Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And Southwest 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers Early This Evening. Isolated Showers Late. |
| Tuesday...North Winds Near 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And Southwest 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 246pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, Marine IRE WEATHER,Hydrology Near Term (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Most of the rain has moved to be along and south of I-10. This pattern is expected to continue into this evening with the heavier showers occurring over our marine zones. As this area of low pressure from the Gulf continues east towards and across the peninsula, a cold front from the northwest will usher in late tonight into tomorrow. High pressure will settle in behind the front, and the air mass will be drier with cool temperatures. The high for Tuesday will range in the mid to upper 50s, with the morning lows starting in the low to mid 30s. There will likely be enough remaining moisture for frost to develop Tuesday morning, especially north of I-10. Skies will begin to clear after the frontal passage early Tuesday morning through the afternoon. .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Cooler than normal weather continues through the middle of the week thanks to a 1035 mb surface high over the Ohio Valley. A few mid to high level clouds will stream through the region and help to keep temperatures a tad warmer at night and a touch cooler during the day. Overnight lows will generally bottom out in the middle to upper 30s both nigheights with daytime highs in the middle to upper 50s Wednesday afternoon. Long Term (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 An H5 shortwave diving out of the northern plains and through the Deep South will help spawn a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. As of now, the track of the surface low is far enough south to keep the bulk of the rain offshore, but a 10 to 20 percent chance for a few light showers is in the forecast for our Florida counties. Another system approaches this weekend and has the potential to be quite the rainmaker for portions of the southeast. An H5 low over northern Baja ejects as a shortwave into the Southern Plains and over the Southeast Friday into Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft pulls in a fair amount of Pacific moisture with precipitable water values (PWATs) of 1.3" to 1.8", or near or exceeding the 90th percentile for mid-January. Couple that with the shortwave getting absorbed into a broader trough diving out of Canada, which would cause the front to slow down significantly, and there is the potential for quite a bit of rain. Latest ensembles highlight a 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding 2" of rain across most of the region and a less than 10% chance of exceeding 3" across southeastern Alabama this weekend. Needless to say, this weekend is a time period we'll watch for the potential for flash flooding. Temperatures are forecast to surge back into the 60s for highs Friday and the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday thanks to winds out of the south ahead of this weekend's cold front. Overnight lows follow a similar uptrend with lows in the 40s Friday night and the 50s Saturday night. The warm spell won't last long much colder weather oozes on in Sunday into Sunday night. How fast that cooler air will dictate just how cold we get near the end of the forecast period, so confidence remains rather low with regards to temperatures later this weekend. Marine Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 A Gulf low moving through the offshore waters today will continue advisory-level conditions for small craft into early Tuesday afternoon, with seas peaking from 5 to 8 feet through tonight for the waters west of the Ochlockonee River. Elevated northeast winds will continue into Wednesday with caution in order for small craft that venture out. More tranquil boating conditions should commence by Thursday as high pressure briefly settles over the waters. The approach of another storm system is expected to lead to freshening breezes and increasing seas again by next weekend. Fire Weather Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Mixing heigheights gradually increase each afternoon as a drier airmass settles into the region. Transport winds will be northerly at around 10-15 mph during the day on Tuesday, and closer to 10 mph on Wednesday. Dispersions will be fair during the afternoon hours for Tuesday. They will be poor but above 20 units on Wednesday because of the lower transport wind speeds. Heading into Thursday, there's a slight chance for rain along the Forgotten Coast and the SE Big Bend where dispersions will be low. For our SE AL and SW GA districts, dispersions will be fair to moderate in the afternoon. Due to the rain that occurred on Monday, there may be light patchy fog across all districts except the immediate coast on Tuesday morning. Frost is also likely for districts along and north of I-10 on Tuesday. Hydrology Issued at 241pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 This morning's rain event over-performed across Florida with several stations reporting 1.5" to 2.5" with a few spots picking up nearly 3" of rain. Rainfall totals of generally 0.5" to 1.0" were experienced elsewhere for all but our most northeastern Georgia. Fortunately, we have been quite dry as of late, so flash flooding nor river flooding is anticipated. Another weak area of low pressure sweeps through the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday and may give our Florida communities another small dose of rain. Another cold front is poised to swing into the southeast this weekend. Ample moisture ahead of the front means there is a low chance (less than 10%) of much of the region exceeding 2" of rain. We'll keep monitoring the trends through the week for any flash flood potential. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. |
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