Marine Weather Net

Monterey Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

MON

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ535 Forecast Issued: 229 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 13 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 13 Seconds. Showers.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Wind Waves 7 To 8 Ft. W Swell 7 To 9 Ft At 16 Seconds. Showers.
Mon...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 13 To 15 Ft At 18 Seconds. Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Mon Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 11 To 13 Ft At 17 Seconds.
Tue...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 10 To 12 Ft At 17 Seconds.
Tue Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 8 To 10 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 6 To 8 Ft And Nw 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft And W 5 To 7 Ft. Winds And Wind Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. Locally Lower Winds And Seas Across Sheltered Portions Of The Bay.
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229 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
A strong storm system will transit southward through the waters from late tonight through tomorrow night. Winds will back towards the south, increase, and become gusty ahead of and with the front. Peak gusts will push into upper gale force range and could occasionally gusty into lower storm force range, ie 40 to 50 kts. These winds will generate very steep fresh southerly swell that is hazardous for smaller craft vessels. In addition, this storm system will generate a large WNW swell train that will arrive shortly after the storm passes from Sunday night into early Tuesday. Swell of 16 to 24 feet at 16 to 18 seconds will then wash ashore, peaking Monday, and bring hazardous conditions in the surf zone and near harbor entrances with breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
530pm PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Synopsis
Light rain will continue.nue over the North Bay and along the coastal ranges this afternoon ahead of the upcoming atmospheric river. Rainfall will increase in coverage Sunday and be accompanied by gusty winds before shifting southward across the entire region Sunday night through early Monday morning. A slight chance of North Bay light rain Tuesday otherwise warming and drying trend as high pressure rebuilds.

As of 02:37pm PDT Saturday...Saturday afternoon continues the calm before the storm. A few light showers have been passing through the North Bay but the remaining rain amounts from this aren't adding up to much compared to Sunday's forecasted amounts. Expect conditions to remain calm until the late night, when the front begins to interact with the North Bay.

After considering the updated model and ensemble outputs as well as the inclusion of short-term, higher resolution models, the timing of the AR event has been shifted slightly later. The afternoon forecast update consisted mostly of tweaks in timing and some fine-tuning in rainfall amounts as well as adjustments in peak winds, but the bulk of the forecast remains on track.

Winds will quickly increase into the night for Sonoma Co and these stronger winds will continue.nue south ahead of the front. Expect the strongest winds ahead of the band of rain some strong gusts lingering well into the rain band itself. Max wind gust will range from 60 to 70 mph at the highest peaks, 40 to 50 mph around the Bay Area, and 35 to 45 mph around Monterey Bay and the Central Coast. The heaviest rains will be focused over higher elevations along the coast as well as higher elevations in western Sonoma Co.

The official forecast timing and rain amounts will roughly go as follows: North Bay: Early Sunday morning through Sunday evening Highest peaks 8-11" Foothills 6-8 Valleys 4-6"

East Bay and SF Peninsula: Late Sunday morning through Sunday night Higher elevations: 4-6" Lower elevations: 2-4"

South Bay and the Santa Cruz Mtns: Mid Sunday afternoon though late Sunday night. Highest Peaks 5-7" Foothills and Santa Cruz coast 2-4" Santa Clara Valley 1-2.50"

Monterey and San Benito Counties: Sunday evening through early Monday morning Highest Peaks along the Big Sur Coast 4-6" Coastal Monterey Co 2-4" Interior Monterey and San Benito counties 1-2.50"

These times and totals are subject to change but the forecast confidence is increasing as models update.

Ahead of the event, we recommend taking today as a day of preparation. Today is a perfect day to make sure you are ready for the strong winds, moderate to heavy rain, and the possibility of power outages. Charge your phone and battery back ups, tie down outdoor furniture and trash cans, check your emergency kit supplies, know where and how to get updates from your local emergency management, and clear storm drains and gutters.

Marine
as of 02:37pm PDT Saturday...A strong storm system will transit southward through the waters from late tonight through tomorrow night. Winds will back towards the south, increase, and become gusty ahead of and with the front. Peak gusts will push into upper gale force range and could occasionally gusty into lower storm force range, ie 40 to 50 kts. These winds will generate very steep fresh southerly swell that is hazardous for smaller craft vessels. In addition, this storm system will generate a large WNW swell train that will arrive shortly after the storm passes from Sunday night into early Tuesday. Swell of 16 to 24 feet at 16 to 18 seconds will then wash ashore, peaking Monday, and bring hazardous conditions in the surf zone and near harbor entrances with breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet.

Beaches
as of 12:30pm PDT Saturday...A strong, early season storm system arrives tomorrow and will result in significantly increased wave energy from late Sunday into early Tuesday as it arrives and after it passes. This wave energy will transition through the coastal waters from late Sunday into Tuesday, and peak on Monday. Swell of 16 to 24 feet at 16 to 18 seconds is forecast to arrive with the swell train as it peaks on Monday and result in a number of coastal hazards. These hazards include large breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet (higher at favored break points), increased risk of strong longshore and rip currents, increased risk of coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding, and enhanced coastal run up concerns due to the summer beach profiles in place. Due to the early arrival of these large waves, many beaches are still transitioning from their summer beach profiles and lack the features and steepness to resist larger wave run up on coasts. This means that more of this wave energy will have a chance to move onto the beach and overtake individuals, potentially injuring them, or pulling them into the cold ocean. Each year, people die at the coast due to these or similar ocean conditions. A high surf warning for the entire coast has been issued for this threat and is in effect from 11PM Sunday to 11AM Tuesday, with the highest risks once again at west to northwest facing beaches.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Tonight:
Wind Advisory...CAZ006-508>513-529 Wind Advisory...CAZ505>507 Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay
from 3 AM Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 0-10 nm
from 3 AM Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
from 3 AM Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3am
GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm
from 3 AM GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm from 3am
GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 AM GLW...SF Bay from 5 AM