Chester River to Queenstown MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of The Overnight...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Patchy Fog.|
|Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming Nw 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming Ne 5 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft...Building To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers Likely.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming S 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day, Then Rain Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356am EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
A front will drop southward through our region this morning. A strong cold front moves through our area on Thursday. A Canadian high pressure builds over our area Friday through Saturday before low pressure possibly impacts the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7am THIS MORNING/... A line of storms are moving through our region this morning. The storms should continue to weakened as they progress further through our area as they enter more stable air which should inhibit further severe potential. An isolated severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the next few hours as a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 6am. The main threat will be damaging winds but isolated instances of large hail can't be ruled out. The line of storm should be through our region by the middle parts of this morning.
A cold front to our northwest which is driving the line of storms will move through our region later this morning. As the front moves through our area, additional showers and storms will be possible this morning and into the early afternoon. As temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, conditions may be favorable for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to form along the boundary especially in areas in central Virginia. The threat for showers and thunderstorms should continue to wane into this afternoon as the front moves further south of our region and we become positioned on the cold side of the front. Dry conditions are expected this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase early Thursday morning as stronger cold front approaches from the west.
.SHORT TERM /7am THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong cold front will move through our region early Thursday morning and continue through our area into the afternoon. A strong upper level jet will shift northward and help to enhance lift along the frontal boundary as it moves through our forecast area. HiRes guidance is hinted at the formation of squall line feature that forms during the early morning periods Thursday and progresses eastward through our area by the early Thursday afternoon. This line has the potential to develop thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds but there remains uncertainty whether this line will hold together through our area.
Behind the frontal passage, a strong pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds of 25 to 35 knots with locally higher gusts possible. High pressure will build into our region through Friday but strong winds could linger into Friday. A cooler air mass will move into our region on Friday with temperatures running much cooler in the upper 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 30s Friday night. As temps drop near freezing along with winds becoming light, there is potential that frost/freeze advisory may need to be issued for Friday night but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The aforementioned area of high pressure will push offshore on Sunday, with southerly flow returning, bringing warmer and more moist air into the region. Initial thougheights are that the first half of the day stays dry. However, a potent cutoff upper low, previously sitting over the desert southwest, will be moving out over the southeast. Surface low pressure will form over the Arklatex and move off generally towards our region. Guidance is spread about how exactly this will evolve. Maintaining thougheights from yesterday that this has the potential to be an impactful event for the region in one of two ways. The first option is that the system tracks to our south, but we are solidly within the heavy rain threat, so flooding concerns could arise. The other possibility is for the system to track into the Ohio Valley, and bring a cold front through late Sunday or Monday (timing is still very much in flux), which would result in the potential for some severe weather. This is out near the end of the forecast period, so not locking onto any particular solution at this time, but at this point, these are the two scenarios that the guidance is coming up with.
A line of storms will move through the waters this morning bring strong and gusty winds and isolated hail. Behind these storms, winds will pick up and be 18 to 22knots this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the waters on Thursday. Strong and gusty winds are expected along and behind the front. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected. Small Craft Advisories are likely Thursday and Friday with Gale Warnings possible Thursday afternoon into Friday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.