Marine Weather Net

Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ730 Forecast Issued: 142 AM EST Tue Mar 02 2021

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Today...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tonight...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots Early In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Rain Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning.
Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...North Winds 10 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Friday...East Winds 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Late Evening. Seas 0 To 1 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Rain Showers Likely In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
142 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Intermittent advisory conditions in waters west of the Ochlockonee river to the Okaloosa and Walton county line today and tonight due to a frontal system and a cold frontal passage later today. Cautionary conditions will reside in Apalachee Bay to Keaton Beach through Wednesday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in later Wednesday through Saturday with rain returning next weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
245am EST Tuesday Mar 2 2021

Near Term - Through Tonight
There is a surface low developing along the northern Gulf Coast that stalled the progression of the cold front from yesterday. This, along with an abundance of moisture, will allow for widespread rain this afternoon and evening, with highest rainfall amounts expected north of the stalled front in SE Alabama and SW to central Georgia. Severe weather is not expected but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The surface low will move inland tonight, which will gradually drive out the frontal system tomorrow. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s for the highs today and low temps will be in the upper 40s to low 50s region wide by tomorrow morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... Frontal system will be exiting stage right into the Atlantic Ocean with dry conditions for our area this period. Mid level flow becomes northwesterly with building heigheights and ridging through the Plains. Surface high pressure will move through the Mississippi delta, extending northward into the midwest. Northwest winds at the surface will keep the cool air funneling in with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Friday will be a transition day as high pressure loses its hold on the region as an upstream low pressure area moves off the Louisiana coast moving towards the central Florida peninsula later Saturday. The center of the low will track south of us but a little instability will develop in the Gulf waters and the immediate coast to warrant a mention of thunder on Saturday. That system moves on east Sunday with high pressure and dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. It will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s in store Sunday and Monday then slowly warming towards the lower 70s by Tuesday.

Marine
Intermittent advisory conditions in waters west of the Ochlockonee river to the Okaloosa and Walton county line today and tonight due to a frontal system and a cold frontal passage later today. Cautionary conditions will reside in Apalachee Bay to Keaton Beach through Wednesday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in later Wednesday through Saturday with rain returning next weekend.

Fire Weather
Wet conditions today and tomorrow will lead to no fire weather concerns at this time.

Hydrology
Focus over the next 48 hours will be the approaching storm system Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning and the rainfall potential associated with it. Most of the model guidance suggests the heaviest rain would be across our Georgia counties, particularly within the Flint, Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins. These areas have had a great deal of rainfall over the last month and are particularly vulnerable to river flooding following heavy rains. Based on MMEFS guidance, 2-3 inches of rain would be sufficient to produce minor flooding in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins, but it would take a little more (up to 4 inches) to produce minor flooding within the Kinch/Muck creek basins north of Albany.

This system will be a quick mover, so the potential for flash flooding is somewhat reduced. However, heavy rainfall rates occurring over an urban area like Albany or Tifton could create the potential for flash flooding Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts on the evening guidance and from WPC came down some what but 2-3 inches still appears to be on average through southern Georgia. WPC has highlighted much of southern Georgia and southeast Alabama in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Areas from Lee/Dougherty/Mitchell and counties eastward would have the highest threat for flooding since this area has received 150-200% of normal precipitation over the past two weeks.

Elsewhere across the region, ongoing river flooding continues in the Middle Suwannee. The river has crested at Luraville at about 21.5kcfs and we should see the crest occur at Branford tomorrow evening. Projecting these flows downstream below Rock Bluff, it appears as though we'll end up just short of minor flood stage at Wilcox, and possibly at Manatee Springs as well.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST /6am CST/ Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.