Central U.S. Waters Strait of Juan de Fuca Marine Forecast
| Today...E Wind 15 To 25 Kt Rising To 25 To 35 Kt. Waves 5 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft This Afternoon. Rain. |
| Tonight...W Wind 30 To 40 Kt. Waves 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft After Midnight. Rain. |
| Sun...Sw Wind 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. |
| Sun Night...Sw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon Night...Se Wind 20 To 30 Kt. Waves 5 To 7 Ft. Showers. |
| Tue...Se Wind 20 To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Tue Night...W Wind 25 To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Rain. |
| Wed...W Wind 20 To 30 Kt. Waves 5 To 7 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...Se Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 925am PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Synopsis Another strong weather system will move through Western Washington today and into the evening hours for more rain and gusty winds. A weaker system will arrive Sunday. A weak upper level ridge will try and build Monday with a weakening system moving into the ridge. More organized system arriving Monday night or Tuesday. The active weather pattern will continue through the end of next week. Short Term - Today through Monday Current radar shows leading edge of next system already starting to work its way through the CWA (County Warning Area) with organized precipitation starting to move into the eastern half of the area. This, however, is not the main system of concern for today...as stated earlier, just the leading edge. Radar does show hints of some development out over the coastal waters which will be the most impactful as it moves into W WA, however latest satellite does a better job of displaying this feature...even going to go so far as to show some lightning strikes with it at times. These strikes are a little further south than our area of concern, more of an issue for PQR as our area is a little too cool and stable to foster much in the way of convective activity. That is not to say that there is no chance for thunder today...but chances are so small that, when compared to everything else going on, these chances ultimately prove negligible. Inherited forecast remains on track. This current band of rainfall along with what is expected later on in the day will not be as much of a rain producer as the prior system...given that the past system had AR support while this current one...not so much. In general a quarter to a half inch of rain across most of the area with a half to an inch along the coast. However, given the winds expected, there are PSCZ concerns, as strong gradients both down the Strait and up the Sound could result in some interesting development this evening and tonight. Where it sets up, how long it stays in the lowlands before being pushed into the Cascades and what impacts it will have in the mountains are all forecast concerns for the day and will certainly be a point of interrogation as 12Z data continues to come in. Speaking of winds, rapid pressure rises behind the front expected to result in strong surface gradients over the area. KOLM-KBLI gradient peaking around plus 7 to plus 9 mb 06Z-09Z with the KUIL-KBLI gradient through the Strait of Juan de Fuca going from negative to plus 5 mb in the matter of a couple of hours. The evening into the early morning hours will be the windiest timeframe especially over the interior. Southerly wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be common over the interior with westerly wind gusts on the coast and through the Strait of Juan de Fuca into Whidbey Island. Previous shift altered the timing for wind headlines and this continues to appear to be on track. With the gusts mentioned, may still have to consider prospect for upgrade from Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning for some locations, including along the coast...but decision there will likely reside with fresh data coming in as well as trends in obs as main front draws closer. The prior two paragraphs culminate into current winter weather headline for the Cascades. Forecast remains consistent with snow levels lowering further tonight to 3000-3500 ft. This would bring accumulations to all passes save for Snoqualmie Sunday. Where challenges arise is the transition from stratiform precipitation tonight to showery precipitation Sunday...which would possibly lead to lower amounts. To offset this, however, is the development of the aforementioned PSCZ...which could serve to amplify amounts for wherever it set up. These two opposing factors summate in leaving the current headline as is, as amounts stated there and in inherited forecast essentially splits the difference...which seems like the best way to go at this time. The next system moving through Western Washington on Sunday proves to be the weakest of the bunch...producing some rain but not a lot of wind. Some instability behind the front late in the day for a slight chance of thunderstorms. Best chance will be in a developing convergence zone over Snohomish County in the afternoon. Snow levels remaining in the 3000-3500 foot range in the Cascades. Precipitation amounts not impressive with a quarter to half inch of water forecast but the precipitation will be in the form of snow at all the passes /could see a rain/snow mix at Snoqualmie/. Highs only in the lower 50s. Showers decreasing Sunday night as a weak temporary upper level ridge tries to build into the area. Convergence zone moving through the metro area in the evening before dissipating by midnight. Snow continuing in the passes with snow levels remaining near 3000 feet. With the decreasing showers accumulations will taper off overnight. In all from Saturday evening to Sunday evening expecting 6 to 10 inches of new snow for the Cascades above 3500 feet with higher amounts on Mount Rainier. A few breaks in the clouds along with the cool air mass overhead will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s in many locations early Monday morning. Monday looks to be a race between the building ridge and a weak system trying to move into the area. Ensemble solutions still have plenty of wet, very light precipitation, solutions keeping at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Another cool day with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday From Previous Discussion...Model solutions, which have been pretty consistent the last few runs, now showing increased variability for Monday night into Tuesday. GFS (Global Forecast System) has a warm front moving into the area while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has the front back near 130W. Ensemble solutions leaning more toward the GFS solutions so have some likely probability of precipitation in the forecast for Monday night amd Tuesday. Better agreement in a cold front arriving Tuesday night. More inconsistency in the solutions Wednesday through Friday with another possible atmospheric river setting up later Thursday into Friday. The operational ECMWF much further north with this feature versus the GFS. Ensembles favor a Marine A strong frontal system will move through today into tonight followed by a weaker system Sunday. Small break possible Monday before another system Monday night into Tuesday. Break possible again in the middle of next week before a front arrives late in the week. Gale force winds over all the waters today and tonight. Winds easing Sunday morning. Small craft advisory winds over the coastal waters with the system Tuesday. Seas building to 14 to 20 feet today with the higher seas in the outer coastal waters. Seas subsiding Sunday into Monday with seas down to 8 to 10 feet by later Monday. Seas remaining in the 8 to 10 Hydrology As forecast the Skokomish River crested below action stage late Friday evening. Cooler air mass over the area combined with much lower rainfall amounts will result in little in the way of river rises with the next two systems. Next possible hydrologically significant precipitation late next week. Lots of variability in the solutions at this point but it is possible the Skokomish makes a run at flood stage late next NOAA Seattle WA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories WA...Wind Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 5am PDT Sunday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County- Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal- Willapa and Black Hills. Winter Weather Advisory from 11pm this evening to 11pm PDT Sunday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm PDT Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar Gale Warning until 5am PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- West Entrance USA Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 2pm this afternoon to 5am PDT Sunday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. |
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