Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight.|
|Thu...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming Sw 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning, Then Patchy Fog.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Local Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt Early, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
458pm PDT Wednesday May 5 2021
A broad area of low pressure will approach the West Coast tonight. Increasing onshore flow will bring a deeper marine layer and cooling trend into the weekend. Onshore flow will weaken early next week and a slight warming trend will take place.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...05/147 PM.
A shallow but strong inversion coupled with an eddy circulation (or two in the Santa Barbara Channel) is making for a tough clearing day at the coast and quite cool with temps only in the 60s at most. A sharp contrast to the valleys which are actually slightly warmer today than yesterday with several areas in the low to mid 90s. Today should be the hottest day inland as gradients start to trend onshore tomorrow ahead of the next trough that is just now hitting the Pac NW. Looking for 4-8 degrees of cooling tomorrow then again Friday when highs are back to near normal levels.
With the cooling aloft associated with the trough and increasing onshore flow the marine layer will deepen through the end of the week. Probably not much tonight but certainly Thursday night and Friday with clouds expected to push well into the valleys. Following the trough passage Friday west to northwest winds will kick up, especially Central Coast, southern SB County, and the Antelope Valley. Low end wind advisories possible in any of those areas Friday and Saturday. Clearing at the coast will continue to be slow or non-existent, though better clearing is likely Friday afternoon when the trough moves through.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...05/203 PM.
There's a fair amount of model disagreement with the upper level pattern over the weekend into early next week, though impacts either way are fairly minimal. Some of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensembles are a little warmer with a more progressive pattern and faster height rises over the West Coast while the GFS ensembles favor more of a troughy pattern with a deeper low over the Idaho. The official forecast leans towards a slightly warmer ECMWF solution but could certainly see this going either way. In any case, no big heat waves coming in the next week to ten days and overall a pretty quiet pattern.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in forecast. Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thru Thu morning. Good confidence in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds spreading from N to S across the outer waters Thu afternoon and evening, then continue at least at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Sun. There is a 40-50% chance of Gale Force winds Fri night thru Sat night, and a 40% chance Sun. The best chance for gales is for the waters north of the Channel Islands. Gales appear far less likely south of the Channel Islands.
For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Thu morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds Thu afternoon and evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected much of the time Fri afternoon thru Sun, with a 30% chance of Gales force winds Fri afternoon and evening.
For the Inner Waters S Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence in forecast. Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Sun, except SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are likely across the western SBA Channel Fri afternoon thru Fri night, and there is a 30-40% of SCA level winds there Sat afternoon into Sat evening.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2pm Thursday to 5pm PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5pm Thursday to 5pm PDT Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11pm Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).
No significant hazards expected.