Marine Weather Net

Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ540 Forecast Issued: 633 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
Today...Nw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt...Becoming Sw This Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt... Increasing To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 2 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316am EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through this evening. Low pressure will move into the Midwest tonight before passing by to the west on Sunday. A warm front associated with the low will move into the area Sunday and the cold front associated with the low will pass through Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure will return for early next week, but a stronger cold front may impact the area during the middle portion of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
High pressure overhead early this morning will gradually move off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon into this evening, a light northwest flow this morning will gradually turn southerly this afternoon. There may be a few high clouds today, but plenty of sunshine should persist. This will allow for another mild afternoon with max temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s for most areas (40s in the mountains).

Closed off low pressure in the southern stream of the jet will move from the southern Plains into the Midwest tonight while high pressure continues to move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The warm front associated with this low will track through the southeastern CONUS tonight. Ahead of the warm front, plenty of moisture and warm air will overrun cooler air near the surface. High and mid-level clouds will increase tonight and rain will likely move into the area toward morning. The best chance for rain will be across the Potomac Highlands into central Virginia.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Low pressure will pass by to our west Sunday. Rain will quickly overspread the entire area Sunday morning as southern stream moisture along with warmer air overruns the surface cooler air in place ahead of the warm front. However, this system will become progressive as it gets caught in the jetstream and quickly moves off to our north Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Therefore, the dry slot associated with this system will move into the area during this time, causing precipitation to diminish from southwest to northeast. Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally around a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Sunday afternoon will turn out to be mild, especially in the Potomac Highlands and along/east of Interstate 95 where these areas are most likely get into the warm sector. Max temps will range from the 50s west of Interstate 95 to the 60s near and east of Interstate 95 as well as some of the valleys in the Potomac Highlands.

The cold front associated with the low will pass through Sunday night into early Monday morning. While a shower cannot be ruled out, much of the time will be dry and the better likelihood for showers will be along and west of the Allegheny Front due to an upslope component to the low-level wind. A few snow showers may mix in above 3,000 feet early Monday morning, but any snow accumulation will be light.

A blustery northwest flow is expected behind the cold front Monday, with a few rain and snow showers possible along and west of the Allegheny Front. High pressure will settle overhead Monday night, bringing dry and seasonable conditions. Winds will quickly diminish around sunset.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
On Tuesday, a split flow pattern remains over the CONUS, with the fairly zonal pattern becoming more meridional as a trough digs into the Northwest, and into the northern Plains by Wednesday, while broad ridging builds over the Southeast. As the trough progresses eastward into the Great Lakes, an associated cold front is expected to approach the area, bringing precipitation ahead of and along with it. Guidance suggests a fairly progressive system, moving out of the region by Thursday morning, though some models have lingering upslope showers into the afternoon. Gusty winds are possible as the cold front moves through. Following the exit of this system, high pressure is expected to build into the region once again.

Temperatures during the period start out slightly above average, with Wednesday being the warmest day ahead of the cold front (50s to low 60s for much of the area). Behind the front, temperatures drop to near or below normal.

Marine
Winds will diminish this morning over the open waters in the middle portion of the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) that is in effect until 11am may be able to be cancelled a few hours early. Winds may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) over the northern Bay around mid-morning for a couple hours or so as the mixing layer increases, but confidence is too low for any headlines at this time due to a weaker gradient and the winds not being aligned with height.

High pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and low pressure will pass by to the west Sunday. A strengthening gradient will cause southerly winds to increase. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for the Maryland Chesapeake Bay south of Sandy Point as well as the Tidal Potomac River south of Indian Head overnight. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for the entire Bay and its inlets Sunday and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Indian Head. Strong south to southwest winds are expected over the open waters Sunday with gusts around 30 knots. A few gale-force gusts are possible across this area, but confidence is too low to include any headline due to the relatively cooler waters. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed for the upper tidal Potomac River as well, and this will considered by later shifts, but there was still some uncertainty as to whether or not the warm front will clear those areas. If it stays just to the south and east, then mixing will be substantially less.

The cold front associated with the low will pass through late Sunday night into Monday morning. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will likely be needed Sunday night ahead of the boundary for at least the open waters. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the boundary Monday into Monday evening with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely.

Winds will primarily be out of the S/SE on Tuesday with winds below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will likely be needed Wednesday, however, as winds over the waters increase as a cold front moves through. Gale force winds are possible later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A southerly wind will increase Sunday into Sunday evening ahead of a cold front. This will cause anomalies to increase sharply, since gusty southerly winds are expected (20-30 knots). Minor flooding is possible around times of high tide later Sunday into Sunday night, especially across the northern half of the Bay from Annapolis northward.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ530- 531-538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EST this morning for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.