Marine Weather Net

Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SATURDAY

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ755 Forecast Issued: 213 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Rain In The Morning. Thunderstorms Likely Through The Day. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Monday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Thunderstorms Likely And Rain In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.
Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night.
Wednesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
213 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas. Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these conditions.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
212pm EDT Fri July 3 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will slowly diminish during the overnight hours. Rain chances are still fairly high into the evening hours across the Florida big bend and adjacent areas where colliding outflow boundaries may allow convection to persist for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, guidance shows weak upper level troughing persisting across the region. A gradient in deep moisture is expected to set up across the forecast area with some drier air temporarily moving into the northeastern part of the area. Farther south across the Florida panhandle and big bend, precipitable water values will likely remain over 2 inches. Thus, the official forecast will show higher rain chances across the southern half of the area where a tropical airmass is expected to be in place with some upper level support given the weak troughing. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night through Monday]... A mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley will maintain a moist air mass under southerly flow, which will be lifted by a surface trough and the sea-breeze circulation. Precipitable Water values will be around ~2.0 inches, which is around 2 Standard Deviations above normal. The Probability of Precip will be ~80 pct both days, which is well above climatology. The heavies precipitation should occur on Sunday, with a low to mid-level convergence axis translating northward across the region. Considerable cloudiness will limit instability, with high temperatures averaging 3-5 degrees below seasonal norms, so the main concern is heavy rainfall (see the hydrology section at the bottom).

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]... The mid-level trough will gradually shift northeastward as an extension of the subtropical high builds into the Gulf of Mexico. The trend will be for the Probability of Precip to gradually decrease from south to north, ranging from 70-80 pct on Tuesday to 40-50 pct on Friday (closer to climatology). Deep moisture will remain across the region, so the potential for heavy rainfall continues, especially in the vicinity of any surface boundaries. The severe weather threat looks to be of the isolated/pulse-type through the period, which is what we would expect for this time of year. But this will have to be monitored with proximity of the mid-level trough and potential for sheared low-level flow, as a slightly stronger wind field could over perform. As temperatures increase during the mid to late week above seasonal levels, heat indices in excess of 105 degrees are possible, with highest confidence over the FL Panhandle.

Marine
Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas. Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these conditions.

Fire Weather
Outside of low dispersions this weekend, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast over the next several days as a low pressure system stalls over our area. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible throughout the weekend. Currently, there is a low risk for excessive rainfall (<10%) as depicted by WPCs 3 day excessive rainfall outlook. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible through the next 5 to 7 days. Isolated amounts could be higher, especially as the area of low pressure slowly meanders across our area over the weekend and into next week. The main impacts would be minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.