Pigeon Point to Point Pinos CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. Scattered Showers Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Evening And Overnight. |
| Thu...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 14 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt, Easing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Se Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Se Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon...Se Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...E Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 946pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 Issued at 745pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 The 00Z weather balloon found dry air in the low levels beneath a quite deep moist layer. The current cloud deck extends from roughly 13,000 ft to 33,000 ft. The radar is showing some good returns over the water, but the upper level low is basically just spinning in place after being abandoned by the jet stream. There is still a slight chance for some of this light rain to reach the coast and push inland through the night, but it will be battling the dry air below 700 mb. .SHORT TERM... Issued at 116pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 (This afternoon through Thursday) Generally quiet with largely mild conditions this afternoon across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Fog continues to slowly erode at this hour, with predominantly mid/upper level clouds continuing to overspread the area. Our upper low continues churn and WV/RAP mesoanalysis trends indicates that it continues to make it slow trek to the south and east. This is in line with current thinking. Radar imagery this afternoon has shown a couple of brief attempts at a loosely organized bands of what is largely virga/fall streaks. While the trends haven't been encouraging, satellite imagery indicates still some mid-level cumuliform clouds/instability that may swing to the NE and give us another shot as sprinkles or very light rain after 4pm this evening and continuing through the pre-dawn hours on Thursday and this seems in alignment with latest short term guidance. As noted this morning, Probability of Precipitation of 20-40% are advertised which remains along the higher end of the near/short term hi-resolution model guidance. Rain amounts at this time are anticipated to average around a few hundredths of an inch with the higher end scenario (10% chance of occuring) advertising a larger Quantitative Precipitation Forecast footprint (light rain as far as the North Bay) and up to a tenth of an inch across the higher terrain of Central Coast. As the main upper low continues to pivot eastward, subtle 700mb WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) may lift northward through the Central Valley and into the North Bay. While some orographic ascent cannot be ruled out along the eastern slopes of higher terrain, the dry low levels should translate to a low probability for measurable precipitation here, even though radar may look rather ominous. Otherwise, fog, albeit limited due to the cloud cover, may continue overnight and into early Thursday morning. However, additional low level mixing thanks to the elevated wind field make keep the footprint smaller than previous nights. Long Term Issued at 116pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Thursday evening will feature a subtle PV anomaly will ripple through the Great Basin and help sweep the initial upper low eastward. In its' wake, mid/upper level ridging is forecast. This will promote surface pressure rises across the Great Basin and tighten local MSLP gradients across the region. More importantly, the 925mb flow will increase with even coarser guidance advertising 30-40 knots out of the north through the Sacramento Valley. The synoptic scale background/pattern recognition in tandem with the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) would suggest an opportunity to alter messaging to advertise a noticeable uptick in winds, largely across the higher terrain of the North Bay and East Bay Hills. 2km PG&E WRF cross sections also indicate the potential for mountain wave type activity near and downwind of Mt. Saint Helena which could help enhance wind gusts. Given the highly localized nature of these phenomenon, have opted for targeted edits across the Mayacamas and higher terrain of the East Bay such that wind gusts reflect a blend of some of the higher end NBM percentiles. While fuel moistures have dried some, ERC values remain safely below critical fire weather thresholds. That said, please always be mindful that winter fuels could still promote some fire growth/smoke production. Overall, the themes in the extended forecast have not changed much. Ridging is anticipated to resume this weekend and largely dominate the weather pattern across the region through the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, about one-quarter of the multi-model ensemble advertises more vigorous troughing across the Pacific NW. This would dampen out the ridge such that mid/upper level flow becomes more southwesterly, potentially opening the door for a disturbance or two. While the official forecast paints broad Probability of Precipitation across most areas (minus the far interior Central Coast), there still remains some model variability with some NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) "clusters" indicating little to no chance for precipitation. We'll continue to delve deeper into the model guidance with time. Marine (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 925pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 Moderate seas with gentle to moderate breezes will continue through Thursday morning when winds will begin to increase with fresh northerly breezes and building seas into Friday. Near gale force winds from Friday morning through late Friday night over the northern outer waters will result in hazardous conditions for small craft. Seas will begin to gradually ease Saturday afternoon and remain light to moderate into the beginning of next week. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Thursday to 3am PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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