Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Se Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 311am EDT Sat April 27 2024 Synopsis Surface high pressure moves south along the eastern Appalachians today. A warm front lifts through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a series of cold fronts Tuesday into Wednesday next week. Near Term - Through Tonight A surface high just south of the southern coast of New England slides south parallel to the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight. A weak mid-level disturbance rides atop the crest of a deep ridge aloft that is building into our area from the south. This brings a period of scattered to widespread showers this morning into the late afternoon. The highest rain chances will be west of US-15 and north of Route 33, though most will see at least a few light showers. Cloudy skies keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Conditions dry out from west to east this afternoon, with precipitation exiting the area by early evening. Milder lows tonight in the upper 40s to 50s. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Well above normal temperatures Sunday into Monday as a deep ridge moves across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, then mid to upper 80s Monday with a few spots hitting 90F. Even in the mountains, highs are forecast to reach the 70s both days. A couple of climate sites could tie or be near their daily record highs for April 30 / Monday. Very mild overnight lows mostly in the 60s, with 50s in the mountains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday High pressure moves offshore Tuesday and a weak cold front approaches from the west with increased cloud cover, resulting in temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday, but not much relief in the scheme of things. Highs well into the 80s are currently forecast for the duration of the extended with lows in the 50s and 60s. Showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front in the afternoon and evening and some could be strong to severe. Decent instability will be available by the afternoon, but guidance has been weaker on the shear. Recent runs have been consistent with the better bulk shear (even then, only ~30 kt) in the morning/early afternoon and generally along the Alleghenies (morning) and west of the Blue Ridge (afternoon). As it stands, with decent CAPE not present until the afternoon, early afternoon around the I-81 corridor seems the most favorable for strong/severe storms, if any. Threat is marginal for now but will continue to monitor. A weaker shortwave moves through on Wednesday, and guidance has backed off further on the shear/CAPE environment Wednesday, so some showers seem more likely than thunderstorms. The remainder of the week continues to look hot and unsettled with a series of weak disturbances passing through, and severe environment is similarly modest. Marine Winds continue to slowly decrease over the waters early this morning, so the Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire. Southeast to south winds around 10-15 knots continue most of the day. Southerly channeling is expected to produce SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions once again late this afternoon into tonight, mainly in the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Some surrounding tidal rivers and bays on the Eastern Shore could see SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds this evening, though confidence is too low to issue a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, keeping winds below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Winds vary from southwest to west at or around 10 knots. Southerly flow on Tuesday pick up and turn westerly behind a cold front on Tuesday and may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by the afternoon. Additionally, stronger gusts will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms passing over the waters. Winds diminish and become northwesterly on Wednesday, but some showers could bring higher gusts to the waters. Tides / Coastal Flooding Onshore/southeast winds will keep water levels elevated through Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories are currently in effect for DC/SW Waterfront, Annapolis and Straits point. Additional advisories could be added for the Saturday morning high tide. Beyond that, additional flooding becomes less certain. While flow remains south/southwest, high pressure and light winds may allow for gradual draining of water from the estuary. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 4am EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537-543. |
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