Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se This Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Or Snow Late.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
342am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a storm system that will track over the Great Lakes and southern Canada tonight into Friday. This system will push a warm front across New England today, bringing with it mainly rain south of the foothills with snow and a wintry mix further to the north. Precipitation ends by early Friday morning leaving behind breezy and unseasonably warm conditions. High pressure builds in this weekend with quiet weather and continued warmth.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning shows a low to mid-level stratus deck across the far north and mountains with just some high level cirrus further to the south. Webcams indicate that other than some flurries across the far north and mountains these clouds are not resulting in any impactful precipitation. Temperatures are primarily into the middle 20s to lower 30s.
Surface high pressure will be pushed off to our northeast today with falling geopotential heigheights ahead of stacked low pressure to our west. This area of low pressure will cross over the Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening and in doing so will send a surface warm front northward across New England as a secondary low begins to form along the coast. Overrunning precipitation will begin to break out along the CT River Valley by or shortly after noon today before quickly spreading east into western ME between 3-6 pm. Surface dew points will start off below freezing in most locations as this precipitation begins and therefore expecting a period of wet bulbing to occur with temperatures falling by a few degrees. This will likely allow for a few snow flakes to initially mix in with the rain in interior NH and the interior coastal plain of ME for an hour or two before warmer air moves in resulting in a transition to plain rain south of the foothills by this evening.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Friday
Across the foothills, a weak CAD may allow for a slightly more prolonged period of a rain/snow mix this evening and there could be a few sleet pellets and isolated pockets of freezing rain before midnight. The greatest winter weather and associated impacts will be across the mountains and near the Canadian Border as 850-925 temperatures remain near or a bit below freezing through midnight, allowing for several inches of snow accumulation. Eventually the warm nose aloft will then move in transitioning snow to a wintry mix before possibly ending as a brief period of plain rain. No changes were made to the existing WSW and the current forecast calls for generally 2-4" of snow across the north and mountains with a slushy inch or two possible in the foothills and nothing along the coast and southern areas. Ice accretion will generally be less than a tenth of an inch across the north, although higher elevations of 2500 ft and above could receive upwards of a quarter inch. Up to a half inch of sleet is also possible up north and across the higher terrain. As a result, slippery travel can be expected during the evening commute with some lasting impacts possible on the Friday morning commute.
Temperatures will rise overnight as southwesterly flow begins to increase and rain across the south and wintry mix in the north will quickly end overnight.
Low pressure departs to the north and east on Friday as high pressure begins to build to our southwest. Lingering cyclonic flow will result in the typical upslope snow and rain showers across the north and mountains while areas further to the south experience a partly sunny and very mild day. Downsloping winds combined with 850 mb temperatures of around +6C will allow for high temperatures to reach the lower to even middle 50s across the south. Increased mixing during the day will result in southwest wind gusts up to 30-40 mph at times during the afternoon though, so it likely won't feel quite as warm as the thermometer will read.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
Since the polar vortex moved into the mid latitudes last weekend, any build up of cold air in the arctic has been slow, and flow has been dominate by the sub-tropical ridging over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This trend seems to continue this weekend into next week, with the CWA (County Warning Area) more on the warmer ridge side of the southern stream. Also, with the more dynamic SW flow aloft well to our W, It looks like any systems will be weak and low impact.
However, the long range starts off on the colder side as CAA advection on gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. Saturday is the coldest day in the forecast, but even then highs will make to around normal, in the mid 20s to mid 30s N to S. Winds should die off gradually Saturday night, with some late rad cooling possible bring minds down to 5-10 above in the mtns, and 15-20 in the S. Late Sunday into early Monday, watching coastal low shift Operational models keep most of the precipitation to our S, and suggest a chance of light snow /or rain/ around Sunday night in the far southern zones, and ensemble means tend to follow this idea that system stays to our S, with only a graze of the S, but there are enough members /about 20%/, that would produce more significant snow across the southern CWA to not be completely confident about this yet. Beyond this, into the middle of next week, it looks warmer with the possible of a fast moving season around Wednesday.
Strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low end gales are possible tonight through Friday across the eastern outer waters with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions elsewhere. SW winds up to 30-35 kts are likely Friday afternoon and evening with seas of 4-7 ft outside of the bays. Widespread rain is also expected late today through tonight.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) likely Fri night into Sat in NW flow behind the front, with a small chance for gales over the open waters.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 3am EST Friday for MEZ007>009. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 10pm EST this evening for NHZ001>005.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for ANZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Friday for ANZ151>154.