Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Patchy Smoke. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945am EDT Sunday July 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes to the forecast. Tuesday could present a localized flash flood threat in addition to the severe thunderstorm threat. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorm chances may linger across southern portions of the area as a front stalls to the south today and Monday. - 2) A strong cold front brings the potential for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday depending on the front's progress. KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorm chances may linger across southern portions of the area as a front stalls to the south today and Monday. Cdfnt has made it across southern portions of the forecast area and lies down along I-64 in central VA as seen on surface observations and moisture gradient on split window difference product. Across northern VA, surface dewpoints have dropped 7F degs since 24 hrs ago making air a lot more comfortable. Continued dry air advection today will limit shower/thunderstorm potential to areas south of Charlottesville and Point Lookout. Some light smoke is also seen across northern portions of MD in GeoColor imagery; it will continue push southeast in NW flow, but shouldn't be as thick as it was the past couple of days. It does appear that the wind shift will make it through a large part of the area by this afternoon, but there will be some lingering convergence and moisture near and south of I-64 in central Virginia as a wave of low pressure passes to the south. Most guidance shows scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in this corridor through the afternoon before drifting south. Since greater instability will be south of the forecast area and shear is modest, the severe weather threat is limited. The front will stall out near North Carolina tonight and Monday as high pressure crosses the northern Mid Atlantic. This high will depart to the east by Monday evening, with return flow at 850mb beginning a bit earlier. This will allow moisture, and eventually the front, to return northward. Any rain risk will likely remain limited to the southern tier of the CWA (County Warning Area) Monday afternoon. Stronger moisture return Monday night could result in some showers and thunderstorms spreading northward with time. Near to below normal temperatures can be expected in the wake of the front, with the largest negative anomaly tonight into Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings the potential for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday depending on the front's progress. A strong upper trough and cold front will cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary cold front may follow the first front sometime midday Wednesday into the afternoon. There's still some uncertainty with how Tuesday unfolds as there could be ongoing showers and thunderstorms in the warm advection regime that limits heating. In addition, the trough and front will likely remain northwest of the area through peak heating. However, height falls, prefrontal troughing, and the terrain will provide a lifting mechanism. Even though instability may not become too large, there will be increasing wind fields ahead of the trough. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with storms, although other hazards cannot be ruled out pending the placement of the trough and ingredients at play. A flash flood threat may also develop as precipitable water increases above 2 inches and a low level jet develops that may be nearly parallel to storm motions and the approaching front. Both threats may linger after sunset as the best forcing (and possibly existing organized convection) arrives from the northwest. More uncertainty exists for Wednesday due to the timing and placement of the secondary front and trough axis. Strong wind fields will remain in place, so a severe weather threat could linger east of this front. At this time, the greatest potential, should it occur, would be east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Longwave troughing remains over the eastern US for the end of the week. The front will remain south of the area (though how far south is in question) as high pressure builds to the north. The main story will be below normal temperatures and lower humidity. While dry weather is most likely, uncertainty in more subtle synoptic forcing features increases toward the end of the week. Marine As a cold front pushes through, there may be a few northwesterly gusts of 15-20 kt through the day, but expected coverage and duration doesn't warrant an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. Expect sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level conditions Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds to the north. Southerly channeling may increase winds by Monday night, with an advisory possible for the bay. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions due strong southerly flow are expected Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm system and two possible fronts push across the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible both days as well. Behind the cold front, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) in NW flow are likely Wednesday night into possibly Thursday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Increasing southerly flow from Monday evening into Tuesday could lead to water levels approaching minor flood stage, especially at Annapolis. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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