Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Late.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 13 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Scattered Sprinkles.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
725am EDT Fri September 29 2023
High pressure will remain wedged over mainland North Carolina today and tonight while a surface trough lingers offshore. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week, with persistent coastal troughing.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 725am Fri...Not much change in the pattern from yesterday as upper low over the Great Lakes and troughing extending into the southeastern CONUS continues to slow trudge eastward ushering a steady tap of mid-level Gulf moisture over the coastal Carolinas. At the surface, cold air damming remains in place although it has weakened slightly as a weak surface low over the Ohio Valley shifts meanders east. Sharp coastal troughing continues to linger off the coast.
Expansive area of low stratus has fully enveloped eastern NC this morning and now extends well into the Pee Dee of South Carolina. Main challenge today is duration of cloud cover and its implication on temperatures. Global models are much more aggressive on showing clouds scattering out in the afternoon while hi-res models (particularly the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and Canadian HRDPS) show overcast conditions persisting through sunset tonight. In these scenarios the more pessimistic prognosis tends to win out and leaned the forecast on the cloudier side. Opted to knock high temperatures down a couple degrees further, closer in line to the HRRR/RAP consensus with yesterday's lower than expected high temperatures in mind. Like yesterday, on and off sprinkles are possible through the day, with more shower activity near the Outer Banks closer to the coastal trough axis. Any thunder risk will remain offshore.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Saturday
As of 355am Fri...Cloudy conditions will persist through Friday evening. There is the potential for some clearing primarily over the coastal plain as low pressure slowly deepens off the coast and lifts northward, resulting in a brief northwesterly shift in the winds which could usher in some modestly drier air making its way into the area. Persistent stratus is more likely across the Outer Banks. Lows will once again be close to average, in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s across OBX.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
As of 200am Friday... KEY MESSAGES
1) Watching for coastal impacts and dangerous beach conditions over the weekend
A very amplified, and anomalous, upper level ridge will remain in place over Central North America through the weekend, leading to a blocking pattern aloft. Across the Carolinas, we'll be sandwiched in between ridging to our NW and upper level troughing to our SE. This will setup a persistent, and deep, northeasterly flow through the weekend and into early next week. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the coast this weekend and shift away into the Western Atlantic by early next week. By the middle of next week, coastal troughing will redevelop off the Southeast US coastline, and may eventually migrate west into Eastern NC by Wednesday or Thursday.
Weather-wise, the most impactful period will be this weekend, and mainly confined to the coast. A modest pressure gradient will develop over the area as the above-mentioned surface low deepens off the coast. This will lead to increasing northeasterly onshore flow, enhanced at times by modest Cold Air Advection overtop still warm coastal waters. For the coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, this will lead to a persistent northeasterly breeze of 25-35 mph. For additional information on how this will impact the coastal areas, please see theTides / Coastal Flooding
Away from the coast, it will also be breezy at times, especially Saturday as a weak cold front moves through. Drier air working in should help to scour out the low clouds of late, but we may not fully clear out until Sunday. In fact, we may still hold onto some very light precipitation on Saturday with weak isentropic ascent along the weak front.
Going into next week, more sunshine plus increasing low-level thicknesses should allow temps to gradually warm up. Moisture will begin to increase once again as well, especially as the above- mentioned coastal trough edges closer. Medium range guidance differ on the evolution of the coastal trough next week, but it appears that will be our next chance of an appreciable, but still modest, chance of showers/storms.
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 4am Fri...Marine conditions have improved over soundside waters through the morning with north to northwesterly winds at around 10-15 kt. For coastal waters, seas still remain elevated particularly for the waters north of Cape Hatteras where regional buoys are reporting seas of 6-8 feet. Unfavorable offshore conditions are likely to continue today as overall pattern from the past couple of days remains largely the same. Winds will be slightly weaker than yesterday before increasing back to around 15 kt tonight as the offshore trough shifts further east. This will give seas a small window to subside but still remaining at around 6 feet through the period.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines north of Ocracoke Inlet remain unchanged from the last update. Primary change this morning was to extend SCA (Small Craft Advisory) south of the Inlet to around midnight Saturday, although the most hazardous seas will be confined beyond 10 nm for both zones.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 200am Friday... KEY MESSAGES
1) Extended period of elevated to dangerous marine conditions into next week
Low pressure will deepen offshore this weekend, then move away from the coast. As this happens, a tightening pressure gradient will develop across the region, with a longer fetch of northeasterly winds from the Western Atlantic into the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This will lead to another round of high seas and gusty winds. This will be very similar to the conditions experienced over the past few days. The least impacted area will be the southern coastal waters, especially closer to shore, but even there, there will be periods of 25kt+ winds. At the peak, seas of 5-10 ft can be expected across the northern and central coastal waters Saturday into Monday. Seas of 4- 8 ft will be common across outer sections of the southern coastal waters, with lower seas in the more protected areas closer to the coast. Because of the persistent nature of the northeasterly flow, seas will remain elevated well into next week. For inland rivers and sounds, waters will be choppy to rough, especially Saturday into Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 400am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES
1) Increasing confidence in minor to moderate coastal flood impacts this weekend into early next week
2) Dangerous beach conditions expected into early next week
Over the weekend, low pressure will deepen off the coast of the Carolinas, setting up a tightening pressure gradient, and increasing northeasterly onshore flow across the Outer Banks. The longer fetch and persistent nature of the flow will lead to an increased risk of dangerous breaking waves, rip currents, ocean overwash, and coastal flooding. Enhancing the water level rise will be the peak of the current King Tide cycle. Water level rises look to be similar to the past few days. However, with the King Tides peaking this weekend, the net effect could be water levels peaking just above what we've experienced the past few days. We'll continue to closely monitor this potential as it looks like another round of coastal flood and beach hazard headlines will be needed. Regarding the coastal flooding potential, at minimum it looks like advisory level rises, but with the King Tides, the potential exists for warning level rises for portions of the Outer Banks. This includes oceanside locations and soundside locations near Hatteras Village. Additionally, the King Tides will also likely lead to at least advisory level water level rises along the Crystal Coast and Downeast Carteret County and nearby tidal waterways. The peak water levels are expected during the Sunday morning and Monday morning high tide.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Monday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.