Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. Rain Likely After Midnight.|
|Fri...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
318pm EDT Sunday Oct 24 2021
A warm front will lift northward acros the region tonight. A strong cold front will then push eastward across the area late Monday into Monday night. Strong low pressure will develop off the coast on Tuesday and linger Tuesday night. High pressure will return briefly Wednesday into early Thursday before another system threatens towards the end of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
Weak high pressure has built across the region finally, allowing most of the region to see sunshine and milder temperatures presently. Tonight, a warm front will lift north of the region. Other than bringing some more clouds back to the region, it won't have much effect, other than southerly winds and a somewhat milder night overall - no significant rainfall is anticipated. Lows mostly in the 50s.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
The bulk of daylight Monday will turn out rather pleasant as we sit ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow will bring warmer air northward, so despite greater cloud cover, highs should creep further into the 70s than today. However, by early-mid afternoon, the front's approach will begin to be felt as a developing line of showers and storms begins to move into eastern West Virginia and western Virginia. These likely overspread the entire region by mid-evening at latest and may linger after midnight, especially near the bay. A lot of uncertainty regarding potential strenght of the storms, however, as while plenty of forcing exists aloft, CAPE is relatively limited, if not possibly altogether absent. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled out given the shear.
As the front pulls off the coast late Monday night, coastal low pressure will develop and linger Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will result in a brisk and cooler day with clouds and a few showers, especially near Baltimore and points northeast. Drier and sunnier conditions will prevail further southwest. Highs will be in the 60s Tuesday with lows in the 40s to nera 50 at night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
Transient ridging builds in Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny and dry conditions through Thursday morning.
By Thursday afternoon, the next storm system arrives increasing the potential for rain showers west of I-81. The rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue.nue to move east through Friday into Friday night. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact track of upper level energy/forcing and the potential formation of surface low pressure. Both GEFS and EPS ensembles show the potential for 1" of rain in 24 hours across the region, with the higher probabilities west of the Blue Ridge across western Maryland.
With the broad upper level trough or even a cut off low overhead Saturday into Sunday, additional periods of rain showers are possible. The higher POPs Saturday and Sunday are along the climatologically favored upslope locations.
Increased cloudcover will limit diurnal cooling throughout the later half of the long term.
Strengthening southerly flow as a warm front lifts northward tonight will bring small craft advisory conditions with gusts of 20-30 knots to most waters except the narrow sheltered ones thru tonight. Winds will continue.nue Monday before diminishing Monday night. However, a line of gusty thunderstorms may threaten the waters late Monday and Monday night, posing the potential for special marine warnings. Low pressure then develops off the coast Tuesday/Tuesday night, with rapid strengthening potentially resulting in gales. Have gale watch for middle bay and Tangier, but may require expansion if confidence grows.
Winds remain out of the northwest Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely Wednesday afternoon. Winds turn out of the southeast Thursday and remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through the afternoon.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Strengthening southerly flow will bring water levels very close to minor thresholds tonight. Will need to watch water levels closely in case advisories are required. Anomalies should level off thereafter as winds diminish and then swing around to the north behind a cold front. A coastal low pressure later in the week could further elevate water levels, however.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ530-531-539-540-542. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ538. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ532>534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ541. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ537.