Marine Weather Net

Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUNDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MONDAY

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ730 Forecast Issued: 325 PM EDT Sat May 08 2021

Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North 10 Knots Late In The Evening, Then Becoming Southeast 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Monday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Early In The Evening, Then Becoming Light And Variable. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Wednesday...Light And Variable Winds Becoming North 10 Knots In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night.
Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
325 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

Light and variable winds should become more easterly tonight into tomorrow, followed by southerly flow through at least Tues. Small craft operators, particularly in Apalachee Bay, should exercise caution late tonight and in the pre-dawn hours from a southeast surge in winds in the 15-20 kt range. There is a low- end chance for light showers on Sun afternoon across our Panhandle waters, but otherwise expect fair weather to close out the weekend. Unsettled weather is slated to return during the work week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
427pm EDT Sat May 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... The 12z TAE balloon sounding observed an extremely dry PW value of 0.36" this morning, barely missing a record dry value for this date. Meanwhile, the surface pressure analysis reveals a high center near Dothan. This makes a clear and dry forecast a no- brainer for today.

The high center will move off to the east late today and emerge into the Atlantic this evening. This will allow seabreezes to develop along the coast this afternoon, penetrating inland to near I-10 by sunset. This will bring the first ankle-deep return of Gulf moisture. This will merely start to boost surface dewpoints along the Panhandle coast through the 50s starting late this afternoon and into this evening.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]... The anticipated unsettled weather begins to take shape late Sunday into early Monday as a frontal boundary sags from the Appalachians and encroaches on southeast AL. Reasons for the decelerating front are a combination of a departing shortwave well to the north of us and the upper-level flow becoming zonal. Despite the lack of large-scale synoptic forcing, convergence between the seabreeze reinforced by onshore flow and the front should provide sufficient lift to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Our environment is expected to be favorable for some robust convection thanks to a adequate deep-layer shear on the order of 30- 40 kts, plenfitul moisture (dewpoints into the 70s), and good instability. For these reasons, Storm Prediction Center introduced a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather in their Day 3 Outlook (valid from 12Z Monday to 12Z Tues) for most of southeast AL and portions of Walton/Holmes County. Point soundings taken at Dothan for Monday depict unstable conditions consisting of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and >1000 J/kg of CAPE, which are most pronounced during peak heating hours (e.g., inverted-V profile). These parameters suggest storms should have little trouble organizing and will be capable of damaging winds, small hail, and lightning.

Overall, short-term Probability of Precipitation are highest and diurnally driven across the western half of our forecast area, closest to the front. Locations with higher rain chances correspond to lower forecast max temperatures (low 80s), compared to mid/upper 80s towards Big Bend/I- 75. Low temperatures are going to be quite warm (mid/upper 60s). Patchy fog is also possible but confidence was too low to explicity forecast. An additional concern is the heavy rain potential given the slow-moving nature of the boundary, coupled with forecast Precipitable Water values approaching 2". As a result, WPC placed our westernmost CWA under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 3 Outlook. More details in the Hydrology section.

Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday
The lingering front will keep our weather unsettled until it gets kicked to the curb by a broad trough swinging across the Upper TN Valley late-week. Convection should continue to flourish in this environment and is expected to be aided further by periodic upper impulses passing through the zonal flow aloft. Up to likely Probability of Precipitation (60- 70%) are forecast Tues and Wednesday afternoon, with greater areal coverage compared to the short-term. Rain chances then slowly taper off from west to east Thurs into Fri. Thunderstorms will be possible each day, some of which may become strong to severe. It would not be surprising if we get consecutive marginal risk days introduced by Storm Prediction Center in future outlooks. Dry conditions return on the weekend.

High temperatures are forecast to fluctuate between the 80s and 70s, depending on precipitation coverage and duration. Warm/muggy conditions are expected the first two nigheights (lows in the mid/upper 60s) before becoming more mild (upper 50s/low 60s) for the remainder of the period.

Marine
Light and variable winds should become more easterly tonight into tomorrow, followed by southerly flow through at least Tues. Small craft operators, particularly in Apalachee Bay, should exercise caution late tonight and in the pre-dawn hours from a southeast surge in winds in the 15-20 kt range. There is a low-end chance for light showers on Sunday afternoon across our Panhandle waters, but otherwise expect fair weather to close out the weekend. Unsettled weather is slated to return during the work week.

Fire Weather
Southerly winds will increase on Sunday, bringing higher relative humidity values back into the area. However, dispersion values will also be high with increased transport winds.

Hydrology
The Choctawhatchee River - Carryville and Apalachicola River - Blountstown are currently in action stage but are both forecast to crest this weekend and fall below by Monday and Wed, respectively. Choctawhatchee River - Bruce will rise to action stage early next week and crest through the end of the period. All other rivers are in good shape, with dry conditions in place through Sun. Rain chances return Mon, kicking off a wet pattern into late week.

As mentioned in the short-term section, WPC placed portions of Coffee/Geneva/Walton/Holmes Counties in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Mon. Localized flash or nuiscance flooding may occur from heavy and/or persistent rainfall over the same area(s) from a stalled front. Current storm-total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast values next week peak at slightly under 2" for the northwest half of the forecast area. Expect values to change in subsequent updates.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.