Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Except 3 To 5 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Rough Late.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Except 2 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. Showers.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough After Midnight. Showers Likely.|
|Sat...N Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming 30 To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Increasing To Extremely Rough. Showers Likely.|
|Sun...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
728am EST Wednesday Nov 13 2019
High pressure will continue to build into the area today and persist through mid week. A strong coastal low is expected to impact the area this weekend.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 620am Wed...No changes to previous thinking. High pressure will continue to build over the area from the north today with clear skies inland, and areas of clouds along the Albemarle Sound and Outer Banks. Strong northerly winds this morning will begin to diminish this afternoon. Will continue the coastal Wind Advisory through noon for gusts to 45 mph. The Freeze Warning remains in effect early this morning for the remaining coastal counties outside the Outer Banks that have not yet had a hard freeze as temps inland have dropped below freezing. Wind chill values are notably cold early this morning, in the teens to lower 20s for most locations. After a cold start and with continued cold advection, high temps today will be well be below normal. Highs will only be in the low to mid 40s which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH 6am THURSDAY/... As 330am Wed...High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight with light winds and clear skies inland, and partly cloudy skies and a northerly breeze along the coast. Temps will continue cold with lows inland in the mid and upper 20s and around 40 Outer Banks.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 330am Wed...High pressure will gradually slides offshore Thursday, then an inverted trough develops ahead of a coastal storm that develops off the Southeast coast Friday and persist through the weekend. Follow by another possible coastal storm for early to mid next week.
Thursday...An inverted trough develops Thursday as high pressure gradually slides offshore. Aloft, the southern stream shortwave moves towards the Carolinas and interacts with the inverted trough/boundary along our coastal counties, resulting in enhanced precipitation chances across the area Thursday afternoon. The 13/00z Hi-Res models are depicting the increase of rain versus the GFS/Euro. Therefore, increased Probability of Precipitation across the ENC to 30-40% for Thursday afternoon. Temps moderate a bit Thursday as low-level thicknesses increase, expect highs low/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/low 50s along the coast.
Thursday night through Tuesday...Models continue to have good agreement with the evolution on the upcoming coastal storm that develops off the Southeast coast. As the southern stream shortwave continues to move towards the Carolinas Thursday night, it will interact with a sharp northern stream shortwave trough that digs into the Lower Miss/TN Valley. This will result is a strong shortwave/closed low over the southeastern U.S. late Friday into Saturday interacting with the stalled front/baroclinic zone, resulting in cyclogenesis off the northeast coast of Florida lifting northeast towards the Carolinas. The latest 00z models are in better agreement with the placement and strength of this coastal storm compared to 24 hrs ago. Confidence increased with the significant impacts ENC will receive from this storm, especially along the Outer Banks. The area will start feeling the impacts Friday night, peaking Saturday, and gradually subsiding Sunday night. The impacts include rain, strong gusty winds, ocean overwash and beach erosion north of Cape Hatteras, and sound-side coastal flooding for the southern-half of the Pamlico Sound.
Afterward, the coastal low will gradually lift northeast Monday, while another shortwave trough digs into the Gulf States developing another coastal low for early to mid next week. Still too early say on the evolution of this potential next storm will transpire. Overall, expect highs in the 50s to 60s, except for Saturday as temps will be slightly lowers due to rainy, cloudy and windy conditions.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 620am Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Gale force northerly winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40 kt continue over the Sounds and coastal waters early this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish to 20-25 kt later this afternoon and then become NE and diminish to 10-20 kt tonight. Seas are currently peaking at 8-12 ft this morning. Seas will be slow to subside to 7-10 ft this afternoon. Seas will then subside faster late this evening as winds diminish and seas decrease to 3-5 ft around dawn Thu.
Long Term /Thursday through Saturday/... As of 330am Wed...Surface high will gradually slide offshore Thursday slides off the coast Thursday afternoon with an invert trough developing late in the day. Winds will be NE 1-15 knots, and becomes by Thursday afternoon with seas becoming 3-4 ft.
A coastal storm is forecasted to develop off the Southeast coast and move northeast and impacting our coastal waters Friday night through Monday. Winds will become northerly and slowly increase to Gale Force Friday night with winds peaking Saturday. Seas will build late Friday night into Saturday with seas peaking 15-20 feet Saturday afternoon/night. Marine conditions will remain rough through Monday as winds and seas will remain well elevated.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 330am Wednesday...Gale force northerly flow and higher than normal astronomical tides will combine to produce a minor sound side coastal flood threat across the southern Pamlico Sound region from the southern Outer Banks to Down-East Carteret county into early this afternoon. Water levels up to 2 ft above normal could result in inundation of 1 to 2 ft above ground level. Strong northerly flow will also result in rough surf north of Cape Hatteras, with potential for minor beach erosion and ocean overwash through this afternoon.
Looking ahead to this weekend, the models are developing a complex area of low pressure off the southeast coast which will persist through the weekend. Gale force N/NE winds, large dangerous seas of 15-20 ft, and the long duration of the event could lead to significant coastal impacts such as heavy rainfall, dangerous surf, sound side flooding adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and beach erosion and ocean overwash along the Outer Banks. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service on this developing weather situation.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Freeze Warning until 8am EST this morning for NCZ081-094- 194>196-199. Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for NCZ203- 205.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ131-135-150- 230-231. Gale Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156- 158.