Apalachee Bay and Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: West 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: West 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 741pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 353pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 A bit of a reprieve from the rain is forecast this evening before more showers and storms develop along the Emerald Coast and pushes east early Tuesday morning. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern, but some gusty winds along the immediate coast are also possible. Additional showers and storms are forecast to blossom with the daytime heating across much of the area Tuesday afternoon with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s for high. Latest mesoanalysis shows a plume of 2" to 2.3" PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over Florida this afternoon. There's also a strengthening low-level jet at 850mb that's forecast to strengthen to 40-45 knots this evening before slowly weakening. This will create some gusty showers the rest of the afternoon into the evening. After a bit of a lull later this evening, another cluster of showers and storms is forecast to develop near the Emerald Coast overnight. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern within these showers and storms, but some gusty winds between 40 to 50 mph are certainly possible, especially along the immediate coast. More scattered showers and storms are expected to develop later Tuesday morning into the afternoon thanks to daytime heating. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will remain high, or around 2", so locally heavy rain is the primary concern. DCAPE isn't forecast to be too terribly high between 500- 800 J/kg. Still, some gusty winds of 40-50 mph are possible within the strongest showers and storms Tuesday afternoon. Long Term (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 353pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 A more summer-like pattern returns Wednesday and beyond with isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. Daytime highs warm into the lower to middle 90s. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to middle 70s each night. The H5 low trudges west as it moves around a sprawling H5 ridge over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. As it does so, it takes a lot of the moisture along with it. This takes the heaviest rain to the west of our area, but enough moisture lingers to produce isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon. Looking ahead to next weekend, a bit of H5 vorticity is forecast to be left behind over the Carolinas into Georgia. Where this area of vorticity eventually settles will be important to our forecast over the weekend into early next week. If it hangs out over land, it'll lead to more scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms near the end of the forecast period. On the flip side, if it is able to sneak into the northeastern Gulf then a weak low may be able to develop. This scenario would be more of a rain-maker for someone along the Gulf coast depending on the location of the low. Still lots of time to monitor model and ensemble trends with this system.| Marine Issued at 353pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 Fresh to strong westerly breezes continue this evening for the water west of Apalachicola where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Moderate to fresh westerly breezes remains possible over most of the northeastern Gulf through Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate westerly breezes return Wednesday and linger through the work week thanks to surface high pressure anchored east of the Florida Peninsula. Daily increases to 15 to 20 knots along the nearshore waters can be expected due to the seabreeze. Rain chances remain elevated through Tuesday before decreasing after Wednesday. Fire Weather Issued at 353pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, especially across the Florida Districts, through Tuesday afternoon. More summer-like showers ands storms are forecast Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday as the heat and humidity return. Fair to good dispersions are forecast Tuesday with good to excellent dispersions forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Hydrology Issued at 353pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 The wet pattern lingers through Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall along the Emerald Coast where an additional 1" to 2" of rain is forecast later tonight into Tuesday. Locally higher amounts of up to 5" of rain remains possible and could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time as the heaviest rain is forecast to fall along the immediate coast. We'll continue to monitor things, though. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2am EDT /1am CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1am CDT Tuesday for GMZ735-751-752- 770-772. |
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