Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Light Chop On The Bay. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Light Chop On The Bay. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South Late In The Evening, Then Becoming West After Midnight, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. Light Chop On The Bay, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Early In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay, Increasing To Rough In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Saturday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Rough On The Bay. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast Late In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay, Diminishing To Light Chop Late In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Light Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Light Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Light Chop On The Bay, Diminishing To Smooth Late In The Evening, Then Increasing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...CORRECTED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1043pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Issued at 953pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 The shortwave and associated surface low pressure that brought high winds to Deep South Texas on Thursday continues northeastward into Upper Midwest this evening, leaving much lighter south-southeasterly winds in its wake. Friday morning lows remain above average, reaching into the 60s to near 70 degrees F near and along the coast in the Lower RGV. The next upstream mid/upper level trough deepens across the Desert Southwest tonight into Friday, developing an associated low pressure over the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, with a cold front attached, extending into northern/western Texas. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front, extending from the surface low of the previous system, is likely to begin to arrive into the Rio Grande Plains Friday evening, possibly to the US 281/I-69 corridor by the evening, shifting winds from southerly to northerly. Before then, Friday afternoon highs remain around 15-17 degrees F above average, potentially even warmer, with highs in the upper 80s across inland Deep South Texas, with near-record to record-breaking highs likely. Highs in the upper 70s along the coast are expected. As the back edge of the trough pushes east of the Rockies Friday afternoon and evening, a surface high pressure builds rapidly into the Southern Plains, pushing a secondary cold front into the CWA (County Warning Area) late Friday night into Saturday morning. As lift enhances across the region, probabilities of rain increase from north to south to a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain ahead of and along the front across the coastal counties and Middle Rio Grande Valley while the rest of the region sees a low (15-30%) chance. This solution aligns well with the latest runs of the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and RAP, which feature a line of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a low potential for isolated strong storms. Current expected rainfall amounts through Saturday morning across the coastal counties and Middle Rio Grande Valley range generally between 0.10-0.15 of an inch, though some locations could receive half an inch within heavier downpours in the Lower RGV. Further west, chances of rain increase to a low (15-30%) chance, lowest across the Rio Grande Plains. As the front passes through, overnight temperatures could drop from the upper 60s/lower 70s late Friday night to the 50s/60s by Saturday morning. Additionally, breezy and gusty northerly winds result from the tightened pressure gradient behind the front, peaking with winds of around 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, throughout the early morning to early afternoon hours on Saturday. As the winds enhance, funneling colder and drier air into the region, Probability of Precipitation decrease to a low (20-30%) chance of light rain by Saturday evening, dropping off on Sunday but continuing on Monday as coastal low tries to develop, with the best chances along the coast. Despite increased cloud coverage and chances of rain, there remains a chance for fire weather conditions as winds increase and relative humidity values drop into Saturday afternoon, which may result in a Fire Danger Statement on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Otherwise, continued coastal troughing leads to an additional low (15-30%) chance of rain along the coast Monday into Tuesday. Increased cloud coverage and persistent cold air advection are likely to result in below average temperatures, with daytime highs in the 60s Saturday through Tuesday and overnight lows in the 40s/50s Saturday night through possibly Thursday night of next week. Another front is possible next Wednesday or Thursday. Meanwhile, a Rip Current Statement continues through Friday afternoon as waves of 3-4 feet with 7 second periods lead to a continued high risk of rip currents. As the front barrels through inland Deep South Texas and the Lower Texas Gulf waters (0-60 nm out), strong northerly winds are expected to result in large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents by Saturday morning, with high risk of rip currents likely continuing through the remainder of this weekend. Marine Issued at 953pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate (3-4 feet) seas continue tonight into Friday night. Late Friday night, chances of rain from developing showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along an arriving strong cold front briefly increase chances of rain to a medium to likely (40-70%) chance of rain into Saturday morning. Strong northerly winds and possibly near-gale force gusts arrive behind the front, continuing from late Friday night through most of Saturday night, leading to rough (8-10 feet) seas along with a low (15-30%) chance of rain. A Small Craft Advisory is likely late Friday night or Saturday morning into or through Sunday. Winds and seas gradually improve throughout Sunday to gentle to moderate northeasterly winds by Monday night with moderate (3-4 feet) seas becoming easterly on Tuesday. A low (20-30%) chance of rain continues, decreasing possibly next Wednesday ahead of another potential cold front. NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. |
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