East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 11 Seconds.
|Wed...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming S 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds.
|Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog.
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 11 Seconds.
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 11 Seconds.
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 6 To 8 Ft.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
259pm PST Tuesday Feb 27 2024
Generally dry weather with seasonal temperatures are expected through Thursday. A cold storm system originating from the Gulf of Alaska is expected to move into the area Friday and persist into the weekend with an extended period of rain and mountain snow expected.
Short Term - Today through Friday
Generally quiet is on tap through Thursday with oscillating marine influence for some coastal and valleys areas today with reduced coverage into Wednesday thanks to an offshore push. This offshore push has trended weak such that temperatures are now expected to peak closer to normal. Falling 500 mb heigheights and increasing onshore flow will enable marine influence, associated cloud cover and patchy drizzle to extend well into the mountains and cover much of the area into Thursday. This will knock 5 to 10 degrees off of daytime highs Thursday.
Our Friday-Saturday storm has continued to trend drier, especially for southern areas (Los Angeles and Ventura Counties). We may have drizzle or light showers as early as Thursday, but more widespread light to occasionally moderate rain beginning is earnest Thursday night or Friday and continuing through at least Saturday. Snow levels will generally be 5,5000-6,500 feet through Friday evening. Gusty southwest winds of 30 to 50 mph, strongest across the mountains, could lead to blowing and drifting of snow by Friday evening.
Long Term - Saturday through Tuesday
Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue through Saturday or Saturday night with isolated shower activity possibly lingering into Sunday. Gusty southwest winds 30 to 50 mph will shift northwest late Saturday and especially into Sunday, again strongest across the mountains and also extending into southwest Santa Barbara County.
The most likely storm total rain has been reduced fairly significantly over the last 24 hours and are now expecting 0.25 to 1 inch (highest end of the range likely focused across the Central Coast), except 1-2 inches west to southwest facing mountain slopes. We have fairly high confidence in these totals for this far ahead of the storm. Generally light rain rates and moderate amounts at best should limit impacts although given recent rainfall cannot rule out some minor flood issues focused across the Central Coast.
Eight to sixteen inches of snow are possible above 7,000 feet with four to eight inches for elevations of 5,500 to 7,000 feet. One to three inches are possible as low as around 4,500 feet with most of any snow at lower elevations falling Saturday evening into Saturday night when snow levels. Blowing and drifting of snow may make travel quite hazardous, especially above 5,000-6,000 feet.
There is a 30-40 percent chance that another storm pushes into the region by Tuesday, although the remainder of guidance provides a break from the active weather until at least mid-week.
For the Outer Waters, fairly high confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds in the northern zone (PZZ670) will continue to spread into the central zone (PZZ673), then into the southern zone (PZZ676) this afternoon. Seas will get close to 10 ft in the northern two zones. Winds and seas should drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late tonight, but there is a 30% chance they could continue across PZZ670/673 into Wed. From late Wednesday thru Thu night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for all of the Outer Waters. For Fri thru Sat, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas are expected, and there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds -- from the S and SW Fri thru early Sat, then shifting to W during Sat.
For the Inner Waters N of Pt Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels Wednesday thru Thu night. For Fri thru Sat, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas are expected, and there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds -- from the S or SW Fri thru early Sat, then shifting to W.
For the Inner Waters S of Pt Conception, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds this afternoon thru late tonight. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Fri. There is a 40-60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds and seas Sat, highest in the SBA Channel.
Surf heigheights will rapidly increase late Friday and remain high throughout the weekend. This will be in response to large northwesterly swell of 10-15-foot seas with 12-14-second wave periods. The wave front is expected to overspread the coastal waters as early as Friday afternoon. This will likely (60-80% chance) necessitate High Surf Advisories from late Friday through the weekend for sections of the coast most susceptible to west-northwesterly to northwesterly wave energy, such as the Central Coast and Ventura County coast.
Rough seas will likely be the combination of longer-period swell, in addition to shorter-period wind waves resulting from breezy northwest winds. These factors will create dangerous conditions at area beaches, including a high rip-current risk. While the steep wind waves will contribute to dangerous and chaotic seas, they will also disrupt energy from longer-period swell. This will cause the coastal-flooding potential to be limited. Also, astronomical high tides will be modest, around 5 feet, which will reduce the risk for coastal flooding. Nevertheless, very minor coastal flooding along the immediately coastline cannot be ruled out at times of overnight high tide (Midnight-2AM) Friday night and Saturday night. This would primarily be for beaches most susceptible to west-northwesterly to northwesterly wave energy, such as portions of the Morro Bay and Ventura Pier areas.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Wednesday for zones 650-670-673-676.