Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
1019 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
Weak cold front beginning to moves offshore Port Isabel is expected to pull up stationary not to far offshore tonight. Moderate north winds and a steady state moderate sea expected through early Sunday. The front retreats northward later Sunday with southeast winds returning and increasing Monday ahead of another weak front slated for Tuesday. No small Craft advisories are anticipated with either front. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible tonight and Sunday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
345am CDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
Short Term - Now through Monday
The most recent surface analysis indicates a stationary front along the Lower Texas Coast. As a result of the proximity of the front, scattered light showers are currently developing and moving through the eastern and central portions of the BRO CWFA. The stationary front is expected to transition to a warm front and slowly work back through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, maintaining the opportunity for isolated showers. Temperature-wise, with no significant cold air having been introduced with the passage of the cold front, near to above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures are anticipated.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
A 500mb shortwave trough will move across the southern plains Monday but the bulk of the convection associated with this feature will remain across portions of east Texas as low to mid level moisture appears limited across south Texas. Subsidence increases across south Texas Tuesday in the wake of the upper level trough moving eastward and continues into Wednesday as a 500mb shortwave ridge develops across east Texas Wednesday. Low to mid level moisture is expected to increase across portions of south Texas Thursday as the upper level ridge moves eastward and a 500mb trough develops across the western United States. This will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA Thursday into Thurs night before rain chances increases towards the end of the week into the weekend as global models prog significant convection developing across southwest Texas Friday and northeast Mexico Saturday as a couple of 500mb shortwave troughs move across the area through the rest of the forecast period. This will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms for deep south Texas Friday into Saturday. NBM POPs appear a little too high Friday night into Saturday so will adjust rain chances slightly lower. NBM temperature guidance looks reasonable for now so will not make any changes for the long term forecast.
.Marine - Now through Monday
Buoy 42020 reported Northeast winds around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly over 5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Slightly adverse marine conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters, due to the intrusion of a weak cold front, an enhanced pressure gradient, and the approach of moderate swells from the east-southeast. Small Craft Exercise Caution is likely to be needed between 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore and/or 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore.
Monday night through Thursday...Light south winds will prevail across the coastal waters Monday night before a weak cold front moves through offshore the lower Texas coast Tues morning. Winds will shift to the north in the wake of the front but the pressure gradient will remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico through Tues night. Light to moderate northeast winds prevail across the lower Texas coast Tues night before veering to the east Wednesday as surface high pressure across east Texas moves eastward. The pressure gradient will increase across the western Gulf Wednesday and moderate east winds will develop across the coastal waters. Winds will veer southeast Wednesday night and continue to remain moderate through Thursday with surface high pressure across the southeast United States and low pressure across southeast Colorado.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories