Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Or Snow, Mainly This Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Snow In The Evening, Then Snow Likely After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1015am EST Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis: A coastal low will parallel the coast and cross the Gulf of Maine later today before exiting into the maritimes. An upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region Sunday before a fast moving area of low pressure develops over the region Sunday night. An Arctic front will cross the region late Monday, followed by high pressure building into the region through midweek.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
10 am Update: Continue to watch wraparound band of pcpn developing over the area as expected. Nice comma head continues development north of the low and mid level low which is centered over Cape Cod and moving northeast. Expect a band of very heavy Quantitative Precipitation Forecast to develop but just stay a few miles off the ME coast late this morning and early afternoon with the comma head, if this ends up slightly further w then coastal areas would get higher amts but for now will plan on axis of hviest qpf staying just offshore. Meanwhile widespread snow to continue over the rest of the area as the wraparound with light to moderate snowfall occurs. PTYPE all snow now except over coastal areas along the midcoast as caa continues to be drawn south into the developing low off the coast. Lowered temps for the next few hours and also changed all ptype to snow except along the immediate midcoast areas.
830 am Update: Second round of snow developing as low level low currently centered near Block Island, RI continues to work vertically and enhancing low low wraparound snowfall across much of the area. IR Sat imagery showing a developing comma head which should help to further enhance snowfall for the next few hours into early afternoon. A couple inches additional snowfall possible in some areas. Any mixed pcpn should change back to snow in the next few hours as cold air filters into southeast NH and parts of coastal ME.
600 AM...For this ESTF update I've allowed the winter weather advisory for seacoast NH to expire an hour early. They've warmed above freezing and little in the way of additional frozen/freezing precipitation is expected there. The dry slot on GOES imagery is translating eastward and will exit the forecast area shortly. There should be one more round of steadier precipitation across the area this morning...especially across northern and western sections associated with the shortwave.
Prev disc... At 06z...a 999 millibar coastal low was vicinity of the DELMARVA with 3 hour pressure falls in advance of this feature approaching 10 millibars south of Cape Cod. GOES water vapor loop showed the associated shortwave over western PA with a dry slot pushing northward through southern and central New England. Widespread banded precipitation was noted on NWS Doppler Radar mosaic across the region at moment. A complicated forecast as some warmer air briefly works in aloft this morning in advance of the strengthening surface low. This will cause snow to mix with sleet and rain/light freezing rain at times as precipitation lightens in intensity. The coastal front is approaching the Maine mid coast and may briefly come onshore there changing precipitation to rain. All told...this should result in some wide variation in snow amounts today over relatively short distances. The steadier precipitation should end by early afternoon as the shortwave exits into New Brunswick. Our issues with mixed precipitation should end by midday as the surface low tracks into the Gulf of Maine. The easterly flow will become northerly even at the coast at that time drawing colder air southward across the entire forecast area. No changes to winter headlines at this time
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
Lingering clouds and a few snow showers tonight mainly across northern New Hampshire and much of our northern and eastern Maine counties in proximity to a weak surface trough and with moist upslope flow across the higher terrain. On Saturday...upslope flow with some clouds and snow showers for the higher terrain. Otherwise a partly sunny start to the weekend with highs in the 30s across the mountains with lower and mid 40s elsewhere
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
After a busy beginning of the weekend, the long term forecast is free of significant systems. We will see snow, but outside of the mountains the only time frame will be Sunday night into Monday morning, and at this time, amounts look light. So more nuisance type precipitation. Additionally clouds and snow showers over the mountains will pick up additional accumulations throughout the week. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively warm, with highs above normal several days.
A cold front will near the region from the northwest late Saturday night, bringing additional light snow showers and cloudiness to portions of northwestern Maine and New Hampshire. The front weakens as high pressure builds in Sunday. Sunday will be precipitation free in downsloping areas, with some sunny skies before clouds return from the south. As the high quickly moves offshore during the day Sunday, weak warm air advection will begin in association with a weak system moving through the Ohio Valley.
Light showers will accompany this system, mainly for southern sections of the region. The p-type will be snow with plenty of cold air in place, with rain offshore. Again as mentioned earlier amounts look less than 3" at this time. Colder air will stay locked in the mountains, with overnight lows ranging from the teens far north to 20s along the coast, and mid to upper 20s over southern NH for Monday morning. The cold push behind this system will make Monday night through Wednesday's temperatures well below normal.
For the remainder of the forecast, the long term models are having trouble with the robustness of the upper level trough and associated waves affecting the northeastern states. Cyclonic flow does look to stay overhead, bringing periods of cloudiness and showers, mainly for the peaks. Around midweek the trough will begin to dig towards the northeastern CONUS, bringing some showers for Thanksgiving Day, mainly across the north.
Short Term /through Saturday/...Gales today with seas/winds diminishing to Small Craft Advisories tonight into late Saturday.
Long Term: We may briefly see a few gusts to 25 kts periodically Monday, mainly in Penobscot Bay and the far eastern outer waters. After that winds and seas increase across the board and solid Small Craft Advisories may be newed
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1pm EST this afternoon for MEZ018- 023. Winter Storm Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028. NH...Winter Storm Warning until 1pm EST this afternoon for NHZ005>013-015. Winter Storm Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for NHZ001>004.
Gale Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ150>154