Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming East 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southeast. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming South 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
1101 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
Winds will diminish tonight and a light onshore flow will continue through Monday night. By early Tuesday, a moderate to strong onshore flow is expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead and along the front on Tuesday. A moderate offshore flow is then likely to develop late Tuesday night in the wake of the front and then persist through Wednesday. A light east/northeast flow is expected on Thursday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159pm CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
Near Term - Now Through Sunday night
Finally a little change from the beastly ridge that has brought record highs and dry weather for what seems like the whole month of March. A strong upper trough currently centered over the northern plains will continue to progress eastward tonight as a deepening surface low near Iowa continues to occlude. Adjacent to the surface low, a polar front will continue to surge southeastward across Mississippi. Showers and storms will accompany the front all the way to our doorstep. Unfortunately with the upper forcing displaced well off to the north, most of the rain will likely fall apart. High resolution guidance continues to have a rather lame and wimpy line of "showers?" move into our northwestern zones late tonight and approaching the I-65 corridor between 9 am and noon.
With the front loosing its forcing and the upper trough quickly moving off to the northeast, the line or whats left of it will probably slow and stall somewhere east of I-65. I wen't ahead and lowered the chance of rain for tomorrow given the high res guidance and most areas will probably not see rain tomorrow. Dry conditions will move in behind the front with better rain chances returning in the short term.
Outside of the chance of rain, there could be some patchy fog ahead of the front early tomorrow morning. Given dewpoints in the low 70s and continued southerly flow, the pattern supports some fog much like last night. Low temperatures will remain warm tonight with high 60s inland and near 70 at the coast. Even with the presence of the front, temperatures will likely warm up into the low 80s tomorrow and given how weak the front is don't expect much of a cooldown if any from this one. For a good cool down you will have to look towards the extended period. High risk of rip currents will as continue through tomorrow with the continued southerly flow. BB/03
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday night/...Overall the near term forecast remains on track with no changes during this cycle. We still expect a rather weak and piddly line of storms to move into the area late tonight associated with a weak cold front. The best chance of rain remains north and west of I-65. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with southerly winds continuing. With the continued southerly wind, a high risk of rip currents will continue into tomorrow. BB/03
AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions across the area will continue into the night. Winds will remain southerly through midnight as a weak front will approach the area tonight. Ahead of the boundary, cigs might drop to MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) values tonight and persist into the morning. Some area of patchy fog could be possible but kept visbys in the MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) category. Showers and a few storms will be possible late tonight north and west of I-65 but should diminish throughout the night. By tomorrow ceilings should rise in the wake of the front as winds turn out north northwest by tomorrow night. BB/03
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...The upper level ridge will begin to break down and move eastward today as a trough makes its way over the central CONUS. This feature will quickly develop into a cutoff low that will progress northeastward up through the upper Mississippi Valley and over the Great Lakes region by late weekend. This will then result in a more zonal pattern by late weekend for the northern Gulf coast. Coincident with the upper levels, a surface low pressure system will track across the central Plains and over the Great Lakes through the weekend. A cold front associated with this low will track across the ARKLATEX region this evening and overnight tonight. By tomorrow morning, the front will be on our doorstep with FROPA expected tomorrow evening.
Sensible weather will consist of dry conditions for the rest of this afternoon and this evening. Some mid-level clouds have formed and are streaming in from the south this afternoon as well. Some patchy fog development is possible over the inland areas late tonight, particularly in the east as shown by model probabilities. However, any fog will quickly dissipate by tomorrow morning. Clouds will also be on the increase overnight as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Hi-Res models show a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms traversing the southeastern CONUS late tonight, but weakening substantially over time through tomorrow morning and afternoon with FROPA. Models indicate around 500 to 700 J/kg of MLCAPE, with around 1000 J/kg along and just ahead of the front as it passes over the region. Although, it will remain to be seen whether the convective inhibition present will hinder any thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, there is at least a slight chance of a few embedded thunderstorms tomorrow with the amount of elevated instability shown by model guidance. Showers and any embedded storms will then gradually decrease through the afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Lows tonight will then be in the mid to upper 60s inland to around 70 degrees right along the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler due to FROPA, with temperatures in the lower 80s expected in the west and mid to upper 80s likely in the east.
Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents continues through Sunday, mainly due to 2 ft/6-10 sec onshore swell. /26
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night
A deep layer ridge of high pressure will extend from the southern Gulf of Mexico through the FL peninsula and adjacent western Atlantic on Sunday night. West to southwest flow aloft will be prevalent across the north central Gulf Coast region to the northwest of this feature. A weak shortwave trough within this flow pattern will allow the weak surface cold front to sink southward through the forecast area and become positioned over the far northern Gulf by 12Z Monday morning. Little in the way of moisture or ascent is currently indicate with guidance trends, so will keep a dry forecast going on Sunday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler as surface high pressure builds into the area with light northerly flow, and expect Sunday night lows to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s over interior areas, and in the mid 60s along the immediate coast.
The upper level ridge of high pressure will flatten over the far southern Gulf Monday into Monday night, while the next upper level trough located over the vicinity of the Four Corners Region early Monday morning moves eastward toward the central plains states and adjacent Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley regions Monday into Monday night. Surface high pressure located over the Tennessee Valley and northern MS/AL Monday gradually weakens into Monday night as surface low pressure over northwest TX Monday moves toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The frontal boundary over the northern Gulf early Monday morning will slowly retreat northward near the immediate coast through Monday afternoon, before lifting north as a warm front across the rest of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Deep layer moisture gradually trends upward across southeast MS and interior southwest AL Monday and Monday evening, and weak ascent could support the development of a few showers over these zones during this time frame. Moisture/ ascent will increase across the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as the shortwave trough lifts toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley region (and as the surface low moves from the Lower MS Valley toward central MS/AL). Showers along with a chance of thunderstorms will spread across the region late Monday night and especially into Tuesday morning. We will maintain likely POPs over southeast MS and interior southwest AL late Monday night (with chance POPs spreading over most of the rest of the forecast area during this time frame), before POPs become categorical (~80-90%) in nature over most of the CWA Tuesday morning. Surface dewpoints rising into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees will allow for an increasingly unstable airmass Tuesday morning, with MLCAPE values potentially as high as 500-1000 J/KG across much of the region. Deep layer/effective shear is also quite strong over our area (>65 knots). These factors could support a damaging wind threat over the area as convection quickly moves east across our area Tuesday morning. There could also a brief opportunity for a tornado given a narrow zone of 0-1km storm relative helicity values between 200-300 m2/s2 over the region, but the tornado threat seems lower at this time. Drier and cooler conditions follow for Tuesday night. /21
EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as dry northwest flow aloft Wednesday transitions to shortwave ridging aloft by Thursday. Moistening zonal flow may return late in the extended period, which could allow POPs to trend upward again Friday into Saturday. We added low POPs mainly over central and southern zones Friday and Friday night, with slight chance POPs area wide Saturday. /21
MARINE...Moderate southerly winds will continue through this afternoon, then diminish tonight and become southwesterly early Sunday. A light southeasterly flow will then develop Monday, then switch to a moderate to strong southwesterly flow early Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead and along the front on Tuesday. A moderate northerly flow is then expected to develop late Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. With these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed Tuesday and Tuesday night. Northerly winds will persist through Wednesday but decrease to be light through the day. Light east/northeast winds are then expected on Thursday. /26
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.