Marine Weather Net

Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ158 Forecast Issued: 912 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
Rest Of Today...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Fri...E Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Except 3 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.
Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730am EDT Wednesday September 11 2024

Synopsis
High pressure continues to wedge itself across the Carolinas into the end of the workweek. Unsettled weather then returns this weekend as Hurricane Francine lifts north into the Deep South and a frontal boundary lifts north towards the area with unsettled conditions persisting into early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 245am Wednesday...Flat ridging aloft across the region today with surface high pressure centered off the New England coast ridging into the area. Dry weather will prevail today with greater coverage of high clouds and upper moisture associated with Hurricane Francine in the western Gulf of Mexico advects across the South and Southeastern states. Easterly flow will continue to bring seasonably cool temps with highs in the upper 70s coast to lower 80s inland and comfortable dew point temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday
As of 3am Wednesday...High pressure continues across the area tonight with high clouds continuing to lift across the area. The clouds are expected to be thick enough to limit radiational cooling allowing temps to be several degrees warmer over this morning, with lows in the lower 60s inland to around 70 along the coast.

Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 330am Wednesday...High pressure will continue to wedge down into the Carolinas into the end of the week keeping things mostly dry but also bringing below average temps and comfortable dewpoints to the area. Unsettled weather then returns this weekend as Hurricane Francine lifts north into the Deep South and a frontal boundary lifts north towards the area with unsettled conditions persisting into early next week.

Thursday through Saturday...No significant changes in the forecast as upper ridging will continue to build across the Eastern CONUS Thursday with a rex block developing towards the end of the workweek as an upper low associated with Hurricane Francine in the western Gulf of Mexico lifts into the Deep South and stalls somewhere over the Southeast through the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface ridge of high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will gradually weaken, but remain wedged across the Carolinas through Saturday. This will allow a stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf of Mexico and central FL to lift northward towards the area but remain just to the south. Depending on how far north the boundary gets this weekend will dictate the coverage of precipitation across ENC. Followed closely to NBM which brings slight chance to chance Probability of Precipitation across the CWA. With this high pressure ridge wedged across the Carolinas, east to northeast winds will prevail and result in seasonably cool temps with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday into midweek...There is a lot of uncertainty with how the pattern devolves over the latter half of the weekend and into next week as Francine dissipates over the Tennessee River Valley. Guidance continues to hint at a low developing off the Southeast coast Monday into Tuesday with most global guidance suggesting this low then tracking inland by midweek. Will note, given that blocking patterns can be notoriously difficult to predict, expect a lot of variability in model solutions in the coming days and as a result capped PoP's at SChc to Chc until more certainty in the eventual outcome of this lows exact track and strength comes into focus. Either way this likely sets up an unsettled pattern for ENC from Sunday on into midweek next week. Expect average to slightly below average temps from Sunday on into midweek given expected cloud cover, increased chance for showers and storms and continued E'rly onshore flow.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 245am Wednesday...High pressure centered off the New England coast will continue to ridge into the area today bringing mainly NE to E winds across the waters. Winds will be 5-15 kt this morning will increase to 10-20 kt this afternoon through night, strongest across the southern waters. Seas around 2-4 ft this morning will build to 3-5 ft tonight.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 330am Wednesday... Guidance continues to show a ridge of high pressure wedged across portions of the Carolinas through Sat while a stalled boundary currently well south of the area in the northern Gulf of Mexico lifts N'wards. Guidance has trended towards a tighter pressure gradient across our waters resulting in slightly stronger winds towards the end of this week and into this weekend. Given this have increased NE-E'rly winds across our waters to 15-20 kts by Thurs afternoon with winds changing little though this weekend. In addition to this, elevated seas now look to overspread our coastal waters starting Thurs as well with 4-6 ft seas forecast for all coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting by midday Thurs while 3-5 ft seas persist to the north. Seas will gradually increase across our coastal waters late this weekend with the approach of a developing low pressure system off the Southeastern Coast resulting in seas building to 5-8 ft across our coastal zones by Sun. As a result have recently hoisted SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) persisting into the end of the period. Will likely need SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet later this week as well given current trends.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2am EDT Sunday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Thursday to 2am EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.