Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 Knots Becoming South 15 Knots In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet Building To 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds After Midnight. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700|
215 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Easterly flow continues through Sunday Night, when it could briefly reach 15 knots. Winds will veer to the southwest on Monday ahead of a cold front, then become northwest Monday night behind the front, around 10 knots. The approach of a strong area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will turn winds southerly on Wednesday, with its associated cold front moving through the waters on Thursday. Winds on both Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be solidly at advisory levels, ranging from 20 to 25 knots, with significant wave heights building to 8 feet just offshore on Thursday. There is also the potential for gale force gusts with the passage of a squall line ahead of the cold front, and then again behind the cold front.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
848pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
06pm EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Quiet conditions will continue.nue through Sunday with high pressure at the surface controlling the sensible weather. This high pressure will shift east overnight, but mostly clear skies (besides thin upper level cirrus), and dry conditions in place will allow cool temperatures to prevail for one more night, especially across our northern counties.
For Sunday, as high pressure continues translating east, southeasterly flow will begin to redevelop ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Rain should hold off through this period, but with the weak upper level trough approaching, expect an increase in mid-upper level clouds through the day. High temps will climb into the mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]... Surface ridging will gradually loose influence as the flow aloft becomes cyclonic with the approach of a mid-level trough. The first shortwave transits the area Sunday night and with limited moist return, expect showers to be confined to coastal areas. The next shortwave moves across the Tennessee Valley on Monday and drags a weak cold front through the region Monday night. There will be sufficient moisture ahead of this feature for a slight chance of diurnal showers across the tri-state area on Monday, with Probability of Precipitation limited to 30 pct. It will be noticeably more humid on Monday with dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front. Despite this, thunder chances will be limited given lack of forcing and the volume of dry air aloft. The environment is also favorable for patchy fog on Monday morning, and especially Monday night into Tuesday morning with the front in the vicinity. Daily average temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be around 10 degrees above normal.
Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday
A dynamic, fall storm system has the potential to produce severe weather across the tri-state region on Wednesday into Thursday. First, dry weather is expected on Tuesday in the wake of the cold frontal passage with decreasing humidity. Fog is likely early in the morning, which could be locally dense.
Shortwave energy within a northern stream longwave trough over the plains phases with energy in the southern stream (remnants of TC Rick in the E PAC) during midweek. This feature closes off as it approaches the Tennessee Valley and drags a strong cold front through the region on Thursday and Thu Night. Timing differences in the guidance have implications for severe weather potential. The GFS/UKMET are the most progressive with the pre-frontal trough moving through Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, while the EC/Canadian are slower, depicting Wednesday Night into Thu morning. Storms could struggle to become surface based during the overnight hours with greater Convective Inhibition. Storm Prediction Center indicates a 15 pct area on D5 (Wed) over SE AL and the Western FL Panhandle. In addition, instability may also be limited given the progressive nature of the system. But with ensembles generating around 50 knots of Bulk Shear (0-6 km), a High Shear - Low CAPE (HSLC) environment would compensate for this. This would most likely be in the form of a QLCS with a damaging wind/tornado threat, but a northward moving warm front also bears watching. Otherwise, the environment would favor gusty southwest winds late Wednesday/early Thursday well in advance of any thunderstorms.
A much cooler air mass filters in behind the cold front on Friday and Saturday. Model Time-Height sections show ample moisture below a low-level inversion, so would expect a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds each day. In addition, there may be enough lift within the cyclonic flow aloft for some showers, but kept the forecast dry on both days outside of a 20 pct Probability of Precipitation south of I-10 on Friday. With strong cold air advection/steep low-level lapse rates, winds could gust to at least 25 mph behind the front on Friday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal both days, and there could be a chill in the air at times given the breezy conditions and cloud cover.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.