Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast Late This Morning, Then Becoming East Early This Afternoon Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots Late This Afternoon. Light Chop On The Bay Becoming A Moderate Chop Late This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North Early In The Morning. Light Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Northeast Late In The Afternoon. Light Chop On The Bay Becoming A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North Early In The Morning. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North Early In The Morning. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
256pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 241pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
A midlevel trough extending from the Great Lakes into portions of the Southern Plains will bring a weak cold front into central Texas by early Monday with the front pushing through Deep South Texas Monday night into early Tuesday.
Ahead of the front increased moisture will continue to lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region through much of the period. The highest chances of precipitation will coincide with the afternoon seabreeze activity today, and along and just ahead of the front on Monday. The front is expected to begin pushing through the county warning area(CWA) Monday evening/overnight but not making through the lower Valley until Tuesday. Rain chances will begin to diminish from northwest to southeast as the front eases southeastward.
Temperatures will remain warm today and Monday with highs generally upper 80s along the coast to upper 90s along the Rio Grande Plains. Overnight will remain warm and muggy tonight with lows falling into the low to mid 70s, and cooler air beginning to filter into portions of the northern ranchlands for Monday night with temperatures in the mid 70s across the Lower Valley to upper 60s across portions of the Ranchlands.
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front will be clearing the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning with a lingering shower or thunderstorm possible. As the front pushes south Tuesday afternoon, high pressure builds in and pushes much drier air over the region. Daytime highs behind the front will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s for much of the region with middle to upper 50s possible across the Northern Ranchlands. Along the coast, minor coastal flooding, high surf, and a high risk of rip currents are possible the second half of the work week.
Some weak vorticity swinging around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern third of the country will finally push a cold front fully through the County Warning Area (CWA) Tuesday morning. A few showers and/or storms are possible along the front until it finally moves south into Mexico. Behind the front, much drier air settles over the region on the heels of a north to northeasterly breeze. In other words, we finally get a break from the humidity in the final days of September and to begin October! That drier air and northeast wind will allow overnight temperatures to cool into the 60s Tuesday night; the wind slackens quite a bit Wednesday night, so the stage will be set for widespread lower to middle 60s Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night. Some locations in the Brooks/Kenedy Ranches and the Brush Country will likely dip into the middle to upper 50s Thursday night and Friday night. Those cool nigheights will be followed up by warm, but still below normal, afternoons with widespread upper 80s to lower to middle 90s across the CWA (County Warning Area) each afternoon. All-in-all, not a bad way to end September and begin October here in Deep South Texas weather- wise.
However, there are some coastal hazards in the forecast thanks in large part to Tropical Storm Ian, which is forecast to intensify as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a strong area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Those two things combined will increase wave heights, swells, and swell periods Wednesday and Thursday before they subside throughout the day Friday. As a result, minor coastal flooding, high surf, and a high risk of rip currents remains a concern as soon as early Tuesday night and lasting through the rest of the work week. High tide times Wednesday are 3:47AM and 7:01 PM; Thursday's high tide is at 8:57PM. Those will be important to know/remember as we get a better handle at any potential coastal flooding impacts Ian may bring.
Issued at 241pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
Now through Monday Night: Generally favorable marine conditions are expected along the lower Texas coast through the remainder of the day today. Slightly elevated winds could prompt low end caution conditions by Monday afternoon into Monday night. A cold front is slated to move through the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized elevated winds and seas.
Tuesday through Sunday: An isolated shower or storm will remain possible Tuesday morning as a cold front slowly pushes south of the Lower Texas Coast. Moderate north to northwest winds are forecast in the wake of the front along with slightly elevated seas. This may lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Tuesday through Tuesday night. Swells from Ian will reach the Texas Coast by Wednesday and bring hazardous marine conditions mid to late week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday and linger into Friday due to seas running between 7 to 9 feet.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories