Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Tue...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less In The Morning, Except Nearshore Between Pt. Mugu And Leo Carrillo In The Morning. Otherwise, Becoming Sw 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Wed...Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 4 Ft At 13 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 17 Seconds. Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 3 Ft And S 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
947pm PST Monday Mar 1 2021
An area of low pressure aloft will approach the southern California coast through Wednesday. Warm and dry conditions will linger into Tuesday, then cooler and cloudier conditions along with a chance of light rain will develop Wednesday for the Southland. Weak high pressure aloft will build for Thursday and Friday, then there will be another chance of rain across the area on Saturday.
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...01/924 PM.
The latest satellite imagery shows an upper-level trough of low pressure near 38N and 129W, or about 700 miles northwest of Los Angeles. A ridge of high pressure, now located over the Four Corners region will continue to move east as the trough to the northwest will dig south and lift out into southern California. An offshore flow component will linger into Tuesday and very likely keep continued to warm and dry conditions in the forecast. Southeast low-level flow will likely be the driver for another warm day across the region on Tuesday. The current forecast takes a warm stance and it looks agreeable for most areas. The exception could be along the Central Coast where low clouds and fog could develop on Tuesday morning and bring a few degrees of cooling that is not in forecast.
Satellite fog product channels and nighttime microphysics RGBs show stratus slowly marching toward the Central Coast this evening. As the air mass is transitioning from offshore flow to onshore flow, any stratus could arrive in the form of dense fog. With weak onshore pressure gradients lingering this evening, patchy low clouds and dense fog could make into the Central Coast by Tuesday morning. The latest update to the forecast accounts for this.
***From Previous Discussion***
Still plenty of uncertainty for the Wednesday precipitation event, especially north of LA County. It's a cutoff low that is dropping south about 600 nm west of the California coast. Models were in pretty good agreement this morning on the low moving inland Wednesday afternoon near Orange County with most ensembles showing at least some rain falling across LA/Ventura Counties and as far north as Santa Barbara. The 12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensembles were a little less enthusiastic about it and the 18z NAM dialed the precipitation amounts back almost in half from the 12z run, which in itself was a big increase from the earlier run. probability of precipitation were substantially increased for southern areas Wednesday afternoon and evening based on the good agreement in the 12z runs, though the latter two developments are not as encouraging. Still feel like given the location of the low it's likely most southern areas will get at least some precip but it may end up being more scattered in nature. Amounts expected to generally a quarter inch or less
Snow levels will be fairly low, generally in the 4500-5000' range. There's a lot of cold, dry air ahead of it and it's possible we could see some snow as low as 4000 feet early in the event, but amounts would not likely be enough to cause any significant issues.
Another potential issue is instability as the cold air aloft moves in during the peak heating period late in the afternoon. Although the best chances are to the south, can't rule out an isolated storm, especially from Catalina Island south towards the OC/SD county line. May need to consider adding storms there in subsequent forecast updates.
System quickly moves out before sunrise Thursday and ridging develops for sunny skies, dry weather and near normal temps.
Long Term - Friday through Monday
Quiet weather on Friday with light offshore flow and temps 5-10 degrees above normal. Another system hits the West Coast Saturday but most solutions favor this one dropping as far south as Santa Barbara County but leaving most of LA/Ventura Counties dry. Then dry with near normal temps Sun/Mon. Another system for late Monday into Tuesday seems to be a little stronger with more cold air and a much deeper trough but the alignment is more north/south which generally is colder and more unstable but not as wet.
Outer Waters... Small Craft Advisories (SCA) are not expected through the week. A larger swell will develop bringing the potential of 10 to 12 foot seas across the Outer Waters Friday night into Saturday. Otherwise, expect weak southerly winds for areas N of Point Conception and the Channel Islands through Tuesday eve, while winds will be weak and variable for the southern outer waters. Weak to locally moderate northwest winds will develop on Wednesday as a storm system across the southern portion moves out of the forecast area Wednesday evening. There is a 10% chance for thunderstorms across the eastern portion of PZZ676 Wednesday afternoon.
Inner Waters N of Point Sal... No Small Craft Advisories are expected through the week. There is a 30% chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for hazardous seas by Friday night into Saturday.
Inner Waters S of Point Conception... Weak offshore winds between Ventura and Point Mugu nearshore are expected early Tuesday morning. There is a 20% offshore winds will reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Otherwise, winds will remain light through Tuesday evening. A storm system coming up from the southwest will cause south to southeast winds to increase but should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through Wednesday morning. There is a 30-40% chance that gusts to 25 knots will occur across the San Pedro Channel. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will weaken and shift to the west. There is a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms to develop off the Orange County Coast Wednesay afternoon. Winds will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through at least Friday.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).
There is a chance of rain Saturday across the region. Gusty northerly winds could develop between Saturday night and Monday night, especially during the night and morning hours.