Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645am EDT Wednesday July 8 2020
An area of low pressure over South Carolina will slowly lift northeast along the North Carolina coast late today into Thursday. The low will then gradually lift north along the Mid Atlantic coast through late week. A weak front trailing the low will linger near the region through the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 640am Wed...Took out thunder mention for a few hours this morn based on rdr. Satellite shows cooling cloud tops over gulf stream from E of Cape Fear southward...some concern this may tend to limit moisture transport over region but should see some gradient pivot NW ahead of low so cont high probability of precipitation later today.
Prev disc...Low pressure currently centered over central SC will slowly lift NE toward the SE coast of NC by evening. Numerous rain shower and a few thunderstorms with rain will cont to spread N and W ahead of the low today with best cvrg southern coast early gradient spreading N thru the afternoon where have cat pops. Precip wtr values remain at or above 2 inches and some very heavy downpours are expected that will quickly drop 1 to 2 inches of rain...possible producing localized poor drainage flooding. Clouds and rain will keep temps mainly in the low and mid 80s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday
As of 240am Wed...The surface low will cont to lift NE near the NC coast tonight. The NHC will be monitoring the low for possible trop development with best chance of this occurring if it tracks over wtr. With the low crossing expect numerous rain shower and a few thunderstorms with rain coast with precipitation chances diminishing as head further inland. Will likely see some heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding issues with best chances again coast. Muggy lows in the 70s expected.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 340am Wednesday...Low pressure will move slowly northeast along or just off the coastal Carolinas through Friday resulting in unsettled weather for late week. An upper trough and surface cold front will cross the area late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms again possible this weekend. Unsettled weather continues into early next week with broad troughing in control over the region.
Thu through Friday...Surface low is forecast to move slowly over or just off the Carolinas Thu trough Friday. Guidance remains in reasonable agreement having the low track roughly along the NC coast. There remains disagreement on whether the low remains inland or manages to traverse the warm Atlantic waters. If the latter occurs the low could evolve into a subtropical or tropical system just off the coast of the Outer Banks. The National Hurricane Center places the chance of tropical cyclone development at 50 percent (medium) once the low emerges over the Atlantic.
Guidance still diverges on how quickly the low exits the region on Friday, with the GFS continuing to be the fastest of the ensemble and the NAM/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) slower. Given the GFS progressive bias leaned the forecast closer to the slower solutions. Deep moisture being drawn in by the low will promote increasing coverage and intensity of convection, and maintained high-end likely Probability of Precipitation for this period. Storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Thursday night ranges from 1-2 inches inland to 2-4 inches along the immediate coast. Temps should be near normal, with the potential for some below normal max temps for days with more extensive cloud cover and precip.
Biggest change to the forecast was to knock down Probability of Precipitation on Friday as weak upper ridging will build in behind the departing low, helping to keep convective coverage much more isolated than the previous days.
Saturday and Sunday...As the low departs the area, a broad eastern CONUS trough will develop with a strong shortwave and cold front moving through the area late Saturday into Saturday night. These features will result in slightly above normal temps in southwesterly flow, with showers/thunderstorms possible with the weak front Saturday evening/night. Shortwave energy is forecast to rotate through the upper trough although typical timing issues of these disturbances precludes anything beyond chance Probability of Precipitation for now.
Short Term /Today and tonight/... As of 640am Wed...No changes planned. Still low confidence for wind speeds tonight as some guidance including the NAM shows much stronger winds as the low deepens. Appears the NAM may have some convective feedback issues so will cont to lean more twrd GFS/ECMWF.
Prev disc... Low pressure over SC will lift slowly NE along the NC coast later today into tonight. As the low approaches today expect mainly SE winds 10 to 20 kts with seas building to 3 to 4 ft outer waters. Winds become a bit tricky tonight as models differ on exact track of low. For now went with consensus of winds diminishing southern waters and cont E to SE 10 to 20 kts northern tier. Some high res guidance shows winds ramping up stronger later tonight and this will likely depend if the low deepens over the warmer waters...NHC will be monitoring this system for tropical development as it reaches the coast. Sea will build to 4 to 5 feet outer central and northern waters tonight. Numerous rain shower and a few thunderstorms with rain expected this period with locally stronger winds and potential for an isolated waterspout.
Long Term /Thu through Sunday/... As of 350am Wednesday...High uncertainty in the marine forecast for Thursday and Friday as low pressure lifts along the coast. Like today, intensity of winds will be dependent on whether low tracks over waters or stays inland. There remains the potential for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the northern and central waters, but with such high uncertainty preferred to hold off on any headlines at the current time. Seas could build to 4-6 ft for northern and central waters, with 3-5 ft seas in all other waters. Other period of concern for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be Saturday/Sunday as front approaches and then stalls near the waters allowing for enhanced southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kt and seas reaching 6 feet at times for outer coastal waters.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to become be widespread tomorrow through Friday which could impact marine safety.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories