Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
930 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021
Favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through Saturday with high pressure in place over the western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient strengthens later in the weekend, with increased winds. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible late Sunday into early Monday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
543pm CDT Wednesday August 4 2021
Short Term - Now through Thursday Night
The sea breeze today is a bit less active which is likely due to the drop in the CAPE and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values indicated by the last several BRO soundings. However, KBRO radar is showing some spotty conv developing over the far western counties where the daytime heating effects are likely the strongest. The old front stalled just to our north will likely maintain enough surface conv to generate some isold/scattered conv especially across the northern and western sections of the region. The usual sea breeze effects tomorrow afternoon may also help initiate additional conv. The conv will likely diminish during the overnight and early morning hours across the inland areas with the loss of he daytime heating and sea breeze effects.
At the mid levels of the atms, the conv potential may be limited a bit as the 500 mb ridging starts edging into the region from the east. But will leave some mention of probability of precipitation in through Thur Night.
The short term model guidance is in reasonable agreement for both temps and pops. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and NAM show a little higher probability of precipitation versus the GFS. Will go close to a model blend for both temps and probability of precipitation through Thur Night with the best probability of precipitation located mainly over the northern Ranchlands and over the Gulf waters.
Heat Index values will remain just shy of Advisory levels mainly for the western counties for Thurs afternoon.
Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
500mb troughing will exit the Central Plains on Friday, with the trailing trough axis acting to provide one last chance for showers and thunderstorms before subsidence takes over for the weekend. 500mb ridging then quickly builds in for Saturday with midlevel high pressure becoming centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. The middle and upper level pattern then looks to remain largely unchanged through the middle of next week, favoring another stretch of hot and generally rain-free weather for much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Broad surface high pressure will remain centered over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, favoring onshore flow through the period. High temperatures each day look to top out at or perhaps slightly below seasonal normals, but will remain high enough to maintain heat indices of 105-110 degrees each afternoon across the CWA.
Marine - Now through Thursday night
A relatively weak PGF will prevail over the lower TX Bay and Gulf waters through Thurs Night. This will maintain light to moderate winds and seas across the region with no SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through tomorrow night.
Friday through Monday: Light to moderate southeast winds occur on Friday with surface high pressure in control. Broad high pressure will then remain in place over the central and eastern Gulf through early next week. Low pressure then looks to develop over the Central Plains and move eastward across portions of the Midwest through the weekend, which will tighten the pressure gradient enough to push winds into SCEC levels starting Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday. Wave heigheights will slowly increase as a result.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories