East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft Late In The Evening, Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 6 Seconds.|
|Thu...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W 10 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 2 Ft At 6 Seconds.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 Ft At 6 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 6 Seconds.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 Ft At 7 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. W Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
834pm PDT Wednesday Jun 23 2021
Onshore flow will continue a cooling trend into Thursday, then high pressure aloft to the north will gradually build into southern California through the weekend. A significant warming trend is forecast to develop early next week, especially for inland areas.
.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...23/833 PM.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area, except for some stratus along the Central Coast. Evening sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth from 1900 feet across the Central Coast to around 900 feet across the LAX Basin.
For the immediate short term, only concern will be the extent of the marine layer stratus. With inversion in place and continued onshore flow, stratus/fog should redevelop overnight across the coastal plain and locally across the coastal valleys. Also, will likely be some stratus/fog late tonight in the Salinas River Valley. Other than any potential stratus, skies should remain clear overnight across the area.
Overall, current forecast looks to have good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are planned at this time.
***From Previous Discussion***
Convective activity has decreased this afternoon as the moisture axis shifts east. Eastern LA County still on the far western periphery of the instability but decreasing moisture means that chances look too low now to keep thunderstorms in the forecast so will remove that from the rest of the afternoon forecast.
Beyond that, fairly quiet weather through Friday with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Marine layer stratus coverage expected to increase tonight south of Pt Conception as the monsoon moisture shifts east. Forecast soundings suggest a marine layer depth of around 1500' area-wide, suggesting at least some low clouds pushing into the coastal valleys overnight. That combined with increasing onshore flow tomorrow should lead to slightly cooler temperatures most areas.
Gusty Sundowner winds expected to return to southern Santa Barbara County by Thursday evening, then getting a little stronger Friday evening, possibly near advisory levels. This should be enough to push the marine layer away from the coast there and possibly Ventura County as well.
A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into Saturday as a large dome of high pressure develops over the Pac NW. Northern areas will see more warming Friday, then southern areas will see it more Saturday as onshore gradients weaken. Far interior areas will see temperatures in the triple digits by Saturday but much cooler for most of the coast with some marine layer stratus at least through the morning hours.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...23/155 PM.
Strong high pressure centered over the northern Rockies (close to 600dm) will remain in place most of next week, though it will weaken starting on Wednesday. Models continue to exhibit a large spread of temperature possibilities across southwest California, especially for lower elevations. Confidence is high for the Antelope Valley and other far interior areas seeing high well above 100 and possibly up to 110. But for the remainder of the area the lack of a good offshore push and with the high being so far to the north there's not as much confidence in a huge warm up. Warmer interior valley areas like land Hills should get to 100 for a couple days and possibly a degree or two higher. Otherwise, most coastal areas should be within 4-8 degrees of normal with highs in the 70s and 80s. No heat headlines for the time being but an excessive heat watch may be needed in the next day or two for the Antelope Valley and possibly the mountains and interior SLO County if confidence with the forecast remains high.
Looking a little beyond that some models are showing a decent easterly wave pushing up from the southeast with good moisture. Ensembles are showing PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in the 1.4-1.7" range. So we could be looking at an active period at the end of the week with monsoon convection and still quite a warm air mass in place, though not as hot as earlier in the week. The GFS does show quite a bit of weakening in the onshore flow late week so that could help coastal areas warm up more pending cloud cover and possible precip.
High confidence that winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level through Thursday morning. By late Thursday afternoon, there is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island, strongest near the Channel Islands. NW winds are expected to strengthen across the waters on Friday leading to moderate to high confidence in widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds in the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least the weekend.
Patchy drizzle or light rain is possible across all the waters through this morning.
A combination of an elevated long-period south swell and higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to lead to minor tidal overflow and beach erosion through Thursday night across Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches. The most likely time for tidal overflow to occur will be during the evening hours with the higher of the daily high tides, which will range between 7 and 7.5 feet both nights. In addition, the south swell will also bring elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet and dangerous rip currents along these beaches, especially south-facing shores. As such, a Beach Hazards Statement will remain in effect through Thursday evening. Pooling of water is possible around high tide, and there may be minor flooding of beach parking lots.
The swell will diminish by Friday but high tides will still hover around 7 feet which may lead to continued minor overflow.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zones 40-41. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5pm Thursday to 5am PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).
Hot temperatures are expected to return, and especially for inland areas, starting Saturday and will likely continue for at least several days beyond that. This will likely bring heat-related illness concerns to inland areas.