Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. E Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Early. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. E Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. E Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. E Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Ne Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. E Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming E. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1020am EDT Fri September 29 2023 Synopsis Low pressure developing off the North Carolina coast will move northeastward today, bringing more rain. This system will move east of the area slowly on Saturday with high pressure regaining full control Sunday into the middle of next week. Near Term - Through Tonight 1010 AM...Low pressure, which merged with part of the left over remnants of Ophelia yesterday, is currently centered southeast of Cape Hatteras and will move northeastward slowly today and tonight. Inverted trough/coastal front extends northward just off the Atlantic Coast across the Delaware and NJ shores. Strong upper- trough/closed low will move slowly toward us through the day into tonight, helping to squeeze out plenty of moisture with a focus being on the inverted trough/coastal front. Suffice it to say, the northeastern/eastern parts of the CWA (County Warning Area) can expect plenty of rain through tonight, with lesser amounts further west. 0Z HREF had high end amounts across our NJ zones in the 5-inch range by around sunset or so, with a bit more possible thereafter, though looks like the bulk will be down by then. Guidance depicts a sharp gradient on the west side, so our western/southwestern zones from around Philly and points W/SW may not see much more rain today. The Flood Watch remains unchanged...significant flooding is possible wherever those 5+ inch totals occur with the best chance of this occuring being for areas over eastern Ocean, Monmouth, and Middlesex Counties. Otherwise, easterly flow will keep it cloudy and cool today, with temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most...though, southern Delaware and the NJ shore might actually break into the warm sector, and they could nudge towards 70. Temps don't drop much tonight though the rain will diminish, with 50s common and near 60 along the coast. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night A few showers could still linger as we move into the daytime hours of Saturday, especially along the coast, as our offshore low takes its time moving away. Cloud coverage will likely linger through much of the afternoon as well, though some areas north and west could see clouds break and brief peeks of sunshine before sunset during the evening. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. Drier air will finally take control by Saturday night, with clouds clearing throughout the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes and provide a well- earned quiet and dry Sunday. Mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the 70s and a northerly breeze. Clear skies at night will cool temperatures off into the mid 50s to low 60s. Long Term - Monday Through Thursday A much quieter period next week with a strong upper level ridge building over the central US and a strong surface high pressure system gaining control across the Midwest and into the Northeast. What will greet us should be a stretch of nice and quiet days with mostly sunny skies. Monday through Wednesday will likely bring a period of temperatures around 5 degrees or so above normal. Currently have highs in the upper 70s/low 80s with low 70s in the higher elevations and coastal spots. Temperatures will be closer to normal on Thursday ahead of our next system that will arrive at the end of our work week. Marine Small Craft Advisory conditions continue today and tonight with new coastal low moving northeast to our southeast. Winds occasionally will top 30 kts but seas will the main factor with waves of 5-7 ft on the ocean. Outlook... Saturday...Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters through Saturday. Gale conditions possible, but confidence too low to warrant a Gale Watch at this time. Northeast winds around 20- 25 kt and gusts around 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Saturday Night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely into the evening with winds diminishing overnight. North/Northeast winds around 15-20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Sunday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. North/Northeast winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Monday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. North/Northeast winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Tuesday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may linger, but confidence is low. North- northeast winds 10-15 kt turn east-southeast late. Seas 3 to 5 feet early, diminishing to 3 to 4 feet late. Rip Currents... We will maintain a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Saturday. Breaking waves should be 3 to 5 feet today, becoming 4 to 6 feet Saturday with a medium period easterly swell. An underlying long period southeast swell may arrive today. The wind is expected to be from the northeast at 15 to 20 MPH today, becoming 20 to 25 MPH on Saturday. Hydrology A Flood Watch remains in effect for our northern/central NJ counties, basically Burlington-Ocean northward. The moisture is being brought to you by a "new" low which is tapping into what was left behind by Ophelia. Rainfall amounts across portions of the region have remained relatively steady in the guidance over the last 24 hours. While deterministic solutions still vary in placement a bit, there is enough confidence in the ensembles to continue the inherited Watch as-is. In terms of amounts, confidence remains that we'll see 2 to 4 inches across at least parts of the area within the Watch, possibly double that. In terms of timing, moderate to heavy rain is now here, and may persist across the Watch area into early Saturday. In terms of any potential impacts, if the heavier rains come to fruition today, pockets of urban and low-lying flooding will commence where the heaviest rains fall. This runoff will then lead to smaller streams causing them to rise and potentially leave their banks. The smaller streams will then drain into a few of our larger rivers. At this time, the Millstone River at Blackwells Mills is looking at minor flooding Saturday night as is the Passaic River at Pine Brook on Sunday. We also will be seeing rises further south in NJ across the Rancocas basin with the north Branch Rancocas forecast to go into flood stage. For this reason, Burlington County was added to the Flood Watch with the afternoon update. If you live in flood prone areas and are included in the Watch, continue to keep an eye on forecasts. If you live in the Raritan or Passaic basins and even further south in NJ, keep an eye on our AHPS webpage. If you live on the coast, high tides are still seeing positive anomolies due to the upcoming full moon and onshore flow. If heavy rain were to fall at the times of high tide, runoff would be impeded. This would add to the flooding potential. This is shaping up to be a case where a tight rainfall gradient will set up with some areas getting very little rain and adjacent areas getting heavy rain. So once again, remain vigilant if you are in the Watch. Tides / Coastal Flooding A persistent northeast wind continues to keep water trapped along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 2pm Saturday for our coastal counties and along Delaware Bay. The advisory runs until 5pm Friday for the tidal Delaware River above the Commodore Barry Bridge area to account for the later time of high tide there. Increasing tidal departures are expected to work their way up into the upper part of Chesapeake Bay with tonight's high tide. However, water levels are forecast to remain at or just below the minor flooding threshold so no advisory seems necessary for that area. This week's full (Harvest) moon has particularly high astronomical tides associated with it. Based on the latest guidance showing a continued onshore flow into the weekend, we may see additional periods of minor or near minor tidal flooding with high tides through the weekend. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for PAZ070-071-106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ001-007>010-012>015- 019-020-026-027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for DEZ004. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455. |
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