Penobscot Bay Marine Forecast
5 - 10
10 - 15
5 - 10
5 - 10
5 - 10
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
742pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023
Surface high pressure keeps northern New England mostly dry through Thursday along with a warming trend with temperatures climbing well above normal Wednesday through Friday. A cold front drops south through the area Friday bringing showers and the potential for thunderstorms. Cooler more seasonable temperatures will then return behind this front for the upcoming weekend.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
740 PM...Just some minor tweaks to T/Td/Wind based on current obs through the evening, but nothing that changes the forecast for tonight. Still may see some smoke settle into coastal areas from Casco Bay south once the sun has set.
Previously...Other than a few cirrus out there, skies are clear across the region with a ridge of high pressure overhead and satellite- derived precipitable water showing very dry air with values of around a half inch or less across the region. Winds have gotten a bit breezy behind the seabreeze, and we could see gusts to around 20 mph before diminishing this evening. Subsidence behind the seabreeze and decoupling this evening/tonight could allow smoke from wildfires in Nova Scotia to settle near the surface.
Skies stay clear tonight with light winds, but the uptick in surface dewpoints will keep us milder than last night and this morning. Most will have low temperatures in the 40s.
Short Term - Wednesday Night
The airmass will remain very dry and subsident thanks to the upper ridge sitting right on top of us, giving us another dry and sunny day for Wednesday. Temperatures aloft will further warm and we'll mix very well, so it will be quite a bit warmer than today. Using mixing to approximately the 800-750 mb layer supports highs mostly in the 80s away from the coast, but if we mix a little higher, it's possible that a couple of spots across the interior approach 90 degrees, mainly in NH.
With the low-level high pressure to our south and east, light SW flow will bring surface dewpoints back into the lower 50s during the evening and overnight hours. So even though we'll again radiate well with the light winds and clear skies, the dewpoints should be a good proxy for low temps mainly in the lower 50s, although some upper 40s are possible in the normally cooler places.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Deep layer warming NWly flow will make for a hot day Thursday except perhaps at the immediate coast. We expect many folks to reach 90 with a few record highs potentially threatened (see below). A weak impulse aloft riding southward around the deep layer ridge over Quebec may set off a few thunderstorms in the mountains early Thursday evening. As of right now it looks like the vast majority of that activity will remain in Canada.
The majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show upper level low pressure moving southward through Labrador on Friday and will will aid in pushing a backdoor cold front southward and into our region Friday afternoon. It looks as though at least 1000 J/KG SBCAPE will build in advance of the front as heigheights continue to fall. This should allow for shower and thunderstorm development just ahead of the front and perhaps behind it for a few hours as elevated instability lingers prior to the low level cool air mass to become deeper. Some beneficial rains are possible, with many guidance members going for 0.5"+ Friday afternoon and night. As far as temperatures go, we should readily heat up early in the day Friday. Depending on the speed of the front and development of showers and thunderstorms, highs should get well into the 80s if not 90s again (especially in the south).
Much cooler conditions are expected over the weekend as maritime high pressure moves overhead. Another trough may approach for Monday and Tuesday with potential unsettled weather.
Low-level ridge axis just south of the waters will continue to promote a south to southwest flow across the waters through Wednesday night with wind speeds remaining below SCA levels. Winds will back slightly to the south to southeast late Wednesday morning or afternoon as the seabreeze develops.
A cold front will drop south through the waters late Friday bringing chances for showers and winds shifting out of the northeast. These northeast winds will likely bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions along the outer waters Friday night and Saturday morning.
Record high temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday (June 1st and June 2nd). Here are the records:
Portland, ME Thurs: 90 (2013) Fri: 86 (1990) Augusta, ME Thurs: 92 (2013) Fri: 86 (1990) Concord, NH Thurs: 94 (2013) Fri: 95 (1934)
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories