Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt... Becoming N 10 Kt Late. Waves 3 Ft...Subsiding To 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301pm EDT Monday Oct 14 2024 Synopsis Cooler and drier air will filter into the area today on gusty northwesterly flow. Upper level troughing will persist into midweek allowing several shortwave disturbances to pivot through. Most locations will remain dry outside of a few upslope mountain rain and snow showers this afternoon through Wednesday. High pressure builds Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend across the region. Near Term - Through Tonight With the earlier cold front now offshore, the entire area is in the gusty post-frontal air mass. Continued cold/dry advection will ensure below average temperatures, accompanied by significantly lower humidity. Most areas are seeing gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph, locally approaching 40 mph in the higher terrain. While GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows sunshine amidst fair weather cumulus east of the Blue Ridge, areas to the west are blanketed by a thick area of stable wave clouds. Within the latter cloud deck, such locations are largely confined to the 50s (40s across the mountains). Regional radar imagery shows some light echoes entering far western Maryland. These showers, aided by an upslope component to the flow, will continue pushing toward the southeast through the afternoon and evening. Scant moisture available to these showers should limit total amounts to 0.10" or less. The loss of daytime heating will help decrease wind gusts by an hour or so after dark. With a broad synoptic pressure gradient remaining, some residual northwesterly wind is likely to stick around into the night. Coupling these winds with passing clouds should limit the coverage of potential frost formation. The best chance for this occurrence would be over northeastern Maryland. Consequently, a Frost Advisory goes into effect in Cecil County by 2am tonight. Forecast low temperatures fall into the upper 30s to 40s for most, with low/mid 30s along the Alleghenies. Some of the upslope showers may consist of embedded snowflakes across the highest elevations. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night While the parent upper low pulls away from the lower Great Lakes toward New England, a secondary shortwave is primed to swing across the Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Strong ascent with this system should allow for further upslope precipitation along with scattered showers downstream. With the most robust wind fields likely near the cloud tops, such winds may struggle to mechanically mix down to the surface. Thus, expect such showers to be of lower impact to areas east of the Allegheny Front. Recent high-resolution model suites show the best coverage south of I-66 during the late afternoon to evening hours. Meanwhile, upslope showers continue along the Alleghenies, which will mix in with snow at times during the evening to overnight hours. Light snowfall accumulations are possible depending on how much can stick to the ground. Forecast highs across the entire area will stay below average with readings in the 50s (upper 30s to 40s for mountain locales). The reinforcing shot of cold air with this secondary system should help bring some locations to around freezing by Tuesday night. Have opted to go with a Freeze Watch across the Central Shenandoah Valley from 2am until 9am on Wednesday. These more sheltered valleys tend to radiate well with much of the guidance supporting near 32 degree nighttime temperatures. Elsewhere, widespread mid/upper 30s are more commonplace which may come with a threat of frost if winds turn a bit lighter. The upper trough passing to the south will eventually move off the North Carolina coast midday Wednesday. As this occurs, heigheights slowly build in from the west as an expansive ridge approaches from the central U.S. Increasing subsidence over the local area will support much more sunshine than preceding days. Temperatures do stay cool with the lower thicknesses spread over the area. Expect forecast highs to stay within a degree or so of Tuesday's readings, albeit with increasing northwesterly winds. Afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are possible. Upstream surface high pressure eventually reaches the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday night. While skies turn mostly clear overnight, some residual winds may hinder the frost potential. However, near freezing temperatures remain possible across the Central Shenandoah Valley as well as the Central Virginia Piedmont. Further east, mid 30s are possible within the northern/western suburbs of D.C. and Baltimore. Long Term - Thursday Through Monday Large 1028-1032mb high pressure builds over the central Appalachians Thursday and maintains it's presence over the region through early next week. Dry conditions are expected as a result with decreasing winds and warming temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will sit between +4 and +8 degrees C Thursday moderating to around +10 to +14 degrees C Saturday into early next week. As a result, expect highs Thursday in the upper 50s and low 60s warming into the low to mid 60s Friday, and upper 60s and low 70 this weekend. Overnight lows will remain chilly in the 30s and 40s for both Thursday and Friday nigheights rebounding into the 40s and 50s this weekend. As for any additional frost and freeze concerns, the highest confidence appears to be on both Thursday and Friday morning mainly along and west of the I-81 corridor. This is due in part to high pressure overhead leading to a good radiational cooling set up over the region. Marine A persistently gusty northwesterly flow has overspread all marine waters behind a strong cold front. Most areas are seeing gusts up to around 25 to 30 knots, locally pushing into gale force at times. These appear most persistent over the upper tidal Potomac and central/northern Chesapeake Bay, which includes the adjoining tributaries. As such, Gale Warnings are in effect until 6pm for these areas while Small Craft Advisories continue elsewhere. As winds slowly weaken, such advisories gradually go away except for the southern waters which persist through the night. For Tuesday, west-northwesterly winds largely stay around 15 knots, but could approach 20 knots at times. The need for Small Craft Advisories is rather close. Behind the departing trough responsible for convective showers, another round of gusty northwesterly winds is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. Marine headlines are likely during that period. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue through early Thursday afternoon. North to northwest winds will gradually decrease from north to south across the waters as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure building over the region. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected late Thursday afternoon through the weekend. No marine hazards are expected with north to northwest winds running 5-10 kts through the rest of the extended marine period. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Gale Warning until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008. Frost Advisory from 2am to 8am EDT Tuesday for MDZ008. VA...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for VAZ025>027-029. WV...None. Marine Gale Warning until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>532-535- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-531-535-538>540. Frost Advisory from 2am to 8am EDT Tuesday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ532. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ536-542. |
Baltimore/Washington Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite