Marine Weather Net

Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ454 Forecast Issued: 615 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Se Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Light Swells.
Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Se Swell Around 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Light Swells.
Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Se Swell Around 2 Ft At 6 Seconds In The Morning, Becoming Light.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Light Swells.
Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Light Swells.
Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. N Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Light Swells. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Sat...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Rain Likely.
Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
515am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Synopsis
A weak cold front passes through the region this evening. Sprawling high pressure then builds in from the north and west and will spread over the Northeast through the end of the week. The remnant low of what is currently Hurricane Ian looks to affect the area this weekend and into early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Generally quiet weather will continue through the midweek period. A longwave trough remains draped over the Eastern US, with a few shortwaves rotating through the northern part of our area. At the surface, a weak cold front will approach through the day. Not expecting much from the passage of the cold front as atmospheric moisture is scarce overall. Most of the area will stay dry with stratocumulus clouds developing, however there could be a light shower in the Poconos. Kept slight chance Probability of Precipitation in for that region, with non-mentionable PoPS elsewhere. Tranquil conditions are expected for the overnight hours, with the cold front sliding offshore by Thursday morning.

High temperatures for today will be slightly below normal for late Sept. Expecting 60s throughout the area with upper 50s in the Poconos. A few spots from Philadelphia on south could touch 70, but thinking a cool early Fall day overall. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s (Poconos/Lehigh Valley/North Jersey, rural areas of South Jersey) to low 50s (Delmarva/Philly metro/NJ and DE coast).

Short Term - Thursday Through Friday
High pressure will take control following the frontal passage on Wednesday night. The mid-level longwave trough will push off to the east as well by Thursday morning, with zonal flow/weak ridging moving in. This will result in a quiet end to the week, and Thursday/Friday look rather similar. Each day will be dry with highs in the 60s, with some spots touching the low 70s. High cloud cover will increase through the end of the week as the remnants of Ian move further north. Expecting some stratocumulus to develop as well in some spots.

Thursday night into Friday could feature quite the spread in overnight lows. Cloud cover associated with remnants of Ian could keep temperatures higher within parts of Delmarva, while mostly clear skies and light winds up north in the Poconos could result in efficient radiational cooling and lows in the upper 30s. Ended up blending the NBM 25th Percentile/NBM and adjusted temperatures up where cloud cover should be present. Thinking low 50s in the urban corridor, along the coast, and in parts of Delmarva, upper 30s in the Poconos and higher terrain of NW NJ, and 40s everywhere else.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
The overall trend with the 00Z suite of model guidance is to bring what remains of what is currently Hurricane Ian into the Southeast and Tennessee Valley on Saturday where it will meander over the weekend before slowly lifting away from the Mid- Atlantic coast early in the new week. This trend is a bit faster than previous runs, and now most of the weekend looks to be wet.

High pressure over the Northeast lifts to the north and merges with high pressure over central Canada building towards the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. This high slowly builds east and moves over the Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday.

With the main high now north of the region, this allows the remnant low of Ian to be able to lift to the north a bit earlier than models previously indicated. This low will be over the Southeast, generally around northeast Georgia and western South Carolina by Saturday morning. Bands of rain spread north along the Atlantic Seaboard starting late Friday night, but precipitation continues to spread north during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, although the remnant low of Ian tracks a bit to the west towards the Tennessee Valley, a secondary low seems to split off it and tracks towards the Mid-Atlantic and east of New Jersey Saturday night through Sunday. The remnant low of Ian then slowly works its way through the Mid-Atlantic and offshore Monday through Tuesday before departing Tuesday night.

Latest NBM Probability of Precipitation guidance mainly has chance Probability of Precipitation for most of the northern half of the forecast area with an area of likely Probability of Precipitation across portions of southeast New Jersey and into Delmarva. Based on latest model trends, think this may be a bit underdone. Will keep likely PoPs, but will expand the likely Probability of Precipitation through much of New Jersey and Delmarva, and into Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs Saturday through Sunday, winding down Sunday night.

Will have to monitor development of this system. Currently, 1 to 1.5 inches Quantitative Precipitation Forecast possible across portions of southern New Jersey and Delmarva Friday night and Saturday. If latest model trends hold, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible in these areas Sunday through Monday. This could result in localized flooding, and a flood watch may be needed. Although the heaviest rain currently looks to stay in the far southern and eastern portions of the area, will have to monitor trends to see if the heavier rain spreads northward.

Gusty easterly winds will develop starting on Saturday and lasting into at least Monday, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with 20 to 30 mph gusts.

Marine
No marine headlines are anticipated over the next 24 hours. Expect Northwest winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook... Thursday through Thursday night... Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. North/northeast winds around 15-20 kts, gusting up to 25 kts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Friday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. Seas build toward SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, getting near 5 feet by daybreak Friday. Northeast winds around 15-20 kts, gusting up to 25 kts.

Saturday through Sunday...E winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. Seas building to 8 to 10 ft over the weekend as well. VSBY restrictions in rain.

Rip Currents... Gentle winds and a light medium period swell will promote just LOW risk for rip currents for Wednesday.

On Thursday, winds will increase as strong high pressure builds to the north. A fresh NE wind will enhance the seas so we will forecast a MODERATE risk for rips on Thursday.

As a reminder, the SRF Forecast product will cease after September 30th.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
None.