Marine Weather Net

Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

SUN

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ370 Forecast Issued: 244 AM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Today...N Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 7 To 8 Ft At 11 Seconds. Showers Early In The Morning.
Tonight...N Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 7 To 8 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Sun...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 6 To 7 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Sun Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 6 To 7 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Mon...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Swell Nw 5 To 6 Ft At 11 Seconds.
Mon Night...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Swell Nw 4 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Tue...N Wind 15 Kt. Wind Waves N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Swell Nw 5 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Wed...N Wind 15 Kt. Wind Waves N 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 4 Ft At 9 Seconds...Building To W 6 Ft At 18 Seconds.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
314am PDT Sat April 13 2024

A large upper low pressure system, the current driver of our weather, is currently positioned offshore of the CA Bay Area. This low will send waves of showery (on-and-off) precipitation into our region as it slowly spins southeast. Per radar imagery this morning, we've currently got one elongated band along the coast and another moving into southwest Siskiyou County. The low will be in a better position today to lead to more widespread showers across the region today compared to yesterday (Friday).

Along with that, unstable conditions will also result in a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the majority of the region today. Chances are highest (20-40%) from the east Cascade foothills into Klamath and Lake counties in OR and Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties in CA. Conditions conducive to stronger thunderstorms (CAPE and shear) means there's marginal risk (2-5%) for severe thunderstorms over northern/eastern Klamath and northern/western Lake counties. This includes the potential for strong, gusty winds and hail in these stronger thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could occur at any point in the afternoon into the late evening, but the highest chances in the area are in the late afternoon/early evening.

Thunderstorm chances decrease west of the Cascades, but there's still a 10-20% chance for a thunderstorm at any one point (higher towards the Cascades, lower as you head west towards the coast). With the low positioned so that the storm motion is out of the southeast, this is the kind of pattern that results in rain showers and thunderstorms actually making it into the Rogue Valley.

Potential for showers will continue Sunday, though the area where showers are expected will slowly shrink to the east as the low progresses southeast. Snow levels will gradually lower today into the overnight period, generally from the southwest to the northeast, from 5,500-7,500 feet to 4,000-6,000 feet. Light snow is expected down the valleys across Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties, with heavier snow in the mountains of wider Siskiyou and Modoc above 4,000-4,500 feet. Snow amounts by Sunday morning (11 am) look to be in the 2-6 inch range, with some of the higher passes, like Cedar Pass on Highway 299 east of Alturas possibly receiving a little more than 6 inches. Other passes that are expected to be impacted by wet snow Sunday morning -- Highway 97 near Grass Lake, Highway 89 near Snowman Summit/Pondosa and Highway 139 south of Tionesta to Adin. The higher pass on Sawyers Bar road west of Etna and Highway 3 south of Callahan could also see some impacts, but I-5 should be OK. Farther north (and farther away from the upper level cold pool), snow levels are actually expected to remain above 5000 feet, so snow amounts look fairly minimal and confined to the higher mountains. -CSP

PREVIOUS LONG TERMSunday through Friday, April 14-19, 2024...(Issued 435pm PDT Fri April 12 2024)

Sunday afternoon, shower chances remain highest from the Cascades eastward with Probability of Precipitation generally in the 40-70% range, except up above 80% in Modoc and eastern Lake counties due to their closer proximity to the low. Snow levels in NorCal should rise some again Sunday afternoon to above 5000 feet. In addition, there is still a slight chance (20%) of thunderstorms over the far East Side. Probability of Precipitation diminish (to 10-30%) Sunday afternoon west of the Cascades as heigheights begin to rise; some sunny breaks are probable as well. Isolated showers probably linger into Sunday evening over the far East Side. High temperatures Sunday will be at least a few degrees below normal in most cases, but as much as 10-15F below normal in NorCal.

We expect things to calm down Sunday night through Monday night as the low finally exits to the east and an upper ridge noses in. A few sprinkles/flurries are possible (20% chance) in far northern sections of Douglas County, but most likely it will be dry. The rest of the region will be dry with moderating temperatures, but still remaining at least a few degrees below normal Monday afternoon. While it looks to remain above freezing west of the Cascades, much will depend on cloud cover Monday night; low temperatures could be in the mid 30s in the valleys west of the Cascades.

Tuesday onward appears to be a largely dry period, but with upper level pattern variations that make the temperature forecast a little less certain. Initially, an upper trough swinging through to the north on Tuesday may make for some breezy conditions during the afternoon, but precipitation chances remain low and mostly to our north. It could get chilly Tuesday night with patchy/areas of frost by Wednesday morning in some valleys west of the Cascades. The overall trend after that is toward milder temperatures, with the latest model clustering showing some semblance of upper ridging, a thermal trough and a period of offshore flow. NBM indicates high temperatures getting back to above normal levels as early as Wednesday, but then especially Thursday/Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s west of the Cascades. -Spilde

Marine
Updated 300am Saturday, April 13, 2024...A low pressure system is currently situated to our south. Light showers are expected over the water through the weekend, with a slight (10-15%) chance of thunderstorms tonight into this morning. The combination of gusty north winds and westerly swell will result in steep seas with conditions hazardous to small craft for all areas beyond 10 nm from shore through the weekend.

Conditions improve by Monday morning as the upper low moves further south and atmospheric stability builds. Improved conditions will be short lived, however, as a thermal trough develops on Monday afternoon and could remain in place through midweek or longer. This pattern would bring another round of gusty north winds, along with steep to very steep seas, especially south of Cape Blanco by Monday afternoon. /BR-y/Smith

NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 11am PDT Sunday above 4000 feet for CAZ080-082.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 11am PDT Sunday above 4500 feet for CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5pm PDT Sunday for PZZ370-376.