Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Tonight...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
1020 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020
A varying light to occasionally moderate northwest to southwest flow is expected through much of the week as a weak pressure pattern remains in place. Seas change little, remaining around 2 feet or less through the period.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1240pm CDT Monday August 3 2020
Near Term - Now Through Tuesday
A look at the geo-potential height field aloft from the 03.12Z upper air analysis shows an anomalous, amplified trough aligned from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf. Normalized H50 height anomalies within the axis of the mean trough over Arkansas are some 2 to 3 standard deviations below the means. Water vapor imagery shows considerable darkening/drier air, over the Lower MS River Valley, spreading eastward into the western half of the local area. Narrow plume of moisture we saw on Sunday that was aligned from the Appalachians to southeast LA has shifted more eastward to the Virginias/Carolinas, southwest to east of I-65. At the surface, a weak pressure trough is aligned from the southeast US, westward across I-10. High resolution forecast guidance remains fairly consistent with developing very isolated convection from contributions of afternoon instability and sufficient moisture convergence along the surface trough axis over portions of southeast MS, southwest/south central AL and the interior western FL panhandle. An assessment of convective micro- burst potential favors a moderate risk of strong, gusty winds following the collapse of any better defined storm cores. A few storms that may carry over into the evening are forecast to have short life spans and dissipate quickly. Tuesday, the northern portion of the mean upper trough axis gradually moves east across the Ohio River Valley, but the southern portion of the trough axis remains in a nearly fixed state over the central Gulf coast. Deep layer moisture Tuesday, with PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) mostly 1.2 to 1.4", is unusually dry for this time of the year standing just a little over two standard deviations below the normal of ~1.80". Even though, a weakly reflected surface trough remains in the vicinity and would provide a source of focus for storm initiation, the depth of the drier air mitigates coverage. For now, feel generally 10% or less best describes Probability of Precipitation Tuesday. The non-zero Probability of Precipitation does account for a few pop-up mainly afternoon storms.
Little change in overnight lows with lower 70s inland. 76 to 81 along the coast. Daytime highs Tuesday range mostly from 89 to 94 inland to 87 to 92 at the coast. /10
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.