Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest This Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1025am EDT Fri August 12 2022
The 12z KTAE sounding shows yet another day with a very moist atmosphere atop the area. PWAT (Precipitable Water) was 2.03 inches this morning, leading to yet another day of likely showers and storms. Scattered mainly light showers are ongoing this morning in our Central Time Zone counties, but started to see an uptick in convection over the waters west of Cape San Blas.
Since we aren't seeing the widespread rain like we did yesterday morning, feel that today may see a bit more convection in the afternoon, especially in areas that see a bit more sun through the rest of the morning. Thus, made an uptick in rain chances for the afternoon, mainly for the FL Big Bend and south GA. Some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms.
44am EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected blossom near the coast through the early morning hours today. A fairly strong low level jet in place will make gusty winds a possibility with this activity, even in showers. However, the low level jet should continue to weaken throughout the day and therefore lead to a return to a more typical set up. Deep layer moisture will remain across the area through tonight with southwesterly winds at the surface. A col over the region in the mid levels will keep mid level winds fairly light and mostly out of the north. A mid level trough further west over the central Gulf Coast states may continue to spawn showers and storms over the Gulf, which will continue to push northeastward into our area. Another round of more typical summertime showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across areas further inland not worked over by rainfall this morning. Highs are forecast in the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the low 70s.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday
The short term starts with a slowly moving cold front (In name only) stretching from southern Alabama to southern Georgia which will move south through the day and end up in our Florida counties Sunday. North of the boundary, high pressure situated in the northeast will be the influencer while south of the front, high pressure through the eastern Gulf will remain the dominate feature. The front will be the dividing line between drier air (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.5-1.7 inches) north to more moist air (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ~2 inches) to the south with no real change in temperature across the front. So, highest rain chances will reside along and south of the front with a decreasing trend of rain chances heading into Sunday.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Friday
The upper pattern in the long term will be characterized by ridging over the western US and troughing over the eastern US. The aforementioned front from the short term will eventually 'wash out' early next week as upper support weakens. However, several impulses in the flow will dive southeastward and drive another weak front towards our area mid week. Lower than average rain chances Monday will slowly increase back to near average by the end of the work week owing to increasing low level moisture and another front acting as added focus for afternoon thunderstorm development.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.