Marine Weather Net

Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ453 Forecast Issued: 102 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds.
Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...N Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
110am EDT Monday April 22 2024

Synopsis
High pressure extending eastward from the Midwest to the Mid- Atlantic will continue to build eastward toward the East Coast through Tuesday. A cold front will swing through our region on Wednesday, followed by another area of high pressure pushing southeastward from the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. Chances for rain potentially return next weekend.

Near Term - Through Today
As of 1:00AM...Conditions remain tranquil but chilly. Cloud cover with the exiting low pressure has moved off the coast leaving just some scattered high clouds passing over Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. These should gradually work their way eastward toward the coast with time early this morning. Otherwise, the only other thing to note is that temps have fallen quicker than expected, so have adjusted temps for the next several hours. Overall, lows shouldn't differ much from what was previously forecast.

Previous discussion remains per below:

A weak cold front will pass north of the region late tonight as low pressure tracks across Canada. Surface high pressure over the Central Plains builds east tonight, and then will become elongated over the East Coast Monday afternoon.

Outside of the urban corridor, radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop. Lows will drop into the 20s in the southern Poconos, and in the low 30s for most areas north and west of the I-95 corridor. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 30s elsewhere. Patchy frost and areas of frost will look to develop for many locations across the region tonight except immediate coastal and urban areas. The spring Frost/Freeze program has not stared for Carbon and Monroe counties in PA, but it has started for the rest of the forecast area. A Frost Advisory is now in effect for all our NJ counties (except coastal areas), New Castle County in DE, and all our eligible PA counties with the exception of Philadelphia County.

Abundant sunshine on tap for Monday. A westerly flow will develop over the area, so will side on the warmer side of model guidance and run with the NBM90 for highs generally in the low to mid 60s, but cooler along the coasts.

.Short Term - Tonight through Wednesday
High pressure remains in control for the first half of the short term forecast period as it becomes centered over the area Monday night. Patchy frost will be possible again as temperatures fall into the 30s outside the immediate I-95 corridor and coastal areas. This potential development will be aided by the light to near calm winds with the high overhead. However, dew points look to be on the drier side in the upper 20s to low 30s which should prevent widespread frost development.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of this week as light south-southwesterly flow returns with the high shifting offshore. Temperatures look to rise unto the upper 60s to right around 70 for most locations (high temps right around 60 at higher elevations and along the immediate coasts of NJ/DE).

Our attention then turns to the next approaching low pressure system which will begin to push into the region Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. The most significant change to the forecast with this system has been the reduced likelihood of seeing any thunderstorm development. While we still cannot completely rule it out, chances are now less than 15 percent areawide as the front appears to be arriving earlier in the day which will reduce available surface-based instability. If a thunderstorm were to develop, the most likely location remains northwest of the I-95 urban corridor, where the best mid-upper level forcing will be. Overall, the system still appears to be rather dry with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast likely less than a quarter of inch for most locations. A tight pressure gradient and mixing down of stronger winds will lead Wednesday to be breezy with gusts around 25-35 mph. Temperatures will again rise into the upper 60s to near 70 mid-day Wednesday before falling after frontal passage Wednesday evening.

Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
After the passage of the cold front on Wednesday, high pressure will push back into the region Wednesday night and influence the region through at least Friday night. As such, dry conditions will resume across the region Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. Temperatures will gradually warm through this period though remaining below normal.

The next opportunity for rain in the region could be as early as Saturday or Sunday. However, this remains highly uncertain with global model suites split on potential solutions. Latest ECMWF/CMC indicate the high and a building upper-level ridge will setup a block over or to the east of the region and prevent a developing low over the Midwest from encroaching on the region while the GFS (Global Forecast System) brings the low further east with rain chances along with it. At this time, given the uncertainty, did not stray too far from NBM guidance but wouldn't be surprised if Probability of Precipitation was reduced to be less than the 30-40% they stand at right now with the next forecast cycle.

Marine
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap through Monday. NW/NNW winds generally 10-15 kts becoming SE Monday afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook... Monday Night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected with fair weather.

Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible (30-40%), most likely Wednesday night. Southerly winds around 15 kt gusting to around 20 kts, shifting to the W/NW later in the day as a cold front swings through. Gusts may increase to around 25 knots following the wind shift. Seas build 4 to 5 ft Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected with fair weather.

Fire Weather
A dry air mass will overspread the region on Monday. West winds will generally be around 10 mph in the afternoon. Although these winds are not strong, it will be quite dry. Surface dew points will mix down into the mid 20s, and Min RH values will range from 20 to 25 percent.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A prolonged period of southerly flow will develop during the middle of the week ahead of a cold front that will push offshore on Thursday. This is forecast to result in surge values rising to around 1-2 feet above normal along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay. With the full moon occurring on Tuesday, astronomical tides will be maximized around this time as well. This should result in some areas of minor coastal flooding with the Wednesday night high tide, although the extent and exact areas that may experience the most impact remains unclear at this time.

Coastal flooding is not currently anticipated along the Atlantic coast, except for potentially Barnegat Bay.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for PAZ060>062-070- 101>106. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>023-027. DE...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for DEZ001. MD...None.

Marine
None.