Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thursday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 315pm CDT Sunday July 3 2022 Near Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight TE /Now Through Monday/...The axis of a broad upper ridge slowly evolves from being mostly oriented across the northern Gulf to across the southeast states, while a series of weak shortwaves slowly move through the upper ridge pattern. A surface ridge which extends from the western Atlantic to across the extreme northern Gulf will promote a light and primarily southwesterly surface flow over the area. This pattern will continue to have a weak steering flow resulting in slow moving convection, and abundant Gulf moisture remains in place with precipitable water values of mostly 2.0-2.3 inches. MLCAPE values increase to around 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon and again on Monday. DCAPE values this afternoon and also on Monday look to be around 500 J/kg at best, a consequence of the rather moist environment. Expect at least scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop with daytime heating and the sea breeze each day, with convective development aided by left over outflow boundaries. May see a strong storm develop each day due to precipitation loading, and nuisance type flooding due to slow moving storms is possible as well. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Monday will be mostly in the lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast with some patchy late night fog possible. Heat index values each day tend to range from 98 to 104. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29 Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night An upper level ridge will build over the central CONUS and into the Deep South through at least midweek. However, a few subtle shortwaves will round the base of this feature (over the northern Gulf of Mexico) through the early part of the week. Surface high pressure will also maintain its hold over the region through the short term period. In terms of moisture, guidance indicates that PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 2 inches or more will stick around into midweek, but slightly decrease from Wednesday into Thursday. This may cause PoPs to be slightly less on Wednesday compared to earlier in the week. Overall, expecting daily chances of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms, beginning over the Gulf waters during the late night/early morning hours then translating onshore through the day. With the loss of daytime heating, coverage will then likely wane a bit through the mid to late evening hours. Some stronger storms are possible, with instability values around 2000-2500 J/kg and bulk shear between 15-20 knots. However, DCAPE values look to be a bit higher on Wednesday (700-1200 J/kg) compared to Tuesday. Therefore, the wet microburst potential may be a bit higher on Wednesday. In addition to this, nuisance flooding is possible, especially from storms that train over the same locations. High temperatures will be similar to recent days, with upper 80s at the beaches and lower 90s inland. Lows will be very muggy and warm, remaining in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s near the coast each night. /26 .EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper ridge will begin to be flattened somewhat by a northern stream trough over the Northeast by late week. This will become more prominent by Friday, as a shortwave moves over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The upper trough will also amplify down into the Southeast. Surface high pressure will also continue over the region through late week, but be pushed southward by an incoming cold front slated to move over the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians on Saturday. Although moisture decreases slightly overnight Wednesday into Thursday, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will quickly return to be right around 2 inches by Thursday afternoon. Elevated PWATs (Precipitable Waters) (2+ inches) will then persist from late week through the weekend. Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday, and as in the short term, will begin during the late night/early morning mainly over the Gulf then shift to be over land during the day. With the previously mentioned upper shortwave, surface front, and increased PWATs (Precipitable Waters) expected from Friday through the weekend, Probability of Precipitation will likely increase to be scattered to numerous by the weekend. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s over inland areas on Thursday and Friday (upper 80s at the coast), with a few spots in the west perhaps reaching the mid 90s on Friday. Heat indices on Friday may need to be monitored, especially for areas west of the Alabama River, as values may approach Heat Advisory criteria. As rain chances increase through the weekend, highs will likely moderate as well. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s by this time. Meanwhile, lows will be similar to the short term - warm and muggy. Temperatures will merely drop into the lower to mid 70s over inland locations and into the upper 70s near the coast. /26 Marine Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the marine area each day this week. Locally higher winds and seas, frequent lightning, and waterspouts will be possible in and around any of the convection. Otherwise, winds remain light and mostly onshore through the early part of this week. /14 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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