Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tonight...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds Increasing To 10 Seconds After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Light Showers.|
|Wednesday...East Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Light Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...Winds East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Light Showers.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Light Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night And Friday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Along The Coast To East Southeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Light Showers.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
942 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
High pressure is set to build over the area for the first part of the week. As it does, a frontal system, which has been bringing the active weather to the area for the last couple of days, is forecast to be pushed back to the north. This should allow for a mostly dry day today, with a few showers still possible over the interior. The middle of the week should see another cold front approaching the area, allowing for rain chances to trend upward from Tuesday through the weekend. This will also cause seas to build across the Gulf waters and both seas and swells to build across the Atlantic waters. Winds pick up mid-week as well before dropping by week's end.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Oct 19, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 7 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 10 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 11 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 5 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
905am EDT Monday Oct 21 2019
A weak frontal boundary will continue to move northward today into Central Florida, as high pressure builds westward from the Western Atlantic waters into Lake Okeechobee region. This will allow for both the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland. This will allow for some showers and possibility of a few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon especially around the Lake Okeechobee region where the sea breezes and Lake breeze collide. The forecast shows this and no changes are planned at this time.
There could also be some fog develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning over the interior and west coast metro areas, due to the light winds along with low level moisture. Therefore, patchy to areas of fog has been added for these regions for late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.
.Prev /issued 809am EDT Monday Oct 21 2019/
Aviation... The winds will be mainly from the southeast today at 5 to 10 knots, except for KAPF TAF site where it will go westerly in the afternoon. The weather will mainly be dry today with only an isolated shower during the morning hours. The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions through tonight. The only exception is at KAPF and KTMB TAF sites where they could fall down into MVFR conditions between 08Z and 12Z Tuesday due to fog development.
Prev /issued 313am EDT Monday Oct 21 2019/
Today through Tuesday... The frontal boundary will retreat northward today as high pressure builds over the area aloft. A lighter wind flow is expected today which will allow for the sea breeze to develop along both coasts and advance inland in the afternoon. The collisions between the sea breezes and any outflow boundaries will provide the focus for convection this afternoon, mainly over the interior, though some isolated convection could impact portions of the east coast metro as the sea breezes develop and push inland. Temperatures will once again be above average for this time of year with a good portion of the area reaching at least into the lower 90s. The high pressure building aloft should help keep a lid on convective intensity and overall coverage this afternoon.
The next cold front will enter North Florida later tonight but quickly loses the impulse propelling it southward. As the boundary meanders around the Interstate 10 corridor on Tuesday, the mid-level high pressure continues to hold influence centered just northeast of the region. Moisture will continue to advect in along the light southerly flow which will allow the potential for overnight/early morning fog. Convection on Tuesday will see some diurnal pattern influences but also potentially be aided by the weakening of the mid- level ridge. Temperatures on Tuesday will again by above average with lower to mid 90s possible except for those areas that near the coast that experience the sea breeze earlier in the day. Cannot rule out thunderstorms either day, particularly with boundary collisions over the interior in the afternoons.
Long Term... Tuesday Night through Monday... Long range model solutions continue to suggest increasing rain chances for the middle of the week as the next cold front approaches South Florida. Moisture return ahead of this front will support the chance for scattered showers Tuesday night through Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms possible, especially during the afternoon hours due to daytime heating and enhanced lift associated with the frontal boundary itself. Winds quickly veer to the NE/ENE right after FROPA. Therefore, isolated shallow showers will be possible across the Atlantic waters and east coast metro during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. This front should stall somewhere over extreme southern Florida or even into the Keys before lifting northward as a warm front by week's end, somewhere in the timeframe of Friday into Saturday, so scattered rain chances remain in the forecast. Models are also hinting at some patchy fog early Wednesday morning due to relatively light drainage flow, however, due to lack of confidence, omitted from grids for now, though may be added sometime in the foreseeable future.
By this weekend, a secondary, reinforcing, more potent, frontal boundary sweeps through the Florida panhandle region. Unlike the past couple of days and last several global model runs, significant differences are now rearing their ugly heads for this weekend. While both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continue to support a rather hearty frontal system, the timing, intensity, and FROPA locations differ. The GFS is supporting a more potent cold front crossing the state late this weekend with it stalling out somewhere across central FL. The ECMWF is slower (about a day and a half), less potent, and stalls somewhere across northern FL. Although there is plenty of uncertainty about timing and impacts with this potential front, it is reasonable to expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures remain 2 to 5 degrees above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. More in CLIMATE section below... Marine... Benign boating conditions are expected to continue this morning through Wednesday across all local waters with the exception of an isolated shower/thunderstorm here and there. As a cold front makes its way southward Wednesday, SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) look to develop across all local waters Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible for the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This is due to increasing winds across the Gulf, with increasing winds and swells for the Atlantic.
For the same time period mentioned above, 3 to 4 foot seas in the outer Gulf with 4 to 5 foot seas in the Atlantic. Winds and seas look to drop slightly for the weekend ahead of the next cold front, though due to uncertainty with the front, this may change.
Aviation... Possibility overnight/early morning fog at fog-prone terminals like APF and TMB. Generally VFR the rest of the period, though light flow will allow sea breezes to dominated with convective focus over the interior in the afternoon. Isolated convection is possible as the sea breezes pass the terminals but the chance is too low to include any restrictions with this issuance. Short- fused amendments may be required for sub-VFR conditions.
Beach Forecast... Generally benign beach conditions across South Florida today and tomorrow. An increased threat for rip currents is possible for the Atlantic beaches mid-week due to increased winds and swells ahead of the next cold front.
Climate... Records are in jeopardy yet again for South Florida. Both record high maximum temperatures and record high minimum temperatures are at risk of breaking or tying. Info for the next two days below... LOCATION DATE FORECAST HI-MAX/HI-MIN RECORD
NAPLES 21 OCT 89 / 76 94 / 75 WEST PALM BEACH 21 OCT 90 / 76 91 / 79 FORT LAUDERDALE 21 OCT 89 / 78 91 / 78 MIAMI 21 OCT 90 / 77 89 / 78
NAPLES 22 OCT 89 / 76 92 / 76 WEST PALM BEACH 22 OCT 89 / 77 91 / 78 FORT LAUDERDALE 22 OCT 88 / 79 90 / 81 MIAMI 22 OCT 89 / 78 92 / 80
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
Update...54/BNB Marine...03/Fell Aviation...54/BNB Beach Forecast...03/Fell Short Term
02/RAG Long Term...03/Fell Climate...03/Fell