Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Morning.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Mon Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Showers Likely.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710am EDT Sat May 26 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through next week. Subtropical Storm Alberto will move into the Gulf States early next week. The remnants of it will move into the mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week. The circulation around the system will keep a deep supply of tropical moisture and unsettled weather across the area through most of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 700am Sat...Surface analysis continues to show surface high pressure extending over the Southeast region from the Western Atlantic. Low stratus clouds and patchy fog have developed early this morning across the coastal plains and is expected to lift/erode away by mid- morning.
Overall, expect a typical summer time pattern with an increase of warm moist airmass under a SW flow today. After mid-morning, expect isolated to scattered sea breeze showers/thunderstorms mainly in the inland areas, while the Outer Banks should remain rain-free. Low thickness will be a little higher than yesterday bringing high temps into the mid/upper 80s and around 80 along the beaches
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 230am Sat...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish with the loss of daytime heating...leading to a dry night. Expect another muggy night with overnight lows in the 70-75 degree range
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 4am Sat...Main story will be heavy rain and threat for flooding, especially late Sunday night through Monday as tropical moisture moves into E NC. Beyond Mon, threat for ocnl rain showers and continued flood threat will persist as we remain in an unsettled pattern with warm and moist air mass in place.
Sunday...Have trended drier with fcst, as ridging will be in place courtesy of Bermuda high offshore with above climo heights. Another hot and humid day, with highs in the 85-90 degree range again inland, to lower 80s beaches. There may be just an iso shower or storm far SW zones, where slightly higher bndry layer moisture is present, though most areas will see partly cloudy skies and dry.
Sunday Night through Monday...Increased confidence this period with threat for heavy rain and localized flooding, as models converging on piece of energy associated with the tropical system in the Gulf moving through E NC. Layer moisture increases dramatically by late Sunday night and esp Monday with advertised Pwats inc to at or above 2 inches, and layer streamlines exceeding 15 g/kg, indicative of tropical air mass across E NC. Forcing for ascent with large divergence aloft as the area will be under RRQ of upper jet streak to the north. These ingredients combine to bring up to a few inches of rain possible this period. Have added +RA wording to grids and will highlight heavy rain threat in HWO. Inc Probability of Precipitation trend through late Sunday night with categorical wording for Monday. Deep warm cloud layer and long skinny CAPES will add to the heavy precipitation threat with convective thunderstorms embedded in the showers, which would bring localized heavier bands of rain showers.
Monday Night through Friday...Fcst becomes less certain this period, as the area will still be under threat for showers and storms indirectly associated with the tropical system over the deep south. Broad cyclonic flow will persist with pieces of energy from the main tropical system swinging through the region. Will maintain the higher chance probability of precipitation for this period. Atms will continue quite warm and very humid. Highs this period generally in the mid/upper 80s inland to low 80s coast. Lows will be 70-75, remaining well above climo.
Short Term /through Sat/... As of 700am Sat...Marine forecast is great shape; no update needed. Latest buoy obs are showing SW 5-10 knots and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will continue to dominate the coastal waters under a southwest flow. Winds will range 5-15 knots through early afternoon, then increase to 10-20 knots due to land/sea thermal gradient. Some gusts will approach 25 kt Sat afternoon and evening on the Pamlico Sound and northern waters. Seas will average 2-4 feet
Long Term - Saturday through Wednesday: As of 4am Sat...The SW winds will generally remain 10-20 kt through Tuesday, with seas building close to Small Craft Advisory range (4-6 ft) later Monday into early Tue. Seas should subside some later Tuesday into Wed
As of 230am Sat...KMHX radar is down until further notice, awaiting parts
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories