Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Isolated Thunderstorms Through The Night. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night And Thursday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night And Friday...West Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight And In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms|
|Saturday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700|
940 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021
For the remainder of the work week mariners can expect winds less than 10 knots and seas around a foot or less. By Saturday, winds are expected to to increase slightly to around 10-15 knots, which will build swells to a more consistent 1-2 foot range across all the waters. Generally speaking, favorable boating conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of showers and thunderstorms that could lead to periods of increased seas and winds in their vicinity.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]... Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon. This activity continues over South Central Georgia with remnant anvil rains continuing elsewhere across our Georgia and Florida Panhandle counties. Outflow boundaries are sparking new storms over our nearshore marine zones as well. Convection will diminish over land through the evening with offshore convection continuing to develop. Temperatures tonight will get no lower than the mid 70s outside of thunderstorms.
Another wet day is in store Wednesday with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 2 inches and slow storm movements. Likely to categorical rain chances are forecast through much of the area tomorrow with 70-80% common especially late morning through late afternoon. WPC has outlooked much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s which will yield heat indices in the low to mid 100s outside of thick cloud cover.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]... Deep upper level ridging to our west will dominate the flow pattern across the region through the short and long term period, with northwest flow through the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Thursday through Thursday night, a vorticity streamer across the upper levels is expected to remain in a west/east orientation across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, which is expected to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms across these areas on Thursday. Given that PW values (Precipitable Water values) will still be hanging around 1.7-1.9 inches across the region on Thursday, there still remains the chance that any slow moving or training storms could lead to a localized flooding threat, especially across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where those rain chances are much higher.
Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity on thursday, the main concern across the region will be the heat indices values across the region. The higher values are especially likely outside thunderstorms across SE Alabama and SW Georgia where thunderstorm coverage is expected to be much less. Heat index values across this region are expected to climb into the 108-111 range, which is well into our heat advisory levels.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
The long term period will generally be characterized by a strong upper level ridge to our west, which will bring continued northwest flow into our area. To our north, a broad upper level trough is expected to sit across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which will keep much of the widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms to our north. The ridge; however, will contribute to widespread Heat Advisory level conditions (108-112 degree heat indices) across the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. By Sunday evening, the aforementioned trough across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions is expected to slowly start pushing into the southeast, which will increase precipitation chances as well as bring a slight reprieve from the excessive heat that will be observed across the region through the weekend. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend; however, by Monday, temperatures drop back down into the low 90s and upper 80s. Lows will generally remain in the mid to upper 70s across the region.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.