Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. Rain.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Ne With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Evening.|
|Wed...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft In The Evening, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354pm EST Monday Nov 11 2019
Developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move northeast tonight into Tuesday as it tracks through Pennsylvania towards New England. This will drag a strong cold front through the region Tuesday morning. Cold high pressure is expected to follow for the mid week period. A warm front approaching from the west is then forecast to pass through our region on Thursday night with a cold front arriving from the northwest on Friday night. High pressure should move from eastern Ontario to Canada's Maritime Provinces over the weekend with low pressure developing off the southeast coast. This low is forecast to move north over the western Atlantic early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
The deepening H5 trough moving across the Midwest today will continue to aid in the development of a surface low that will track out of the Ohio Valley and across Central Pennsylvania tonight. As the low tracks to our west into upstate New York, it will draw a strong cold front across the region. Temperatures have dropped quite drastically to our west across Ohio, so expect the same trend as the front crosses our region early this morning. By 8:00 AM, the front should be somewhere near or along the Delaware River.
Prefontal precipitation will begin to overspread the region just after midnight, moving into the Lehigh Valley by 1:00 AM. The front is expected to be frontogenetic as it passes the area (at least in the 925-850 layer) with instability above the level of enhanced positive frontogenesis (as deduced from Saturated Geostrophic Potential Vorticity). Just behind the front enhanced UL Divergence associated with an approaching 150kt jet will nose into the area Tuesday morning, and potentially keep the precipitation going for a few hours after the front passes. Deep layer moisture will not be overly impressive, but PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do approach an inch or so just ahead of the boundary. Given these factors, guidance is in fairly good agreement that total liquid amounts with this system will generally be in the 0.1-0.25 inch range, with some locally higher spots possible (the Poconos and Delmarva being the best candidates for > 0.25 inch totals).
Precipitation should remain all rain through the 6am period when looking at forecast surface temperatures and soundings. The exception is the Poconos, where the first changeover is expected to begin.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
After 8:00 AM, lingering precipitation is expected to begin changing over to light snow. There could be a few heavier bands across the Poconos, but given the warm temperatures today and the timing of the changeover being during daytime, accumulation is not expected outside of the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ. A quick dusting is possible across the Lehigh Valley and into Northern New Jersey, but this is not expected to cause significant impacts. Elsewhere into the Philly Metro, a few wet snowflakes or a quick snow shower is likely late morning into the early afternoon.
By 4:00 PM, precipitation should begin to move offshore, with conditions beginning to clear after that. Winds will be the big story with wind gusts nearing 25 mph. Temperatures will be falling through the day with, thus the high is not expected to occur in the afternoon under a normal diurnal trend. Temperatures will be falling from the 40s into the 30s and even 20s in the Poconos through the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will become quite cold as well, dropping into the low 20s and teens. Wind Chills will also be a factor into Tuesday night with values into the teens and single digits across much of the region.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Wednesday through Thursday... The main story for this period will be the cold...at least to start the period for Wednesday. The strong arctic high responsible for the cold will crest over the region Wednesday resulting in generally sunny skies and light winds but unseasonably cold temperatures. Highs will range from the 20s across the southern Poconos, where there will also be a bit more cloud cover and possibly a few flurries, to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
The center of the high with its associated arctic airmass will begin to shift offshore through Wednesday night but it will still be dominant enough over the area to result in another mainly clear and very cold night. Lows by Thursday morning should range from the mid teens over the southern Poconos to the upper teens to the mid 20s farther south. The urban corridor should generally see lows in the low to mid 20s.
For Thursday, a disturbance in the upper levels will approach from the west and this will result in increasing mid and high level cloudiness through the day. However there won't be much of a reflection of this disturbance at the surface as it moves into ridging still holding on over the area so don't expect any precip. Temperatures will also warm by a good 10 or so degrees compared to Wednesday as the winds turn southerly.
Thursday night through Monday... An upper level wave moves through Thursday night into early Friday and as this occurs it will tap into some moisture off the coast. This could bring a little light rain to the southern Delmarva into far southern NJ. Otherwise it should be mainly dry through Friday. Friday looks to be a little warmer than Thursday with highs in the 40s to low 50s.
The forecast becomes a bit trickier heading through next weekend. Another cold front moves through Friday night with high pressure building into the north Saturday. This will result in fair weather with sunshine for Saturday but temperatures about 10 degrees colder compared to Friday. However there will be a slow moving low pressure system off the southeast coast and some of our guidance is indicating moisture from this could make its way into our region by Sunday. Any precipitation that occurs Sunday looks to be mainly in the form of rain and light with the best chances being for areas S/E of the I- 95 corridor. Rain chances increase Sunday night into next Monday as the low looks to move north over the western Atlantic. The marine air with this system should also moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
Tonight and Tuesday
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through the afternoon with southwest winds through the morning, switching to northwest in the late morning around 20 knots. Gusts to 25 to 30 knots are possible. Seas from 3 to 5 feet, especially tomorrow morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night...Gale force gusts are likely with northwest winds from 20 to 30 knots. Seas from 3 to 6 feet.
OUTLOOK... Wednesday...NW winds 20 to 25 with gusts to 30 knots early in the day will diminish with time and expect winds and seas to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by mid afternoon.
Wednesday night through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
Friday night - Saturday...N/NE winds increase Friday night behind a cold front and could reach Gale force overnight Friday night into Saturday.
Here are the record low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday:
Climate Site Nov 13 Allentown 18 in 1996 Atlantic City 22 in 2001, 1996, and 1995 Atl. City Marina 24 in 1920 Georgetown 21 in 1986 Mount Pocono 12 in 1911 Philadelphia 24 in 1986 Reading 21 in 1976 Trenton 23 in 1920, 1911 Wilmington 18 in 1911
Climate Site Nov 14 Allentown 17 in 1986 Atlantic City 15 in 1986 Atl. City Marina 23 in 1874 Georgetown 22 in 1986, 1950 Mount Pocono 5 in 1905 Philadelphia 19 in 1986 Reading 16 in 1986 Trenton 20 in 1905 Wilmington 20 in 1986, 1911
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Gale Warning from 6pm Tuesday to 6am EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.