Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early In The Morning. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft In The Morning, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1101am EDT Monday September 23 2019
A cold front will approach today and then move across the region tonight. High pressure returns for the mid-week period, followed by another cold front late Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure builds back into the Northeast for the end of the week into next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
A nice start to the day continues across the area as a weak pre-frontal trough remains in place. An area of showers associated with a short wave/vorticity impulse will approach the this afternoon, but likely mostly dissipate as it reaches our area. There will remain a chance of showers for the afternoon for northeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, but showers are more likely for all areas later this evening as a cold front moves across the area. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms as there is some instability, however, they are not expected to be very widespread. A brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible later this evening and overnight for some areas as PW values (Precipitable Water values) approach 1.75 inches.
Another well above normal day temperature wise expected today with most areas in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 for some locations. Winds will become gusty around 15-20 mph, with gusts around 25 mph possible at times.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Tuesday
Overnight Monday should be a fairly pleasant evening. Temps behind the cold front will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s and the rainfall will be exiting to the east. Clouds will be clearing from west to east across the region as high pressure starts building back across the Mid-Atlantic setting up for a nice week!
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
Tuesday through Wednesday night... Low pressure with its associated cold front will continue to slowly move off to the east through Tuesday while high pressure sits across the Ohio Valley. This will keep the area in a cooler, dry NW flow with temperatures a good 10 degrees or so cooler compared to Monday. Most of the area should see mainly sunny skies but there will be a fair bit of Cumulus clouds developing across the Poconos into NW NJ. Highs will be mainly in the 75-80 range except a bit cooler in these northern areas where it will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
High pressure drifts east towards the region Tuesday night resulting in mainly clear skies and light winds. This will allow for good radiational cooling conditions so lows will be comfortably cool...generally in the mid to upper 50s with some upper 40s over the southern Poconos. This will be followed by sunshine, light west winds and seasonably warm temperatures for Wednesday under dominant high pressure with highs generally in the 70s to around 80.
By Wednesday night, high pressure moves eastward off the coast with the flow turning light SW ahead of the next approaching cold front. This will allow for somewhat warmer overnight lows under continuing mainly clear skies. Lows will be mainly in the 50s to low 60s, coolest in the southern Poconos and warmest over the Delmarva NE through the Philly urban area.
Thursday through Sunday... In the big picture, large scale upper level ridging looks to continue dominating in the east bringing generally fair weather with seasonably warm temperatures. That said, there is some uncertainty in the forecast by next weekend as the GFS brings a cold front through the area flattening the ridge while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) maintains strong ridging.
To start the period Thursday, a cold front approaches and then moves through the area late day. However this still looks to be largely a dry front as most of upper level energy associated with a progressive upper trough will be to our north. So for this reason, expect an overall partly to mostly sunny day with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s along with moderate humidity levels. Exception will be the southern Poconos where it will be in the 70s.
Cold front quickly sweeps east of the region Thursday night with high pressure and strong ridging aloft moving back in by Friday. This will bring more sunshine with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity. Beyond this time, as mentioned above, some uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend. GFS brings a cold front through from north to south Saturday along with some scattered showers and then stalls this front near or just south of the area Sunday as high pressure moves back in from the north. ECMWF maintains strong ridge keeping conditions warm and dry. At this point, made little change from previous forecast and keep conditions mainly dry for next weekend with highs mainly in the 80s. However if GFS solution ends up coming to fruition it could be cooler and a little bit unsettled with a few showers around at times but not a washout.
South to southwest winds 10 to 20 kt are expected to continue through Today with gusts approaching 25 kt by afternoon. Expect winds to continue into the overnight hours for the Atlantic waters, with winds expected to be somewhat lower on Delaware Bay.
In addition, seas will increase to around or slightly above 5 feet by afternoon. As a result, have issued a small craft advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters.
Outlook... Tuesday...Conditions expected to be sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with NW winds 10-15 knots and seas 3-5 feet.
Wednesday...sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected with NW winds around 10 knots turning southwesterly through the afternoon and seas from 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday...sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected with southwesterly winds continuing from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected with northeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots turning easterly by the afternoon. Seas to sit from 1 to 3 feet.
RIP CURRENTS... There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at New Jersey and Delaware beaches on Monday due to increasing winds and seas. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for this risk.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.