Marine Weather Net

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUNDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ454 Forecast Issued: 211 PM EDT Sat May 08 2021

Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.
Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.
Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.
Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm
211 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

A ridge of high pressure over the southeast will push offshore through Sunday, with a low pressure system swinging into the Tennessee Valley behind it. This will lead to elevated southerly winds to around 15 to 20 knots on Sunday. Winds should slacken by Monday, but as the low to our northwest gets closer and moisture returns Monday, so will scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Daily chances for storms continue through the end of the work week.

Gulf Stream
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of May 08, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 65 nautical miles east of Flagler Beach.
- 77 nautical miles east southeast of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 90 nautical miles east of Jacksonville Beach.
- 97 nautical miles east of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
247pm EDT Sat May 8 2021

Near Term - Through Tonight
After a near-record cool start to the day, temperatures have quickly recovered into the upper 70s under full sunshine, and highs today are on track to reach 80 to 85 degrees across the interior and the mid to upper 70s at the beaches. Light and variable winds today will become gradually more easterly this afternoon as high pressure over the area moves into the western Atlantic and the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Lows tonight will be warmer, staying mostly in the 50s, with low 60s along the immediate coastline and the St. Johns River.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
The ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the Atlantic waters Sunday. To our northwest, a deepening low pressure system will dig into the TN Valley, tightening up the pressure gradient in place, and bringing breezy conditions to the area tomorrow. Winds Sunday will generally be from the south at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph in the afternoon, mainly at area beaches. Highs will warm back into the upper 80s to around 90 on Sunday and overnight lows will hover in the mid-upper 60s across interior portions of the area, low 70s at the beaches.

The main energy associated with the low pressure system to our northwest will pull off to the northeast, stalling a frontal boundary across the southeastern US. A a few short wave troughs will also be rolling aloft of the northern Gulf coast Monday, along with decaying frontal boundary to our northwest, and southwesterly low level flow will all work together to bring chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday. The highest chances will be in inland SE GA (closer to the decaying frontal boundary) and along the I-95 corridor (where a weak east-coast seabreeze front should be pinned near the coast by the southwesterly winds. Highs Monday will range from the mid 80s in inland SE GA to low 90s along the I-95 corridor and near Ocala. Monday night, temperatures will hover around the upper 60s to around 70.

Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday
An unsettled pattern is in the forecast for most of the upcoming work week. The decaying frontal boundary is forecast to slowly meander further southeast to near the FL-GA border Tuesday through Wednesday. Around Thursday or Friday, a more potent upper level shortwave is poised to swing into the OH Valley and then off the east coast. There's some model discrepancy as to the timing of when the front would exit, but there's general agreement for another fair weather Saturday next week. With the front bisecting the area through at least Wednesday, we'll start with cool to near normal temperatures in SE GA and near to above normal temperatures in NE FL, then trending close to normal by the end of the week.

Marine
A ridge of high pressure over the southeast will push offshore through Sunday, with a low pressure system swinging into the Tennessee Valley behind it. This will lead to elevated southerly winds to around 15 to 20 knots on Sunday. Winds should slacken by Monday, but as the low to our northwest gets closer and moisture returns Monday, so will scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Daily chances for storms continue through the end of the work week.

Rip Currents
Moderate risk at area beaches

Fire Weather
Very dry conditions in place today across the area. The ridge of high pressure in place will continue to build eastward, pushing offshore on Sunday. With a low pressure system moving into the Tennessee Valley tomorrow, southerly winds will surge tomorrow, possibly lingering into Monday. These southerly winds will also lead to elevated dispersions and a gradual increase in humidity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday through Friday.

Hydrology


Minor flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River this weekend, with river levels at the Atkinson gauge expected to fall below flood stage on Sunday afternoon.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.