Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Smooth On The Bay Building To A Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Tuesday...South Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Smooth On The Bay Building To A Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
921 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020
Very favorable marine conditions are expected through the next several days. High pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico, along with a stationary frontal boundary across the Southern Plains, will act to keep the pressure gradient slack. Light winds and low seas are anticipated until late Friday, when the surface high strengthens, increasing the pressure gradient slightly and bringing about a return of occasionally moderate southeast winds and seas.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
310pm CDT Monday August 3 2020
Short Term - Now through Tuesday night
A couple of small- scale, light showers have developed along the sea-breeze front early this afternoon, but these are not able to sustain themselves very long nor show much development in the unfavorable environment aloft. As of this writing, there is still a shower or two within/just outside the CWA. Overall, though, rather quiet weather is still expected through early Wednesday morning.
Tonight, continued drying of the tropospheric column will continue, via W-NW flow at mid-upper levels. The GFS forecasts precipitable water to fall below 1.5", well below the climatological value of ~1.7" for Brownsville. Low-level flow looks too light to even be conducive to streamer showers. Visibility guidance picking up on some patchy fog again early Tuesday morning in an arc roughly from Hebbronville over toward Sarita. Falfurrias recorded several hours of fog/mist this morning, so with the mostly clear skies and very light winds expected, will insert it in the forecast again. Another thing to watch might be a convectively-induced short-wave trough (and surface outflow boundary) riding down in the NW flow from its current position in NW Texas. However, lift with this feature appears pretty weak in latest clean-IR satellite imagery, so will lean into strong model consensus which dissipates the feature, along with its associated moisture, to the north of our area late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Could see a few mid-level clouds move in from this feature, but that's about it.
More fair weather in store for Tuesday, with 1016mb surface high forecast to be centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Ample sunshine should allow temps to climb into the mid-90s for most of the mid- Lower Rio Grande Valley and be pushing 100F in the typically hotter areas of Starr and Zapata counties. Will note that the NBM max temps were bumped up a little, as they were running low compared to MOS guidance. Lower dewpoints out west (currently 58F at KHBV; tomorrow will be similar) help keep heat indices in check somewhat, though several hours of 101-106F readings likely. It is early August, after all!
Long Term - Wednesday through Monday
500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas Wednesday will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas. A weakness in the subtropical ridge develops across the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday as a tropical wave across the Yucatan Peninsula moves into the Bay of Campeche Thurs night. This will allow moisture to increase across the coastal sections Thursday into Friday warranting a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly across the coastal counties of deep south Texas Thursday with a better chance of rain across the coastal sections of the CWA Friday. In addition...a 500mb inverted trough will move across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday and move into northeast Mexico Saturday. This will provide at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern portions of deep south Texas Saturday. Will mention a slight chance of rain through the rest of the forecast period through the rest of the forecast period as the upper level ridge shifts slightly westward Sunday and the GFS progs another 500mb inverted trough moving into the southwest Gulf of Mexico Monday.
Marine - Now through Tuesday night
Very favorable marine conditions are expected through the next several days. Latest wave heigheights from both Buoy 42020 and TABS-K show seas of only about one foot. High pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico, along with a stationary frontal boundary across the Southern Plains, will act to keep the pressure gradient slack. Light winds and low/flat seas are anticipated.
Wednesday through Saturday...Light southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday with surface high pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain weak across the lower Texas coast through the rest of the week into the weekend. Light east to southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday through Saturday as a result.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories