Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Patchy Fog Late This Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night. Rain Likely After Midnight. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 15 Kt...Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 842am EST Tuesday Jan 6 2026 Synopsis An area of low pressure approaches from the upper Midwest today, then passes by to our north Wednesday. This will bring a dry cold front through the region. A warm front lifts into the area Thursday into Friday, followed by a strong cold front Saturday into Sunday. Near Term - Through Tonight MORNING UPDATE: Current observations across the region depict surface high pressure well offshore, with an area of low pressure located over the Midwest moving east. Temperatures across the region are generally in the 30s to low 40s, which is significantly warmer than this time yesterday due to the ongoing southerly flow and abundant cloudcover. Nothing has really changed with the forecast in the past several hours since the last update, so the previous discussion below can be referenced for more details on the upcoming forecast. PREVIOUSn area of low pressure over the central Great Lakes today will move toward the Northeast through tonight. To the south of the low, a pseudo warm front will lift north through our area this morning and early afternoon. Southeasterly flow behind the warm front will help highs reach the 50s, with around 60F possible in parts of the Shenandoah Valley. There is some model guidance hinting that this could allow for low clouds and/or fog to develop this morning along/east of I-95. This remains the most uncertain part of the forecast, but the clouds that do develop will hang around through the afternoon. This keeps north to northeast MD as the coolest part of the area, with highs only in the mid to upper 40s. Allegheny rain showers are expected to begin this afternoon, though most of the activity arrives tonight. The rest of the area is forecast to remain dry, though cannot rule out a few showers in the Potomac Highlands and along the MD/PA border tonight. Much milder tonight as lows settle in the 40s. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night The departing low pressure to our north will drag an associated cold front through the area Wednesday morning. Mountain rain showers come to an end by early afternoon as northwest winds behind the front usher in gusty northwest winds. Wind gusts around 20-30 mph are likely across most of the favored wind-climo areas (mountains and along/north of US-48/I-66). Dry conditions expected through Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s to low 60s. The frontal passage will only really be felt Wednesday night as lows briefly drop back to the 30s. A strong cold front approaches the area from the west Thursday night, and that could bring a few showers to the Alleghenies late in the night. Long Term - Friday Through Monday A closed upper ridge centered around Cuba into South Florida will maintain its influence across the Eastern Seaboard on Friday into Saturday. 500-mb heigheights should remain on the order of 1 to 2 standard deviations above average for early/mid January. The combination of this strong ridge and low-level south to southwesterly warm advection will promote abundant warmth across the region. The forecast has actually trended upward over the past 24 hours with widespread highs on Friday and Saturday well into the 60s. For mountain locations, temperatures remain mild with highs in the 50s. However, this does come with abundant cloud cover, periods of rain showers, and some breezy south to southwesterly winds. Neither day should be a complete washout, but be prepared for some wet conditions at times as showers push across the region. For overnight conditions, Friday night will mild behind an earlier warm front passage. Lows are forecast to be in the mid/upper 40s along the Alleghenies, with widespread 50s off to the east. While this could break some daily records of warm overnight conditions, colder air arriving late Saturday may thwart those efforts. As mentioned, temperatures will quickly begin to cool off on Saturday night behind a cold front that tracks through earlier in the day. Lowering heigheights with the trough coupled with a secondary cold front tracking through on Sunday should lower high and low temperatures to near average for Sunday into Monday. As the trough tracks overhead, a few scattered showers are possible on Sunday. Given the chillier temperatures along the Allegheny Front, some of this may come in the form of a rain/snow mix. Conditions dry out by Monday as the trough moves off into the western Atlantic. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through this afternoon. Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, which could result in near-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions in the middle Chesapeake Bay, but confidence is too low at this time for an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to be issued. Will continue to monitor that threat throughout the day. The cold front crosses the local waters Wednesday morning with increasing northwest winds behind the front. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Wednesday late morning to evening for winds gusting around 20-25 knots across all the waters. Winds decrease Wednesday night. Expect south to southeasterly winds on Thursday while staying below advisory criteria. A mainly south to southwesterly wind is expected for both Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. This will support the need for Small Craft Advisories during much of this time, particularly across the wide waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Gusts up to 20 to perhaps 25 knots are possible at times. By Saturday night, the cold front will shift winds over to westerly with some need for Small Craft Advisories as this occurs. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 5pm EST Wednesday for ANZ530>543. |
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