Monterey Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds Up To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog This Morning.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw Around 2 Ft At 20 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...E Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw Around 2 Ft At 19 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw Around 2 Ft At 18 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw Around 2 Ft At 17 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft And Sw Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft And S Around 2 Ft. Locally Lower Winds And Seas Across Sheltered Portions Of The Bay.|
| 201 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020 |
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
A broad area of surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep breezy north to northwest winds over the northern waters through Monday evening. Generally light to locally moderate winds expected elsewhere. Mixed seas will persist with a shorter period northwest swell and a longer period southwest swell arriving today. Expect northwest swell to build late this week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
432am PDT Sunday September 20 2020
Warm temperatures will continue through today across the region. A mild cool down is forecast to follow during the first half the work week with seasonal conditions expected late in the week. Dry conditions will persist at least through part of next week.
as of 03:08am PDT Sunday...Both the Fort Ord and Bodega Bay Profilers reporting shallow depths this morning as the marine layer becomes compressed under the weak upper-level West Coast ridge. GOES-17 is already capturing the development of more low stratus and fog over the North Bay coast, while fog and low stratus have gotten more apparent from the San Mateo County coast down to Big Sur. Visibilities have also started falling along the Central Coast and the Salinas Valley, with Salinas reporting visibilities at 3/4 mile. As such, expecting for areas of patchy and dense fog to develop along the coast due to the shallow nature of this marine layer which should mix out by mid-morning. The interior will get a head start with diurnal heating but as soon as the coastal fog burns off temps will also steadily climb there. Expecting temps to be 5-8 degrees F warmer than yesterday in several interior locations, including San Jose and Livermore while coastal locations will run 3 to 5 degrees F warmer. As for air quality concerns, low to moderate levels of near-surface smoke associated with the August Complex have settled over parts of Napa County this morning. HRRR-smoke runs this morning picked up the northerly flow and continue to bring smoke down to both Napa and Sonoma counties throughout the morning, with elevated smoke potentially making it down to parts of Marin County and the Bay. Thankfully, winds will become lighter through the afternoon due to the upper-level ridging, which should diminish the possibility of smoke making it too far south.
For more details on air quality concentrations in your area, please visit AirNow and/or the Bay Area Air Quality District.
Water vapor imagery is picking up on the moisture associated with the subtle shortwave trough that will be making its way into the PAC NW during the first part of the upcoming workweek. As its axis moves over the CWA Monday and Tuesday, expect a cooling trend, especially across the interior, that will bring temps back to seasonal averages. These seasonal conditions look forecast to continue through the second-half of the work week as a more pronounced upper-level trough moves into the PAC NW during that time. GFS run brings probability of precipitation as far south as parts of Northern California, but not looking like precipitation will make it as far south as our CWA. Nevertheless, the passage of both the shortwave and the upper-level trough will greatly help increase marine layer depths. These depths along with cooler temps will help bring better humidity recoveries to our region, which is good news for burn areas.
ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ENS, GEFS, and CMC ensemble members continue to suggest the possibility for an offshore wind event next weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty in the latest GFS run regarding the fate of the upper-level trough during the second half of the workweek; the run deepens it into a cut-off low over the Great Basin and ejects it into the high Northern Plains sometime after Sunday, while the ECMWF deepens the trough. As such, variation in the strength of the upper-level ridge that looks forecast to build off the coast. Any subtle variations in this set up could substantially increase the likelihood of the offshore wind event verifying. 925 hPa winds on the GFS pick up on the wind shift across the North and East Bay hills Friday through Sunday night, while the ECMWF suggests a weaker offshore signature. For now, will have to wait until there is greater confidence in the medium- range models. Stay tuned.
as of 02:01am PDT Sunday...A broad area of surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep breezy north to northwest winds over the northern waters through Monday evening. Generally light to locally moderate winds expected elsewhere. Mixed seas will persist with a shorter period northwest swell and a longer period southwest swell arriving today. Expect northwest swell to build late this week.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM