Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast Early This Afternoon, Then Becoming Southeast Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Feet This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Morning. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 634pm CDT Sunday July 3 2022 AVIATION... Thunderstorms continue to dissipate with no terminals expected to be impacted overnight. HUM will be the only one we'll have to watch. MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conds possible at MCB late tonight/early Monday morning but otherwise sites should stay VFR. Scattered thunderstorms return again for Monday and have handled them with VCTS and TEMPO groups. /issued 337pm CDT Sunday July 3 2022/ Short Term - Today Through Tuesday An upper level analysis shows a broad trough moving across the northeast CONUS, another one coming into the PAC NW and a ridge encompassing pretty much everywhere else. The center of that ridge has been gradually shifting east and is now quite close to the CWA. There seems to be quite a bit of moisture still caught inside the ridge as models indicating PW's in the low 2" range. So while temps should increase with 500mb heigheights rising and some subsidence induced suppression of convection may occur, probably still looking at scattered thunderstorms each day during this period. The only appreciable change made to the forecast from NBM is higher POPs in the daily 00Z-03Z timeframe. NBM likes to drop coverage drastically after 00Z while typical dissipation of convection usually takes a few hours to actually occur. Forecast highs are between the 50th and 75th percentile range of the NBM, which is low/mid 90s and slightly above normal. Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday The overall forecast really doesn't change that much for the local area. Still looking at daily afternoon thunderstorms over land areas and nocturnal marine convection. The eventual location of the center of the ridge will play into what actual convective coverage is. The further it is away from the local area, the higher the rain chances will be and vice versa. While medium range operational GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) showed slightly different movements of that ridge, today's runs look fairly similar with the center slowly retrograding west as the week progresses. NBM POPs are on the wetter side and today's forecast is no different. Marine... Surface high pressure will generally remain centered in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This location will keep winds onshore and its proximity to the local coastal waters will only support winds in the 5-10kt range in the day and 8-13kt range at night. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue to be the main concern as scattered to numerous showers and storms persist. Coverage may decrease (but not disappear entirely) Monday as a weak upper level high pressure builds into the area, with only isolated to scattered convection in the forecast. A slight increase is expected to follow. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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