Marine Weather Net

East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ650 Forecast Issued: 908 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening.
Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds.
Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 12 Seconds.
Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Local Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Strongest Western Portion. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Strongest Western Portion. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1041pm PDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
18/1014 PM.

Areas of overnight low clouds and fog should clear by late Tuesday morning. In the afternoon, mountains showers are possible, with very slight chances for valleys. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the week before a weak system brings wind, light showers, and cooler weather for this weekend.

Short Term - Monday through Thursday
18/940 PM.

***UPDATE***

The upper low and associated vort max which brought scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to L.A. and VTU Counties this afternoon and earlier this evening was centered near the Salton Sea this evening and it was beginning to move east. Measurable rain was reported in many locations in Ventura County and in about 20-30% of L.A. County. However, due to the quick movement of the showers/storms and dry air at low levels, only a few locations reported more than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some small hail was reported in Bellflower, and there were many reports of lightning. Shower activity decreased quickly around sunset, and while isolated showers continued across Ventura County this evening, there should end or dissipate within the next hour or two. Otherwise, there were just some high clouds moving southwestward into L.A. County around the western periphery of the upper low.

The WRF shows a fairly good amount of moisture tonight, and suggests areas of low clouds and fog later tonight/Tuesday morning in coastal sections of L.A. County and possibly Ventura County, on the Central Coast, and in the Santa Ynez Valley. There could be some locally dense fog, mainly north of Point Conception, where the marine inversion is lower.

Low clouds should burn off in most areas by mid to late morning Tue. The upper low will move eastward Tue. While the WRF still shows good instability, especially across L.A. and VTU Counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, there will be somewhat less in the way of moisture wrapping into the region, and there does not look to be any mid or upper level feature (such as a strong vort) to be a trigger for any storms. Therefore, any showers/tstorms that might develop Tuesday afternoon should be mainly due to orographic lift of the northeasterly flow into the mountains. With N to NE flow through a deep layer, there is still a chance that some showers could drift into the foothills and some interior valley areas of VTU and L.A. Counties. However, expect less in the way of shower/tstorm activity Tue, especially west of the mountains. Increasing onshore flow may bring slight cooling on Tue, especially to the coastal plain, but this may be somewhat offset but height rises. Overall, max temps should be a few degrees above normal.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper low will likely continue to move east Tuesday night and Wed, finally losing its influence on the weather in the forecast area. Expect areas of night thru morning low clouds and fog in coastal areas Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Max temps may drop a bit Wednesday as onshore flow returns.

There will likely be areas of night/morning low clouds in coastal and some valley areas Wednesday night/Thu morning. The ridge will weaken and flatten with a large upper low moving toward the West Coast. Max temps will likely still be above normal Thu.

Long Term - Friday through Monday
18/115 PM.

The flow aloft will shift from zonal on Thu to southwesterly Fri. There may be low clouds again Thu night/Fri morning. Increasing mid and high level moisture pushing into the region will likely bring an increase in clouds to all areas Fri, along with some cooling, bringing temps close to normal levels.

Most ensemble members show measurable rain in most of the area this weekend, but there is uncertainty with respect to amounts and timing. In general the highest chances and rain amounts are in northwest SLO County where up to 0.5" could fall over the weekend. Most other areas will be between 0.1 and 0.25" except for the Antelope Valley which will likely remain rain free.

By Monday the system should be through the area and the CWA (County Warning Area) will see mostly clear skies and warming temps under the eastern Pacific ridge.

Marine
18/1014 PM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is a 60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday afternoon and evening, there is a 60 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds for the waters around Point Conception and the Channel Islands, and a 40% for the waters along the Central Coast. Chances will decrease to a 30% for all these waters Thurday and Friday.

Inside the southern California bight through Wednesday evening, there is a 20 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds each afternoon and evening with the highest chances for the western portions. Thursday and Friday conditions are expected to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level.

Widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) condition are expected for all waters starting as early as Saturday afternoon.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm to 9pm PDT Tuesday for zones 645-670-673.