Marine Weather Net

East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast


5 - 10


15 - 20


10 - 15


10 - 20

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ650 Forecast Issued: 907 AM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Patchy Drizzle. A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain.
Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 7 Seconds, Building To 4 To 6 Ft At 7 Seconds After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
942am PDT Fri September 29 2023

29/327 AM.

Much cooler weather is expected through the weekend with a chance of light rain Saturday into Sunday as an unseasonably cold upper low moves through the area. There will be plenty of clouds west of the mountains through Sunday with some clearing inland this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. A warming trend will begin Monday with high temperatures rising to above normal levels by the middle of next week.

Short Term - Today through Sunday
29/436 AM.

Low were widespread in all coastal and valley areas south of Point Conception, and have pushed into the lower coastal slopes as well. North of Point Conception, low clouds and locally dense fog have pushed into southern portions of the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez Valley. There could be some drizzle this morning, especially in the valleys and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Pressure gradients between KLAX and KDAG were trending onshore. Expect clearing to be slow south of Point Conception, In fact, clouds may linger at the beaches from KSBA southward through KLAX most of the day, and possibly across other portions of the coastal plain as well. Max temps will be down several degrees in most areas today, especially away from the immediate coast where a lot of cooling already occurred on Thu.

The trough along the West Coast will sharpen and deepen tonight as strong short wave energy drops southward down the coast. It will evolve into a closed upper low just northeast of the Bay Area by daybreak Saturday, then will drop south southeastward through the state on Sat. Heigheights will continue to fall through Sat. The marine layer will continue to deepen tonight, and will likely become more of a deep moist layer Sat.

Strongly cyclonic flow through the atmosphere, and good positive vorticity advection will cause lift to increase through the moist layer tonight and Sat. Precipitable water values will increase to about 1 inch or slightly higher late tonight/Sat, so there will be some moisture to work with. There will be an increasing chance of drizzle or light rain late tonight, then there is a good chance of light rain in most areas on Sat. Rain is actually likely in the foothills and lower mountains of L.A. and VTU Counties on Sat. Skies should be cloudy just about everywhere tonight and Sat, and little if any clearing is expected. It will be very chilly for the last day of September in southern California, with max temps 10 to 20 degrees below normal in most areas. Gusty southwest to west winds will affect the Antelope Valley and through the I-14 Corridor as well, possibly requiring advisories.

One interesting thing to note for Sat is that lapse rates will become fairly steep, and lifted index values will generally be negative across a good portion of the region Sat. Adding a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast for Sat is certainly a consideration. Snow levels will could lower to as low as 7500 feet late Sat and Sat night, and there could be a dusting of snow at the highest mountain locations. Rainfall totals through Sat evening are expected to be mostly one quarter inch or less, though totals of one half inch are possibly across the coastal slopes of the San Gabriel mountains, and the adjacent portions of the San Gabriel Valley.

The upper low will begin to move east of the region Sat night and Sun, but another strong vort dropping southward on its western periphery will try to keep it from moving too far to the east with a sharp trough lingering across the region Sun. There will likely be a lot of clouds Sat night and Sun, with a continued chance of light rain at times, especially across L.A. County. However, that forecast is tricky, because there will be a bit less in the way of moisture, the flow will turn more northerly, and cooling should wipe away any remaining semblance of an inversion (which will in all likelihood by gone by then). At this point, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, a slight chance of rain, and continued very cool weather across the region, with little or no warming expected.

Long Term - Monday through Thursday
29/428 AM.

The trough will move east of the region Sunday night and Monday, and a ridge will begin to build into the West Coast. Expect mostly clear skies Sunday night/Monday except for possibly some night through morning stratus on the Central Coast. Max temps will jump up several degrees in most areas on Mon. The ridge will continue to amplify Tuesday and Wednesday while shifting slowly eastward. Expect significant warming in most areas both Tuesday and Wed, with temps rising to above normal level, then some slight additional warming is likely on Thu as heigheights peak. If some offshore flow develops during mid week, that will only bolster the warming west of the mountains, and temps approaching 100 degrees are not out of the question in some lower valley areas.

29/941 AM.

No change in the marine forecast for the morning update.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will occur in the outer waters through tonight, with the possibilty for a lull in winds this morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds and seas will affect nearshore Central Coast waters this afternoon through evening.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind gusts this afternoon and evening confined to the extreme western portion of the channel, although steep and choppy seas are expected.

Moderate confidence in Northwest swell heigheights from Santa Barbara to Orange County lowering below 10 feet by this evening, before having a brief increase again Saturday afternoon and evening.

A low pressure system will move over the southwest United States on Saturday causing gusty west winds nearly everywhere. Saturday SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are possible throughout the entire waters, with a 20-30 percent chance of Gale Force Winds.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 3 am PDT Saturday for zone 645.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676.