Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw This Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
916am EDT Sunday September 23 2018
Synopsis: A cold front will drop south through the region today and will be followed by high pressure building south from Canada tonight. High pressure will crest over the area Monday morning before shifting east through Monday night. A warm front will approach from the southwest on Tuesday and will lift into northern Maine Tuesday night. Low pressure will move northeast through central Quebec on Wednesday and will drive a trailing cold front through the region Wednesday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
9am update.. The frost advisory and freeze warning have expired. Currently clear skies over all but the CT river valley where fog continues to hold on. Just minor update to temperatures and to keep the valley fog another hour or so. Increasing clouds now visible through Quebec associated with a front moving out of Canada.
700am Update... Quick update to mainly adjust current temps/tds. Last of high clouds on the way out of southeastern New Hampshire and clouds associated with a weak cold front approaching the Canadian border. Should see several hours of mostly sunny skies in the north before clouds settle south. Extensive valley fog should quickly lift in northern zones and the Connecticut Valley. No major changes planned to current forecast
Prev disc... Persistent band of cirrus continues to gradually sink south early this morning and has pretty much cleared northern zones where temperatures are approaching freezing. Thicker cloud over central and southern zones helping to keep temps up and may prevent frost formation...especially in the lower Connecticut Valley. Expect this cloud cover to gradually push south of the region through mid morning.
Looking for mostly sunny skies across most of the region by late morning before a cold front dropping south from Canada brings mid level clouds into northern zones later this afternoon. Not looking for much more than variable clouds with this moisture starved boundary which should push south of the area by this evening. High temperatures today will from the mid 50s to mid 60s north and upper 60s to near 70 in the south
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Monday
High pressure will build south from Canada overnight. Looking for scattered to broken clouds behind the front lingering mainly in northern and central zones. Will once again see some chilly overnight lows with upper 20s to mid 30s north and upper 30s to mid 40s in the south.
High pressure will crest over the region early Monday before shifting east in the afternoon. Looking for a mix of sun and clouds and cooler temps with highs ranging through the 50s
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
Models are in general agreement on the overall flow pattern through the period, but differ on locations and movement of the smaller scale features. With rather fast flow developing across the Northeast, timing of specific weather features is difficult.
High pressure centered over northeastern Maine Monday evening will drift slowly south and east through Wednesday. As it does, a developing southerly flow will lead to warming temperatures and increasing moisture across the region. The initial push of warm advection aloft will likely lead to a period of steady rain Tuesday afternoon and evening. The rain should taper to showers by Wednesday morning. A cold front will then push through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening with another round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
A ridge of high pressure will build across the region for Thursday as the cold front continues to slip southward. An area of low pressure will develop along the front and move northeast during the day Friday. Models differ on location and movement of this frontal boundary, intensity of the developing low, and how far north the precipitation shield comes. Current model forecasts would limit any significant precipitation from this feature to mainly south of the region, although the GFS brings some light precipitation to coastal areas. Also on Friday, an area of low pressure moving through southern Canada will drag a cold front toward the region during the day. This front will cross the region late Friday and sweep any remaining precipitation out to sea. Drier air will follow for Saturday. Models differ for Sunday with ECMWF mainly dry, but the GFS brings another frontal boundary through the region.
Short Term: Northeast flow will pick up behind the cold front tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. Looking for Small Craft Advisory winds developing around midnight and persisting into early afternoon Monday.
Long Term: Small Craft Advisories possible Tuesday through Thursday as an increasing southwest flow develops across the waters through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the waters Wednesday evening
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 2pm EDT Monday for ANZ150>152-154