Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting East In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop On The Bay After Midnight.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Building To Choppy Bay Waters In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy Bay Waters.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy Bay Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop On The Bay After Midnight. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
326 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Although surface high pressure will produce favorable marine conditions through the weekend, stronger winds and higher seas are anticipated for the coming week due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed along the Lower Texas Coast beginning on Monday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
543am CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Short Term - Today Through Sunday
urface observations suggest that temperatures near freezing are developing over portions of the northern ranchlands. As a result, the inherited freeze warning for Brooks County and the inland portion of Kenedy County will remain in effect until 9am CST this morning. For the remainder of the entire forecast period, moderating temperatures are anticipated as surface high pressure shifting east establishes an onshore floor for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. In the middle layers of the atmosphere, the passage of a weak trough on Sunday will produce isolated showers over the southeast corner of the BRO CWFA and nearshore coastal waters, especially the Laguna Madre.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
Overall, only subtle changes were made from the previous long-term forecast package. The more reliable medium- and long-range deterministic forecast models remain in pretty fair agreement with the weather pattern, especially through Day 5. Much more uncertainty arises beginning on Day 6.
Southeast surface winds will return by the start of the long-term period as surface ridging quickly shifts from the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday evening to the southeastern CONUS by Monday evening. As a result, low-level moisture and warm air advection will increase into the middle part of upcoming workweek. By Tuesday, low temperatures are forecast to be in the low-mid 60s and highs around 80 degrees; these temperatures are about 8-10 degrees above seasonal average. Rain chances will begin to increase on Tuesday as a weak cold front tries to push southward through the state and low pressure develops along the Rio Grande in southwest Texas. Models are in pretty good agreement that the front will stall north of the CWA on Wednesday and lift northward on Thursday. However, model consensus keep Probability of Precipitation pretty modest for Wednesday and Thursday, with highest chances occurring on Wednesday, as surface convergence and mid-level southwest flow are strongest. Cloud cover and rain chances should keep temperatures cool during the day on Wednesday, with highs still reaching the low-to-mid 70s in the afternoon. A potent mid-level Baja low will eject northeastward on Thursday, quickly weakening into a shortwave trough. Models disagree with its position by Friday morning, with it positioned somewhere between the Central Plains and central/ northern Texas. The exact position and track of this mid-level feature will determine whether a cold front will push through the CWA on Friday.
MARINE (Now through Sunday): Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast as surface high pressure becomes centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and persists over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed.
(Sunday Night through Thursday)...Light to moderate onshore flow on Sunday night will steadily increase through the middle of next week. As low pressure develops across the southern High Plains on Monday, a strong pressure gradient will develop across the Lower Texas coastal waters. As a result, Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the offshore Gulf waters, and possibly the near- shore Gulf waters, as early as late Monday afternoon. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will occur by Monday afternoon on the bay. The pressure gradient will weaken some as a cold front approaches from the north on Wednesday, but seas on the Gulf will remain moderate to high. SCEC and possible SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may continue on the Gulf waters Wednesday night and during the day on Thursday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Freeze Warning until 9am CST this morning for TXZ250-251.