Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Late.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Morning, Then Rain In The Late Morning And Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Decreasing To 35 Kt Late. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds. Rain.|
|Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft In The Morning, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
931pm EST Sat Nov 16 2019
High Pressure north of the area will move offshore on Sunday while south of the area a deepening low will lift slowly northeastward off the Carolina coast. By Tuesday morning, the low should progress northeast to the Canadian Maritimes and surface high pressure will build into the southeastern US for the middle of next week. This high pressure slides offshore on Thursday and a Great Lakes low and associated cold front will likely impact the area late next week.
Near Term - Until 7am Sunday Morning
930pm Update: No significant changes made to the forecast. Some light rain showers indicated on radar off and on over the past few hours. This trend is likely to continue across southern Delaware and extreme southern NJ through daybreak, so I added a mention of this in the forecast. Very low dewpoints inland will continue to rise slowly overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.
630pm Update: No changes made to the forecast with this update. Winds have diminished somewhat and gusts have come down away from the immediate coastline. A cold and dry night in store for most (away from the coast) with a persistent northeast wind around 10 mph (higher near the coast) and increasing clouds toward daybreak.
.SHORT TERM /7am SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6pm SUNDAY/... By Sunday morning, the aforementioned coastal low will be much better organized as it becomes vertically stacked with the closed 500 mb low moving overhead of the surface low. Gradual intensification of the low is forecast as it moves northeastward over the Atlantic with a minimum pressure dropping to somewhere around 990 mb or so by Monday morning. There is also some indication that some form of a surface trough or Norlun Trough may begin to form tomorrow morning as the surface low moves closer towards the mid- Atlantic, allowing for an earlier onset of rain and rain showers across the New Jersey coast. The EC appears to indicate this potential a little more strongly than the GFS at this point. This isn't expected to have much impact on the forecast, but did adjust the Probability of Precipitation accordingly. All in all, rain will push northward Sunday, affecting Delmarva and the immediate coast first, but eventually overspreading much of the forecast area by 1-3 pm, especially along and east of the I-95 corridor given the track of the low. Total rainfall amounts Sunday will be on the lighter side with most places only seeing up to a quarter to maybe a half of an inch along the immediate coast if rain moves in early enough.
Winds will remain similar, if not stronger than today with gusty northeast winds from 25 to 30 mph possible, and higher gusts from 45 to 50 mph in the Wind Advisory areas near and along the coast. With highs in the low to mid 40s, this will lead to another chilly day, especially once the rain begins.
Another factor with this storm will be the freezing rain potential. While not a widespread concern, forecast soundings suggest light freezing rain is possible across Sussex County, NJ and into the southern Poconos. Timing of this will be highly dependent on how fast a vort max moving in from the west amplifies the longer wave synoptic trough associated with the coastal storm. The very dry air as we have seen today will also be a factor, with rain holding off until Sunday night in these areas as the lower atmosphere moistens. Evaporative cooling associated with such process may also aid in cooling the column. More on this in the Long Term discussion.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday
Overview: The coastal storm that has been impacting the area this weekend will slowly progress east of the area Sunday night into Monday, before finally completely clearing the area Tuesday morning. A couple of northern-branch shortwaves will pass through the area on the backside of this system, with the first arriving Monday night, and the second Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High Pressure builds into the southeastern US mid-week, however this looks to be short-lived as another shortwave and associated surface low/fronts will approach the area Friday.
Sunday night through Tuesday morning... Unfortunately overall confidence regarding precipitation potential, amounts, and (to an extent) type remain lower than usual over this period. The first chance of precipitation will be with some warm-advective precipitation wrapping around the north-side of the approaching coastal low Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance is not very generous with the inland penetration of this precipitation and therefore generally went with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts around 1-2 tenths near the coast with amounts only in the hundredths further inland (with some areas potentially not receiving any precipitation at all. The energy associated with the kicker shortwave approaching the area Monday afternoon into Monday night does look more robust with the 12Z cycle so raised PoPs/Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (mainly over the northwest) in that time period (although dry advection will temper some of the precipitation potential).
