Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014am EDT Tuesday September 23 2025 Synopsis High pressure will shift further offshore today allowing an area of low pressure and cold front to approach the region. The front will be slow to cross the area Wednesday through Friday. This will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm chances each day as a series of low pressure systems traverse the stalled boundary. High pressure gradually returns from the west this weekend into early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight Visible satellite shows high level clouds moving northeast across the area with cumulus clouds developing along the metros and west of the Alleghenies. No changes were made to the forecast with the 12Z HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and NAMnest continuing the trend of showing convection initiating between 1-2PM west of the Blue Ridge and reaching the metros between 4-7PM. Rain showers continue to move along the Alleghenies this morning with convection initiation this afternoon dependent on how far cloud cover expands east. Previous forecast discussion included below. Patchy river/high mountain valley fog look to continue through daybreak this morning, especially in locations that did see rain yesterday. Some onshore advection fog has been noted over the western shore of the bay as well as southern MD and the northern neck of VA given increasing moisture in light southerly return flow. High pressure will push further offshore as an area of low pressure over the central US and it's associated cold front slide closer to the region. A series of perturbations look to traverse this boundary as it gradually sags south and east from the Great Lakes and Missouri/Ohio River Valleys. For today, the boundary looks to remain west of the region. A lee trough looks to form along the Alleghenies/Appalachians this afternoon acting as a catalyst for convective development. 500 mb flow will continue to remain out of the west with south to southwest flow at the surface. This will give a bit more movement and organization of storms east of the mountains. 00z/06z modeled shear values from hi-res CAMS/soundings look to be ballparked between 20- 30 kts. Instability (CAPE) values look to run between 1500-2000 j/kg east of the Alleghenies given high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoint values climbing into the upper 60s. The added moisture will push PWATs (Precipitable Waters) into 1.5 to 2 inch range yielding efficient rain producing storms. Current 00z CAMS continue to focus on a narrow window from 2 to 8pm for the highest window of convective development. Coverage will be scattered with a mix of linear and multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Storms look to initiate over the Alleghenies around midday before working east toward the I-81 and US-15 around 3-5pm and off toward the I-95 metros between 5-7pm. The Storm Prediction Center continues a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather for areas east of I-81 this afternoon with wind remaining the primary concern. The risk for severe weather should quickly diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows fall back into the upper 50s to mid 60s with areas of patchy fog late especially for those who did see rainfall. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night Longwave troughing and the resultant slow moving cold frontal boundary will inch closer to the region Wednesday. Meanwhile, several perturbations of low pressure will work along the boundary extending from the Ohio River Valley back into the Mid- South Wednesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a lee trough will form once again in the vicinity of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge. This will act as the spark for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Temperatures will be slightly lower Wednesday given added cloud cover as the trough/front approach from the west. Expect highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with dewpoint values around 70 degrees. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will continue to remain abnormally high for this time of year with the 75th-90th percentiles hovering between 1.5-2.1 inches. With the added cloud cover the severe threat appears lower, but not zero. Storms could pack a punch with heavy rain as the primary threat and gusty winds as a secondary concern. Either way looking at another day of beneficial rains for portions of the area given the recent drought concerns. Any convection should slowly wane during the late evening and overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating. Fog cannot be ruled out, but confidence is lower given increasing cloud cover. Lows Wednesday night will warm into the mid to upper 60s along and east of I-95 with low to mid 60s west (upper 50s mountains). By Thursday, surface low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes dropping it's associated cold front into the region. This will lead to a continuation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area yielding beneficial rainfall. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will remain high running between 1.6-2.2 inches making for efficient rain producing storms. CAPE (less than 1500 j/kg) and shear (less than 35 kts) will also remain subtle leading to some organized clusters of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The severe weather threat looks to remain low, but not zero. Flooding also is not a concern although one or two issues (i.e poor drainage) could sprout up in areas that see repetitive rounds of heavy rain over the last few days. Once again this threat is low given the recent drought concerns. High temperatures Thursday will push into the upper 70s and low 80s east of the mountains with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s east of US-15 (upper 50s and low 60s west). Long Term - Friday Through Monday A weak cold front is forecast to push through the northwestern half of the area Thursday night, but may stall to the southeast with precipitation chances and increased cloud cover lingering across eastern areas Friday into the weekend. Trough axis east of the MS River Valley Thursday is forecast to split and form a cutoff low across the Southeast with a narrow ridge axis forming over the area early next week. A tropical system may approach the Southeast coast early next week with any possible impacts holding off until later next week or at the start of October. Expect highs in the mid 70 to low 80s outside the mountains. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 60s for most with 50s west of the Blue Ridge. Marine Winds will drop back below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this morning with an additional period of southerly channeling possible later this evening and into the overnight hours. Outside of southerly channeling, convective chances due make a return to the waters today and Wednesday. This is in association with a slow moving front and several pieces of low pressure that look to cross the waters through late week. Expect the risk for gusty showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday. Special Marine Warnings may accompany any of these stronger thunderstorms. Winds will remain out of the south Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed late Thursday into Friday as the front crosses. This will lead to a wind shift from the southwest to the northwest Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to continue over the waters on both days with coverage lowering into the upcoming weekend ahead. Tides / Coastal Flooding Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through Thursday, so additional near minor flooding is possible at sensitive locations. This is most likely with the higher daily tide cycle in the afternoon and evening, with the strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible on Thursday into Friday. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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