Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se Around 5 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 13 Seconds.|
|Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 13 Seconds.|
|Fri...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog Until Late Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early In The Morning. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Patchy Drizzle After Midnight. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 13 Seconds.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Patchy Drizzle In The Morning. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
905am EDT Thu Oct 22 2020
High pressure will remain in place to our northeast through Friday. Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the region on Saturday, which will stall offshore. High pressure builds in to our north for Sunday, while the offshore cold front lifts back north as a warm front by Monday. A stronger cold front may move through by the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 9 AM, areas of fog persist however taking a look at multiple web cams from around the region indicate that the most dense of the fog is more localized. The visible satellite imagery indicates some thinning starting to take place in the stratus over portions of eastern Pennsylvania. The visibilities have improved quite a bit in the Poconos, portions of northwest NJ and southern Delaware. Given these trends, opted to allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 9 AM.
Otherwise, a surface ridge extended southwestward from the waters off Nova Scotia to the southeastern states early this morning. The feature is expected to remain more or less in place today. A frontal boundary is forecast to stay to the north of our region. The pattern will continue to result in a light east to south flow.
The low clouds and fog are anticipated to lift gradually during the mid to late morning, with partly sunny conditions likely for this afternoon.
Above normal temperatures are expected with highs mostly in the 70s. Readings will be generally around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the 22nd of October.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Friday
Little change in the surface pattern is expected for tonight. As a result, we are forecasting another round of low clouds and areas of fog in our region.
The wind is anticipated to be light and variable. Temperatures will likely be mild with lows mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Overview... Eastern US ridging remains prevalent through most of the long term period. While it's strength will waver at times as a frontal system comes into play over the weekend, the generally positive height anomalies and a frequent southerly component to the surface flow will keep temperatures mainly near or above average heading into the weekend and the early part of next week. By the middle of next week, a deeper and more robust trough coming out of Canada may attempt to deliver a more significant cold shot, but that remains uncertain at this range. Fairly low impact sensible weather is expected through the period. Any rainfall, and there won't be much, looks to be light and scattered through early next week, though the chances for more widespread rain could increase beyond then. However, while rainfall totals will be light, it may not be an especially nice stretch of days overall, with several opportunities for low clouds, fog, and/or light showers and drizzle. Marine users are also cautioned that elevated seas are likely through the weekend in association with Hurricane Epsilon well offshore. See the Marine section for more.
Dailies... Friday-Friday night... Low pressure tracks northeast out of the Great Lakes and into Ontario on Friday. A trailing cold front will move in our direction but won't make it to us on Friday. Thus, the stagnant pattern from prior days continues with light southeast flow likely yielding another round of morning fog and low clouds giving way to another warmer than average day. May take much of the morning or even into the afternoon for low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle to erode, but eventually some breaks of Sunday are likely. Most areas should again see highs near 70 with cloud cover preventing higher values. Overnight, the front remains to our west, and fog or stratus will likely settle in yet again.
Saturday-Saturday night... Lingering fog and low clouds are possible again Saturday morning. The cold front to our west will make it to our region by Saturday afternoon or evening. As its parent low tracks far north of us through Canada, frontal forcing will be quite weak by the time it arrives, and little to no instability is expected to exist ahead of the front. As a result, rainfall prospects on Saturday are limited, with little more than an isolated shower possible. Ahead of the front, another warmer than average day with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. A considerably cooler night than the previous several is expected as the front settles offshore, with many areas falling back into the 40s for lows.
Sunday-Sunday night... The cold front will likely stall just offshore of the region by Sunday, while surface high pressure attempts to build in to the north. Steady east-northeasterly surface flow develops on Sunday, and a weak mid-level disturbance also moves through. This will likely mean a lot of clouds around and possibly some scattered light showers or drizzle on Sunday. So despite the passage of the front and nearby high pressure, could be a rather dreary day as highs struggle to crack 60 and in most places fail to. On Sunday night, the nearby front will then begin to lift back north over the region as a warm front with southerly flow redeveloping. Scattered showers are possible overnight as this happens.
Monday onward... An elongated but sharp frontal zone will set up to our west early next week. The Eastern US ridge rebuilds in strength after relaxing a bit over the weekend, at the same time a strong trough begins to push eastward out of Canada and the northern Plains. Much colder air will sit west of the frontal zone over the central US, while we at least initially remain in the unseasonably warm air to the east of it. The warm front lifting north may not have cleared the region by Monday morning. As a result, cloudiness and a chance of showers are in the forecast especially to the north. Agreement in model guidance worsens by Tuesday due to differences in timing of the passage of the approaching cold front. The spread in model outcomes ranges from a frontal passage as early as Tuesday to as late as Thursday. Multiple waves of low pressure will likely track along the front through midweek, and with the front drawing closer and eventually moving through, additional opportunities for unsettled weather will exist. It is possible a round or two of steadier rain could affect the region towards midweek before the front eventually makes it offshore later next week. Above average temperatures in the warm sector for Monday and likely Tuesday. Once the front moves through, temperatures will trend downwards later in the week.
A variable wind less than 10 knots this morning is forecast to settle into the southeast and east for this afternoon and tonight.
Swells from distant Hurricane Epsilon will continue to build along our coast. As a result, we will keep the Small Craft Advisory in effect for our ocean waters. It begins at 11 o'clock this morning.
Outlook... Friday - Sunday
ght... SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected for most or all of this period due to elevated seas associated with Hurricane Epsilon well offshore. Seas will run mainly 5 to 7 ft, gradually diminishing by later Sunday and Sunday night. Several wind shifts through the period with gusts mainly 20 kt or less.
Monday-Monday night... Conditions should subside to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels with seas continuing to slowly diminish and southerly winds gusting 20 kt or less.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.