Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog Early This Morning. Areas Of Fog Late This Morning. A Chance Of Drizzle This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less This Morning.|
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Late Evening And Overnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning.|
|Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest and south, and it is expected to reach northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey today. Low pressure is anticipated to develop in or near our region late today before moving off the coast tonight. A cold front is expected to follow from the west on Monday afternoon. Weak high pressure should influence our weather on Tuesday. Low pressure is forecast to pass off the North Carolina coast on Tuesday night with high pressure returning to our region for Wednesday through Friday. A cold front may approach from the west over the weekend.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 3 AM, a large area of low pressure centered near Iowa with a warm front extending E/SE from this feature off the coast of Virginia. Meanwhile, high pressure located east of New England with surface ridging extending SW into NW NJ and NE PA leading to a cool air damming set up with the area stuck in low clouds along with areas of drizzle and fog north of the front. In addition, the latest round of rain continues to push eastward through PA into northern NJ but is generally weakening as it does so. As a result, this should only bring light rain.
Heading through the predawn hours into Sunday morning, not too much change as the low will advance slowly towards the upper Great Lakes while gradually weakening and the warm front will only lift northward very slowly. It will likely still be stuck near southern Delmarva by early afternoon. As a result, low clouds along with areas of drizzle and fog will persist with some of this fog possibly being quite dense at times especially over Delmarva into southern NJ. Farther north, the fog should be less dense over NE PA into northern NJ but there will continue to be some periods of light rain moving through.
For this afternoon, forecast continues to be challenging but most guidance is converging on keeping the warm front over Delmarva as this will be where the triple point sets up by late day with an approaching occlusion extending north over PA and a cold front extending to the south and west. We will still have to watch for the potential for some convection forming to the west and moving eastward into the area by the latter part of the afternoon but the overall idea continues to trend towards this activity being fairly limited if it does occur as the best forcing will be located farther north and the shear will be very strong compared to the amount of instability. This may tend to shear developing updrafts apart. Still, can't rule out that some storms will get going and that these may remain surface based in the narrow warm sector over Delmarva into southern NJ. ML CAPEs still look to max out around 500-1000+ J/kg with deep layer shear of 60+ knots with this region continuing to remain in a marginal risk zone for severe storms from the SPC. Damaging winds would be the biggest threat. High temperature forecast continues to remain tricky due to the proximity of the front but no major changes were made with this update. Still expect highs stuck around 50 over NE PA into NW NJ with 70s over much of Delmarva where there may even be some sun by afternoon in the warm sector. SE PA and adjacent portions of southern NJ look to top out around 60 with clouds persisting through the day.
Short Term - Tonight
Any scattered showers/storms that develop described above may persist into the first part of the evening before moving out as the cold front and occlusion sweep offshore. A secondary low looks to develop at the triple point and be located SE of Cape Cod by Monday morning as the primary low weakens over Ontario. The remainder of the night should be mainly dry with variable cloud cover as the systems upper level low will be sitting over the lower Great Lakes with associated shortwave energy pivoting east around it. Expect lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
Monday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week, with afternoon temperatures well into the 60s, except in the elevated terrain up north. A cold front is expected to arrive from the west in the afternoon. While there may be a few showers in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, the boundary will have limited moisture associated with it. Temperatures are not expected to drop until Monday evening as the arrival of the cool air is anticipated to lag a few hours behind the front.
A mid level low passing from northeastern New York across New England may bring additional light rain showers on Monday night to the Pocono Region, and to parts of northern and central New Jersey.
Temperatures for the period from Tuesday through Saturday should be typical for early spring.
Weak surface high pressure is expected to influence our weather on Tuesday. The mid level low off the New England coast on Tuesday is forecast to retrograde back to the northwest on Tuesday night. A mid level trough approaching from the west is expected to pass over our region early on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface low is anticipated to pass across the southeastern states on Tuesday before moving off the North Carolina coast on Tuesday night.
The precipitation shield with the surface low may reach as far north as northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Scattered light rain showers are possible in parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey at that time in association with the mid level features. Temperatures may be cold enough in the elevated terrain up north from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning to result in a little snow.
High pressure is expected to build into our region from the west during the period from Wednesday through Saturday. It appears as though the guidance continues to trend slower with the arrival of our next cold front. It may not get to eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey until next Sunday or later.
Marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue to affect the northern ocean zones through most of Sunday but with the bigger issue likely being vsby restrictions that continue for the southern ocean zones and the DE Bay. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 7 AM. This fog may also have a tendency to creep farther north into this morning affecting the northern zones. The fog may continue to be an issue into this afternoon but should finally improve through tonight as a cold front moves through.
.Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...A northeast wind gusting to 25 to 30 knots is forecast.
Wednesday night...A north to northwest wind may gust around 25 knots.
Thursday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ450>452. Dense Fog Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ430-431- 453>455.