Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Tonight...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain. Patchy Fog. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928am EDT Monday September 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Gale Watch has been issued for the waters around southern Maryland for the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Cloudy and cooler conditions are expected through mid-week, along with daily chances for showers. - 2) Daily shower chances, abundant cloud cover, and cool temperatures continue through Thursday. Drier this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Cloudy and cooler conditions are expected through mid-week, along with daily chances for showers. Conditions will turn out mostly cloudy today. Temperatures will be cooler than previous days, and conditions will also be less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the 60s. There could be a substantial gradient in temperatures from northwest to southeast today. Western Maryland and the West Virginia Panhandle will likely struggle to climb out of the 60s with thick cloud cover and higher coverage of showers. Locations along and east of I-95 may make it into the upper 70s to near 80 with lower coverage of showers and a few more breaks in the cloud cover. High pressure already in place to our north across southern Quebec will rapidly strengthen from the upper 1020s hPa today to near 1040 hPa by tomorrow night. As this occurs, northeasterly flow will strengthen and the CAD wedge in place to the east of the Appalachians will strengthen. Large scale forcing for ascent will also gradually increase from west to east tonight into tomorrow as a shortwave trough and embedded upper low approach from the Ohio Valley. As large scale forcing for ascent increases, the relatively low coverage of showers today will increase substantially heading into tonight, and persist through tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Wednesday morning. At times, the precipitation may even resemble more of a continuous stratiform rain shield as opposed to showers. The flow pattern across the CONUS over the next couple days will be extremely complex, with a split flow pattern and a closed upper-level ridge building to the north of the upper low over the Ohio Valley. So while the big picture of the forecast tonight through Wednesday has high confidence (low clouds, cool, and rainy), there is still some forecast uncertainty regarding the finer scale details. A few model solutions attempt to produce several inches of rainfall over localized areas as we become positioned in the right entrance region of a strong jet streak developing off to our north and east, but there is lots of model to model inconsistency as to if that will occur and where. As of now, the most likely scenario appears to be for most of the region to receive 1-2 inches of rainfall spread out over a prolonged period time tonight through Wednesday morning. If this were to occur, the rainfall would be beneficial in nature given the ongoing drought conditions. However, if the solutions that produce isolated totals of 3-6 inches were to play out, there could be localized issues with flooding. Even if the solution with higher end totals plays out, instantaneous rainfall rates won't be overly high given the lack of instability, so it would be more of a prolonged soaking rainfall leading to areal flooding, as opposed to thunderstorms producing flash flooding. We'll continue to monitor this potential as we move forward. Either way, Tuesday and Wednesday will feature low clouds, gusty northeasterly winds, and well below normal temperatures. Temperatures likely hold in the 60s on Tuesday, and may even struggle to get out of the 50s on Wednesday as the CAD wedge reaches its peak strength. KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily shower chances, abundant cloud cover, and cool temperatures continue through Thursday. Drier this weekend. A persistent wedge-like pattern will remain through at least Thursday as wedging/blocking high pressure remains up across eastern Canada and coastal low pressure strengthens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will lead to persistent onshore flow as a series of shortwave disturbances pivot around the coastal low offshore and the remnant stalled frontal boundary south/east of the region. The persistent northeast/east fetch off the Atlantic will yield continued cloudiness, minor to (potentially moderate) coastal flooding (along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay), cool temperatures, and widespread shower chances. With a persistent wedge in place, expect highs to struggle to get out of the upper 50s and mid 60s through at least Friday. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s and 50s given the cool maritime airmass overhead. Coastal low pressure will track northward toward the NJ/Long Island coast Friday into Saturday putting more subsidence over the region. This will allow for decreasing precipitation chances and rising temperatures with highs in the upper 60s and mid 70s. Even with that said, model discrepancies remain beyond Saturday as the coastal low looks to retrograde in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Current 00z members have the low meandering up toward the Jersey Shore Saturday before dropping it back south toward the Delmarva Sunday into the early part of next week. This would lead to abundant cloud cover in place along with continued chances for showers, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge/closest to the low pressure system. It's not until the middle of next week (i.e September 30th) when the pattern looks to flip again as a stronger front looks to cross the region. Temperatures will remain near normal through the remainder of the extended period with above normal precipitation expected. Marine Small Craft Advisories remain in effect in the main stem of the Bay through noon within northerly flow. There will likely be a small lull in the winds this afternoon before they pick up again in earnest within northeasterly flow later tonight into tomorrow as high pressure strengthens to our north. A prolonged period of northeasterly winds is expected through Wednesday with that area of high pressure in place. Small Craft Advisories have been issued again starting tonight and continuing through Tuesday night. At least high-end Small Craft Advisory gusts will continue within northeasterly flow through at least Wednesday. Gale gusts can't be ruled out late Wednesday into Thursday across the waters surrounding southern Maryland. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Friday due to increased onshore north to northeasterly flow. Expect gusts between 20-25 kts with 30 kt gusts sporadically sprinkled over the middle and open waters. On and off showers are also possible at times as multiple shortwave disturbances pivot through. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will likely continue through the weekend as low pressure remains off the Mid-Atalntic coast. Strongest gusts will be over the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac River. Tides / Coastal Flooding A cold front will pass south of the waters today. North to northeasterly flow will lead to decreasing anomalies today, with no coastal flooding anticipated. That will be short-lived, however, as tides are expected to snap back to the north, with anomalies rapidly rising again later tonight through the day tomorrow. Elevated tide levels are then expected through much of the week as a strong area of high pressure builds to our north, leading to persistent onshore flow. The wind direction will be closer to northeasterly rather than easterly, so the tidal levels are expected to increase with southward extent in the Chesapeake Bay. Many locations will likely reach Minor Flood Stage on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Annapolis could come close to flooding tonight as well. Moderate flooding can't be ruled out at some locations, especially Annapolis. A coastal low is expected to develop offshore later this week, potentially prolonging coastal flood concerns. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ531>534- 539>541-543. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for ANZ533-537-541-542. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Tuesday to 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ535-536. |
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