East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Western Portion, Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Local Gusts To 25 Kt Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Eastern Portion, Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds, Building To 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 8 Seconds.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
434pm PST Monday Nov 30 2020
updated aviation discussion
Mostly clear skies expected through the week, with minimal coastal clouds and fog. Near to just above normal temperatures will continue. Periods of gusty offshore flow will dominate through the weekend, strongest Thursday and Friday with potentially critical fire weather.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...30/215 PM.
A small but cold upper level trough, currently scooting trough Washington State, will create a tight North to south pressure gradient at the surface tonight. This will lead to gusty north to northeast winds over the I-5 Corridor, Santa Barbara County (including Montecito) and the coastal hills of SLO County. Wind Advisories remain in effect for the windiest locations. That trough will drop into Colorado by Tuesday afternoon, shifting the surface pattern to favor northeasterly winds over LA and Ventura Counties as well as the Central Coast. There is a chance for low-end Wind Advisories over the mountains and valleys, but the scales seem tilted toward not needing one. The northeast flow will then strengthen Tuesday Night into Wednesday as the surface pressure gradients strengthen (around -6.0 mb LAX- DAG). Despite the lack of upper level support, low-end Wind Advisories will probably be needed for the valleys and mountains of LA and Ventura Counties. The persistent offshore flow should keep low clouds and fog mostly at bay, but if any patches do form visibility will be very poor.
The previously discussed upper level trough will break off from the prevailing jetstream later on Wednesday, then spin and wobble around like an uncontrolled top. As they often due with such cut-off lows, the computer projections continue to vary a lot between each other and between each run. Several project the low following a rare path back to the west and into Arizona. Others spin the low off and into Missouri. If you squint at the solutions, you see a consistent story of some sort of significant offshore flow sometime from Wednesday night through the end of the week. When you look closer however, it is hard to glean much in terms of more precise timing and strengthen. With that said, the potential exists for moderate to strong winds, especially if the low tracks to the west...and Thursday and Friday is the most probable time period for the strongest winds. We can hope for more consistency in the projections as we get closer to the event, but cannot expect much clarity with such a pattern. At least there is some certainity in generally clear skies (except for some high clouds on Thursday) and temperatures holding at 5-10 degrees above normal.
Long Term - Friday through Monday
Most of the details for Friday are covered in the previous section, with the potential for moderate to strong offshore flow continuing. The upper level pattern remains rather chaotic over the weekend, but there is a general idea of an upper level low to our south and a narrow high nosing in to our north. This pattern favors continued dry offshore flow, albeit not as strong as what could happen Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will largely be dependent on where the low to the south ends up. The deeper and closer to us it is, the cooler it will be but even the most extreme solutions keep temperatures right around normal.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday evening, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected. For Wednesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels although there is a 50% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level northeast winds across PZZ676 Wednesday night and Thursday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds each afternoon and evening today and Tuesday. For Wednesday through Friday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, low confidence in current forecast, mainly due to timing issues. Through tonight, winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across most areas except for a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Tuesday, there is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level northeast winds south of Ventura. For Wednesday through Friday, there is a still a 60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level northeast winds from Ventura southward, but some differences still remain in the various models.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3am PST Tuesday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 9pm this evening to 10am PST Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon for zones 244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).
Potentially strong and long lasting offshore winds and dry conditions would lead to critical fire weather conditions and wind damage Thursday into the weekend. High surf or strong rip currents will create hazardous ocean conditions at most beaches Thursday into Saturday. Near freezing conditions over coastal Santa barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties may lead to plant damage this weekend.