Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
258pm EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
High pressure will retreat offshore tonight. Weak low pressure will approach from the west tonight and bring a cold rain to most of the forecast area Monday into Monday night. Across northern and mountain sections, the precipitation will likely start as a wintry mix. High pressure follows for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter, the next best chance of precipitation will be Thursday or Friday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
At 18z a 1029 millibar high was centered over western Quebec. along the Ontario- Quebec border. GOES visible imagery showed mostly sunny skies across the area at the moment. Even with the sunshine...temperatures were struggling to climb through the 40s in many areas. A mainly clear and cold start to the night tonight with light winds and a dry air mass in place. Low temperatures should bottom out by midnight in most locations before clouds arrive ahead of a weak disturbance. Light warm air advection precipitation may arrive over southern and western New Hampshire by dawn. The column should be warm enough to support rain from the Lakes region southward. Meanwhile...the remainder of northern New Hampshire should initially be cold enough for a mix of snow...sleet...and rain.
Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night
On Monday....light precipitation will breakout across the remainder of the forecast area during the morning hours. Mountain and foothill sections will see a light mix of sleet and snow transition to rain by afternoon...with the exception of our far northern Maine mountains where the wintry mix will linger into the afternoon before the changeover to all rain occurs. all in all...snow and sleet accumulations should be on the order of an inch or less there. Across terrain above 2500 ft...we may see a light coating of ice in a rain and freezing rain mix. Closer to the coast...precipitation amounts will be light and spotty on the order of a tenth of an inch or less of rain. Highs will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in the mountains...with mid 40s to around 50 for the remainder of the forecast area. Precipitation will quickly end tomorrow night as the weak system exits the area. Lows will range from near 32 in the mountains to upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
Relatively quiet conditions start out the long range portion of the forecast. 12Z guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a cold front will be continuing to exit well off the coast Tuesday morning. A west to northwesterly gradient will allow for significant cold air advection during the day. With H8 temperatures below zero across all portions of the forecast area as well as plenty of cloud cover, temperatures will struggle to climb through the 40s over central and northern areas with lower 50s for afternoon highs in the south.
A fast moving and cyclonic flow aloft will continue on Wednesday as it remains relatively cool and mainly cloudy across the region. Warm air advection may trigger a sprinkle or two during the afternoon and evening hours.
An upper level low will cross the country this week before triggering cyclogenesis across the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night. Some tropical moisture may be injected into this system as it moves east, out over the open Atlantic on Friday. The exact track will determine if any precipitation can make it as far north as northern New England later this week. For now, the Canadian model is the most bullish with precipitation as it tracks the surface low just south of Long Island, New York while the GFS depicts a more dampened scenario with a track further to the south. In any case, temperature profiles suggest that some of this precipitation may fall in the form of snow over portions of Maine and New Hampshire away from the coast.
Canadian high pressure will then follow for the weekend as some of the coldest air of the season enters the region.
Short Term /Through Monday Night/...Large swell continues across the outer waters and I've extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through early evening. Thereafter...I expect conditions to remain below SCA. Vsby restrictions in fog...rain and drizzle are likely Monday into Monday night.
Long Term...Wind gusts may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for a period Tuesday morning. A west to northwest gradient, along with strong cold air advection may mix down wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range.
Winds will increase out of the northeast Thursday night and Friday as low pressure exits the Mid Atlantic coast.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.