Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Light Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Light Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Light Showers Through The Night. Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...East Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Light Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Light Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Light Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night And Saturday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
947 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Prevailing east southeast winds will be in place for most of the upcoming week with the Atlantic ridge axis to the north of the region. The main boating concern will be showers and storms across the local waters each day, especially for Tuesday as a disturbance pushes through the region. A few waterspouts are also possible over the Atlantic waters. Prevailing flow will lead to more storms pushing off the Gulf coast in the afternoons and evenings. Winds and waves could be locally higher in an around any shower or thunderstorm.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Lightning, gusty winds, locally higher seas, and waterspouts are possible with showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Aug 17, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 5 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 9 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades.
- 11 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 8 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
819pm EDT Monday August 19 2019
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and progress westward across South Florida this evening with the greatest coverage expected over the Atlantic waters, interior, and Gulf Coast. Persistent E-SE flow combined with a surface trough moving into the region from the Bahamas overnight tonight into Tuesday will aid in enhancing overall convective activity through the overnight hours. Increased the probability of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight into the morning hours to account for deeper tropical moisture and moderate instability associated with the surface trough moving into the region. Otherwise the forecast is in great shape and no major changes are anticipated.
AVIATION... Intermittent convection, particularly along the east coast through the period, as a disturbance moves into the region tonight into Tuesday. Cannot rule out brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions at terminals directly impacted by convection. An evening round over the Atlantic waters may impact the east coast in the coming hours with an overnight round certainly possible at all sites. A morning round is also possible, with APF possibly joining the fray early with Gulf storms. TSRA risk increases through the period.
DISCUSSION... Main weather story for the next day or so will be a surface trough currently spread across the Bahamas near 77W/78W and its gradually migration towards the Florida peninsula overnight tonight and into Tuesday as the western Atlantic ridge axis lifts northward. What does this mean? Well, a trend of higher coverage in showers and storms will be expected tomorrow and this is due to a few reasons... 1. The Saharan dust will slowly lift northwestward and models have it completely out of South Florida by Tuesday. This will allow a re-moistening of the local airmass with PW's creeping in excess of 2.00 inches. Portions of the west coast Tuesday have values exceeding 2.50 inches, so heavier coverage is expected there, especially during the afternoon through early evening hours.
2. The aforementioned moistening will be brought upon by the second factor, the combination of a westward moving surface trough stated above that will pass to our south tonight with it's northern end moving into South Florida by Tuesday morning. These features have a midlevel reflection that will erode the western end of the ridge, bringing in a little cooler temperatures aloft. GFS guidance suggests that 500 mb temps will cool to -7 to -8 C Tuesday, so stronger updrafts and potentially stronger storms will definitely not be out of the question.
With that said, the highest rain chances of the week will likely be Tuesday as the influence of the above factors are maximized. We will still see a diurnal maximum of activity in the afternoon with daytime heating (although heating will be slightly deterred due to higher cloud coverage) and diffuse east coast seabreeze. While the highest coverage will be across inland SW Florida and the Gulf coast, locally heavy rain may be a concern for all locations. Periodic gusty winds are not out of the question either.
For the latter half of the week, perturbations of the western Atlantic ridge will be the largest influence on the weather across South Florida. The axis of the ridge will generally be to our north, putting us in prevailing deep east/southeast flow, so plenty of moisture will stick around with a more seasonable coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms once the trough passes to the west. PW's look to drop into the 1.65 to 1.90 inch range with the exception of Friday where values drop to around 1.50 inches. As we end the week, the western Atlantic ridge looks to weaken, however, it will still exert enough influence to keep us in prevailing easterly flow. This will continue to push the highest coverage towards the Gulf coast and inland SW Florida each afternoon. Convection will generally be diurnally driven, developing along the seabreezes in the late morning and afternoons.
Quick side note about a brief return of Saharan Dust -- models are hinting that minute amounts of Saharan dust (around 20 to 40 micrograms per cubic meter) return to South Florida Wednesday and Thursday but will quickly dissipate.
For the upcoming weekend, a tropical wave currently located around 38W looks to enter the forecast picture. Models have this feature tracking a little further north and east of the area, so deep moisture looks to be the main impact, and thus, higher rain and storm chances this weekend. Exactly when, what, and where it arrives will determine when enhanced rain chances may return to South Florida. For now though, scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will be the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next week.
Prevailing east/southeast winds will be in place for most of the upcoming week with the Atlantic ridge axis to the north of the region. Speeds will generally be 10 kt or less across the Gulf waters and Lake Okeechobee with 10-15 kt winds across the Atlantic waters. The main boating concern will be showers and storms across the local waters each day. Prevailing flow will lead to more storms pushing off the Gulf coast in the afternoons and evenings. Expect locally higher winds and waves near any convection.
A return in east/southeast wind flow will gradually increase the Rip Current risk for Atlantic beaches throughout the next couple of days.
A lack of widespread coverage the last couple of days has allowed the ground to tolerate heavy rainfall a bit better. Locally heavy rainfall anywhere in South Florida could still cause minor flooding over the coming days but the prevailing flow will tend to concentrate afternoon showers and storms towards Gulf coast and SW Florida.
Fisheating Creek at Palmdale continues to slowly rise and is currently at 6.41 feet as of 3pm EDT. The forecast trend is an expectation for Fisheating Creek to gradually rise over the coming days as additional rainfall falls across the basin. At this time, the forecast remains for the creek to stay below flood stage at Palmdale.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.