Marine Weather Net

Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ158 Forecast Issued: 919 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
Overnight...Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop Late.
Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Except 3 To 5 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Fri...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Except 5 To 7 Ft Near Shore. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Showers Likely.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Except 4 To 6 Ft Near Shore. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Except 2 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Except 2 To 4 Ft Near Shore. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1220am EST Thu Feb 22 2024

Synopsis
High pressure will center overhead tonight, and then shift offshore tomorrow. The next frontal system will impact the area beginning Friday morning. High pressure returns by late weekend into early next week.

Near Term - Overnight
As of 925pm Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Quiet conditions will continue tonight with high pressure building in producing mostly clear skies. Overnight, the high will become centered over Eastern NC with winds decoupling and near ideal radiational cooling conditions developing. Temperatures, will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across most inland areas. Along the immediate coast, a light breeze will keep temps from radiating as much, but still lows will be in the mid to upper 30s here.

With the strong radiational cooling overnight, areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop by early tomorrow morning and could become locally dense at times around sunrise. Fog will be somewhat slow to burn off tomorrow morning as well due to the light flow.

Short Term - Thursday
As of 4pm Wed...High pressure will shift offshore tomorrow and light return flow will develop. Increasing low level heights will lead to milder conditions with highs expected in the low to mid 60s inland, and the mid to upper 50s along the immediate coast. Mostly sunny skies expected in the morning, but mid/high clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon ahead of the next storm system.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 4pm Wednesday...A series of shortwaves embedded in trough aloft swing through late this week and this weekend with a cold front crossing the area Friday, bringing the next best chance of rain. High pressure builds overhead again early next week.

Winds build Fri as shortwave swings through the base of the upper level trough digging S toward the Great Lakes through Canada. The front swings through the Plains Thurs, reaching the Wern reaches of NC early Friday. Cloud coverage increases Thursday into Fri as SWerly flow above the BL develops, bringing more moisture off the Gulf of Mex. The front is expected to finally bring a few showers after midnight Thursday night into Friday but storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast remains less than impressive at less than half an inch. With FROPA occuring around peak heating, some instability may be in play which could lead to some thunder. For now, have kept the land forecast thunder free, but have introduced thunder to the offshore grids where more instability could be realized off the GStream. Will continue to monitor thunder potential for land precip. Front pushes offshore after sunset Friday night leading to a Cold Air Advection regime overnight. High pressure briefly builds over the FA behind the front. Continue mention of SChc showers Sat afternoon as the second shortwave traverses the trough aloft, overrunning the cool high pressure building over the FA which could lead to some very light, widely scattered periods of precip. The high pressure pushes offshore Sunday afternoon leading to the start of another SWerly flow regime ahead of the next front to impact the area late next week.

Temp forecast displays a warming trend continuing through the work week with MaxTs in the mid 60s Thurs and Fri in the Serly flow ahead of the front. We cool off briefly behind the front this weekend, mid 50 Highs, AoB freezing Sunday morning before warming quickly early next week, highs in the 70s by Tues.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 610pm Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Winds will briefly weaken tonight and tomorrow, though Small Craft conditions will continue across the coastal waters due to increasing long period swell from a distant strong low pressure system.

Winds this evening will subside to 15-20 kts with some stronger gusts across the outer central waters. Overnight winds weaken substantially becoming N 5-10 kts by sunrise, and then become light and variable the rest of the morning. SW flow develops tomorrow afternoon and strengthens to 10-15 kts late in the day.

Seas will remain 5-8 ft tonight with long period swell building in to replace the decreasing wind wave. Waves will then hold mostly steady tomorrow as the long period swell peaks.

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 4pm Wednesday...Less than pleasant boating conditions with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) active across the coastal waters into this weekend. Front brings strengthening winds and likely rain showers with tstorms possible near GStream after midnight Thurs through Fri.

Winds...Increasing winds Thursday night to 15-25G30kt. The next front passes through area waters late Fri with the strongest winds out ahead of the front. Winds turn NWerly 15-20g25kt abrupartly behind the front late Friday night becoming more Nerly through the day Saturday. Nerly winds persist but quickly weaken Sunday as high pressure builds over area waters.

Seas...Strong, long period, Eerly swell from the low pressure system well offshore peaks Thursday night continuing heightened seas, 5-9ft N Ocracoke Inlet, 5-7ft S except for nearshore waters S of Cape Lookout, 2-4ft. Strong short period wind waves develop Fri ahead of the front building seas from S to N, peaking 6-8ft Nern waters, 8-12ft central, 5-10ft Sern. Seas subside and therefore SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) begin dropping off Saturday.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4pm Wednesday...A high surf advisory has been issued for OBX beaches from Cape Hatteras N, starting tonight lasting into Friday morning. Strong easterly swell of 6-9 ft @ 11-13sec from a low pressure system well offshore will lead to a risk of beach erosion and minor ocean overwash Thursday and Friday during times around high tide. The threat will be greatest in the vicinity of compromised dune structures. The threat Thurs will be confined to beaches along the OBX from Cape Hatteras N, with Ocracoke being somewhat sheltered from the swell that will have a slight Nerly component to its approach. Friday, however, strong wind waves develop in the strengthening SWerly winds ahead of the front, which could lead to erosion and overwash concerns for the Sern side of Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8am EST Friday for NCZ203-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Sunday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.