East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
10 - 15
20 - 25
10 - 15
15 - 25
10 - 15
10 - 15
|Today...Western Portion, Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Eastern Portion, Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon In The Afternoon. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 7 Seconds, Building To 7 To 10 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt In The Evening, Becoming N 15 To 20 With Local Gusts To 25 Kt Late. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...W To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt Late Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Mon...W To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1124am PDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Updated Aviation Discussion
Dry conditions are expected through Monday with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the mountains as well as some coast and valley areas through at least Sunday. Another storm is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with more rain and mountain snow. Showers may continue into Thursday. Dry and cool conditions are expected Friday.
Short Term - Today through Monday
Very minimal weather concerns in the short term except for gusty north-northwest winds across many areas from last night that will linger today and then regenerate tonight. Wind gusts range from 35-50 mph in the mountains and typical canyons this morning, with a peak gust to about 72 mph in the Montecito Hills before sunrise due to mountain wave turbulence. Expect very similar winds to redevelop tonight with a few gusts over 60 mph in the eastern Santa Ynez Range again. After a frosty start in some colder valley locations, temperatures will remain 5-9 degrees below normal for the afternoon highs. There are patches of clouds on a few north mountain slopes and the interior SLO County areas as a result of the northerly flow. Most coastal and downslope valley regions remain cloud-free.
Getting a look at 12Z model data which continues to indicate another storm system approaching the Central Coast on Tuesday. Timing and strength of this system remain rather uncertain, so that will be the focus in upcoming days as we try to fine-tune any potential impacts for southwest CA. WPC has already included our region in a marginal to slight risk for the day4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, however, the atmospheric river support looks weak at this point. Depending on the track of the upper low, Wednesday could be another convective day across the region.
***From Previous Discussion***
Clear skies covered the forecast area early this morning. It is quite chilly early this morning and areas of frost are likely before sunrise over portions of the interior vlys of SLO/SBA Counties. Mostly sunny skies with just a few hi clouds at times will prevail across the region today. Temps will continue to several degrees below normal across the region with highs for many areas in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Early this morning, gusty NW to N winds affected much of the higher mtns, western Antelope Valley foothills, western San Fernando Vly, Santa Susana Mtns, eastern Santa Monica Mtns, Santa Ynez Mtns and SBA County S coast. The highest gust has been 74 mph at Montecito Hills RAWS just after midnight, but this was an isolated Warning-level gust. The gusty winds are forecast to continue into this morning then should decrease some this afternoon before increasing again tonight. Northerly gradients will remain rather strong thru the period, with the NAM forecasting LAX-BFL gradients of -5.1 mb at 12Z this morning, and around -4.5 mb at 12Z Sunday morning. Wind Advisories will continue for these areas thru 9am Sunday morning.
A broad NW flow aloft will prevail across the forecast area through Monday morning then turn more westerly Monday afternoon. H5 heigheights will be around 558-562 dam today then increase slightly to 559-563 dam on Sunday and to 565-567 dam for Mon.
Mostly clear skies will prevail across the forecast area tonight through Monday. Temps across the region will continue on the cool side with highs for many areas in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be quite chilly for late March and some of the interior vlys of SLO/SBA Counties will likely have areas of frost and some local freezing conditions later tonight into early Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Isolated frost pockets cannot be ruled out for sheltered valleys of VTU County as well.
Advisory level NW to N winds are expected again Sunday night into Monday morning for many of the same areas that are experiencing the gusty winds this morning thanks to continued strong northerly gradients (NAM forecast LAX-BFL -5.3 mb 12Z Mon). Current Wind Advisories may need to be extended at some point over the weekend.
Long Term - Tuesday through Friday
The EC and GFS (Global Forecast System) deterministic and mean ensembles are showing differences in the timing of the Tue-Wednesday storm system, with the EC quite a bit slower and wetter than the GFS. The EC even lingers precipitation over the forecast area into Thu, while the GFS largely ends the precipitation Wednesday night. The EC also brings the upper low associated with this cold system over the forecast area about 12 hours later compared to the GFS (Thu morning for EC vs. Wednesday night for the GFS). Forecast confidence is marginal in regard to the timing and movement of the storm system. For now, went with the NBM for the timing of this system and for snow levels.
It now looks like precipitation will move into SLO/SBA Counties Tuesday morning then spread S thru VTU/L.A. Counties Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Rain and mtn snow will continue across the region Tue night, with a good chance of rain and mtn snow showers Wed. The chances of rain and mtn snow showers should taper off Wednesday night into Thu. Depending on the timing of the upper level low moving over the region, there could be a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night or Thu. In addition, gusty southerly winds should affect the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Needless to say, temperatures will be well below normal Tuesday thru Thu.
Early estimates of rainfall Tuesday thru Wednesday are for 0.50 inch to 1.00 inch to fall across much of the region, with the higher amounts close to 2.00 inches across the NW Santa Lucia Mtns. There is also the potential for 5 to 10 inches of snow above about 4000 to 5000 feet. Any additional rainfall Wednesday night and Thu will be on the light side, probably 0.15 inch or less.
Dry and cool weather will prevail across the region Thu night and Fri, along with decreasing clouds.
In the Outer Waters, Gale force winds are expected through late tonight. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will follow the gales through late Sunday night, though there is a 30% chance of gales Sunday afternoon/evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level S-SW winds are likely Tuesday, with the highest chances in the Northern Outer waters. On Wed, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds are likely, especially for the Southern Outer waters.
In the inner water N of Pt Sal, seas are currently approaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level. Winds will pick up to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level this afternoon and evening and there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds. Winds will likely drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels briefly on Sunday morning, but SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas will continue. Conditions are expected to fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level Sunday evening/night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level SW winds are likely into Tuesday night, with seas likely continuing at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels into Wednesday.
In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W-NW winds are expected in western portions through late tonight, with a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds. In eastern portions, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds are expected this afternoon/evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds are likely across the entire Channel Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Across the inner waters S of Pt Sal, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W-NW winds are expected in western portions though late tonight. In eastern portions, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W-NW winds are likely Sunday afternoon/evening especially in western sections. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Large swell in the coastal waters will bring high surf 8 to 12 feet on Central Coast beaches today thru Sun. Due to the northwesterly direction of the swell, and the fact that its fairly short period will not allow for much refraction of its energy around Point Conception. only elevated surf is expected on west facing beaches south of Point Conception. However, there will be a high risk of rip currents on most beaches today thru Sun.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9am PDT Sunday for zones 88-349>353-370-372-375>379-381-383.
High Surf Advisory in effect until 3pm PDT Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zone 645.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Sunday for zones 650-655.
Gale Warning in effect until 3am PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676.