Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft...Building To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248pm EST Wednesday Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories have been expanded into the central VA Piedmont later this evening into early Thursday morning. A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued for light snow impacting the late afternoon and evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Light snow could impact the late afternoon and early evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued. - 2) Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills look to continue through the upcoming weekend. - 3) Continue to monitor the potential for winter weather this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow could impact the late afternoon and early evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued. Another weak northern stream disturbance will impact the area later this afternoon into tonight. This disturbance will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air along with another chance of snow showers over the mountains. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected outside of Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas where hi-res guidance continues to indicate a pocket of light snow showers/flurries impacting the late afternoon and early evening commute. Hi-res CAMS show a spike in moisture within the low levels as the day progresses on ahead of the shortwave pushing through. With that said, it looks like the moisture will fall out of the lower part of the atmospheric column (3-4kft above us down to the surface) with ample lift through the DGZ (from the shortwave/jet max pushing through). This should promote a period of light flurries or snow showers with limited accumulations under a half an inch. Despite several non- meteorological factors (i.e school closures, road crews already out/treating roads, and increased telework postures amongst businesses) went ahead and issued a Potential Commuting Hazard Statement for the Washington DC metro area. The corridor of concern sits between Hagerstown, MD and southern MD between 3-9pm. The probability for snow to occur is between 25-30 percent. If the threat materializes expect slick travel during the evening rush, especially on untreated surfaces. Cold temperatures may negate the extra treatment already on the roadways for snow stickage if it were to occur. Any snow shower activity will diminish east of the mountains after 8-9pm as the shortwave cuts east. For the mountains, expect another dusting-1" of snow with localized pockets up to 2" if any heavier snow showers push through. Did bump up amounts given the higher fluff (ratios greater than 30-40:1). Main story over the mountains will likely be the continuation of blowing and drifting of the fluffy snow. This will lead to continued issues on roadways, especially in open areas (i.e high mountain fields etc.). Continued to run blowing snow over the mountains in coordination with the neighboring offices through Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills look to continue through the upcoming weekend. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for later this evening through early Thursday morning. Portions of central VA (i.e Albemarle and Nelson counties) remain exempt from these advisories as guidance has trended slightly warmer in these locations (wind chills between 2-8 degrees). Another piece of northern stream energy will drive a reinforcing shot of Arctic cold across the region later this afternoon into tonight. Additional pieces of energy will follow within persistent cyclonic flow which is expected to continue through the upcoming weekend. This will result in a continuation of frigid conditions with highs during the daylight hours struggling to get out of the teens and 20s (single digits mountains) and overnight lows in the single digits and teens (subzero mountains). Wind chill factors will remain at or below zero during the overnight/early morning hours with wind chills in the single digits/teens during the daylight hours. The little bit of sunshine each day should help with marginal melting although refreeze is expected every night. Confidence remains high for the prolonged Arctic outbreak to continue through the weekend with some inclination of getting back toward freezing by the middle of next week. Subtleties associated with Cold Weather headlines will exist each day into the weekend, and there's no longer an obvious "coldest" night...just some slight variations between them. The bottom line is it will be cold and to continue to prepare to protect yourself, others, pets, and livestock. River ice is likely to continue increasing in coverage across the area, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks. This includes portions of the bay along with main stem river/creeks across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Still monitoring the potential for a weekend coastal Winter Storm. A broad zonal trough stretching from the Upper Plains to the Northeast will dig across the TN Valley toward the Deep South this weekend. Models are in great agreement regarding the anomalous strength of this trough, with mid-level heigheights approaching record low values over some southern states. The upper trough assumes a neutral tilt as it tracks across the Carolinas/GA, then slides offshore at the start of next week. A surface low is likely to develop along the Carolina coastline, then quickly deepen as it races northeast near / parallel to the Eastern Seaboard. Most of the ensemble members keep the low tracks just enough east / south of our area that any precipitation that falls is below advisory criteria. However, the complete ensemble suite still has decently high probabilities for 2" / 4" / 6" of snow even up to the I-95 corridor. It should be noted that there is likely to be a very sharp cutoff in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and snow amounts on the northern side of the system, with a short distance between a coating of snow to several inches. At this time, confidence in significant impacts (per the latest WSSI) are in southern VA to the Carolinas. While the ceiling remains high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it remains south of our area. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. Significant model changes are possible in the next 24-36 hours as upper air data samples the various upper level synoptic features that will eventually result in this weekend's winter storm. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level west to northwest winds are expected to continue through this afternoon into early evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return late tonight into Thursday as a weak front passes through. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected during the late morning into the early afternoon hours. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds return Friday. Winds will shift to the north late Friday into Saturday as coastal low pressure passes offshore. A coastal low is likely to develop off the Carolina coastline early this weekend, then rapidly track northeast near the Eastern Seaboard through early Monday. As the low approaches, expect winds to increase over the waters. The strongest winds will arrive Saturday night into Monday morning as the low pressure makes its closest approach to the local waters. Gale conditions are becoming likely, with gusts of at least 35-40 kt over most of the waters. Some model guidance indicates gusts to near storm force (50 kt) are possible in the open waters of the central to southern Chesapeake Bay. This will all depend on how close the low tracks. Regardless, dangerous and life threatening marine conditions are likely over the waters this weekend. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST this afternoon for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 6pm EST Thursday for MDZ008. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508. Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST Thursday for MDZ501-509- 510. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502- 504>508-526-527. Extreme Cold Warning until 11am EST Thursday for VAZ503. WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506. Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST Thursday for WVZ503. Extreme Cold Warning until 11am EST Thursday for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST this afternoon for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 6pm EST Thursday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 5pm EST Thursday for ANZ535- 536. |
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