Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908am EDT Monday Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Closely monitoring incoming guidance regarding anticipated heat and eventually severe thunderstorm potential late this week. .KEY MESSAGES... - (1) Heat and humidity gradually build across the region early this week. - (2) Potentially extreme heat could persist through the Independence Day weekend, along with a return of showers & thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity gradually build across the region early this week. Low clouds and fog are lifting as of mid morning. Conditions are expected to remain dry across the majority of the forecast area today, but a few popup afternoon showers or a brief thunderstorm can't be ruled mainly out west of US-15, especially across the higher terrain. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s today, perhaps near 90 where the sun breaks out earlier (Baltimore area, for example), with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This results in heat index values around or a couple degrees above the air temps. Strong upper ridging will gradually build in from the west through Wednesday, with a closed mid-level anticyclone becoming centered over the Central Appalachians by Wednesday. Heat and humidity will continue to build across the region each successive day, with temperatures at lower elevations climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday, and then upper 90s to around 100 on Wednesday. Dewpoints will increase into the lower 70s to the west of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday, with 60s further east. Lower 70s dewpoints are expected to overspread the majority of the forecast area by Wednesday. Heat indices are forecast to reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s for most on Tuesday, but could approach 100 just in the lee of the Alleghenies from near Cumberland to Petersburg. Heat Advisories may potentially need to be considered for those locations on Tuesday. Heat indices are then forecast to reach 100-110 across all lower elevations on Wednesday. Heat headlines will almost certainly be needed for Wednesday. Conditions are largely expected to remain dry on Tuesday and Wednesday as large scale subsidence increases ahead of the approaching upper ridge axis, but a stray popup afternoon shower or storm can't be ruled out in the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant heat risk this week heading into the Independence Day holiday. Upper-level ridging will remain centered over the Appalachians potentially through the end of the week, allowing temperatures and humidity to continually increase into the Independence Day holiday weekend. Beginning Thursday, conditions could begin to become an extreme heat risk as defined by the NWS HeatRisk guidance. With widespread dewpoints in the lower 70s due to subtropical high pressure bringing moist air in, air temperatures ranging between the upper 90s-low 100s could cause heat indices approaching 110 in some areas Wednesday through Sunday. Towards the end of this period, a shortwave trough could develop over the Mid-Atlantic Friday and Saturday. This could potentially reintroduce widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with thunderstorms having the potential to become severe due to the extended heat & humidity. Multiple ML and AI model outputs currently show a 15%-40% probability for severe weather to materialize between Friday July 3rd to Sunday July 5th as this trough moves through. Given all the ongoing outdoor activities across the region during this timeframe, will have to continue to closely monitor the synoptic setup ahead of this time period. Early model guidance suggests that upper-level ridging officially begins to exit the region towards the start of next week, potentially signaling a breakdown in the heat towards the end of the forecast period. Marine Light and variable winds are expected over the waters through mid-afternoon. Winds then turn southerly this evening, and could briefly near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for a few hours. Winds remain southerly for Tuesday and Wednesday, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely in southerly channeling each afternoon and evening. Winds stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Thursday and through the weekend. Thunderstorm chances over the waters increase Friday and Saturday, which could become severe. Should these conditions materialize, Special Marine Warnings could become necessary. Winds generally flow south to southwesterly Thursday & Friday. Climate There is a significant heat risk this week. The numbers below aren't a forecast, but rather a reference for historical context for comparison. Latest forecast: weather.gov/lwx. ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on July 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on July 20, 1930 + August 06, 1918) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on July 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on July 07, 2012 + July 22, 2011) Annapolis 106 (set on August 06, 1918) Hagerstown 105 (set on July 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on July 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on September 07, 1954 + 3 other times) ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on August 05, 1930 + 2 other times) Washington 84 (set on July 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 79 (set on August 08, 2007) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on July 02, 2011 and July 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on July 07, 1994) Hagerstown 86 (set on Jun 15, 1899) Martinsburg 86 (set on July 21, 1930) Charlottesville 85 (set on August 07, 1918) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on July 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on July 20, 1930) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on July 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on July 07, 2012 + July 22, 2011) Annapolis 105 (set on July 21, 1930 + July 02, 1901) Hagerstown 105 (set on July 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on July 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on July 10, 1936 + July 20, 1930) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on July 21, 1930) Washington 84 (set on July 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 78 (set on July 24, 2010 + July 08, 2010) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on July 22, 2011 + July 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on July 07, 1994) Hagerstown 83 (set on July 24, 2010) Martinsburg 86 (set on July 21, 1930) Charlottesville 84 (set on July 22, 1930) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 01 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1933 + 1901) Washington 102 (1901) | 79 (1977) Sterling-Dulles Airport 96 (2012) | 72 (2017 + 3) Baltimore Downtown 101 (2012) | 82 (2012) Annapolis 103 (1901) | 79 (1945 + 1901) Hagerstown 100 (1901) | 74 (2017 + 1977) Martinsburg 102 (1933) | 74 (1933) Charlottesville 101 (2012 + 1945) | 78 (1901) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 02 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1901) Washington 101 (1898) | 79 (2012 + 1872) Sterling-Dulles Airport 98 (1966) | 75 (2022) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1966) | 84 (2002) Annapolis 105 (1901) | 80 (1901) Hagerstown 100 (1966) | 74 (2018 + 1901) Martinsburg 102 (1933 + 1931) | 75 (1933 + 1901) Charlottesville 100 (1954) | 76 (1910) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 03 ================================================================== Baltimore 104 (1898) | 80 (1898) Washington 101 (1966 + 2) | 80 (2018) Sterling-Dulles Airport 103 (1966) | 73 (2018 + 2) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1997) | 82 (2018 + 1983) Annapolis 100 (1901) | 84 (1896) Hagerstown 102 (1966) | 76 (2002) Martinsburg 102 (1941 + 1911) | 74 (1980) Charlottesville 100 (1966 + 1954) | 79 (1911) Period of Record (POR) context... Area (obs site) Records since ------------------------------------------------------------------ Baltimore (BWI) Jan 1872 Washington (DCA) July 1872 Sterling-Dulles Airport (IAD) Jan 1960 Baltimore Downtown (DMH) July 1950 Annapolis (NAK) Jan 1894 Hagerstown (HGR) Jan 1899 Martinsburg (MRB) Jan 1891 Charlottesville (CHO) Jan 1893 NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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