Admiralty Inlet Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Wind 25 To 35 Kt Easing To 20 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Tonight...S Wind 10 To 20 Kt Rising To 15 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain. |
| Sun...Se Wind 15 To 25 Kt Rising To 20 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. |
| Sun Night...S Wind 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...Se Wind 10 To 20 Kt Rising To 20 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Se Wind 20 To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue...Se Wind 20 To 30 Kt Becoming S To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft Subsiding To 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Sw Wind To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...CORRECTED National Weather Service Seattle WA 932am PST Sat Dec 2 2023 Synopsis A series of strong weather systems will maintain active weather across the Pacific Northwest for much of the week ahead. Heavy precipitation and gusty winds through this morning will maintain hazardous winter driving conditions over the Cascade passes. This is followed by a pair of atmospheric rivers that will impact the region through early next week. This will also lead to increased risk of river flooding across the region, especially Monday and Tuesday with much higher snow levels and heavier precipitation. Short Term - Today through Monday Only minor tweaks were made to the forecast this morning to account for current precipitation and radar trends. A convergence zone set up across King County this morning, which produced a narrow band of heavier precipitation and accounted for additional heavy snow at the passes. Latest trends show the convergence zone dissipating, however can expect to see scattered shower activity continue throughout the day today. The remainder of the previous discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14 An upper level low located in SE Alaska has pushed a cold front through W WA early this morning. A slight chance of thunderstorm activity continues for the coast early this morning and will diminish into the afternoon, with only a 10% percent chance of any thunderstorm activity for the rest of Western Washington. High temps will feel warmer today, in the upper 40s to possibly even lower 50s. With steadier precipitation through this morning, snow has persisted in the mountains where a Winter Storm Warning will continue, along with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Olympics. Although, snow levels have been on the rise since the overnight period, and will continue to gradually rise throughout the day, which will keep the highest snow amounts generally above 3000 feet. Traveling will still be difficult in the mountains. There may be a brief lull in activity later this evening with just some scattered showers, before the first atmospheric river impacts our region, starting on Sunday, with widespread rain and warmer conditions through the area. Latest guidance has been trending towards a shift of the main moisture transport, which is more south than originally expected. With snow levels rising to around 6000 to 7000 feet on Sunday afternoon, there is still a heightened hydrologic impact even though the moisture axis has somewhat shifted. This first atmospheric river will bring heavy rain on top of fresh snow (especially in the mountains), which will likely result in enhanced flows on local rivers and a likely chance for river flooding. See the hydrology section for more details on the Flood Watch and the flooding threat. Rain will continue into Monday, before a stronger and wetter atmospheric river enters the area by Monday night. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday A stronger, wetter atmospheric river will impact the area starting from mid-day Monday into Tuesday. This will bring another round of widespread heavy rainfall, mountain snow, and breezy conditions throughout the area. Ensemble guidance continues to point a plume of moisture streaming into W WA, along with much higher snow levels, around 7000 to 8000 feet through Tuesday. By this time, rivers will likely be running at elevated levels, this will be a very heightened timeframe for multiple rivers to be reaching flood stage, and several other hydrologic impacts. The forecast will remain sensitive to slight changes in river and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecasts, so closely monitor the forecast in the next coming of days. The main areas of concern, especially with the compounding of rain over the short term and long term period, will be river flooding, the threat for avalanches, and burn scar landslides/debris flows. See the hydrology section for more details. Guidance is hinting towards a weaker system possibly entering the area Thursday/Friday with periods of light rain, but ensembles are not giving a clear signal at this time. Mazurkiewicz Marine A series of frontal systems will make their way across the waters from Sunday through Tuesday. Gale force winds over the waters this morning are on track to ease to Small Craft Advisory levels this afternoon, thus will allow Gale Warnings to transition to SCAs. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will continue for most of the area waters into Sunday. Gales possible late Sunday in the Central Strait of Juan de Fuca and the East Entrance behind the next front. Gales are possible over the coastal waters with the system Monday night into Tuesday. Each one of these systems will most likely bring small craft advisory winds to the remainder of the waters. Seas 14 to 16 feet will subside Sunday but remain above 10 feet. Seas building again Tuesday and could approach 20 feet. Hydrology A series of weather systems will move through Western Washington through Tuesday bringing multiple rounds of rain and periods of mountain snow to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the area from tonight through late Wednesday night. While periods of heavy snow are forecast for the mountains through today, warmer and wetter systems will move into the area Sunday through Tuesday. Snow levels near 3000 feet today will rise rapidly to 5000 to 6000 feet Sunday morning. Snow levels will continue to rise peaking around 8500 to 9500 feet Monday night before peaking at 8000 to 9000 feet by Monday night. Rainfall totals in the mountains for Sunday through early Wednesday generally range from 10 inches in the higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades, 6-8 inches for the foothills, 2-4 inches for the interior lowlands, and 4-6 inches for the coast. The combination of heavy precipitation and rising snow levels will most likely result in river flooding on many rivers across western Washington. As usual the Skokomish River will be the first to flood on Sunday. Other rivers will be reaching flood stage later Monday into Tuesday. Moderate flooding is possible on some of the bigger rivers like the Snoqualmie, Snohomish and Skagit as well as the lower reaches of the Chehalis beginning Tuesday. While flooding looks likely across the region, there remains a degree of uncertainty in the scope and extent due to timing of the snow to rain switchover in the high elevations and uncertainty in the locations of the heaviest bands of precipitation. It will be important to stay up to date on the latest forecast developments over the weekend. In addition to the river flooding, burn scars in the Cascades will have to be monitored with the heavy precipitation forecast. Elevated risks of landslide and debris flows will be possible next week. NOAA Seattle WA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories WA...Flood Watch from this evening through late Wednesday night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area- Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area- West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes-Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for Olympics. Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Sunday for West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar Gale Warning until 1pm PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal West Entrance USA Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 6am PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- West Entrance USA Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 4pm PST this afternoon for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 1pm PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 6pm PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 1am PST Sunday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal |
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