Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Sw Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds. Light Swells. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With Isolated Tstms After Midnight.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. S Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. S Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. S Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Sw Swell Around 2 Ft At 5 Seconds, Becoming Se At 7 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. N Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 3 Seconds In The Evening.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front will pass through the area tonight and bring showers and thunderstorms with it. High pressure is expected to nose into the region for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front is anticipated to arrive on Wednesday, followed by a return of high pressure for the end of the week.
Near Term - Through Monday
The period begins with ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the I95 corridor. The precipitation will continue to the east. Isolated strong gusts are possible within the bowing segments. The clouds have cleared across the coastal plain just recently allowing for modest destabilization. But the process has been slow. Although things can change, the latest from Storm Prediction Center suggests a watch is not anticipated. That said, a few warnings are still possible.
Instead of having a single consolidated event this afternoon and evening, the hi-res HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) has been hinting at an episodic event since this morning with two distinct rounds of convection. And when one looks at radar, this appears to be the case. After round one exits over the next few hours, the showers and thunderstorms now over north-central and northwest PA, are forecast to move through the region between 23z and 05z. While synoptic forcing and shear will be in place, whatever instability we have should be waning. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph.
On Monday, a mid-level low will remain over the Great Lakes. With weak short waves pivoting around the feature, a slight chance of showers will exist mainly along and to the north of the Interstate 78 Corridor. Afternoon temperatures will climb into mid 60s well north and west and into the 70s most everywhere else.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday
The upper trough and closed low will remain over the northeast through the short term period. Rounds of shortwaves will traverse the base of the trough while we're placed between surface high pressure off to our west with the occluded low and surface front to our north and east respectively. Generally westerly to northwesterly flow will dominate through the period. Some mid-level clouds are possible in the northwesterly flow Monday night, but as dry advection in the mid-levels ensues, the skies should turn clearer Tuesday morning. Monday night into the first half of Tuesday should remain dry in the wake of the surface front passage. The surface high looks to nose into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface low pulls off to the northeast. A few showers are possible in locations the Poconos where orographic forcing may be enough in combination with shortwave support. Temperatures will begin an overall slight decreasing trend each day beginning on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be will be near or just above 70 with lows in the upper 40s to near 50.
Wednesday will be a similar day to Tuesday as the upper trough still remains overhead. The surface high will continue to try to work its way closer to the area all while a weak surface front slides through in the afternoon. Overall precipitation coverage again looks to be limited with not much moisture in place. The front does not look to usher in a drastically different airmass behind it; highs Wednesday will be down a few ticks from Tuesday in the mid-upper 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
A weak cold front will complete its passage late Wednesday afternoon bringing a few showers along with it and leave northwesterly flow in its wake. This will introduce another shot of cooler air behind it, as well as mid-level cloud cover and some lake effect showers that may reach into our far northwestern zones. Lows Wednesday night will be a few degrees below normal.
The upper trough axis finally departs the region sometime Thursday as well, and flow then veers to an easterly component as surface high pressure takes hold in the wake of the departing upper trough and lingering occluded surface low. The surface high will quickly shut down any lake effect precipitation and the day should be dry. Highs Thursday will be a few degrees below normal in the mid-upper 60s, with locations in the Poconos likely not reaching 60. Lows will also be a few degrees below normal.
Beyond Thursday, the forecast becomes quite uncertain owing to the wide array of solutions from current Tropical Storm Ian. Friday will likely remain dry as the surface high still maintains its grasp. It is possible that we see some precipitation from the system at some point next weekend, though long term guidance and ensembles still exhibit a lot of spread. For this reason, going to keep the area dry for now through Friday, and introduce chance Probability of Precipitation beginning on Saturday. Temperatures into the weekend will still hold slightly below normal.
The Rest of Today and Tonight...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. S to SW winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms moving offshore late this afternoon and evening may result in locally stronger winds and higher seas. Fair weather is expected overnight.
Monday... W to SW winds 15 to 20 kts. Seas 4 to 5 feet into the afternoon diminishing to 3 to 4 ft.
Outlook... Tuesday and Wednesday... No marine headlines expected. Fair weather. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots on Tuesday, turning westerly on Wednesday. Seas 3-4 feet.
Rip Currents... A HIGH risk of rip currents continues today amid the large breaking waves and long period swells continuing. Entering the surf will be strongly discouraged.
For Monday, a shorter period swell and south-southwest wind should result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.