Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 5 Ft. Showers Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Subsiding To 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011am EDT Monday Oct 13 2025 Synopsis A coastal low near the Carolina coast will move north along the Mid- Atlantic coast today. The low moves out to sea Tuesday into Wednesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday, followed by Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest late in the week. Near Term - Through Tuesday KLWX radar loop as of 10AM shows light precipitation/drizzle moving across the forecast area with visible satellite showing cloudy conditions areawide. A few breaks in the clouds can be observed in the southern portions of the Blue Ridge. The 12Z IAD sounding shows saturated conditions at the surface with low level RH of 96 percent paired with plenty of dry air aloft. No changes were made to the forecast with the previous discussion below. A broad area of low pressure is noted in satellite and surface obs this morning, stretching from eastern North Carolina to east of the Delmarva. A closed surface low should develop this morning within the broad frontal zone that spans from the Carolinas to Long Island. The low then drifts toward the southern NJ/DE this afternoon. Aloft, two troughs will phase over the Mid-Atlantic by tonight, then move offshore on Tuesday. This will finally drag the coastal low out to sea by Tuesday afternoon. Light rain / drizzle is going to continue across the area this morning, then it mainly focuses in the northern Shenandoah Valley and east of the Blue Ridge. Due to the light nature of the rain, amounts are forecast to be around one to two tenths of an inch. Other areas to the west could see occasional drizzle, but not expecting much in the way of accumulating rainfall. Winds increase late this morning through the afternoon as the coastal low moves closer to the area. Peak gusts are forecast to be around 25-30 mph. Cool conditions as highs struggle to reach the upper 50s to low 60s, except for areas south/west of I-64 where more sunshine lets temps rise to the upper 60s. The upper trough and coastal low start to pull away from the area late tonight as precipitation starts to end from west to east. A drizzle likely hangs on along/east of I-95 for the entire night, then tapers off after sunrise Tuesday morning. Lows tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with 40s in the Alleghenies. Dry conditions return to most of the area on Tuesday as highs warm to the lower 70s. Clouds and a few sprinkles hang around along and east of I-95 until Tuesday afternoon, then it should be dry for all locations come Tuesday evening. Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night A cold front moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, scouring out any lingering precipitation and bringing dry conditions. Seasonal temperatures for the middle of the week with Tuesday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs Wednesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. Breezy northwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph Wednesday afternoon. Turning colder Wednesday night as temps drop to the upper 30s to 40s. Some spots in the Alleghenies could drop to the mid 30s, though frost is not likely as winds stay elevated through the night. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday Surface high pressure builds over the east coast Thursday and Friday before shifting over the southeast Saturday and Sunday. Dry conditions can be expected each day as high pressure remains in control. With high pressure centered overhead, reduced sky cover and northwest flow will yield cooler temperatures and highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday. As high pressure shifts eastward, return flow will usher in moisture and warmer air leading to increased cloud cover and highs in the 60s and 70s for the weekend. Thursday will be the coolest day of the long term period with lows in the 30s and 40s across the forecast area. Temperatures warm slightly Friday night with lows in the 40s for most. For the weekend, southerly flow will yield low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Marine Gale conditions look to wane this morning, so the Gale Warning will likely be allowed to expire. As the coastal low drifts closer to the Delmarva this afternoon, there could be a slight surge in winds over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay due to northerly channeling. This could produce occasional gusts to gale force, but that will be handled with a Marine Weather Statement as it is not expected to be persistent. High-end Small Craft Advisories follow the Gales through tonight for all the waters as winds gust between 25-30 knots. The coastal low moves away from the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, then a cold front crosses the local waters on Wednesday. Winds remain elevated through at least the middle of the week, so expect additional Small Craft Advisories to be issued through Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisories are likely through Friday morning as winds over the waters gust near 20 knots. Winds diminish gradually on Friday and are expected to drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Friday afternoon. Dry conditions and no other marine hazards are forecast. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies have remained steady early this morning, and even dropped a bit in some locations. Any minor tidal flooding will be focused around Dahlgren, Straits Point, Solomon's Island for high tide later this morning/early afternoon. Other locations should peak in Action Stage or below any flood stage. The coastal low east of the Delmarva will move offshore tonight through the middle of the week. Strong N/NW winds are forecast to push tides out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions. The latest guidance is less suggestive of this outcome. Beyond that there is the possibility of waters levels sloshing back northward and leading to additional minor flooding during the middle of the week. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ535-536. |
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