Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. N Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 5 Seconds.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Ne Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. E Swell Around 4 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. E Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 11 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. E Swell Around 3 Ft At 11 Seconds.|
|Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. E Swell Around 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Se Swell Around 3 Ft At 5 Seconds In The Evening. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1023pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
High pressure slides across our area tonight into Tuesday, then a cold front settles across our region Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday pulling a warm front north across our area. Another low develops along the front and tracks over our region later Friday into Saturday. High pressure should then build in Sunday and Monday.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
The main weather players are a deepening area of low pressure well offshore and a ridge of high pressure building in to our north over Ontario into Quebec.
Tonight, skies will clear with winds diminishing as the low continues to move away and high pressure builds down from the north with time. This should result in a fairly quick drop off in temperatures now that the strato-cu from this evening has largely cleared out, especially in the more sheltered areas where winds are faster to decouple. By later tonight expect lows ranging from the low to mid 20s in the colder spots (most of eastern PA and interior southern NJ) with upper 20s around the Philly metro region as well as over Delmarva and coastal NJ.
For Tuesday, the aformentioned high pressure system will retreat E/SE off the coast with a return flow from the south developing. This should result in temperatures recovering to seasonally mild values with highs mostly in the mid 40s to low 50s range.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday Night
Warmer air surges northward Wednesday and Thursday.
An upper-level trough sliding across eastern Canada and adjacent New England will glance our area. Low pressure well to our north will pull a cold front into our area later Tuesday into Wednesday morning before stalling nearby. There is enough moisture and forcing near the front for some showers, therefore will continue to include some slight chance to lower end chance PoPS for a while Tuesday night (although did expand these some). Some drier and cooler air will then settle into the area, with this most notable across the northern areas Tuesday night where the cold front clears faster.
The front should settle to our south and east Wednesday as high pressure builds in, which will result in drier air along with more sunshine developing. The air mass is not all that cold behind this front, therefore much of the area will warm into the upper 40s to low/mid 50s Wednesday afternoon. Clouds should then quickly increase at night ahead of our advancing warm front.
A strong upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the southern Plains Wednesday night, then lift north and eastward Thursday. This will drive surface low pressure into the Great Lakes region during Thursday. The earlier cold front will reverse course and lift back northward as a warm front Thursday. The forecast challenge is how quickly does the warm air advection induced wing of overrunning precipitation move in (how far east does it extends). Given an initial dry air push from the north, it may take some time to saturate the lowest levels. If surface temperatures are still at or just below freezing for the southern Poconos into northwestern New Jersey and precipitation starts to arrive, then a brief period of freezing rain can occur. The warm air advection is forecast to be rather robust, therefore any ice will go right over to plain rain as temperatures increase through the morning. In addition, if precipitation arrives faster and falls into an initially drier low- level air mass, then that could delay the warm-up at least some especially west of the fall line. Given the strength of the system tracking well to our west and surface high pressure centered to our east, we continue to warm things up during Thursday.
A dry slot looks to quickly overspread the area Thursday night with some lingering rain/showers, however the weak cold front looks to slow in our area to perhaps just make it off the coast. Additional energy across the southern states will then energize this front with a new low developing along it. The warmth on Thursday will be determined by the placement of the warm front and duration of steadier precipitation along and north of it. The coastal plain is forecast to get well into the 50s Thursday with even some low 60s across Delmarva.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
Summary...Very mild Friday then cooling for Saturday and Sunday, followed by warming again Monday. Some mainly rain Friday into Saturday.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level ridge east of our area Friday will give way to a sharpening upper-level trough from the west. This trough will settle across the East late Friday and especially Saturday, then shift to our east Sunday. Some ridging then arrives Sunday night through Monday which will support surface high pressure building to our south and east with time.
For Friday and Saturday...A sharpening upper-level trough from the west will drive another surface low along a front. This front should be draped in our vicinity Friday, however strong low-level warm air advection is forecast among strengthening southerly flow. While there could be a weak surface low also sliding right across our area later Friday as the primary low goes into the Great Lakes, plenty of warmth should be in place Friday. Plenty of moisture should also be advecting northward and with the incoming trough, forcing for ascent will increase for a time. Therefore, a period of rain should move across the area later Friday before tapering off to some showers into Saturday. A surge of rather mild air will accompany this system Friday, with most of the area getting into the 50s with even parts of the coastal plain getting into the low/mid 60s (perhaps a few spots approaching record highs). These warm temperatures should result in increasing southerly wind. If enough instability can be realized and overlap with better forcing from the west, then some thunder cannot be ruled out ahead of the cold front. On the north side, especially if cooling gets in faster across the Poconos, then some wintry precipitation could occur at the tailend. As of now, the chance of wintry precipitation even in the Poconos looks to be on the low side.
The trough axis looks to arrive later Saturday with cold air advection on the increase, although temperatures will fall back closer to average. A tight pressure gradient will be in place Saturday, therefore a gusty northwesterly wind is forecast.
For Sunday and Monday...As some ridging slides across the East Sunday, surface high pressure builds over our area but then shifts offshore into Monday. This will result in less wind overall and with a return flow quickly becoming established, the air mass will be warming on Monday.
Small Craft Advisory for Atlantic coastal waters from Cape May to Sandy Hook has been extended until 1am Tuesday.
NNW winds around 15 to 20 gusting 25 to 30 knots with seas 4 to 5 feet. The winds and seas diminish overnight with the Small Craft Advisory ending. Conditions should then remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Tuesday with generally light onshore flow in the morning becoming southerly through the day.
Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible for a time mainly Tuesday night, mostly due to seas on the Atlantic coastal waters.
Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may redevelop due to increasing southerly winds and building seas.
Friday and Saturday...There could be a lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions Friday night, then Advisory conditions probable on Saturday.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ450>453.