Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S Around 5 Kt After Midnight, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Towards Daybreak. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Snow After Midnight. Rain Towards Daybreak. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less Towards Daybreak. |
| Mon...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft After Midnight. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 306pm EST Sunday Dec 28 2025 Synopsis High pressure slides offshore tonight allowing a warm front to push across the area. A large low pressure system across the Great Lakes drift east Monday bringing mixed precipitation and hazardous travel conditions. This is followed by a strong cold front Monday night. High pressure briefly returns on Wednesday, with periods of reinforcing cold air through the end of the week. Near Term - Through Tonight 3 PMOpted to upgrade central New Hampshire to winter storm warnings as confidence is increasing in portions of this area seeing the higher end ice accumulations greater than 0.5", but less then 0.75". This combined with mixed precipitation and expected gusty winds within the warning area will create an elevated power outage threat. Previous Discussion... Impacts and Key Messages: * A messy winter storm with a period of freezing rain is going to bring hazardous travel to the area Sunday night. Not too much has changed in regards to thinking with this system. Models have come into pretty good agreement on a start time of around 10pm for precipitation working into southwestern New Hampshire. BUFKIT profiles suggest the warm nose is going to be well established at this point, starting things off as freezing rain. Precipitation expands northeastward, overspreading the area by daybreak Monday. Temperature profiles still look colder in interior Maine, so I would expect more of a mix as it pushes into that area. After a very cold night last, and temperatures staying well below freezing through much of tonight, untreated roads and walkways are going to be primed for ice accumulation. Anyone out and about in the overnight hours should use extreme caution as it looks like it is going to be slippery. Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night Impacts and Key Messages: * A messy winter storm with a period of freezing rain is going to bring hazardous travel to the area through at least the Monday morning commute. * Gusty winds Monday night may pose a limited power outage threat depending on how much ice accumulation locations see. The Monday morning commute is going to be a tough one for many. Models are being far too generous with surface warm air and I have continued to blend in colder guidance. It has been noted that this cold air dam setup is on the weaker side, but my gut tells me it will hold through the commute. The immediate coast has the best chance of starting to see a transition to rain early, but interior locations likely hold on to freezing rain through a good chunk of the morning. The biggest note in trends with the hi-res models is the fact that they have been more progressive with this system, with precipitation tapering off by Monday evening. Combined with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in the 0.5-0.75 range, this is going to help keep ice accumulations comfortably below warning criteria. However, because I am not discounting the cold air dam and the latest runs of the CAMs don't have the dry slots they were showing during the day Monday in yesterday's runs, ice accumulations 0.25" up to 0.5" are not out of the question, and therefore the Winter Weather Advisories continue unchanged. I do believe higher end amounts stay more isolated to the terrain. A potent upper low passes to our north Monday night, with an 80kt low level jet rounding it's base. The core of this jet stays off to our southeast, but ensemble means suggest 40-50kt winds on the fringes of the jet move over our area. Looking at BUFKIT profiles, lapse rates aren't super steep, but momentum transfer suggests widespread wind gusts 25-35 mph able to reach the surface. While these winds aren't the most impressive, areas that do end up seeing significant ice accumulations will have a limited power outage risk. Low temperatures Monday night fall into teens across much of the area, so windchills will feel more like the single digits by Tuesday morning. Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday - Cold with periodic moisture starved shortwave passages & upslope mountain snow Strong cold air advection behind the exiting system will have favorable momentum transfer tapping into a low level jet ~50+kt, resulting in blustery westerly surface winds around 20-35 mph Tuesday. This will drop wind chills down in the single digits from the foothills south, and negative values further northward. Fortunately winds gradually weaken Tuesday night as temperatures continue to plummet. Cyclonic NW flow pattern will dominate the remainder of the week as the area is under a deep upper low over eastern Canada. This will support reinforcing shots of cold air. Each shortwave & reinforcing cold front push will bring some snow chances, particularly in the mountains. Model ensembles are coming together on a shortwave rotating around the trough late Wed-Thu which could bring light snowfall to all areas. However, the source region being dry will limit any accumulations. There is high confidence that this will be a cold stretch with high heating degree days. The trough is projected to become less amplified by the weekend, with at least some moderation in temperature. Light snow is still possible Saturday Night-Sunday with the continued shortwave crossings through the main trough. Marine Short Term Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected through tonight, but southerly winds will ramp up, with gusts above 25kts, quickly as rain overspreads the waters associated with a frontal passage. Monday night behind the front, winds shift westerly with gusts ramping up to Gale force. During this time seas are also expected to build to 5-8 ft. Long Term The front is forecast to push across the waters Monday evening with strong NW winds developing bringing a period of Gale Force winds across most waters Monday night. Seas are forecast to build up to 6- 10 ft through Tuesday, with improving conditions late Tuesday. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Monday for NHZ001-002-010>015. Winter Storm Warning from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Monday for NHZ003>009. Marine Gale Warning from 7pm Monday to 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ150- 152-154. Gale Warning from 10pm Monday to 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ151-153. |
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