Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
10 - 15
10 - 15
10 - 15
10 - 15
|Today...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
514am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
(Now through Friday) Issued at 513am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Forecast remains on track early this morning as temperatures continue to hover in the 40s across much of the area with upper 30s noted across parts of south-central Alabama.
A dry forecast is on tap through Friday! Upper level ridging builds overhead as surface high pressure moves toward the East Coast throughout the day. Winds gradually turn southeasterly by this afternoon as the surface high slides into the western Atlantic. Moisture levels remain very low today with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) responding to the southerly flow late tonight and into Friday. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) gradually increase to 1.1-1.3 inches by late Friday afternoon.
A warming trend is anticipated throughout the period. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 70s area-wide with clear skies. Low temperatures will only fall into the 50s and 60s by early Friday morning as cloud cover increases throughout the overnight hours. Expect highs on Friday to soar into the upper 70s to low 80s area- wide.
Spring Break Note: The risk of rip currents increases to a MODERATE on Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches with surf increasing to 2-3 feet. 07/mb
.SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 513am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
A deep low pressure system centered over the Upper Midwest early Friday evening is forecast to lift across the Great Lakes on Friday night. A potent 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak will spread across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions through Friday night in advance of this system. An organizing quasi-linear complex of intense convection is subsequently expected to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into central and northern portions of MS and far northwest AL by Friday evening within the favored region of forced ascent. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our forecast area late Friday night, especially across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL along the southern and southwestern periphery of ascent. The strongest low level wind fields will remain oriented well to the northwest and north of our forecast area with this system, but short range model solutions do show a belt of 40 kt west- southwesterly 850 mb winds spreading into our interior southeast MS and southwestern AL counties late Friday night along with modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG. A few strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing strong and gusty winds of 40-60 mph cannot be ruled out over our northwestern counties late Friday night and those far northwestern zones remained clipped by a Marginal severe risk on the latest Day 2 outlook. 850 mb winds still look to veer westerly and decrease through the overnight hours, so the overall severe threat will be very low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop into the remainder of the forecast area through Saturday morning (best coverage probably over south central AL into the western FL panhandle) as a cold front moves into the area. A gradual decrease in coverage expected as convection weakens near the coast into Saturday afternoon. Cooler and drier conditions are forecast on Saturday night.
Increased southerly flow and swell will result in a HIGH risk of rip currents Friday night into Saturday, with a MODERATE risk anticipated Saturday night into Sunday. Beach-goers should pay close attention to beach flag systems this weekend and follow lifeguard instructions. /21
(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 513am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
A zonal flow pattern should prevail Sunday into Monday. Another shortwave trough embedded within this flow should translate across the Deep South late Sunday into Monday, and will likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Deep layer moisture may be sufficient for some heavy rainfall with this next system Sunday night into Monday, but it is still uncertain where the axis of greater ascent and heavier rainfall amounts may set up, so this will be something to watch over the next few days. A return to shortwave ridging aloft and drier weather is anticipated on Tuesday, although a couple of showers still cannot be ruled out given a rather moist boundary layer over the region. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms has been indicated over our western zones by Wednesday where southwest flow aloft begins to increase. A more unsettled weather pattern could develop by the latter part of next week as deep moisture increases within a persistent southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures otherwise remain look to average above normal through the early to middle part of next week. /21
Issued at 513am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Light winds gradually increase as the wind turns southeasterly throughout this afternoon. Onshore flow persists through early Saturday morning ahead of the next cold front. The front may stall over the Gulf over the weekend before lifting toward land again on Monday. Onshore flow develops again early next week and persists through at least Thursday. 07/mb
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.