Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Showers Likely. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 649am EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant chnages this forecast period. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An unsettled pattern persists through Thursday with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. 2) Drier and cooler behind a cold front Fri, becoming more unsettled again this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains firmly entrenched in the warm sector, with front stalled to the north/west and deep moist SSW flow continuing. The front will remain quasi-stationary through the middle of the week and should be the primary focus for convection through Wednesday. Away from the front, convection should mostly be seabreeze-driven...best chances along the coast early then shifting inland in the afternoon. The mean storm motion parallel to the front, plus moderate instability and 2" PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will continue to support a risk of intense rainfall rates and possible localized flooding. On Thursday, the front is forecast to move back toward the area as a shortwave moves off the Mid- Atlantic/New England Coast. This may offer at least one more day of unsettled weather, but perhaps with a focus across the southern half of ENC as opposed to the entire area. A modest increase in mid-upper level westerly flow through Wednesday should lead to a bump up in deep layer shear to 20- 30kt. This suggests an increase in the potential for storm organization each day during that time. This combined with moderate instability of 1000-2000j/kg MLCAPE may support an isolated severe thunderstorm risk each afternoon and evening, but weak mid level lapse rates will keep the threat to a minimum. On Thursday, shear is forecast to increase as the above- mentioned cold front moves through and this may lead to a slightly improved risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Analog, deterministic, and machine learning guidance continue to hint at this potential as well. Main concern will likely continue to be the potentially for locally heavy rain and minor flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is forecast to push through the area Thu night and early Friday, bringing drier and cooler conditions Fri as N-E flow develops. The front will then begin to lift back northward this weekend, potentially remaining stalled just to the south with an area of low pressure passing offshore, but still lots of uncertainty on how this will evolve. Proximity of front and strength of the high to the north, may keep things unsettled over the weekend, with highest probability of precipitation likely across the southern portions of the area. Marine Latest obs show SSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Seas remain elevated in combo of windswell and longer period NE swell from the northern Atlantic. Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt will continue through the period. Could see occasional gusts to 25 kt this evening, though looks too marginal for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. Outlook: Gradients will tighten on Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front that will push through the waters late Thursday with the potential for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the waters, the greatest probabilities will be south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound where SW winds around 20-30 kt will be possible with seas building up to 6-7 ft. Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday with shower and thunderstorms chances persisting. The front will push south of the waters Thu night into early Fri, with N-E flow developing behind it. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. Marine None. |
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