Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ534 Forecast Issued: 638 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Today...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Thu...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain.
Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020

Synopsis
High pressure continues to move overhead today and and will gradually transition offshore by Friday. Low pressure will approach the region from the central United States late Friday, before slowly moving northward towards New England during the second half of the weekend. High pressure will return early next week.

.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Upper level ridging over the Midwest will continue to move eastward. Latest surface analysis shows the associated surface high setting up directly overhead. Therefore, expecting clear skies and light winds throughout most of the day today. However some cirrus will begin to move into the region late this afternoon/this evening, associated with a low pressure system back towards the central US. Daytime temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s across the CWA. With the high still in control of the region, expecting another chilly night as radiational cooling ensues. However, not expected temperatures to drop as low as the previous nights, as cooling may be limited from the incoming cirrus.

Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
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Ridging will advance to the east on Thursday. Mid and high clouds will continue to advance ahead of a trough digging into the center of the country. High temperatures will be a bit warmer, with most locations will reach the 40s. Low pressure will be developing in the Mississippi Valley Thursday night. While a few ensemble solutions offer a faster solution, there is good consensus among deterministic models that the nighttime hours will remain dry in our CWA (and in fact probably well into the day Friday). Lows will be warmer but still below freezing in many locations.

Moisture/lift associated with the low will spread into the area on Friday. There will be some dry air to overcome, so a slow onset makes sense. And most of the day could turn out dry along and east of roughly US 15. If precipitation begins quickly enough, there could be some spots below freezing west of the Blue Ridge, though am unsure if it would be valley locations, or on some of the ridges depending on how the column saturates to the wet bulb. It should be warm enough aloft for any such precipitation to be freezing rain versus snow. At this time, however, am expecting the bulk of the area to just see rain on Friday, with temperatures largely in the 40s by afternoon.

As the closed upper low moves into the Ohio Valley Friday night, a new low is expected to develop along the trailing frontal zone, likely somewhere near Virginia. There will be a good surge of moisture and lift with this low, and at a minimum, a period of moderate to briefly heavy precipitation is expected. Rainfall totals could near an inch in some locations. What is uncertain is the thermal profiles during this time, and how quickly cold air will arrive on the back side of this system. Eventually, a changeover to snow will occur along the Allegheny Front. The question is whether the cold air can arrive east of there before precipitation begins to exit. Even so, were there to be snow Friday night, the chances should be confined along and west of the Blue Ridge, and most likely at the higher elevations. The event will turn more upslope in nature as the low pulls away, which is discussed further in the long term section.

Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Mid to upper level trough and its cut-off low will be pushing ENE from the Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, occluded low pressure system will move from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitation will be pushing from west to east on Saturday but conditions will be drying gradually through the day (except for the upslope areas). As this low pressure moves over our area and approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast, it will take a more NE track as it deepens. Lingering rain or snow showers possible into Saturday night. Greatest chance for any snow is at higher elevations, rain is expected elsewhere.

Low pressure will continue to move away from us Sunday into Monday. NW flow and shortwave energy aloft could bring additional upslope showers through Monday. High pressure will build over our area Monday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures during this period will be near or above normal for this time of the year with highs in the 40s and 50s (except at time over the ridges). Lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

Marine
North/northwest winds are finally starting to diminish on the waters as high pressure approaches from the west. By later today into Thursday, winds will become more northeasterly and should remain 10 kt or less. Winds will gradually increase Friday as low pressure approaches from the west, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming possible Friday night.

Periods of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible Saturday into Monday with low pressure moving across our area Saturday. Winds will increase behind this system Sunday and remain it into Monday with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible during this time.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.