Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 635pm CDT Thu April 18 2024 Long Term (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 237pm CDT Thu April 18 2024 Key Messages: * Showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility Saturday night through Sunday as a cold front sweeps over the area. * Big airmass change to the cooler and drier side in the wake of the cold front Sunday and Monday. * Temperatures and humidity levels attempt to rebound Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The main weather concern during the long-term forecast period continues to focus on the risk/potential for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday. We start off the long-term period on Saturday where we'll see another very warm and humid day before the big weather change. On the western flank of a departing surface high pressure system to our east, southeasterly winds will continue to advect moist and warm air in the region. This will allow for daytime high temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of Deep South Texas (cooler near/along the coast). Subsidence amid continued influences from the surface high will allow for another dry and tranquil weather day on Saturday. Deterministic forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise the potential for showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday night through Sunday in response to a cold front that's forecast to sweep across the region. Models remain rather dispersed as far as the areal/spatial and temporal extent of showers and storms Saturday night into Sunday. That said, have 20-50% chance probability of precipitation to reflect a low to medium confidence on the threat/risk of showers and storms at this time stamp. As we sort out the more salient details with future model iterations, will have a better handle regarding this threat. With surface-based CAPE (SBCAPE) via the latest 12z runs sampled in excess of 1,000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear values sampled between 30-45 kts, showalter values between 0C to -4C denoting a moderately to very unstable/buoyant airmass in place, and mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km, it's certainly plausible that some storms could become strong to severe Saturday night through Sunday. With a weak/unfavorable jet structure support, a lot will depend on the forward momentum/strength of the frontal boundary and to what extent any ongoing upstream convective activity to our north will be able to hold together as it shifts into our region as there will likely need to be some forcing mechanism to help offset a cap that will be in place in what will likely be a conditionally unstable environment during this timeframe. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has our cwa designated under a general outlook for thunderstorms. Depending on where the front is positioned, there could be another round of showers and storms Sunday afternoon/evening and maybe again during the day on Monday. The front is expected to be far south enough to result in a notable airmass change to the cooler and drier side Sunday and Monday, however. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s to near 80F both days with dewpoint values in the 60s. Tuesday through Thursday, temperatures and humidity levels attempt to rebound once again as the aforementioned cold front lifts northward over the area as a warm front or quasi-stationary front. NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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