Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Early This Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft This Afternoon. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Early This Afternoon, Then Increasing To Choppy Late.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. A Chance Of Tstms With A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 938 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will slide offshore today with a warm front lifting north through the region. A cold front will approach from the west tonight then cross the region late Monday and Monday night. High pressure will build in mid week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
941am EDT Sunday May 9 2021
High pressure will slide offshore today with a warm front lifting north through the region. A cold front will approach from the west tonight then cross the area late Monday and Monday night. High pressure will build in mid week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 940am Sunday...Mid level clouds are moving off the coast this morning, as a stalled front remains to the south. The front will return north today as high pressure slides offshore, with increasing southerly flow through the day. Highs expected into the low to mid 80s inland, and the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Monday
As of 3am Sunday...Cold front will approach from the W keeping area firmly in warm sector with cont SSW winds that will remain strong near the coast. Moisture will increase a bit thru the night but for now looks like will remain dry...did increase pops northern tier to just below slight chance as cpl models shows spotty shra possible twrd daybreak. Lows will be mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As of 330 Am Sunday...Another fairly active pattern through the week: strong cold front approaches Monday, building high pressure midweek leading to a late-season CAD event, and another weak shortwave trough to affect the area to end the week.
Monday...SFC low just off the New England coast swings its cold front through the area late in the afternoon, increasing the likelihood of rain and chances of thunderstorms ahead of the front in the afternoon into the evening. Highs Monday are the warmest in the period reaching the mid 80s. Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place with decent moisture ahead of the front, good forcing, and heating allowing moderate instability to develop throughout the day. Moderate shear indicates the ability for semi-organized storm clusters to develop. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats with this event. Showers behind the front linger and potential for thunder becomes limited to the frontal boundary as it crosses coastal areas overnight.
Midweek...The cold front stalls well to our south through midweek with high pressure building in from the north setting up a late-season CAD event keeping temps cool, highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Guidance is catching on to the CAD event and subsequently are trending their temps down. Have kept temps on the colder side of trusted guidance but have not gone as low as some of the extreme outliers.
Thursday And Friday
High pressure shifts offshore the VA coast overnight Thursday. Guidance has backed off on the deepening of a coastal low and instead are showing weak shortwave troughing further south and not deepening the system until it is well offshore of SC. Probability of Precipitation was lowered a bit to reflect this. Thunder was removed from the grids for now with instability being severely limited.
Weekend...Drying trend with temps warming back up, highs reaching the 80s by Saturday.
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 620am Sun...No changes with warm front lifting N this morning with increasing SSW winds from late morn on.
Prev disc...Weak cold front will stall near southern tier early then lift N as a warm front today. Light winds early will become SSW and increase thru the day. By late aftn/early evening winds will be in the 20 to 25 kt range and have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) starting all waters late today. Gusty SW winds of 20 to 30 kt will cont tonight as cold front approaches from the W. seas of 2 to 4 feet this morning will reach 4 to 6 ft by evening. Seas cont to build reaching 6 to 9 ft tonight...highest outer central/southern waters.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 345am Sunday...SW winds remain strong Monday with gusts up to 30kts ahead of the next approaching cold front. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions cont, and a prolonged fetch will keep seas 6-8 feet Monday. Front sweeps offshore late Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in winds veering northerly and weakening through Tuesday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions should come to an end early Tuesday morning. High pressure dominates mid-week, improving conditions until a shortwave trough transitions offshore of SC, building seas in the southern waters through the end of the period.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 8am EDT Monday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 8pm EDT Monday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 11am EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 1am EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.