Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Nw With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds, Becoming Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
127am EST Thu Jan 21 2021
High pressure noses its way up the east coast overnight, before a clipper system moves to our north Thursday into Friday, bringing several surface boundaries across the area. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. High pressure tries to briefly affect the region Sunday night, before an area of low pressure moves along a frontal near the Mid Atlantic early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Surface ridging currently extends north into the area extending from high pressure centered near the Gulf of Mexico. This has led to skies that have generally been mainly clear along with diminishing winds resulting in good radiational cooling. Generally expect lows overnight to be in the low to mid 20s except some teens over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.
For Thursday, a low pressure system will gradually move east from northern Ontario into Quebec as it slowly weakens. This will push a warm front through the region during the morning which will also bring some mid level cloudiness around this time mainly over eastern PA into central and northern NJ. The day should otherwise feature a fair amount of sunshine with winds becoming breezy out of the W/SW with some gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Highs will be mainly in the 40s except 30s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.
For Thursday night, the aformentioned low will continue weakening over southern Quebec while a secondary low develops well off the coast south of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile the next surface high will be gradually moving south into to the north central CONUS. This will result in the winds staying up a bit compared to the current overnight so lows will be milder...generally in the upper 20s to low 30s under mainly
Short Term - Friday
Mid level ridging starts to break down Thursday as a low pressure system starts to push through southern Canada. This lifts a warm front through the region and will see temps warm into the mid 40s across the region. Thursday night remains quiet and seasonably with lows on the upper 20s to low 30s.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
For Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, low pressure will remain across eastern Canada, while high pressure moves of the Upper Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Great Lakes Saturday and toward the northeast Sunday. This will keep a steady northwesterly flow across the Mid Atlantic for the end of the week into the weekend. With this northwest flow, there will remain pretty strong winds above the surface, and these winds will likely mix down to the surface leading to gusty conditions; especially Friday into Saturday. Friday has the best chance for any snow showers or flurries for the first half of the extended forecast. Within the west to northwest flow, lapse rates will be moderately steep, while there will be some enhanced moisture across the area. Some enhanced lift from multiple short wave/vorticity impulses and approaching surface boundary could help lead to a slight chance of snow showers and flurries Friday into Friday night, mainly across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey. On Saturday and Sunday, there will be less moisture and the lapse rates are weak, so even though there will remain several short wave/vorticity impulses withing the northwest flow aloft, we do not expect any precipitation over the weekend. Near to slightly below normal temperatures can be expected over the weekend.
There still remains a significant amount of uncertainty with the early week storm next week. The ECMWF, Canadian, UKMET, and ICON all have a more northerly track of the system now, and are slower stronger as compared to the GFS which is faster and weakens the system as it moves across the area. The ECMWF, Canadian, UKMET, and ICON are indicating the potential for a decent snow fall accumulation to portions of the area, while the GFS does not have much measurable snow. However, due to the uncertainly of the track and timing of the system, especially given how the models have not had good consistency between runs, we will stay close to the NBM and previous forecast which is a chance of rain or snow for the Monday through Tuesday time period. But do note, if the track of non-GFS suite of models continues to hold true, there could be a good chance of snow early next week.
By Wednesday, this system will have moved out to sea, and high pressure will try to build out of southern Canada and across the Great Lakes region toward the Mid Atlantic. Fair weather is expected, with a return to near normal or slightly below normal temperatures for the middle of next week.
Winds will increase once again as we head into the day Thursday with SW winds generally 15 to 20 with with gusts up to 25 knots over the ocean waters. For this reason we have an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) starting at 14z for our ocean zones. Over the Delaware Bay, wind gusts should stay just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria.
Winds shift from SW to more of a westerly direction for Thursday night but otherwise not much change in conditions.
Wave heigheights over the ocean zones will increase from around 2 to 3 feet overnight to 3 to 5 feet for Thursday and Thursday night.
OUTLOOK... Friday-Saturday night...An extended period of Small Craft Advisory level winds expected.
Sunday-Monday...Conditions are expected to fall and remain below advisory levels.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 6am EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.