Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Near Shore, Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds, Becoming W 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough After Midnight. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Near Shore, Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Rough In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. |
| Wed...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 643pm EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Synopsis A warm front will lift north through the area tonight. A cold front will then sweep east across the area Sunday night. A reinforcing cold front will then cross the area Monday night. High pressure then returns for the middle to latter half of next week. Near Term - Tonight As of 630pm Sat... Key Messages - A few strong thunderstorms possible tonight and again Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening No significant changes to the forecast, as we continue to expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity overnight especially across the Coastal Plain as a warm front lifts north across the region. An upper level shortwave will translate east across the Upper Midwest through tonight. Well ahead of this feature, strengthening southerly flow will allow a warm front to lift north through the Carolinas. Increasing warm/moist advection along the advancing boundary should be supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from south to north after sunset. Despite nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer, increasing moisture aloft should allow a plume of modest elevated instability to develop in the presence of 40-50kt effective deep layer shear. The lack of stronger instability, plus only modest forcing, should limit the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. However, if any stronger/more sustained core can be maintained, there could be a low- end risk of small hail. Short Term - Sunday Through Sunday Night As of 215pm Saturday... ENC is expected to be warm-sectored for much of the day Sunday, with warm low-mid level temps aloft leading to a moderate to strong capping inversion. This plus a lack of appreciable forcing is expected to limit the risk of daytime convection. The one exception is along the developing seabreeze in the afternoon, as some short term guidance suggest this may support a late-day risk of isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario appears unlikely, the combination of MLCAPE of 500-1000j/kg and 50kt+ deep layer shear could support a marginal severe thunderstorm risk just inland of the seabreeze (primarily a wind risk). Of note, machine learning guidance has backed off some on the severe potential, but continues to show a low- end signal. We'll continue to monitor this potential should greater instability and/or stronger forcing be realized. Otherwise, it is expected to be breezy and unusually warm for early November, with highs warming into the mid to upper 70s inland. Closer to the coast, the developing seabreeze should cap highs in the upper 60s to low 70s thanks to the cooling shelf waters. Stronger frontal forcing arrives Sunday evening and this is expected to coincide with a plume of increasing moisture from the south. Instability will still be present, but should be tempered by the cooling of the boundary layer. This appears supportive of a band of rain and scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening into Sunday night. Despite more than adequate shear for thunderstorm organization, the lack of stronger instability should keep the severe thunderstorm risk low. Behind the front, colder air will begin to filter in late Sunday night, but the stronger push of colder air will come later. Long Term - Monday Through Saturday As of 215pm Saturday... Key Messages - The coldest air of the season arrives Monday night into Tuesday - First freeze of the season likely for many areas away from the coast Tuesday morning A strong northern stream trough will move to the East Coast early next week, bringing the coldest airmass of the season thus far. Behind Sunday night's cold front, strong Cold Air Advection and gusty NW winds will develop on Monday, with MaxTs in the mid 50s and MaxT perhaps failing to reach the 50 degree mark on Tuesday. For Tuesday, especially, this would be more than 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows on Monday night are expected to drop below freezing with upper 20s to lower 30s across most inland areas and mid 30s to around 40 along the coast. Of note, an area of low-mid level moisture beneath the upper low may support a brief period of light rain showers transitioning to light snow showers along the HWY 264 corridor late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Several ensemble members from both the Canadian and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) show this potential, as does blended guidance from the NBM. The forecast will continue to reflect this potential, but at this time, no impacts are expected. The high pressure axis will slide offshore late Tuesday with SW return flow developing, which may keep temps from dropping quite as cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and clear skies, areas that decouple could drop below freezing once again. High pressure remains centered across SECONUS Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant surface trough/front pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry and don't expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow will actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s. High pressure builds into the area Friday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Marine As of 215pm Saturday... Key Messages - Thunderstorms possible tonight through Sunday night - Deteriorating marine conditions late Monday into Tuesday with a period of gale-force wind gusts likely - Elevated to moderate marine impacts likely to last through mid- week The best boating conditions of the weekend are expected today, thanks to light winds (5-15kt) and seas of 2-4 ft. A significant pattern change is coming, though, which will lead to deteriorating marine conditions, especially early to mid next week. Southerly winds will begin to build late tonight as a warm front moves north accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms. Southerly winds will peak Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. During this time, southerly winds of 10- 20kt are expected, with occasional gusts to 25kt possible over the warmest coastal waters. Seas of 2-3ft through tonight will build to 3-5ft by Sunday evening. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night with winds flipping around to the NW by sunrise Monday. The strongest post- frontal winds arrive late Monday into Monday night as a reinforcing cold front moves through with renewed mixing and a strong pressure gradient. Probabilistic and deterministic guidance continue to show a strong signal for 20-30kt winds, with frequent gusts of 30-35kt. Should this signal hold, marine headlines will eventually be needed from late Monday into the middle of next week (strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) or Gales). Seas of 5-8ft are expected Monday night into Tuesday. This may be followed by a renewed surge of southerly winds on Wednesday, with seas peaking as high as 6-9ft south of Cape Hatteras. Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday of next week as high pressure builds in. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
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