Marine Weather Net

Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ132 Forecast Issued: 929 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Today...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots This Morning Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots This Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay This Morning Becoming A Moderate Chop.
Tonight...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest Late In The Evening, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Becoming Light Chop Late In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East After Midnight, Then Becoming North Early In The Morning. Light Chop On The Bay Becoming Smooth After Midnight, Then Becoming Light Chop Early In The Morning.
Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Light Chop On The Bay.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots Early In The Morning. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Becoming Light Chop Early In The Morning.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Becoming Choppy In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527am CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Long Term
(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 236am CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Warmer than normal weather is expected the first half of the week ahead of a cold front on Wednesday. Cooler weather returns behind the cold front for the second half of the week along with chances for rain.

A southwest flow aloft coupled with a surface high across the Southeastern US means warmer temperatures are on the way for the final days of November. As the surface high moves into the Mid- Atlantic, a weak surface trough will attempt to form just off the coast and will lead to a small chance for a few showers along the coast Monday.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure swinging through the Intermountain West will push into the middle of the country and spawn an area of low pressure and associated cold front across Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds increase ahead of the cold front and could be on the breezy to windy side thanks to a 35 knot jet at 925mb. The strong southerly winds coupled with sunshine should make Tuesday the warmest day of the forecast period with widespread 80s.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to arrive sometime Wednesday. The EURO is faster and drier with the front as it clears the region Wednesday morning. On the flip side, the GFS (Global Forecast System) is slower and wetter as it has the front entering the Northern Ranchlands Wednesday afternoon before clearing the region Wednesday evening. As of now, have continued to go with the NBM for the timing of the front until models come into slightly better agreement. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible with the cold front, especially if the slower GFS verifies. Temperatures are a little uncertain for Wednesday with a faster passage providing the region with cooler than forecast temperatures and warmer temperatures with a slower passage.

Regardless of what happens Wednesday, Thursday is forecast to be cooler. As was the case yesterday, the biggest question is just how cool we'll be as ensemble guidance and the NBM still have a 30 degree temperature spread. It should be noted that deterministic guidance has trended a little cooler. The Canadian has widespread 50s for highs Thursday afternoon while the GFS is a few degrees cooler than the Canadian. Then you have the EURO, which is a solid 15 degrees warmer than the Canadian. Therefore, have sided with the NBM for Thursday mixed with a bit of NBM25 to knock things down a bit. You may be asking: Why the big difference? Coastal troughing. The Canadian and GFS have a coastal trough forming close enough to the region to keep us cloudy and cool along with a bit of rain while the EURO keeps the coastal trough away from us. Seeing how last weekend and yesterday (Friday) went, I'm inclined to lean towards the cooler, cloudier, wetter solution, but just can't go "all-in" on it quite yet.

As was mentioned yesterday, coastal flooding may be a concern Wednesday and Thursday depending on the strength and duration of the north to northeast winds. The good news is the astronomical tides will be on the decline, which should limit the potential. Still, with some of the beach erosion that took place last weekend, it's something we'll monitor over the coming days.

Marine
Issued at 236am CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Now through Sunday... Buoy 42020 reported west winds around 25 knots gusting to around 33 knots with seas slightly over 5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CST/650 UTC. Strong winds, rough seas, and a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect along the Lower Texas Coast today as low pressure and a frontal system develops over the western Gulf of Mexico as it moves northeast. Marine conditions will then rapidly improve tonight, and especially on Sunday, as high pressure at the surface quickly builds along the Lower Texas Coast in the wake of the low and front. Light to moderate winds and low seas are forecast for tonight and through the remainder of the weekend.

Sunday Night through Friday...Tranquil marine conditions continue to start the period thanks to high pressure over the northern Gulf. An area of low pressure develops across the middle of the country on Tuesday and tightens the pressure gradient ahead of a cold front. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions for Tuesday. The cold front then swings through sometime Wednesday and will bring a return of Small Craft Advisory conditions Wednesday through at least Thursday. There could also be a few gusts near Gale force (34 knots or higher) Wednesday afternoon/evening immediately following the cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the cold front Wednesday with rain lingering behind the front Thursday.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9am CST this morning for GMZ130-132- 135.

Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.