Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 247am EDT Tuesday May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the current forecast package. Another day of challenging record high temperatures. Subtle adjustments to spotty t-storm chances this afternoon. More widespread storms Wednesday with a 30 degree cooldown late week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. 2) Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. It's another day of challenging record high temperatures given the strengthened upper level ridge over the region. After a warm start this morning in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s, temperatures will quickly surge. 850 mb temperatures will run +19 to +23 degrees C yielding highs well into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The hottest temperatures look to be across the immediate I-95 metros and down into the central VA Piedmont where temperatures will run between 96 and 98 degrees. Heat index values will be similar to the air temperatures given the drier air at the surface and aloft. Even with that said, expect a slight bump in humidity with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s making it uncomfortable for extended time outdoors. The strengthened ridge overhead combined with the high heat should put a lid on convection today. Still looking at a spotty shower or t- storm this afternoon and evening as another weak piece of energy passes through. Most of this convection will be tied to the mountains or perhaps the bay breeze given the lack of a mean lifting mechanism. Wednesday will mark the last day of the high heat before temperatures take a 25 to 30 degree nose dive late week. The front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current 00z CAMS, and deterministic guidance show a prefrontal trough ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon with the actual front crossing Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The prefrontal trough will be the catalyst for strong to severe thunderstorms given the ample instability and increased shear ahead of the boundary. Storm Prediction Center continue to highlight the area in a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. This aligns with the NCAR's AI NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU's Day 2 probabilities ranks the severe threat between 15 to 30 percent. Regardless of the severe threat, this front will likely result in widespread beneficial rain at a minimum as well as a 20-30 degree drop in temperatures expected later in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring additional rain showers to the region. Highs Wednesday will push back into the low to mid 90s with a few upper 90s across the I-95 metros and down into the Piedmont region. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) southerly channeling can be expected again this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds may near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Thursday through Saturday. Climate Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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