for much of Wednesday will shift this evening behind the cold front to become more westerly. Gales may weaken slightly but are expected to continue into the overnight hours after the frontal passage. Gusts will decrease below gales to Small Craft Advisory criteria level by Thursday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to persist through much of the day Thursday. Seas of 6 to 9 feet expected Wednesday evening decreasing to 4 to 6 feet on Thursday.
Outlook... Thursday night-Friday...Conditions fall below advisory levels Thursday evening and remain below advisory levels through Friday.
Friday night...Conditions return to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday night.
Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, possible gale force.
Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue.
Sunday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may linger in the morning hours but generally no headlines are expected during the day.
Sunday night...No headlines expected.
Monday...No headlines expected.
Monday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Gale Warning until 6am EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-450>455.