Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late. Areas Of Fog Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Sat...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Areas Of Fog Early In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw Late. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Sun...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
917pm EDT Fri August 7 2020
A weak stationary front will linger across the northern Mid- Atlantic before washing out Saturday. On Sunday a weak cold front will move through the region. High pressure will build into the area Sunday behind the front, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England around the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for all but eastern Maryland, central and southern Delaware, and southern New Jersey.
Although still producing heavy rain, the thunderstorms are losing the intensity they had earlier, which resulted in damage, and even an 89 mph wind gust at Upper Deerfield, NJ.
The strongest storms are in far southeast New Jersey and moving into southern Delmarva. Convection continues to diminish over the next several hours, and rain should continue to taper off through the night.
The next big concern tonight will be low stratus and fog development. Near calm surface winds and plentiful low level moisture combined with a saturated ground should yield areas of fog. The trough approaching from the west should create enough turbulence to prevent widespread dense fog, but cannot rule it out. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s to around 70.
Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Saturday Night
For Saturday, a progressive upper trough centered near the coast early in the day will move east with time with weak shortwave ridging approaching by late day. This should mean an overall drier day but there will still be significant low clouds and some fog around to start the day. And because low level winds will be quite light and there is so much moisture around, this could take some time to mix out. The upshot is that the morning should be mostly cloudy before some sun develops in the afternoon. However diurnal heating along with the continuing abundant moisture around could lead to some isolated to scattered afternoon storms developing. This won't be a washout though so it should be rain-free most of the time and many areas won't even see anything. It will still be fairly humid with lows mostly in the low to mid 80s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
Saturday night into Sunday the mid-level disturbance from Friday will be finally exiting New England with lower PWAT (Precipitable Water) air moving across the region. As the wave exits, brief subsidence will take shape across the area as surface high pressure centers over the Ohio Valley. The GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) does have a weak upper level disturbance traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but the system appears to far north, with to much dry air overhead to produce anything in the way of precipitation. Temperatures Sunday will likely be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as the dry air mass will allow temperatures to over perform.
Monday temperatures will remain warm as mid-level heigheights rise across the region and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remain around 1.40". Tuesday into Wednesday an upper level low will head east across central Canada with an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Overall, guidance has slowed down a bit from this time yesterday, with delaying the return of rain chances until Tuesday. An upper level wave will approach the area from the west Wednesday afternoon with significant uncertainty on the track and strength of the wave. Either way, the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wednesday into Thursday a cold front will approach New England with models showing a wide spread here. The GFS and CMC are slightly more amplified and slower with the upper level low over the Hudson Bay while the ECMWF is less amplified and more progressive. The GFS stalls the front across central/ southern NY, while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled across northern NY. For us this means an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.
Through tonight... Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A couple of wind shifts possible but easterly directions will be prevailing and speeds mainly 10 kt or less. Scattered tstms are possible for most of this period with locally higher winds and seas possible in any tstms.
Outlook... Saturday-Saturday night... Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds mainly NE at 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable overnight.
Monday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.
Tuesday into Wednesday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected with a slight chance of showers and storms.
Rip Currents... Light onshore flow Saturday through Sunday, along with 2-3 ft seas and a swell period of around 6-8 seconds will result in a low risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31 ) is off the air.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for NJZ021>025. DE...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-019- 020. MARINE...None.