Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft After Midnight. Rain Likely In The Evening. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 518pm EST Wednesday Jan 23 2019 Synopsis: The low will drag a trailing cold front across the area on Thursday as it passes by to our north and west. Weak low pressure will approach from the west Friday, before crossing the region Friday night. A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the region Saturday. Low pressure will track through southeastern Canada Sunday, before a cold front sweeps across the region Monday. High pressure will follow on Tuesday. Yet another area of low pressure will pass by to our north and west Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning 515pm Update...Have added portions of interior southern ME and Belknap County NH to the winter weather advisory until midnight. Temperatures on many mesonet stations still hovering a couple degrees either side of 30 at this time with a intermittent light rain beginning to fall. It should warm up enough by midnight to mitigate the threat. Previously... A complex mixed precipitation event will impact the region tonight into tomorrow. Low pressure currently over Michigan will move northeastwards up the St. Lawrence river valley. Ahead of the low pressure a warm front is lifting through the region and warm air is already streaming in aloft with higher elevation stations already well above freezing. The southerly flow is also being reflected at the surface through the coastal plain and foothills with a steady increase in both temperatures and south winds. Some areas of the foothills remain below freezing, as does the road surface temperatures and for this reason have left light icing in the forecast through evening and a winter weather advisory remains in place. Meanwhile north of the notches the mountain valleys remain in an entirely different regime. Berlin, Rangeley, and Jackman are barely pushing 20F with the cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) holding on tight. Have tried to account for this temperature in the overnight trends with the mountain valleys holding onto the cold air well into the morning hours tomorrow. With this increased below freezing time comes an increased risk for freezing rain and have extended the winter weather advisory through mid morning to account for it. Further south the foothills will likely rise a bit faster as they are exposed tot he southerly flow and the advisory will end around daybreak there. Across the southern portion of the area the warm air moving over the existing snowpack will lead to fog which may become dense. Will need to monitor conditions for a potential dense fog advisory overnight Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night Tomorrow expect the heavier precipitation to move into the region as we remain in the warm sector of the cyclone. A very impressive low level jet will move through midday ahead of a cold front. While winds may exceed 65kts at just a few thousand feet getting that wind to the surface may be difficult with the surface based inversion expected to be in place. The most likely location for stronger winds will be along the coast where the temperatures are warmest and the southerly winds can accelerate over the waters and thus a wind advisory has been issued for this area. Additionally heavier precipitation along the front may also help to mix down a few gusts to 40-45mph during the middle of the day. Temperatures will be much warmer than the past week but have not been as bullish as some guidance would suggest. With the south flow moving over 40 degree water have kept highs east of Portland in the mid 40s with only southern New Hampshire reaching 50F. Additionally the warm temperatures over a cold snowpack will lead to widespread fog and a dense fog advisory may be needed for tomorrow evening. A cold front will sweep through the region late tomorrow night changing precipitation back over to snow before coming to and end Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday Cyclonic flow aloft continues over the region on Friday with a trough of low pressure approaching the region. This will allow for mainly mountain snow showers over the region. As the northwest flow increases with the passage of a secondary trough, upslope snow showers will develop Friday night across the higher terrain. Cold, but mainly dry conditions will follow on Saturday. Moisture will enter a weak ridge of high pressure, so clouds will be over the region. Mainly cloud conditions will continue Sunday as low pressure approaches from the west. This area of low pressure will pass well north and west of the region Sunday night, dragging an Arctic front across the region. This will trigger more scattered snow showers, mainly in the mountains. Cold conditions will return to the region Monday on gusty westerly winds. Yet another area of low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday, before passing through Southeast Canada Tuesday night. This system will bring another front to the region, this time with more moisture than the preceding frontal passages. Any snow will change to mixed precipitation from south to north late Tuesday night and early Wednesday as 12Z model guidance suggests warm air will move poleward during this period across western Maine and New Hampshire. More Arctic air to follow on Thursday. Marine Discussion Short Term: Increasing southerly flow will reach storm force on the eastern waters as a very strong low level jet moves through the region. Have increased seas to 17-19ft along the outermost waters. In the bays and further west have left gales as the core of the jet will pass to the east however a few gusts to storm force are possible. Long Term: Gusty northwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Friday night and again on Monday. A strong southerly gale may develop Tuesday night with gusty westerly winds to follow on Wednesday Hydrology With a storm total precipitation amount just over an inch across southern New Hampshire do not expect any widespread flooding concerns. A few rivers in this region may approach action stage. Additionally urban nuisance flooding due to frozen and clogged drains and culverts may also occur. With the warmer temperatures and rainfall will have to keep a close eye on the rivers for any potential ice jams. Due to the significant snowpack expect most of the rainfall to be absorbed and not runoff and this combined with the fairly brief period of warmth should limit river rises and ice jam potential however the more ice jam prone locations will need to be monitored Tides / Coastal Flooding High astronomical tides will continue on Thursday. High water levels will combine with building seas to possibly produce beach erosion and splash-over near the time of the early afternoon high tide. A coastal flood statement has been issued for early Thursday afternoon NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8am EST Thursday for MEZ012>014- 020>022. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ018- 019. Wind Advisory from 8am to 9pm EST Thursday for MEZ023>028. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for MEZ007>009. NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5am EST Thursday for NHZ001>007- 011. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NHZ009. Wind Advisory from 8am to 9pm EST Thursday for NHZ014. MARINE... Gale Warning from 8am to 9pm EST Thursday for ANZ151-153-154. Storm Warning from 8am to 9pm EST Thursday for ANZ150-152. |
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