Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers With A Chance Of Tstms Late This Evening, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in coverage near and west of the Appalachians as well as over the Virginia Piedmont. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Widespread convection expected through tonight, while turning cooler and drier into early next week. - 2) Seasonably warm & dry conditions anticipated early next week ahead of a cold front. KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread convection expected through tonight, while turning cooler and drier into early next week. The current setup features a surface boundary located near the Virginia-North Carolina border this evening. This boundary will lift northward as a warm front overnight. At the same time, a shortwave trough is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. As this trough axis pushes off toward the east, models continue to show a low- level response of enhanced moisture/theta-e advection. With surface to 850-mb winds shifting to mainly south to southeasterly, precipitable water values will further rise in time. Increasing isentropic lift atop the poleward advancing warm front should set the stage for convection through tonight. Current radar imagery shows two areas of ongoing showers and storms. The first is located near and west of the Allegheny Front. This area of showers and storms is expected to continue to gradually progress toward the north and east through the night, following a zone of large scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. A second area of showers and a few thunderstorms is ongoing across much of the Virginia Piedmont. This activity is associated with warm/moist advection to the north of the front, and is expected to gradually, Havre de Grace, and Annapolis lift northward through the night. Embedded areas of higher rainfall rates have occurred with some of the showers and storms in what is a high PWAT (Precipitable Water) environment. A Flood Watch remains in effect for extreme Western Allegany and Garrett Counties through 2 AM. Current radar trends suggest that the flood threat there may have peaked, but a few of the recent runs of the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) try to build heavier rain back in from the west next over the next few hours. For that reason, we'll keep the Watch going. Further east, an isolated instance or two of flooding can't be ruled out overnight, but confidence is too low for a Watch. The back edge of the precipitation should clear the area by mid-morning tomorrow. For Sunday into Monday, multiple temperature swings are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, some weak downslope component to the wind fields should steer highs well into the 80s on Sunday. As this front crosses during the diurnal minimum in heating (i.e., overnight Sunday/early Monday), storm chances will be rather limited. Will maintain showers and a few rumbles of thunder along the Alleghenies, with lower (but not quite zero) probabilities further east across the piedmont. Monday's forecast features prevailing northwesterlies with afternoon gusts up to 15 to 25 mph. High temperatures should range from the mid 70s to low 80s, while being locally cooler in the mountains. This also comes with falling humidity and cool temperatures on Monday night. Robust surface high pressure crossing the northeastern U.S. will support widespread 50s overnight. Even some upper 40s are likely in spots that can fully decouple and remain cloud-free. KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably warm and dry ahead of a mid-week cold front. High pressure will continue to build on Tuesday as mid-level dry air moves in from the Great Lakes. Expect seasonable and dry conditions to persist during this time as highs reach into the lower 80s with dewpoints potentially dipping into the upper 40s on Tuesday morning. Strong upper-level ridging builds toward the area Tuesday into Wednesday, then begins to break down by late in the week as a retrograding low tracks south into the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic. Humidity likely begins to increase again on Wednesday as any lingering dry air is driven east out of the region. Meanwhile, a trough will begin to develop over the Northern Plains with a stemming cold front tracking east through the Mid-Atlantic sometime in the mid-to-late week period. Updated model guidance has delayed the arrival of this front potentially to Thursday & into Friday, with showers & potentially a few thunderstorms accompanying the front. However, significant uncertainty remains in the time of arrival here as models continue to grasp this synoptic setup. Regardless, severe probabilities continue to look low as we begin to transition out of the summertime thunderstorm season. Marine Earlier SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been allowed to expire. Showers increase in coverage overnight. The most likely area to see thunderstorms would be south of U.S. 50. It remains to be seen how far north instability can reach. Sub-advisory winds are expected for Sunday before a stronger surge of northwesterlies ensue behind a cold front on Monday. Widespread advisory-caliber wind gusts are likely which will necessitate Small Craft Advisories. Winds likely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Tuesday through Thursday, shifting NE Tuesday to SE Wednesday, then S by Thursday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Strengthening onshore flow will bring tide levels up across the area through tonight. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for Alexandria and Havre de Grace for the current tide cycle. A cold front moves through by early Monday which should bring an end to any coastal flooding potential. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Flood Watch until 2am EDT Sunday for MDZ501-509-510. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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