Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard out 20 NM South of Block Island Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming E 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt After Midnight. Seas 9 To 14 Ft. A Chance Of Rain This Evening, Then Rain After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...S Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt, Becoming Sw Around 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 15 To 20 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon Night...W Winds Around 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 12 To 17 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray. A Chance Of Snow. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| 427 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 |
Synopsis for Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastal waters - ANZ200
High pressure sleds east of the waters this evening. Low pressure moving up the coast tonight will bring gale to storm force east to southeast winds. These winds will shift out of the southwest Monday afternoon. High pressure builds across the waters midweek, bringing diminishing wind.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
645pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022
A strong storm will impact the region late tonight into Monday morning, with heavy snow over the high terrain of western and central MA, and brief snow changing to heavy rain elsewhere. Strong to damaging winds along the coast as well as coastal flooding is expected. Blustery and cold weather returns Tuesday followed by milder air Wednesday. A weak frontal system moves through the region Wednesday night followed by colder weather Thursday and Friday.
Near Term - Until 10pm This Evening
This evening... Cold high pressure just east of MA, and will continue to slowly advect offshore. Although, plenty of cold/dry air over SNE with negative dew pts (-10C at ORH) along and NW of I-95 at 3 pm. This cold/dry airmass will delay any precipitation until after 10 pm along with cold conditions, although not nearly as cold as the past two nights. Winds will be light from the SE along with increasing clouds as the evening progresses.
.SHORT TERM /10pm THIS EVENING THROUGH 6pm MONDAY/... 345 PM
Overnight and Monday... * Strong to Damaging Winds late tonight and Monday Morning * Heavy snow high terrain of western and central MA, with brief snow changing to heavy rain elsewhere * Street/highway flooding likely Monday morning impacting theam commute * Widespread minor to moderate Coastal Flooding Monday Morning
Overview... *** Multi Facet Storm Impacts SNE late tonight/Monday morning ***
Potent/amplifying closed low moves up the eastern seaboard tonight and takes on a negative tilt as it tracks from PA-NY-VT Monday. There continues to be signals for a secondary low development further to the east over Long Island, which seems reasonable given impressive height falls that develop. This will enhance the low level wind field/wind threat, heavier qpf via convergence and also delay of erosion of low level cold air over the interior. Anomalous southerly mid level jet and E/SE low level jet will bring quick warming into the low to mid levels which will result in snow changing to rain overnight into Monday morning. However, not before a decent front end thump of snow over the higher terrain. Farther south and east, the greater concern is the risk of strong to damaging winds along the coast late tonight into Monday morning as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding during the Monday morning high tide.
Ptype/Snow Accumulation... Snow overspreads much of the region between 10 pm and 2 am from southwest to northeast, courtesy of cold/dry airmass in place this evening. Snow is short lived across most of CT/RI and eastern MA, changing over to all rain fairly quickly, with most locations picking up an inch or less. However, farther inland from northwest CT into western-central MA, especially the high terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, a front end thump of snow (heavy at times) persist to almost daybreak. Very anomalous 925 mb and 850 mb jet on the order of +4 to +6 STD from climo, will result in vigorous upward motion. NAM soundings are aggressive with warm nose penetrating the 850-800 layer, changing heavy snow over to sleet and freezing rain quicker then the remaining 12z guidance. GFS and HREF delay this mid level warming, likely due to dynamical cooling from vigorous upward motion. This seems plausible given anomalous jet dynamics, upslope flow and mid level low taking on a negative tilt along with good snow growth as max omega in the -15C to -20C layer.
In fact, HREF indicating low prob of snowfall rates approaching 2-4" per hour between 09z-12z across the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. While our current and previous forecast calls for 6- 12" across this region, low prob a few locations may approach 15" in this area. Thankfully snow will mainly be dry for much of the event, only ending as wet snow. Thus, not overly concerned about down tree limbs/power outages due to heavy snow. For northern Worcester county, forecast remains unchanged with 4-8" likely, and surrounding areas 1-4" before changing to rain.
Given not much change in new 12z guidance, winter headlines will remain the same. Not expecting much wintry impacts to the morning commute outside of the high terrain, except for heavy rain impacts.
Heavy Rain Threat... Anomalous PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of just over 1 inch (300% of normal!) combined with 80-90 kt low level jet will result in a 3-6 hr period of heavy rainfall late tonight into Monday morning across RI and eastern MA. Hi- res CAMs also indicating some convective elements with a possible fine line further south over the ocean where there is marginal instability. Rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected which will result in areas of urban and poor drainage street flooding. In addition, given recent frigid weather, ground remains frozen and this will likely enhance runoff. Thus, this will likely exacerbate street and highway flooding/hydroplaning Monday morning.
