Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Se Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming S 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 958am EDT Sunday August 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have increased shower chances this morning across central Virginia up into the eastern West Virginia panhandle per ongoing radar trends. Although rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches are being observed in only 30 to 45 minutes, there have been no flood reports at this time. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Locally heavy rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. - 2) Sustained shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally heavy rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. A large upper trough over the western OH Valley this morning is forecast to slowly move east toward the Mid-Atlantic through the early part of this week. While the main mid-level energy of this system will pass by north of our area on Monday, a trailing wave of vorticity will stretch south along the Appalachians into the Deep South. A weaker cutoff mid-level low develops somewhere near the southern Appalachians Monday night. An associated surface boundary moves into the northern half of the area tonight, then stalls nearby through at least Tuesday before possibly lifting north as a warm front. To our east the Bermuda High remains squarely in place across the western Atlantic. Southerly flow is advecting deep tropical moisture into the Mid-Atlantic today, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) well over 2". For this morning, showers are already ongoing off to the west of I-95. The thermodynamic environment is very moist being characterized by a PWAT (Precipitable Water) value of 2.16" (per 12Z IAD sounding) which is fairly close to the daily maximum. Unsurpisingly, current shower activity along/east of I-81 have been efficient rainfall producers. A few personal weather stations in central Virginia reported 1 to 1.50 inches of rain in about 30 to 45 minutes. Will continue to monitor the incoming 12Z guidance to determine whether Flood Watches need to be expanded eastward. Many additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through tonight. The very moist environment will favor abundant low clouds which result in lower instability values, though cloud breaks could produce some areas of additional destabilization. Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Given the saturated environment, water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong winds are going to be the main severe threat. The likely higher threat is going to be the potential for flash flooding. Areas that see multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be most at risk, especially urban and poor drainage areas. A Flood Watch has been coordinated with the surrounding offices for areas along the Blue Ridge, central Shenandoah Valley, and Alleghenies. For the Alleghenies, the time period of highest concern is likely this afternoon as the frontal boundary moves into the area. Given the orientation of the boundary and how storms will progress along it (from southwest to northeast), there is the potential for training thunderstorms. A similar, though lower confidence scenario, could play out in the central Shenandoah Valley and along the Blue Ridge. Terrain enhanced convection could produce localized higher rain amounts on the eastern slopes of the ridge. Overall, rain amounts of 1-2" are likely, with localized higher amounts of 3-4" possible. For the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, there is concern for flooding as multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms move through late this afternoon into tonight. However, confidence remains low regarding exactly where any heavier thunderstorms develop. We will continue to analyze new model data this morning, so it is possible the Flood Watch is extended east into the metro areas. Showers and a few thunderstorms likely persist well into tonight, especially east of the Blue Ridge. KEY MESSAGE 2...Sustained shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week. For the start of the work week shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon and evening as we sit within the warm sector. Meanwhile, waves of low pressure will continue to pivot through as a stalled boundary sits just south and east of the area. Additional concerns for flooding may develop as the week progresses. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as an upper level low stalls over the Appalachians before slowly tracking eastward. As this system finally pushes offshore towards the end of next week, the lingering frontal boundary could produce potentially increased chances for severe weather. Medium- range machine learning outputs show an enhanced possibility between Thursday and Saturday as this system transitions offshore. As PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will remain elevated during this period (ranging between 1.5-2.1 inches), heavy rainfall as well as gusty to damaging winds will be likely hazards with any severe storms that do form. Given persistent ongoing drought within the region, flood threats will likely be isolated to poor drainage areas during any periods of sustained heavy rain. As this system stalls just south of the region during the week, temperatures will slowly increase and, combined with increased humidity during this period, could bring back elevated heat indices in the upper 90s across the metros beginning Wednesday. High pressure moves in overhead once any lingering frontal boundaries push offshore. Marine Southerly flow across the waters is producing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions this morning. Expect winds to remain elevated through tonight, then slowly taper off by Monday morning. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across the waters this afternoon to evening. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots. While winds are likely to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday and Tuesday, there will be additional afternoon to evening thunderstorms each day. Southerly channeling over the waters could produce SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions in the afternoon/evening hours both Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers & thunderstorms are possible over the waters during this period due to a stalled front nearby. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies continue to rise, with sensitive locations reaching Action Stage to Minor Flood Stage during the astronomical high tide this morning. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Annapolis although water levels have begun to come down. South winds are forecast to persist for much of the week, so additional periods of coastal flooding are possible. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Monday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for MDZ014. Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ503-504. Flood Watch from 2pm EDT this afternoon through late tonight for VAZ025>027-029-036>040-507-508. WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ050-055-501>506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Monday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536. |
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