Marine Weather Net

Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ158 Forecast Issued: 1005 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight.
Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
1005 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A weak trough of low pressure will linger near the area through Wednesday. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest late week then stall and dissipate over the area this weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1235am EDT Wednesday July 28 2021

Synopsis
A weak trough of low pressure will linger near the area through Wednesday. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest late week then stall and dissipate over the area this weekend.

Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 1230am Wed...Based on current rdr trends and latest mdls delayed chance of shra/thunderstorms with rain southern coast a bit and lowered cvrg later as appears better forcing will be mainly over wtr.

Prev disc...Majority of convection across the area has ended at this hour, however high res guidance continues to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will redevelop near Cape Fear and move northeastward through coastal areas of Eastern NC overnight and into tomorrow morning. This redevelopment will likely be the result of some weak forcing moving into the area around the longwave upper trough located over most of the Northeast US. Have generally chance Probability of Precipitation overnight east of US 17, with the highest chances right along the coast and offshore. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 2" any training of storms could result in some isolated flooding as well. Overnight lows will be muggy and warm, remaining in the mid to upper 70s.

Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Today
As of 330pm Tuesday...A weak trough of low pressure will linger across the CWA tomorrow. With muggy dewpoints into the mid 70s and warmer highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s over most areas, scattered showers and storms are possible through the day, with again the best chance closer to the coast. Given the output from the 3km NAM and HRRR, Probability of Precipitation may be a tad too high for tomorrow, but newer models will tell the tale.

Long Term - Tonight Through Tuesday
As of 330am Tuesday...Fairly active pattern through the long term with multiple cold fronts expected to approach the area, stall, and have some cyclogenesis along the boundaries. Lull on Thurs and Fri lead to hot days with the potential for heat advisories being issued before another round of FROPA this weekend.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Heat is the highlight of this period as the upper level trough shallows and the ridge extends eastward providing more zonal flow aloft and our area in the warm sector of the weak low at the surface. 500mb heigheights reaching into the 590s. With mostly dry conditions and dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values are expected between 100 and 105 Thursday and 105 to 110 Friday, increasing the likelihood of a heat advisory late in the week. A cold front approaches the area late Friday. Still some disagreement between timing of the front and how well the airmasses stay together before washing out, but rain chances increase again late Friday afternoon.

Weekend...At the SFC, the weakened front passes through early Saturday while a broad upper level trough begins to deepen over NE CONUS. Another surface low develops along the front as it stalls over the region, keeping rain chances up. Increased cloud cover and showers keep highs in the upper 80s touching 90 in hot spots.

Early Next Week
Another cold front pushed by high pressure at the SFC building down from over the Great Lakes approaches the area, increasing the chance of rain again.

Marine
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Wednesday/... As of 1005pm Tuesday...At late afternoon, winds are SE over the northern waters and S/SSW elsewhere at 10 knots or less with seas 2-3 feet. Wednesday will feature SW winds at 10-15 knots with seas around 3 feet.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 345am Tuesday...Offshore high pressure will remain in control through the period. SW winds 5-15 kt continues through Thu morning, increasing to 15-20 kt late Thu into Friday. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft through the period, with 3-4 ft seas across the outer waters starting Thursday night during period of stronger flow from a tightened pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. Friday, central coastal waters to Cape Lookout experience winds 15-20kts with gusts reaching 25kts. Too early for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with so much uncertainty with timing of front but likelihood of one being issued is increasing.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...None.