Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Morning And Afternoon. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: N 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: N 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. |
| Mon...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Very Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 632am EST Thu Nov 12 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 200am EST Thu Nov 12 2026 GOES mid-level water vapor imagery shows a clear illustration early this morning of the undulating jet stream pattern we currently have in place across the Continental United States. Profound ridging is found over the western half of the country while the eastern half is mainly dominated by troughing. Over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, an upper-level trough is seen digging southeastward with its associated surface low pressure system and cold front sweeping eastward across the upper Ohio River Valley and towards the vicinity of the central Appalachians. This is a crucial atmospheric feature whose evolution we will continue to closely monitor for the cold air advection it will bring to South Florida in the not-too- distant future. Closer to home, a minute shortwave trough on water vapor imagery is seen exiting the coast of the Southeast U.S., supported by Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis which is showing a broad swath of 50 to locally 60-knot wind speeds at the 500-mb height level around this general region which encompasses most of north and central Florida and the offshore Atlantic waters. As for our local conditions here in South Florida, an abnormally strong subtropical jet stream has bolted downstream from the Eastern Pacific across Mainland Mexico and the Gulf of America and into the Florida peninsula. This can be backtracked by model trends, and its arrival aloft here in South Florida can be confirmed by regional ACARS soundings which are displaying robust upper-level westerlies at around 60-80 knots which, according to our newest rendition of the HREF (the REFS), is roughly around the 80th percentile for this time of year. With both this subtropical jet and aforementioned shortwave disturbance exiting the Southeast U.S. has come the advection of moisture into South Florida, which is being accurately reflected in both water vapor imagery (with a narrow band of moisture enveloping the entire Gulf and the Florida peninsula) and ACARS (to a certain extent showing some low to mid-level saturation, depending on the exact terminal of choice). Forecast soundings via mesoscale models (i.e. HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and RAP) show some more deep-layer saturation occurring through the rest of the overnight hours and into the daytime hours Thursday as the main corridor of highest moisture associated with the subtropical jet shifts slightly southward and focuses directly over South Florida. This, also supported by NBM and ensemble guidance, should evidently result in mostly cloudy skies across our region today. Moving to the surface, a weak cold front can be identified on Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis off the Florida Treasure Coast in association with a thin line of marine showers and a sharp confluence of winds along the boundary. This weak boundary will be slowing pushing southward through South Florida throughout the day Thursday, which (in addition to an already moist atmosphere with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 1.7-1.9" representing the 85- 95th percentiles) could help provide some extra lift to support the formation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. With the approach of this feeble feature, our surface flow will pick up slightly out of the west almost exactly parallel to the orientation of the front. In addition, with our background flow fairly unidirectional and predominately out of the west-southwest with the base of the aforementioned upper-level trough still expected to be churning well to our north over the vicinity of the Central Appalachians, we should be seeing convection be steered to the east- northeast throughout the day across South Florida. There will be questions as to how much surface heating we could receive through the diurnal cycle given the high cloud cover, which will also be subsequently affecting our high temperatures that are forecast to be slightly cooler than they were yesterday (also aided by the slow and subtle passage of this weak front). A clear temperature gradient is displayed on the NBM, with places closer to the Lake that will be positioned behind the front forecast to peak in the upper 70s while the rest of South Florida (preceding and further displaced from the surface front) generally reaches the low to mid 80s. Low to mid- level lapse rates will not be the most ideal in supporting strong to severe thunderstorms nor for rapidly kick-starting multiple potent updrafts, but given the presence of a cold pocket aloft with 500-mb temperatures of around -9C forecast to be between the 25th and 50th percentiles for the date, the abnormally strong flow in the upper levels in tandem with the subtropical jet (80-90 knots of mean shear at the 250-mb level corresponds to the 90-95th percentiles for the date as per the REFS), and elongated hodographs in forecast soundings, cannot completely rule out maybe some gusty winds translating to the surface from an isolated stronger downdraft. Locally heavy rainfall that can potentially lead to isolated instances of minor urban flooding will be something to monitor, though overall confidence is low. LPMM shows the possibility for a few localized areas of 1-2" spread out across the peninsula through Friday morning. In broader view, PoPs will range between 20 and 40% across much of South Florida today with a slimmer chance of thunder (10-20%). Thursday night into Friday is when ensemble guidance has a significant deepening in our upper-level trough over the Appalachians (500-mb geopotential heigheights around the base of the trough dropping to below the 1st percentile for the date as per various