Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain Likely.
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain.
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Showers Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
|Wed Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. Showers Likely.
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt... Diminishing To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely After Midnight.
|Sat...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242pm EST Tuesday Feb 27 2024
Low pressure over the Midwest and its associated warm front will lift through the area into this evening bringing scattered showers and unseasonably mild temperatures. More widespread showers and gusty winds will accompany a cold front Wednesday with cooler temperatures Thursday as dry high pressure returns. Additional precipitation chances are expected Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure passes south and east of the region.
Near Term - Through Tonight
An upper-level disturbance is bringing showers across the area, but the further east they move, the more low-level dry air they encounter. Best coverage and better forcing will be along/north of the US-50/I-66 corridor. These showers should exit northeast through this evening. Given little to no instability, all lightning/thunder has disappeared with these storms. Areas that see some sun this afternoon will be warmer, with those seeing rain/clouds will be warmer. Breezy areawide through this evening with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range.
While there will likely be a lull in precipitation tonight, a warm front lifting through the area could trigger additional showers at some point during the night. Guidance has this front oscillating near the PA turnpike through the evening before moving south during the overnight. This front will be the focus of heavy rain. Have issued a Flood Watch for western MD into western Grant/western Mineral counties in West Virginia. Signal for 1.5-2" in this area through tomorrow. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms with these showers tonight. It will be very mild tonight for late Feb with overnight lows in the mid 50s, some 25F degs above normal, under gusty southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Night
More widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Guidance has sped-up slightly bringing the cold front to western areas Wednesday afternoon before quickly racing east Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s to low 70s. The heaviest precipitation looks arrive late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening before things quickly shutdown from west to east Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Thunderstorm probabilities are low, but are not zero, for this front, given the increasing dewpoints and strong forcing. Forecast instability values are generally 100-400 J/kg with 0-6 km shear values over 80 kts. Some hodographs and soundings are concerning from a QLCS-tor standpoint, but very low confidence given limited forecast instability.
Southerly winds will quickly switch to the northwest in the wake of the front Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This will lead to residual precipitation switching from rain showers to snow showers over the mountains. Given dry air quickly advecting in, any snow accumulation will be come to an end by midnight or so. SNSQ parameter does light up so cannot rule out localized accums near 1" based on some of the hi-res guidance.
Winds will continue to increase Wednesday night into Thursday due in part to a strong 850 mb low-level jet in excess of 50-60 kts+ and strong pressure rises as high pressure builds in. Gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected areawide with gusts of 50 to 60 mph over the ridges. Have issued wind headlines and they will likely need expanded over the next couple shifts. Have maintained High Wind Watches in western zones where there is likely a downslope component to the wind as well.
Dry Thursday under high pressure with highs closer to climo norms.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
March will start out dry with high pressure shifting off the east coast Friday morning. Cloud cover and southerly winds will increase throughout the day in return flow of high pressure. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s for most with those at higher elevations staying in the upper 40s. Precipitation chances will gradually increase southwest to northeast Friday evening and into the overnight as an area of low pressure tracks just south of the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for most.
For the weekend, precipitation is likely Saturday morning before decreasing to a chance of precipitation in the afternoon as shortwave energy pivots to our north. The highest chances for precipitation are along and east of the Blue Ridge Saturday morning as an area of surface low pressure tracks off the east coast. Temperatures will moderate throughout the weekend and into Monday as weak upper level ridging builds overhead. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday rise to the upper 50s to mid 60s each day. Overnight low temperatures dip into the mid 40s to low 50s each night.
Precipitation chances linger Sunday and into the workweek as a front stalls to our south and a low pressure system approach from the west. High temperatures Monday will continue to be in the 60s areawide with overnight low temperatures dipping into the 40s.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect for all waters of the bay and lower Tidal Potomac as south to southeast (15-25 kts) flow increases. Winds will continue to increase tonight with gusts between 25 to 30 kts expected through Wednesday morning. Gale Watches have been upgraded to warnings for Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning as winds strengthen even further due to the tightened pressure gradient across the region. South/southeast winds of 15 to 25 kts sustained can be expected with gusts up to 40 kts at times. Winds will switch to the northwest late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning with quick pressure rises as dry high pressure builds in. This is the most likely period of the highest gusts with a slow tapering of the winds back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Winds fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Thursday night as a strong ridge of high pressure settles over the waters.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds are likely Friday with southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots. Winds diminish on Saturday before shifting to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Increased south/southwesterly flow will raise anomalies today into Wednesday especially over the northern bay/tidal Potomac. Most guidance show subtle increases in regards to waters levels with minor flooding thresholds potentially being met at Havre de Grace and DC SW Waterfront during the late Tuesday night night and early Wednesday morning high tide cycle.
Strong northwesterly flow develops late Wednesday evening into Thursday allowing a sharp decrease in water levels. Water levels start to increase again Friday with southerly return flow and over the weekend due to onshore east/northeast flow.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Wednesday afternoon for MDZ001. VA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for VAZ503-504-507. WV...Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Wednesday afternoon for WVZ501-503. High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for WVZ501>503-505-506.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from noon Wednesday to 4am EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.