Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N Late. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft. Scattered Showers Early With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Light And Variable Winds, Becoming Se Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Rain. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1131am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Synopsis A cold front exits this afternoon, with dry conditions returning. High pressure builds back into the area for the second half of the weekend. The next frontal system crosses Sunday night into Monday with widespread light rainfall possible along with cooler temperatures. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening 11:30am Tweaked POPs for the next couple hours as the last of the shower activity exits central Maine. The front is just about through the area, with clearing skies following shortly behind it. The west to northwesterly breeze is also following with the increased sunshine. Overall the forecast remains on track as clouds give way to sunshine for the afternoon hours. 610am Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Scattered showers and patchy fog will persist for another couple of hours before conditions rapidly improve by mid to late morning. Previously... Latest WPC surface front analysis shows a progressive cold front crossing the region with radar composite imagery showing a ribbon of light rain in association with this front moving from west to east. Latest CAM guidance indicates this strip of rain will continue to quickly cross the area before exiting the Penobscot River valley by late morning. It will otherwise remain a fairly mild morning for October standards with temperatures mainly into the 50s. Patchy fog can also be expected through around 8 AM, some of which could be locally dense. Mainly cloudy skies early this morning will quickly become partly to mostly sunny from west to east as drier air arrives behind the front. Increased mixing will result in gusty northwesterly winds with some gusts up to around 25 mph likely. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the north to the upper 60s to lower and perhaps even middle 70s across southwestern ME and south-central NH. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Sunday High pressure will build over New England tonight, allowing for mainly clear skies and weakening winds. Depending on quickly decoupling occurs, some valley locations could become quite cool with lows into the lower to middle 30s. Elsewhere, lows will generally be into the lower to middle 40s (warmest along the coast and urban corridors). Valley fog is likely, some of which could become dense. High pressure will remain over the area on Sunday, resulting in another dry day with partly sunny skies. Temperatures aloft do cool some and this combined with some added cloud cover will limit highs to primarily the 60s. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday Overview: Showers arrive overnight on Sunday into Monday morning as a cold front passes overhead. Much cooler conditions arrive behind this front for the middle of next week, with temperatures running a few degrees below normal. Details: Stacked low pressure near James Bay swings an elongated cold front through the region Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a ribbon of rain passing through New England during this timeframe. Deterministic guidance is still varied with its timing, and ensemble guidance is showing this as a fairly wide plume of precip. Looking at isentropic analysis, the ribbon of deeper moisture is actually not too wide as it passes overhead. Thus there may only be a period of wetting rain crossing the CWA (County Warning Area) with lighter showers or drizzle on either side. Tried to accentuate the likeliest window of showers and perhaps a period of steadier rain, late Sunday night early Monday morning, but uncertainty with timing and coverage should keep this window a bit wider. Once the front has passed off the coast, low level moisture lingers, especially in the upslope regions. There is a chance higher summits of the Whites see some flakes falling towards the end of the event. Temperatures aloft will continue to cool into Monday evening, and summit conditions fall below freezing. However, deeper moisture may be out of the area by that time. With enough low level moisture lingering, would expect riming to take place Monday night in cloud, but flakes could be hard to come by. Monday night really kicks off the cooler trend with combined CAA and some radiational cooling if cloud cover cooperates. Widespread lows fall into the lower 40s with upper 30s to the north. For Tuesday, highs only reach into the lower 60s and upper 50s, with higher elevations above 2500 ft falling below freezing or around this mark. Upslope flurries will be possible during the afternoon given the moisture and low level lapse rates. Winds will also be increasing for the higher terrain, with wind chills falling to the teens and single digits. Into midweek, the bulk of the CWA trends dry, but will see continued chances of showers in the mountains. Guidance does bring some precipitation into central ME and the coast, but this may be more a function of cooler air moving over the 'steamy' Gulf of Maine waters generating low cloud decks than actual precip. Thus not much confidence is this coming to fruition as measurable precip. Marine Short Term Northwesterly winds will largely remain below 25 kts with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday. Scattered showers will remain possible through this morning in association with a passing cold front. Long Term Seas of 4-6 ft late Sunday night through at least early next week across the outer waters will likely require an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with persistent onshore flow. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...None. NH...None. Marine None. |
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