Marine Weather Net

Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ670 Forecast Issued: 302 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds, Becoming South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.
Monday...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.
Tuesday...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.
Wednesday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 8 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Wednesday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643am CDT Sat July 20 2024

/issued 255am CDT Sat July 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Now through Sunday) Issued at 252am CDT Sat July 20 2024

Our overall synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the near term period, with upper troughing draped across the south-central CONUS, and upper ridging building west across the Gulf coast region from high pressure centered out over the Atlantic by Sunday. A surface front will remain situated across portions of the Deep South through Sunday as well, generally extending from the Tennessee Valley region southwest across parts of central and northern Mississippi. While there will continue to be a fairly good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, it appears that coverage should not be quite as widespread as the past several days due to less weak shortwave energy aloft and the fact that slight upper ridging will begin to poke into our area from the east. Still expecting a mostly diurnal pattern, with showers and storms diminishing across the entire area during the evening hours and then re-firing near the coast and just offshore during the late night and early morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sunday should be similar to Saturday, starting off in the morning hours near the coast and becoming a little more numerous with best coverage over inland areas during the afternoon hours. As has been the case over the past few days, showers and storms will be somewhat "hit or miss" across the region both Saturday and Sunday, with scattered to locally numerous coverage each day. No one particular location will be looking at a prolonged period of rainfall. Some brief heavy rainfall could be possible in some locations though, and a few of the storms could produce some strong gusty winds during the late afternoon hours each day.

Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with locations that may see a little more rainfall only in the mid 80s. Lows Saturday night mainly in the lower to middle 70s over interior locations, with upper 70s closer to the coast and even some lower 80s at the beaches and along the barrier islands. DS/12

Long Term (Monday through Friday) Issued at 252am CDT Sat July 20 2024

The unsettled weather pattern persists into at least the middle of the week.

Ridging aloft over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the eastern Gulf and Southeast through the period. Meanwhile, a shortwave dives into the Plains early in the week as it rounds the base of a trough sliding across the Great Lakes region. The diffuse shortwave lingers well to the west of our area as the ridge begins to build back toward the Southeast in the middle to latter part of the week. We maintain onshore flow aloft in this pattern as the local area remains sandwiched between the ridge and general troughiness to our northwest. Guidance is still highlighting the potential for a subtle inverted trough to drift into the eastern Gulf around the southern periphery of the ridge early next week with another one potentially late in the week. We may see some additional moisture advected into the region from the latter feature, if it actually materializes, by late next weekend. Down at the surface, the local area remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with onshore flow expected throughout the week. Deep southerly flow will continue to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2.0+ inches expected through at least Thursday. As the ridge noses deeper into the Southeast on Friday and Saturday, moisture levels should begin to drop a tad bit.

In general, expect the typical diurnal pattern in convection with showers and storms flaring up along the coast/nearshore waters after midnight and re-development each afternoon across inland communities. The blended guidance for POPs was far too high throughout the period, so we continued the trend of cutting down the POPs significantly each afternoon to more reasonable values (albeit still higher than what we traditionally see in the summer months). As previously mentioned, ridging becomes more dominant late in the week and into the early part of the weekend which equates to rain chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze). Can't rule out a few strong to potentially severe pulse- type storms each afternoon with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats. That said, storms will be efficient rainmakers, so the predominant threat will be nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

Temperatures continue to be tempered by the chance for rain and increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be several degrees below normal through at least mid-week. Heat indices remain well below Advisory criteria through Friday. As the ridge nears the area over the weekend, we may begin to creep up near Advisory criteria again for a good chunk of the area.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week for the Alabama beaches and through Tuesday for the Florida panhandle beaches. The risk increases to MODERATE on Wednesday for the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities have continued the trend of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle beaches on both Wednesday and Thursday, which is why we opted to increase the forecast to a MODERATE on Wednesday. 07/mb

Marine
Issued at 252am CDT Sat July 20 2024

Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near thunderstorms over the weekend and into the early part of next week. Conditions will also remain favorable for the formation of waterspouts, mainly in the morning hours along possible land breeze boundaries just offshore. Outside of the localized higher winds and seas near showers and thunderstorms, no significant marine impacts expected over the weekend and into the early part of next week. DS/12

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.