Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Sprinkles. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Nw With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds.|
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The W With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
132pm EST Monday Jan 18 2021
A few weak upper air disturbances will affect the weather today and into Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the area Later Tuesday. High pressure return for the middle of the week with cold air and breezy conditions. Low pressure passes north of the area Thursday and Friday with another cold front crossing the region. High pressure returns for the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
No significant changes have been to the forecast for this afternoon, mainly minor hourly adjustments.
Low pressure continues to slowly drift northward across eastern Canada, with a backdoor cold front sagging down across the northeast states with a weak surface trough approaching from the west. The back door cold front to our north will continue to sag a little farther south, and may make its way into northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey by the end of the day. With west to northwest winds, along with the approach of the back door cold front and an approaching short wave, we could have some lake effect/enhanced snow showers/squall develop by the afternoon and affect portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, especially the Poconos and northwest New Jersey later this afternoon. In fact, it would not be surprising to see a few squalls develop. This is due to the fact that low- mid level lapse rates will continue to steepen quite significantly by this afternoon, and low-mid level moisture will increase as well, especially across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. If heavier showers or squalls do develop, it is possible that some places in the Poconos could see a half inch to an inch of snow when all is said and done. Elsewhere, with the steepening lapse rates and a slight increase in moisture, there is a slight chance for sprinkles or flurries to develop during the afternoon. Temperatures remain above normal.
For tonight...the vort max will move quickly offshore by this evening, with transient ridging giving way to more zonal midlevel flow. Mostly dry conditions should result. As a surface high in the Southeast progresses eastward in tandem with a weak low near the Great Lakes, a steady pressure gradient will remain across the area, so winds may not completely decouple again. Though I suspect temperatures will be a little colder than this morning (particularly given expected decrease in cloud cover), not quite sold on the colder guidance. Currently have lows in the middle 20s to around freezing in the urban corridor.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
The last of the lingering Great Lakes surface low and upper energy moves away Tuesday with a trailing cold front expected to cross the area. Dry weather will be across just about all of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night with perhaps a couple snow showers for the southern Poconos. Much of the same for Wednesday with the arctic air settling across the area. Lake effect snow showers may reach the southern Poconos again, but with the dry air arriving, nothing too significant is expected.
Temperatures will be a bit above average Tuesday and below normal for Wed. A gusty W to NW wind, especially Wed, will bring a noticeable wind chill to the area, despite the sunny conditions.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
The period of dry weather continues in the long term. The one system we have been watching this past weekend is trending drier with a deepening low pressure system and not much moisture to work with. The low will track north of the Great Lakes later Thu then into New England Fri. Its associated fronts could bring some snow showers to the southern Poconos, but other than that widespread precipitation may have to wait until early next week.
Temperatures will be moderating Thu/Fri after the cold day Wed. Readings will reach back to near normal values Thu and a few degrees above normal for Fri. The cold air behind the aforementioned low will sweep over the region next weekend, so below normal temps and breezy conditions expected then. Highs in the 20s N/W to mid 30s S/E for next weekend.
Small Craft Advisory now in effect as winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 kt (possibly with a few higher gusts) this afternoon and this evening before a gradual weakening trend overnight on lower Delaware Bay and the Atlantic waters. It will remain in effect through 6 am Tuesday (though this may be a tad long in duration). Sub-advisory conditions are expected on upper Delaware Bay.
Seas should generally range from 3 to 5 feet through tonight.
Outlook... A prolonged period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with 25-30 kt gusts are expected for much of the upcoming week. Cannot rule out a few gale gusts on Wednesday. Fair weather much of the week.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.