Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Strongest Western Portion. Combined Seas 8 To 9 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds, Building To 10 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Strongest Western Portion. Combined Seas 9 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt, Becoming 20 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 9 To 10 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 9 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft And S 3 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 3 To 5 Ft And S 3 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
732pm PDT Sunday May 22 2022
Warmer conditions expected through at least the middle of the week under developing high pressure. The marine layer will continue to impact coastal areas, but will be less expansive that it was at the end of last week. Gusty winds will affect the mountains and interior valleys each afternoon and evening.
Short Term - Sunday through Wednesday
Overall, another quiet evening across the forecast district. Latest satellite and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies for most areas with some stratus over the coastal waters and along the beaches. Current AMDAR sounding data indicates marine inversion around 1000 feet deep. As for winds, typical southwesterly onshore winds continue across interior sections with some weak northerly winds across the SBA South Coast. All winds are well below any advisory concerns.
For the immediate short term, main issue will be the marine layer stratus and fog. Overnight, H5 heigheights increase a bit which should prevent any appreciable deepening of the inversion. However, high resolution models indicate an eddy circulation over the Bight which should result in widespread stratus/fog across the coastal plain south of Point Conception, but only limited penetration into the coastal valleys (due to the shallow nature of the inversion). North of Point Conception, will anticipate some stratus/fog overnight around the Lompoc/Vandenberg area, but mostly clear skies elsewhere.
Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. Other than some minor tweaks to the areal coverage of the marine layer stratus/fog, no forecast updates are anticipated.
***From Previous Discussion***
Marine layer clouds from last night have lingered over portions of the waters today, and will have the tendency to push into a few coastal spots this afternoon. Otherwise, expecting a nice sunny day with temperatures within 5-10 degrees of normal.
By tonight, pressure gradients favor northerly flow supported by a LAX-BFL offshore pressure gradient of around 3 mb. Some breezy conditions are expected for the southern mountains, the I-5 cooridor, Antelope Valley, and along western portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast. Northerly winds will remain below advisory levels (gusts up to 35 mph, isolated gusts 40 mph near Gaviota expected). An early return of marine layer clouds is possible for the LA Coast, and cloud and fog should favor southern portions of the region due to a Catalina Eddy.
Heigheights continue to rise through Monday, further squishing the marine layer and driving the warming trend. Northerly gradients are stronger Monday night, but winds are still expected to remain below advisory levels.
Long Term - Thursday through Sunday
Ensembles appear in good agreement with the current pattern, transitioning from ridging to troughing over the Wednesday to Saturday timeframe. Warming is forecast to peak Wednesday, with the ridge centered on the region. Currently, guidance suggests temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal for interior areas, with much cooler near normal values at the coasts due to good westerly onshore flow. Expecting more evening to morning marine layer clouds at the coasts through Friday morning. Westerly onshore flow peaks Thursday as temperatures start to fall off and heigheights lower, allowing for a deeper marine layer and clouds to push towards the valleys Thursday night. Things change late Friday as an upper level trough brings in NW flow, scouring out marine layer clouds. Saturday appears similar, with little change to the overall pattern.
High confidence in Gale Force winds affecting the outer waters north of Point Sal through Monday Night, except for a brief break Monday morning. Converted the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning as a result. Moderate confidence that those Gale winds will also extend to the outer waters northwest of San Miguel Island, but high confidence they will stay at least 30 miles from the nearest shore (northwest portion of zone PZZ670). These winds will also create Small Craft Advisory conditions for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast and outer waters down to San Nicolas Island, for winds 20-30 knots and/or choppy seas. The rest of the area should have fairly benign and seasonal conditions, with Southeast morning winds 5-10 knots, and typical seabreezes.
For Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, southerly winds will push up to Monterey County and shove the seasonal coastal jet well offshore. Local south to southeast winds of 10-15 knots are likely near all coasts in the morning hours, especially Wednesday. More significantly, seas will fall to nearly lake-like conditions by Thursday, with only 2-4 feet total waves everywhere including the Central Coast. The coastal jet should reform quickly Thursday Night into Friday, with Gale Force winds and widespread choppy seas returning for the weekend.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1pm to 9pm PDT Monday for zone 645.
Gale Warning in effect until 3am PDT Tuesday for zone 670.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PDT Monday for zone 673.
Gale Warning in effect from 3pm Monday to 3am PDT Tuesday for zone 673.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Tuesday for zone 676.