Marine Weather Net

Northern Puerto Rico out 10NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ712 Forecast Issued: 929 PM AST Tue Nov 05 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 11 Seconds And East 3 Feet At 8 Seconds. Scattered Showers Late This Evening And Early Morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous Showers Late.
Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 9 Seconds. Numerous Showers, Mainly In The Morning.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 7 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 7 Feet At 9 Seconds. Scattered Showers In The Evening, Then Numerous Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 8 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet, Building To 9 To 11 Feet, Occasionally To 14 Feet In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Northeast 8 Feet At 10 Seconds, Becoming Northeast 9 Feet At 10 Seconds. Numerous Showers.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 10 To 11 Feet, Occasionally To 14 Feet, Subsiding To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: Northeast 9 Feet At 10 Seconds. Scattered Showers.
Friday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 8 Feet At 10 Seconds. Scattered Showers.
Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Scattered Showers.
Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Scattered Showers In The Morning.
Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Scattered Showers.
Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Numerous Showers.
Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Numerous Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
523pm AST Tuesday Nov 5 2024

Synopsis
Additional showers are expected later tonight and overnight, mainly in the eastern and northern sectors of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Wet and unstable weather conditions are anticipated to persist over the next few days. This pattern will start with an upper- level trough and a surface frontal boundary through midweek, followed by the proximity of an area of low pressure on Thursday and a strong tropical wave over the weekend, heightening the risks of flooding and lightning. A break in the weather may be possible by early next week. Additional hazard risks include strong winds, particularly during the passage of the low-pressure system and tropical wave, leading to dangerous marine and life-threatening rip currents conditions.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday... Radar and satellite images showed conditions ranging from partly cloudy to cloudy across the islands. During the morning hours, rain showers and thunderstorms developed, especially in areas of the metropolitan area and the eastern part of Puerto Rico. In general, radar estimates ranged from 1 to 2.5 inches, with a maximum of up to 7 inches recorded in the municipality of Naguabo. This resulted in several flood advisories and flash flood warnings. By the afternoon, more concentrated rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are being observed in the southwest of Puerto Rico due to the northeast wind flow. Additional showers are expected later tonight and overnight, mainly in the eastern and northern sectors of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, as northeasterly winds push the shearline over the forecast area.

The rest of the short-term period remains on track, with wet and unstable weather conditions anticipated to persist over the next few days. A frontal passage (FROPA) on Wednesday will bring drier air to the region, but enough moisture and atmospheric instability may still lead to showers and thunderstorms, especially in the interior and southwestern areas of Puerto Rico.

Some uncertainty remains in the forecast as the upper-level trough deepens further and as we monitor the eventual positioning of a surface-induced low that is forecast to develop near the northern Leeward Islands by Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area, and it has a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next 7 days. Some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic, north of our region. Regardless of model inconsistencies or differing solutions, it looks like Thursday could bring potential impacts across the forecast area, including urban and small stream flooding, flash flooding in flood-prone areas, and rapid river rises. With saturated soils, there is also an increased risk of landslides and rockfalls in steep terrain. The flooding risk will likely be elevated. We recommend the residents and visitors to closely monitor the forecast for possible watches, advisories, or warnings issued by our local office.

Long Term
Friday through Tuesday... ./FROMIssued at 520am AST Monday Nov 5 2024/

Wet and unstable weather conditions are forecasted to persist throughout the long-term period, mainly through the weekend, resulting in a limited to elevated risk of flooding and lightning hazards. On Friday, local weather will be influenced by an area of low pressure currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, which has a low (20 percent) chance of tropical formation over the next seven days. In contrast, the weather on Saturday and Sunday will be shaped by the movement of a strong tropical wave and its associated moisture field, marking the wettest period in the next 3 to 8 days. While there is low confidence that slightly drier conditions will enhance the weather by early next week, model guidance suggests a reduction in above-normal precipitable water values across the region. Warm to locally hot temperatures are expected, with the highest readings likely occurring early in the forecast period due to anticipated southerly winds.

AVIATION... (18Z TAFs)

VFR conds at all terminals durg prd. However, SCT SHRA/Isold TSRA psbl over TJBQ/TISX/TIST til 04/22z and again after 06/06Z. Brief MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) expected for these TAF sites due to CIGS, at TJBQ til 05/23Z. psbl IFR with TSRA. Mtn Top obscurations across the central mtn range and E interior of PR. SFC wnds fm NE 10-20 kts with HIR gusts. LLVL wnds veering fm ESE-SW nr FL110 becoming NNW-N above FL340. Max winds 37- 42 kt between FL430-450.

Marine
A surface high pressure building from the western to central Atlantic will promote fresh to locally strong northeast winds through midweek. Increased thunderstorm activity is expected over the next few days. Increasing winds and pulses of northerly swells, due to the proximity of a trough of low pressure, will bring hazardous seas, particularly during the second half of the week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect from tomorrow morning through at least Friday afternoon for the offshore and coastal Atlantic waters, and local passages.

Beach Forecast

A moderate risk of rip currents should persist tonight and Wednesday across most beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Increasing winds and seas will elevate the risk back to high by Wednesday night onwards. For more details, please consult the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6pm AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6am Wednesday to 2pm AST Friday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 2pm AST Friday for AMZ712-716-741.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6am AST Friday for AMZ723.