Point Mugu to San Mateo Point CA including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Se. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 2 To 3 Ft And S 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
932am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023
Offshore flow in place today will bring continued dry conditions near seasonal normal temperatures. Gusty northerly winds will continue over southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor through tonight. A series of low pressure systems will drop into the region through the weekend and bring a cooling trend. There is a chance of light rain over the weekend. A warming trend in offshore flow is expected for the early portion of next week.
Short Term - Today through Friday
The latest water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging aloft breaking down across the region this morning. Southwest flow aloft is starting to develop this morning and some clouds are streaming over southern California. Closer to the surface, weak to moderate offshore flow remains in place across the area this morning, but the surface pattern will likely continue to gradually relax through Thursday morning. A warming trend will continue over a majority of the area today.
Southwest flow aloft should become more prevalent into Thursday. The few patches of stratus across the Port of Los Angeles and into the South Bay area of Los Angeles County this morning will likely become a little more expansive tonight as the flow pattern starts to reverse through the day and onshore flow develops. A cooling trend is expected through the short-term period and into the weekend. EPS temperature means drop steadily each day into Saturday.
The main problem for today will be how to handle the cooling across the region and the possibility of rain over the weekend. Temperatures look to be a tad too warm over the weekend given 500 mb height means dropping to 564 dam. The forecast likely will lean temperatures toward EPS ensemble means over the weekend, breaking away from NBM values. In regard to the possibility of rain, Probability of Precipitation look a little too dry given a vast majority of GEFS, CMC, and EPS ensemble members offering up light amounts for rain or drizzle. A closer look will be given to rain chances over the weekend, but a slight wetter approach should be expected.
***From Previous Discussion***
Friday will be like Thursday only super-sized. The trough will be sharper, the hgts lower, the onshore flow stronger and the marine layer stratus more extensive and slower to clear. All of this will add up to another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling. Most max temps will end up 5 to 10 degrees below normals.
Long Term - Saturday through Tuesday
All eyes on a more typical for late November rather than late September system. Ensemble means are in good agreement that the west coast trough will sharpen and then spawn a cut off low over Nrn CA. A sharp trough will sweep over SoCal during the day. The core of the low will near the area Saturday afternoon and then linger through Sunday bring enhanced instability to most of the area. While the dynamics and instability with this system are impressive, the moisture content is not (It came via an overland path). This will limit the rain chances and rain amounts (if any). Skies will be partly to most cloudy through the weekend and there will be a slight chance of light rain or drizzle just about everywhere. The best chances for measurable rain will be across the coastal slopes and foothills and then over the mtns during the afternoons. Rainfall amounts will spotty and its hard to see anything more than a quarter inch of rain falling out of this with most areas receiving zero to a tenth of an inch.
Not much doubt about the temperature forecast with clouds and 563 hgts. Max temps will fall 6 to 12 degrees. Cst/Vly temps will only be in the mid 60s to a smattering of lower 70s. Most max temps will end up 10 to 20 degrees below normal. There will be a little warming on Sunday as hgts rise a touch and there will probably be a little more sunshine.
This system will bring strong westerly winds aloft to much of the area. This upper level support only with decent low level W to E onshore flow could bring strong and gusty W to NW winds to the area Sat and Sunday afternoons, especially along the Central Coast to the VTU County coast, and into the mtns and deserts.
Mdl agreement both deterministic and ensemble deteriorates early next week as the models struggle with the evolution of the weekends upper low. Many solutions show the low moving away and then retrograding back. So not much confidence in the forecast esp the temperatures which will be pretty dependent on the hgts and flow direction and strength. A few mostly EC ensemble solutions show a weak Santa Ana developing.
High confidence in Gale Force winds continuing through at least early Thursday morning for the offshore waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island. There is a 60% chance of winds reforming Thursday night into Friday, especially for the outer waters north of Point Conception. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will affect nearshore Central Coast waters through Thursday night.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, moderate confidence in forecast. Winds across the western half of the channel will remain at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this afternoon and last through tonight. Moderate confidence in conditions staying mostly under SCA (Small Craft Advisory) elsewhere and through Thursday, although steep and choppy seas are expected.
A large northwest swell will push into the southern inner waters from Santa Barbara to Orange County this morning with heigheights between 5 and 8 feet common (5 feet being closet to shore and in the Santa Monica Bay). Little change likely through Thursday, then moderate confidence in lowering on Friday. Periods will be short with respect to the wave heigheights leading to steep waves, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.
Moderate confidence in improved conditions on Friday, but a low pressure system will form over the southwest United States on Saturday causing gusty west winds nearly everywhere. Strong winds are possible thought the entire Santa Barbara Channel, with a 30 percent chance of Gale Force Winds.
High confidence in high surf conditions continuing for west and especially northwest facing beaches through Thursday with surf 4 to 7 feet for Ventura County and 10 to 14 feet for the Central Coast. Strong and potentially deadly rip currents are likely during this time frame. Nuisance coastal flooding and minor beach erosion may also occur during high tides.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9pm PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zone 342.
Wind Advisory in effect until 5am PDT Thursday for zones 349-351-378-381.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Thursday for zones 645-650.
Gale Warning in effect until 3am PDT Thursday for zone 670.
Gale Warning in effect until 9am PDT Thursday for zones 673-676.