Marine Weather Net

Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUESDAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ130 Forecast Issued: 1004 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Building To Choppy In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Choppy On The Bay Subsiding To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.
Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
654pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022

/issued 305pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022/

Short Term - Now through Monday night
Showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon have done a number to clear out much of the energy from our atmosphere, but a few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, especially across portions of Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron Counties, through sunset. Drier conditions should then prevail for most of the region through the night, with only a 15 to 20 percent chance for rain, as we slowly clear out as temperatures drop into the middle to upper 70s.

Monday morning and afternoon should see a continuation of the drier weather to start. However, a strong shortwave moving through western Texas will spark several more showers and thunderstorms to our northwest and west. Those showers are then expected to congeal into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and push east later Monday afternoon into Monday night. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) are split on whether Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will bear the brunt of the potential MCS or if we get brushed by it as it misses the CWA to the north. Seeing as how today (Sunday) went, have elected to go on the higher side of rain chances Monday night into early Tuesday, but confidence isn't exactly the highest at this time and will be more a of Nowcasting event Monday into Monday night. *If* the MCS fully impacts the Brownsville County Warning Area (CWA), locally heavy rain and gusty winds will the biggest concerns, with some hail also being possible. As far as the flood threat is concerned, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has Zapata County under a Slight risk for flooding Monday night with the rest of the area under a marginal risk. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible, especially in Zapata, Jim Hogg and western Starr County. That's in addition to the 1 to 4 inches of rain parts of Zapata County today, so that is why they're under the Slight Risk for flooding Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

Also, there is still a Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the rest of the afternoon. The worst of the easterly swell should pass tonight and be gone by the time high tide arrives again Monday, so another Coastal Flood Statement is not expected at this time.

Long Term - Tuesday through Sunday
The strong shortwave mentioned in the short term will continue to impact the Brownsville County Warning Area (CWA) Tuesday morning as it trudges through South Texas. If the MCS materializes, any lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday, with the best chance in the Northern Ranchlands into the Rio Grande Plains. Locally heavy rain is, again, the primary concern with any ongoing showers and storms on Tuesday.

Drier conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as we'll be between systems. The next system will come in the form of a cold front as a long wave trough digs across the middle of the country. That trough pushes a cold front into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. As it heads south, it will pick up enough moisture to produce another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Following the cold front, an H5 ridge builds over northern Mexico and will provide the CWA with northwesterly flow aloft. This will bring drier weather along with temperatures slightly below normal to close out the work week. The ridge will slowly work overhead Friday and this weekend, which means we transition back to a hot and dry pattern for Memorial Day weekend.

Marine
ow through Monday Night): A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect this evening due to an easterly swell increasing seas to 5 to 7 feet tonight. Seas should begin to lower Monday morning to below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, but Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) will remain possible through Monday into Monday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being possible on the coastal waters.

Tuesday through Sunday...A strong disturbance passing north of Deep South Texas will increase winds and seas beginning Tuesday morning, where Small Craft Advisories may be needed Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday for the lower Texas coastal waters before waning Tuesday night. A cold front nears the region Wednesday night and will increase rain and storm chances yet again. Fortunately, calmer winds and seas are expected to close out the work week with more favorable marine conditions expected.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.