Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Mon...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Except 4 To 6 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Except 5 To 7 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Morning. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Except 5 To 7 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers And Tstms.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1222am EDT Monday July 23 2018
Synopsis: The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low pressure to the west and southwest through mid to late week. Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 1220am Mon...Increased probability of precipitation to likely all area next few hrs with decent amount of convection currently lifting N well inland. Models all show best coverage shifting closer to coast later tonight.
Prev disc...The beginnings of an "Atmospheric River" type of event is forecast to begin tonight and continue into mid week as a plume of tropical moisture characterized by PW values AOA 2" spreads into our area and interacts with a persistent mid level trough and associated pertubations which will lead to periods of enhanced rainfall. The PW on the 00Z MHX sounding was already close to 2" (1.96"). During the past 2.5 hours a north- south line of heavy showers and thunderstorms has developed from near Cape Lookout to the western Albemarle Sound. The high res models indicate this area expanding after midnight with the potential for significant local rainfall totals of 5+" by Monday morning. WPC has our area in a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday and just issued a MCD for possible flash flooding for tonight. Based on this, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch for coastal areas through Tuesday. The need for a Flash Flood Watch inland will addressed after the 00Z model run. Warm and muggy temperatures in the low/mid 70s expected overnight
.SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH 6pm TODAY/... As of 335pm Sunday...A plume of deep moisture with SSE/S low- level flow, coupled with a stalled frontal boundary, will set the stage for a wet day on Monday. Will have likely to categorical Probability of Precipitation for Monday as waves of showers and thunderstorms develop and move from south to north through the day. With precipitable water values above 2 inches and training likely, some localized heavy rainfall amounts will be possible. Cloud cover and rain will hold max temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas for Monday
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300am Sunday...A warm and moist southerly flow will persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.
Monday Night through Wednesday...Deep, warm, and moist southerly flow will persist through much of the upcoming week between broad low pressure aloft over the Deep South states and western Atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow aloft. Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this time. The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday Night through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over Eastern NC with an elongated axis of very high PWATs stretching from the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Given persistence amongst guidance over the past several runs, have increased PoPs slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday night through Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in HWO. While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear will be marginal for supporting widespread severe convection; thus expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential each afternoon.
Thursday through Saturday...The persistent upper trough to our west finally fills and shifts northeast from the Deep South states towards the Mid-Atlantic, with high pressure continuing offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern Great Lakes region, which will shift the moisture advection from S/SE to southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused each day with a more typical summertime pattern.
Temperatures Monday Night through Wednesday will be a few degrees below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the mid to upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps will rise to average late July temperatures by Thursday through the weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s throughout the week.
Short Term /Tonight and Monday/... As of 1220am Mon...No changes planned with gusty S winds and rough seas cont between high pressure to the E and low to the W.
Prev disc...Southerly flow 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt at times will continue over the waters through Monday as the gradient tightens between Atlantic high pressure and and low pressure inland. Seas 4 to 6 ft this evening will build to 5-9 late tonight and through the day Monday.
Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 345am Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to start the week with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well west of the waters and high pressure across the western Atlantic Ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately Monday night through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually fall below Small Craft Advisory levels by late week
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ095-098-103-104. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for NCZ045>047-080- 081-092>095-098-103-104.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound).
Small Craft Advisory until 9pm EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158