Marine Weather Net

Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ755 Forecast Issued: 134 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...South Winds 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
156pm EDT Sat May 21 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Most showers and storms will dissipate after sunset, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out overnight near the coast. Another muggy night is on tap with lows in the 70s. A few patches of fog cannot be ruled out tonight, primarily in the Florida and Alabama counties, but left out of the grids for now due to low confidence.

On Sunday, an abundantly moist airmass remains entrenched across our area thanks to deep southerly flow. This along with daytime heating will set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop, aided by weak perturbations embedded in the southerly flow. Showers and storms may begin developing during the late morning near the coast, then gradually spread inland through the afternoon. A weak shortwave will approach from the west during the afternoon, which may enhance rain chances over the western parts of our area. With CAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg and DCAPE around 900 and cool mid-level temperatures, strong to briefly severe storms are a possibility yet again, and the Storm Prediction Center has outlined out entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5). The main threats with stronger storms will be potentially damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail. Highs will be in the upper half of the 80s. With the very humid air in place, heat index values may reach near 100 in the southeastern Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]... The wet pattern continues on Monday as a front stalled to the north and an impulse rounding the western edge of the Atlantic ridge provide foci for shower and thunderstorm development in an already warm and moist airmass. Showers and thunderstorms will likely start out over the waters late Sunday night into early Monday morning before spreading inland throughout the day Monday. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning will be possible.

Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday
On Tuesday the aforementioned stalled front to the north lifts further northward as a warm front as a low pressure system over the central Plains begins to move eastward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with the greatest coverage over SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Rain chances increase again Thursday into Friday as a cold front pushes through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, and we'll have to keep an eye on the severe potential with gusty winds on Friday. Conditions in the wake of the front aren't expected to be much cooler, but they will be drier and hopefully more comfortable heading into the holiday weekend. High temperatures through the long term remain steady in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures start out in the upper 60s to low 70s before falling into the low to mid 60s behind the front.

Marine
Breezy onshore flow around 15 to 20 knots is expected to continue for the next several days and keep seas around 4 to 6 feet. Winds and seas are expected to subside somewhat early next week before returning to near-cautionary midweek through the rest of the period. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the period, with the greatest coverage expected over the next couple of days. A cold front may push across the waters late next week.

Fire Weather

Transport winds will remain generally out of the south around 10-15 mph over the next several days, though may decrease somewhat heading into Tuesday over the western portions of the area. Higher mixing heigheights in the Florida Panhandle may promote briefly high dispersions early Sunday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, particularly on Sunday and Monday with slightly lower rain chances on Tuesday.

Hydrology
A warm and moist airmass over the area will continue to allow for isolated pockets of heavy rainfall within showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Although a few spots of urban and street flooding are possible, widespread flooding and river flooding are not anticipated.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.