East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
| Today...From Ventura To Point Mugu, Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming 5 To 15 Kt Nw This Afternoon. Western Portion, Light Winds Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Eastern Portion, Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Western Portion, Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Wed...Eastern Portion, Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Western Portion, Light Winds Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Western Portion, Nw Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Eastern Portion, Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 6 Ft At 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Fri...Light Winds. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...W Wind 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 19 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Sat...Light Winds. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 18 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
| Sat Night...Light Winds. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 17 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1045am PDT Tuesday Oct 28 2025 Updated Fire and Aviation Discussions Synopsis 27/1149 PM. The first Santa Ana Wind event of the season is expected today and Wednesday. Very warm temperatures across the coasts and valleys, gusty winds across the typical wind prone corridors and mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, and critical fire weather conditions across portions of interior Los Angeles and Ventura Counties can be expected. Late this week through the weekend, temperatures will remain above normal with no rain chances in the foreseeable future. Short Term - Today through Thursday 28/904 AM. ***UPDATE*** The Santa Ana Winds are developing across the typical corridor in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties (and across the Santa Lucias in San Luis Obispo County). Gusts are generally between 20 and 40 mph across higher terrain, with a few local areas exceeding that. The current LAX-DAG surface pressure gradient is currently -5.8 mb offshore, and is likely to continue to strengthen over the next couple hours, topping out slightly stronger than forecast. Effects of the winds can be felt across much the the region, even in areas with minimal winds. 24 hour trends in temperatures and relative humidity show the dramatic warming and drying trend this morning. Overall forecast is on track, with no changes to the current hazards products (Heat Advisories, Red Flag Warnings, and Wind Advisories). ***From Previous Discussion*** Today is the first day for the first Santa Ana event of the season (and tomorrow being the second day), with wind, increasing heat, and dry air/fire weather conditions being the concern for today and Wednesday. Please make sure to check in on those vulnerable to heat, drink plenty of hydrating fluids, and be careful of anything that might spark a fire. Wind gusts are currently reporting around 25-40 mph, but expected to continue to increase to 35-50 mph across the Santa Ana wind Corridor (from Santa Clarita Valley to Point Mugu) as the morning continues. Wind advisories are currently in effect for these areas, and continue until 4 pm this evening. Another round of advisories may be needed tonight into Wednesday as well. As for the Central Coast, gusty winds will continue across the San Luis Obispo coasts and coastal mountains, with gusts of 45-50mph and isolated gusts up to 60 mph (looking at you, Mt. Lowe) through this morning. While wind advisories are in effect for these locations through 11am this morning, winds will be weaker Wednesday, and currently not anticipating any wind advisories for Wednesday. Please see NPWLOX for more information on the wind advisories. Temperatures, however, are already coming in around 70 degrees where the strongest wind gusts are (and it is only 3AM). In other words, the high temperature forecast is on track, with temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s today and Wednesday (10-15 degrees above normal), which is why widespread heat advisories go in effect at 10am across the L.A./Ventura coastal valleys, mountains, and beaches for today and Wednesday. Please see NPWLOX for more information on the heat advisories. As for fire weather concerns, humidities are already dropping into the high teens to 30 percent range where the Santa Ana wind gusts are strongest. These humidities are expected to decrease further and bring widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions these next two days, and critical fire weather conditions (please refer to the fire weather discussion and RFWLOX for more details) to the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, Santa Susana Mountains, and the southeastern Ventura valleys. Residents in or near theses areas are advised to check for multiple ways to recieve weather and emergency alerts and make preparations to evacuate in an emergency wildfire situation. As for why the Santa Ana Winds are occuring, high pressure is building in to the east, while low pressure is just to the west of Southwest California. The combination of the differences in pressure is causing the offshore pressure gradients to strengthen, with LAX to DAG reporting -3 mb, and LAX to BFL -6.1 at this time. The east offshore gradient (LAX-DAG) is expected to further strengthen this morning, thus why the winds are not focused over the western San Fernando Valley, and more focused from Santa Clarita to Point Mugu in Ventura County. Despite this, enough dry air and downsloping winds will combine to cause a widespread warm up in temperatures. The Santa Ana winds will keep marine layer clouds at bay for the next few days, with some low clouds and fog likely to return Thursday morning. Heat will also let up somewhat on Thursday, through temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 80s common. Long Term - Friday through Monday 28/318 AM. A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the area starting Thursday through the weekend, keeping temperatures above normal for this time of year. However, offshore gradients will start to weaken on Thursday and Friday, which will allow for a cooling trend, especially for areas near the coasts. As the ridge starts to strengthen over the weekend, a bump up in temperatures will be possible, especially for interior areas such as the Antelope Valley. Despite the bump up in temperatures, heat products are not anticipated at this time. Looking out past the 7-day forecast, any hope for a healthy rain seems minimal, with only the EC deterministic model and a few EC members hinting at some drizzle to light rain for the Central Coast late next week. However, as always, light rain hinted in the models that far out should be taken with a grain of salt. Marine 28/807 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep, choppy seas for the nearshore waters north of Point Sal through late this morning. NE winds are expected for the nearshore waters this morning and Wednesday morning from Ventura to Santa Monica. Moderate confidence winds will peak in the 15-20 knot range, but there is a 25% chance that winds cross over into SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria in terms of speed and duration. The strongest winds should occur this morning and be close to shore. NW winds and seas will likely return to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island by Thursday. Patches of dense fog will likely form Thursday night into Friday. Fire Weather 28/1012 AM. KEY MESSAGES: Despite recent rains, most vegetation/fuel types remain dormant and critically dry. With the gusty Santa Ana winds and very dry airmass, this environment is favorable to rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior with any new fire starts. While this risk exists for most of southwest California, the risk is highest where the winds will be strongest and longest lasting. Those areas are in a Red Flag Warnings and include the Western San Gabriel Mountains, Santa Susana Mountains, and southeast Ventura Valleys. All those areas are in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The general public need to use extreme caution with anything that can spark a fire. Residents in high risk fire areas, especially those in the Red Flag Warning, need to stay on alert and extra aware of their surroundings in case a new fire starts. Check for multiple ways to receive weather and emergency alerts and review your personal evacuation plans in case you are called to do so. DETAILS: Northeast to east (Santa Ana) winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will be common over wind prone areas of Los Angeles, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo Counties - including coastal areas. The windiest areas will see 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, with isolated 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph likely. Those windiest areas include the San Gabriel Mountains, the Santa Susana Mountains, the Santa Clarita Valley, Ventura Valleys and the Santa Monica Mountains. The strongest winds are expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning. By Thursday, the northeast winds will be much weaker and very localized. Minimum Humidities of 5 to 15 percent will be common over most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through Thursday, with Wednesday being the driest. Overnight recoveries will be poor over the breezier valleys and hills, likely staying below 20 percent in large pockets. For San Luis Obispo County, humidities will generally stay above 15 percent over the windiest areas. Daytime temperatures will approach records, with highs between 85 and 95 common including coastal areas. Live Fuel Moisture values are still in the 65 to 75 percent range across much of the area, with only a shallow grass crop forming in many areas after recent rains. Dead fuel moistures are very dry, including the 10 hour stick readings which are already generally under 8 percent. Most of southwest California will see elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday, with the areas seeing the winds likely seeing a few hours of Red Flag (critical) conditions. The areas with the best combination of the strongest winds and driest air will likely see 6 hours or more of critical conditions which warrants a Red Flag Warning. Those areas include the western San Gabriel Mountains, Santa Susana Mountains, and the southeast Ventura Valleys especially around the Highway 118 corridor. These warnings go through 6pm Wednesday. At this point, we do not expect the need to extend or expand these warnings. The winds will quickly turn onshore on Friday with a likely return of the marine layer. This will bring rapid cooling and moistening, with minimal fire weather risks. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4pm PDT this afternoon for zones 88-355-358-374-375-378-379. Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11am PDT this morning for zones 340>342-345. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm PDT Wednesday for zones 354-355-358-362-366>375-548. Red Flag Warning in effect until 6pm PDT Wednesday for zones 374-375-379. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11am PDT this morning for zone 645. https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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