Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 3 To 8 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Northwest 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
1011 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
A generally light east to southeast wind flow transitions to a more westerly wind Monday night and persists through midweek as a weak cold front stalls north of the coast. A light onshore wind develops late in the week as high pressure develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628pm CDT Sunday September 22 2019
Near Term - Now Through Monday
A large upper high pressure system over the southeast conus will shift slightly southwestward over the next 24 hours in response to an upper low pressure system moving eastward over the upper midwest and Great Lakes regions. As the center of the upper high moves from the central Alabama/Georgia state line to over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, this will reinforce the large-scale subsidence over the forecast area. A surface ridge of high pressure extending southwestward from a Bermuda high pressure system across the southeast states to the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift slightly southward and weaken as a surface trough passing well north of the region sends a cold front through Kentucky and Tennessee Monday afternoon. A dry weather pattern however will remain through the near term, with only a few cumulus clouds developing throughout the day Monday.
Low temperatures tonight will be near normal, ranging from 64 to 69 degrees inland areas, with lower 70s along the immediate coast. High temperatures Monday will be 5 to 7 degrees above normal, with low to mid 90s inland areas, and upper 80s at the beaches. /22
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
Upper level ridge axis centered over the central Gulf coast Monday night slips slowly southward into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. This allows a zone of high level westerlies to set up over the interior zones. At same time, a surface front is draped from AR to central parts of MS/AL on up across the coastal Carolinas. Embedded in the frontal circulation will be a narrow zone of better environmental moisture characterized by PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ~2.00". Considering frontal ascent approaching from the north, passage of mid-level impulses in the westerlies aloft and daytime instability, isolated to perhaps scattered storms will be advertised by Tuesday afternoon over the interior zones. The frontal circulation does not make much southward progress, stalling over the southeast into the day Wednesday. However, deep moisture eases southward to the coast and with the development of a weak coastal sea-breeze, there could be enough lift to help in the initiation of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
As far as highs, unseasonable warmth continues. Highs in the lower to mid 90s range some 8 to 10 degrees above climo. Little change in overnight lows, remaining warm about 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal. /10
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Upper ridge axis extends across the FL peninsula and southeast states to close out the week, before amplifying=>strengthening and expanding with its axis across TX to over the southeast for the weekend. The North American Ensemble has also shown a tendency to be stronger with the mid- level ridge building over the deep south for Saturday and Sunday than was shown a day ago with H50 heigheights of 594+ decameters shown to be more expansive over the Ark-La-Tex and the MS Delta. Overall, this remains some 2 to 3 standard deviations above the climatological means. The massive deep layer ridge favors hot temperatures and very meager rain chances during the medium range. Forecasters wouldn't be surprised if a few locations in our interior approach the 100 degree mark, especially by the weekend when the strength of the upper ridge is stronger. This of course would set new records to close out the month of September. /10
MARINE...A light south to southeast wind flow will gradually become east tonight as high pressure to the northeast shifts toward the southwest. A southwest to westerly flow is then expected Monday night through midweek as a cold front approaching the area from the north stalls just north of the coast. A light onshore wind flow will then resume late in the week as a ridge of high pressure becomes re- established across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. /22
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.