Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Ne After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336am EST Monday Jan 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather headlines were expanded over the mountains. Meanwhile, the large scale pattern is beginning to look increasingly favorable for wintry precipitation this weekend. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Very cold conditions are expected over the region through Tuesday night. - 2) The potential for a possibly significant winter storm has increased for this weekend, but uncertainty remains. KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold conditions are expected over the region through Tuesday night. Some flurries or a few snow showers will accompany an Arctic front as it approaches the Alleghenies today, with sub-advisory level (less than 3 inches) snow expected. However, given the very cold conditions, it will stick to everything. For elevations generally above 3500 feet, wind gusts of 45-50 mph are likely today into tonight as the front passes. To the east, conditions should remain dry with passing clouds. Prior to the passage of the Arctic front, many lower elevation areas will make it into the 40s this afternoon with gusty southwest breezes. The reinforcing Arctic front will cross the Mid-Atlantic, moving offshore by this evening. In its wake, 850 hPa temps tumble to -15 to -20 C. This equates to surface temperatures in the teens by early Tuesday morning, with single digits at higher elevations. Combined with a blustery northwest wind, it will feel more like the single digits for much of the area, with wind chills of -10 to -20 at higher elevations (as cold as -30 above 3500 feet in the Alleghenies). Temperatures struggle to escape the 20s for much of the area Tuesday (teens mountains) with perhaps only portions of the central VA piedmont to southern MD poking above freezing for a few hours in the afternoon. It will moderate but remain colder than normal Wednesday ahead of another approaching front. KEY MESSAGE 2...The potential for a possibly significant winter storm has increased for this weekend, but uncertainty remains. The upper air pattern resembles what appears to be a very favorable pattern for a winter storm somewhere in the eastern U.S. heading into this weekend. Before that, a potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there could be significant wintry precipitation across our area sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile, there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend in that regard, but that doesn't mean it can't swing back in the other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely in the coming days as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas. Marine Waves of gusty winds will affect the tidal waters through midweek. Winds will gust 15-25 kts this morning out of the SW ahead of a front. W/NW winds gusting 20-30 kts are likely this evening, lingering overnight over the open waters. Additional gustiness is anticipated Tuesday, lighter Tuesday night. Winds turn southerly with 15-20 kt gusts possible Wednesday ahead of the next approaching front. This front should come through dry, with a secondary (dry) front Friday. Each of these fronts likely bring increases in winds across the waters. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for VAZ504-507-508. Extreme Cold Warning from 8pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for VAZ503. WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for WVZ050-055-502>504-506. Extreme Cold Warning from 8pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505. Wind Advisory from 8am this morning to 8pm EST this evening for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ535- 536. |
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