Marine Weather Net

East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

VARIABLE
< 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ650 Forecast Issued: 208 PM PDT Sun Jul 03 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Tonight...Western Portion, W Winds 20 To 25 Kt Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Eastern Portion, W Winds 10 To 15 Kt Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less After Midnight. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 7 Seconds.
Mon...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Mon Night...Western Portion, W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Eastern Portion, W Winds 10 To 15 Kt Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 4 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Tue...Western Portion, W Winds 10 To 15 Kt Becoming 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Eastern Portion, Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Tue Night...Western Portion, W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Eastern Portion, W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Wed...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Wed Night...Western Portion, W Winds 20 To 25 Kt Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Eastern Portion, W Winds 15 To 20 Kt Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
146pm PDT Sunday July 3 2022

Synopsis
03/142 AM.

A trough will support night to morning low clouds and fog for many areas west of the mountains through mid week. A strong ridge will squash the marine layer with mostly sunny skies prevailing by next weekend. A gradual warming trend is expected for much of the week with an extended period of heat possible by next weekend.

Short Term - Today through Wednesday
...03/144 PM.

Overall, 12Z models are in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, trough will linger over the West Coast through Wednesday. Near the surface, moderate onshore flow will prevail to the east with some northerly flow in the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor).

Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be winds. High resolution models indicate continued moderate northerly offshore gradients through monday night. Based on what happened last evening, high confidence in advisory-level winds across the western half of the Santa Ynez Range tonight and have issued a WIND ADVISORY for these areas through 600am Monday. There will also be some gusty northerly winds tonight through the I-5 Corridor, but any advisory-level winds will be much more localized. For Monday night, it looks like a repeat of the advisory-level Sundowners and sub-advisory north winds across the I-5 Corridor. Other than the north winds, no significant wind issues are expected. The moderate onshore gradients to the east will generate the typical gusty southwest winds each afternoon and evening across interior sections, but speeds will remain below advisory levels.

Other than winds, the forecast is pretty straightforward through Wednesday. With the upper trough overhead and continued onshore gradients, marine inversion will remain deep enough for stratus and fog to push into the coastal valleys each night with a good dissipation each late morning and afternoon. Temperatures through Wednesday will exhibit a very slight warming trend for most areas, but will remain near seasonal normals.

Long Term - Thursday through Sunday
03/145 PM.

For the extended, deterministic and ensemble models remain on the same synoptic page. Main feature of concern is strong upper level high pressure that builds over the desert Southwest. Current guidance indicate this ridge peaks on Friday/Saturday then weakens somewhat on Sunday.

Forecast-wise, the main issue for our area will be temperatures. With rising thicknesses/H5 heigheights and decreased marine influence, temperatures will be on the upswing through Saturday with some slight cooling on Sunday. Friday/Saturday will be the warmest days. Analysis of local TEMP STUDY database indicates high temperatures in between the current NBM numbers and inherited forecast. So, will tweak temperatures across the area to the TEMP STUDY numbers. That being said, highs on Saturday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s across the coast to the 90s to low 100s across the valleys and deserts. Quick glance at Heat Risk guidance does not indicate much concern for any non-routine heat products for Friday or Saturday.

Other than the temperatures, do not anticipate any significant issues. There will continue to be some gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon/evening across interior sections and some weak Sundowners across the Santa Ynez Range each night, but speeds should generally remain below advisory levels. With the rising H5 heights, the marine inversion will be squashed and stratus coverage will be quite limited by the weekend. Additionally, models continue to back off from any monsoon intrusion and forecast will remain clear and dry (except for whatever coastal stratus/fog develops).

Marine
03/145 PM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected thru at least late tonight. There may be a lull in the winds to below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level late tonight/Monday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are then likely most of the time Monday afternoon thru Thu across the southern two zones (PZZ673/676). In the northern zone, (PZZ670), winds may be just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday thru Wednesday morning, then SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are likely Wednesday afternoon thru Fri.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected this afternoon and evening, then conds should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Wed. There is then a 30%-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds at times Thu and Fri, mainly afternoon/evening hours.

In the SBA Channel, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are likely in western portions of the Channel as well as in and around the northern Channel Islands during this afternoon and evening, then there will be a 30%-40% chance each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Thu.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds across far western portions of the zone during the late afternoon/evening hours this afternoon thru Wed, especially from near Anacapa Island to the northwest of Catalina Island.

The gusty winds will generate short-period, choppy seas that will likely be dangerous to mariners through the entire holiday weekend and into the middle of the week.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6pm this evening to 6am PDT Monday for zones 349-351.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for zone 645.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zones 650-670.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676.