Strong to Damaging Winds... * Strong winds 3am to 9 AM
Very anomalous low level jet 80-90 kt lifts along the south coast then northward along eastern MA late tonight into Monday morning. The jet is strengthening as it moves off the coast and into the Gulf of Maine with 850 mb winds increasing to 100 kt from east of Cape Cod to Gulf of Maine. Bufkit time section show 60-70 kt down to near 500 ft along the immediate coast. Given impressive pressure falls exceeding 12 mb/3 hr and convective elements, expect a decent chunk of this to mix down to the surface with gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast, first along the south coast toward daybreak then lifting north along eastern MA coast 7-10 am. The strongest gusts will be from the outer Cape to Cape Ann where a few gusts to 70 mph are possible. Wind damage and power outages are likely. High wind warnings and wind advisories remain posted.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
Quiet weather continues this evening with light winds and temperatures now back into the teens and low 20s. The main change with this evening's update was to warm temps a bit to bring them in line with observations. Still several hours to go of falling temperatures before warm air start moving in from the south.
Previous Discussion... Highlights... * Mostly dry this week. Chance of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
* Gusty winds continue Monday night and Tuesday.
* Breezy on Wednesday.
* Next chance of a storm comes around next weekend but most likely outcome at this time is that it stays out to sea.
Details... Monday night and Tuesday... By Monday night most of the precipitation is well removed from southern New England, save for western MA where orographically enhanced light snow showers may continue overnight under west winds. Gusty winds will be the most notable weather overnight, coinciding with a drop in temperatures. A cold advection pattern promotes efficient mixing of a potent low level jet, keeping winds gusty overnight (25 to 35 mph). Tuesday we remain between the exiting low and an incoming high pressure ridge prolonging gusty winds, 30 to 40 mph. The airmass behind Monday's cold front will keep highs below normal once again, in the upper 20s.
Tuesday night through Saturday... High pressure at the surface slides overhead late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a respite from the gusty winds as clouds begin to fill in ahead of our next shortwave. It's rather short lived, however, as the pressure gradient quickly tightens once again in association with the next low passing to our north. The shortwave moves over the Great Lakes on Wednesday while its surface low passes near the US-Canadian border. This lifts a warm front through our region during the day Wednesday, so while we start off very cold (in the single digits and teens) temperatures rebound remarkably, into the 30s and even mid to upper 40s! A plume of moisture pulled north ahead of this shortwave will interact with an approaching cold front and mid/upper jet support to bring widespread light snow or more likely rain chances to the region. Lack of moisture will keep amounts light and most likely not everyone sees any precipitation at all. By Thursday afternoon any precipitation has moved out and high pressure moves overhead clear through Saturday. This will keep things quiet. A digging trough and coastal low may move up the east coast around Saturday, but for now high pressure looks to suppress it south and east of us. Nearly all the EPS and GEFS members take it well offshore as of the 1/16 12Z run. Something to watch but for now the most likely outcome is no impacts for southern New England.
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
* Storm Warnings in effect for all waters for late tonight into Monday morning.
Tonight... Strongest wind 3 am to daybreak, as intensifying low pressure moves tracks from eastern NC to eastern PA. Rain overspreads the waters between 10 pm to 2 am, then heavy at times toward morning.
Monday... Very strong ESE winds up to 50 kt, possibly approaching 65 kt over the eastern MA waters. This will result in seas 15-20 kt Monday morning across the RI and southern MA waters, to 20-25 kt over the eastern MA waters. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms possible. Big improvement in the afternoon with a wind shift to the SW and decreasing speeds, but also a drying trend with improving vsbys.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
*** Coastal Flood Warning in effect Monday Morning for the East Coast from Plymouth county northward ***
*** Coastal Flood Advisory in effect Monday morning for Cape/Islands and the South Coast ***
ESE wind gusts 55-65 mph will result in storm surge 2 to 3 ft along eastern MA coast. This combined with seas up to 25 ft just offshore will result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. The greatest risk of moderate flooding is along the north shore, especially Cape Ann and Plum Island as peak of wind/surge likely to coincide with high tide for these locations. Surges are expected to be a bit lower near Cape/Islands where minor flooding is expected.
Along the south coast, a storm surge of 3 ft is likely with up to a 4 ft surge at PVD, but the timing of the peak surge may occur just after high tide. Still, we expect areas of minor coastal flooding along the south coast and Narragansett Bay during the high tide.
Storm surge values for this forecast were derived from a blend of ESTOFS/ETSS and Stevens Institute ensemble storm surge guidance.
Again, forecast confidence for moderate coastal flooding is greatest in the warning area, with minor flooding in the advisory area.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7am EST Monday for CTZ002>004. MA...High Wind Warning from 1am to 10am EST Monday for MAZ020-021. High Wind Warning from 1am to noon EST Monday for MAZ007-015- 016-019-022>024. Coastal Flood Warning from 9am to 1pm EST Monday for MAZ007- 015-016-019. Wind Advisory from 4am to 10am EST Monday for MAZ005-006-013- 014-017-018. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7am EST Monday for MAZ003-005-010>012. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6am to 9am EST Monday for MAZ020. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday for MAZ002-004-008-009-026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9am to 1pm EST Monday for MAZ022>024. RI...High Wind Warning from 1am to 10am EST Monday for RIZ006>008. Wind Advisory from 4am to 10am EST Monday for RIZ001>005. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6am to 9am EST Monday for RIZ002- 004>007.
Storm Warning from 1am to 11am EST Monday for ANZ232>237-255- 256. Storm Warning from 2am to 11am EST Monday for ANZ230. Storm Warning from 1am to 1pm EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251- 254.