Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Thursday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Along The Coast, Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Evening, Seas 2 To 3 Feet. In The Gulf Stream, Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Seas 2 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet After Midnight. Period 3 Seconds Increasing To 9 Seconds After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...North Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 35 Knots. Along The Coast, Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet Building To 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet In The Afternoon. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas To 10 Feet Building To 10 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet In The Afternoon. Period 7 Seconds. North Swell 3 To 4 Feet In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...North Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 35 Knots. Seas 8 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas To 13 Feet Along The Coast And 12 To 14 Feet With Occasional To 18 Feet In The Gulf Stream. North Swell 3 To 7 Feet Increasing To 4 To 9 Feet After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots. Seas 9 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas To 14 Feet Along The Coast And 12 To 14 Feet With Occasional To 18 Feet In The Gulf Stream. North Swell 4 To 9 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...East Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots Along The Coast To East Northeast 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Along The Coast, Seas 8 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas To 13 Feet. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 10 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet Subsiding To 8 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas To 13 Feet After Midnight. North Northeast Swell 3 To 7 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas To 10 Feet. North Northeast Swell 3 To 5 Feet Becoming Northeast 4 Feet In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...East Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. Northeast Swell 3 Feet In The Evening. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Monday...South Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
414 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020
Generally light to moderate winds and seas can be expected today through Thursday. Cannot rule out isolated pockets of showers over the next day or two. As a cold frontal boundary slides through late in the week, shower coverage should increase. In addition, hazardous winds and seas can be expected behind the cold frontal boundary with some wind gusts approaching gale force at times, especially across the Atlantic waters.
Gulf Stream Hazards: High winds and seas developing late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Feb 15, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 7 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 7 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades.
- 7 nautical miles east southeast of Lake Worth.
- 13 nautical miles east southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
658pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
.Aviation... Showers should gradually diminish over western interior areas through the evening, but these will remain away from the terminals. Prevailing VFR along the east coast, with brief MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) possible. More uncertainty for the Gulf coast/APF late tonight when low clouds and/or fog may develop. Hinted at this with BR and lower SCT/FEW groups, but not enough confidence to include any lower ceilings or visibility at this time. SE winds should continue through the morning hours tomorrow, with a gradual shift towards the S-SW by evening.
Increased Probability of Precipitation over the next few hours across western portions of the area where showers continue. Otherwise the ongoing forecast appears in good shape and no other meaningful changes are anticipated.
.Prev /issued 336pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020/
Remainder of Today through Thursday Night... Like the last few days, showers again developed today...though coverage was a little more today than days passed as better moisture quality within the column is now present along with low level convergence courtesy of a sea breeze. Going into tonight, the pressure gradient begins to relax a bit more than nigheights past. Again introduced fog potential in the fog favored locations in the interior, however, capped this at patchy to account for a weaker guidance signal than the last couple of nights.
Going into Thursday, a bit of a pattern change is expected. The persistent mid level ridge across the western Caribbean will finally begin to build westward across Mexico through the period. This will allow for the mid and upper level flow to transition to a westerly and eventually a northwesterly flow by Friday as a strong shortwave begins to amplify across the eastern US.
Long Term... Friday through Wednesday... Friday through early Saturday morning, a mid-upper level positively tilted trough progressing southeastward across the eastern CONUS will lead to cyclogenesis off the South Carolina/Georgia coastline. As the surface low forms and rapidly deepens, winds across South Florida will swiftly veer from the E/SE to the N/NW by early Friday morning and will simultaneously begin to increase in magnitude. Boundary layer moisture will remain in place across South Florida as the veering occurs, leading to the development of isolated to scattered showers across the eastern portions of South Florida. Additionally, a shallow band of moisture accompanying the front (forecast PW's near 1.60 inches) will advect down into the region. At this time, omitted thunder from grids as the dynamics aren't quite there for South Florida (best dynamics reside well to the north, moreso off the Georgia/Carolina coast).
The aforementioned surface low pressure is forecast to quickly progress northeastward with the main upper-level steering flow as it drags a cold frontal boundary across South Florida throughout the day on Friday. As this occurs, winds will continue to veer from a N/NW direction to a northerly direction in conjunction with a rapidly tightening pressure gradient across South Florida. Wind gusts are currently forecast to be near 30 mph for most areas of South Florida on Friday afternoon, with higher gusts over the Atlantic waters of South Florida. This will introduce hazardous marine conditions (see Marine section below). Forecast soundings even have 20-40 kt gusts in the 850mb level, so wouldn't be surprised to see even higher gusts mixing down. At this time, don't have the confidence for a wind advisory, but will monitor as we go into tomorrow and hi-res guidance filters in.
By Saturday, winds across South Florida will veer from a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction, allowing for moisture to advect from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of South Florida. This will allow for the continuation of isolated to scattered showers across the eastern portions of South Florida. Another breezy day will be in store with with wind gusts forecast to be near 25 mph throughout the day across most of South Florida. Higher gusts can be expected across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida leading to a continuation of hazardous marine conditions.
The pressure gradient will relax slightly on Sunday leading to a decrease in wind speeds across South Florida as high pressure nestles in. Easterly surface winds will allow for isolated showers to move onshore along the Atlantic coastline of South Florida, especially early in the day. The Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida will still see wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph throughout the day on Sunday leading to the continuation of hazardous marine conditions.
Early next week, surface winds will veer to a southeasterly direction, allowing for a slight uptick in boundary layer moisture. Therefore, the chance of showers sticks around across all of South Florida. By mid-week, a frontal boundary approaches South Florida once again, though since this is the end of the forecast period, uncertainty exists.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday drop below average and near average high temps stick around Sunday and Monday. Then a gradual warming trend is in store. Low temperatures drop back down to near normal Saturday and Sunday mornings before yet again warming up.
Marine... Generally tranquil marine conditions through Thursday before a cold front begins to move into the region Friday morning. Behind the front, pressure gradient will increase as a strong 1042mb high pressure settles into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Hazardous seas are expected to persist through much of the upcoming weekend. In fact some wind gusts may approach gale force from time to time, especially across the Atlantic waters. Eventually, this high pressure will begin to move off the North Carolina coast transitioning our winds to a more easterly and then southeasterly fetch in time. Even though the winds will relax a bit, cautionary wording may still be needed for the Atlantic waters early next week.
Beach Forecast... An elevated rip current risk will remain today along the Atlantic beaches. There is some improvement expected tomorrow before the rip current risk begins to increase again on Friday through the weekend. Increasing swell and building northeasterly winds will create a high risk of rip currents for much of the weekend along with the potential for high surf and beach erosion along the Atlantic beaches. These hazardous beach conditions could linger into early next week as well.
Another concern is the potential for coastal flooding with high tide due to the new moon this weekend. The northeasterly to easterly wind, persistent swell, and high seas will contribute to the potential for higher-than-normal tides which could create minor coastal impacts for at least this weekend.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.
Update/Aviation...SPM Short Term
28/Frye Long Term...03/Fell