Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...From Point Mugu To Santa Monica, Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 20 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Elsewhere, N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Fri...From Point Mugu To Santa Monica And S Of Palos Verdes, Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Elsewhere, Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. Se Swell 2 Ft In The Evening.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 Ft At 14 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. S Swell 2 Ft In The Evening.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 8 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 6 Seconds.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 5 Ft.|
| 238 AM PST Fri Jan 28 2022 |
Synopsis for the southern California coast and Santa Barbara Channel including the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and National Park - PZZ600
at 09Z, or 1 AM PST, a 1048 MB high was located over Idaho. Gusty NE winds will affect Santa Ana wind prone areas of the inner waters tonight through Friday morning.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1014pm PST Thu Jan 27 2022
Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected tonight through at least Friday then weaken through the weekend. A cooling trend is expected next week as high pressure weakens but no rain is expected.
Short Term - Thursday through Sunday
The LAX-DAG pressure gradient was -4.0 mb at 03Z and is forecast by the latest NAM to fall to -8.3 mb at 12Z late tonight. Offshore flow was already in place this evening for the VTU/L.A. County mtns and many vlys, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph in the windier mtns and foothills. With the strong offshore gradients and some thermal support, conditions are on track for these winds to increase further overnight and spread to the lower vlys and some coastal areas. Wind Advisories are in affect for much of VTU/L.A. Counties tonight into Fri, with gusts in the 40 to 55 mph range expected, strongest in the mtns, including the Santa Monica Mtns. Please see the latest Non-Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details.
Mostly clear skies this evening will continue overnight, with just a few high clouds from time to time. A dry airmass over the region will help to promote good radiational cooling in the sheltered areas. This will lead to freezes in the SLO County interior vlys and Antelope Vly, with patchy frost in other sheltered areas such as the Santa Ynez Vly and the Ojai Vly.
***From Previous Discussion***
A cold surface high pressure area will build tonight over the intermountain west. As this happens, offshore surface pressure gradients from the northeast will strengthen and Santa Ana winds will pick back up. By early Friday morning, the 12Z run of the NAM forecasts the LAX-DAG gradient to peak around -9 mb. Typically the NAM runs about 2 mb too strong, so the gradient would likely verify closer to -7 mb. The 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are in similar agreement though slightly weaker with the gradient peaking around -5 or -6 mb. In addition to a decent gradient to kick up winds, there will also be a lot of cold advection as a tight thermal gradient will form as cold air banks up along the north side of the mountains. This will increase subsidence and give momentum to the wind to reach the coastal areas from Ventura to Malibu and even over the inner coastal waters by the overnight to early morning hours. An important item of note for this Santa Ana wind event is that the flow aloft is more easterly with not much push from the north. What does this mean for the actual wind event? This will open the door for more wind to flow through Ventura County. To put that in perspective, the wind event from last weekend that had a more northerly push had a greater impact through LA County. The axis of strongest winds for this event (aside from ridgetops) will likely run from the Santa Clarita Valley westward towards Ventura. Wind Advisories will go into effect at 7pm for the LA and Ventura County mountains, wind-prone valleys (this does NOT include Antelope Valley or San Gabriel Valley), and coastal areas (from Ventura to the Hollywood Hills). They will last through Friday afternoon with the strongest winds expected in the morning. Upper-level support and cold advection die off Friday afternoon, but high-resolution guidance indicates breezy to gusty winds lasting through Saturday morning. Therefore may need to extend the advisories, but will wait until tomorrow to make that call.
Thanks to cold advection, overnight low temperatures are expected to be quite cold across the interior and over wind-sheltered areas (e.g., Ojai). The Antelope Valley will be the coldest, with temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s expected again. Other cold areas will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. With temperatures this cold it will be critical to make sure all pets are brought inside. High temperatures on Friday will be a battle between cold advection and downslope warming. I'm thinking the cold advection will win out especially through the main wind corridor so temperatures will max out 3 to 6 degrees cooler than today. Saturday will start out as another very chilly morning but not quite as cold as Friday. Despite less cold advection, heights will lower from an upper-level low moving through with a grip of clouds so highs on Saturday will likely cool further, except the interior. A small ridge develops on Sunday and the entire area will warm, especially over the interior.
Long Term - Monday through Thursday
The extended period of the forecast will be marked by a longwave trough extending across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. There are some differences between how the GFS and ECMWF operational runs handle the evolution of the pattern. The GFS shows a couple impulses moving through the flow from the north on Tuesday into Wednesday and again on Thursday. With the ECMWF at a lower resolution, these features are not as defined. Along with their slew of ensemble members, both models (as well as the Canadian and its ensemble members) agree that the future looks dry.
The main weather highligheights for this period are some cooling each day as well as a potential for more wind. Temperatures will return back to below seasonal norms by mid-week. High temperatures will be in the 60s near the coast and upper 50s inland. Offshore pressure gradients strengthen on Wednesday as an inside slider is expected to move through. There is a lot of spread in the EPS members so the wind forecast is very low confidence for now, but there is a chance of another round of gusty offshore winds.
For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NE winds are expected south of Pt. Conception to San Nicolas Island late tonight through Friday morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the period.
For the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds are expected from Ventura to Malibu and out to Anacapa/Santa Cruz Islands tonight and into the afternoon Friday. There is a 40% chance these winds could continue into the evening. Otherwise, SCA conditions are not expected through the period.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 4pm PST Friday for zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Friday for zones 650-655.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3am to 3pm PST Friday for zones 673-676.
Hazard Potential Outlook (Sunday - Thursday)
There is a chance of gusty northerly winds by the middle of next week.