Marine Weather Net

Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ650 Forecast Issued: 318 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Sprinkles After Midnight.
Thursday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Light Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Friday...East Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Friday Night...East Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday...East Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Smooth.
Saturday Night...East Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots Along The Coast To East Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...Southwest Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
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AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm
318 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

High pressure will settle in over the Southeastern United States for rest of this week allowing for easterly winds to diminish by late this week. The weather will also remain mostly dry over all of the local waters through end of the week. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect through 7 PM EST due to wind over 20 kts for the Atlantic waters off Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, including Biscayne bay.

Gulf Stream Hazards: 4 to 6 foot seas today.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Nov 03, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 13 nautical miles east southeast of Fowey Rocks. 20 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 7 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
328pm EST Wednesday Nov 25 2020

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THANKSGIVING EVENING... ...POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COLDER CONDITIONS... .Short Term
Today through Thursday Evening... Very short discussion today as the area is under high pressure. There is a weak low level disturbance, which is moving across the western portion of the area this afternoon. This has a small area of showers associated with it and should move out of the area by this evening. With a strong inversion on this mornings sounding, no other weather is forecast to develop at this time through tomorrow evening.

.Long Term

Thanksgiving Weekend... High pressure shifts slowly southward from the Western Atlantic waters into the Bahamas this Thanksgiving weekend. This will keep the weather mostly dry over South Florida, as precipitable waters values remain in the 1.0 to 1.4 inches range. There could be a few isolated light showers along the adjacent Atlantic waters and the east coast of South Florida, but the coverage will be few and far between to mention it at this time in the forecast. Throughout the remainder of the week, temperatures will remain near seasonal, with high temps in the low 80s and overnight temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

First Week of December... Going into the first week of December, there continues to be a little bit of amount of uncertainty with the forecast as long-term model guidance remains split, although not to the extreme as what it formally was. Both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) agree on a pretty strong FROPA early next week, though what they differ on is timing and intensity. However, recent guidance is starting to align on the overall placement of the associated parent low, but of course this can change (details below)... 1. The GFS takes a deep, amplified low across the SE CONUS before sliding northeastward towards the NE CONUS. Timing on FROPA is overnight Monday with dynamics aligning for perhaps strong storms to develop along the front or just ahead of the front, as the model is showing a mid to upper level jet of 100 to 110 knots moving across Central Florida and a low level jet of 30 to 50 knots moving across the Lake Okeechobee region.

2. The ECMWF is now showing a low that looks to be stronger than previous model runs along with it tracking into the SE CONUS and eventually towards the NE CONUS (previous runs had the low skirting along the northern GOMEX). Timing of the FROPA passage has also moved up to sometime Monday instead of Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF also now showing a low to mid level jet of 30 to 50 knots moving across the region with the passage of the cold front. However,r it takes the mid to upper level jet of 110 to 110 knots more north through North Florida. So the threat of strong storms is a little bit lower for South Florida with the passage of the cold front.

Despite the uncertainty involved with early part of next week with an anticipated FROPA, this portion of the forecast period will be important to monitor for potential weather impacts and changes in forecast.

Both models are showing cold temperatures working into South Florida behind the passage of the strong cold front for the middle part of next week. At this time, it looks like lows will get down into the 40s over the northern interior areas to the 50s over the metro areas. Highs will also only get up into the 60s over most areas to around 70 over the southeastern areas of South Florida.

Towards the end of next week, the long range models are very uncertain. The GFS shows high pressure settling in over the Southeastern United States from the north keeping South Florida dry. The ECMWF long range models showing another low developing in the Northern Gulf and moving across Northern Florida. At this time, will keep the weather dry over South Florida for late next week and will continue to wait to see how the long range models play out for late next week.

Marine
A moderate low level pressure gradient has kept the wind over the Atlantic waters to measure over 20kts all day so far. A Small Craft Advisory was issued this morning for the southern Atlantic zones and Biscayne Bay through 00z. The wind is forecast to subside after this and become sub advisory strength.

Marine conditions are forecast to be benign through the weekend. A cold front, forecast to approach the area Monday may bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area. This will also bring an increase in wind speed, as well as a wind shift to the west northwest. The northerly component may help build seas in the Gulf stream. However, the forecast currently keeps wave heigheights below advisory criteria.

.Aviation... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will remain out of the east southeast this afternoon around 15 knots across all terminals before diminishing tonight. These winds will increase again out of the east southeast by the middle of Thursday morning.

.Beach Forecast... A breezy easterly wind will keep rip current potential elevated for another day or so. Then, the wind is forecast to subside below 10 kts, which should allow for the rip current risk to reduce to low as well.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thanksgiving evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for AMZ630-651- 671.

GM...None.

Aviation...55/CWC Beach Forecast...13 Short Term
13 Long Term...34/SPM