ensemble clusters including the NAEFS and REFS) which will be abetted upstream by a substantial strengthening and amplification of the upper-level ridge that was seen positioned over the western U.S. this morning as it shifts northeastward towards Canada. Geopotential heigheights at 500mb across Central Canada and the Hudson Bay will be at or near maximum climatological percentiles as per the same NAEFS and REFS guidance, perfectly complimenting the also near-record heigheights at the base of the downstream trough. At the surface, the same cold front mentioned at the beginning of this discussion that was traversing the Ohio Valley this morning will continue to quickly slide south and eastward through the Southeast U.S. and down the Florida peninsula in tandem with a strong surface low that will bring nor'easter-like impacts to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Unlike the weak cold front that will be crossing South Florida today and quickly washing itself out over the southernmost portions of our peninsula, this succeeding front is expected to be much stronger and will help inject the first chilly air mass of the Fall season into South Florida. We now have a firm timing due to better overall agreement by the models on the arrival and passage of this front, as it is forecast to descend through South Florida during the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Friday. High-res guidance is not overly optimistic on the amount of precipitation that we experience with this FROPA, mainly since it will be occurring at night and there will be little to no instability for the weak showers that form ahead and along of the front to work with. The way it looks now is that these pre-frontal showers that we encounter during the Friday early morning hours will be no more than just a nuisance-type of rain. Probability of Precipitation do not appear to be any higher than 10% during this nocturnal period and shortly past daybreak, decreasing thereafter to near 0% through the rest of the day Friday with the front already having moved through our region and cooler temperatures having filtered in. Though forecast soundings and model projections indicate that our atmospheric profile will remain fairly saturated for the first half of the day with South Florida still located within the rich conveyor belt of moisture that is the subtropical jet (which should again lead to more clouds than sun to start off our day), the lack of sufficient surface destabilization (CAPE of perhaps only up to 300 J/Kg) due to the intrusion of a drier and cooler air mass will likely prevent any additional showers from popping up during the peak daytime heating hours. We will see more breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon as drier mid-level air starts to slowly filter into South Florida on the backside of the potent upper trough, which will also help shunt the subtropical jet, and thus our primary moisture source, to our south. Winds should start to turn northwesterly around daybreak Friday in the wake of the front, gradually becoming breezier as the day progresses and especially into the evening hours with a modest temperature gradient building over our region. The cool air advection behind the front on Friday will lead to our high temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 70s for many north of Alligator Alley and upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of there. Lows both today and tomorrow morning will range between the mid 60s (closer to Lake Okeechobee and over the northern half of South Florida) and low 70s (further south across the peninsula while we await the arrival of that much cooler air by Saturday morning). Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 200am EST Thu Nov 12 2026 THIS WEEKEND... Anomalously stout mid-level troughing across the eastern contiguous United States is forecast to advect northeastward during the early morning hours of Saturday. A combined southern & polar stream jet- streak will also lift northwards across the western Atlantic waters in tandem, providing continued kinematic support (maxima of upper level divergence & low level convergence) for the continued deepening of a surface low pressure system offshore of the northeastern United States. The injection of synoptic forcing will facilitate the continued progression of the still attached, surface frontal boundary further south and away from South Florida, gradually ushering in a continental and rather anhydrous airmass into the region during this time frame. On the westward periphery of the departing mid-level trough, a sprawling dome of surface high pressure is forecast to slide southwards across the central United States, facilitating the development of a pressure gradient across South Florida and our surrounding local waters. The combination of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) could be clearly evident as an airmass that initially originated across northern Canada and the Arctic Circle is forecast to settle in across the southeastern United States and Florida. While the coldest and most anomalous 850mb temperatures are forecast to remain to the north of our region (forecasted 850mb values are below the 5th percentile across the northern extent of the Florida Peninsula and the remainder of the southeastern United States), Clearing skies and breezy peninsular drainage flow on Saturday morning is forecasted to result in wake-up temperatures on Saturday in the low 50s near Lake Okeechobee and in the mid to upper 50s elsewhere. How does this compare to normal minimum temperatures for this time of year? Taking into account spatial variability across our local long-term climate sites here in South Florida, the currently forecast minimum temperature values would be roughly 5 to 10 degrees below average. Breezy northerly flow and efficient cold air advection (CAA) may then act to stifle diurnal heating on Saturday afternoon which could keep high temperatures below average. Our normal maximum temperatures for this time of year across South Florida are just above a balmy 80F, varying slightly depending on exact location. The latest high temperature forecast continues to depict values in the upper 60s to low 70s, roughly 10 degrees below average for day-time high temperatures. Copious amounts of dry air in the vertical column will likely preclude any vertical extent of cloud cover with rain chances remaining limited in nature. With such a transient mid to upper level pattern increasingly in play across the southern United States, the axis of surface ridging will slide eastwards across the upper Mississippi River valley on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The siting of surface ridging is instrumental in determining just how long a "cold" snap is able to last across our region given the moderating influences of the surrounding Atlantic waters. This subtle slide of surface high pressure eastward will veer surface winds across the region out of a more northerly component prior to daybreak on Sunday morning as the pressure gradient gradually wanes in intensity. This could result in an interesting distribution of slightly warmer minimum temperature values along the east coast of South Florida by daybreak on Sunday, while areas across inland southwestern Florida could see values in the upper 40s as surface winds slacken and decouple. The veering of surface winds to a breezy northeast direction during the day on Sunday is forecast to jump-start a gradual warming trend as the airmass in place across South Florida gradually moderates. Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s across coastal locales to temperatures in the mid 70s near Lake Okeechobee. NEXT WEEK... Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to depict a rather robust mid-level shortwave sliding southeastward from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Northern Gulf Coast, Monday into Tuesday. A sub-tropical jet-streak to the east of the shortwave axis could set the stage for the development of a surface low pressure system in the Gulf as the same frontal boundary previously discussed, gradually retrogrades northwards as a warm front. While this pattern may resemble a "classic El Nino" depiction at first glance, there are several important details to unpack. As deterministic guidance can vary widely from run to run and depict a singular outcome , ensemble guidance can present a wider and more probabilistic array of potential solutions. The best analogy to help make this important distinction (deterministic vs ensemble) is to picture a race car derby. Consider a singular derby car that is propelled with force down the derby ramp. One singular input produced one singular outcome, which is a really simplistic equivalent to deterministic model guidance. To contrast this, now imagine a line of derby cars, each built with different materials and given varying levels of force down the derby ramp. Each derby car had slightly different input parameters which will lead to different outcomes, a wider array of potential solutions. Bringing the point home, current ECENS and GEFS ensemble members show a very wide spread of potential outcomes with this system. Some ensemble members depict the threat of thunderstorm activity, heavy rainfall, and higher precipitation rainfall totals across South Florida. Alternatively, several ensemble members depict the opposite with the greatest impacts displaced away from the region. Each ensemble member has slightly different inputs on the placement of the frontal boundaries and surface low pressure system, which is resulting in a wide array of outcomes. This wide array of outcomes also helps us infer that there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the evolution of this feature next week and how we here in South Florida could be impacted. Cluster analysis reveals that ensemble guidance (ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE) is in fair agreement with the placement and timing of the shortwave, however the exact timing and strength & placement of the surface low pressure system & attached frontal boundaries is the main mechanism which could either enhance or hinder local impacts across the region. Three potential trajectories (Surface low remains to the south, Surface low passes directly overhead, Surface low passes to the north) for the system exist with consequent forecast implications for South Florida. Lift, instability, and moisture are the three main ingredients for thunderstorm development and will directly be influenced by the exact placement and evolution of the surface low. The fourth ingredient that is needed for more robust thunderstorm development, shear, will be dictated by where the sub- tropical jet-stream's jet-streak is located in relation to surface features. Specifics aside, ensemble guidance is in line with the latest run of the National Blend of Models (NBM) that depicts the potential of a prolonged period of gusty winds across South Florida during the early to mid period of next week. This may act to keep temperatures near normal for this time of year, without accounting for any potential influence of convection across the region. Marine Issued at 200am EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A gentle to moderate west-southwesterly and west-northwesterly wind flow will develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today, respectively. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters throughout the day today. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will be at or below 2 feet today. A moderate, northwesterly wind flow will develop on Friday behind a cold front with seas increasing to 2-4 feet across the local waters. Elevated marine conditions will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Beaches Issued at 200am EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will stay in place across the Palm Beaches today, dropping to a low risk on Friday and Saturday. Overall risk of rip currents will increase on Sunday and could persist into the early portion of next week for all east coast beaches with an increase in onshore winds. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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