Marine Weather Net

Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ755 Forecast Issued: 934 PM EST Sun Dec 05 2021

Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth.
Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
934 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

High pressure will hang on over North Florida tonight. A weakening cold front will dive south through Alabama on tomorrow, turning up stationary near the Northwest Florida coastline on Tuesday. The front will lift back northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday, pushed along by a freshening southerly breeze over the waters. A brief turn to northerly breezes is possible Wednesday night as the front wavers back south. It will dissipate on Thursday, so winds will quickly clock around from the southeast and south later Thursday and Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1234am EST Monday Dec 6 2021

49pm EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Monday]... Fog will once again become widespread late tonight, and continue through the morning hours. Expect visibilities to reduce down to 1/4 mile through the region. Winds at the surface will remain southerly to southwesterly throughout the day on Monday. With an approaching cold front during the day on Monday, the fog may break earlier in the morning compared to the last several days as surface winds ahead of the front will allow for quicker mixing in the morning. Overall the best rain chances will be in the evening as the front approaches; however, the highest and best chances for seeing precipitation are expected to remain in SE Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The precipitation associated with the front is expected to completely dissipate as it reaches the Georgia/Alabama border late in the evening on Monday. This is mainly because the upper level forcing for the front is expected to lift well north and west of the region causing the front to stall across western portions of the forecast area. With plentiful mixing ahead of the front on Monday, and an earlier dissipation of fog, high temperatures are expected to be well above normal with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s across the region. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50s for most across the area.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]... A weakening cold front will move through the Wiregrass Region and into Northwest Florida on Monday evening. There may be a gusty line of convection upon approach to Coffee County, AL, but the line will be weakening and dying as it continues southeast.

Fog on Monday night will be more confined to the eastern Big Bend and Nature Coast, thanks to the turn to northerly winds elsewhere.

The front will turn up stationary along the NW FL coast over to near Valdosta on Tuesday morning. This feature will set up a wide range of high temperatures across the area from lower 60s north of Blakely to 75+ degree readings down near Cross City. Cannot rule a little light rain, mainly along and north of the front as the upper low currently over the Gulf of California opens up and zips across across MS, AL, and GA.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
That stationary front will come more to life on Wednesday, as a fairly deep but low amplitude fast-moving upper trough pushes across the eastern U.S. As the tail end of the trough interacts with the leftover frontal boundary, rain and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two will blossom over the area. The heaviest rain will remain up over Alabama and Georgia, with the rain weakening as it enters our Florida counties later in the day. Guidance varies on rainfall amounts from about 0.5" to about 1.5", with lesser amounts down toward the Nature Coast. The good news is that the number of ensemble members showing a low-end severe threat on Wednesday has dwindled to nearly negligible.

The front will again waver north on Thursday. For Friday and Saturday, the forecast area will be squarely in the warm sector, with much above normal temperatures expected. Dewpoints in the 60s and southerly flow suggest that nighttime and morning fog will again become an issue.

A big upper trough over the western U.S. late this week should move east next weekend. There are plenty of possibilities for how amplified, how potent, or how far north this trough will eject. Nonetheless, the notion is enough to support a bump in rain chances around Saturday or Saturday night. Less anomalously warm weather would follow on Sunday.

Marine
Areas of sea fog will again develop this evening over the cooler nearshore waters. The coolest waters are along the coast in northern Apalachee Bay, so that is where fog is most likely.

From CWF synopsis...High pressure will hang on over North Florida tonight. A weakening cold front will dive south through Alabama on Monday, turning up stationary near the Northwest Florida coastline on Tuesday. The front will lift back northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday, pushed along by a freshening southerly breeze over the waters. A brief turn to northerly breezes is possible Wednesday night as the front wavers back south. It will dissipate on Thursday, so winds will quickly clock around from the southeast and south later Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather

Stable conditions with a moist conditions near the surface will again lead to many areas of fog on Monday morning. A dying cold front will slip through southeast Alabama and into Northwest Florida on Monday evening, trimming the target area for fog on Tuesday morning to the eastern Big Bend and Nature Coast. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will blossom on Wednesday along a stationary front, bringing this weeks best chance of a wetting rain.

Hydrology
No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

Rises on area rivers are expected during the second half of the week ahead, thanks to a couple of wet weather systems passing across Alabama and Georgia on Wednesday and again around Friday or Saturday. However, dry weather over the past month means rivers are running near base flow. Rivers have the capacity to handle the expected 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over Alabama and Georgia without risk of flooding.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST /8am CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for Brooks- Decatur-Early-Grady-Lowndes-Miller-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am CST Monday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston.

GM...None.