Monterey Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Sun...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves Around 2 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft. Locally Lower Winds And Seas Across Sheltered Portions Of The Bay.|
|738 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021 .Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries... North to northwest gales over most of the coastal waters tonight through Friday, winds then gradually decreasing over the northern waters Friday night into Saturday. Gales continuing over most of the southern waters Friday night. These winds will generate steep to very steep fresh swell and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels, combining with a moderate period northwest swell through the weekend.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1037pm PST Thu Feb 25 2021
Cool nights, mild afternoons and dry weather conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend with an increase in offshore winds from Friday night into early Sunday. While a weather system may bring rain showers to Northern California early next week, much of the San Francisco Bay Area
and Central Coast will likely remain dry.
as of 9:37pm PST Thursday...No significant forecast updates this evening. We still have an 8-9 mb northerly gradient down the coast with gale warnings over much of the ocean. This pattern has generated strong upwelling with SST down into the lower 50s along the coast. Any onshore breezes near the coast/beaches the next few days will be especially chilly as this was already felt this afternoon with cool 50s around sunset. The airmass remains dry with dewpoints down into the upper 20s and 30s making for a chilly night ahead as winds ease off over land. No widespread frost forecast but therell be a chill in the air by sunrise given the dry airmass.
As noted below nice weather in store to wind out the work week with dry and seasonal wx.
Next item of note will be shortwave dropping into Nevada on Saturday. This pattern will set up some offshore winds across the Bay Area hills once again. Cool and blustery winds in the hills on Saturday will increase Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly over the North and East Bay hills. Winds look a little weaker with this offshore event with gusts generally in the 40-55 mph range but more limited to the higher elevations above 2000 feet. Humidity looks more elevated as well at least through early Sunday morning. Winds ease with drying and warming by Sunday afternoon. In terms of weekend planning, temps on Sunday look to be a little warmer and more pleasant for outdoor activities.
High pressure builds late Sunday through at least early next week with continued dry and mild wx. Will be watching an initial system drop down towards CA by Tue/Weds but latest guidance suggest that system will weaken and miss us. Better agreement that longwave trough sets up along the CA coast around March 5-6th with a moderate strength surface cold frontal passage. Long range trends then suggest an upper trough sets up residence over the region through mid-month with possible precipitation chances. Not seeing any AR connections but rather a colder Gulf of Alaska type trough off the West Coast. Its about the best we can ask for at this time, as March can be a fairly wet month but we are running out of time to put dents in our rainfall deficits that will almost certainly end the rain year well below normal.
conditions will prevail through tonight with another uptick in northerly winds in the region's ridges and peaks. With the dry air mass, clear sky conditions and light winds in the lower elevations tonight, look for temperatures to drop into the 30s for many interior locations with 40s elsewhere. Similar to this afternoon, Friday will feature above average temperatures and mostly clear sky conditions with offshore flow continuing.
Winds will once again increase region-wide Friday night into Saturday as a mid/upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin before developing into a cut-off low over Arizona on Sunday. This will bring another round of strong, gusty offshore winds across the peaks and ridges while locally mixing down into the hills. Thus, another Wind Advisory may be needed during the upcoming weekend for portions of the Bay Area/Central Coast. Winds are forecast to begin to weaken during the day Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mostly sunny/clear conditions look to prevail through the upcoming weekend with daytime temperatures above seasonal averages.
Forecast confidence decreases heading into early next week as the deterministic models vary with respect to the mid/upper level pattern. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) depicts a trough sweeping across the Pacific Northwest resulting in the potential for a few rain showers reaching northern California. Meanwhile, the GFS indicates high pressure aloft until a closed mid/upper level low approaches the coast midweek with increased potential for some precipitation. That said, the ensembles suggest mostly dry weather conditions with temperatures near seasonal averages heading into at least the first half of next week. Thereafter, there is slightly better confidence of unsettled, wetter conditions toward the end of next week (around March 5th- 6th).
as of 9:17pm PST Thursday...North to northwest gales over most of the coastal waters tonight through Friday, winds then gradually decreasing over the northern waters Friday night into Saturday. Gales continuing over most of the southern waters Friday night. These winds will generate steep to very steep fresh swell and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels, combining with a moderate period northwest swell through the weekend.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM