Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Wed...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. S Swell 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. S Swell 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft And S 2 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft And S 2 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
150pm PDT Tuesday July 27 2021
Through Thursday, dry and warm conditions can be expected across the area. Low clouds and fog will continue to impact coastal areas during the night and morning hours. On Friday and Saturday, some monsoonal moisture may move into the area. For Sunday through early next week, warm and dry conditions are expected.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...27/149 PM.
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, main feature of note will be strong high than remains entrenched over the central part of the country. Near the surface, moderate onshore gradients will prevail through the period with some increase in northerly offshore gradients the next few nights.
Forecast-wise, main issues of concern will be extent of coastal stratus, northerly winds and another round of monsoonal moisture. With respect to monsoonal moisture, some lingering moisture this afternoon will bring the threat of showers/thunderstorms to the LA Mountains and Antelope Valley as models indicate decent moisture and instability. Once the sun sets, any convective activity will end. For Wednesday and Thursday, models do not forecast any noticeable influx of monsoonal moisture. However on Friday, models increase the mid level moisture across the area as upper level flow remains southeasterly. At this time, this moisture push does not look too problematic. There will likely just be enough moisture and instability to warrant a slight chance of afternoon showers over the LA Mountains and adjacent Antelope Valley foothills.
As for the marine layer stratus/fog, models indicate H5 heights slightly increase through the period. So, the marine inversion, currently around 1500 fee deep, should become a bit more shallow the next few evenings. So with continued onshore gradients, stratus and fog will continue to impact the coastal plain during the night and morning hours, but should have limited impact on the coastal valleys. Stratus/fog should dissipate nicely each day with mostly clear skies prevailing in the afternoon hours.
As for winds, the increasing northerly gradients will bring some locally gusty Sundowner winds to southern Santa Barbara county. At this time, the winds do not look to be too strong or widespread. However for Wednesday night and Thursday night, would expect some local gusts around 40 MPH in the usual windy spots (from Gaviota westward). Otherwise, will just anticipate the usual gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon and evening.
As for temperatures, will anticipate some slight warming Wednesday and Thursday with less marine influence and slightly higher H5 heights/thicknesses. However on Friday, most areas will cool off a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...27/149 PM.
For the extended period, models continue to be on the same synoptic page. Main feature of note will continue to be the upper level high over the central part of the country. Through the period, the high will gradually move westward, taking up residence over the northern Great Basin by Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast-wise, no major issues are anticipated. On Saturday, southeasterly flow aloft will continue to allow some mid level moisture to move into the area. Models currently are not too excited about precipitation chances as instability does not look to be too significant. Will continue with slight chance showers for LA Mountains and Antelope Valley Saturday afternoon, but will not mention any thunderstorm threat at this time (given limited instability). Of course, this situation could change over the next few days and changes to the convective forecast would not be surprised.
Otherwise, a pretty straightforward forecast for the area. With the high gradually moving westward, the chances for any mid level moisture will end Sunday and remain a non-factor Monday and Tuesday. So, will just be dealing with the marine layer stratus. Marine inversion will remain rather shallow, so stratus/fog should generally be confined to the coastal plain each night and morning. There may be some partly cloudy skies on Saturday, but otherwise mostly clear conditions are anticipated (outside of the stratus and fog).
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across most of the coastal waters thru Sat. However, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across the southern outer waters Thu afternoon and evening, and again Fri thru Sat.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).
Monsoonal thunderstorms are possible starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.