Marine Weather Net

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

ESE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ454 Forecast Issued: 823 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

Tonight...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Friday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
846pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022

Very isolated shower or thunderstorm possible into rest of the evening hours over northeast FL due to residual instability left over from the heating today combined with sea breezes and outflow boundaries. The convection should dissipate by midnight as the boundary layer cools further. Lows tonight expected to be in the 60s with potential for patchy fog and low clouds toward early morning. For Wednesday, based on today's weather, we should see mainly isolated thunderstorms for northeast/north central FL again, with moisture levels near the same or slightly less than today. Well-defined subsidence inversion around 10-12 kft on observed and model soundings will help limit coverage. However, seeing an an upstream mid level shortwave moving into the region late which could provide support for convection into the evening hours. Otherwise, just minor changes for the forecast tonight and Wednesday for rain chances.

Marine
No significant changes other than minor tweaks to the winds and seas.

54pm EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight
A weak and nearly stalled frontal zone is draped across north central FL this afternoon with drier, stable conditions north of it and more unstable airmass to the south where more favorable moisture exits (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 1.25"). Sea breezes have worked inland from the east (Atlantic) and west (Gulf of Mexico) this afternoon and widely scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed in the supportive, unstable airmass south of the stalled front. Northwesterly steering flow will act to push convection southward as it develops through the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across Alachua, Marion, Putnam counties through the late afternoon and early evening as the sea breezes merge. Any lingering activity will quickly diminish after sunset this evening. Patchy fog development will possible late tonight from the Suwannee Valley northeastward into coastal southeast GA. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool into the low 60s across inland southeast GA and to the mid/upper 60s in inland northeast FL while the coastal areas will fall to near 70.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night

What's left of the stalled boundary laying across NE FL will be lift northward as prevailing flow becomes southwesterly with low level ridging builds offshore on Wednesday. Aloft, a ridge will begin to build in from the west and, despite moistening flow, strengthening subsidence should limit shower/storm development but isolated showers or a storm cannot be entirely ruled out along the sea breezes during the afternoon or as they converge during the early evening. Ridging aloft will amplify Thursday and the subsidence and dry mid level air should limit convective potential. Hot temperatures will continue through this period and the hottest day will be Thursday. Readings will peak in the around the mid 90s and may threaten some daily high temperature records.

Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
An influx moisture surge will bring high-grade moisture northward across the the entire FL peninsula Friday. This tropically-sourced moisture overspread the entire area by Saturday, bringing PWATs near 2" through at least the weekend and possibly into next week. Deep moisture will establish a diurnally unstable airmass and support afternoon scattered thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend. Ridging aloft will amplify well to the east over the weekend while an upper wave slowly lifts northeastward out of the Gulf along a frontal boundary Sunday into Monday. This recipe may be the potential for strong and potentially severe convection Sunday/Monday if trends hold. There will be a "cool" down towards normal this weekend as the upper ridge moves to the east.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.