Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: South 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming North 25 To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Building To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: South 4 Feet At 7 Seconds And Northwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds, Becoming Northwest 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sunday...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: North 6 Feet At 6 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Becoming Northeast 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: North 6 Feet At 6 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 208pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...NewARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 - There is a low end potential for severe storms mainly along and west of I-65 Friday into Friday night, and across the entire area on Saturday. - Localized flash flooding will be possible mainly across interior southeastern Mississippi and interior southwestern Alabama. - Dense fog development is likely tonight, particularly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Dense marine fog potential will continue through late week. - Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning. Issued at 1208pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 A rather active 48 hours will be possible as our next cold front progresses across the area. Multiple hazards will be possible including strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. Deep southwesterly flow will spread over the area tonight in response to an upper trough digging into the central US and an upper ridge over Florida amplifying. This will allow for deep moisture to continue to surge northward as flow begins to increase. Showers and thunderstorms should develop along a lifting boundary/confluence zone mainly across southeastern Mississippi by midday Friday and persist through the afternoon Friday. Storms will likely train across this zone through much of the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a pair of subtle shortwaves move through the broader southwesterly flow. The exact location of where this band sets up will determine 1. how much rain we could see and 2. the potential for severe weather. If the ridge is a bit stronger and this band sets up further northwest then our area may remain dry until the overnight hours and both the flooding rain threat and severe threat would be limited at best. However, if this band sets up over our area or even a little further east then both severe and locally heavy rainfall potential will increase. This will be the main trend we will have to watch the next 24 hours. By Friday the main upper trough will begin to finally eject eastward which will slowly start to push the front across our area allowing for a line of storms to progress from west to east across the area. Storms should be out of the area by midday Saturday. Severe...This severe threat is a rather tricky and one that isn't screaming widespread severe. The main player will be the aforementioned band of storms late Friday afternoon into early Saturday evening. Forcing will be rather weak as height falls are rather weak and we will be relying on rather weak diffluence and warm advection. What this means is that lift will be rather poor rather than vigorous which means we will have to rely heavily on afternoon instability to get deeper thunderstorms. While we should see some daytime heating on Saturday, a subtle capping inversion (lid on the atmosphere) will likely inhibit stronger instability likely keeping things mostly in check. However, what instability that would develop would be confined to the lowest 3 or 4 km of the atmosphere and with hodographs highly curved with weak storm relative inflows, mini-spinnies would be prominent in this environment and will likely be the biggest concern. The other question will be if this band actually stays in our area. IF the band lifts north by the afternoon or stays west of our area than our severe threat will likely diminish. Nonetheless, the concern will be for a couple of stronger storms along this boundary to pose a threat of damaging winds and potentially a couple of tornadoes. If instability increases then a more significant threat could develop across southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama. An isolated strong storm may persist into the overnight hours but with the lack of diurnal instability storms may struggle overnight unless the form closer to the coast where instability may be slightly higher overnight. The second round of stronger storms would be possible early Saturday morning into the early afternoon as the front moves across the area. While storm coverage will be higher during this period, the overall environment will not be as conducive for strong to severe storms as low level winds veer and the best upper forcing/lift moves well north of the area. However, there will be a period during this time where instability by midday should increase and deep layer shear should be enough to warrant an isolated damaging wind threat and possibly a tornado. While this threat is rather marginal there is enough there to keep an eye on things. The best chance would be mainly east of I-65 around noon before storms exit the area. Heavy Rainfall...Localized heavy rainfall will also be an issue overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. The greatest concern is across southeastern Mississippi into far interior southwestern Alabama where that confluence band sets up overnight. If storms are able to for along that boundary, storms will likely train over the same spots for a couple of hours yielding rainfall totals locally increasing. Current HREF LPMMS are in the 2 to 4 inch range along this boundary with locally higher maxes nearing 6 to 8 inches. Luckily for our area we can handle a fair amount of rainfall. Given PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.5 inches and relatively modest instability, rainfall rates will likely float around 1.5 to 2 inches in the strongest of storms which would be below our 1 hours flash flood guidance. The flooding rain threat is also dependent on the boundary actually setting up across our area overnight and guidance is rather questionable on if this will happen. Given the uncertainty of location and the overall isolated nature of the threat we are not confidence enough in flooding to warrant a flash flood watch at this time. Would we be shocked to see a flash flood warning or two overnight Friday, no. However, we prefer to reserve flash flood warnings for situations for more widespread heavy rainfall and flooding. If guidance begins to support a higher potential for significant flooding or a more widespread threat then a flash flood watch would likely be issued with a later package. Behind this system, temperatures will plummet as cool polar air moves into the area. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with west northwesterly flow aloft keeping things cool and dry. By the middle part of next week, a rather weak upper shortwave will phase with deep upper troughing over the eastern us bringing a quick shot of overrunning precipitation to the area. Luckily this will be just a shot of cold dreary rain before drying out once again by the end of the week. Temperatures will range in the 50s for highs and 20s and 30s for lows. BB/8 Marine Issued at 1208pm CST Thu Jan 8 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow becomes southeasterly on Thursday and continues into Friday. Dense marine fog potential continues through the rest of the week. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. Gusts to gale force will be possible well offshore late Saturday night through Sunday night. BB/8 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2pm CST this afternoon for GMZ630>636- 650-655. |
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