Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northwest Winds Around 20 Knots. Rough On The Bay.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Building To Choppy In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Saturday...North Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Smooth On The Bay Building To A Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
419 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
Strong north to northwest winds will continue to increase in the wake of a cold front that moved offshore the lower Texas coast earlier today. Seas will build behind the front, maintaining hazardous marine conditions into the overnight hours tonight. Marine conditions will gradually improve over the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
653pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
/issued 307pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021/ Short Term - Tonight through Thursday Night
The cold front pushed through the Brownsville/SPI area just shortly after 18z/1 PM CDT today. The drier air has rapidly infiltrated the region, with dewpoint temperatures already in the 30s across the Northern Ranchlands and western Rio Grande Valley as of 2pm CDT. Wind speeds, thus far behind the front, have remained below Wind Advisory criteria, though a few wind gusts have approached 40 mph in some isolated areas across the CWA. The Wind Advisory for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties remain in effect until 21z/4 PM CDT. Wind speeds are forecast to drop around or slightly after sunset this evening. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will likely be allowed to expire at 00z/7pm CDT. The cooler air is lagging a few hours behind the cold front. Current temperatures across the region are very hot for late October and are near or have already broken daily records.
Much more comfortable conditions are expected by this evening as the arid air quickly cools down temperatures after sunset. Tonight's lows will bottom out in the mid-upper 50s in most locations, with low-mid 60s along the coast. Clear skies will continue.nue into Thursday as northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure maintain the cool, dry air across Southern Texas. High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal average. A second surge of strong northerly winds at 850-925mb will wrap around the main mid-level low that will be over the Mississippi on Thursday afternoon. Some of these may mix down towards the surface during the day. In turn, this may keep winds on the breezy side along the coast, but shouldn't be nearly as strong as they were today. Another cool and mostly clear night is anticipated Thursday night, with widespread 50s for lows.
Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
A strong 500mb low centered over the Ohio River Valley will move its way east leaving behind a ridge over the central United States. The ridge will flatten out by Sunday and allow for mostly zonal flow to dominate over Texas through the long term period.
Thanks to the cold front, the end of the week will feel pleasant as winds continue to stay northerly. NBM had daytime highs for Friday and Saturday below average in the lower 80s, but mostly clear and sunny skies are forecast, so have decided to bump up the temperatures a couple of degrees. Dewpoint temperatures will stay in the 30s to 50s with high temperatures in the upper 80s but lows will be a few degrees below normal in the mid 50s due to the cooler dewpoint temperatures. Winds start to shift southeasterly overnight Saturday which will allow the dewpoints to climb back up to the 60s and we start to feel warm and muggy again. Temperatures will still stay near seasonal average through the end of the period.
As for precipitation, Deep South Texas will remain mostly dry for the next 5 days. Rain chances start to increase towards the end of the long term period on Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly over the coastal counties and Gulf Waters, when a mid-level shortwave disturbance makes its way through southern Texas. Models are not in great agreement regarding the precipitation chances so have just kept mostly the coastal counties and Gulf Waters in a slight chance for Tuesday and Wednesday.
onight through Thursday Night): Hazardous marine conditions will persist across the lower Texas coastal waters through the rest of tonight as strong northerly winds continue. A brief lull in wind speeds is possible early-mid Thursday morning before northwesterly winds increase late Thursday morning and again late Thursday night. Regardless, seas will remain agitated during the short term period, ranging between 4 and 7 feet. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected to occur over the offshore waters.
Friday through Wednesday: Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed for Friday as 5 to 7 foot seas begin to decrease as the pressure gradient weakens. Northwesterly flow shifts to southeasterly overnight Saturday and seas stay at 2 to 3 feet for most of the period before building back up to 4 feet on Wednesday.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas until 7pm this evening. Relative humidity values have quickly dropped behind this morning's cold front. As of 2pm CDT, relative humidity values range between 10-20% along and west of the I- 69E/U.S.-77 corridor. Additionally, northerly winds behind the front have been breezy and gusty. Frequent wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph, with occasional gusts greater than 30 mph, will be possible through at least sunset this evening. Light winds and some moisture recovery is likely overnight tonight, but humidity values will quickly drop again after sunrise Thursday. The good news is that wind speeds are forecast to be much lighter during the day Thursday. However, there may be a brief period where elevated fire weather conditions may develop as winds may occasionally become gusty in the afternoon. A fire danger statement may be needed.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1am CDT Thursday for TXZ256-257-351.
Red Flag Warning until 7pm CDT this evening for TXZ248>257-351- 353.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10pm CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Friday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.