Marine Weather Net

Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ452 Forecast Issued: 402 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds, Becoming S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight.
Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
444am EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure remains in place through Sunday bringing the heat. A strong cold front comes through on Sunday, moving offshore by Monday morning. High pressure settles in for the early part of the week before another cold front moves in for the middle of the week. High pressure returns for the end of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Patchy fog is possible early this morning mainly where some rain occurred last night.

For Saturday, the overall pattern/situation remains the same as the hot conditions continue. Did increase temperatures by a degree in some places, but overall the forecasted heat indicies remain relatively unchanged. Forecast soundings still show a well-mixed boundary layer for much of the day, allowing for some lower dew points to mix down and limiting the extent of how high our heat indicies will rise. Another limiting factor could be scattered clouds across northeast PA and northern NJ this afternoon resulting from a sagging stationary boundary to the north of the region. While the front won't be pushing through the region, this mild disturbance along with a sea breeze could be enough to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the forecast area in the afternoon. Cloud coverage along with rain-cooled air could provide a brief reprieve to the heat for some locations, though high res guidance is in disagreement with how extensive the storm coverage will be. Regardless, the takeaway here is there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north of the I-195 corridor this afternoon and the Heat Advisory remains in place.

After another hot afternoon, we can expect another uncomfortable night to follow. Temperatures will only cool off into the low to mid 70s with upper 70s across the urban corridor and Delmarva. Meanwhile, dew points will remain in the 70s as well, keeping it mild and muggy tonight. Lingering showers and storms into tonight may bring some brief relief temperature-wise, but won't do anything to reduce the humidity.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Oppressively hot and humid conditions are expected for Sunday, the hottest day of this stretch of heat.
Excessive Heat Warning...ere posted for the urban corridor and parts of the NJ Coastal Plain as heat indices of 105-110 are expected. This, combined with the nearly week long stretch of heat, are going to result in dangerous conditions outside for Sunday as the effects of heat stress on the body can be cumulative. Time outside should be limited and if you are out and about, drink plenty of water! For the rest of the area, the Excessive Heat Watch was replaced by a Heat Advisory, where triple digit heat indices are expected.

With such a hot and humid airmass in place, and an approaching cold front, there will be the chance for some severe weather. Lift will be aided with a shortwave and pre-frontal trough coming into a moist and unstable airmass. Deep layer shear of around 30-40 kt and moderate instability (around 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE) will support the development of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The limiting factor is the better shear will be located further north but still think there is sufficient shear to support some strong to severe thunderstorms. A SLIGHT (2/5) risk exists from the I-78 corridor on north with a MARGINAL (1/5) risk elsewhere. Not overly concerned with the flooding potential at the moment as storm motion should be steady , though with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) pushing 2 inches, any thunderstorms will produce heavy rain capable of dropping an inch or two of rain quickly.

The front comes through on Sunday Night/Monday morning, knocking down dew points good 15 degrees or so. It will feel much more comfortable on Monday with dew points back into the 50s and temperatures getting into the mid to upper 80s. Monday looks unsettled though as a series of shortwaves rotate around the base of the trough passing by to the north. This will result in a some scattered showers and thunderstorms, though the severe potential looks much lower compared to Sunday. Any showers/thunderstorms dissipate after sunset, and it should be a quiet night overall as high pressure moves in. Temperatures on Monday Night will get down

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Above normal temperatures will continue for the long-term, however most of next week with the exception of Wednesday will not be as oppressive as the heat this weekend. High temperatures through most of the extended look to be in the upper 80s/low 90s. The exception being Wednesday, as high pressure moves offshore resulting in a southerly flow and warm air advection. This will bring temperatures towards the low to mid 90s and heat index values near 100. Will likely need a Heat Advisory for some areas, but want to get through this weekend's heat before moving on to next week.

It will be a mostly dry week as high pressure and ridging aloft will be in control for Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A cold front will approach for Wednesday, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region for the Wednesdaypm to Thursday timeframe. Am a bit concerned on the hydro side of things as the front looks to be a little on the slower side, and we will have a very warm and moist airmass in place. With such a warm and moist airmass in place, cannot rule out some stronger thunderstorms as well. However, the area could use some rain. Will continue to monitor over the next few days, but this system is really the only impactful thing in the extended other than the Wednesday heat.

Marine
No headlines expected through Saturday night. S-SSW winds will get a bit gusty Saturday afternoon, increasing to 20 kts and remaining elevated into Saturday night, but still expected to remain below advisory criteria. Seas remain 3-4 feet, but begin to build overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning.

Outlook... Sunday through Sunday Night...A Small Craft Advisory was issued for all Atlantic coastal zones as seas will be around 4 to 7 feet with gusts in the 25-30 kt range out of the south/southwest. Showers and thunderstorms likely on the waters on Sunday Night.

Monday...Lingering 5 foot seas may result in the extension of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) into Monday. By late Monday, conditions go down to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.

Monday Night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents... Today...Winds around 10 to 15 MPH will be shore-parallel for the most part, though an onshore component exists for the southern New Jersey coast. With an 8 second period, a day removed from a full moon, the tide going out for most of the day, and 2 to 3 foot breaking waves, have gone with a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for today.

Sunday...Similar setup to today, though with stronger winds and higher waves. As a result, have upgraded to a HIGH risk for the development of rip currents for Cape May/Atlantic/Ocean County and a MODERATE risk for Monmouth and Sussex, DE beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Climate
Record high temperatures Saturday. Sites within the I-95 corridor and Lehigh Valley have a chance to break their record high temperature.

Location Record High (6/22)

Philadelphia, PA 100/1988 Allentown, PA 95/1941 Reading, PA 96/1921 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 99/1988 AC Airport, NJ 100/1988 AC Marina, NJ 92/1949 Wilmington, DE 98/1988 Georgetown, DE 97/2012

Record high temperatures Sunday.

Location Record High (6/23)

Philadelphia, PA 97/1888 Allentown, PA 95/1965 Reading, PA 96/1908 Mount Pocono, PA 90/1908 Trenton, NJ 97/1894 AC Airport, NJ 98/1988 AC Marina, NJ 91/1909 Wilmington, DE 100/1894 Georgetown, DE 100/1988

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...
Heat Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106.

Excessive Heat Warning...om 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for PAZ070- 071-102-104-106.
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for PAZ054-055-060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...
Heat Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for NJZ010-012-013-015>020- 027.

Excessive Heat Warning...om 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for NJZ010- 012-013-015>020-027.
Heat Advisory from 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for NJZ014-021>026.
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for NJZ001-007>009. DE...
Heat Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for DEZ001.

Excessive Heat Warning...om 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
Heat Advisory from 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004. MD...
Heat Advisory from 6am to 8pm EDT Sunday for MDZ012-015-019- 020.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 8am Sunday to 6am EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.