Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
730am EDT Sat August 8 2020
A stationary front is expected to weaken and washout during the day today. High pressure will build into the area tomorrow, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England around the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
The front will continue to sag south of our area today, becoming increasingly diffuse as it does so. At the surface the Mid-Atlantic will lie between a decaying (and weak) offshore low, and an elongated area of High Pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. H5 heigheights will rise slightly behind the passage of a fairly potent shortwave this morning with associated mid-level drying.
The day will begin with some stratus and (likely more limited in spatial coverage) fog, and expect that the stratus will only slowly burn off through the morning hours and may even persist into the early afternoon in some spots (particularly near the coast) given very prevailing onshore flow.
The weak dynamic subsidence behind the aforementioned wave combined with drying aloft, and generally weaker lapse rates should limit convective coverage and intensity today. That being said enough low- level moisture remains pooled across our area to support the development of isolated or perhaps even scattered convection this afternoon. Guidance generally focuses convective initiation on two areas, the first being near the NJ/Delaware coasts near the sea breeze boundary, while the second area is associated with a weak trailing shortwave that crosses the Poconos late this afternoon. Focused the highest Probability of Precipitation in these locations, but did broadbrush at least Slight Chc everywhere. Given only modest shear/instability/lapse rates think the overall severe threat is low. The heavy rain threat doesn't appear to serious either given decreasing moisture, however can't completely rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moist low-lvls.
Highs should top out in the mid 80s in most spots, although with dewpoints near or above 70 it will feel fairly muggy.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
In general a quiet night is expected tomorrow night, however some guidance is depicting some light precipitation in association with a weak shortwave later in the night. Not really buying anything notable at this point as the dynamics look weak, and (as is important in the warm season) the diurnal timing is not favorable. Fog/Stratus potential doesn't look particularly impressive with only the most pessimistic guidance (e.g. the NAM and its derivatives) showing it developing. Lows should generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
Overview: For a change, the long term should be starting rather tranquil as far as weather is concerned. A broad mid and upper level trough slowly drifting east may bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as mid week.
Sunday and Monday...In the wake of the mid level trough finally exiting our region, high pressure is expected to build in. The GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continue to show a weak upper level trough traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but any impacts from this system should stay well to our north. Thanks to the low level southerly/southwesterly flow, expect a slight warming trend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s on Sunday and lower 90s on Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...A broad upper level low is expected to continue to slowly drift east across central Canada. There continues to be some uncertainty in how soon, if at all, our region will see impacts (both in the form of rain and a cold front) associated with this system. Some of the more progressive solutions show rain in our region as early as Monday night, with the cold front getting into the southern Poconos by Wednesday before stalling. Other guidance shows rain chances in our region not increasing until Wednesday night and the front stalling well north of our region. For now, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a consensus blend of guidance until there is better agreement on the timing of this system.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected with light easterly winds (gusts <15kts) and around 2 foot seas prevailing through the day on Saturday
Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria.
Rip Currents... The Rip Current risk is expected to remain low through the weekend as wave heigheights in the surf zone remain in the 1-2 foot range and a 7-10 second southeasterly swell prevails.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31) is off the air.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
Synopsis...Johnson Near Term
Carr/Franklin Short Term
Carr Long Term...Haines/Johnson Aviation...Carr/Johnson/Franklin Marine...Carr/Johnson Equipment...WFO PHI