Marine Weather Net

Cape Lookout to Surf City, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

NW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ158 Forecast Issued: 105 PM EST Thu Dec 04 2025

This Afternoon...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.
Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And N 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight.
Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Rain.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain.
Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain.
Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. A Chance Of Rain.
Mon Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209pm EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Synopsis
Weak front crosses the area this evening, stalling offshore to the south. Another low pressure system will develop and travel along the boundary, impacting the Carolinas Friday morning into Saturday. The front will remain stalled off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 130pm Thursday... Key Messages

- A brief wintry mix possible across extreme NW sections of ENC Friday morning

- Below normal temperatures to continue into this weekend

A subtle, and dampening, shortwave is forecast to translate east from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast over the next 24- 36 hours. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will slide south through ENC this evening, then stall offshore tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to develop along the stalled front, scooting quickly east to the south of ENC on Friday. North of the stalled front, a quick-hitting round of WAA-driven precipitation is expected to overspread the area late tonight through Friday evening. In addition to the strong WAA, strong isentropic ascent and modest low-mid level frontogenesis within a deep layer of moisture should support a period of moderate precipitation rates on Friday, with liquid equivalent amounts of 0.50"-1.50" expected. The highest rainfall totals (1"+) are expected along the coast where the greatest moisture and strongest low-level forcing will overlap.

Across the far northwestern sections of ENC, temperatures may cool enough to support a very brief period of wintry precipitation. Forecast soundings show a deep, but just above freezing, isothermal layer, with low-level temps near or just above freezing. At face value, this suggests a cold rain, or perhaps a brief period of freezing rain, where temps are below 32. However, if the isothermal layer ends up slightly cooler than forecast, the precipitation type would tend to favor snow, even where temps are just above 32. For now, the forecast will reflect a rain/snow mix across extreme western Pitt and Martin Counties from 4am-9am Friday morning. Given the marginal thermal profiles with this event, no winter-related impacts are expected. Even in the scenario where temps aloft are slightly cooler, the residence time of temps near freezing appears to only support a max of a dusting to half an inch of snow accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Temperatures will be well below normal on Friday thanks to widespread clouds, precip, and northeasterly flow.

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
As of 130pm Thursday... A frontal boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper level waves moving through the region, there's the potential for areas of very light precipitation at times, especially across the southern half of ENC. Guidance differs on how much dry air can work in behind Friday's system, which leads to lower confidence in where/if light precipitation will occur on Saturday. Where precipitation occurs, temperatures should remain warm enough for all liquid, but we'll closely monitor this in case drier low-level air can work in, leading to lower wet-bulb temps and perhaps a conditional risk of some light wintry precip.

Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
As of 0230 Thursday... Key Messages

- Unsettled pattern through at least Monday - Drier midweek

The forecast becomes more unsettled as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast into early next week. More uniform temps across the FA SAT as the offshore low pulls high pressure over ENC from NW to SE; MaxTs upper 40s inland, low 50s along the coast. Slight chance/low end chance Probability of Precipitation will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA (County Warning Area) with lingering Probability of Precipitation with passage of cold front expected Monday. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday's front and troughing aloft that plagues ECONUS this weekend pushes offshore. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the immediate each night, coldest MON night/TUE am.

Marine
As of 130pm Thursday... Key Messages

- Elevated winds and seas this evening through Friday evening

- Strong, potentially gale-force, winds possible Monday

A cold front will slide south through the area this evening, then stall south of the Crystal Coast tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to ride along the front on Friday, moving away from the coast by Friday night. The tightening pressure gradient north of the low appears supportive of a period of 20-25kt winds and elevated seas, mainly north of Ocracoke Inlet. While a bit marginal, the setup still appears worth keeping a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the central and northern coastal waters from this evening through Friday evening. Guidance did trend down with winds, though, and the forecast reflects a slight adjustment down. Lighter winds are then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in.

Seas are forecast to build to 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet through tonight. South of there, seas of 3-5ft are expected by tonight. For all waters, seas should lay down to 2-4ft by late Saturday.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain. On the backside of MON's low, strong Nerly winds will develop. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely over all ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales possible for all coastal waters and maybe larger sounds.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 3am EST Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 5am EST Saturday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154.