Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers This Morning, Then Showers Likely This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Sun...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain Or Snow Showers After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 506am EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Synopsis A warm front will continue to lift through the area this morning, however warmer weather will be short lived. After temperatures climb into the 40s and even 50s for some locations a strong cold front will cross the region this evening. Temperatures will tumble back down into the teens and 20s with plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Also expect some gusty winds overnight, at times reaching 35 mph. After a quieter day Saturday, low pressure may affect the region on Sunday. This may bring a mix, snow, and rain before high pressure moves in early next week. Near Term - Today Update...The bulk of the warm air advection rain is moving E of the area at this hour. Scattered showers remain behind the initial wave of forcing...so I will continue the winter weather advisory for the time being. Surface warm front continues to slowly lift N...with temps climbing well into the 30s and 40s at RKD...PSM...ASH...MHT...AFN...and up the CT River Valley to LEB. This will be the trend thru the morning. However a narrow area of clear skies behind the initial warm air advection wing has allowed temps to briefly dip back down towards freezing just inland from the coast. This is allowing some of the puddles leftover from early morning rain to refreeze. I have issued a SPS for black ice to cover this area where refreezing is most likely. Previous discussion...This morning we continue to see some light warm air advection precipitation lift across the forecast area. By 7 am I expect much of this to be E of the area...as forcing is best in that area and we see some drying overhead. Until then temps continue to be near freezing...so some of this will fall as freezing rain. The winter weather advisories continue thru morning...as well as an SPS to the S of that where temps are more marginal but some slick spots are still possible. See no reason why these products cannot expire on time or be cancelled with the next update. In fact the surface warm front is beginning to edge into the area now with AFN jumping to 39 degrees at the hour of this writing. That surface warm front will continue to lift N ahead of approaching cold front. I expect that temps should surge just ahead of the front...and many locations will make a run well into the 40s and even low 50s. However the favored cold air damming zone from 1P1 thru IZG and into the ME foothills will likely not benefit from any surge...but rather begin falling quickly after a brief mix out along the front. Along the front I have pretty low confidence in coverage of precip...at least until it reaches the far Ern zones and over the water. Otherwise I have low chance or slight chance Probability of Precipitation for some stray showers. Upslope snow showers will be the most likely form of precip...but those will wait until post-frontal passage. Could see a couple inches of snow at the higher elevations of Northern NH and Wrn ME in this activity. Will also see strong Cold Air Advection and increasing mixing depths behind the front. This will tap Wly winds around 40 kt at the top of the mixed layer. Taking about 80 percent of that for gusts gives pretty widespread 30 to 35 kt gusts...so gusty but solidly sub- advisory. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday For a few hours in the evening I expect we will still see some wind gusts around 35 to as high as 40 mph at times. These gusts will gradually diminish thru the night as the Cold Air Advection and pressure gradient weakens. Given the mixed boundary layer overnight I went close to straight mixed down temps and raw 2 m guidance for low temps. This brings the area down into the 20s with teens in the far Northern zones. Will also see lingering upslope snow showers in the mtns. Could see an additional couple of inches in the highest terrain before upslope precipitation shuts off. High pressure briefly moves in Sat and we will see clearing but cool conditions...with afternoon readings in the 30s. Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday The ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through early next week. With the mean upper trough position to our west...cold air will be limited and temperatures should average near normal or slightly above normal for the period. We begin the period with shortwave ridging Saturday night ahead of a vigorous shortwave impulse over the Mississippi Valley. A clear start to the night should allow temperatures to drop well below freezing...especially away from the immediate coast. By Sunday morning...clouds will have overspread much of the forecast area with light precipitation arriving over southern and coastal sections by early afternoon as the impulse goes negative tilt and the coastal low tracks into southeast New England. The surface low tracks more east then north across the Gulf of Maine Sunday afternoon before exiting into the Canadian maritimes Sunday night. With this track...much of the available model suite keeps southern and coastal sections on the western periphery of the precipitation shield with areas near the international border seeing little if any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Given thermal profiles best chance for frozen is reserved for mountains and foothills with predominantly rain along the coast. In between...we're more likely to see a light wintry mix. Behind this system for Sunday night we're likely to see some upslope snow showers across the higher terrain before a ridge of high pressure arrives for Monday. Low pressure passing to our west Monday night and Tuesday will spread some warm air advection clouds into the area. A second and more significant low will track from the Mississippi valley through the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday before exiting into the maritimes by Thanksgiving Day. Marine Short Term Gale warnings continue for strong Wly wind gusts behind cold front late this afternoon into early evening. Gale force gusts diminish in the bays overnight and on the outer waters by Sat morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue into Sat afternoon before diminishing under high pressure. Long Term... Sunpm - Mon...SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) likely...with Gales psb outside the bays. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8am EST this morning for MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8am EST this morning for NHZ001>005. MARINE... Gale Warning from 5pm this afternoon to 5am EST Saturday for ANZ150>154. |
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