Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 5 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 5 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. |
| Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 223am EDT Sat September 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Heat Advisory continues for portions of the area today. Severe weather possible again this afternoon and evening. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the area through Saturday. 2) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. Main threats damaging wind gusts, hail and localized flooding, with the greatest threat between 3-11 PM. 3) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking heat continuing today, with heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg this afternoon for most of the area. Heat Advisory continues for most of the area, with highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a strong cold front south through the Carolinas later today and tonight. This plus increased forcing along the cold front and other lingering boundaries should support an increased risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors, compared to previous days. PW's/TD's inc further and with lowering heights aloft, instability will be very strong. In fact, vals will be well above the average max for first week of September according to the KMHX sounding climatology, with ML CAPE vals advertised by the RRFS/ECM/NAM3k reaching or exceeding 4 kJ/kg. If convective timing aligns with frontal passage.shortwave passage in the afternoon, a significant severe weather signal may be met as this aligns with stout deep layer shear, possibly in excess of 35-45kt. Machine learning severe probs for damaging wind continue to tick up for parts of ENC. In addition to the severe threat, will have to watch for potential flash flood threat, as PWs surge to 2.25" or higher, and with the expected numerous convection, very heavy rain rates are possible with deeper convection and lend to instances of flash flooding, especially with potential for training of storms. KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and may see some scattered showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as we begin the work week with probability of precipitation less than 20% lasting through mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is forecast and is where our temps should be for the first half of September. Marine Dropped SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with winds diminishing. Latest obs show S-W winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Cold front currently draped through the Mid-Atlantic will slowly sink southward through the waters later today and into tonight. Winds will gradient veer through the day becoming N/NE behind the front, remaining SW ahead of it with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening. Some could be strong to severe, with freq lightning and strong wind gusts. Outlook (Sunday through Wed): Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will develop Sunday and continue into Monday, with seas building to 4-8 ft, highest across the outer waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely for portions of the waters. Winds and seas will begin to ease Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Climate Record High Temperatures for 09/05 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/2023 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/1983 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 91/2020 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 100/1983 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 96/1983 (NCA ASOS) NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 6pm EDT this evening for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. Marine None. |
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