Marine Weather Net

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ454 Forecast Issued: 802 PM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.
Tuesday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.
Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.
Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 14 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.
Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 13 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
738pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

...New

Issued at 728pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Forecast remains on track as high pressure ridge over the region slowly slides off the GA/Carolina coastline by Tuesday morning. Mainly clear skies and near calm winds are expected tonight and the influx of some low level moisture from the late day East Coast sea breeze may trigger some patchy fog along the I-95 and US 301 corridors of SE GA/NE FL towards sunrise, but no significant dense fog is expected at this time. The excellent radiational cooling conds over inland areas tonight will lead to low temps in the upper 30s over inland SE GA and lower 40s over inland NE FL, with mid/upper 40s along the I-95 corridor and St Johns River Basin, and in the lower 50s for the Atlantic Beaches in the light onshore flow. As high pressure builds further offshore on Tuesday the return low level SE flow will allow for a significant warm-up of at least 30-40 degrees from overnight lows under mostly sunny skies, as highs push well into the mid/upper 70s over inland areas, but only closer to 70 degrees near the Atlantic Coast in the cooler onshore flow traveling over the cooler sea surface temps around 60 degrees in the nearshore Atlantic waters.

Near Term
Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Cool, clear and tonight as surface high pressure builds across GA and the Carolinas. The dry airmass inland will enable temps to fall quickly into the 50s after sunset. With the ridge center building NNE of the region, low level flow will veer more ENE overnight with shallow moisture advection expected to keep dew pts above freezing tonight across SE GA with low temps falling generally into the upper 30s inland...thus kept patchy frost out of the forecast. Developing onshore flow will keep the coast more mild and NE FL mins near climo in the low/mid 40s inland to near 50 coast.

.SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

A continued warming trend with dry conditions and increasing potential for inland late night/early morning fog as the surface ridge builds offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast and upper ridging builds across south FL. Local flow veers ESE with more diurnally enhanced cumulus as high temps warm to near 80 inland with the sea breeze again keeping the coast cooler with highs in the low/mid 70s. Cloud cover further increases Wednesday night as the next frontal system tracks eastward across the Gulf Coast states with low level flow veering SSW and likely brining some low stratus and fog inland with mild lows in the mid/upper 50s.

Long Term
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Thu thru Fri Night...Unsettled weather begins this period with rain chances increasing late Thu as the aforementioned front approaches our western zones Thu evening, with a late day warm front lifting SW to NE across the forecast area. There could be a rouge shower Thu afternoon as the lifting warm front interacts with the more dominant west coast sea breeze, but confidence not high enough to include in the forecast at this time given continued mid level dry air per the GFS20.

Frontal precipitation with this first wave is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity Thu night as dynamics lift NE of the region and high pressure holds firm across south FL, stalling the wave west of our region. The better push for rainfall, including the potential for strong to severe t'storms, will move west to east across our area Fri into Fri evening as a strong mid/upper level trough deepens across the central GOMEX, shifting the surface front and pre-frontal precipitation quickly eastward across the region.

Latest models are in good agreement with potential strong to severe storm timing Friday morning. They continue to support isolated severe storm potential with 0-1 km ML CAPE rising after 12z Friday into the 500-800 J/kg range from SW to NE under 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts and plenty of deep layer moisture in place, with surface based CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) 800-1200 J/kg through 18z from the Suwannee River Valley extending NE toward Waycross & Jesup to the local Atlantic coast and all of NE FL through Friday afternoon.

High temperatures will warm into the low/mid 80s Thu then range in the 70s to low 80s ahead of the front with increasing cloud cover. Mild lows will range in the 60s Thu night, then cooling dramatically into the the 40s trailing the frontal passage Friday night with wind chills in the 30s for some areas by daybreak Saturday morning as precipitation presses offshore.

Sat & Sun...A winter chill returns with windy post-frontal NW flow and chilly high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s Sat as high pressure builds west of the region. Sat night the ridge builds north of the area, with a cool, dry northerly drainage flow dropping min temps into the mid/upper 30s inland but still likely too much wind for frost. The high builds NNE of the region Sunday into Sunday Night with high temperature moderating into the 60s and better frost potential for parts of SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley Sunday night given weaker winds as low temperatures fall into the mid 30s inland to 40s coast.

Mon...Dry conditions continue as temperatures moderate back toward climo values with onshore flow as high pressure builds offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast and another mid/upper level ridge amplifies across the eastern GOMEX/FL peninsula.

Marine
Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

High pressure will build north to northeast of the region tonight through Tuesday then east of the local waters Wednesday. Southerly winds increase Thursday as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and storms will precede the front Friday. The cold front will move south of the local waters Friday night trailed by strong offshore flow and a return of Small Craft Advisory conditions into next weekend as high pressure builds west of the region.

Rip Current Risk: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches through Wednesday.

Fire Weather
Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Winds will become onshore near the Atlantic coast by mid-afternoon with a weak east coast sea breeze brining humidity recovery while inland humidity will fall between 25-30% under light NNW flow. High pressure builds north-northeast of the region tonight through Wednesday with a return of easterly flow and humidity recovery. An east coast sea breeze will press inland each afternoon with gusts near 15 mph at times as temperatures warm above normal values. The next front will approach from the west Thursday night and will cross the local area Friday into Friday night preceded by showers, thunderstorms and breezy SW winds. A much colder and drier airmass will funnel over the area Saturday under windy NW flow.

Hydrology
Issued at 210pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Minor river flooding was cresting along both the Altamaha and Satilla at Atkinson with a gradual fall through the end of the week.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.