Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Thu...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1031pm EST Sunday Jan 19 2020
An expansive area of high pressure will translate eastward from the northern Plains during the first half of the week, becoming centered overhead by Wednesday. High pressure will move offshore during the second half of the week, then low pressure will approach from the central United States for Saturday.
Near Term - Through Monday
Latest surface analysis has a primary low pressure over Nova Scotia. A trough axis also extends west from this low across Pennsylvania/downstate New York/southern New England. Further west, broad high pressure extends north to south across the central US. Aloft, a broad trough dominates the eastern half of the country.
Little change necessary to the going forecast. Winds are starting to relax slightly due to nocturnal stabilization. However, the incoming shortwave trough should reinvigorate the wind field. In terms of temperatures, advection playing a bigger role compared to radiation. Made small hourly adjustments early, but believe that we will be on track overnight. Wind chills coming close to Advisory in the mountains, but it will be confined just to the ridge tops. Scattered upslope snow showers should be anticipated for the mountains as well. Did adjust accums upward for tonight, but at an inch or two this will be just under Advisory criteria as well.
Previous discussion... Through Monday, the shortwave and surface trough will be dropping southeastward across our region. However, the effects on our weather will be minimal, with the main impact being perhaps a reinforcing shot of colder air, though the difference appears marginal compared to what we will have before the trough reaches us. The system should generally be dry as well, with only a few upslope snow showers along the Allegany Front and perhaps a few flurries further east. The most significant impact would be winds, which will stay gusty through the day Monday. This will result in wind chills that fall to the teens tonight and perhaps only reach the 20s on Monday. In the higher terrain of eastern West Virginia, they may drop near wind chill advisory levels, but right now it doesn't look widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Otherwise, this cold would be nothing to write home about most winters, but this month has hardly been like most winters so far, with the current anomalies being 9-10 degrees above normal. So, it will feel relatively brutal even though its only a bit below normal. Lows tonight will fall into the 20s, with teens in the colder spots, while highs Monday will struggle to reach the 30s, with 20s in the colder spots.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
High pressure will gradually build eastward Monday night through Tuesday night. This should allow winds to slowly diminish, though may also help radiational cooling at night. Thus, lows probably bottom out Monday night, then both highs and lows will moderate a bit Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as the high dominates, with partly to mostly clear skies.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
High pressure remains in place Wednesday, moving directly overhead, which should allow temperatures to rise closer to average, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. High pressure then slides offshore by Thursday afternoon, with high temperatures rising into the mid 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
A strong mid-upper trough will swing out of the northern Rockies on Friday, resulting in the formation of surface low pressure over the central Plains. Still a fair bit of uncertainty with regards to where this upper low tracks though. The Euro keeps it more closed off and tracking south, while the GFS brings it north through the Great Lakes. There will be many moving parts with this system that will need to be ironed out before any definitive forecast can be made. For now, going with rain chances beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday. The climatologically favored northwestern areas stand the chance for some wintry precipitation with this system, but again, that will largely depend on the track, which is too uncertain at this point. For now, just something to watch.
Gusty NW winds will continue through Monday before potentially starting to relax significantly by Tuesday night as high pressure very gradually builds in. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Monday for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay including all inlets and the mouth of the Potomac River. It may linger through Monday night and maybe into Tuesday.
The mid-upper Potomac hinted perhaps that winds would diminish overnight as forecast, but the latest observations, model guidance, and the approach of a shortwave axis cast doubts. Have decided to continue the current Advisory through 3am. Advisories resume at 6am, so if this needs to go any longer then the two parts would get strung together. However assessing the depth of the mixed layer suggests that its possible to get a few hour lull predawn.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Monday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Monday for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to noon EST Monday for ANZ535- 536.