Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Wed...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1011pm EST Monday Jan 20 2020
High pressure will continue to build into the region through Wednesday before gradually weakening through late week. Low pressure will arrive on Saturday bringing the next round of precipitation to the area. This system will depart the area on Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Winds will continue to fall through the rest of the overnight hours and will eventually decouple north of a boundary. Both the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and NAMNest only drag the boundary to TTN before starting to slowly lift back north. Thus, there's really high bust potential in the temperature forecast because of the winds go calm over the Pine Barrens, expect rapid radiational cooling and temps to fall into the single digits. I tend to think that solution is the one that will play out so I've kept forecast lows on the cold side of the coldest guidance. It should be a chilly one this evening.
Previous discussion...A cold afternoon in progress despite plenty of sunshine. An upper- level trough will continue to shift east of New England into this evening. Another upper-level trough with a impressive mid level low center in the mid- Mississippi Valley this afternoon will continue to dive southeastward through tonight. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge entering the western Plains this afternoon and tonight will gradually push strong surface high pressure eastward. We therefore remain within a northerly flow regime on the east side of the surface high.
While the center of the surface high is well to our west through tonight, a tightened pressure gradient remains across our region. This along with vertical mixing is resulting in a gusty wind this afternoon, adding a wind chill factor. Despite this setup, it looks like many areas will at least partially decouple tonight. This should occur more and sooner in the sheltered areas (i.e. NJ Pine Barrens). While it will be a very cold night (widespread teens and some single digits), the temperature trend will depend on the winds. We weighted the low temperatures much closer to the colder guidance, especially in the typically colder locales, as the winds diminish along with a lack of clouds. The low-level air mass is very dry which also assist in getting temperatures colder. There could be some mainly high level clouds in parts of the area toward daybreak especially in the Pocono region, however this should not have any significant impacts on the temperatures.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
An upper-level trough will dominate the East through Tuesday, with this being comprised of two troughs. One of which amplifies once again across New England and the second one slides across the southeast states. These will have little affect on our sensible weather as strong high pressure still centered well to our west slides closer but does extend into our area. While the pressure gradient is forecast to be still present, the overall mixing and flow is weaker and therefore less wind is expected compared to today (Monday).
It will be another cold day, with just slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures compared to this afternoon (Monday). We used mostly a MOS blend with continuity for the high temperatures. Lots of sunshine expected, although some mainly high level clouds may occur at times in some areas given the presence of the aformentioned troughs aloft north and south of us.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
A relatively benign pattern is in store synoptically through the latter half of the week with the next system forecast to impact the area over the weekend. Upper troughing will pass to our south and east through mid-week so north to northwesterly flow will prevail aloft leaving high pressure in place at the surface and weak low to mid-level flow. As the high pressure drifts slowly eastward and more centered across the coast, it will weaken allowing for a general warming trend through the end of the week as the airmass modifies. The period will start with temperatures within a few degrees of normal then will be 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday into Saturday. Expect mainly clear but hazy skies through this period. Would not be surprised if we see a few nights/mornings with areas of fog or freezing fog and heavy frost given the stagnant airmass and clear skies, espousal Wednesday night and Thursday night.
By midday Friday, a closed upper low will be making its way across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley then eventually toward the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. At the surface, a 2 part low pressure system will be approaching the region from the south and west. The initial low across the Ohio Valley will weaken then the secondary low lifting north from the Gulf and across the Carolinas will become dominant and intensify as it moves up the coast toward the Mid-Atlantic. This low is forecast to briefly stall out over our forecast area Saturday night then move slowly offshore on Sunday.
Clouds will be increasing from the west from this system throughout the day Friday. Precipitation is then forecast to move in generally from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning, perhaps even before daybreak. Guidance still differs on the timing and strength/coverage of this system with the GFS being the fastest as of the 12Z suite. Can't rule out a brief period of snow/sleet across the entire area at precipitation onset (timing dependent), but this looks largely like a rain event for the I-95 corridor and south/east. The surface low will be tracking directly over the area and warm air advection will be strong aloft and near the surface. Farther north, a more prolonged period of wintry precipitation is probable, potentially leading to some travel impacts on Saturday into early Sunday. However, it currently appears that most of the area (especially south of the Lehigh Valley and NW NJ) will see a transition over to all rain Saturday evening and overnight as the low pressure center is basically right over the forecast area. The low will be exiting the area on Sunday and precipitation chances will diminish generally from west to east through the day.
A cold northwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday, however it will also be weakening some. Some downward trend in the surface winds are noted this afternoon, however gusts to about 25 knots will continue at least into this evening. Given trends, opted to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay. We will continue the advisory for the NJ/DE Atlantic coastal waters (through midnight) for now, although this may be able to be cancelled early (seas are already down to 5 feet). For Tuesday, the conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria within a continued north- northwest flow regime.
Outlook... Tuesday night through Thursday night...Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. Fair weather with winds northerly around 5-10 kts.
Friday through Friday night...Initially fair weather and northerly winds around 5 kts then building seas with winds becoming easterly and increasing overnight to 15-20 kts. Conditions nearing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by daybreak Saturday.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.