Marine Weather Net

Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ158 Forecast Issued: 321 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming Ne Late. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then Diminishing To Light Chop Late. Showers And Tstms Likely This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.
Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.
Sat Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247pm EDT Monday Jun 24 2024

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move through the area this evening, with drier high pressure briefly building in behind it for Tuesday. High pressure then restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into the weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 245pm Mon...Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for eastern NC through 8pm this evening. Latest analysis shows cold front approaching the coastal plain this afternoon while the mid level trough moves through NC. Convection continues to blossom with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and expect coverage to continue to increasing and pushing eastward over the next few hours. There is potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning and minor flooding. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE values 2-2500 J/k and 20-30 kt of shear. PW values (Precipitable Water values) are forecast to exceed 2" as low level lapse rates steepen with heating. This will favor multi- cell cluster development with damaging wind gusts and hail around 1" possible. A supercell or two could develop with the potential for a very strong wind gust and hail to 1.5". The area most favorable for this would be north of Highway 70 in the region of strongest shear. In addition to the severe threat, the potential for locally heavy rains will exist as PW values (Precipitable Water values) exceed 2" favoring torrential downpours. Some minor poor drainage flooding will be possible as the CAM's indicate the potential for local rainfall of 2-3" in regions that receive frequent downpours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be widespread east of Highway 17 early in the evening and should be mostly offshore by 4Z as a weak cold front crosses the area this evening. Severe threat should wind down around 00Z as loss of heating occurs. Some brief relief from the heat is expected as lows inland cool into the upper 60s.

Heat will also be a concern the next few hours with highs in the mid 90s inland combined with dewpoints in the 70s and closer to 80 along the coast. Expect Heat Index values 100-105 degrees for the next few hours outside of convection.

Short Term - Tuesday
As of 245pm Mon...High pressure will build in Tue, providing a slightly cooler and drier airmass with low level easterly flow. Veering onshore flow will keep the coast in the mid to upper 80s for highs, and upper 80s to low 90s inland under mostly sunny skies. Still looks mostly dry, but can't rule out an isolated shower across the southern area during peak heating closer to the weak boundary.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 330am Mon...Heat and humidity continue this week with high pressure ridging into the area. Near normal precipitation chances (scattered afternoon thunderstorms) are expected with rain likely Thursday as a cold front moves into the area.

Wednesday through Friday...Local area of high pressure will become absorbed into the massive western Atlantic ridge on Wednesday with warm moist southerly flow returning to the Carolinas. Thicknesses build rather quickly Wednesday, which will allow for temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, and low 90s along the coast. Though it will be humid, some mixing of drier air above the surface during the afternoon will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect values to range from 100 to 105 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (50-60% chance) throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning. Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass will build in with high pressure to the north.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday ahead of the front, but developing convection should limit highs to only the upper 80s to low 90s. Even still heat indices will again top 100 degrees as dewpoints remain very high through the day. Slightly cooler conditions expected Friday with onshore flow, and we will see highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland.

Saturday and Sunday...Heat and humidity look to build again this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. We'll have highs reaching the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Dewpoints in the 70s both days will lead to heat indices reaching at least 100 to 105. In this moist and unstable airmass at least scattered chances for thunderstorms will be possible, but greater chances may arrive late Sunday as yet another front moves into the region.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 245pm Mon...Latest obs show WSW-SW winds 10-20 kt, strongest south of Hatteras with seas 2-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft south. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound with gusty winds and elevated seas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for the rivers, sounds and coastal waters through this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning will be possible for the next few hours. A cold front will move through the waters this evening, pushing offshore tonight. As the front crosses the area this evening, there will be the potential for a brief period of northerly winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt immediately behind the front, then winds will diminish to NE 10-15 kt late with seas diminishing to 2-5 ft. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with easterly winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 330am Mon...Decent boating conditions expected this week with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a cold front moves through.

Winds then veer to the south Wednesday at 5-15 kts, and then increase to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the waters during the day Thursday from north to south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and remaining SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to E flow is then expected Friday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)- 154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.