Marine Weather Net

Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ755 Forecast Issued: 1103 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.
Tuesday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: West 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet In The Afternoon. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1101am EDT Monday May 27 2024

...New

Issued at 1056am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Our 12z sounding this morning showed a rather impressive elevated mixed layer (EML) with mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, which is very impressive for this part of the country. However, there is a good bit of dry air in the mid and low levels as well as a capping inversion around 800 mb. This makes sense as farther south, the influence of the ridge is still present. However, an approaching shortwave and diurnal heating could erode any inversion farther north. We still expect that we'll be plenty unstable with about 30-35 kt deep layer shear and 850-1100 J/kg of DCAPE. The question remains how much forcing will we have. If we have less forcing, there may be fewer storms overall, and more forcing means greater coverage of storms. Regardless, any storms that do develop in this environment will be capable of becoming strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary severe concerns. Frequent lightning will accompany all storms today.

Rain chances were tweaked, mainly in the Florida Panhandle later this afternoon and evening where the hi-res guidance suggests that storms may eventually move into. Storm motion today will generally be east to southeast. High temperatures were also nudged upward a bit, mainly in the southern and eastern parts of the area where a bit more sunshine is starting to break through.

Near Term
(Today and tonight) Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Overall, another warm to hot afternoon is expected with temperatures pushing into the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the area. The concern with today's forecast is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later this morning and into the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from a line that extends from northern Walton County northeastward through Tifton and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from just north of Panama City through Tallahassee and just south of Valdosta. Any storms that move through later this morning and into the afternoon and/or are able to develop later today will have the potential of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Today's thunderstorm potential is highly conditional on what happens upstream of the region early this morning. Most Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) are in decent agreement on the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) continuing to dive southeast through Mississippi and Alabama this morning. However, they begin to differ on just how far south the MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) can make it and whether any storms can develop in its wake. If the MCS holds together through the morning, it is forecast to arrive in our southeastern Alabama counties as early as 10-11AM CDT before pushing southeast into the rest of the area in the afternoon. This is during peak heating hours, so there will be plenty of energy available for these storms to continue. One limiting factor is the fact the bulk of the upper-level support is expected to remain north of our area. Still, forecast soundings show 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg surface based CAPE along with Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) between 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg. Values that high coupled with some mid-level dry air support the possibility of damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will generally be between 7 to 7.5 C/km, which will support the potential for large hail within any of the stronger storms.

Later tonight, a weak cold front is forecast to push through most of the region outside of the southeast Florida Big Bend. Temperatures won't fall a whole lot tonight, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, as the drier air will take a while longer to push into the region.

.SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

In the wake of the weak late season cold frontal passage late Monday night, a drier air mass will trickle in across the region on Tuesday. Precipitable Water (PW) values will dry out well below 1.5 inches, which will suppress attempts at afternoon convection.

Am suspicious of the NBM's dry forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Most guidance increases PW values (Precipitable Water values) on Wednesday, albeit holding them a little below 1.5 inches. However, we will be under cyclonic 500 mb flow, and some guidance members are painting a shortwave rippling across the region on Wednesday. Perhaps this will manifest itself as a leftover MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) from an earlier thunderstorm complex well off to the west. Seabreeze boundaries will also spread inland in the afternoon. This should present a few ways to focus convection, if we can get enough moisture. While most GEFS ensemble members are dry on Wednesday, there are a few that produce moderate instability and respectable Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Have therefore at least included slight chance PoPs, which is supported by GFS- and NAM-based MOS guidance values along and west of the Flint River.

Long Term
(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Beyond Wednesday night through next weekend, the forecast area will lie near a substantial north-south moisture gradient, with drier air to the north and moister air to the south. This comes as surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley on Friday night off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast by Sunday. This will cause our low- level flow to clock around more easterly and perhaps southeasterly over the course of next weekend. Given our proximity to the moisture gradient, small differences in its north-south position have caused GEFS ensemble members to show a large range of possible PW values, ranging from very moist to very dry. Looking at trends in guidance for different runs over the last couple days, there may be a trend toward less and less drying the air mass late this week and next weekend. While the GEFS ensemble means keep PW values (Precipitable Water values) in the drier 1.3 to 1.4 inch range late this week and next weekend, there is a large number of ensemble members up in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. Given the seabreeze to focus convection in the presence of enough moisture and instability, the latest forecast has slightly nudged up Probability of Precipitation more squarely into the 20-30 percent range heading into next weekend.

Marine
Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Moderate southwest breezes will prevail through this evening, in advance of a weak cold front that will enter the waters early Tuesday morning. Westerly breezes will prevail behind the front on Tuesday, before gradually clocking around northerly by late Tuesday night. Though general northerly winds will continue through Wednesday night, nearshore seabreeze effects will be at play in the afternoon hours. The southern periphery of high pressure will bridge down the Southeast Atlantic coast on Friday night, bringing a marked turn and increase in easterly flow.

Fire Weather
Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Good dispersions are forecast this afternoon along and east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly in Alabama and Georgia, this afternoon and could produce strong, erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning. A weak cold front arrives tonight and will lead to drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with MinRH values generally between 30 to 40 percent each afternoon. Dispersions will be high for much of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hydrology
Issued at 426am EDT Monday May 27 2024

New flooding along the Suwannee River is possible this week, as last weeks floodwaters on the Withlacoochee slowly route downstream through the Suwannee. However, 7-day river forecasts for the Suwannee have been gradually been trending down with the respective crests from Branford down to Manatee Springs. Though minor flooding is still the forecast a few days from now, this seems to become less certain with each forecast update.

Otherwise, rainfall in the week ahead is unlikely to cause flooding issues. Thunderstorms later today have potential to dump a quick 1-3 inches in heavier pockets, which would merely cause short- duration runoff issues. Additional rainfall through next weekend is forecast to be hydrologically insignificant.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.