Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...East Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Tonight...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Building To 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 13 To 18 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
934 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
A light to moderate east to northeast wind flow will continue to decrease today as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Increasing onshore flow and building seas again expected late tonight and Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west. This front will advance eastward across the Gulf Coast late Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by a light to moderate northwest to north wind flow through the remainder of the week.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
539am CST Wednesday Jan 22 2020
Near Term - Now Through Wednesday night
An upper level shortwave trough will slowly move east over the Plains, as an upper level ridge over the Mississippi River shifts east to over the East Coast. Low level high pressure stretching southwest over the Appalachians shifts east to over the Eastern seaboard in response, shifting low level flow from north/northeast to easterly, and easing the cool and dry northerly flow over the Southeast.
For Wednesday, upper level shortwave energy embedded in the flow ahead of the upper trough begins to move over the Mississippi River to over the Southeast, bringing increasing mid/upper level cloud cover to the forecast area and surrounding area later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. Subsidence from the upper level ridge and decreasing cool northerly flow will be tempered by the insolation reducing thickening cloud deck, but am still expecting a warmer day today compared to yesterday. High temperatures topping out in the upper 40s and lower 50s are expected.
Wednesday night, as low level flow become southeasterly, increasing isentropic upglide will bring an increasingly thicker cloud deck to the forecast area, with light rainshowers beginning to encroach over the forecast area from the west after midnight. Have went on the warm side of guidance, with the thickening cloud cover expected to help limit overnight radiational cooling. Low temperatures around seasonal expected, ranging from the mid to upper 30s inland to the 40-45 degree range along the coast. /16
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
The upper level trough will exit the the Great Plains on Thursday, and move across the eastern conus through the remainder of the short term. A closed low pressure center is forecast to form within the shortwave over the central plains on Thursday, and deepen as it moves slowly eastward over the Ohio River Valley. In response to the deepening upper low, a surface low pressure area is expected to form over northern Missouri on Thursday and deepen slightly to 1010 mb as it moves eastward. An associated cold front, also exiting the Great Plains on Thursday, is expected to reach the mid/lower Mississippi River early Thursday evening, and then pass through the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. Rain chances will continue to increase on Thursday, with numerous to definite light to moderate rain showers occurring Thursday afternoon and evening. Upper level diffluence southeast of the upper low over the region will enhance the upper level lift during this period, so added a slight chance of thunderstorms embedded within the rain. Severe weather parameters will be very low, so only expecting general thunderstorms. The precipitation will then taper off from west to east across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Widespread rainfall amounts will be around one-half inch, with localized higher amounts around one inch possible. High temperatures will be near normal both Thursday and Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s, while lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday night drop back into the mid 30 to lower 40s Friday night behind the cold front. /22
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The weekend starts off dry as high pressure at the surface slowly moves east into the region. Northwesterly winds will allow drier air to continue to spill into the area through the day on Saturday. Coolest temperatures in the extended period will occur on Saturday and Saturday night before warming slightly each day/night next week.
A shortwave trough dives into the Southeast late Sunday night into early Monday while a low at the surface forms off the TX coast Sunday and drifts eastward into the central Gulf. The local area remains sandwiched between these two features and although moisture return looks meager, we kept the mention of a slight chance for rain across the entire area Sunday afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances remain out over the Gulf on Sunday night as the low progresses east.
We get another brief period of dry weather on Tuesday as an upper level ridge quickly slides into the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, the southern extent of an upper level trough swings down into the southern Plains on Tuesday. Model guidance starts to diverge on the timing/placement of the system next week, but expect higher rain chances as we head into the middle part of next week. 07/mb
MARINE...A light to moderate east to northeast wind flow will continue to decrease today as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Increasing onshore flow and building seas again expected late tonight and Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west. This front will advance eastward across the Gulf Coast late Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by a light to moderate northwest to north wind flow through the remainder of the week. /22
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.