Northern Puerto Rico out 10NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Numerous Showers. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Numerous Showers With Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 943pm AST Thu September 28 2023 Northeast steering winds will continue to promote an advective weather pattern across the Atlantic waters. Therefore, passing showers will move at times across the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico, as well as across portions of Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No change from the previous short-term forecast. Choppy to hazardous seas will continue across the Atlantic waters and portions of the Anegada Passage. Lingering swell from Philippe will continue to cause life-threatening rip currents across the north-facing beaches of the islands. Marine Moderate northeasterly trades are expected through the end of the week. Lingering NE swell from TC Philippe will cause seas to range between 5 and 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for these waters. Across the rest of the Atlantic coastal waters and passages, seas are expected to range between 4 and 6 feet, and small craft operators should continue exercise caution. /issued 358pm AST Thu September 28 2023/ SYNOPSIS... Light northeast winds will prevail for the next few days due to the presence of Tropical Storm Philippe east of the islands. Although the official track from the National Hurricane Center does not show the center of the storm reaching the islands, bands of showers and thunderstorms may move in this weekend. The offshore Atlantic waters will be hazardous as well. The long term forecast will depend on how much moisture from the tropical storm will reach the islands, so uncertainty is high at this point. SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... The wind flow remains from the northeast across the northeastern Caribbean, mainly due to the presence of Tropical Storm Philippe well northeast of the Leeward Islands. Even with this northeast flow, it was really hot again today, with heat indices well above 108 degrees in most of the urban and coastal areas in the islands. Skies were blue in the morning, but clouds began to develop after noon. In the late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms developed across the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, and from Saint Thomas into Vieques. These showers are expected to taper off just after sunset. Later tonight, as the northeast wind flow continues, passing showers will develop over the Atlantic waters, moving into portions of northern and eastern Puerto Rico and over the U.S. Virgin Islands. There is, however, an area of slightly less moisture approaching, so rainfall accumulations are not expected to be too significant. Then on Friday, it will be mostly seasonal with another round of showers developing in the southwestern quadrant in the afternoon. On Saturday, one of the outer bands from Tropical Storm Philippe may move in, so an increase in showers and thunderstorms is anticipated, first for the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico and also for the Virgin Islands, and later in the day, reaching the southwest areas of Puerto Rico. On both Friday and Saturday, the steering flow will be generally light, so showers could last longer, increasing the risk for flooding. Thunderstorms could also bring gusty winds and frequent lightning. Despite the northeast flow, temperatures are relentless and still running above the climatological values. In fact,925 mb temperatures should continue into early October. This combined with plenty of moisture in the lower-most levels of the atmosphere will maintain areas with heat indices above 108 degrees. The current long-term forecast follows Philippe's 11pm AST forecast track, which Uncertainty is still high for the long-term forecast due to the possible proximity of the remnants of Phillipe. According to the latest official trajectory from the National Hurricane Center, Philippe, now located east of the northern Leeward islands, will be near the E of the U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday or early Monday. According to the official track, Phillipe is expected to weaken as it moves northwestern, slowing even more. In this evolving pattern, veering winds will be present from Sunday into Tuesday as the system moves over or near the area. Additionally, due to the proximity of the moisture field, more frequent showers are forecasted starting on Sunday at least until early Tuesday. Shower activity will be moderate to strong occasionally, increasing the potential for flood and mudslides, especially across step areas. Additionally, rainfall accumulations during the period would range from 1 to 3 inches. Although today, the forecast calls for a wet pattern, variations in the official track from the National Hurricane Center might result in drastic changes to the long-term forecast. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor the progress of this system for future updates. The rest of the long-term forecast would depend on Philippe's remnants over the Atlantic. AVIATION... SCT lyrs nr FL025...FL050 en route btw islands with mstly Isold SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/Isold TSRA possible over ctrl interior and SW PR with VCTS mainly at TJMZ/TJPS and VCSH at TJSJ/USVI terminals til 27/23Z. Wnds fm NE 10-12 kts becoming calm to lgt/vrb after 27/23z. No sig operational weather impact attm. Marine A northeasterly swell from Tropical Storm Philippe will maintain seas around 7 feet for the offshore Atlantic waters. These conditions may stretch into the weekend, depending on the track and intensity of the storm. Rip current risk will be high for the northern coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Croix through tonight. .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6am AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6am AST Friday for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2am GMT Saturday for AMZ711. |
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