Marine Weather Net

Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TUESDAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ730 Forecast Issued: 1236 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Friday...North Winds 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
1236 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

A cold frontal passage on Tuesday Night will promote Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday and Wednesday Night, with seas west of the Ochlocknee River building 3 to 5 feet. Prior to the frontal passage, showers and thunderstorms east of Mexico Beach on Tuesday could lead to waterspouts. Fair boating conditions are expected Wednesday Night through Thursday Night. Another cold frontal passage on Friday will lead to elevated winds and seas once again.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100am EDT Monday September 28 2020

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]... The weak upper level trough that has produced much of the rain yesterday is expected to be ejected to the north and east of us by the morning hours. A weak upper level vorticity streamer is expected to remain outstretched across the central portion of the region, that was left over from the aforementioned trough, and provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day today. This vorticity streamer coupled with enhanced upper level divergence from an approaching long wave trough over the central United States will allow for this shower and thunderstorm activity to remain widespread throughout the eastern portions of our region. This activity throughout the afternoon may shift further east into the Suwannee Valley and eastern Florida Big Bend regions as the vorticity streamer starts to feel the effects of the approaching long wave trough throughout the day and starts to shift east over these regions. Chances of rain decrease once again overnight as the vorticity streamer exits the region, and diurnal heating ceases for the day. Temperatures are expected to surge into the low to mid 80s across the region, as this will likely be the last warm and humid day before more comfortable weather enters the region from the impending upper level trough. Lows overnight Monday will fall into the low 70s across much of the area.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday and Tuesday Night]... The main concern on Tuesday is heavy rainfall from the FL Big Bend northward into Southwest Georgia east of the Flint River. There is also a low potential for brief tornado in the eastern FL Big Bend.

A longwave trough amplifies as it traverses the area on Tuesday. This will be a dynamic system, with the area within the divergent region of a 150 knot upper jet just to our northwest, aiding in large scale ascent of an air mass characterized by Precipitable Water values up to 2.2 inches. The high resolution guidance is also showing one or more meso-lows developing along a progressive cold front, which will further enhance ascent and shear. Expect average rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches in the FL Big Bend into portions of Southwest georgia east of the Flint River. There is the potential for localized higher amounts of 3-5 inches mainly in the FL Big Bend. If these amounts are realized, then minor poor drainage flooding, or even an isolated flash flood, cannot be ruled out. While instability is low, the enhanced shear across the Eastern FL Big Bend could lead to a brief tornado.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
The large scale pattern will favor westerly flow aloft with the low-level flow gradually backing from northwest to northeast. This will favor a dry air mass through much of the period, with below normal temperatures and low humidity. A secondary cold frontal passage expected on Friday will reinforce the aforementioned air mass, and should not lead to additional precipitation. We will be watching a disturbance in the Caribbean that NHC has posted a 20 percent probability for development through Day 5. The only concern with the system at this time is for some longer period swells to reach the gulf beaches early next week and lead to a higher risk of rip currents, which is dependent on development.

Marine
A cold frontal passage on Tuesday Night will promote Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday and Wednesday Night, with seas west of the Ochlocknee River building 3 to 5 feet. Prior to the frontal passage, showers and thunderstorms east of Mexico Beach on Tuesday could lead to waterspouts. Fair boating conditions are expected Wednesday Night through Thursday Night. Another cold frontal passage on Friday will lead to elevated winds and seas once again.

Fire Weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as a wet weather pattern if forecast to continue through Tuesday before drier conditions take over to finish the week.

Hydrology
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is our only river warning point remaining in flood and will continue a slow fall over the next several days. Otherwise, the rainfall expected over the next couple of days will either be heaviest away from the recently impacted basins, or won't be enough to further aggravate river levels. A reasonable expectation would be that aggravated rivers may be a bit slower to fall if impacted by rain over the next couple of days.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.