Marine Weather Net

Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ730 Forecast Issued: 818 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy.
Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy.
Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds In The Afternoon. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1220am EST Thu Feb 22 2024

Near Term
(Through Thursday) Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

Mid to upper level ridging will continue keeping us dry throughout the near term portion of this forecast. With high pressure remaining dominant through tonight, cooler temperatures are on tap once again with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and low 50s along the Gulf Coast. Tonight through tomorrow, a surface low will develop east of the Rockies and traverse east through the Central Plains. Over our area, the surface pressure gradient will tighten resulting in gusty winds out of the south. Additionally, this will kick off return flow over much of the area advecting warmer air and higher dewpoints across the area. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 70s areawide underneath generally clear skies.

.SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

Cold front approaches the region in the short term and with it we'll see scattered showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder, early Friday and into the afternoon hours. With much of the forcing well off to the north and northeast, and no significant moisture return ahead of the front, rainfall amounts look quite low with many locations likely not seeing more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Main sensible impacts will be breezy southwesterly flow on Friday ahead of the front and a switch to northwest winds by the late afternoon and overnight hours.

Temperatures will be mild Friday morning with southerly flow in place and generally in the upper 50s to near 60 across the Panhandle, southeast AL, and parts of the Big Bend/southwest Georgia. Further east across the northern parts of Florida and south-central Georgia, moisture recovery will be slower overnight so temperatures likely will be in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon temperatures will be warm and likely in the mid to upper 70s, though showery conditions along the front could keep our northern portions of the area in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia a little cooler and in the low 70s. Temperatures will fall in the evening hours with overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning dropping into low to mid 40s.

There will be some fire weather concerns on Friday, but the larger concerns likely arrive on Saturday behind the cold front. For a more detailed look at the fire weather concerns, please view the fire weather section towards the bottom of the Area Forecast Discussion.

Long Term
(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

Cold front should be clear of the area by daybreak Saturday, but in the upper levels, another shortwave embedded in the mean eastern CONUS trough should move through the area during the day. This will likely bring a reinforcing cold front through during the afternoon. However, with no significant moisture and cold air mass, this front will mostly just keep the winds elevated in the afternoon. This is especially true given the dry conditions and full sunshine expected. This will allow us to tap into some of those stronger winds above the surface with the shortwave passage and it should yield a breezy/gusty afternoon. With no significant cold air mass behind Friday's front, we'll like see temperatures only a few degrees cooler on Saturday and generally in the low 70s.

The cooler temperatures over the weekend will be short lived as upper level ridging and southerly flow take over next week. Not expecting much rainfall either until the middle/end of next week so expect above average temperatures and below normal rainfall until at least the end of next week.

Marine
Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

Winds will begin clocking around out of the east and eventually south into Thursday as high pressure moves off the East Coast. A cold front will move through the waters Thursday night into Friday, bringing an increase in west to northwest winds and building seas. At least cautionary level winds and 3 to 6 foot seas are expected beginning Thursday night and lasting through Saturday as another reinforcing cold front keeps winds elevated. Advisory level conditions are also possible before things begin to quiet down by Sunday as high pressure settles in.

Fire Weather
Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

Tomorrow, surface winds will be out of the south around 10- 15mph areawide. Mixing heigheights ranging from 3500-4000ft with transport winds 15-25mph will yield elevated dispersions areawide with pockets of high dispersions in our northernmost tier of SW GA counties. Most of our area will see MinRH values in the mid 30-50% range as southerly flow brings more moisture into the area, though some of our easternmost SW GA and FL Big Bend counties may see MinRH values below 30%.

On Friday, a cold front will push through the area clocking our winds out of the NW behind it around 5-15mph lasting through Saturday. Around 0.1" of rain is expected across the area. Mixing heigheights will reach 4000-5000ft Friday afternoon with transport winds reaching 15-25mph which will yield high dispersions across the entire area. MinRH values will generally range from 40-70% increasing with southern extent.

On Saturday, mixing heigheights will see a notable increase behind the cold front reaching around 7000-8000ft. Additionally, transport winds will remain quite elevated in the afternoon ranging from 20- 30mph. This will result in high dispersions across the area with pockets of very high dispersions as well. Lastly, MinRH values will be quite low with the majority of the area seeing values under 30%. Thankfully, fuels will still remain moist given the recent rains, though there is still some concern given the high dispersions and low RH within the area.

Hydrology
Issued at 236pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024

The Flint River at Bainbridge is expected to drop below minor flood stage later today with the Apalachicola River at Blountstown expected to remain in minor flood until Thursday. Rainfall later this week is expected to be mainly light with no additional flood concerns anticipated. Area rivers will continue to recede.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.