Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly This Evening. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 327am EDT Sunday August 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid temps persist across ENC into late in the week, peaking on Monday. 2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will pose a marginal risk for strong storms and isolated flash flooding today and tomorrow. 3) Climo precipitation chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday before the next front tracks across the area later in the week bringing more widespread unsettled weather to ENC. KEY MESSAGE 1...Previously mentioned front currently remains just south of the Crystal Coast this morning per the latest surface analysis with just some scattered low stratus noted across ENC mainly along and to the north of this front. This front should remain to our south to start our day. However, it is then forecast to gradually lift N and E later this afternoon and evening as an incoming shortwave well to the north in the Mid-Atlantic tracks ESE'wards and pulls the front northwards. As a result, temps remain slightly cooler compared to previous days with aforementioned low stratus this morning and potentially earlier start of convection muting temps today. Given this, no Heat Advisories have been issued today, although spots from Lenoir County southward may get close to 105 for an hour or two. Higher confidence in dangerous heat remains on Monday as the front lifts north and re-entrenches ENC in a very hot airmass with 1000-850 mb thicknesses once again climbing above 1435m and widespread Tds in the mid to upper 70s. This could nudge max heat index values above 110F in many areas. One caveat to the current forecast is that compared to earlier this weekend where we had higher mixing ratios, lower mixing ratios look to advect in from the west under zonal mid level flow so we could mix out slightly more than currently anticipated and therefore have slightly lower dewpoints than forecast. Even if this were to occur, much of the area looks to get solidly into heat advisory criteria so still expecting heat headlines just depends on which ones at this point. We continue to encourage anyone planning on spending time outdoors to stay hydrated and to limit exposure to the heat, if able. Another frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC Monday evening before stalling along the coast. Like this weekend, SW counties will likely remain hot and humid while Albemarle and vicinity see some modest relief. A more widespread cooldown, however, is on the horizon late week as a stronger cold front dives out of Canada and across the eastern CONUS. KEY MESSAGE 2...Previously mentioned front currently remains just south of the Crystal Coast this morning per the latest surface analysis with just some scattered low stratus noted across ENC mainly along and to the north of this front. This front should remain to our south to start our day. However, it is then forecast to gradually lift N and E later this afternoon and evening as an incoming shortwave well to the north in the Mid-Atlantic tracks ESE'wards and pulls the front northwards. This is forecast to shift more robust convection threat closer to VA but still leaving a favorable environment for sea breeze activity, as well as some upstream threats once again making their way towards the area in the evening. Evolution will be heavily driven by mesoscale factors owing to continued higher than average forecast uncertainty owing to large spread in CAMs. Either way there is a marginal risk for a few stronger storms across ENC with the strongest storms bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall to portions of ENC today. A cold front then approaches from the north and west on Monday evening. Out ahead of this front, a warm and moist airmass will be in place across ENC resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE but little in the way of shear. However, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remaining at or above 2" conditions will once again be favorable for a stronger storm or two to impact the area bringing a damaging wind, frequent lightning, and heavy rain threat. There could be two focuses for thunderstorm activity on Monday. The first will be the sea breeze which will be pinned near the coast given W'rly surface flow which could produce an isolated storm or two. A slightly better chance for storms comes from the incoming front Monday evening as storms upstream track E'wards into the area in the evening and overnight. KEY MESSAGE 3...A brief return to more climo Probability of Precipitation is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday with the seabreeze and stalled front offshore being the main focus for showers and thunderstorms. However as we get into the end of the week a second and stronger cold front looks to sweep E across NC. This will not only likely end our stretch of hot and humid conditions but it will also bring increased precipitation chances with strong to severe thunderstorms not out of the question. Given how far out this is, there are still several details to hammer out but will be monitoring trends in the forecast for any adjustments in timing and strength of this front in the coming days. Marine Isolated showers and thunderstorms are currently occuring across our outer waters (20+ NM) this morning. In addition to this, 5-10 kt NE-E winds and 2-3 ft seas are noted across our waters this morning as a stalled front remains just to the south. Continued benign winds and seas are forecast today as previously mentioned front eventually lifts N today turning winds to the SE, then S, and then SW this afternoon and overnight. Winds will also gradually increase closer to 10-20 kts tonight as well. Seas generally remain around 2-4 ft through the period. Otherwise expect at least a low end threat for additional showers and thunderstorms today and tonight across our waters with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in the strongest storms. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): The next focus for SCA conditions looks to be on Monday evening into Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches area waters. This, coupled with a healthy thermal gradient, will likely boost southwesterly winds back to 15-20 kt with some spotty gusts to 25 kt. At this time, coverage of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions appears too limited to need a headline but forecast trends will be monitored. Beyond this, next potential for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is late next week. Each day will bring a low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to area waters. Climate Record High temps for 08/17 (Monday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96 / 1988 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 93 / 2021 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99 / 1988 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93 / 1984 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101 / 1938 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97 / 1995 (NCA ASOS) NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
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