Marine Weather Net

Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ655 Forecast Issued: 201 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight...Sw Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Mon...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 17 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Mon Night...W Wind 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Tue...Light Winds, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Tue Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Wed...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Wed Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Thu Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Fri...Light Winds, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Fri Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
722pm PDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Synopsis
16/222 PM.

Temperatures will cool off by a few degrees in most areas this upcoming week, following the warm to hot conditions from this weekend. Strong northwest to north winds will impact the Central Coast through interior sections of Santa Barbara County to the Antelope Valley through Monday night. The strongest winds are expected to affect the Interstate-5 corridor of northwest Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountains, where critical fire-weather conditions are also expected. In addition, the winds may shift to a northeasterly direction Monday night into Tuesday, spreading across the Los Angeles County mountains, the Santa Monicas, and adjacent eastern Ventura County.

Short Term - Sunday through Wednesday
16/223 PM.

Significant deepening of a Pacific Northwest upper low will sharpen midlevel height gradients and intensify deep-layer wind fields within the base of the amplifying trough extending over southern California. This will send significant upper support southward across the forecast area tonight, causing an unseasonably-anomalous strong low-level mass response over the local area. Corresponding northwest to north winds will increase this evening into tonight over interior sections. Gusts will increase to 60-70 mph in High Wind Warning areas (Ventura County mountains eastward to the western Antelope Valley Foothills including the Interstate-5 corridor of northwest Los Angeles County, as well as the southwest Santa Barbara County mountains and coast). Surrounding Wind Advisories are in effect for many areas from the Antelope Valley westward to the Central Coast, where gusts of 35-55 mph are expected.

Similar wind speeds are expected to occur through at least Monday night, and High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been extended in time through Monday night. In addition, the southward mass flux in the low levels, in response to the strengthening upper support, is expected to form a strong coastal/barrier northerly jet just offshore. The latest data is showing an increasing signal for cross-stream speed shear across the jet to interact with coastline curvature in the Southern California Bight to promote the development of a strong Catalina Eddy from Monday into Tuesday. The circulation around this eddy is expected to drive a Santa Ana wind-type response, causing a wind shift to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. And with with nocturnal drainage flow enhancements, north to northeast winds could remain quite strong Monday night through Tuesday. There is a 60% chance for wind headlines to be extended through Tuesday and/or spread across the Los Angeles County mountains and Santa Monicas including adjacent parts of Ventura County.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for gusty northwest to north winds and low relative humidity for the Interstate-5 corridor in northwest Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountains in effect until 3pm PDT Monday, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elsewhere, elevated to briefly critical fire-weather conditions are expected across the interior and southern Santa Barbara County. Additional information is available in the Fire Weather section below, as well as the Fire Weather Planning Forecast. Also, smoke from the Post Fire complex will affect a large portion of LA County and eastern Ventura County and will bring air-quality impacts to many areas. Please reference the Air Quality Alert Message for additional information.

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the midlevel height gradient is expected to weaken while broad upper troughing persists across the region. Correspondingly, low level winds across the region are forecast to begin a weakening trend, and present indications are that wind headlines will be unlikely after Tuesday.

With the reinforced upper troughing persisting over the region through mid-week, temperatures are not expected to be as warm across the region as they were over this weekend. In addition, surface pressure gradients at the larger scale will be gradually turning increasingly more onshore through early to mid week. This will favor deepening of the marine layer with increasing coverage of marine stratus and fog, and perhaps night/morning drizzle. This will result in additional cooling for the coasts and coastal valleys. Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to have cooled to within a few degrees of normal, generally in the 70s except upper 60s at the beaches and in the 80s and 90s over some of the interior valleys and foothills.

Long Term - Thursday through Sunday
16/223 PM.

The axis of broad mid and upper troughing will shift slightly offshore for Thursday and Friday, as small-scale impulses pivoting through the surrounding cyclonic flow reposition its primary axis. This will favor continued deepening of the marine layer, with abundant night and morning marine stratus and fog over the coasts and coastal valleys. As a subtropical ridge builds westward from the south-central CONUS for late in the week into next weekend, larger-scale onshore pressure gradients will substantially strengthen. This will reinforce low clouds and fog at the coast while supporting stronger heating over the interior.

With the midlevel ridging, high temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s to around 100 degrees over many interior valleys, and upwards of 105 degrees in the Antelope Valley next weekend. In addition, as midlevel heigheights rise next weekend, more substantial diurnal clearing may occur over inland areas away from the coast owing to increasingly shallow marine-layer depths. This could expand the areal coverage of very warm to hot temperatures closer toward the coast next weekend.

