Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain Early This Evening.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming E After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft Early In The Evening, Then 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Ne With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 7 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339pm EST Tuesday Nov 12 2019
Arctic high pressure will build into the region through Wednesday, bringing an unseasonably cold air mass. The area of high pressure will shift offshore on Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday night and into Saturday. High pressure should then build back in later Saturday and Sunday. An ocean storm is likely to develop off the Southeast coast over the weekend, but is currently expected to remain mainly to the southeast of the mid-Atlantic.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
An interesting rain/snow event winding down across the region with radars showing the steady echos moving E across Delmarva and extreme S NJ. The colder air charged across the region earlier, a bit faster than modeled. This combined with a subtle upper S/W created a bit more snow across southern NJ and DE than earlier expected. A few hours of snow with 3/4 to 2SM VSBYS were reported in many areas, but the accums were only a Trace. This is first snow of the season for many parts of the region including the Philly metro areas (as measured at PHL) and the Mount Holly, NJ NWS.
Going into tonight, high pressure well to the west will begin to push into the area with a decrease in clouds expected. Winds will remain gusty overnight and temperatures will remain well below normal. Lows will reach around 10 across the far north and teens most other areas. Lows for Delmarva and coastal waters the lows will be closer to 20 degrees. Wind chills will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the air temps lows, so teens and single digits fairly common.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through 6pm Wednesday
High pressure across WV early will move towards NJ during the day. Fair weather with mostly sunny skies are expected. Some Ci/Cs clouds will spill in from the NW during the afternoon. Cold. Morning lows in the teens and low 20s will rebound back to the low/mid 30s in most areas. The N/W most areas may remain in the 20s however. Winds will be from the NW at mostly around 10 mph, but little gusty into the afternoon.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Summary...Very cold air lingers into Thursday morning. The air mass moderates some Thursday and especially Friday before cooling takes place Saturday. Milder air looks to arrive for early next week, however a storm system looks to be lurking offshore.
Synoptic Overview...A strong upper-level trough lifts out of the East Wednesday with the mid level flow turning more zonal, then a short wave trough from the Midwest to the central Mississippi Valley pivots eastward Wednesday night and Thursday. This feature slides across the East later Friday as a closed low amplifies and shifts southward some across eastern Canada. The latter shifts across the Northeast into Saturday with a ridge building across portions of the western Atlantic, however a cutoff low looks to develop off the southeast coast over the weekend and into early next week. A surface low tied to this is forecast to slowly track northeastward into early next week.
For Wednesday night through Friday...Another very cold night is likely Wednesday night thanks to clear skies and light winds even as the air mass starts to slowly moderate. Some additional record lows are possible. Some warming Thursday afternoon as high pressure shifts off to the east and flow turns southerly. A short wave trough is forecast to slide eastward from the Great Lakes region Thursday to New England Thursday night, with a clipper system at the surface tagging along with it. This will toss a weak cold front across our area Friday night. The main warm air advection and therefore lift is focused well to our north therefore no precipitation is expected with it as of now. However, energy diving across the southern states Thursday is forecast to close off as is nears the southeast coast. This will induce surface low pressure development along a lingering baroclinic zone. Some energy and forcing ahead of this feature may try and produce some light precipitation late Thursday night into Friday across southeastern New Jersey and portions of Delmarva. This is less certain given weaker forcing this far north, with the main focus farther south closer to the closed low and developing surface low. For now, kept some low Probability of Precipitation in for portions of the aforementioned area. The thermal profiles should be warming enough for mainly rain, although this may have to battle some lingering mid to low level dry air before dew points recover more. Given enough warm air advection, most places should warm into the lower 50s Friday afternoon despite some increase in cloud cover.
For Saturday through Monday...The evolution of northern and southern stream energy becomes a bit more uncertain, however overall strong high pressure slides by to our north while a closed low near the southeast coast Saturday drives surface low development. The forecast challenge is the timing and also the question of how much protection does our area get from the surface high as it gradually departs. Our region may get brushed by the storm as it tracks northeastward across the western Atlantic, however a gusty northeasterly wind (especially closer to the coast) looks certain given the pressure gradient forecast. We will continue with some slight chance to low chance Probability of Precipitation given the uncertainty especially later Sunday through Monday. The airmass should moderate during the weekend and early next week, however this could be tempered some by the strengthening onshore flow, if more precipitation ends up occurring and if the system is even slower in moving further away.
We will continue with the Gale warning on the waters into the overnight period with a good shot of cold air arriving and decent mixing over the relatively warmer waters. Gusts between 35 and 40 knots are expected. The gusts will begin to diminish late, but perhaps a bit after the original Gale was set to expire, so I added a few hours onto the end. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is expected after the Gale comes down. Except for some showers across the southern waters early, fair weather expected overnight. Cold.
Arctic air pours across the entire area by later today and sticks around into Thursday. This may lead to some record lows.
Here are the record low temperatures for Wednesday And Thursday
Climate Site Nov 13 ------------ ------ Allentown 18 in 1996 Atlantic City 22 in 2001, 1996, and 1995 Atl. City Marina 24 in 1920 Georgetown 21 in 1986 Mount Pocono 12 in 1911 Philadelphia 24 in 1986 Reading 21 in 1976 Trenton 23 in 1920, 1911 Wilmington 18 in 1911
Climate Site Nov 14 ------------ ------ Allentown 17 in 1986 Atlantic City 15 in 1986 Atl. City Marina 23 in 1874 Georgetown 22 in 1986, 1950 Mount Pocono 5 in 1905 Philadelphia 19 in 1986 Reading 16 in 1986 Trenton 20 in 1905 Wilmington 20 in 1986, 1911
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Gale Warning until 11am EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.