Marine Weather Net

Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ453 Forecast Issued: 430 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Se Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Tonight...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Se Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming S 2 To 4 Ft At 5 Seconds After Midnight.
Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Sw Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 4 Seconds.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Se Swell Around 2 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. S Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. S Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Evening, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
343am EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Synopsis
High pressure centered to our south will dominate our weather through Saturday. This high will retreat to the east by later Sunday with a cold front moving through Sunday night into Monday and then stalling near or just south of the region. A series of disturbances are forecast to track north and east along this frontal boundary next week.

Near Term - Through Saturday
High pressure will build in to our south over the southeastern states through the day today. Meanwhile there will continue to be some weak impulses moving through in the upper level flow. The upshot is that tranquil weather will prevail for the end of the week but similar to Thursday, today will feature a fair amount of strato- cu development. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies near and north of the urban corridor with more in the way of sunshine farther south towards the coast. The good news is winds will be lighter compared to Thursday as the pressure gradient continues to relax. Generally expect west winds around 10 mph. Highs will be mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s.

For tonight, high pressure remains centered to our south near the Carolinas while a low pressure system moves by well to our north as it passes eastward from northern Ontario into Quebec. This will result in a warm advection pattern developing aloft along with some mid and high cloudiness moving through. However diminishing winds at the surface should help with modest radiational cooling balancing out the warm advection so expect lows mainly in the 20s to low 30s (similar to this morning's lows).

For Saturday, the high pressure system to our south moves eastward off the east coast helping create a continuing warm air advection pattern due to W/SW winds around 10 mph. This will result in a moderating trend in temperatures with highs mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s...so about 10 degrees warmer compared to today. The day should begin mainly sunny followed by some increasing mid and high clouds moving in by afternoon.

Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday
High pressure remains in control Saturday night, keeping the forecast quiet across the region. Offshore high will provide weak warm air advection into the region overnight, in addition to some mid to high clouds, helping keep temps fairly mild overnight. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s.

For Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted upper- level trough, surface low pressure is forecast to track to our west and north. The energy overall looks to split with one low going to our north and northeast and another one trailing to the southwest. This should result in the more organized precipitation shield to our west breaking up or splitting as it moves through our region along with an associated cold front. We continue to include slight chance to chance Probability of Precipitation as the intensity of the system moving looks to be on the weak side. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the cold front will drive increasing warm air advection. Despite clouds increasing during the day Sunday, temperatures should get into the low to mid 50s across the coastal plain (cooler along the coast however) and low to mid 40s north and west of the fall line. Temperatures Sunday night will be milder for areas mainly south of the I-80 corridor with lows in the 30s to near 40.

Come Monday, the departing weak low will pull a cold front across our area. Additionally, the trailing low pressure system across the Southeast will become more invigorated as the positively tilted polar trough begins to dig. As a result, there could be still enough lift to provide mainly some rain/showers across especially the southern areas to start Monday. There may end up being a lot of cloud cover lingering for much of the region as well, and as a narrow but weak zone of high pressure slides across our region that could be enough to break up the cloud cover.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Thursday
Summary...Active weather pattern will linger across the eastern US through the end of the week. Colder air will be lurking to the north/west and this may settle south depending on a storm track centered Tuesday through Thursday.

Synoptic Overview...As more energy is shifted into western Canada from the Pacific, more of a trough is across central to eastern Canada with this dipping into the U.S. This setup tends to favor the baroclinic zone shifting farther south and east and therefore between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. The ensemble guidance continues to show this overall pattern setting up, however there remains differences in the handling of the Canadian trough and also the southern energy. The northern trough however looks to drive low pressure along a front and this may slide right across the Mid- Atlantic region in the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. One of the questions is how much cold air can press southward and meet up with moisture as this system slides on by. Given the trough that is forecast, the surface low reflection should be a quick moving system. The timing also varies at least some among the guidance. Plenty of time to hammer out any details, however the pattern is looking more favorable for energy sliding near or just to our south with moisture potentially teaming up with colder air arriving from the northwest.

Through Thursday...High uncertainty remains in the long-term forecast period. The evolving pattern in the model guidance, including ensembles, is pointing toward a farther south and east storm track from what we have been dealing with. This is courtesy of the storm track off the Pacific more into western Canada, which drives more of a trough from central/eastern Canada down into the eastern U.S. This tends to favor the baroclinic zone setting up between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. This shifting pattern, while is evident in the guidance, carries differences regarding the timing and also magnitude of southern energy sliding along a baroclinic zone. There looks to be at least two waves that traverse the thermal gradient corridor during this time frame, although the details are much more less certain. What may occur is a series of weak and strung out surface features tracking along the boundary, however decent lift can accompany these especially along the front and into the colder air to its north. With time however, the baroclinic zone may be shoved farther south and east as the upper-level trough shifts east and potentially strong/cold high pressure builds in from the west.

The air mass to our north and west is forecast to becoming increasingly colder with time. As a result, and depending on the timing and track of the southern waves of energy, we may trend colder into the second part of next week. Given the uncertainty, we continued to stick very close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance.

Marine
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 7am for the New Jersey coastal waters due to seas continuing to be around 5 ft and winds gusting up to 25 knots. Conditions should diminish below Small Craft Advisory levels around sunrise. Another period of Small Craft Advisory level conditions will be possible for the ocean zones overnight Friday night into Saturday morning as southwest winds increase to around 20 gusting up to 25 knots.

Outlook... Sunday...Southerly winds may gust close to 25 knots for a time, mainly on the Atlantic coastal waters.

Monday and Tuesday...The conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ450>453.