Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...S Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Today...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Morning. Waves 4 Ft...Building To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt...Becoming W In The Late Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming Nw 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt Late. Waves 6 Ft...Subsiding To 4 Ft After Midnight. Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft... Subsiding To 2 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory has been added to much of the Allegheny Front on Monday evening through midday Tuesday. This is for a period of upslope snow showers behind the powerful cold front. Additionally, Wind Advisories have been issued across northeastern Maryland for this afternoon to early evening due to strong southerlies ahead of the convection. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area today, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. - 2) A period upslope snow showers are expected along and west of the Allegheny Front tonight into Tuesday. - 2) Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday before seasonable weather returns for the remainder of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. A possibly high-impact severe weather event may unfold across the Mid-Atlantic region today, especially during the afternoon to evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) area which extends from east of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the Chesapeake Bay. The one exception to this is northeastern Maryland which is in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) given the cooler bay waters could weaken approaching convection. The early morning surface analysis depicts a stout cyclone racing across northern Indiana which is accompanied by a squall line which has jumped out ahead of the cold front. Closer to the local area, a wavy frontal zone arcs from just south of St. Marys County westward across Richmond and back into southern West Virginia. While surface wind vectors are out of the east, the primarly low-level steering flow is from the south. Light overrunning showers continue to lift northward through the region. The combination of weak forcing and ample low-level stability is yielding rather scant rainfall totals, generally averaging under 0.10 inches. Otherwise, low stratus will remain a fixture in the early morning forecast which comes with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Ample poleward flow within the warm conveyor belt should help push this warm front north of the Mason-Dixon Line by just after daybreak. While the 00Z IAD sounding is now outdated, its vertical wind profile indicates precisely why the severe threat has a high ceiling today. The 0-6 km wind fields were characterized by substantial cyclonic turning of the winds with height, coupled with surface backed flow. In the net, this sounding yielded a 0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 506 m2/s2 which is off the charts. However, the profile lacked any instability, particularly headed toward the more stable overnight hours. Despite only being 12 to 18 hours out, the 00Z high-resolution model suite continues to show timing and evolution differences. There are a couple of areas to keep a close eye on: (1) The squall line racing across eastern Kentucky/Ohio right now (331 AM) and (2) The low stratus deck in place. In terms of recovery, this low cloud deck will need to erode to allow the 500 to 750 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to materialize. All signs point toward gradual erosion of these stratus clouds, but it may take until after the noon hour. Even then, these could just be breaks in the clouds. Any additional insolation through the day will help increase instability in the presence of substantial vertical shear (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots). The other aspect of the forecast references the upstream squall line. How long this holds on and its cirrus canopy overspreading the region will also play some roles in how convective development evolves. With the degree of deep-layer shear in place, any of the pre- frontal discrete cells will pose a risk of becoming a supercell. These would be most conducive to producing a tornado, particularly if the enlarged 0-1 km and 0-3 km hodographs hold as true as forecast soundings depict. However, some of the high-resolution guidance show a slew of cells firing up at once which would favor more competition amongst them. This would diminish the tornado risk as multicell convection dominates. At the same time, another squall line is likely to form off the higher terrain this afternoon. While the vertical shear vector does not align perpendicular to the forming line, enough angle between the two should favor evolution into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). These are prone to producing spin up tornadoes along any kinks in the line. Where this line bows out is where the 70 to 80 mph wind gust possibliity will be maximized. All of this slides eastward at a fairly hefty speed, perhaps 40 to 50 mph. Severe convection is expected to near the I-95 corridor during the evening rush hour before exiting the Chesapeake Bay by the early/mid evening hours. Some weakening is possible east of I-95 as the system begins to ingest the colder Chesapeake Bay waters. Outside of convection, conditions will be gusty today as a deep surface low tracks across the Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly flow may gust to 30 to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 50 mph in the mountains. Additionally, this also could occur in northeastern Maryland given this region stays in the warm sector longer and perhaps free of convection. Wind Advisories are in place across these areas which may see 50 mph gusts outside of any convection. Eventually a powerful cold front will usher in a cold and blustery air mass to the region. Gusts may be strong enough in the mountains to support additional Wind Advisories. All and all, ensure everyone has multiple ways to receive hazardous weather information from the National Weather Service. When it comes to Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, know where your safe place is and remain there until the storm has moved through and alerts have ended. KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of upslope snow showers are expected along and wets of the Allegheny Front tonight into Tuesday. Behind the powerful frontal system, a period of upslope snow showers are expected for those along and west of the Allegheny Front. From this evening into Tuesday morning, 2 to 3 inches of snow will be possible over western portions of Grant, Pendleton, and Garrett counties. A future update could include western Highland County if forecast trends continue. As temperatures come crashing down through the evening and night, there will be a flash freeze potential as lows plummet into the teens. This comes with wind chills dropping into the lower single digits. While some of this snowfall spreads downstream off the terrain, the dry nature of the air mass to the east should limit any resulting snow accumulations. KEY MESSAGE 3...Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday before seasonable weather returns for the remainder of the week. It will feel like a cold and blustery winter day Tuesday in the wake of the strong cold front with upper troughing overhead. High temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal across much of the area. Wind chill values will be in the 20s and lower 30s. The latest forecasts for wind gusts would fall in the 30 to 40 mph range, but can't rule out some stronger gusts closer to Wind Advisory criteria in the mountains. It will also be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with some occasional upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies. Tuesday will be the coldest night of the stretch as winds drop off and high pressure builds overhead. Forecast lows range from the mid teens to mid 20s. Wednesday will be slightly warmer and with much less wind, but temperatures will still be below normal. A weak wave could bring some upslope snow showers to the Alleghenies Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures will continue to moderate for the latter part of the week with near normal temperatures Thursday and above normal Friday. A low pressure system will pass to the north toward the weekend, but it's uncertain if it will bring any rain, as well as whether there is a return to colder temperatures behind it or not. Marine Small Craft Advisories remain in place early this morning owing to the pronounced east to southeasterly flow. Eventually winds turn over to southerly with channeling effects possible. Gale Warnings go into effect across all waters this morning, while continuing through early portions of the overnight period. While mild air on top of cooler water is not ideal for vertical mixing, the robust wind field certainly could mix down at times. On the convective side of things, it will be an active weather day over the region. Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon/evening hours, many of which will require Special Marine Warnings. Given the degree of vertical shear in place, waterspouts will be possible as well with any supercells or waves in the approaching QLCS. To ensure safety, conditions will be very hazardous today and spending time on the water is not recommended. Behind the cold front, winds abrupartly shift to west- northwesterly which will necessitate Small Craft Advisories later tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain likely Tuesday in gusty westerly flow. A high end scenario would be close to gale conditions. Winds will diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead. Light south winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Increasing southerly winds ahead of a powerful cold front will cause a quick rise in tide levels across the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River. Sensitive locations are likely to reach or be close to minor flood during this afternoon/evening's high tide. Annapolis is forecast to be well within minor flood stage, and could reach oderate flooding if southerly flow is stronger as some of the model guidance suggests. Consequently, a Coastal Flood Watch continues at this location. Water levels quickly drop tonight as offshore winds take hold behind the front. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ008. Gale Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Tuesday for MDZ008. Wind Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT this evening for MDZ006-008-011-507-508. Coastal Flood Watch from 1pm EDT this afternoon through this evening for MDZ014. Wind Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ509. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EDT Tuesday for MDZ509. VA...Wind Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for VAZ503. Wind Advisory from 8am this morning to 2am EDT Tuesday for VAZ507-508. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-505. Wind Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543. Wind Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ530. |
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