Marine
16/1256 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds are expected to remain at Gale force levels through Monday. So, GALE WARNINGS will remain in place during this time (with a 20% chance of Storm force winds through tonight). Seas will peak in the 11 to 14 foot range through Monday. For Tuesday through Friday night, winds will subside, but remain at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels while seas drop below 10 feet.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds this afternoon through tonight and a GALE WARNING remains in effect. Seas will peak between 10 to 13 foot through tonight. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds, mainly afternoons and evenings. For Thursday through Friday night, winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the western Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in Gale Force Winds this afternoon through tonight and a GALE WARNING remains in effect. The winds will be strongest from mid channel and westward. For Monday through Wednesday, there will be a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, mainly afternoons and evenings. Otherwise and elsewhere over the inner waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Friday night.

Across much of the coastal waters, steep and dangerous seas can be expected into mid week.

Beaches
16/1258 PM.

Short-period wind waves, due to gale force winds over the nearby coastal waters, will generate significant surf conditions along the local beaches through Monday, mainly on west and northwest facing beaches. High surf of 4 to 7 feet will impact the beaches of Ventura county. For the beaches along the Central Coast as well as Los Angeles county, elevated surf conditions will continue through Monday. Along with the surf conditions, dangerous rip currents can be expected into early this week.

Fire Weather
16/223 PM.

GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the ongoing Post Fire complex in the vicinity of the I-5 corridor in northwest LA County and adjacent northern Ventura County continues to grow in size and intensity. Weather conditions will become increasingly conducive for further growth and intensification of this complex, especially tonight, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the I-5 corridor in northwest LA County and the Ventura County Mountains. For these areas, the latest data suggest that northwest to north winds will gust to 45 to 55 mph today, increase to 60 to 70 mph range tonight, and then gradually decrease to 30 to 50 mph through the day Monday. Sustained wind speeds will generally be in the 20 to 40 mph range. These strong winds, with the notable uptick tonight, will be caused by increasing upper support overspreading Southern California in the base of a deepening cyclone centered well north of the area. The upper pattern will also bring an influx of abundant dry air into the area, and minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range from 15 to 25 percent, locally as low as 10 percent in downslope- flow favored areas -- with only poor to moderate overnight recovery to around 25 to 40 percent tonight. While live fuel moisture readings are still quite high, ample fuel loading of dead fuels is likely contributing to the extreme fire behavior with the Post Fire complex, and increasingly favorable meteorological conditions are expected to foster further growth and intensification of this fire complex or any other fires developing in the Red Flag Warning area. The Red Flag Warning is currently set to expire at 3PM PDT Monday, however, conditions will be re-evaluated for possible extension of the Warning in subsequent forecasts, given the potential for gusty winds to continue into Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 40 percent chance that the Red Flag Warning is extended into Monday night or Tuesday. There is also the potential for winds to shift to the northeast Monday night and Tuesday.

Elsewhere across the region, gusty northwest to north winds are expected to continue through Monday, peaking in intensity tonight with a secondary peak Sunday night into early Monday. Wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common at times through the period for the Central Coast, mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura and northwest LA County as well as the Antelope Valley (strongest in the mountains and deserts). Isolated gusts to 65 mph will be likely in the strongest periods of wind across western the Santa Ynez Range and adjacent western Santa Barbara County South Coast, primarily in the evening and overnight hours in conjunction with Sundowner wind enhancements and nocturnal drainage processes. Meanwhile, a warm and dry air mass will remain in place, with widespread 8 to 15 percent humidities across the interior today, and 12 to 20 percent on Monday. Poor overnight recoveries in the foothills are also expected. The warm and dry air will continue to descend into some coastal foothills on Sunday, including portions of southern Santa Barbara County. The combination of gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidities will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across southern Santa Barbara county through Sunday night, and all interior areas through Monday. There is an increased risk for fast-growing grass fires over much of the area, that could transition into wildfires where the fuel beds are most abundant and dry.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for zones 87-340-346-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Tuesday for zone 88.
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3am PDT Tuesday for zones 340-341-346-347-353-356-383.
High Wind Warning now in effect until 3am PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351-376>378-381.
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8pm PDT this evening for zones 349>352.
High Surf Advisory in effect until 7pm PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3pm PDT Monday for zones 376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 2am PDT Monday for zones 645-650.
Gale Warning in effect until 7pm PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676.

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox