Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Rising To 15 To 25 Kt Late Tonight. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. W Swell 8 To 9 Ft At 10 Seconds... Becoming 7 To 9 Ft At 10 Seconds. Swell Less Than 2 Ft.|
|Tue...S Wind 20 To 25 Kt...Rising To 30 Kt In The Morning, Then...Veering To W Early In The Afternoon...Easing To 15 To 20 Kt Late In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 5 To 8 Ft. W Swell 10 To 11 Ft At 15 Seconds...Building To 12 To 14 Ft At 14 Seconds In The Afternoon. Swell Less Than 2 Ft. Rain Through The Day.|
|Tue Night...W Wind 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. W Swell 11 To 13 Ft At 13 Seconds. Swell Less Than 2 Ft In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Wind 5 Kt...Veering To E In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 10 To 11 Ft.|
|Wed Night...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Veering To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 8 To 9 Ft.|
|Thu...S Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Rising To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less...Becoming 4 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. W Swell 7 To 8 Ft...Subsiding To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Swell Less Than 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Wind 15 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft...Building To 9 To 10 Ft After Midnight. Swell Less Than 2 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri...Sw Wind 15 Kt...Veering To Nw. Wind Waves 5 Ft...Subsiding To 3 Ft. Swell W 19 To 20 Ft.|
|Sat...N Wind 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Swell Nw 16 Ft...Becoming W 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
221pm PST Monday Feb 6 2023
The latest visible image shows varying amounts of high clouds moving in from the northwest. Dry weather will continue through tonight. An weak upper trough and surface cold front will reach the coast Tuesday morning, then move inland during the day. The front could be labeled as a "garden variety" in that it's not expected to bring any impact to the forecast area. Precipitation for the most part will be light, with the highest amounts centered along the Cascades and Coastal mountains in southwest Oregon, even then were only expecting between 0.25 and 0.50 of an inch for both locations. Amounts will be much lighter in the Rogue and Illinois Valley, Umpqua Basin, and portions of Siskiyou county from Tuesday afternoon into late Tuesday evening.
700 mb winds will increase Tuesday, peaking out between 35-45 kts Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, so the eastside will experience gusty winds during this time. However we don't expect them to reach advisory criteria.
Precipitation will diminish and end overnight Tuesday. The exception will be the northern Cascades where light precipitation could linger into the overnight hours. Snow impacts will be minor and mainly confined to the Cascades with 2-4 inches possible from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. -Petrucelli
From 12Z Wednesday to 00Z Tuesday. A departing trough will allow high pressure to build over the region Wednesday morning. Models anticipate a low chance of fog forming within many valleys west of the Cascades as dewpoint depressions are anticipated to remain low with some light winds in the boundary layer.
A ridge builds in over the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Ensembles climatological percentile tables shows this high pressure in the 97th percentile this time of year, which is strong yet not extreme by any means.
The next talking point is a low moving into the Oregon coast sometime around Thursday night into Friday morning as there still is some disagreement in the guidance with when this low arrives. In any case, it's looking like a minor impact system with light precipitation across the region and just some breezy winds. The extreme forecast index doesn't show anything notable with this system and Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) looks rather low with this Friday system. Those IVT values generally hover around 250 to 350, which is rather weak for what we can see in these winter systems. None of the ensemble members go above 500, which is considered better for periods of heavier precipitation. In any case, prepare for 1 to 3 inches of snow above roughly 5500 feet.
Things look like they trend drier into the rest of the weekend, although the NBM keeps a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation over the coast and some of the high central Cascades Saturday into Sunday. This appears to be due to a warm front arriving sometime this upcoming weekend. The NBM does trend temperatures up by 4 to 6 degrees or so heading into Sunday.
The last topic worth noting is how the NBM is putting 50 to 60 percent chance of precipitation in the forecast around Monday into Monday night the 13th. This next system will have the potential for some moderate snow impacts, although it doesn't appear to be worse than that. A 90th percentile snow forecast over 48 hours puts down 12 inches of snow over the higher Cascades ending 12z Tuesday.
Overall, an active weather pattern continues into the extended, although it looks like minor impacts are the most likely. Some moderate snow impacts are possible the 13th.
Updated 130pm PST Monday, February 6, 2023...Swell dominated seas will continue to diminish into this evening. Another front and steep west swell move in Tuesday. The strongest southerly winds will occur north of Cape Blanco, with gusts near gale force Tuesday morning. Winds will diminish Tuesday evening, but high and steep northwest swell will continue into Wednesday night. The next front is expected late Thursday with seas becoming swell dominated Thursday night and building into Friday. Very high and very steep seas are possible late Friday. -Hermansen
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 3am Tuesday to 10 pm PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.