Marine Weather Net

Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ730 Forecast Issued: 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Rest Of Tonight...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough.
Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds, Building To 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds After Midnight. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.
Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.
Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Saturday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Near Term
(Through Tuesday) Issued at 241pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties.

Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties.

.SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday's cold front.

Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps.

Long Term
(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.

Marine
Issued at 927pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can't be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.

Fire Weather
Issued at 241pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heigheights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heigheights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains.

Hydrology
Issued at 241pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week.

Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11am CDT/ today for FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Warning until 10am EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.

AL...Freeze Warning until 9am CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11am CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775.