Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less...Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sat...Se Winds Around 5 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033am EDT Wednesday Oct 21 2020
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the work week. A cold front is expected to cross the Saturday evening. Another a cold front will cross the area during the middle of next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Areas of dense fog is lingering along and east of I-95, where it is most dense. Dense Fog Advisory extended until Noon today for these zones and a little farther to the west. Once the fog dissipates late this morning, sunshine should allow for our temperatures to rise near 80 degrees in some places as surface to upper level ridge crests over the area.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Fair weather conditions will continue through the end of the week as ridging persists. Areas of dense fog will continue to develop each morning due to onshore flow. Some guidance are hinting at some drizzle late Fri night along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Temperatures will not be as warm like today as ridge pattern begins to break down Fri into the weekend, but still mild.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Model guidance is finally starting to come into better agreement with respect to the long term period.
By Saturday morning, a broad longwave trough will be situated off to our northwest, spanning much of Canada, as well as the north-central US states. A shortwave embedded within the larger trough, along with a corresponding area of low pressure will be tracking across northern Quebec, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward from northern Quebec into the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. This cold front will slowly trek through our area on Saturday, but mid-upper level forcing for ascent will be lacking, with no discernible shortwaves passing through. As a result, only a few passing showers are expected, especially in association with the frontal passage itself. Temperatures should climb into 70s before the front moves in, but should drop sharply thereafter. The front will sink to our south Saturday Night into Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies should persist during that time, but chances for showers may be at a relative minimum. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday to the north of the front, with highs in the 60s.
By Sunday Night, one disturbance will track over the Great Lakes, leading to the development of an area of low pressure to our north, while another shortwave digs over the southern Rockies. Eventually, this shortwave over the southern Rockies is expected break away from the stronger westerlies to the north and become cut off. This is a substantial change compared to yesterday, and will preclude the development of a deeper trough, as was suggested in the guidance yesterday. With the main northern stream disturbances tracking off to our north, and the cutoff being deposited well to our southwest, the chances for a higher impact event look much lower compared to yesterday. Continued mild conditions are expected, along with chances for showers on both Monday and Tuesday.
Dense fog will be the primary marine hazard late at night and early morning through Sat morning.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected on both Saturday and Sunday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for DCZ001. MD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ005-006-011-013- 014-016>018-503>508. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ052>055-057-502- 506. WV...None. MARINE...None.