San Mateo Point CA to the Mexican Border and out 30 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Wind South 10 Knots This Morning...Becoming Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 3 To 4 Feet At 8 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 To 3 Feet At 7 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots...Becoming Northwest 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet At 7 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Wind North 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet At 7 Seconds.|
|Monday...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots...Becoming Northwest 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet At 13 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Wind North 10 Knots In The Evening...Becoming Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Knots. Wind Waves Around 2 Feet Or Less. Swell West 2 To 4 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Diego CA
850am PST Sat Dec 2 2023
Building high pressure will lead to warmer temperatures across Southern California through the middle of next week. The nigheights will still be cold in the valleys, but along the higher terrain, some wind will keep it a bit warmer some nights. Onshore flow returns by late next week as a trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. This will increase onshore flow and bring cooling through next weekend, with a small chance for a few showers west of the mountains as the marine layer moves back inland.
For Extreme Southwestern California Including Orange... San Diego...Western Riverside and Southwestern San Bernardino Counties
Update: Just before 9 AM, skies are mostly clear with the exception of inland Orange County, where patchy low clouds are forming. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by later this morning. It has been a chilly morning; lows uniformly fell into the 40s at the coast and upper-30s to upper-40s across the inland valleys. Warming is expected today as a longwave trough progresses eastward across the central United States and ridging takes hold of the western U.S. Highs today will generally be up to 5 degrees warmer than on Friday, though may still run a degree or two below seasonal averages. Highs will reach the upper-60s across the coast and valleys, the 40s and 50s in the mountains, the upper-50s in the High Desert and low-70s in the lower deserts. No forecast updates are needed this morning.
Previous Discussion (Issued 205am PST Sat Dec 2 2023)... There were some patchy high clouds drifting south over the State overnight, otherwise it was clear with few low clouds, even over the coastal waters. Weak surface pressure gradients weren't supporting much in the way of wind either. The stronger winds were mostly onshore over higher terrain, but in the valleys, there was a weak offshore drift. Dewpoints were lower, so the combination of drier air, mostly clear skies, and light winds is setting up a colder morning for most of us. Some of our colder valleys were already in the upper 30s at 2am PST.
A NW flow aloft will steer a couple more weak disturbances over SoCal through Monday, but the heigheights and thickness will still slowly increase as a ridge over the EastPac expands eastward. This will gradually warm the airmass, resulting in warmer days into the middle of next week. As we get more wind along the higher terrain, the nigheights will respond as well, but in the wind protected valleys, the overnigheights will continue to be quite cold. By midweek, we should see several days of daytime highs some 10-15F above average.
The "Chamber of Commerce" type weather for most of the coming week will trend cooler, perhaps as early as Thursday, but certainly by the end of the week, as a vigorous trough moves inland over California from the Pacific. Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible by Friday over the mountains and deserts, and the coastal waters too. Whether or not this results in some showers or not, it will deepen the marine layer, and cool the region handily. The models have been wrestling with the development of this incoming Pacific wave, so the jury is still out regarding the outcome here. The timing of most significant weather changes over SoCal, looks most certain for Friday-Saturday. For now, the forecast consensus is dry, but a minority of ensemble solutions remain wet, especially over and west of the mountains. In terms of the numbers, the chance of getting one-tenth of an inch at any point over SoCal late next week is less than 10%. Once the wave moves east, we could get a period of gusty Santa Ana winds in it's wake, but these will be cool, and it looks dry again into the following week.
December Outlook....Even though we managed to get some precipitation at the end of November, we are beginning our wet season with a deficit. Earlier in the Fall, extended forecast tools indicated we would be trending to a wetter pattern over CA in December. These models (NMME/IMME) are trending drier now and the Climate Prediction Center has modified their December outlook from favoring wetter conditions over all of CA, to a category of Equal Chances (wet or dry). This is likely catching onto the standing longwave ridge position observed of late near the West Coast. Even though we see the ridge being assaulted by an energetic Pacific jet in the coming weeks, most of the energy is deflected toward the northern latitudes (NorCal and the PacNW). CW3E tools show these areas will be favored for landfalling ARs early this month. Getting any of that moisture at our latitude looks like a struggle, at least for the next week or two.
No hazardous marine weather is expected through next Thursday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
NOAA San Diego CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories