Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Until Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers Likely. |
| Friday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Protected Waters Very Rough. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...East Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Protected Waters Very Rough. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Protected Waters Rough. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 413pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, Marine IRE WEATHER,Hydrology .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 - A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (90%) chance of developing into a tropical depression as it moves northeastward towards the Central Gulf Coast. Regardless of the track, there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall and flooding late this week and weekend. Be sure to check back often for the latest forecast throughout the week. - A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the coastal waters from through at least Thursday morning. Northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas building greater than 3 feet will be hazardous to boaters. .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 Current surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary draped across the northeastern Gulf over into Central FL with northeasterly flow across our area. Southwesterly flow just off the surface is helping the deep tropical moisture stream up over the shallow stable surface layer, providing a blanket of cloud cover along with passing light rain showers. Heavier rain and storms may develop closer to the stalled front over the waters but should remain mostly offshore. This pattern will largely continue for the next couple of days with the cloudy conditions keeping highs in the low 80s and low temperatures in the 60s. Long Term (Thursday night through next Monday) Issued at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 All of the focus for the extended term turns towards the potential for tropical development in the Gulf. An area of low pressure currently in the Bay of Campeche continues to look increasingly favorable for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next day or so. This system is forecast to drift over towards the Yucatan before turning north/northeastward and increasing in forward speed before eventually moving across the Central Gulf Coast sometime Friday or Saturday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring heavy rainfall to the region Friday into the weekend, with the greatest threats generally west of the Apalachicola and Flint rivers. With this tropical system, generally 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is forecast with isolated amounts near 10 inches possible. If realized, these totals are likely to lead to at least isolated flash flooding and river flooding especially given the soggy antecedent conditions. It is too early to determine what wind, surge, or tornado impacts this system may have (if any) to our local area. Marine Issued at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 Fresh to strong northeasterly breezes continue over the northeastern Gulf through at least mid-week. Seas will build to greater than 3 feet today and remain elevated through the rest of the week. A stalled front over the northeastern Gulf will cause scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to persist through the week, especially just offshore. Eyes turn to a developing tropical system currently in the Bay of Campeche for potential impacts late week into the weekend. Fire Weather Issued at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 A cold front stalling across the southeastern Florida Big Bend and northeastern Gulf today will keep the highest chances for rain mainly in Florida today and Wednesday. Brisk northeasterly winds develop today across much of the area with a drier air mass nudging into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Relative humidity values will generally drop to 40 to 55 percent Thursday outside of the southeastern Florida Big Bend where minRH will generally remain greater than 70%. A much wetter pattern is expected to return Friday into the weekend. There are currently no fire weather concerns. Hydrology Issued at 317pm EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2026 Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 to 12 inches have fallen over the last 5 days. Area rivers are on the rise, but very dry antecedent conditions before this recent event has allowed us to avoid river flooding so far. However, a tropical system is expected to move across the Central Gulf Coast late this week into the weekend, bringing 4 to 6 inches of rainfall to the area with isolated amounts near 10 inches possible. Areas generally west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers have a slightly higher heavy rainfall risk than areas east. Given the now soggy conditions, these additional rainfall totals would likely cause at least isolated flash flooding and some instances of river flooding. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT /7am CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. |
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