Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Nw 4 To 5 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Tue...S Wind 5 Kt...Rising To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft And Sw 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Mixed Swell W 2 To 4 Ft And Sw 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Sw Wind 10 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft In The Morning...Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 6 To 7 Ft... Building To 6 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Day.|
|Wed Night...Nw Wind 10 Kt...Veering To N After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 10 To 11 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Thu...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt...Rising To 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less...Becoming 4 To 5 Ft. W Swell 9 Ft...Becoming Nw 7 Ft.|
|Fri...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft... Subsiding To 3 Ft After Midnight. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
241pm PDT Sunday September 25 2022
A ridge of high pressure will continue exerting its influence over the next couple of days. This will bring warmer than normal temperatures through the early part of the week. Then, a front will move through, bringing cooler temperatures as well as light precipitation chances to the coast and coast range through midweek. Although a relative break is expected for a day or two at the end of the week, the generally active pattern will continue with the next front moving through next weekend as well as into the far extended period. In general, however, we are not expecting any unusually impactful weather during this forecast period.
Coastal stratus remains along the immediate coast north of Cape Blanco and the Brookings area, with the remainder of the forecast area clear. With the combination of the upper ridge, and offshore flow with the thermal trough along the coast, temperatures will continue to rise tomorrow with dry conditions inland to very dry east of the Cascades.
The upper trough shifts east with southerly flow beginning to bring moisture into the region ahead of as front that brings precipitation into the coastal waters Tuesday night. With this southerly flow's moisture, and more westerly flow west of the Cascades combining with increased cloud cover temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler Tuesday. However, east of the Cascades will still be very dry with moderate gusty southwest winds. The trough will move through the area Wednesday, bringing temperatures back closer to normal, with some light precipitation possible for the coast, Coast Range, and spilling into the Umpqua Valley. As noted in a previous discussion, this trough has trended a little bit more robust, extending some of the precipitation southward into Curry County, which will continue to be beneficial; but do not expect more than light rain anywhere. Again, this front/trough does not appear like it will bring impactful weather to the area.
There will be a break with brief ridging over the area Thursday and Friday before the next system moves in next weekend. By this time there is significant model differences, in both timing and precipitation amounts. Although ensemble amounts look to be light at this time, it looks to be farther inland. From next weekend onward we look to head into a more active pattern. -Sven
Updated 200pm PDT Sunday, 25 September 2022...The thermal trough will weaken today, and north winds will decrease, but steep seas are likely to continue through tonight. Relatively calm conditions are then expected Monday through Tuesday, followed by the arrival of south winds and increased west swell with a weak cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. The thermal trough and north winds return late this week and into this weekend. -BPN
Updated 200pm PDT Sunday 25 September 2022...After a brief respite from last weeks rainfall, we are back at it with respect to fire weather risk. While fuels moistened considerably with the rain, since then, the air mass has dried out significantly and, in turn, fuels are drying out substantially.
Afternoon humidity values have been down to 10-15% in many areas -- even some single digit readings in the driest spots. Weak offshore flow (east winds) has also brought poor to moderate RH recoveries to the upper slopes/ridges during the past few nights. This is leading to moderate to high fire danger again, so we'll be on the lookout for weather impacts that could increase fire starts and/or spread.
The good news is that we aren't expecting any lightning. But, we'll remain warm and dry the rest of today through Tuesday and we'll see an increase in SSW winds ahead of an cold front/upper trough approaching the coast from the Pacific. Starting Monday afternoon, these winds will begin to be felt in NorCal (Scott/Shasta Valleys eastward) into Oregon east of the Cascades. We don't think criteria for a strong winds/low RH RFW will be met, or, at least for a long enough duration where both elements are being met at the same time. However, by Tuesday, models are showing an increase in mid-level flow, which should easily be transported to the surface in the afternoon and early evening. With similar humidity values expected and a large area of 10-20 mph winds (peak gusts 30-35 mph), we've issued a Fire Weather Watch for portions of FWZs 284/285/624 from 2-8 pm PDT.
The surface front and associated marine push will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday and this should result in some cooling and higher humidity for most areas with clouds and a chance of rain along the coast and the Umpqua Basin. Expect high temperatures to be about 10 degrees lower on Wednesday. It'll remain breezy, but humidity should be about 5-10% higher in most places, so no additional headlines at this time.
Dry weather is expected late in the week with slight warming on Friday. -Spilde
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for ORZ624.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ350-356- 370-376.