St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Shifting To The Southwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.|
|Monday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds, Building To 5 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters Rough. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.|
|Thursday...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.|
|Thursday Night...Hurricane Conditions Possible.|
|Friday...South Winds 30 To 40 Knots With Gusts Up To 55 Knots. Seas 9 To 14 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds, Subsiding To 8 To 11 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters Extremely Rough. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
802pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
Issued at 803pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
Forecast remains on track. Only change on the evening update was the introduction of some patchy fog for inland NE FL. A slight increase in low-level moisture and radiational cooling could lead to early morning fog development. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.
(Through Monday) Issued at 221pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
High pressure ridge will build toward the east Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will move southeast into the area, and stall Monday. Although an isolated shower can not be ruled out along this frontal boundary, moisture is fairly limited through Monday. Lows Tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs Monday around 90 will be common, except a little cooler at the beaches.
.SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
The frontal boundary will stall over the area Monday night through Tuesday, as Tropical System Ian moves north toward the eastern Gulf. Moisture will increase across the area from the south ahead of Ian with chances for precipitation increasing. By Wednesday, clouds will cover the area, with rainfall coverage gradually becoming more widespread from south to north. Onshore flow will also increase Wednesday, with the beaches becoming gusty. Periods of heavy rainfall will also be possible beginning Wednesday, especially across NE FL.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels through Tuesday night, then below on Wednesday due to the expected cloud and precipitation coverage.
(Wednesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 221pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
The Wednesday night through Friday night forecast is completely dependent on the track and timing of Ian. Models are becoming consistent run to run, with gaps from model to model closing. So confidence in going forecast is increasing. Although inland areas take most of the wind with the current forecast, areas to the east, should also be mindful as this track could swing back further east. In addition, areas near and along the coast will also feel wind impacts, due to strong flow across the waters, as the high pressure ridge to the north will produce an enhanced pressure gradient across region even ahead of the storm itself. Periods of heavy rainfall will be expected through at least Friday. Depending on which way Ian goes after landfall, could have precipitation linger through the weekend. At this point, forecasting a gradual increase in shower coverage in the later stage of this period.
Expecting near normal lows this period, with highs below normal.
Issued at 221pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front will move southeast into the region late Tonight into Monday and stall through Tuesday. The forecast from mid to late week will be heavily influenced by the track of Tropical System Ian, which is forecast to track northward through the eastern Gulf. Marine interests should continue to monitor the latest updates on this storm.
Issued at 803pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
We are expecting increasing rainfall chances Tuesday and Tuesday night from south to north and heavy rainfall will be possible late Tuesday night over our southeast zones where a stalled frontal boundary lingers ahead of Ian.
Wednesday through Friday, heavy rainfall chances increase further as Ian moves northward. Heavy rainfall impacts will likely include urban/localized flash flooding, along with the potential for moderate river flooding for basins across inland NE FL. Though preliminary, the moderate river flooding may include the Santa Fe and the St Marys Rivers. Actual rainfall amounts will depend on the eventual track but widespread totals of 6-12 inches are indicated in the latest forecasts. Stay tuned for further updates on the heavy rainfall threat.
NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories