Marine Weather Net

Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast


REST OF THE OVERNIGHT

NW
WINDS
20
KNOTS

TODAY

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ539 Forecast Issued: 435 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
Rest Of The Overnight...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Night.
Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Synopsis
Gusty winds and low relative humidity values look to continue through Thursday as a result of strong low pressure over eastern Canada and broad high pressure building south from the northern Plains region. A cold front will push through the area late tonight into Wednesday bringing another round of accumulating upslope mountain snow showers to the Alleghenies. More widespread precipitation chances hold off until Friday and the start of the weekend as an area of low pressure pushes north from the Gulf Coast region.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Outside of some lingering mountain upslope snow showers over the Alleghenies this morning expect another dry and breezy day ahead. Deep low pressure will remained locked up over eastern Canada with broad high pressure along the Gulf Coast and an even stronger high pressure system building south from central Canada. This will lead to a continuation of gusty west to west-southwest flow across the region and low relative humidity values leading to increased fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather discussion below). Highs today will push into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Expect some mid- level cloudiness especially later this afternoon and evening as longwave troughing and an approaching cold front over the Ohio River Valley advance toward the region.

Skies will clear back out overnight east of the Alleghenies with westerly downslope flow. Areas along and west of the Alleghenies will likely see continued cloudiness and another shot of accumulating upslope mountain snow showers. An additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible at elevations above 2500 feet. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s with values closer to freezing over the mountains. Winds will also begin to increase with longwave trough positioned nearby and the next incumbent shortwave trough/front set to approach from the west Wednesday. With that said, expect sustained west-west southwest winds gusting between 20- 25 mph east of the Blue Ridge and 25-35 mph gusts further west this afternoon. Gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible along the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies especially later this evening and into Wednesday morning. This is especially tries across western MIneral, western Allegany, western Grant, Pendleton, and Highland counties where a fairly persistent signal for advisory criteria winds continues to show up. Higher confidence for wind advisory criteria appears to be toward Wednesday morning and afternoon. With that said, have decided to hold off on wind headlines at this time.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
A reinforcing cold front and shortwave trough cross the area Wednesday. The front will bring limited moisture in the form of mountain upslope snow showers over the Allegheny Front and passing clouds further east. The bigger story will be the winds with 850 mb winds running 40-50 kts ahead of the boundary Wednesday morning and it's wake Wednesday afternoon. Sustained west to northwest gusts as a result, will run between 20-30 mph east of the Blue Ridge with 30- 40 mph gusts further west. 40-50 mph gusts are likely especially along the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies. Will need to monitor the potential for wind headlines mainly over the mountains given the consistent signal amongst the deterministic/ensemble guidance. These strong winds could result in isolated downed trees and power lines.

With downsloping flow ahead and in the immediate wake of the boundary expect slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday. Highs will climb into the upper 50s and low 60s. The mild air combined with gusty winds and lowering relative humidity/fuel moistures will lead to additional fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening for much of the forecast area outside of western MD and north-central MD.

High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes region to southern New England Thursday and Thursday night. Highs will be cooler than average with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s with some lower 50s in eastern Virginia. Low relative humidity values will remain although winds will gradually decrease throughout the day as the gradient relaxes. Lows Thursday night will fall into the mid to upper 20s (low 20s mountains).

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
Cutoff low pressure lifting from the Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic later this week will spread rain across the area Fri night into Saturday. Low pressure begins to pull out Sat night with rain ending. Surface ridging sets up over the first half of the week keeping fair weather. Another system may impact the area next Tuesday bringing the next chance of showers.

Marine

A prolonged period of gusty west to northwest SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds will continue across all waters through midweek. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all waters through tonight and will likely need to be extended through Wednesday.

SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds look to continue Thursday as brief high pressure builds north of the region. Northwest winds will gusts 15 to 25 kts before falling back below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Thursday night into Friday. Rain chances return to the waters Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Gulf Coast states. Additional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds out of the south/southeast can be expected from this passing coastal low pressure system Saturday into Sunday. Potential gales are also possible over the open waters during this time.

Winds will be strong Sat night on the north side of the low and will likely generate gale force winds.

Fire Weather
Elevated to high fire danger is expected to continue across the region through Thursday as dry and gusty conditions persist. An Elevated Fire Danger Statement has been issued for most of Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Virginia through this evening to encompass the increased fire weather threat. Relative humidity values are expected to drop back to around 15 to 25 percent this afternoon into early evening. West winds will gusts 15 to 20 mph in the valleys, and 20 to 25 mph on the eastern slopes of the mountains. Gusts could occasionally be close to 30 mph. This will result in the continued drying of fine fuels.

The worst fire weather conditions are likely on Wednesday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of our Virginia, and West Virginia counties, plus the DC Metro. The Watch may need to be expanded into most of Maryland pending coordination with state fire partners. The strongest winds will be west of the Blue Ridge with westerly gusts of 30-40mph. Slightly lower gusts are expected east of the Blue Ridge at 25-30 mph. The wind combined with low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent and 10/100 hr fuel moistures of 9-15 percent will yield for favorable conditions for the rapid spread of wildfires. Additionally, Special Weather Statements will be needed on Thursday, to account for continued elevated fire weather conditions. Wind gusts Thursday will decrease throughout the day running 15 to 25 mph.

The next chance for widespread wetting rain may come Friday.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for DCZ001. MD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for MDZ013-016-503-504. VA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508- 526-527. WV...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ534-537-543.