Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Rough On The Bay.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
413 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021
Strengthening southeast flow will commence today through Sunday as low pressure over the Southern Plains strengthens and tightens the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. Elevated winds and building seas continue into tonight and Sunday before a gradual relaxing of the gradient next week as a cold front moves slowly south through the State. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters out 60 nm through Sunday afternoon.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
241pm CDT Sat May 8 2021
Short Term - Tonight through Sunday Night
Hot, humid, and windy conditions are expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas through the short-term period, with no rainfall expected. Strongest winds will spread over the coastal counties beginning mid-morning tomorrow, continuing through much of the afternoon. Winds won't be quite as strong west of US-281/I-69C. However, west of this corridor will see the hottest temperatures tomorrow afternoon, with temperatures reaching the triple digits, hottest in Starr, Zapata, and Jim Hogg Counties.
Sturdy surface high pressure will settle over Florida and the extreme western Atlantic tonight as strong low pressure in the Plains continues to deepen. As such, a robust pressure gradient will remain in place across much of Southern Texas tonight and tomorrow. Additionally, a LLJ will strengthen to near 40 knots overnight, helping keep winds breezy and gusty. The combination of an abundance of cloud cover and breezy southerly winds will keep temperatures on the very mild side tonight, with lows generally in the mid-upper 70s.
Model guidance is in agreement that the strongest winds will peak by mid-late morning and through the early afternoon hours along and east of the I-60E corridor. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for coastal counties as sustained winds crank up between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts 35 to 40 mph possible. Winds will still be breezy to very breezy elsewhere through the day, but should stay below Wind Advisory criteria. In fact, winds will actually decrease in the afternoon out west as a pseudo-dryline/thermal trough tries to mix eastward from northeastern Mexico into Zapata/Starr Counties. This will cause slightly drier air to infiltrate the western portions of the CWFA, spiking temperatures above 100 degrees in the afternoon. Because of the drier air, heat indices are not expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Even still, with ambient temperatures expected to reach the 90s and triple digits in most inland spots, heat indices will peak between 100 and 110 across the entire area tomorrow afternoon. Winds will finally begin to decrease after sunset Sunday and another warm and humid night expected, with lows in the mid-upper 70s again Sunday night.
Long Term - Monday through Saturday
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will start off the long term with afternoon highs on Monday in the 100s out west, 90s east and 80s along the coast with temperatures just slightly cooler for Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the region on Tuesday along with a series of midlevel shortwaves that will increase rain chances through the remainder of the period. Convection is expected just northwest of the CWA on Tuesday and Tuesday evening with model guidance suggesting a possible MCS drifting into northwestern portions of the CWA by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, the aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas, stalling off the Texas coast Wednesday night which will keep an elevated chance of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast Wednesday through Saturday. The passing cold front on Wednesday will lower temperatures to below normal through the remainder of the forecast period.
.MARINE(Now through Sunday Night): The pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast will remain fairly tight, especially this evening through Sunday, as strong low pressure develops in the Plains. Strong southeast winds will persist over the Laguna Madre this afternoon and evening and then over the Gulf waters by this evening and continue through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are in place for all of the lower Texas coastal waters through at least Sunday afternoon due to the adverse winds and seas. Marine conditions will slowly become more and more favorable beginning late Sunday night, but operators of small craft will still need to exercise caution.
(Monday through Thursday): A tight pressure gradient will continue to create moderate to strong southerly flow along the lower Texas coast on Monday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions prevailing into Monday night across the Gulf waters. Tuesday, the pressure gradient slackens ahead of a cold front approaching Deep South Texas. This front will stall off the Texas coast Wednesday night bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters Tuesday night through Thursday. SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) are possible again on Thursday with increased winds and elevated seas.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 155.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 1pm CDT Sunday for GMZ150-170-175.