Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ534 Forecast Issued: 1035 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Wed Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
755pm EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2024

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week, resulting in a prolonged period of heat. The hottest days will be Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Near Term - Through Wednesday
The few lingering afternoon showers dissipated very early this evening. The cu field has mostly collapsed as diurnal heating abates, and with that the Heat Advisory has also been cancelled. Dry conditions overnight as the center of an upper high drifts north and settles overhead. Lows tonight settle into the 60s for most, with 70s metros and immediate shoreline.

Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night
Center of upper high will be overhead Wednesday and Thursday promoting large scale subsidence/sinking motion and inhibiting t-storm development everywhere. Guidance indicates slightly lower temps and dewpoints Wednesday likely as a result of low- level flow coming off of the Atlantic Ocean and not from a continental trajectory. Moderating a few degrees Thursday as the ridge shifts back south.

Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
Upper level ridging along the East Coast will flatten out as we head into the weekend. As this occurs, the 850 hPa high will shift to our south, which will cause 850 hPa flow to turn southwesterly. This will result in a more continental source region for the airmass and even hotter temperatures. High temperatures in the mid-upper 90s appear likely Friday through Sunday, with 100 degrees not entirely out of the question. Dewpoints will also increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s during that time, causing it to feel more humid than preceding days. Heat indices in excess of 100 appear likely during that time for much of the forecast area. There will be lesser relief at night as well, as overnight lows increase into the middle to upper 70s by the weekend to the east of the Blue Ridge (upper 60s to lower 70s further west).

The combination of rising surface temperatures and dewpoints, along with decreasing temperatures aloft as the upper ridge breaks down will lead to an increase in instability, decrease in capping, and a return to thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain relatively isolated on Friday, and primarily confined to locations west of the Blue Ridge. Thunderstorms coverage should increase slightly on Saturday as mid- level heigheights continue to slowly fall. Most model guidance shows a well defined upper trough tracking through the Great Lakes sometime during the Sunday-Monday timeframe, but there's variance in timing between the individual models. As large scale ascent associated with that trough increases, so will the coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Marine
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue through very late evening in the middle to lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac, where frequent gusts to 20 knots are expected. Elsewhere, occasional gusts to 20 knots are possible this evening.

South to southeast winds prevail through much of the week. Winds may near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in channeled southerly flow during the afternoon/evening hours on both Friday and Saturday.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Persistent southerly flow continues, and tidal anomalies are hovering near one foot above normal. Sensitive areas will reach action stage around times of high tide.

Climate
Hot temperatures are expected much of this week and especially this coming weekend. The hottest days appear to be Friday through Sunday when several records could be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high temperatures for today Jun the, 21st, 22nd, and the 23rd and the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Tuesday Jun 18th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 91F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 93F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 92F Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 92F Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 93F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 87F Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 94F

Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 96F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F

Saturday Jun 22nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1988) 99F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (1988) 99F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1988) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1933) 96F Charlottesville (CHO) 101F (1933) 99F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1988) 93F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1988) 97F

Sunday Jun 23nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 98F (1988) 96F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (1988) 97F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (2010) 95F Martinsburg (MRB) 100F (1934) 92F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1894) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1988) 94F

+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with the year displayed being the most recent.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534- 537-540-541-543.