Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 315pm EDT Wednesday April 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. Increased fire danger statement is in effect from 11am to 7 PM across the interior coastal plain. Only minor changes have been made to the forecast this morning. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increased fire danger statement is in effect until 7pm this evening across the interior coastal plain. There is potential for another IFD issuance tomorrow (THU), but conditions are more marginal. 2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend. 3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines. KEY MESSAGE 1...Increased fire danger statement is in effect until 7pm this evening across the interior coastal plain. There is potential for another IFD issuance tomorrow (THU), but conditions are more marginal. No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban, as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Despite moistening return flow which has brought MinRHs levels above usual IFD criteria, given the ongoing drought conditions, dry fuels, and strengthening afternoon winds, another IFD remains in place per the request of NCFS. The IFD is in effect until 7pm for the interior coastal plain. MinRH values appear lower tomorrow, but forecast calls for slightly weaker Serly winds. NCFS has set thresholds (already above normal IFD criteria) for a potential IFD for THU for areas MinRH <= 40% AND wind gusts >= 20mph. Day shift today has opted to give the midnight crew one more cut at the winds Td/RH forecast for THU before making a decision on whether or not to issue an IFD. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend. Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precis associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFC), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep Probability of Precipitation below mentionable all the way through SAT night. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend, with MaxTs mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. MinTs generally 60. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines. A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to eliminate Probability of Precipitation by MON morning. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week. Marine Rinse and repeat from previous days through this evening. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and 4-5 ft seas through this evening, winds calming some to 10-15kt, allowing seas to lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters, far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound, and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not strong enough to warrant the issuance of a <6hr long SCA (Small Craft Advisory) this evening afternoon. Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt during peak heating. FROPA is expected late SUN into MON and represents the next best chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. Probability of Precipitation remaining in place potentially into middle of next week, but likely outside of 20nm, as an area of low pressure develops off the FL coast and travels along the boundary well out to sea. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
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