Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southeast. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southeast. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021
A light to moderate southwest wind flow will continue through much of the week as a weak front approaches from the north and stalls. The front is expected to dissipate north of the marine area, with a south to southeast flow then developing late in the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will also continue across the area through mid-week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
415pm CDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
Near Term Update - Now Through Wednesday
A surface front is currently moving into interior sections of the area. Ahead of the front a very deep tropical airmass exists with MLCAPE values around 2K. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop in this moist and unstable airmass and will increase in coverage through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Heavy rain will also remain possible, however widespread flooding is not expected and the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.
The front will stall across the area tonight with continued chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the southern portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across the area again on Wednesday, however lower rain chances are expected due to an upper ridge building in from the west. The highest rain chances on Wednesday will be along the I-10 corridor near the stalled boundary.
Temperatures will be on the increase on Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the mid and upper 60s well inland to mid 70s along the coast. /13
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night
A trough aloft remains smooshed between a ridge aloft over the western Atlantic, and a ridge over TX on Wednesday night. The trough lifts off to the northeast on Thursday, however, a weakness in the trough aloft remains over the far southeast CONUS through Thursday, partly supported by an a trough aloft within easterlies which extends from the southeast Gulf to along the Florida peninsula. This feature in the easterlies slowly drifts westward during the remainder of the period to be mostly oriented from the northeast Gulf into southern Alabama/southwest Georgia while a large positively tilted trough evolves over the Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary across southern Alabama/Mississippi Wednesday night essentially dissipates on Thursday. However, there is a weak convergent zone left behind over the region between a sea breeze and more easterly winds impinging into the northeastern portion of the area associated with surface ridging building into the area from the western Atlantic. Moving forward, a typical summer pattern persists with a surface ridge over the Appalachians now built into the region promoting southeasterly flow over the area.
In terms of sensible weather, given the moisture distribution on Thursday, with weak surface features in place along and a series of modest embedded shortwaves, chance probability of precipitation continue. Moving forward, ample deep layer moisture over the southern portion of the area spreads inland during the day on Friday and with daytime heating and a series of shortwaves moving across the area, expect a diurnal convective cycle to continue for Friday with chance to good chance pops. MLCAPE values on Thursday and Friday are expected to mainly range from 1500-2500 J/kg with shear values remaining low. Expect that slow moving showers and storms could lead to some nuisance flooding type of issues and some strong storms are possible as well. Overnight lows range from around 70 well inland to the mid 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s with some spots potentially reaching the lower 90s. JEH/88
Extended Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
A typical summertime pattern maintains itself over the region through the period with storms being more diurnally driven. A trough aloft persists overs the Plains to near the Great Lakes region through the period with a slight eastward progression. A ridge aloft slowly builds into the area early in the extended and than remains in place through Tuesday. At the surface, ridging remains in place across the southeastern CONUS through the period with some gradual weakening. A light southerly surface flow maintains itself over the forecast area through the period. Given the ample amount of moisture in place due to the southerly flow, combined with the daily seabreeze each day, chance Probability of Precipitation remain the name of the game each day lingering into the early evening through the extended. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the Gulf as the landbreeze moves offshore. For temps, highs will be typical for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Lows temps are expected to be in the low to mid 70s inland and mid 70s to low 80s along the coast. JEH/88
A light to moderate southwest wind flow will continue through much of the week as a weak front approaches from the north and stalls. The front is expected to dissipate north of the marine area, with a south to southeast flow then developing late in the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will also continue across the area through mid-week. /13.
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.