East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
| Today...From Ventura To Eastern Santa Cruz Island And Southward, Ne Wind 20 To 30 Kt With With Gusts To 35 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Elsewhere, Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And W 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Tonight...From Ventura To Eastern Santa Cruz Island And Southward, Ne 10 To 15 Kt. Local Gusts To 20 Kt Late. Elsewhere, W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Fri...From Ventura To Eastern Santa Cruz Island And Southward, Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt With With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Elsewhere, Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Wind 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Sat...Light Winds, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 13 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Rain. |
| Sun...W Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt By Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun Night...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...W Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 539am PST Thu Jan 23 2025 Synopsis 23/414 AM. Strong offshore flow will continue across the area today with gusty Santa Ana winds and warm and dry conditions. A cooling trend will begin Friday and turn significantly cooler over the weekend as a cold storm system moves over the region. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected between Saturday and Sunday, then becoming showery into Monday. Brief heavy downpours with small hail are possible with any thunderstorms. A drying trend will develop between Tuesday and Wednesday. Short Term - Today through Saturday 23/537 AM. Clear skies are in place this morning across the region this morning as strong offshore flow remains in place. Offshore pressure gradients are tightening across the Southland this morning and this will increase Santa Ana winds as we move closer to daybreak and the late morning hours. Damaging wind gusts are largely absent right now, but the strongest thermal advection and low-level wind support has yet to develop this morning. KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradient should peak between 9 and 10 mb offshore later this morning as the thermal and wind support aloft arrives. High wind warnings across most of the Southland mountain areas and the Santa Clarita Valley and wind advisories for much of the remaining Southland coastal and valleys remain intact this morning and will remain in effect through 2 pm PST this afternoon. Yesterday's Hughes Fire and last night's Sepulveda Fire highlight how dry the air mass is and how susceptible the vegetation, or fuels, are at this point. Very critical fire weather conditions are expected to remain across the Southland today and into Friday as gusty northeast winds will combine with single digit humidities and 10-hour fuel sticks hovering near very critical low levels between 4 and 6 percent. Residents, especially those living in fire prone areas and communities, are advised to stay vigilant and be in a continual state of readiness. If following CAL FIRE's Ready, Set, Go! program, residents should already be in the Set stage and being ready to go at a moments notice. A warm weather pattern will continue across the region today. Today will be a tricky forecast as the model forecast output favor near record high temperatures across the coastal and valley areas today. With more mixing due to the winds, it makes for a tricky forecast as the increased could end mixing cooler air aloft. This could end up cutting into temperatures. Confidence is lower in the current high temperature forecast for today, but there is a 40 percent chance that record high temperatures could occur today at Oxnard, Camarillo, Burbank, and land Hills. In wind-sheltered locations, clear skies and less winds will allow for radiative cooling processes to be much more efficient tonight and into Friday morning. Frost advisories and freeze warning were added to the package beginning late tonight through Friday morning. A warm and dry pattern will linger into Friday, then a sharp reversal of the flow regime will take place between Friday night and Saturday. A cold upper-level trough of low pressure will dig into the region through Saturday night. Chances of rain could begin as early as Saturday, but it could be difficult to dislodge the dry air mass remaining. The pattern could start as sprinkles or very light showers. By Saturday night, the air mass should moisten enough to bring a likely to definite chance of rain across the region. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out a difluent flow pattern could develop as soon as Saturday evening with a vorticity maximum moves across the region. The strongest part of the wave will move to the south of the area, but there is still enough to concern to hoist a slight chance of thunderstorms for Saturday night. Brief heavy downpours will be possible, and if any of these showers, go over a recently burned area, there is a potential for flash flooding and mud and debris flows. Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday 23/529 AM. The colder air pocket with the most unstable air mass will dig down into the area through Sunday. A cold air mass will spread over the area. High temperatures will be almost 20 to 25 degrees cooler than today, and daytime high temperatures will struggle to make it into the 60s across the coast and valleys. The cold air mass aloft will likely steepen lapse rates and bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms again. As there is a lot of uncertainty with this system, small changes in the storm track can change the precipitation amounts and potential for convective storms. At this point, very high confidence exists in a cold air mass moving in with rain and mountain snow at some point between Saturday night and Sunday night. There is moderately high confidence in isolated thunderstorms at some point during the same period and moderate confidence in snow levels lowering as low as 2000 to 2500 feet. Residents living near the recent burn scars should make preparations to protect their homes, businesses, and properties due to the potential for flooding. Be prepared to evacuate if local authorities tell you to go. The loss of life and property with flooding after fires could be equally devastating to the actual fire itself. Given the uncertainty, a plan in place now will help you adjust more quickly to uncertain unfolding developments that could be in store with this storm. The most probable precipitation amounts will range from a quarter to a half inch for areas north of Point Conception to a half to three-quarters of an inch south of Point Conception. In the mountains, precipitation amounts between one half and one inch are expected with local amounts to up to two inches across the south- facing slopes of the San Gabriel mountains. While the majority of the storms will likely feature a beneficial rain with peak rainfall rates between 0.10 and 0.20 inch per hour, the addition of thunderstorms will potentially increase rainfall rates up to 0.50 inch per hour. A winter storm watch will likely be needed as we get a better idea about more exact snow totals and potential impacts within the next 24 hours or so. Early estimates would indicate 4 to 8 inches of snowfall above 5000 feet with amounts up to 12 to 16 inches at the resort level. Due to the uncertainty with the snow levels, there is a potential for snow or graupel affecting the Interstate 5 and Highway 14 corridors over the weekend. There is a moderate chance of accumulating occurring across the foothills areas of the Antelope Valley, such as Valyermo, Lake Hughes, and Lake Los Angeles between Sunday and Monday. A little less certain is snow on the coastal foothills and the Antelope Valley, but it certainly is in the potential range of outcomes. Stay tuned as travel impacts could develop over the weekend. As the storm clears out on Monday night and into Tuesday, there is a moderate chance of cold air mass being left in its wake. A widespread frost and freeze event could develop with frost advisories being needed for the colder Los Angeles County valleys, the Ventura County coast and valleys, and the Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo coastal areas. Tuesday morning could end up being the coldest morning for the coastal and valley areas. Marine 23/359 AM. In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NE winds are expected (60% chance) in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru early this afternoon, mainly in northern and eastern sections. There is a 30-40% chance that winds will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. From tonight thru Fri, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas are likely (60% chance) Sat thru Sun. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds Fri night thru Sat night. In the Inner Waters off the Central Coast, there is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas Sat/Sat night. Otherwise. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Sunday night. For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception: From Ventura/Oxnard to Malibu and out to Anacapa and E Santa Cruz Island, Gale force winds are likely (60% chance) through early afternoon, but there is a 40% chance that winds will remain at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Winds will diminish this afternoon. There is a 20% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds tonight and early Fri. Thru the San Pedro Channel S to off the coast of Orange County, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are likely (60% chance) thru early this afternoon, but there is a 40% chance that winds will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Winds will drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level this afternoon. Elsewhere, there is a 20% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds this morning. After Fri morning, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are not expected thru Sunday night. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 2pm PST this afternoon for zones 88-369-375-376-378>380. Frost Advisory in effect from 10pm this evening to 9am PST Friday for zones 340-341-349-350. Freeze Warning in effect from 10pm this evening to 9am PST Friday for zones 346-347-357-383. Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2pm PST this afternoon for zones 354-355-358-362-370>372-374-377. Red Flag Warning in effect until 10am PST Friday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zones 650-655. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zone 676. |
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