Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 Kt...Becoming N Late. Waves Flat. Scattered Snow Showers This Evening, Then Numerous Snow Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 211pm EST Tuesday Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Clouds are increasing as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west. Western Highland County has been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. A second weak wave of low pressure has trended a bit north for Wednesday and may bring some light snow across central Virginia to southern Maryland. Winds have trended stronger for Friday night into Saturday. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A clipper-like system will bring light snow to the area through tonight. - 2) A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...A clipper-like system will bring light snow to the area through tonight. A shortwave trough is approaching the Mid-Atlantic from the Ohio River Valley. Guidance remains rather divergent even at this short lead time on the axis of (light) snow tonight. However, upstream observations, UA analyses and WV satellite suggest the axis of this wave will track roughly along the I-64 corridor, which should put a band of locally steadier snow showers just to its north. Strongly considered adding the Blue Ridge Mountains to the Winter Weather Advisory (and may still do so shortly), but with some guidance completely dry tonight confidence is less than ideal. Did add western Highland County to the advisory given better confidence with a narrow band of snow approaching from the west. Areas further north into western MD may ultimately fall short given some drier trends further north, but will hold on to the advisory through the evening commute and see how things evolve over the next few hours. Light snow or snow showers will likely pivot eastward tonight between late evening and the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Around an inch of accumulation seems feasible roughly between I-66 and I-64 (wherever a locally steadier band sets up) with a few isolated higher totals possible. Otherwise, a coating of snow is anticipated, with little to no snow possible near the PA line. Despite the light snow falling overnight, some lingering light snow and sub-freezing temperatures could still result in slick roads during the morning commute particularly from DC south to the Fredericksburg area. A second/trailing wave will pass to the south Wednesday afternoon and evening. Trends have been for this weak low to be a bit further north with a little more moisture and mid/upper jet forcing. This could result in another light coating of snow from central VA to southern MD. A few rogue 12Z hi-res members were notably higher/further north, which bears monitoring given the recent northward trends. KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, a leading shortwave trough quickly traverses our area during the day Friday, which could bring a burst of snow east of the Alleghenies. Accumulating snow along/east of I-81 will have to contend with more marginal temperatures in the low to mid 30s. However, the strong cold air advection and substantial lift in the DGZ could possibly overcome any marginal temps at the surface. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days for any possible impacts from snow on Friday. For the mountains, a steady period of moderate to possibly heavy snow is possible, with several inches of accumulating snow being noted in much of the model guidance. Additionally, the increasing winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility issues. Snow squalls are possible Friday evening into Friday night as the base of the upper trough slams into the Alleghenies. This is a very favorable synoptic setup for upslope snow, though it is going to be short-lived as forcing quickly departs, and moisture is more limited due to abundant ice cover on Lake Erie and Lake Huron. As the upper trough digs right over our area Friday night, it is likely to induce a sudden onset of windy conditions, especially in the wind-favored climo areas (mountains & along/north of I-66). The 500mb height fields in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) show intense ripples within a very sharp gradient over the Appalachians - a signal that usually leads to mixing of stronger winds aloft with northwesterly downslope winds. Most of the guidance has wind gusts of 35-45 mph across the area, with 45-55 mph in the mountains. Higher gusts are noted in the ensemble guidance, thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings may eventually be needed for parts of the area. Frigid temperatures return to the area for this weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s each day (maybe getting to around freezing in parts of central VA). Lows Saturday morning drop to the teens, then likely see single digits to low teens areawide for Sunday morning. Wind chills are going to be in the low single digits to -5F or lower each night, with -10F to -20F in the mountains. Interestingly, the GFS has a progressive clipper passing through on Sunday that could bring additional light snow, but confidence in that is very low given model uncertainty. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail this weekend into the start of next week. Marine Light winds around 5 knots are expected through tonight, generally becoming southeast to east. Winds will turn northerly to northwesterly Wednesday into Thursday. Gusts will increase behind a weak wave of low pressure with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possibly being needed for portions of the waters. The wind may lighten a bit Wednesday night before a reinforcing period of gusts drops through on Thursday. Relatively light winds on Friday will increase a bit out of the southwest ahead of an Arctic front. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are possible. As the Arctic front crosses, an abrupt wind shift to northwest and a sudden increase in gusts are expected Friday night, especially after midnight. Solid gale conditions are most likely late Friday night into Saturday (though timing may waver a bit), but storm-force winds can't totally be ruled out (see: ECMWF upward trend in winds over the last few cycles). NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ509. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ503. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ501- 505. Marine None. |
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