Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Ne With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Fri...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt Late. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
728pm EDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
High pressure will briefly build over our region Thursday. Low pressure will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley on Friday and then into the Mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. The low will finally pull away from the region Sunday, followed by a return to high pressure, which will persist through midweek.
Near Term - Through Thursday
A brief bit of respite as the nor'easter that recently affected our region departs, and the next system continues to nudge its way closer across the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak mid-level ridge will build across the region as weak high pressure or a lack of low pressure, rather, builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the day Thursday. The 500-mb trough across the Southern Plains will begin to close off as it moves across the Mississippi tomorrow, with surface low pressure becoming vertically stacked beneath it.
As for our sensible weather, winds will continue.nue to diminish tonight. They should begin to veer to the northeast and eventually more to the east on Thursday as the weak ridge moves overhead. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler as skies continue to clear dropping into the low to mid 40s across the region. A few spots may dip into the upper 30s in the Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey, but winds should stay just strong enough to preclude much in the way of any frost threat. Some patchy fog is possible in the river valleys of southeastern Pennsylvania more sheltered from the wind.
Overall, a fair day on Thursday temperature-wise, though the added sunshine will help add some perfection points for sure. Highs just a degree or two cooler than today in the low 60s, with upper 50s north of I-80. Much less breezy with easterly winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will move through the Tennessee Valley Thursday night and into the Ohio Valley on Friday before pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Saturday. The low is accompanied by a very strong upper level closed low and appears to be stacked on top of the surface low. Guidance continues to slow things down a bit with the main precipitation shield not reaching the region until at Friday with the bulk of the precipitation moving through Friday and Friday night before starting to taper off on Saturday. Models continue to indicate that some cyclogensis may occur near our region on Friday, with a 50-60 kt southeasterly low level jet across our area. This would increase the moisture transport across the area and increase our risk for heavy rain and flooding. This is concerning, especially as we have fairly wet antecedent conditions across the northern half of our forecast area. Rainfall amounts vary widely with some solutions showing the heaviest band right through the I-95 corridor, which has seen heavy rain already this week and is more susceptible for flooding concerns. Best case scenario would be a slight southward shift of the rains, moving them into less impacted areas, so this will need to monitored closely over the next severe model cycle runs.
Additionally, with the strong low level jet, we will likely see increased winds at the surface, especially along the coastal areas, and will need to monitor for any kind of wind headlines. Right now, soundings don't show great mixing to the surface resulting in winds that are currently expected to remain just below advisory levels.
Still lots of uncertainty when it comes to the fine details of this storm as the model guidance is just latching onto the newer trends that started overnight. Slight shifts in the track or position of the upper low vs the surface low could impact the forecast in a big way. As the next round of guidance comes in, we may have increased confidence and can then consider any potential headlines for Friday.
The system starts to wind down as we head into Saturday and things should start to dry out a bit across the region, especially from west to east, though rain will remain possible through much of the day as the low starts to track to the north and east. The strong east winds will slacken off and become more southwesterly through the day. Don't fully expect the skies to clear but would not be surprised to see peeks of sun, moreso over southern areas.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
By Saturday night, the bulk of the steady, heavier rain looks to have ended. As the Friday/Saturday system lifts out, the precipitation should lift out as well. It should be mainly dry Saturday night into Sunday with only a slight possibility (10-20 % across the south and 20-30% across the far north.) of precipitation. Areas across the far north and in the Poconos have the longest potential to see any activity with may, but even there it looks to be still around a 20% possibility towards daybreak Sunday. Otherwise for the weekend, high temperatures look to remain about 5 degrees above normal with low temperatures about 5-10 degrees above normal as significant cloud cover would keep the temperatures up during the night.
The rest of the long-term period looks to be rather quiet and benign. Some northwesterly flow is is expected in the area Sunday after the system exits. For Monday into Tuesday, expect a shift to more southwesterly winds as the overall flow over the CONUS amplifies. The next system that impacts the northern Great Lakes and northern plains by the middle of next week does not seem to be a major factor in the weather here with any jet support remaining well to the north.
Temperatures look to remain above normal for the rest of the period, but trend down closer to normal by the middle of the week.
An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag remains in effect for the ocean waters through 8 pm Thursday. Northerly winds from 20 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots on the Atlantic waters through midnight will lower to gusts from 25 to 30 knots after midnight through 7 am.
Winds drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds on all the waters Thursday morning, but seas remain elevated from 4 to 7 feet through much of the day, thus an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for the ocean waters through 8 pm.
Outlook... Thursday night though Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters Thursday night. Winds are expected to ramp up Friday morning, reaching gale force and continuing into Friday night. Winds will drop down to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions late Friday night into early Saturday, then drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels from south to north. Northeast winds around 15 to 20 knots Thursday night will become east around 25 to 30 knots on Friday, eventually becoming southerly at 10 to 20 knots on Saturday, then southwesterly on Sunday.
Seas will remain elevated and above 5 feet through the end of the weekend. Seas will be around 5 to 7 feet Thursday night into Friday, building to 7 to 10 feet on Friday and Friday night, dropping back down to 5 to 7 feet on Saturday and then remaining around 5 feet on Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday...Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet Sunday night. Once seas drop, expect sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to continue through Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Complex low pressure is expected to meander off southeastern New England and Long Island before drifting farther out to sea. Another low is forecast to approach from the west and southwest late in the week.
The wind should then veer gradually to the northeast and east through Friday. The expected pattern through the end of the work week will allow little opportunity for water to drain away from the coast. As a result, we will continue.nue to monitor for the possibility of minor flooding in the tidal areas of New Jersey and Delaware, and along Delaware Bay. Fortunately, the astronomical tides associated with the last quarter moon will work in our favor. It will take a 2 foot departure at the midday high tides, and a 3 foot departure at the overnight high tides to cause minor flooding.
Based on the tidal departures we saw with the Tuesday night high tide, the coastal flood advisory has been expanded to include all of the NJ and DE coasts. Expect widespread minor flooding in these locations. One note in these areas is that I am especially concerned with Barnegat Bay. Due to the flow regime, water will be very slow to drain out of Barnegat Bay, so tidal departures will likely build with time. Meaning that Barnegat Bay could even see tidal flooding with the night time (lower astronomical) high tides as we get into Thursday night and beyond. For now though, given the uncertainty with this pattern, have decided to only issue headlines for today's high tide cycle.
For now, the advisory doesn't include the Delaware Bay or Delaware river as water should have a chance to evacuate out of the bay in the flow regime today. However, one complicating factor is that increased freshwater flow (from the heavy rain yesterday) may raise the tide levels even further. That being said, we will likely stay below minor thresholds in these locations today, but will have to watch future tide cycles, especially on Friday, for a potential increased risk.
With the persistent nature of the onshore flow, we may even see some minor flooding on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay as we get into Thursday and Friday.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6pm EDT Thursday for NJZ020-026-027. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 6pm EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm to 10pm EDT Thursday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 6pm EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm to 10pm EDT Thursday for DEZ001. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.