Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Subsiding To 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200pm EST Sunday Nov 2 2025 Synopsis High pressure will move offshore through early Monday as a cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure will develop off the Carolinas and move northeast out to sea Monday night. High pressure will return Tuesday into Wednesday, then another cold front will cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will briefly build over the area again Thursday into Friday before another cold front approaches next weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight Waves of high clouds continue to pivot northeastward across the area, densest west of US-15. Near the Appalachians, some mid- level clouds have occasionally been popping out a few raindrops, but not much of consequence and likely not measurable. As surface low pressure develops off the Southeast coast tonight, high clouds will clear out west of I-81 while thickening to the east. Low temperatures plummet into the 30s for most west of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, while holding in the 40s to the east due to cloud cover. By late in the overnight, rain from the developing offshore low sends its northwestern reaches up into central Virginia and southern Maryland. Brief very light rain is possible into the DC and Baltimore metros and southeast suburbs by around daybreak. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks along the Carolina coast, precipitation chances linger for the I-95 corridor and into southern Maryland Monday morning. Dry conditions and increased cloud cover can be expected elsewhere. By Monday afternoon, low pressure and any associated rain should pull away to the east with gradual clearing expected. A cold front is forecast to cross the area Monday night. This will bring winds out of the northwest Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Some gusty winds are possible immediately behind the front Monday evening, especially over the higher terrain where breezy conditions could linger through early Tuesday morning. Downsloping flow is favorable to bring down some dry air Tuesday, so depending on how strong the winds are Tuesday could be a Fire Wx day (see section below). High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday An area of low pressure will slide by well to our north on Wednesday, pushing a dry cold front through the region into Wednesday night. Ahead of this boundary, gusty southerly flow is expected across the region, with gusts around 20-30 mph. A very dry air mass ahead of this front will yield very little moisture over the region, with only a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the Alleghenies at this time. Coming off of Tuesday's fire weather concerns, those will linger into Wednesday as well. See details in the Fire Weather discussion below. Temperatures will be above average for this time of year, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 for most (50s to low 60s in the mountains). Behind this system, another dry day can be expected Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Expect temperatures to come back down to the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains). By Friday, a more substantial upper trough starts to dig towards the Ohio Valley as high pressure retreats offshore. A stronger frontal passage is expected late Friday into Saturday, but exact timing still needs to be worked out as we get closer in time. At first glance, this system seems like it should be better connected to moisture coming out of the Gulf of America, and thus should result in some rain across the region. However, at this stage, it is too early for any exact details. Any shift in the surface and upper- level features at play could yield another dry frontal passage, which could lead to other hazards. So for now, this is just something to keep an eye on over the coming days. Marine Light southeast flow becomes northeast by late evening, then west to northwest by Monday morning. A cold front will cross by late Monday afternoon kicking up winds out of the northwest. A brief period of sporadic gusts 30-35 knots can't be ruled out immediately behind the front with forecast soundings indicating such winds around 1500 feet above the surface with a very shallow stable layer and notable pressure rises in the evening. Some of these stronger gusts may linger over the wider waters overnight. Residual SCA (Small Craft Advisory) caliber northwesterlies are expected through midday Tuesday, possibly a bit longer. Lighter winds are expected Tuesday night as high pressure builds. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday could result in gusts of 15-20 knots. The cold front should come through mainly dry Wednesday night, turning winds to the northwest. Speeds will increase with gusts of 20-30 knots possible through Thursday, diminishing Thursday night. There is an outside chance of gale conditions late Wednesday night into Thursday if the front comes through a bit stronger. Winds turn southerly Friday. Fire Weather A dry frontal boundary will push through the region on Monday, with a very dry air mass following in its wake on Tuesday. Winds will be out of the W to NW on Tuesday with gusts around 15-20 mph, mainly north of the I-66 corridor. Further south, and down into the Shenandoah Valley, winds will be closer to 8 to 14 mph or so. At any rate, this will be just enough wind, that when paired with RHs potentially into the teens and low 20s in a reasonable driest case scenario, causes some concern for potential hazardous conditions for wildfire spread. Recent rains have certainly been beneficial, but by this point we will be several days removed from that. Some breezy days have further allowed for drying of fine fuels in the region, especially when paired with the long term dryness. While this isn't a slam dunk day in terms of high end fire weather, it is certainly looking like it could be one of the driest days we have seen this fall so far. Winds will pick up substantially on Wednesday and turn out of the south. Typically this should result in a substantial increase in RH, but that isn't always the case, as will be seen on Wednesday. Current forecasts call for afternoon RH values in the mid to upper 30s in the valleys, owing to a very dry air mass in the source region of that southerly flow. When paired with 20-30 mph southerly wind gusts, this could result in another potentially hazardous day for wildfire spread. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Monday to 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543. |
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