Pigeon Point to Point Pinos CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Se Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 3 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 To 3 Ft At 18 Seconds.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell W 3 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 To 3 Ft At 18 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 2 To 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 2 To 3 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Wed...Sw Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds And S 2 To 3 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds Up To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 2 To 3 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell W Around 2 Ft And S 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Mixed Swell W Around 2 Ft And S Around 2 Ft.|
|200 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021 .Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries... A low pressure system off the coast of California will allow light to moderate southerly winds to prevail across the coastal waters through Tuesday. As the low shifts position on Wednesday, expect west to northwest winds to gradually return into late this week. Locally breezy conditions expected this afternoon over the San Francisco Bay near the Golden Gate and northward through the Delta. Seas remain mixed with a short period northwest swell and a weaker longer period southerly swell. An additional northwest swell will arrive towards the end of the week.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
845pm PDT Monday Jun 21 2021
Near seasonal weather conditions will persist across the region through midweek. Periods of night and morning low clouds and possible coastal drizzle will give way to mostly sunny conditions each afternoon. A warming and drying trend looks possible by the upcoming weekend.
as of 08:45pm PDT Monday...A mid/upper level low about 300 miles west-northwest of San Francisco resulted in southerly winds along the coast this afternoon. With this, stratus dissipated along many coastal areas allowing for a few degrees of warming today compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, the interior saw 10-15 deg F of cooling as the air mass aloft cooled significantly. Additionally, a deep marine layer remains in place across the region and will eventually allow for low clouds to spread well inland again tonight through Tuesday morning. This pattern will be favorable once again for patchy coastal drizzle tonight within the deepening marine layer. With this said, the ongoing forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated this evening. For complete details and a look at the potential for another warming trend this upcoming weekend, please see the previous forecast discussion.
back to the coast giving way to inland sunshine this afternoon. Even a few coastal spots are seeing more sunshine than 24 hours ago. However, despite the sunshine temperatures are running cooler than Sunday with some interior spots 10 degrees colder. The reason for the cooldown? An upper level low spinning off the coast. The longwave pattern aloft shows a well definite upper low spinning slowly to the NE just west of Point Reyes. This upper low helped to re-establish the marine layer and bring much cooler air to the region. This upper low will be the main driver of the weather in the Bay Area through about Thursday. Therefore, the cooldown noticed today will continue through Wednesday. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s/70s at the coast and 70s/80s inland. Night and morning clouds will be common as well. Model guidance continues to show precipitation over the coastal waters near the upper low and along the coast. Probably not showers per se, but more likely drizzle. Have added drizzle to the forecast for the night/morning hours through Thursday morning.
By Thursday a longwave pattern shift begins to develop. The upper level low is trying to continue its trajectory to the NE, but it is met with resistance from high pressure. A robust area of high pressure begins to develop over the PacNW, in essence blocking the upper low. The upper low then slowly meanders to the SE and inland on Friday. As this happens, temperatures will begin to slowly warm on Thursday and Friday by 3-5 degrees.
The longer range guidance was kinda split for the overall pattern next weekend with some models showing a ridge and other much less so. Today's 12Z runs are coming into better alignment with a robust ridge over the PacNW and NorCal. The building high pressure looks to carry a toasty airmass with it, especially north of the Bay Area into S Oregon. Locally, 850mb temperatures approach almost 30C, which if it verifies would likely trigger more heat related hazards. Followed more of the ensemble approach and calibrated National Blend of Models and have increased temps next Saturday through Monday with Sunday being the warmest. As it stands now, 105-110 degrees across the far interior seem plausible. Not only would this increase heat risk concerns, but fire weather concerns will increase as well.
Side note- if you're a weather watcher for home and look at model data online take note that a few of us at the office have noticed what appears to be unrealistic values on 2m model temperature forecasts. In other words, seeing 115-120 deg for area near Cloverdale/Lake Berryessa is not realistic.
as of 08:45pm PDT Monday...Light to moderate southerly winds across the coastal waters will last through Tuesday. Northwest winds will gradually return starting Wednesday, with wind speeds remaining light to moderate through the end of the week. Locally breezy conditions expected tuesday afternoon near the Golden Gate. Winds over the San Fransisco Bay's will be weaker tomorrow afternoon when compared to this past weekend. Seas remain mixed with a short period northwest swell and a weaker longer period southerly swell. An additional northwest swell will arrive towards the end of the week.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM