Marine Weather Net

Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NW
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ453 Forecast Issued: 1233 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then 3 To 4 Ft This Afternoon. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.
Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.
Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The W With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Morning, Then Rain In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Late.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening.
Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238pm EST Monday Nov 11 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front extended from northern New England to the southern Great Plains early this morning. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in the Ohio River Valley today. It is expected to progress northeastward, reaching New England late tonight. The low is anticipated to pull the cold front through our region early on Tuesday. Cold high pressure is expected to follow for the mid week period. A warm front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through our region on Thursday night with a cold front arriving from the northwest on Friday night. High pressure should move from eastern Ontario to Canada's Maritime Provinces over the weekend with low pressure developing off the southeast coast.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
12:30 pm update: no significant changes made. Updated temperatures and dewpoints to reflect current trends.

At the surface a largely stalled front will remain displaced to our west today while an area of low pressure develops to our southwest and moves from the Ohio Valley into Central Pennsylvania. At mid- levels the flow aloft will back more southwesterly ahead of a deepening h5 trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest. This configuration will result in an uneventful day weather-wise with cloud cover largely limited to cirrus (albeit, potentially thick at times) streaming in from the SW ahead of the next storm system. Light, but warm southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the developing low will keep temperatures mild, with highs largely in the upper 50s to lower 60s (e.g. about 5 degrees above normal).

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Tuesday
The surface low will track northeastward tonight, passing just west of the area in the predawn hours Tuesday morning. As the low progresses the attendant and fairly robust cold front will approach the area from the west. Guidance currently has the cold front entering far western portions of the forecast area early Tuesday morning, reaching the I-95 corridor around or just after sunrise, and then clearing the coast by mid-morning.

The front is expected to be frontogenetic as it passes the area (at least in the 925-850 layer) with instability above the level of enhanced positive frontogenesis (as deduced from Saturated Geostrophic Potential Vorticity). Just behind the front enhanced UL Divergence associated with an approaching 150kt jet will nose into the area Tuesday morning, and potentially keep the precipitation going for a few hours after the front passes. Deep layer moisture will not be overly impressive, but PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do approach an inch or so just ahead of the boundary. Given these factors, guidance is in fairly good agreement that total liquid amounts with this system will generally be in the 0.1-0.25 inch range, with some locally higher spots possible (the Poconos and Delmarva being the best candidates for > 0.25 inch totals).

Precipitation will begin as rain everywhere but will likely transition to a rain-snow mix or potentially (mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor) all snow later in the event as the column cools. There is a small chance that some areas (particularly the Poconos and NW NJ) see a brief period of freezing rain or sleet between the rain-snow transition, but this would likely be quite brief as the surface cooling should not greatly outpace the cooling aloft. Although, do think much of the area will at least see some flakes on the tail end of the event, the initially warm temperatures combined with postfrontal drying should largely prevent accumulations south of approximately the I-78 corridor. Even in areas that do see some accumulating snow, the limited moisture associated with the system coupled with the initially low snow ratios should hold totals to less than an inch. The exception could be the higher terrain of the Poconos and NW NJ where amounts could be around an inch. Precipitation will taper off from W-E Tuesday, and expect the area will be largely dry by mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Strong cold advection will occur immediately behind the front and, therefore, Tuesday's high temperatures are both rather uncertain (particularly for areas around the I-95 corridor and points east), and also not particularly meaningful as these highs will occur early in the morning and therefore not be representative of temperatures most of the day. Think that by mid afternoon temps will have largely settled into the mid to upper 30s over most of the region (apart from the Poconos and NW NJ).

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
High pressure is forecast to be located in the middle Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday evening. The high will move eastward and its center should reach our region on Wednesday evening. It will be the coldest air mass to influence our weather, so far this season.

The pressure gradient between the departing low to our northeast and the approaching high should result in windy conditions from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the low moves farther away from us on Wednesday afternoon, and as the high drifts closer, wind speeds are expected to begin diminishing slowly.

Low temperatures on Tuesday night are expected to favor the teens and lower 20s. Wind chill values early on Wednesday morning are anticipated to fall a bit below zero in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey and they should range from 5 to 15 in much of the rest of our region. High temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 20s on the Pocono Plateau to the middle 30s in northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey on Wednesday.

The high is expected to move to the waters off Nova Scotia on Thursday, putting our region in a return southerly flow at that time. Clouds should be on the increase as a warm front approaches from the west. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon are forecast to be noticeably warmer than those on Wednesday afternoon. Highs should range from the middle and upper 30s in the north to the middle and upper 40s in the south.

The warm front is forecast to pass through our region on Thursday night. We are expecting a mostly cloudy sky with a very limited chance for precipitation, mainly on the coastal plain.

Conditions on Friday are anticipated to be even milder than those on Thursday with highs mostly in the 40s and lower 50s.

A cold front is expected to arrive from the northwest on Friday night with limited moisture associated with it.

High pressure is forecast to build from the Great Lakes to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces over the weekend with low pressure developing off the southeast coast. The expected weather pattern should result in a prolonged northeasterly surface flow in our region. Some of the model guidance is suggesting that the northwestern edge of the clouds and precipitation shield associated with the low will affect our region. The forecast temperature profiles indicated that the precipitation type would strongly favor rain.

Marine
Today... Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria during the daytime hours, with SW wind gusts around 15-20kts and seas generally 2-3 ft.

Tonight/Tuesday... SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to begin this evening with SW winds gusting 25-30 kts and seas building to around 5 ft by Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the NW late Tuesday morning with gusts over 30 kts possible Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK... Tuesday night...A Gale Watch is in effect for northwest wind gusts around 35 knots.

Wednesday...A northwest wind is expected to gust around 25 to 30 knots.

Wednesday night through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Climate
Here are the record low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday:

Climate Site Nov 13 Allentown 18 in 1996 Atlantic City 22 in 2001, 1996, and 1995 Atl. City Marina 24 in 1920 Georgetown 21 in 1986 Mount Pocono 12 in 1911 Philadelphia 24 in 1986 Reading 21 in 1976 Trenton 23 in 1920, 1911 Wilmington 18 in 1911

Climate Site Nov 14 Allentown 17 in 1986 Atlantic City 15 in 1986 Atl. City Marina 23 in 1874 Georgetown 22 in 1986, 1950 Mount Pocono 5 in 1905 Philadelphia 19 in 1986 Reading 16 in 1986 Trenton 20 in 1905 Wilmington 20 in 1986, 1911

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.