Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming W With Gusts To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 344pm EDT Sunday Oct 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have continued to lower temperatures today given the influence of low clouds and persistent east to northeasterly winds on the area. This would also shift the focus of any low-topped tornado threat down toward I-64 where conditions should be slightly warmer. However, instability continues to the main question despite all of the low-level wind shear in place. Otherwise, have added another Coastal Flood Advisory for the City of Alexandria for the high tide late this evening. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remnants of Isaias bring rain, breezy conditions, and an isolated brief ornado or two. - 2) Above normal temperatures through mid week, then a late- week cold front bring a drop in temperatures along with additional precipitation chances. KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Isaias bring rain, breezy conditions, and an isolated brief tornado or two. A modified tropical air mass remains entrenched over the area with widespread precipitatable water values ranging from 1.50 to 2.00 inches. The associated warm conveyor belt has brought highly efficient rainfall to the region with a widespread 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain observed during the past 18 hours. This includes some pockets of 3 inch plus amounts where topography has locally augmented the activity. As of 19Z/3 PM, a bulk of these moderate intensity rains have moved north of I-66 and continue edging toward the Mason-Dixon Line. Off the south, the radar presentation suggests a mixture of scattered light showers or drizzle. However, this lull is expected to be somewhat brief in nature ahead of the main surface circulation which arrives an hour or two before dusk. Looking through the latest 12Z high-resolution models, there continues to be a signal of heavier rainfall accompanying the remnant circulation of Isaias. There appears to be some sort of comma-head feature that contains enhanced lift and moisture convergence. Unlike earlier rainfall elements, this could be a bit slower moving and more focused. 3-hour totals could push into the 1 to 2 inch range where this deformation-like band of rainfall forms. The focus seems to be somewhere across the central Virginia Blue Ridge into the adjacent Piedmont region. As such, have opted to maintain the Flood Watch despite the multi-hour lull in between the two rounds. While a non-zero threat for low-topped tornadoes exists, the overall probabilities have decreased given the stable air mass in place. The Storm Prediction Center shifted the Slight Risk to near I-64 and points southward, with a Marginal Risk extending up to the Mason-Dixon Line. Although low-level shear is nearly off the charts, the general lack of instability will make for a tougher thermodynamic environment to work with. If any instability did materialize, it certainly would not take much for a quick spin up to occur late afternoon into the evening. The entire complex of showers will continue to march eastward into the overnight hours. This is largely tied to the upper low currently swirling back over eastern Kentucky. Until this fully clears the region, expect continued low stratus and shower chances, along with breezy east/northeasterly winds and temperatures in the 60s. Any chance for sunshine largely will wait until midday Monday/Columbus Day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures through mid week, then a late-week cold front bring a drop in temperatures along with additional precipitation chances. After an active finish to the weekend, subsequent days will likely provide a warming trend along with more sunshine. In particular, Tuesday and Wednesday carry the potential for a return to the low 80s. There are even hints that some mid 80s are possible which seems reasonable as 850-mb temperatures may rise to around 16 to 18C. This is all in response to the building of heigheights in the wake of the offshore passage of Isaias. Upper-level ridging will start to transition into zonal flow Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry cold front, which will cause temperatures to drop on Thursday. However, conditions still remain generally mild during this time with highs in the low-to-mid 70s through Friday. While a few rain showers are possible Thursday and into Friday, dry air ahead of and behind the front likely limit overall spread & duration. Looking towards the end of the week, a deep upper-level Canadian trough will traverse the Great Lakes before moving through the East Coast. Model guidance varies significantly on timing and impacts of this system. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) & related ensembles currently has the low passing just north of the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and into Saturday, whereas the GFS/GEFS shows a much deeper digging trough moving through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the weekend, with a sharp drop in temperatures following it. Given this uncertainty, the outlook for the upcoming weekend remains largely uncertain regarding any precipitation, although a general cooling trend can likely be expected as the low passes through. Marine Although the east to southeasterly winds have somewhat abated across much of the marine waters, expect another ramp up heading into the evening/overnight period. This is in response to the remnant circulation of Isaias which leads to another surge of the wind fields. Given large amounts of low-level wind shear, a brief waterspout is certainly possible late this afternoon into the evening, especially across the more southern waters. Behind a cold front, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for much of Monday as northwesterly gusts up to 20 knots overspread the waters. This largely falls off into the night before winds shift to southerly by Tuesday. Some southerly channeling effects may require additional advisories, but this may be somewhat close to criteria. Winds could fluctuate in & out of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria between Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front passes through. A potent upper-level trough will bring winds up on Friday, potentially approaching gale conditions should current guidance persist. Westerly winds shift northerly Thursday morning, then southerly on Friday as the low passes through. Tides / Coastal Flooding Increasing onshore winds and elevated tide levels due to the New Moon will result in coastal flooding during the high tide this afternoon to evening. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for a number of locations. At this point, Annapolis should see water levels fall short of Moderate flood stage. Water levels quickly decrease Monday morning as offshore winds follow. By Tuesday, some snap back is possible as winds shift to southerly which would bring a few locations back into Action stage. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ016. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for VAZ057. Flood Watch until 2am EDT Monday for VAZ036>040-050-051-501- 502-507-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm to 11pm EDT this evening for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. |
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