Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming N Late. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007am EDT Tuesday September 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes were made to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe weather risk increasing for the second half of the week. - 2) Record high minimum temperatures likely this week, but record high maximum temperatures appear unlikely now. - 3) Heat & thunderstorms begin to decrease towards the start of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe weather risk increasing for the second half of the week. The upper ridge over the TN Valley is expected to build east over the next 36 hrs with heigheights cresting over the local area Wednesday afternoon. The ridge is expected to begin losing its grip over the area during the second half of the week as upper trough amplifies across the Northeast into the Mid Atlantic. Large scale height falls are not forecast to occur over the area until Wednesday night or Thu, so until then, forcing for upward vertical motion remains uncertain, but will have to monitor closely thunderstorm clusters over the eastern Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic as they could track across the area. Today appears to be the hottest day of this week as westerly downslope flow results in compressional warming and drying. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon look almost NIL, however, guidance indicate a cluster of storms arriving this evening across northeast Maryland from southeast Pennsylvania. The timing suggests that convection will be weakening or probably sub-severe. Wednesday's forecast seems to be the most uncertain with respect to thunderstorm chances. The late Tuesday night convection will leave a boundary across the area where it will stall as it figheights the strong ridge to the south. Some thunderstorm development is possible across central PA and into northern MD. Timing seems like the biggest uncertainty, but some guidance suggest an early day complex rolling through the area. By Thursday, cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes will likely ignite thunderstorm clusters over much of Pennsylvania that will likely track further south into the area at some point during the day or night with potential for severe weather given strengthening mid-level flow. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record high minimum temperatures likely this week, but record high maximum temperatures appear unlikely now. Guidance has had a high bias the past several days with respect to daytime highs. In addition, a slight cooling trend has also been seen which would make any record high maximum temperatures very unlikely, but the high humidity will keep minimum temperatures on the very warm side. Some record high minimums are possible or even likely this week. See Climate section below for actual numbers. While it will be hot and humid this week, forecast heat indices appear will remain shy of heat advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 3...Heat & thunderstorms begin to decrease towards the start of the weekend. Beginning on Friday, temperatures decrease back to the lower 90s as the midweek cold front pushes to the south. Meanwhile, a strong surface high forming over Quebec will move into New England towards the start of the weekend. Associated with this will be signficant dry mid-level air moving across the Mid-Atlantic. As this feature continues to track south, subsidence across the East Coast combined with the dry mid-level air will stabilize conditions and reduce thunderstorm chances going into the weekend. As dewpoints drop, expect cooler, drier conditions closer to September normals, especially between Saturday and Sunday as temperatures continue to drop into the low-to-mid 80s during the day. A few spotty showers are not completely out of the question as low-level moisture persists over the mountains during this period, but overall expect progressively drier and cooler conditions across the Mid-Atlantic beginning Friday and into the holiday weekend. Marine Winds below 10kt most of the time, but higher winds and waves can be expected near thunderstorms. Winds remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds on Friday before potentially increasing to marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on Saturday. Northwest winds shift northerly early Saturday. Climate Given slightly cooler trends seen in the guidance for daytime highs, record high maximum temperatures seem unlikely. However, record high minimum temperatures are possible. Below is a list of record warm temperatures for September 1, 2, and 3. (A '+' indicates the record also occurred in previous years). The period of record for most sites dates back to the late 1800s, except for Sterling-Dulles Airport which dates back to 1960. ==================================================================== SEPTEMBER 1 ==================================================================== Site Record Daily High Record Daily Warm Low Baltimore (BWI) MD 99 (1962) 78 (1932+) Washington DC 99 (1980+) 77 (1980) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA 98 (1980) 73 (2000) Baltimore (Downtown) MD 99 (1973) 80 (2012) Annapolis MD 95 (1962) 78 (2018+) Hagerstown MD 101 (1902) 72 (2018+) Martinsburg WV 103 (1932) 73 (2000+) Charlottesville VA 105 (1932) 78 (1932) ==================================================================== SEPTEMBER 2 ==================================================================== Site Record Daily High Record Daily Warm Low Baltimore (BWI) MD 99 (1953) 75 (1932+) Washington DC 101 (1980) 78 (1980) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA 99 (1980) 72 (2020+) Baltimore (Downtown) MD 98 (1980+) 80 (1980) Annapolis MD 97 (1998) 79 (2018+) Hagerstown MD 100 (1953) 73 (2018+) Martinsburg WV 103 (1932) 72 (2000+) Charlottesville VA 105 (1953) 80 (1930) ==================================================================== SEPTEMBER 3 ==================================================================== Site Record Daily High Record Daily Warm Low Baltimore (BWI) MD 98 (2023) 79 (1993) Washington DC 98 (1953) 79 (1993) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA 99 (2023) 77 (1993) Baltimore (Downtown) MD 98 (2023) 82 (1993) Annapolis MD 99 (1993) 79 (2018) Hagerstown MD 100 (1953) 72 (2018+) Martinsburg WV 102 (1953) 71 (1957) Charlottesville VA 104 (1953) 75 (1930) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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