Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt... Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt...Increasing To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt... Diminishing To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207pm EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Synopsis Low pressure approaching from the Tennessee River Valley will cross overhead Thursday. A cold front will pass through early Friday. High pressure will build to the south of the area Saturday, with another low pressure system set to approach from the Great Lakes early next week. Near Term - Through Thursday Light showers and sprinkles continued to pivot northwestward as of early afternoon in onshore flow. This pattern will persist ahead of beneficial rain on the way for tonight. A pair of closed lows over Lake Erie and Arkansas are in the process of merging/phasing. This will drive a dynamic weather system across our area. The primary low is near the Tennessee River Valley. Another coastal low seems to be developing east of South Carolina which may play a role in convection/warm sector dynamics late tonight into Thursday morning. The main impactful period will be tonight into Thursday as strong ascent and moisture flux overspread the area ahead of the low approaching from the Tennessee River Valley. Moderate to locally heavy rain can be expected, supported by precipitable water values near 1.5 inches. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, especially late tonight into Thursday morning. At this time, the instability appears to be mostly elevated, thus limiting any severe weather threat overnight associated with the dynamic wind fields. Most hi-res guidance continues to show a brief/narrow corridor of near surface-based instability associated with a strongly forced frontal rain band Thursday morning through mid afternoon. This would be the result of more dynamics from the coastal low, and has resulted in Storm Prediction Center expanding a Marginal severe weather outlook for Thursday across much of the Mid-Atlantic. Given the strength of the low-level winds, a brief tornado can't be ruled out in addition to a few damaging straight line wind gusts. Generally 1-2 inches of rain is forecast, though some locations could get a bit less. CAMs also indicate potential for locally 3 inches of rain due to terrain enhancements and/or heavier convective elements. This rain should be mostly beneficial given recent dry conditions, though some localized issues could arise where there are heavier rain rates. Will have to monitor trends in easterly upslope areas, as well. Latest trends are for the heaviest rain to be between the Blue Ridge Mountains and I-95. Winds will also increase as the low passes, but likely won't reach hazardous levels. The higher ridgetops above 2000 ft could see some gusts over 40 mph, and perhaps on the western slopes (downslope side) of the Alleghenies. Tidal flooding will also be an issue (see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section below). Temperatures, which could be non-diurnal in nature, will be dependent on the low track. Locations which break into the warm sector will reach the 60s Thursday. While timing is still a bit uncertain, we should see improving conditions beginning Thursday afternoon or evening. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night Remaining precipitation will become focused on the Alleghenies as winds turn westerly and locations to the east are dry slotted. The highest peaks could see a changeover to snow late at night. A secondary front will cross overnight into Friday morning. Westerly winds will begin to increase first in the mountains, and elsewhere especially so after sunrise Friday. Wind Advisory conditions (at least 46 mph gusts) are possible in the higher terrain and possibly north of US-50 in the lower elevations. Elsewhere, 25-40 mph gusts seem likely. Some upslope precipitation could linger through the day and possibly into Friday night. However, the moisture layer will become increasingly shallow and temperatures will be marginal, thus not expecting much wintry impact. In the lowlands, winds drop off Friday night with lows in the 30s to mid 40s. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday A strong upper-level trough pivots across the northern Plains on Saturday before deepening and tracking eastward towards the East Coast on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure builds overhead from the south with primarily dry conditions expected each day. The exception will be Monday, where the upper-level trough pushes a cold front through the forecast area. Moisture remains limited with the front, leading to a slight chance of precipitation across the forecast area. Surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry conditions returning. High temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s each day with those along the highest elevations staying in the 40s. Overnight low temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s each night. Marine A bit of a lull in northeast flow is being observed across parts of the area as of early afternoon. Winds increase again tonight into Thursday as low pressure moves from the Tennessee River Valley across the Mid-Atlantic. There could be a brief period of near-gale conditions tonight, but confidence is not high enough for a watch/warning, especially since duration may be brief. There may also be some embedded thunderstorms, or at least heavier rains late tonight into Thursday morning. Some guidance indicates a brief break in winds as the low passes nearby late Thursday into Thursday night. Even so, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will resume/continue by late Thursday night as winds turn southwest then westerly. A secondary front passes early Friday with a strong pressure surge behind it. Gale Watches have been issued for Friday given an uptick in winds in recent guidance. West winds gusting 15 to 20 knots Saturday morning may lead to possible Small Craft Advisories through early Saturday afternoon. Winds diminish below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies were steady or slowly rising as of early afternoon. The higher of the two daily tides is Thursday morning/midday. By this time, increasing onshore east to southeast and eventually south flow is expected to lead to a surge of water, with tides expected to run 2 to 3 feet above normal Thursday morning into early afternoon. This will result in minor flooding across most shoreline, with moderate flooding in the more vulnerable spots. In particular, given the wind direction, Annapolis could push well into moderate. The exact wind direction, strength, and duration will have a substantial impact on the exact tide levels, so be sure to check back for updates through Thursday. Thereafter, offshore flow will cause anamolies to steadily decrease Thursday night into Friday. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6pm EDT Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10pm EDT Thursday for MDZ011. Coastal Flood Warning from 6pm this evening to 6am EDT Friday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4pm EDT Thursday for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Warning from 2am to 2pm EDT Thursday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for MDZ018. Coastal Flood Warning from 4am to 4pm EDT Thursday for MDZ018. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3am Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for MDZ508. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4pm EDT Thursday for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am EDT Thursday for VAZ054. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm Thursday to 6am EDT Friday for VAZ054. Coastal Flood Warning from 9am to 6pm EDT Thursday for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for ANZ530>534-537- 539>543. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ535-536- 538. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6am EDT Friday for ANZ535-536-538. |
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