Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight, Then Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 258pm EDT Monday August 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch is no longer in effect for portions of northern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. There is increasing concern for heat impacts during the later half of the week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front passing through the region will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain leading to flash flooding. There is also a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. 2. Low pressure south of the area will push a warm front north through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. 3. For the later half of the week, we will have a hot, humid, and at times stormy pattern in place. KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front passing through the region will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain leading to flash flooding. There is also a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. The cold front continues to work its way through eastern Pennsylvania, and latest surface obs show a noted drop in dew points. Ahead of the cold front, dew points are well in the 70s, but behind the front, dew points are generally in the low to mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire up ahead of the front, and due to those high dew points and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in excess of 2 inches, heavy rain continue to develop. This has resulted in flash flooding earlier today, and heavy rain is continuing to result in additional flash flood and flood warnings. Will go ahead and cancel the Flood Watch that was in effect for portions of northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania where the rain has ended, but the Flood Watch remains in effect elsewhere through this evening. The Weather Prediction Center has New Jersey and portions of southeast Pennsylvania in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (2 out of 4) for the rest of today. The severe risk remains uncertain, though breaks in the clouds will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 80s or so. SBCAPE values are upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. There is also 40 kt of shear that will pass through the region with the front. As a result, any severe storms will be isolated, but still possible. Important to note that for areas where the ground becomes saturated due to heavy rain, it will not take severe level gusts to bring down trees. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure south of the area will push a warm front north through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. The cold front works its way through the region tonight, then washes out over the area on Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the north and west on Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. A pleasant day on tap for Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s and dew points generally in the low 60s. A warm front then lifts north through the region Tuesday night, allowing showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Low pressure developing over the Southeast lifts north along the Eastern Seaboard, but there is considerable uncertainty as to its track. 12Z GFS (Global Forecast System) takes it out to sea with minimal impacts to the area, while the 12Z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) as it inland across Pennsylvania, where the heaviest rain will fall, and the 12Z NAM brings it right over the I-95 corridor. Heavy rain will result in flash flooding, but it is uncertain as to where that heavy rain will fall. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a 1 out of 4. For now, will follow the NBM and carry high chance to low end likely Probability of Precipitation for most of the region. There is the potential for another 1/2 inch to 1 inch of rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 3...For the later half of the week, we will have a hot, humid, and at times stormy pattern in place. Expect a prolonged period of southwesterly flow as our region will be in between a Bermuda High well to our east, and a mid level long wave trough that will be slowly sliding east over the northern tier of the U.S./southern Canada. As such, heat and humidity will be building throughout the later half of the week. At this point, Friday and Saturday appear to be the warmest days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to near 90. That in and of itself is pretty close to normal. However, with dewpoints in the mid 70s possible, we could get heat index values at or above 100 degrees for much of the area. All that being said, this still doesn't look nearly as impactful an extreme heat setup as what we saw earlier this summer during the first week of July. The other aspect of this are the daily storm chances, primarily confined to the afternoon and evening with a typical diurnal pattern. Given the hot and humid conditions that will be in place, we can't rule out the more common thunderstorm hazards of damaging winds and heavy rain/flooding, but in general, I don't see any one day that has an especially high threat of any of these at this time. If an embedded short wave trough crosses our region as the larger trough axis approaches, that could increase the risk, particularly for severe threats, but trying to time that out at this point would be very difficult, given that we are still seeing some differences between the models with the larger pattern. Marine A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 am Tuesday, primarily for elevated seas on the ocean of 6 to 9 feet. Seas will subside this evening, and the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be able to be cancelled prior to that. South winds generally 15 to 20 kt, however, gusts of 30 to 35 kt possible in thunderstorms. Winds veer to the northeast tonight at 10 to 15 kt, and then turn east on Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday night through Saturday...Overall, a prolonged period of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, however there is a chance for 25+ kt wind gusts Thursday night and Friday night. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible as well. Rip Currents... There is a HIGH risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents along the NJ coast today due to long period swells with surf heights near or above 3 feet. For the Delaware Beaches, there is a MODERATE risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents. Looking ahead to Tuesday, surf heigheights should decrease, so the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected to be MODERATE along the NJ coast, and LOW for the Delaware Beaches. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...Flood Watch until 11pm EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-104- 106. NJ...Flood Watch until 11pm EDT this evening for NJZ008>010- 012>019. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...Flood Watch until 11pm EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455. |
Dover DE Radar
Northeast Radar