Marine Weather Net

Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ650 Forecast Issued: 1000 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Rest Of Tonight...S Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Late In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot. Wave Detail: N Ne 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...E Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft. Wave Detail: N Ne 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: N Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri...E Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Fri Night Through Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
805pm EDT Tuesday May 28 2024

.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 130pm EDT Tuesday May 28 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-level ridge which had been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the upcoming week. A warm and moist airmass will be in place over SFL with highs once again increasing well into the 90s area-wide and peak heat indices into the triple digits. Heat indices may increase over 105 degrees over portions of the area, with some potential for some sites over the east coast meeting heat advisory criteria, however, ongoing convective initiation and cloud cover will limit the duration component of our heat criteria. The low- level mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the eastern Interior and east coast metro. Deep-layer flow will remain weak (albeit increasing slightly as a shortwave approaches) so don't expect convection to be particularly organized, although strong winds from individual cell microbursts will remain a threat given steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Cooling temperatures aloft (particularly over Palm Beach county) will result in some hail potential as well, although not particularly confident in the large hail potential.

The overall synoptic setup will be pretty similar on Wednesday with the stalled front remaining north of the area, local winds being largely driven by sea-breeze circulations, and hot temperatures persisting. Convection will once again be sea-breeze driven although spatial coverage may be a little more equitable as westerly synoptic flow weakens allowing for greater inland progression of the sea breeze. Convective coverage and intensity may be marginally lower than today given the lack of shortwave forcing and somewhat warmer mid-level temperatures, however on the whole scattered coverage (i.e. 35-50 PoPs) seem reasonable.

Long Term
(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 305pm EDT Tuesday May 28 2024

Longwave troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through most of the long term period and then several shortwave segments will pass through the Florida Peninsula heading into next week. Easterly flow looks to begin establishing itself over South Florida for Thursday and Friday, though it will be on the weaker side. Nevertheless, scattered convection will initiate in the afternoon both Thursday and Friday with the focus of that expected for the interior and west coast areas under the low level easterly flow. The stationary boundary will remain north of the area through Friday, keeping generally hot conditions across the area. East coast areas will likely be a few degrees cooler given easterly flow and sea breeze effects.

Over the weekend and into next week, high pressure will strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas with easterly flow becoming increasingly breezy. In addition, this will cause the stalled frontal boundary to shift southwards as a weak backdoor cold front on Saturday which should bring some relief from the increased heat. Thunderstorm chances will be reduced behind the boundary as more stable air filters in, although moisture will be high enough for some quick-moving coastal convergence induced showers and pop-up storms along the sea/gulf breezes. With stronger easterly flow, the focus for most convection over the weekend will be for interior and west coast areas.

Marine
Issued at 130pm EDT Tuesday May 28 2024

Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through at least the middle of the week over the Atlantic waters, while the Gulf waters will see more westerly winds, particularly over the near- shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze. Seas will remain 3 feet or less through the period. Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the mid-week period resulting in brief periods of locally hazardous winds and seas.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.