Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Patchy Dense Fog Early This Evening. Areas Of Dense Fog Late This Evening And Overnight. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots, Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 3 Feet After Midnight. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 333pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 321pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicts two shortwave troughs moving through the split flow regime; a northern shortwave moving across the northern tiered states and a southern shortwave/closed low moving through Texas. Flow out ahead of this feature into the southeast US is SSW in the low levels, to WSW in the upper levels. A cold front currently stretches from the midwest southwest towards central and southern Texas. A line of showers and thunderstorms accompany the front moving eastward. The big change this morning was SPC's placement of the marginal (level 1 of 5) and slight risk (level 2 of 5) further eastward into our CWA. The marginal risk extends out to Tifton to Apalachicola line with the slight risk just west of Albany to Port St Joe and areas westward. Southern stream shortwave will move east through MS/AL tonight then off the east coast later Thursday. Models have trended a stronger trough and thus higher chances for severe weather and thus the eastward advance of the marginal/slight risk. The atmosphere ahead of the line will be characterized by instability of 800-1200 J/kg cape, and sufficient shear with 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60 knots. Area point soundings show mid level lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and largely SSW to WSW winds through the column with SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Given the background environment and the linear nature of the squall line as it approaches our area, strong to damaging winds would be the main threat followed by isolated tornadoes. Hail threat is low given the linear nature and less than optimum lapse rates. The severe threat decreases with eastward extent towards the southeast Big Bend as the environment will not be quite as favorable by the time the line reaches these areas. As far as timing, earliest reasonable timeframe for the line to reach southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle is 2-3am ET with the most likely timeframe of 4-6AM ET. The line will continue marching eastward through the morning hours and exit the southeast Big Bend in the afternoon or 1-2pm ET. Behind the front, winds will be rather breezy gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Temperatures will be in the 60s for much of the night Wednesday night. Thursday's temperatures will likely remain steady west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers, but east of the rivers, they'll rise to the 70s before falling in the afternoon behind the front. Long Term (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 321pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 Winds turn easterly to southeasterly Friday as high pressure moves through the southern Appalachians then off the east coast by Saturday. Highs Friday won't change much from Thursday with readings in the 70s. With SErly flow returning heading into Saturday, high temperatures jump back into the 80s as well as low end rain chances as moisture rebounds into the southeast US. Rain chances continue to increase Sunday ahead of a strong cold front on tap Monday. Behind early next week's cold front, another cold shot will arrive beginning Monday night. For Monday and Tuesday nights, there is a medium chance (30-50%) across our Alabama and Georgia counties of temperatures of 36 or lower which, if combined with light winds and moisture, could pose a threat of a late season frost. Chances for a freeze either night is low (30% or less). This would be particularly impactful to agricultural interests, especially for those who have begun planting early. Keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine Issued at 321pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 A cold front will move through the coastal waters beginning late tonight along the Emerald coast to Thursday afternoon along the Forgotten and Nature coast. South winds will become moderate to strong northerly winds behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with locally strong winds, waterspouts, and cloud to surface lightning. A small craft advisory remains for waters west of Apalachicola with possibly an eastward extension into offshore waters west of Suwanee River Thursday night. Winds will decrease Friday while clocking to the east then southeast heading into the weekend. Fire Weather Issued at 321pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 A cold front will move through the area Thursday with a line of showers and storms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts and dangerous lightning strikes. Winds shift out of the north-northwest behind the front, still remaining breezy with high dispersions expected. Transport winds shift out of the east on Friday around 10- 20 mph. Dispersions will be fair to good Friday. RH values remain above critical levels, dropping into the 30s in the afternoon. The next cold front appears to arrive early next week. Hydrology Issued at 321pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 Most likely rainfall totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch with this system. The reasonable high-end totals are around 1 to 1.5 inches. Only light rain totals are expected over the weekend into early next week. Regardless, this wouldn't be enough for significant drought relief or for flooding concerns. For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 7pm CDT Thursday for GMZ735. Small Craft Advisory from 7am Thursday to 10am CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770-772. |
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