Marine Weather Net

Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast








5 - 10

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ540 Forecast Issued: 633 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024

Today...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Mon...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain.
Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely.
Tue Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely Through The Night. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024

High pressure will briefly build overhead through Monday. Low pressure developing near or just offshore of the Carolinas will move northward along the East Coast Monday night into Tuesday, with another slightly stronger area of low pressure following a similar course Wednesday into Thursday. A third and even stronger area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys Thursday into Friday, then track near or over the Mid- Atlantic through the upcoming weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
With light to calm winds and ample low-level moisture in place, fog has developed across much of the forecast area early this morning. The fog is locally dense, especially along the I-81 corridor, and also near Frederick, MD. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect for these locations through 9 AM. Additional fog may develop elsewhere prior to daybreak. Any fog should burn off by around mid-morning.

High pressure will slowly progress offshore this afternoon as mid-upper level ridging continues to build in aloft. There are some mid-level clouds scattered about the area early this morning, and additional stratocumulus should develop in response to daytime heating by this afternoon. It will be a mild day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Additional low clouds or fog may develop again tonight. Some drizzle may also be possible along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge as weak easterly flow starts to develop at low- levels. Lows overnight will be in the 40s.

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Low-level easterly flow will maintain a marine influence within the boundary layer on Monday. As a result, mostly cloudy skies are expected, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Further west, more frequent breaks in the cloud cover are expected. It will be yet another mild early March day, with highs generally in the 60s.

By Monday night, a mid-upper level disturbance and its associated weak area of low pressure at the surface will approach from the south. The system is rather small and largely removed from stronger steering flow off to our northwest, so there is still a considerable amount of spread with respect to its track. The majority of guidance shows rain overspreading areas to the east of the Blue Ridge Monday night, with lesser chances further to the west.

Rain may linger to the east of the Blue Ridge through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are expected during the afternoon, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. The next system will approach from the Tennessee Valley by late Tuesday night. Precipitation should hold off until after sunrise for most of the forecast area, but rain may break out across the Central Shenandoah Valley and Central Virginia by late Tuesday night.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Troughing over the Southeast U.S. tucked under ridging in southeastern Canada will spawn another surface wave of low pressure that looks to ride up the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Given this system is still a few days out, there is still some track and timing spread among the various pieces of computer guidance. From a pattern standpoint, persistent onshore flow near the surface with flow emanating from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will advect anomalous moisture into the region. Although not particularly strong, this advection pattern should still yield PWs in excess of 1.25 inches, over 2 SD above normal for early March. There are also some hints of limited instability (mainly rooted above the surface). These factors lend to a marginal flood threat especially for the typically more vulnerable urban areas near/east of I-95. The flood threat could increase if this system trends more amplified, and/or if the higher end rainfall potential is realized with the Monday night into Tuesday system which would increase soil saturation.

A much stronger trough - part left over from the system currently affecting the West Coast, and another part from an upper-level low currently over the Gulf of Alaska - is forecast to push toward the eastern half of the CONUS by the end of the week. Stronger low pressure and moisture advection would be probable in this setup, given the stronger overall jet pattern surrounding it. Some guidance (like the 03/00Z GFS) has enough cold air bleeding into the region in the wake of the mid week system(s) that wintry precipitation comes into the picture, though with a lack of a signal for more persistent deeper cold this scenario appears to be a bit less likely, especially outside the higher elevations (typical of March).

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds are expected through the day Monday. The winds will be predominantly out of the south today into tonight, and then out of the east tomorrow. Winds will increase Monday night as low pressure approaches from the south. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may be possible in easterly flow Monday night. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected again on Tuesday.

East to northeast winds are forecast to increase around low pressure moving up the coast Wednesday into Thursday, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Periods of onshore flow are expected around multiple waves of low pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday into Thursday. Although generally on the light to modest (i.e. 20-25 kt gust) side, the semi-prolonged nature of the onshore flow coupled with lowering pressure and rising astronomical tides could result in near minor flooding along vulnerable shoreline heading into midweek.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for MDZ003-004. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for VAZ025>031. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for WVZ052-053.