Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots Late In The Night. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday...East Winds 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sunday...South Winds 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Becoming North 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700|
257 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020
Northwest winds will increase tonight into Friday morning to near Small Craft Advisory levels, but overall falling just short. Winds and seas will increase again to at least advisory levels with the potential for gale force gusts Sunday into Monday, along with wave heights building to 10 feet offshore, as a frontal system crosses the waters. Tranquil boating conditions will follow by mid week.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
730pm EDT Thu April 9 2020
.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Friday]... Short wave energy topping the shallow upper ridge over Texas today will move east across our region tonight and early Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the day today. Residual outflow boundaries and the sea breeze may allow for a narrow band of convergence and just enough forcing for ascent to allow some isolated showers and storms to develop in the late afternoon along I- 10. Most areas will remain dry today. The front will sweep across the region tonight ushering much cooler air. Lows tonight will range from 55 to 60 degrees in most areas. That's still above normal, but high highs Friday will only be in the upper 60s north to lower 70s south, some 20 degrees cooler than today. Some forcing from the approach short wave and weak isentropic ascent will bring mid-level clouds to the region overnight and into Friday with slight to low chances for rain (20-30%) after midnight through midday.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Night and Saturday]... No weather concerns with a ridge of high pressure in control. Dry weather through the period. Saturday morning low temperatures will be below normal, ranging from the low to mid-40s across the area given ideal longwave cooling. It's possible some spots dip into the middle and upper 30s! Temperatures will rebound nicely to a couple degrees above normal Saturday.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
Severe weather potential ramps up Sunday and lingers into Monday, with the main event possibly centered Sunday Night into Monday Morning. There is the potential for a severe weather outbreak, including widespread damaging winds and tornadoes. Storm Prediction Center has placed the area northwest of the FL Big Bend under a 30 percent probability, and this is significant at this time range.
A mid-level shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it progresses thru the Tennessee Valley late this weekend into early next week, leading to surface cyclogenesis. There are differences in model timing, with the GEFS more progressive by roughly 6-12 hours in comparison to the EPS. This translates into timing uncertainties, and thus the broad timing window for severe weather potential.
Other concerns include gusty winds out ahead of any thunderstorms, possibly reaching 40 mph at times, rip currents/high surf along the coast, and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding along Apalachee Bay for the Sunday afternoon/evening high tide.
Looking ahead, a frontal boundary stalls south of the area into the middle of next week, with cloudiness and renewed chances of showers.
Overall, temperatures will not stray too far from seasonal levels.
Northwest winds will increase tonight into Friday morning to near Small Craft Advisory levels, but overall falling just short. Winds and seas will increase again to at least advisory levels with the potential for gale force gusts Sunday into Monday, along with wave heigheights building to 10 feet offshore, as a frontal system crosses the waters. Tranquil boating conditions will follow by mid week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
The main window of concern is Sunday and Monday with a strong frontal system. Rainfall amounts have trended down slightly, with widespread 1-2 and isolated 3 inch amounts, heaviest northwest of the Big Bend. This translates into a low potential for river flooding.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11pm CDT/ tonight for Coastal Gulf.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.