Monterey Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 8 To 9 Ft, Decreasing To 6 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Swell S Up To 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Wed...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. Swell S Up To 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 7 To 8 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Wind Waves 8 To 9 Ft. Swell S Up To 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 9 To 10 Ft. Swell Sw Up To 2 Ft At 18 Seconds.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 7 To 8 Ft. Swell Sw Up To 2 Ft At 17 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. Swell Sw Up To 2 Ft At 17 Seconds.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. Swell Sw Up To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. Swell Sw Up To 2 Ft. Locally Lower Winds And Seas Across Sheltered Portions Of The Bay.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1106pm PDT Tuesday May 17 2022
A warming trend will continue into Wednesday as high pressure builds. Temperatures cool a few degrees Thursday as a dry cold front moves into the Great Basin. This will bring dry offshore winds to the region Thursday into Friday with increasing fire weather concerns. Seasonably warm and dry weather this weekend into early next week.
As of 09:41pm PDT Tuesday...Temperatures at the 8pm hour were a few to several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The atmosphere is warming up as high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins strengthening into CA by early tomorrow morning. Daytime highs tomorrow will see widespread upper 80s to low 90s across the interior putting many inland locations 10-15 degrees above normal for mid May.
By Thursday, an inside slider (an inland low pressure system from the north moving southward along CA) will become the next dominant synoptic feature. Breezy to moderately gusty offshore winds are still on track for Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Latest NAM and WRF are indicating that the window for strongest offshore winds will start around 8-10 pm Thursday and then lessen around 6-8 am Friday. This is a good reminder that we're getting into that time of year where folks need to be alert for upcoming fire weather conditions as winds, lower humidity, and drying fuels are approaching near critical conditions.
As of 12:55pm PDT Tuesday...Skies are sunny this afternoon region wide except for a few wisps of stratus for coastal Monterey county. 24 hour trends show most areas about 3-6 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to Mondays cool temperatures. Expect to see some coastal low clouds reform overnight as the ridge of high pressure builds and compresses the marine inversion layer.
For Weds the main forecast theme is for continued warming trend, especially inland areas as upper 80s and lower 90s return to the forecast as high pressure over the East Pac builds towards our coastline.
On Thursday an inside slider moves into the Great Basin. Enough cool advection for temps to cool a few degrees but the main impacts will be lowering humidity and increasing dry northerly winds. Though the strongest winds should stay confined to the hills above 1500 feet and the far East Bay interior valleys.
On Thursday evening the strongest pulse of offshore winds will arrive with gusts in the 40-50 mph range for the Napa hills and Mt Diablo. Right now the best alignment for critical fire weather concerns looks to stay over the Central Valley. That being said fire weather concerns will be on the increase over the Bay Area. At the very least fuels will begin to rapidly dry over the next few days with breezy conditions always a concern as humidities lower under dry northerly flow.
North winds ease on Friday as the strongest winds ease followed by very low humidity values for the interior areas, down in the teens. Will continue to consider if any wind advisories or fire weather products are needed but for now will use generic headlines in the Fire Wx forecasts. Anecdotally the synoptic setup is similar to the May 2008 Summit fire in the Santa Cruz mountains so do your part and be one less spark.
A nice Bay Area weekend in store with seasonably warm temperatures inland and mild at the coast. Latest deterministic ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suggests general warming and drying next week with periods of offshore winds possible. Cluster analysis still showing about a 30 percent chance of trough solution towards the end of next week but either way no rain in the forecast.
as of 09:11pm PDT Tuesday...Northwesterly gale force wind gusts will persist across the coastal waters through much of the week. Strong and gusty winds will also prevail across the the San Francisco and Monterey Bay each afternoon and evening through midweek. Strong winds will generate steep fresh swells.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm
GALE WARNING...Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 0-10 nm
GALE WARNING...Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 0-10 nm
GALE WARNING...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm
GALE WARNING...Pigeon Point to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay