Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1025am EST Wednesday Nov 13 2019
Low pressure shifts northeast into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Gusty winds will allow very cold air to enter the region tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will crest over New England Wednesday night, with dry conditions and very cold air over the region. Conditions remain dry until the end of the work week as a frontal system crosses. While Friday looks warmer, it is short-lived with an outbreak of Arctic-sourced air behind a cold front late in the day. Below normal temperatures stick around through the weekend with a warm trend and return of active weather next week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
1020amMatched our forecast temperatures and dew points with observations. The going forecast looks to be on track so no other changes were made there at this time. Also took down the Gale Warning over the outer waters and replaced it with a Small Craft Advisory, matching the bays.
Previously...Minor adjustments to winds and temperatures this morning. Otherwise, little change with this package update.
Arctic air will continue to pour into the region today on gusty west to northwest winds as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes region. H8 temperatures in the -14C to -16C range will be sufficient enough to prevent temperatures from rising to above 32 degrees in most areas today. These would be mini-max records for some areas.
Plenty of sunshine expected today due to downsloping in the west to northwest flow. In the mountains, upslope clouds and scattered snow showers or flurries possible this morning.
Short Term - Thursday
Record cold temperatures possible today and tonight.
The surface ridge crests over New England tonight. This will allow for winds to go calm under clear skies. With a fresh snow cover in some areas and low dew point values, temperatures will plummet this evening. Temperature readings will quickly approach record lows tonight. Have used a blend of guidance for overnight lows which brings northern areas to below zero and only single digits along much of the coastline.
Mid and high level clouds increase late tonight which should prevent lows from falling even lower.
Scattered snow showers are possiblE on Thursday mainly in the mountains as a broad upper level trough combines with low level warm air advection. Southwesterly winds may bring some clouds and perhaps a flurry or a shower to the Midcoast region of Maine as limited moisture arrives off the Gulf of Maine.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
The upper level pattern continues to be quite active during the long term with the polar vortex wobbling over northern Canada leading to an Arctic outbreak of cold this weekend. Meanwhile weak mid- and low- level ridging dominates over the eastern CONUS, which tends to keep the New England region dry. Next week, long range models suggest the polar vortex retrogrades NW closer to the North Pole which would allow for moderating temperatures closer to average.
Thursday night, high pressure continues to erode and shift east with southwesterly flow returning. Warm advection counters diurnal cooling with near steady to warming temperatures overnight, then leads to temperatures near normal Friday with 30s north, 40s to near 50 south. During the second half of Friday, a shortwave and surface cold front crosses with strong cold advection in its wake. While pre-frontal rain/snow/mixed showers are possible over the Gulf of Maine and portions of the Mid Coast early on Friday, the front itself appears by and large moisture starved as crosses later in the day.
After frontal passage, though, strong northwest winds lead to upslope snow showers and gusty winds as high pressure quickly and robustly builds in at the surface. Strong flow and froude exceeding 1 suggests snow showers and perhaps squalls spilling from the upslopes into central/MidCoast Maine Friday night before drying entirely by daybreak Saturday. So, have included slight chance and generally boosted Probability of Precipitation from the blend during this period. Strong flow prevents radiational cooling, but strong cold advection leads to single- digit lows across the mountains and areas north with teens to near 20 south.
Big bubble no trouble/high pressure keeps the weekend quiet. A cold start leads to temps struggling to the freezing mark at best along the coast Saturday with areawide temperatures running around 15 deg below normal. High pressure moves overhead Saturday night with near 0F temps north and teens across the coastal plain. Went on the low side of guidance during this time. By the middle of the weekend, long range models agree on a see-saw of troughing across the CONUS with a strong jet descending across the front range of the Rockies driving a low up the Atlantic coast by early next week.
The progressive nature of the western trough ought to keep the coastal low beyond the benchmark, with any inland impacts requiring an unlikely retrograding track to come to fruition. Current model suite suggests the low passes to the SE Monday. One impact of the coastal low is advecting warmer air aloft from the south, allowing 850mb temps to come above freezing for the first time in several days. Eventually the amplified western trough tracks across the CONUS, returning active weather to New England by the middle of next week.
Gales remain in effect for the outer waters as strong cold air advection continues over the relatively warm waters in the Gulf of Maine this morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the bays. Winds drop off rapidly tonight.
Long Term...SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) at times through the long term period over the waters. A system crossing Friday and Friday night brings possible Gales under strong NW flow. Seas and winds ebb for the most part this weekend under high pressure. An offshore low builds waves and perhaps winds again early next week. Not a lot of confidence in this system at this distance, but worth keeping an eye on with the Gulf of Maine positioned between strong high pressure to the north and strengthening low pressure to the south.
Records for Portland November 13, Coldest High (mini-max record): 33F set in 1990 November 14, Record Low: 12F set in 1986
Record for Concord November 13, Coldest High (mini-max record): 33F set in 1962 November 14, Record Low: 7F set in 1986
Record for Augusta November 13, Coldest High (mini-max record): 32F set in 1990 November 14, Record Low: 13F set in 1986
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ150>154.