Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...E Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Wed...E Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 809pm EDT Sunday September 15 2024 Synopsis High pressure to the northeast will continue to impact the area through Monday. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to move northwestward or northward toward the Carolinas early this week, potentially bringing heavy rain and coastal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional rainfall is possible throughout the work week. Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning High clouds will continue to move further north and become more dense tonight, especially across central VA. Low clouds will develop again especially east of I-81 heading into Monday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night High pressure to the north will continue to influence the area locally through Monday evening, leading to mostly dry conditions. Moisture availability may be amplified across central VA, allowing for an isolated shower later in the day on Monday. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 for most of the lower elevations. Upper 60s will be more common across the mountains. Low pressure off the southeast coast is expected to begin moving inland late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expect initially stratiform light rain/drizzle by Tuesday morning as low-levels saturate and surface wedge erodes. Forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday still largely depends on eventual track of coastal low with NHC's specialized regional and consensus models indicating a track more across South Carolina and the southern Appalachians. Scenarios range from basically getting no rain to seeing multiple inches of rain during the Tuesday-Tuesday night time frame. At this time, some rain still appears likely Tuesday-Tuesday night time frame, but how much rain falls and how impactful it would be is still to be determined. For now, the expectation for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Tuesday night is widespread 1-2" with locally up to 6", with the higher amounts possible across the eastward facing slopes of the Blue Ridge. A lot may change within the forecast as the forecast track becomes more apparent. Continue to monitor our forecast locally as well as the National Hurricane Center. Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday Uncertainty in the forecast persists into the middle to latter portions of the week. The area of low pressure from earlier in the week is likely to be somewhere in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. However, there is general model agreement that the system should be in the process of weakening. Looking aloft, a broad mid/upper low lingers over the Mid-Atlantic down into the southeastern U.S. through at least Friday. Persistent cyclonic flow maintains daily shower chances, which may be accompanied by a threat for diurnally-driven thunderstorm activity. Heading into the weekend, upper ridging starts to settle over the Great Lakes and New England which pushes the cyclonic circulation further to the south. As a result, expect a gradual shift to drier conditions for the weekend. Surface high pressure settles into the eastern U.S. which helps lower humidity levels. Near average temperatures are expected through Friday before turning a bit cooler over the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday, forecast high temperatures fall into the low/mid 70s, with 60s over the mountains. There is sizeable ensemble spread but the downward trend in temperatures is pretty clear in the guidance. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will remain possible through Monday morning, mainly across the southernmost waters, then become increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday morning as gradient tightens in response to approaching coastal low and high pressure to the north. At this time, the risk of gale force winds appears low. As a weakening area of low pressure tracks through the area, winds will be out of the east on Wednesday before shifting to northeasterly on Thursday. While Small Craft Advisory caliber winds are not shown, some locations could stay close to 20 knots during the period. Tides / Coastal Flooding Onshore flow strengthens through Tuesday morning with minor coastal flooding becoming increasingly likely. Depending on the strength of onshore flow and the track of low pressure to the south/southwest, near moderate flooding may be possible at vulnerable shoreline locations late Monday through Tuesday. However, at this time, mostly all of the surge guidance available only indicates minor flooding occurring. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5am Monday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for DCZ001. MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 6pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2am Monday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Monday to 6pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Monday night to 6pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Monday to 6pm EDT Tuesday for VAZ057. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>532- 535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>532-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 543. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Monday to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ535. |
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