There still looks to be some conditional (on precipitation occurring) FZRA potential for areas primarily north of I-80 (with a more outside chance between I-78 and I-80) Monday morning. At this time have a few hundredths of ice accumulation primarily in the Poconos and Sussex county NJ, but confidence is too low regarding Probability of Precipitation to initiate any winter weather headlines at this time. Can't rule out some freezing rain potential in these areas Monday night/Tuesday morning as well, but confidence remains low.
Tuesday through Thursday... A relatively quiet period should prevail through the mid-week with maxes generally running within a few degrees of climo (generally upper 40s to lower 50s), although temperatures will likely warm up a bit on Thursday as southerly flow increases. Can't rule out some light precipitation Wednesday morning in association with a mid-level wave, but at this point this looks sufficiently moisture-starved to not be much of a concern.
Thursday night through Saturday... The next storm system approaches the area towards the end of next week, but the details remain uncertain regarding timing the associated cold front/precipitation. Much will depend upon the interaction of various northern branch disturbances and energy associated with cutoff lows over the desert southwest. Consequently broadbrushed Chc. PoPs and used a simple p-type algorithm based on temperatures for the Friday/Saturdayam period.
Tonight... Gale force wind gusts with northeasterly winds up to 40 knots to continue through the overnight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the Atlantic zones along with the southern Delaware Bay. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the northern Delaware Bay through the overnight an into Sunday with northeasterly winds gusting to 30 knots. Seas building from 8 to 12 feet, especially for the southern Atlantic zones and from 3 to 5 feet across the Delaware Bay.
Sunday...Gale Warning continues for the Atlantic zones and southern Delaware Bay with northeasterly winds gusting to 40 knots. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the day for the northern Delaware Bay with northeasterly winds gusting to 35 knots. Seas building from 9 to 12 feet across all the Atlantic zones and from 3 to 5 feet across the Delaware Bay.
Outlook... Sunday night/Monday morning... Gale-force gusts likely continue, but begin to decrease into Monday morning, Seas remain elevated at over 10 ft on the Atlantic waters.
Monday afternoon into Monday night... Northerly-Northwesterly gusts decrease below Gale force by early Monday afternoon, and then decrease below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by Monday night. Seas generally 8-10 ft Monday during the day, and decreasing to 5-7 ft by Monday night.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.
Wednesday...Generally sub-advisory winds/seas expected however, northwest winds may approach advisory criteria by late afternoon.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Deep low pressure off the southeast and Middle Atlantic coasts combined with high pressure to our north will maintain a strong northeast wind along the shores of Delaware and New Jersey through Sunday night. The expected onshore flow will affect five consecutive high tide cycles and should result in another lengthy period with the threat of tidal flooding, similar to what occurred back around the 10th through 12th of October.
We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for moderate flooding on Sunday and Monday for tidal areas of Delaware and New Jersey. While locations up and down the Delaware and New Jersey coasts could see moderate flooding, widespread moderate flooding is most likely to occur from about Barnegat Inlet south. The daytime high tides will be the higher of the two daily high tides.
As we get closer to Sunday and Monday, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued for the tidal part of the Delaware River.
Also, minor flooding is possible up into the upper part of Chesapeake Bay on Sunday and Monday evenings, so an advisory may also become necessary along the upper eastern shore as well.
The strong and persistent onshore wind will likely result in significant beach erosion along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Warning from 8am Sunday to 5pm EST Monday for NJZ012>014-020>027. Wind Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for NJZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning from 10am Sunday to 6pm EST Monday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 8am Sunday to 5pm EST Monday for DEZ002>004. Wind Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Warning from 10am Sunday to 6pm EST Monday for DEZ001. MD...None.
Gale Warning until 6am EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Monday for ANZ430.