Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 5 Kt...Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day, Then Showers Likely Through The Night.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
206pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
An area of low pressure will pass well south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Low pressure will approach from the Midwest early next week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Tranquil conditions are expected through tonight as high pressure noses toward the region from the mid section of the country. NBM/Superblend have been performing very well for low temperatures of late, so saw no reason to stray from this. Did tweak the ridgetops down slightly and raise the inner city areas by a couple degrees per climo, but overall the blend seems fine.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
The last several model cycles of the EC Ensemble have continued to nudge northward with the northern end of a precipitation shield associated with southern stream low pressure moving offshore of the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night. The vast majority of the latest 12Z guidance has also followed this trend. Therefore, have painted likely snow (of light intensity) with a dusting of accumulation across our southern-most zones from near Waynesboro Virginia to far southern Maryland.
The NAM12 is the strongest with an upper jet just to our north, though all model guidance agrees this jet will reach speeds of at least 150 knots at 250 hPa (~35,000 feet above ground). Frontal forcing shows the potential for banding with this system aided in part by this upper jet, though given the surface low track moving southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, more appreciable banding should remain just south of our CWA.
A northern stream trough will also be dropping southward into the region during the late afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. The strong upper jet and increasing mid level spin may result in enough lift to overcome low level dry air and squeeze out moisture moving down off the Great Lakes to result in scattered flurries or a few snow showers. Accumulations overall should be little or none, but a few spots could pick up a quick dusting if a more substantial snow shower moves overhead.
High pressure will build in later Thursday night into Friday with blustery northwest winds and below normal temperatures.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
High pressure will be in control Saturday through Sunday. Dry conditions with mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine are expected both days.
High pressure moves offshore Sunday night to allow for a southerly return flow ahead of a low pressure system over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Monday could start out dry with mild temperatures as the southerly flow increases. However, by midday into the afternoon, clouds will increase and rain becomes likely. Rain should stay on the light side of things.
Rain chances will linger Monday night into Tuesday as an associated cold front extending from the low pressure system moves across the region. Temperatures should be average at best with the additional cloud cover and rain showers.
Models are indicating that the cold front could slow its forward progress or perhaps stall to the east of our region. This could set the stage for more rain showers and, if cold air shoves into our region quickly, a chance for snow showers.
Northwest flow will continue to diminish through tonight, though there may be a period late this evening of enhanced northerly flow behind a weak secondary front.
A little light snow or a flurry or snow shower can't be ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening associated with a surface low passing offshore of the Carolinas and an upper disturbance approaching from Pennsylvania. The best chance for reduced visibility in snow will be south of Drum Point Maryland.
Winds will increase and become more northerly between the departing low and high pressure building in from the Midwest. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are likely late Thursday night into Friday as a result, before winds become lighter Friday night as high pressure nears and the gradient relaxes.
No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Winds southwest 10 knots Saturday, becoming 5 to 10 knots Saturday night and Sunday. Winds south around 10 knots Sunday night.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.