Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Diminishing To Around 5 Knots Late. Seas 1 Or 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Tonight...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. |
| Friday...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. |
| Friday Night...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas Around 1 Foot. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 Or 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 Or 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly After Midnight. |
| Sunday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Protected Waters Rough. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Light east-southeast low-level flow will continue the warming trend that has been underway the last couple of days. Thick cloud cover this morning should thin out some this afternoon, so some rays of sun should be expected this afternoon. As the light southeast flow moistens the air mass, we have introduced areas of fog to the forecast late tonight and Friday morning, particularly over the FL Panhandle and Lower Alabama. Long Term (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 The low chance of freezing rain that we have been discussing along and north of U.S. 82 this weekend has decreased to the point that it is no longer a reasonable concern (now a 5 percent chance or less along the Eufaula-Albany-Tifton corridor). The southern stream wave and surface low coming across on Sunday has chosen a more northward track across south and central Georgia and has become a bit more amplified in model solutions. This means that the warm sector in advance of the low will be able to expand well north through Georgia and Alabama, so this has pushed the freezing rain threat comfortably north of our forecast area. We are phasing out the mention of wintry precipitation from the Key Messages section at the top of the AFD. Still, folks planning to travel north of our region this weekend should keep tabs on the forecast and have a contingency for travel disruptions. An upper low is spinning off the California coast early this morning. It will move east across northern Mexico on Saturday night, then Texas early Sunday. It will be accelerating as it phases with and gets swept east into the base of a longwave trough encompassing the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. It will zip across the Southeast States late Sunday. It will generate a surface low along the Texas coast, which will then track E-NE across southern Alabama and central Georgia later Sunday. The low will have a nice frontal structure, with a preceding warm sector surging north throughout our area. In the warm sector, we may need to watch for strong thunderstorms on Sunday, posing a low-end severe threat. The warm sector will feature weak convective instability and about 45-60 knots of deep-layer shear. The warm layer should feature enough convective inhibition to partially cap the air mass, but favorable jet dynamics and large- scale lift could help overcome the thermodynamic cap. Once the surface low moves east across the Carolinas on Sunday evening, a strong and sharp trailing cold front will pivot and plow south through our area. Moisture should exit before colder air arrives, so no snow this time. However, a sharply colder air mass will be driving in early Monday on strong north winds. Highs on Monday will only reach the 40s and 50s. A widespread freeze is expected Monday night. Probability-based guidance shows a medium to high chance (60-80 percent) of a hard freeze (25 degrees or less) on Tuesday morning. The center of a cold surface high will pass near or just north of the forecast area Tuesday night, so cold and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Marine Issued at 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 A weak bubble of high pressure near the South Carolina coast will keep gentle easterly breezes going across the Northeast Gulf through Friday. Strong high pressure will bridge in from the north on Friday night and Saturday, freshening the easterly breezes. A low pressure wave will develop over the Northwest Gulf on Saturday night, then pass across Georgia on Sunday. A sharp trailing front will pivot south across the waters late Sunday. The front will be preceded by fresh southerlies early Sunday, then followed by strong northerlies on Sunday night and Monday. Fire Weather Issued at 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Weakening east to southeast flow will prevail through Friday morning. This will support a day-to-day warming trend today and Friday, with increasing humidity both days. When combined with seasonably low mixing heigheights and sometimes-thick cloud cover, you should only expect fair to poor afternoon dispersion values through Saturday. A cold front will cross the region on Sunday and Sunday evening, bringing a fairly widespread wetting rain on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase in advance of the front, followed by strong and gusty northerly winds late Sunday night into Monday. A cold and dry air mass will then hold its grip on our region for much of next week. Areas of fog are expected around sunrise Friday for much of the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. Hydrology Issued at 137am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days, as rainfall this weekend will fall well short of what is needed for flooding. During the first half of next week, expect to see modest rises on rivers flowing south out of central Georgia --- namely the Kinchafoonee, Muckalee, and Flint --- due to heavier precipitation this weekend near the headwaters of those rivers. Though these rivers will not even reach action stage, any rise on these rivers would be noteworthy after months of drought and low flow. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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