Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely In The Evening.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1139pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022
Upslope showers continue this afternoon, clearing up late overnight with breezy winds continuing. Dry air will move in for tomorrow with relative humidity values dropping into the teens and 20s in most places. Temps turn cooler through mid week with a couple weak cold fronts moving overhead. Low pressure will pass through the region Thursday. A warming trend returns late in the week into the weekend with a cold front passing through the area Sunday evening. high pressure then moves in for the beginning of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
1135 PM Precipitation will continue to attempt to exit the mountains late this evening per latest radar imagery, however much of it will dissipate at it heads into southern areas. Nevertheless, have upped probability of precipitation across much of the area as mesoscale models have not had a good handle on this moisture embedded in a cold air advection pattern. The precipitation has switched from freezing rain to snow showers across the highest peaks as cold air pours into the region as of 03Z.
Otherwise, just minor tweaks to the temperatures, winds and cloud cover during the near term portion of the forecast package.
950 PM Minor update as freezing rain continues across the highest peaks in the northern mountains. Cold air advection overnight should change the ptype to snow showers.
Otherwise, have raised probability of precipitation per latest radar imagery and mesoscale models. Minor edits with winds and temperatures with this package.
Update... Have updated the forecast based on latest mesoscale models and radar imagery. Showers continue in the northern mountains with a few sprinkles making its way to the coastline. Some of the precipitation is falling as snow showers across the highest peaks where light accumulations of snow is possible overnight.
Made minor adjustments to the latest wind and temperature fields for the near term portion of the forecast.
Prev Disc... Upslope showers and breezy winds continue overnight as northwest flow continues to bring cooler air into the area. The breeze will keep surface temperatures from decoupling overnight keeping lows in the 40s with any frost risk remaining low. Skies will stay mostly cloudy north of the mountains and partly cloudy in the south. Dry air will surge in quickly clearing up the clouds around sunrise as dewpoints drop.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
Any remaining showers north of the mountains will clear up early tomorrow morning and winds will pick back up for another breezy and dry day. Relative humidity values are expected to drop into the teens over southern and central NH through southwestern Maine, with areas north of the mountains dropping into the upper 20s. Winds will be gusting up to 30 mph which will bring the area to near critical fire weather conditions, however the recent rainfall and green up will help improve the conditions. This will likely be the coolest day of the week with highs in the 60s south of the mountains and 50's in the north.
Clouds will start moving in again from the south overnight into Thursday as a warm front approaches the area bringing another chance of showers as it passes. Since the warm front will be moving into dry air, showers will likely be light with little accumulation. Winds will calm down overnight allowing temperatures to drop into the 40s again with areas in and north of the mountains dipping into the mid 30s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Low pressure will track near central New England Thursday, bringing the chance of rain across much of the area. There will be some elevated instability as it passes, thus introduced the slight chance of thunder during the early afternoon. Temperatures should be fairly mild, but warm air advection aloft could mix down with the rain with highs around 60 during the day. Where there is fresh southerly flow arriving in a small warm sector in advance of the passing low, think there could be some precipitation enhancement, perhaps near the ME capitol region and Midcoast. However, this will likely shift as ensembles still show different results for timing and location.
Clouds should begin to thin a little overnight, but remain in place with continued southwesterly moist flow. This will jumpstart a warm pattern into the weekend, with more highs climbing into the 70s Friday, and then 80s to potentially the lower 90s on Sat/Sun. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EFI highligheights an anomalously warm sector arriving to the region on Sat, and this will be something to track, especially if more moisture is in the region to boost heat indices.
A cold front should pass through the region sometime Sunday afternoon/evening, but there is some discrepancy in timing. This will determine how hot Sunday may follow up to be, in regards to clouds/flow.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue overnight with winds gusting to 20-30 kts before calming down tomorrow afternoon. Waves will gradually calm down through theNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
ling to 2-3 ft by Thursday morning.
Conditions below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the most part. There may be some winds near 25 kts ahead of passing low pressure Thursday afternoon, plus the potential for fog. Other than a wind shift, SW winds the continue with waves generally 2 to 3 ft.
Breezy winds and low relative humidity values will set in early Wednesday with gusts up to 30 mph and relative humidity dropping to 20-25 percent in southern New Hampshire. This will approach critical fire weather conditions. Status of green up and how wet the fuels are from recent rainfall will determine fuel moisture.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The combination of the high astronomical tides and remaining surge may bring tides just to or just below flood stage again tonight. With wave action remaining on the low side...around 2-4 ft near shore...am expecting impacts to be limited to the usual, sensitive inundation areas.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 9am EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154.