Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sun Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310pm EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Frost Advisory has been issued for portions of northern Maryland late tonight into Saturday morning. The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled, except for the middle Chesapeake and lower tidal Potomac, where it was extended until 2 AM. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight, Saturday night, and Sunday night. - 2) Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight, Saturday night, and Sunday night. With a large area of Canadian high pressure building overhead through the weekend, conditions will likely become favorable for radiational cooling (light to calm winds, mainly clear skies and a cool background airmass). At the moment it is unclear which night will be the coldest, although Saturday night will have a slight advantage given the position of the high. The growing season for 2026 has ended along and west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, but continues east of there. Any headlines for frost/freeze conditions will only be issued where the growing season remains active. For tonight, temperatures look to fall into the mid to upper 30s for many areas (slightly colder west of the Blue Ridge and slightly warmer in the urban areas and bayshore). The typically colder spots of northern MD and the central VA piedmont could at least briefly come close to freezing. For the afternoon package, a Frost Advisory was only issued from Frederick to Cecil Counties. These areas will be closer to the surface high and have lower surface dew points. Farther to the south, there will be a background easterly flow and perhaps some residual clouds, so the evening shift will watch trends to determine if the advisory needs to be expanded. For Saturday night, more widespread cold (possible frost/freeze) conditions are possible as high pressure settles more directly overhead. This would bring the frost/freeze threat for most areas outside the major urban centers and immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay. If the colder temperature guidance verifies, then the growing season may end for more areas west I-95 come early Sunday morning. The high will remain overhead through Monday morning, and the low level airmass doesn't change appreciably, so frost/freeze conditions will be possible again Sunday night. Did not make appreciable changes to the previous min temperature forecasts, which are near or below the coldest guidance which performs best in radiational cooling (MOS, NBM 10 percentile and Canadian Regional). KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures. Canadian high pressure will continue to prevail overhead over the next several days as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. As this ridging tracks east, a dry backdoor cold front will move through Tuesday and into Wednesday, with winds shifting northeasterly in the wake of the front. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remaining dry through this period, no precipitation is anticipated as this front moves through. As this surface high pressure continues on, temperatures remain seasonable, with highs in the 60s to low-70s. Overnight lows could gradually increase somewhat throughout the week as this high pressure persists, with skies remaining mostly clear throughout the week. A few models hint at this high pressure breaking down towards the end of next week as a weak trough begins to form over the Ohio River Valley next Thursday. Regardless, expect continued dry & seasonable conditions to continue at least through the next several days as the current pattern remains largely unchanged. Marine N to NE winds this afternoon will become more E to SE tonight into Saturday. Winds have decreased below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this afternoon, but are forecast to increase again by late afternoon or early evening on the wider waters of the bay surrounding southern Maryland. Thus, northern portions of the advisory have been cancelled, but the lower Potomac to Tangier Sound have been extended through 2 AM. While winds may increase elsewhere, advisory level gusts look to be brief in duration if they occur. High pressure will build overhead this weekend. Winds will vary a bit from northeast to southeast, but at light speeds less than 10 knots. Winds stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Monday. A dry backdoor cold front passing through could briefly bring wind gusts near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Tuesday before diminishing again overnight. Westerly winds shift northerly Tuesday, then easterly Wednesday in the wake of the front. Tides / Coastal Flooding Generally light but steady northeast to east winds are expected to keep water levels elevated through the upcoming weekend. When paired with high astronomical tides due to the upcoming full moon on October 26, additional rounds of minor tidal flooding are possible. There has been a slight trend downward, so there is some decrease in confidence for which locations reach minor flooding in forthcoming high tides. Guidance does show a more notable decline in water levels by Monday when flow finally turns westerly. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Frost Advisory from 1am to 9am EDT Saturday for MDZ004>006- 008-507-508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Frost Advisory from 1am to 9am EDT Saturday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543. |
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