Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 9 Seconds. Scattered Showers And Tstms Late This Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds. Widespread Showers And Scattered Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sun...Nw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Ne 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 616am EDT Sat April 26 2025 Synopsis As low pressure tracks to our north today, a cold front will cross our region this afternoon into this evening. Low pressure may then meander near coastal New England Sunday as high pressure slowly approaches our area from the west. The high slides across our area during Monday before shifting to our south and east. A warm front moves through later Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure slides by to our north Thursday, then a cold front arrives during Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight Key message: Rounds of showers and storms, with a focus on a line of storms just ahead of the cold front this afternoon/evening that could bring lightning and gusty winds. Details: Before we get to the showers, patchy fog, in some places almost dense fog, has developed over portions of the Poconos and NW NJ. Given we are already past sunrise, not confident it will persist very long, so will hold off on a dense fog advisory for now. Showers are expected to continue (off and on) through mid day, though some models depict a dry slot working into portions of the coastal plains, so those areas may have a longer lull. The main focus in this period will be the second round of showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of the cold front this afternoon. With this round, expecting a line of showers and storms to progress quickly from west to east through the afternoon and evening (approximately 1pm to 8 PM). There is a conditional threat (5%) that there will be gusty winds with this second round of storms, especially for areas along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Model soundings depict a brief window of a long and skinny CAPE profile. While the CAPE values will be limited, it could be enough to mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. Additionally, a layer of dry air between 700 and 500 mb could lead to some dry air entrainment and potential for downbursts. Model DCAPE values in many areas are higher than the CAPE values. In the wake of the cold front, showers will clear out quickly, and winds will increase out of the northwest. Expect to stay relatively well mixed overnight, but with strong cold air advection in the wake of the cold front, should still be able to drop down into the 30s and 40s for most of the area. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Much cooler with strong winds Sunday, then temperatures rebound Monday with less wind. A closed low is forecast to pivot across the Northeast Sunday with surface low pressure possibly meandering near coastal New England for a time. As this occurs, high pressure will be building into the upper Ohio Valley. This will place our area within cyclonic flow and a tight pressure gradient. Given cold air advection and a deeper mixing layer during the day, breezy to windy conditions are expected during Sunday. Model forecast soundings via BUFKIT show steepening of the low-level lapse rates with 30 to nearly 40 knots of wind within the mixing layer. Northwest surface winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph look to occur, which will then start to diminish Sunday evening as the mixing heigheights lower and we start loosing the influence of the cyclonic flow. Went ahead and increased the wind and wind gusts quite a bit for the daytime hours of Sunday. A much drier air mass will also be advecting in during Sunday with dew points falling through the 30s. Due to the colder air aloft there should be a decent amount of stratocumulus development for a time for much of the area, which is supported by the model forecast soundings. The sky will clear Sunday night and temperatures drop into the 40s across the region. As we go through Monday, some mid level ridging arrives from the west and this will allow surface high pressure to slide over our area although the center of the high looks to become more focused to our south with time. This will result in less wind and with heigheights on the rise it will be a warmer afternoon. High temperatures look to be about 10 degrees higher than Sunday. Northwest winds will be less and as the flow turns even lighter a sea/bay breeze should develop during the course of the afternoon. Temperatures Monday night look to drop back into the mid/upper 40s to some low 50s. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Summary...Mild/warm temperatures overall along with some chances for showers. Synoptic Overview...A mid level ridge is forecast to crest across our area Tuesday, then an upper-level trough slides across the Northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some brief ridging aloft moves through Thursday followed by an upper-level trough during Friday. At the surface, high pressure shifts to our south and east Tuesday then a cold front arrives Wednesday. High pressure slides by to our north Thursday, then a cold front arrives during Friday. For Tuesday and Wednesday...As a mid level ridge axis shifts south and east of our area, surface high pressure will as well. A warm front looks to lift across our area later Tuesday. An upper-level trough shifts east into the Northeast from the Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, with a cold front crossing our area during Wednesday. This may be a quick moving system with not much time for deeper moisture return and therefore showers may be limited with it. Some showers look to be possible Tuesday with the warm front, then the cold front itself looks to be speeding up some and may cross most if not all of the area during the first part of Wednesday. It may come through mainly dry. A south to southwest breeze should increase during Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens some ahead of the advancing cold front, then a west to northwest breeze occurs Wednesday in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures Tuesday should top out around 80 degrees for much of the area, then some cooling starts to take place during Wednesday along with much drier air advecting in. For Thursday And Friday Surface high pressure is forecast to be sliding by to our north Thursday although still extending across our area. As the flow veers from southeast to south and southwest though, warm air advection gets underway especially as a warm front approaches. The increasing isentropic lift in advance of the warm front and ahead of an approaching upper-level trough may result in some showers later Thursday and Thursday night. Some elevated instability cannot be ruled out, however the chance for some thunder is low confidence as of now. The aforementioned upper-level trough drives surface low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity Friday, and this pulls a cold front across our area later Friday. Increasing forcing for ascent tied to this incoming upper- level trough and cold front should result in an increase in showers for a time. Some thunder is possible, however this looks to be more tied to how far north the main warm sector gets and also how much instability can be achieved in advance of the cold front. High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s, and then on Friday the highs will depend on the northward placement of the main warm sector. Marine No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. breezy southerly and southwesterly winds will be possible through this afternoon, then a cold front will bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds late this afternoon into this evening. Northwesterly winds gusting near 30 kt are expected in the wake of the cold front continuing through the overnight hours. There is a small chance (less than 20%) that winds will gust as high as 35 kt, but confidence is too low to issue a gale warning at this time. Outlook... Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions, with northwest wind gusts to 30 knots. The conditions improve at night. Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Tuesday and Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Fire Weather Showers around the area into this evening. Overall, 0.20-0.40 inches of rain across most of the area, although 0.50-1.00 inches of rain possible for about the I-80 corridor. Some thunderstorms possible especially this afternoon and early this evening, which can result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Given this and higher relative humidity, there are no concerns for rapid fire spread today. For Sunday, northwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. In addition, relative humidity values are forecast to drop to about 30-35 percent near and especially south of I-78 (40 percent and higher north of I-78). How quickly the fuels dry out from the showers today will determine any rapid fire spread risk. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. |
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