Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming S Late. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 3 Ft...Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Subsiding To 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938pm EDT Wednesday April 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorms have largely moved through the forecast area. Temperatures have been adjusted for tomorrow, with forecast high temperatures coming down by 10-15 degrees in some locations relative to the previous forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm conditions. - 2) A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm conditions. As of 9 PM, earlier showers and thunderstorms have largely progressed off to our east. Showers and a few weaker thunderstorms linger across north-central and northeastern Maryland. This activity will progress off toward the east and move out of the forecast area over the next few hours. There is another complex of thunderstorms across southern and central Virginia. These storms could potentially clip the Fredericksburg area toward southern Maryland over the next few hours. Another area of showers and storms is located across far western Maryland and northern West Virginia. This activity will likely weaken and move over northwestern portions of the forecast through the first half of the night. A backdoor cold front will drop southward through the forecast area tonight. Low clouds will build in to the north of the front, and some patchy fog may also be possible later tonight. This front will have a huge impact on our forecast for tomorrow. Central Virginia and the Central Shenandoah Valley may stay to the south of the front and could see temperatures rise into the 80s beneath of mix of sun and clouds. Northeast Maryland will likely have temperatures hold in the low 50s beneath cloudy skies. In-between there will be a very sharp gradient in temperatures in the vicinity of the front. Most solutions favor the DC Metro ending up on the cool side of the front, with low clouds through much, if not all, of the day. New temperature guidance was loaded in this evening, which dropped forecast high temperatures tomorrow in the DC Metro by 10-15 degrees. A few showers or storms may form near or to the north of the front tomorrow afternoon, but likely won't pose any threat for severe weather. The aforementioned front will lift north of the area for Friday and Saturday, allowing near record temperatures to advect northward into the area within southerly low-level flow. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low 80s on Friday, and then mid 80s on Saturday. While a stray afternoon shower or storm can't be ruled out across northwestern portions of the forecast area either day, the vast majority of the time will remain dry. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early next week. Not too much has changed in the model outlook concerning Sunday's frontal system. The GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are still well aligned on a significant upper trough moving through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region this week culminating in a strong cold front moving across the East Coast on Sunday. The most likely impacts to the Mid Atlantic from this are widespread rainfall throughout the region (several tenths of an inch) as well as a sharp drop in temperatures, with potentially a 15-20 degree drop overall in temperatures. The thunderstorm risk is still extremely marginal at this time. NCAR's Medium Range AI Convective Hazards outlook still shows a chance of thunderstorms associated with this front, although it's 15%-30% probability has shifted slightly south since yesterday. Thunderstorms are still something to look out for over the next couple of days, but the primary impacts still remain widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures as the front tracks eastward. Marine Storms are making their way to the east of the waters currently. While an SMW or two can't be ruled out overnight, much of the night will remain quiet over the waters. Easterly winds are expected over the waters tomorrow, before winds turn southerly for Friday and Saturday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed in southerly flow at times on Friday and Saturday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely on Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the region. Widespread rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, with winds shifting northwesterly by Monday in the wake of the front. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may still be necessary on Monday, but should gradually decrease as the day progresses. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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