Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 3 Ft And S 2 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
526am PST Sat Nov 28 2020
Gusty northeast winds will be strongest over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties today. Overnight lows will be cold with areas of patchy frost in wind sheltered areas this morning and Sunday morning. Afternoon temperatures will warm slightly through Wednesday then will cool at the end of next week.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...28/525 AM.
Clear skies across the entire region early this morning. The KLAX to KDAG gradient was about 4 mb offshore this morning, only about 1 mb less so than at this time on Fri, but upper level support has greatly diminished. There will be areas of gusty northeast winds through this morning in the mtns of L.A. and VTU Counties, in the Santa Clarita and northern and western San Fernando Valleys, the Ventura County valleys, the Ventura County coast, and coastal sections of L.A. County below passes and canyons from Malibu to the Hollywood Hills. However, for the most part, expect winds to remain below advisory levels, though there may be some advisory level gusts to 45 to 50 mph in the windiest locations in the mtns and to 35 to 40 mph in the windiest locations in the valleys and coastal areas. Winds should begin to diminish in most areas by late morning.
It will be a cold start to the day in wind sheltered locations. Freeze warnings are in effect for the Ojai Valley and Frost Advisories are in effect for the Central Coast through mid morning, and they look on target. It should warm up nicely today. With rising heights/thicknesses and offshore flow, expect max temps today to be a few degrees higher than they were Fri in most areas, generally slightly above normal, at least west of the mtns.
A very weak upper trough will move to the south of the region tonight, then a ridge will build into the area Sun, causing heigheights to rise a bit. There will be little change in heigheights Mon, though the upper flow will become a bit more northerly.
At the surface, offshore flow will continue through Mon, with gradients between KLAX and KDAG just slightly weaker than they are this morning. Expect gusty winds during the night thru morning hours tonight thru Monday in the mtns/valleys of L.A./VTU Counties and the VTU County coastal plain, with winds remaining below advisory levels. The WRF indicates more in the way of northeast winds on the Central Coast Monday morning. Skies will be clear thru the period. Max temps will likely be up a couple more degrees in most areas Sun, with little change Mon. It will be chilly each night. Frost advisories may be needed for the Central Coast tonight, with frost advisories or freeze warnings possibly needed for the Ojai Valley. However, numerical guidance shows temps a bit higher tonight, so have not issued them at this point.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/521 AM.
The upper level ridge will hang tough along the West Coast Mon night and Tue. N-S gradients will increase, so expect some gusty N winds across southern SBA County and thru the I-5 Corridor. It will remain clear and very dry. Do not expect much in the way of changes in max temps, except for possibly some warming across SLO and SBA Counties.
There are some significant differences between the deterministic runs of the GFS and the EC from Tuesday thru Fri. The EC shows an upper level low dropping southward into AZ on Tue, while the GFS is much weaker and farther east with it. The EC shows that upper low pulling into northern Mexico on Wed, while the GFS shows short wave energy diving south and forming an upper low in northern Arizona. Despite these differences, both models keep relatively high heigheights across the region with a ridge along or just off the West Coast. Low level flow will become northeasterly. So, clear skies and dry weather are likely. Max temps will be a bit tricky, but will likely remain above normal, at least west of the mtns.
The GFS shows a very steep height gradient across the region Wed night and Thu between the upper low in Arizona and a strong upper high in Oregon. It also shows exceptionally strong surface gradients of about 10 mb offshore between KLAX and KDAG. This deeply layered northeasterly flow through the atmosphere would be conducive for a powerful Santa Ana wind event across the region Wednesday night and Thu. The EC is more modest, less windy, and warmer. The GFS is so anomalous looking it is difficult to believe, but it has been consistent, so this has to be watched carefully. It will be clear and dry Thu for sure. The question is exactly how windy it will be. If the stronger wind scenario comes to fruition, it will likely be cooler than forecast, especially across the interior. For Fri, the GFS holds on to strong, though weaker winds, while the EC shows a weak upper low approaching the coast for some possible slight cooling. The EC ensembles, it should be noted support at least a moderate Santa Ana wind event in the Wed-Thu time period.
Across the outer waters... Winds will likely increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. The strongest winds will be in the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level.
Across the nearshore waters of the Central Coast... Conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level through the forecast period.
Across the inner waters south of Point Conception... Conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level through the forecast period.
Gusty northeast winds continued to affect portions of L.A. and VTU Counties this morning, but were not nearly as strong as they were on Fri. However, relative humidities remained very low, in the single digits to mid teens. As a result, the secondary Red Flag criteria are expected to be met through this evening for the Los Angeles and Ventura mountains and windiest valleys (Santa Clarita and Ventura Valleys). A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas through 6pm this evening.
Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend, with highs generally between 68 and 78 degrees. Northeast wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are also expected over the wind prone areas of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties as well, resulting in elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. Dry air will persist across the area through next Thursday, with gusty north winds possible Monday night into Tuesday. There is a growing potential for moderate Santa Ana winds and possible Red Flag conditions developing over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime between Wednesday and Thursday.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Frost Advisory in effect until 9am PST this morning for zones 34-35. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Warning in effect until 9am PST this morning for zone 44. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6pm PST this evening for zones 244>246-253-254-288. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...NONE.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).
An extended dry and warmer pattern is expected through Monday with persistent elevated fire weather conditions. Another strong Santa Ana wind event with critical fire weather conditions is possible next Wednesday or Thursday.