Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 10 Kt...Becoming Nw In The Late Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft... Building To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Building To 4 Ft After Midnight. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 3 Ft... Subsiding To 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 720pm EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters around southern to central Maryland overnight into Friday morning. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times from Friday through Sunday. - 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue Ridge early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times from Friday through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday afternoon into Friday evening before eventually pushing south of the area Friday night. Showers will likely reach western Maryland by the afternoon, progressing southeastward during the evening and into the night. Despite the warm temperatures, poor lapse rates aloft will limit instability, so few if any thunderstorms are expected. A westerly component to the flow could also result in downslope drying, and many models show showers becoming more scattered in nature with eastward extent. Rainfall amounts with this round will likely be less than a quarter inch for most locations. Strong high pressure will pass north of the area Saturday while the front stalls across the southeastern states. Southern stream moisture will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the north, but there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line between rain and no rain. Overall, Saturday probably has a better chance of being dry, especially the further north you go with strong high pressure set up to the north. A wave of low pressure will likely ride along the boundary Saturday night into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance of rain spreading northward into the area. Latest guidance has maintained a northward shift with rainfall coverage during this period. In the end, the details are far from solidified. However, any rain that does occur will likely exit the area Sunday evening. Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for most areas over the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue Ridge early next week. The true Fall feel sets in next week with highs and lows near to below normal. Monday will feature broad 1025-1028 mb high pressure building east from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes behind a departing upper trough.secondary cold front exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast. The frontal passage itself appears mostly dry with perhaps a lingering shower/sprinkle if any moisture is leftover. Breezy west to northwest winds will accompany the front with gusts 20-30 mph and high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s (upper 50s mountains). High pressure moves overhead Monday night into Tuesday allowing the winds to lighten and skies to clear. This will yield a prime radiational cooling setup, especially west of the Blue Ridge where widespread frost and freeze conditions are possible. Of particular concern is the high elevations and sheltered valleys (cold sinks) which could drop down to around freezing. Elsewhere, expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Locations near the water will be in the low 50s. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday night with widespread mid to upper 30s west of the Blue Ridge and north/west of the I-95 metro areas. These chilly conditions (concern for frost) are roughly 1 to 2 weeks earlier than average. Outside of the frost and freeze potential, dry conditions will prevail for much of the week with broad high pressure overhead. A cold front looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday, perhaps bringing a few showers to the mountains. Otherwise, another large area of high pressure returns for the weekend with warming temperatures heading into the following workweek. Highs Tuesday through Wednesday will likely be in the 60s (50s mountains), with lows in the 40s to near 50 (30s mountains). Thursday and Friday, highs warm back into the upper 60s to mid 70s (low 60s mountains) with lows in the 40s and 50s. Marine Southerly winds will uptick a little through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters surrounding southern to central Maryland through early Friday morning. A cold front will push southward Friday night, with advisories possible in the ensuing northerly flow through parts of Saturday. After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a second cold front pushes through on Monday. High end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible Monday into Tuesday in the wake of a departing cold frontal boundary. Northerly winds will gust 25 to 30 kts before dropping off Tuesday morning. A few gusts near gale force are possible if the stronger solutions verify. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected under high pressure Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds will switch from the north back to the south by the middle of next week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Some uncertainty continues to exist through Friday as tide levels remain elevated and subtly fluctuating. These small changes will make the difference in whether there is additional minor flooding. Alexandria, Dahlgren, Annapolis, and Havre de Grace have the greatest chance of reaching flood stage. An advisory has been issued for Annapolis where confidence is highest, but Havre de Grace may be very close later tonight, as well. The evening high tides are favored for any flooding since they are astronomically higher. A cold frontal passage should lead to declining water levels Friday night. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1am EDT Friday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 10am EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543. |
Baltimore/Washington Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite