Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly This Morning.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Rain.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Near Shore, Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Increasing To Rough In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Except 4 To 6 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough After Midnight. Rain.|
|Sat...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Extremely Rough. Rain Likely.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Extremely Rough. Rain Likely.|
|Sun...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt, Diminishing To 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Extremely Rough, Diminishing To Very Rough. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
621am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
High pressure will continue to build over the area today. A trough of low pressure will develop along the coast tonight and move offshore Friday. A strong coastal low will impact the area this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 620am Thursday...No changes to previous thinking. High pressure will remain over the area today while a trough of low pressure develops just off of the coast. Low level warm advection will result in coastal cloudiness spreading inland in the afternoon, and a continuation of scattered showers over the near shore waters. These showers will try to creep onshore but will be inhibited initially by very dry low level air. Thus will trim back Probability of Precipitation and aerial coverage of precipitation today to a slight chance immediate coast. Late today moisture advection will begin to increase by evening, so will indicate slight chance Probability of Precipitation inland just before 00Z. Looks like there will be a decent range in high temperatures with warmest readings in the 60s along the coast and cooler inland where northerly flow/Cold Air Advection will be most persistent, limiting highs to the low to mid 50s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Friday
As of 310am Thursday...The coastal trough is forecast to drift slightly inland and will coincide with good moisture advection and this should result in widespread showers developing in the evening, becoming most numerous after midnight in response to better divergence aloft. Will continue categorical PoPs. Expecting downpours at times as PW values (Precipitable Water values) increase to around 1.5". The coastal trough should be moving off of the coast early Friday morning. With clouds/onshore flow, temps will be slow to fall and not expecting a large diurnal temp change with lows inland 45-50 and mid 50s coast.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
As of 4am Thu...A major coastal storm is threatening to bring a variety of significant impacts to coastal Eastern NC this weekend. Another coastal storm system is possible by mid week next week.
Friday...At the surface, an inverted trough will be sharpening off the NC coast, while an upper level trough digs south into the Gulf Coast states. Favorable RRQ of 130+ kt jet streak over the Mid Atlantic coast will spur cyclogenesis off the Southeast US coastline. Increasing UVV/Fgen will make for a washout as widespread rain falls. Intensely heavy rain should not be an issue as instability will remain offshore, and have no mention of thunder. Have maintained categorical probability of precipitation through Friday.
Saturday through Sunday...Friday's initial surface low will shift east while a second surface low develops off the Southeastern U.S. coast, deepening below 1000 mb off the Carolina Coast. The upper low shifts farther east over the surface low and becomes more vertically stacked, aiding in further deepening on Saturday, with guidance continuing to suggest a sub-1000mb low slowly passing a few hundred miles off the NC coast through the weekend. Gradient winds around this low through the entire weekend will be strong and lead to potential major coastal flooding issues across the area. See the Coastal Flooding section below for details. At this time, high wind warnings appear likely for Downeast Carteret and OBX Hyde and Dare counties with wind gusts as high as 60 mph, with wind advisories likely for the next tier of counties inland from the coast. There will again be a gradient with rainfall across ENC, upwards of 2-4 inches along the immediate coast to 1-2 inches for interior portions. The rain will fall over a long period of time however, and at this time do not expect any flood concerns. Temps will remain mild due to cloud cover/precip, highs in the 50s inland, 60s along the coast, lows near 40 inland with 50s along the coast/Outer Banks.
Monday through Wednesday...The coastal low will gradually lift northeast away from the region on Monday with improving coastal conditions, while another shortwave trough digs into the Gulf States possibly developing another coastal low for Tuesday or Wednesday. Large spread amongst ensembles this far out in time, so have no higher than 20-40% chances for rain at this time.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 620am Thursday...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs continue to indicate N/NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 4-7 ft, highest south of Oregon Inlet. Will need to continue the current SCA (Small Craft Advisory) as seas have been slower to subside, thinking now it will be late this morning before they subside to 3-5 ft. Winds will gradually veer to E/NE around 15 kt today in response to a developing trough of low pressure with lingering 3-5 ft northeast windswell. The coastal trough is forecast to move just E of the waters by early Friday causing the flow to back to N/NE around 15 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 4am Thu...Very active long term period with dangerous conditions developing Saturday and continuing through the entire weekend. A coastal low will develop offshore Friday, with a second area of low pressure expected to deepen below 1000mb Saturday afternoon through Sunday as it passes a few hundred miles off the NC coast.
Winds will become north to northeast and increase to gale and storm force, with the highest winds expected over the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, where storm watches have been issued. Gale watch is in effect for the remainder of the marine areas. Seas will build late Friday night into Saturday with seas peaking 15-20+ feet Saturday night through Sunday morning. Very high seas will persist into the beginning of the work week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4am Thu...A complex low pressure system will impact eastern NC this weekend as it slowly moves northeastward off of the Southeastern U.S. coast. Persistent, strong north to northeast winds will lead to potentially significant coastal flooding along the soundside areas of the Outer Banks, mainly south of Oregon Inlet, Downeast Carteret County, the Lower Neuse River, and southern shores of the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Also, significant beach erosion and ocean overwash are expected along the Outer Banks, especially north of Cape Hatteras where portions of NC 12 could become inundated and impassible at times. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service on this developing weather situation.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for AMZ131-136-137-150-230-231. Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for AMZ152- 154-156-158.