Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Ne. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Through The Day, Then Snow Through The Night. |
| Sun...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Snow Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow Through The Night. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 929pm EST Tuesday Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence for a significant/impactful winter storm with several inches of snow late Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, increased snow totals over portions of the Alleghenies late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning as a series of fronts pass through. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Increasing confidence of a significant winter storm across the region on Saturday into Sunday. - 2) Frigid temperatures are looking likely this weekend into early next week. - 3) Accumulating snow over portions of the Alleghenies late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing confidence of a significant winter storm across the region on Saturday into Sunday. Ingredients are slowly coming together to produce a potentially significant winter storm across the region this weekend. Based on the latest guidance, wintry precipitation arrives by Saturday evening and continues throughout Sunday, while possibly continuing into Sunday night. While deterministic guidance continue to show the run-to-run variability expected in such solutions, the overall trend has been bringing the higher amounts toward central Virginia. In a multi-day sense, global ensemble probabilities are very high in seeing 6 inches or greater, particularly south of I-70. This comes with the presumed snow-to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass. Ratios will be considerably higher yielding a fluffier snow. With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision. On the synoptic pattern side of things, many ingredients are in place to produce the mentioned winter storm. On Saturday, Arctic high pressure (1045-1050 mb) across the Midwest eventually reaches New England by the evening as a still robust 1040 mb anticyclone. This yields the familiar cold air damming wedge setup which stretches down into the southeastern U.S. Looking aloft, a split jet structure is evident with deep cyclonic flow in the northern stream and a progressive feature ejecting out of the Four Corners. The downstream confluent flow will aid in ample forcing across vast portions of the central/eastern U.S. While the main surface low sweeps across the Gulf Coast states, a broad area of isentropically driven precipitation spreads over the frigid air mass to the north. Precipitation type issues appear minimal through the event, although far southern Maryland could see some changeover to freezing rain or sleet at some point on Sunday. An energy transfer eventually unfolds Sunday afternoon/evening which focuses to deepening low pressure off the Outer Banks coast. Eventually this features pulls away from the coast late Sunday which gradually brings the brunt of the snow fall to an end. With the system not arriving until Saturday evening sometime, now is the time to prepare for this winter storm. Check back at the office website (weather.gov/lwx) as well as the winter page as the system moves into the Day 1-3 period (weather.gov/lwx/winter). KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid temperatures are looking likely this weekend into early next week. As mentioned in the winter storm section, Arctic high pressure takes charge over the weekend which yields frigid temperatures across the area. On Saturday, forecast 850-mb temperatures range from -15 to - 20C which even dry adiabatic mixing would keep surface temperatures below freezing. However, given the time of year and the fact 1000- 850 mb winds are northerly, mixing largely tops out around 900-mb. With that said, Saturday's high temperatures should struggle to escape the teens in most spots, with a few low 20s possible across far southern Maryland. Along the Allegheny Front, single digits are likely all that can be mustered. As snow comes in Saturday night, this will fall amidst temperatures in the single digits to lower teens. While a small increase in temperatures is expected on Sunday, it will likely not be noticeable with area-wide highs in the mid-teens to low/mid 20s. As snowfall comes to an end on Sunday night, the forecast calls for overnight lows in the single digits to lower teens. Looking ahead into the next work week, frigid conditions should persist. Depending on the degree of snowpack, the forecast may even be too optimistic in terms of "warmth". While daily highs next week are to push into the 20s, all could see low temperatures in the low/mid single digits on certain nights. Given elevated winds overnight, some locations along the Allegheny Front could see wind chills fall into the negative teens. - 3) Accumulating snow over portions of the Alleghenies late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A warm front will lift into the area Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front to follow Thursday night. This series of fronts will deliver a period of accumulating upslope snow shower/squalls across the Alleghenies late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected with moderating temperatures and breezy conditions. Highs Wednesday will push back into the mid 30s and low 40s after starting in the upper single digits and low to mid teens. Temperatures warm even more Thursday with widespread highs in the mid 40s and low 50s east of the Alleghenies under increased south/southwest flow. As for snow in the Alleghenies, totals have come up slightly even with marginal temperatures profiles. 18z/00z hi-res CAM guidance suggest a dusting -3" of snow along the western facing slopes of the Alleghenies between 18z/1pm Wednesday through 12z/7am Thursday. Precip should mix with rain below 2500 feet at the onset with all snow expected during the overnight period Wednesday into Thursday morning. Snow to liquid ratios look to remain at 9:1/10:1 increasing to 13:1 during the peak of the event. The bulk of the snow looks to fall during the warm frontal passage with upslope snow showers & perhaps a few squalls lingering into Thursday morning as a weak cold front swings through. Some instability has also been noted in the DGZ leading to the potential for near advisory level snow in far western portions of Garrett Co. (west of the Eastern Continental Divide) and down into portions of western Grant Co. These locations could see 2-4" of snow with localized amounts up to 5" along western favored slopes above 2800 feet (i.e Keysers Ridge, Piney Mountain, Hoyes Crest/Backbone Mountain). Confidence is medium for an advisory at this time and will likeLy be further evaluated on the overnight shift. Expect slick travel and delays along I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD and US-219 from the MD/PA line to WV line late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Further east downsloping will eat away at any precipitation chances outside of a rogue snow shower pushing toward the Catoctins/northeast MD as the front lifts through Wednesday evening. No accumulation is expected at this time as plenty of dry air will be hard to overcome east of the mountains. With the series of fronts pushing through expect wind gusts around 25-35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph along the ridges. Winds will gradually decrease Thursday night into Friday. Next chance of wintry precipitation arrives Friday, especially in locations south of I-66/US-50. This is due largely in part to strong isentropic lift/warm air advection ahead of the southern stream upper level low. This could lead to overrunning precipitation in the form of light snow or even a light wintry mix (rain/snow/sleet) across the central VA Piedmont and northern neck. Confidence in this remains low at this time, given recent model trends. Even with that said, something to watch given the dynamical setup in place before the main event this weekend. Highs Friday range from the teens over the mountains to mid 30s and low 40s east. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected through Wednesday morning with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions returning Wednesday afternoon and night under southerly channeling. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected at this time. Highest gusts look to be over the open waters of the bay/tidal Potomac. Winds will fall back below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for most of the waters Thursday into Thursday night under westerly flow. This will continue into Thursday night into Friday. Additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed Friday night. With Arctic high pressure pushing from the Midwest toward New England on Saturday, northerly winds will increase across the waters. Channeling effects look possible which may require Small Craft Advisories, especially across the wider waters on Saturday morning. After a brief lull as winds shift to northeasterly, gradients increase again on Saturday evening/night yielding additional 20 to 25 knot gust potential. These blustery winds continue into Sunday as winds turn northerly. Widespread snow impacts the waters Saturday evening through most of Sunday. There may even be a threat for some freezing spray given the frigid nature of the air mass and elevated wind fields. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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