Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds In The Afternoon. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Tonight...West Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Friday...South Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
624am EDT Monday May 16 2022
30am EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight
Patchy fog this morning will give way to sunshine through early afternoon. Will see clouds increase with the pooling of moisture along sea-breeze boundaries and in advance of a shortwave in the northwest flow aloft. This flow will keep the sea-breeze closer to I-10, where shower and thunderstorm activity will increase during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds given increasing Downdraft CAPE, esp in the FL Panhandle.
As the shortwave approaches, another line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop over portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia and propagate Southeast late this afternoon into early tonight. While dry air aloft may limit the extent of activity, i.e., a broken w/limited thunder, the environment is favorable for gusty winds and small hail. In particular, Southwest GA into the FL Big Bend, where 1k J/kg of ML CAPE is modeled until after midnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing 0-3 km shear (rotating updrafts) supports small hail and Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1k J/kg and inverted-v/caret sounding profiles supports gusty winds. But again, this will all be dependent on whether updrafts can sustain given the extent of dry air aloft, as well as gradually decreasing instability with the loss of daytime heating.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the gulf coast today, with lows tonight in the 60s to around 70.With light winds and a moist low-level air mass, patchy fog is possible again tonight, and will be fine tuned in later forecasts.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... Upper level trough will depart allowing for zonal flow and weak upper level ridging to build behind it. This will lead to dry conditions during the short term with high temperatures soaring into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Although summer hasn't officially started, we'll definitely be getting a taste of it this week.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday
Upper level ridging will quickly slide to our east and build over the Atlantic leaving us with hot and dry weather on Thursday. As eluded to before, we're getting a taste of summer this week with Thursday's highs forecast to be in the low to mid 90s for interior areas while coastal communities vary from the mid 80s to low 90s. If heading outdoors remember your heat safety this week! Examples being: look before you lock if you're traveling with family or pets, wear loose and light fitted clothing and sunblock, drink plenty of water, and stay cool. Friday will be a warm one as well, though the ridge will be building westward into the SE. This could bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the CWA in addition to the above normal heat. Overnight lows for this stretch of the forecast will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Come the weekend, the upper level ridge will battle against an upper level low from the midwest. High temperatures start to falter on Saturday, with temps ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. We return closer to normal Sunday and Monday as highs range from the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through early Tue morning, with drier conditions forecast through midweek. Light to moderate breezes are forecast, though there could be brief periods of exercise caution. Wave heigheights throughout the period will generally range from 2 to 4 feet and may be choppy at times.
Much of the tri-state area outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. The main concern today will be high dispersions north of I-10 over Southeast AL and Southwest GA. A cold front moves through tonight ushering in a drier air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum afternoon Relative Humidity values are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s over Southeast AL and Southwest GA. Despite the otherwise dry conditions, 20-ft winds around 5 mph should limit fire spread.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today. This activity will produce locally heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding issues; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated. Drier weather is forecast after today, with the next chance for precipitation arriving by the end of the week.
Tide gauges at Panama City, Apalachicola, and Steinhatchee are in action stage this morning likely due to the full moon and onshore flow that has been occuring. Looking at the tide predictions from Panama City Beach to Cedar Key observed water levels have exceeded the tide prediction by roughly 0.75ft. Current thinking is that sites from roughly Panama City (Bay County) to Dixie County will likely see tides rise to action stage causing limited coastal flooding. With tide predictions being lower than what has actually been observed and winds remaining onshore plus any lingering astronomical influences, minor flooding cannot be ruled out.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.