Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: West 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late. |
| Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: West 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: West 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Sunday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds, Becoming Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1236am CDT Sat August 22 2026 Issued at 1234am CDT Sat August 22 2026 Hot and generally drier conditions are expected through the weekend. Lower rain chances are expected thanks to dry air aloft filtering into the region from the north as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Boundary layer mixing each afternoon will help lower surface dew points enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria despite high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. However, a few localized heat index values of 108-110 cannot be ruled out near the coast where less mixing occurs with the sea breeze. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days for most areas. Drier thermodynamic profiles will suppress convective development this weekend, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) falling to around 1.5 inches or lower. However, instability will remain quite high, so any sufficient convergence along the sea breeze or confluence bands could still produce an isolated storm or two each afternoon. With the dry air mass in place aloft, DCAPE values will be very high (around 1500 J/kg), so any storm that manages to initiate would carry the potential for strong microburst winds. That said, Probability of Precipitation remain capped at around 10-20%. It may also be worth noting, several CAMs suggest a decaying MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) dropping southeastward could encroach on our northwestern counties this evening, but confidence is too low at this time to warrant more than 20% PoPs. The northwest flow regime will become increasingly active next week as moisture returns by Monday, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) approaching 2 inches, then gradually increasing through Thursday as ensemble mean PWATs (Precipitable Waters) reach around 2.2 inches. Multiple shortwave impulses rounding the eastern periphery of the strong mid-level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest will track southeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the precise timing and location of individual impulses and associated convection remains uncertain, this general pattern should bring periodic rounds of unsettled weather to the region through the week. Deterministic guidance is fairly consistent in showing the first prominent shortwave approaching from the northwest during the day on Monday, introducing increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. The next main shortwave looks to impact the region in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, potentially bringing a more substantial threat for widespread showers and storms given the deeper moisture in place. Trends will be monitored for any flash flood or severe potential. Even in the absence of these disturbances, ample moisture and instability will favor scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, primarily focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Increased cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures closer to average next week. Highs are forecast generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-107 range. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through early next week. JGC/98 Marine Issued at 325am CDT Fri August 21 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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