Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of The Overnight...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Today...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401am EDT Fri July 3 2020
A weak low pressure area off of Cape Cod will move southward along the mid Atlantic coast today and tonight. A weak backdoor cold front will sink southwestward from New England on Independence Day, nearing the region Saturday night into Sunday, before dissipating early next week. High pressure returns thereafter with hot and humid conditions persisting.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Mid-upper level ridge is centered over Ohio/LK Erie/SW Ontario per GOES-16 water vapor channels. Meanwhile, upper level trough is now well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast and pulling away. Global models indicate height rises over the local area today leading to a significant warming trend. Light NW flow and strengthening subsidence inversion/mid-level drying based off simulated satellite imagery from output from various global models strongly suggest a drying air mass. It will still be very hot nonetheless with the possibility of reaching the century mark somewhere in our CWA, but widespread mid-upper 90s more likely. I really don't think there will be any convection anywhere today or tonight including northeast MD where some hi- res models indicate something may Probability of Precipitation late.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Models indicate weak height falls will take place on Independence Day with associated low-mid level cooling. This should weaken the subsidence inversion enough to allow for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop. Low- level forcing will be lacking with only orographic lift, bay/river breezes, and weak height falls the only source for lift. Am confident a few storms should Probability of Precipitation given factors mentioned above and moisture advection shown in models.
Better chance of convection appears in store for Sunday as additional low-mid level cooling takes place and presence of backdoor front helps spark convection. Models have a stronger signal for convection Sunday than Sat with areas along and west of the Blue Ridge the most favored.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Large scale ridging will remain in control over much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS throughout the upcoming week. Within this stagnant flow pattern, heat and humidity will remain in place across the region. Highs should reach into the 90s each day, with dewpoints holding in the 60s to near 70. This will result in heat index values in the 90s to near 100 each afternoon. Within the hot and humid airmass, a stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm can't be ruled out each day, but overall coverage of these storms is expected to stay low. The best chances for storms should reside over the higher terrain/near the bay, where terrain circulations and the bay breeze could help to initiate storms.
Many of the 00z deterministic models form a disturbance along the Gulf Coast early next week, then track it over the Deep South and Appalachians toward, or just south of our area by mid-late next week. We'll have to keep an eye on this feature over the weekend/early next week. Currently forecast uncertainty remains high regarding the handling of this feature, but if it were to track overhead, it could result in increased chances for rain/storms during the mid-late week period.
Winds 10 kt or less through 12Z Monday. Locally higher winds and waves can be found near thunderstorms. Best chance appears to be on Independence Day and over KCHO Sunday.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southerly winds are expected over the waters on both Monday and Tuesday. A stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm can't be ruled out either day, but most of the waters should remain precipitation free.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.