Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541pm CST Thu Dec 1 2022
(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 323pm CST Thu Dec 1 2022
A mid latitude trough will be tracking east across the Central and High Plains Friday, crossing the upper/mid Mississippi River Valley Friday night. As surface ridge north of the CWA (County Warning Area) slides east, southeasterly flow will return and bring moisture back to the area. As Saturday comes, the cold front associated with this system will be approaching the CWA during the afternoon hours. Glancing at model soundings, there with be a little elevated instability in place with the help of low level temps in the mid to upper 70s. Not expecting much in the way of thunder activity but could be a few thunderstorms in the mix as the front moves in. Coverage should no more than 50% with the highest rain chances in southwest Mississippi and slightly lower north of I-12 in LA and I-10 in MS. The higher rain chances shift southward (south of I-10). Slight chance showers will probably linger into Sunday as the cold front appears to stall and dissolve over the CWA due the lack of southward digging of the trough.
The remainder of the forecast period, early next week, will be similar to Sunday. The upper ridge, still centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico, will again expand farther north. Since moisture really never gets flushed out, could still be looking at slight chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty on that potential because if the ridge builds enough to the north, it may provide too much subsidence for shower initiation. Unusually warm temps would exist in the setup as that ridge builds north with. Global models suggest highs will be topping out in the upper 70s to the low 80s. Record highs this time of year run around the low to mid 80s, so won't be too far off from that.
Issued at 323pm CST Thu Dec 1 2022
Surface ridge currently building in from the north of the local area is quickly shifting east. Winds have already begun to rotate around to the east and are steadily subsiding as the pressure gradient weakens. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect but have replaced it in the open Gulf waters with an Exercise Caution headline through tonight.
Southeasterly flow will persist until the next frontal boundary approaches the coastal waters late on Saturday afternoon/evening. The upper level trough driving this front south looks to remain quite far north, with the base of it not much farther south than Indiana/Ohio latitude. That means this front will really be losing steam as it reaches the local area. It will probably stall as it gets here with return flow quickly coming back.
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.