Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Overnight. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 755pm EDT Sunday July 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for PamSound and coastal waters S or Oregon Inlet for MON night. Heat advisory has expired. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues into the beginning of the work week. 2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected each day. 3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds mid to late week into the weekend. 4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1...Today's forecast calls for lower Max temps by several degrees compared to yesterday's records, and thus AppTs will drop a few degrees as Tds remain relatively the same. Spots this afternoon have been bouncing right around the HeatAdvy criteria. Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guidance which is closer to reality as NBM continues several degrees too high with MaxTs. Not a completely dry forecast for the entire FA this evening as outflow from convection originating W of the area colliding with the seabreeze may lead to some short lived Probability of Precipitation up tstorms between 1700-2300edt over the Wern born of the FA. For tonight, increasing moisture with rising Tds behind a weak warm front lifting through the area will make for a very oppressive overnight with MinTs in the mid/upper 70s interior to low 80s coast. Monday, temps continue to drop a few degrees again as thickness decrease with the decaying ridge. MON MaxTs mainly in the low 90s inland to upper 80s coast. However, with the aforementioned higher Tds in place, heat indices may actually be a few degrees higher than today's readings. Contemplated extending the heat advisory through the Sunday night into the Monday afternoon period, though held off as convective initiation may occur by as early as noon Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and tstorms chances Monday into Tue, possibly into Wednesday as well. A series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening, and Probability of Precipitation continue in the 50-70% range, with much needed rain across a good portion of ENC expected. Wind shear will be very low, suggesting storm organization will be very limited. However, as with any summer storm, cannot rule out some wet microbursts as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be quite high, in the 2.25" range and stronger mature storms will carry the potential for some gusty winds toward the end of their life-cycle. Because of this, Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas along and W of HWY17 in a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe tstorms. Another round of decent covg of afternoon showers/storms possible Wednesday as the aforementioned boundaries may still be in place. Beyond mid week, Probability of Precipitation return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat indices 100-105 in the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week into the weekend, as ensemble mean heigheights rise back to above normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat indices to potentially AoA 105 deg again as a very humid atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week. KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range guidance hinting at ML CAPES at or above 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by PW's exceeding 2". Marine Light winds generally 10-15 kt will cont today, but some further increase in the afternoon to evening as thermal gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or below 25 kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across the outer zones. Outlook (Monday through Wed): Bermuda high pulls offshore into Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid- Atlantic serving to tighten gradient a bit and expect winds to increase to around 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft. Have issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for PamSound and coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet for winds 15-20G25-30kt as a result of the thermal gradient. The gradient relaxes Tuesday morning with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening front moves into the waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears to wash out, with any Nern flow behind it short lived with return flow developing as early as Wednesday evening. Climate Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 99/1990 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93/2020 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 104/1902 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1990 (NCA ASOS) NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 10am EDT Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Monday to 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. |
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