Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 11 To 12 Ft Dominant Period 17 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt In The Evening, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 11 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 16 Seconds, Subsiding To 9 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 16 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 8 To 9 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 9 To 11 Ft At 19 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt By The Afternoon. Combined Seas 11 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 19 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 11 To 12 Ft Dominant Period 17 Seconds.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 6 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
603am PST Sat Jan 16 2021
There will be gusty north to northeast winds through Sunday and temperatures will be well above normal. A couple of upper level lows will bring much cooler weather beginning Monday and continuing through the week. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers across the mountains of eastern Los Angeles County late Monday night through Tuesday night. There is the potential for very strong and damaging northeast winds Monday night into Wednesday, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...16/531 AM.
Skies were clear across the region again this morning, except for a few high clouds. The pressure gradient between KLAX and KDAG was about 5 mb offshore this morning, less strong than on Fri at this time. Still, advisory level winds are expected once again today in the mountains of VTU/L.A. Counties including the Santa Monica Range, the Santa Clarita Valley, western and northern portions of the San Fernando Valley and the Ventura County Valleys. Winds will spread into the Ventura County coastal plain, and coastal sections of L.A. County from Malibu to West L.A. by mid morning. Overall, expect winds to be a bit less strong than they were on Fri, but still, there could be some isolated gusts to 60 mph in the windier locations.
Strong low level northeast flow will also produce solid advisory level winds this morning through and below passes and canyons of the Santa Lucia Mountains in San Luis Obispo County, and adjacent portions of the SLO County coast.
The very strong upper high off the West Coast will move slowly westward today as a short wave drops through the Great Basin. Slight height falls and some cooling at 950 mb should cause a couple of degrees of cooling in most areas today, but temps will still be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and one or two locations could again reach 90 degrees.
Very little change in the upper pattern tonight and Sunday, with the strong upper high maintaining control of the weather in southern California. Offshore gradients will increase again, with the KLAX to KDAG gradient forecast to jump to over 7 mb offshore according the WRF. While there will not be as much wind on the Central Coast late tonight/Sunday morning, winds will likely be a bit stronger and more widespread across L.A. and VTU Counties late tonight and Sunday morning. Therefore, despite a possible temporary lull in the winds this evening, keeping the Wind Advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon is warranted. With some additional cooling at 950 mb, expect a couple more degrees of cooling on Sunday, though max temps should still rise well into the 80s in the warmest valley and interior coastal areas.
Camarillo Airport, with a high of 94 degrees on Fri, was tied with Camp Pendleton for the hottest spot in the continental United States. The hottest spot in the continental U.S. will certainly be somewhere in southern California again today and Sun.
The operational runs of both the GFS and the EC show a sharpening upper trough dropping southward thru CA Sunday night/early Mon, evolving into a closed upper low just off Pt. Conception late Monday morning. This system will drop southward to a position about 250 nm west of San Diego by late Monday afternoon. There is very little moisture with this system, so do not expect anything more than some clouds with it. However, it will bring significant cooling to the entire region Monday as heigheights and thicknesses drop sharply, Max temps should be down at least 8 to 15 degrees in most areas Mon. Some gusty northeast winds may develop during the afternoon as low level gradients become offshore once again.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/534 AM.
Both the GFS and the EC show an upper low moving quickly across Nevada into CA Monday night. There is a slight chance of rain or snow showers over the eastern L.A, County mtns late Monday night as the upper low moves overhead. The upper low is forecast to merge with the upper low off of northern Baja, forming a rather strong and cold upper low on Tue. In addition, a rather strong surface low will develop Monday night and intensify on Tue. This will really help to crank up the offshore surface pressure gradients between KLAX ad KDAG late Monday night and Tue, which could reach 8 to 9 mb offshore.
The best wind support above 700 mb may end up being to the west of the region. However, that is still somewhat in question. Furthermore, the 00Z run of the GFS continued to show very impressive 60 to 65 knot winds at 850 mb, while the WRF was showing 850 mb winds as high as 75 kt over portions of Los Angeles and Venture Counties. Several of the EC ensemble members are indicating peak wind gusts over 75 mph in the Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys Tue. Needless to say, this has the potential to be a very serious and damaging wind event, likely beginning late Monday or Monday night, peaking Tuesday into Tuesday night, and winding down on Wed. Wind gusts of 80 to 90 mph or even higher are possible in the windiest locations during the peak of this event. This is definitely the type of event that could bring strong northeast winds to the coastal waters and to Catalina Island and the northeast facing harbors of Avalon and Two Harbors.
As the upper low and associated surface low intensify on Tue, a large precipitation shield will develop. The models have been trending a bit farther north with the precipitation, and actually show some light rain and mountain snow affecting eastern Los Angeles County Tuesday into Tuesday night. The 06Z run of the GFS keeps some precipitation across far eastern L.A. County into Wed. At this point, it does not look as though there will be a lot of precipitation, with most of it remaining south and east of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with some cooling on Tue, except there may actually be some warming on the Central Coast, with minor changes in temps on Wed. Beyond Wed, models have been very inconsistent and continue to show plenty of differences. In general, kind of a bland pattern on Thu, with dry northwesterly flow aloft. Near normal temperatures are expected on Thu, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. After that, both the GFS and EC show an upper low approaching the West Coast Thu night and Fri. The GFS is stronger and farther south with it. However, even the GFS shows mainly an increase in clouds on Fri, with additional cooling, and possibly some orographically induced light precipitation in the mtns in the afternoon.
Across the Outer Waters... Gusty northwest winds and hazardous seas will continue through at least Tuesday. There is a 30 percent chance of gale winds this afternoon and again Monday night and Tuesday. Mariners should use extra caution crossing the Morro Bay Harbor entrance this afternoon through Monday.
For the Inner Waters North of Point Sal... The offshore winds from the Santa Lucia Mountains will flirt to near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts this morning, but seas will be over 10 feet and hazardous seas will continue through at least Tuesday. The wind will increase to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels again Monday night and Tuesday.
For the Inner Waters South of Point Conception... There is a 40% chance for Small Craft Advisory level northeast offshore gusts this morning from Point Mugu to Santa Monica out to around Anacapa Island through mid afternoon hours. There is more confidence that SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts will develop late this evening into Sunday for the same area. There is a high probability that offshore NE to E winds will reach GALE levels as a strong Santa Ana wind event develops Monday evening peaking Tuesday. Hazardous seas may reach 10 feet across the western portion of the inner Santa Barbara Channel on Monday.
East facing Harbors, such as Avalon Harbor at Catalina Island and other east facing harbor entrances across the Channel Islands will be affected with strong GALE winds and steep seas entering the harbors. Mariners should stay focused on the upcoming coastal waters forecast due to the very strong winds expected.
A long period west to northwest swell will move through the coastal waters today into early next week resulting in high surf and dangerous rip currents on all west and northwest facing beaches.
For the Central Coast... a large northwest swell will move into the coastal waters through early next week, bringing two periods of high surf. The first will be this afternoon and evening and the second will be on Monday. There is a forty percent chance that a High Surf Warning will be needed for the Central Coast on Monday as dangerous surf could exceed 20 feet.
For the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast... the surf will be increasing to 5 to 8 feet with higher sets across Ventura County Beaches to 10 feet. There will be dangerous rip currents. Another potentially larger swell will bring slightly larger surf across exposed west facing beaches on Monday.
Strong high pressure aloft and moderate offshore pressure gradients will create periods of critical fire weather conditions through today, and possibly into Sunday. The highest fire weather risk will be today across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
Latest computer models indicate low humidities will continue today with winds increasing again this morning through this afternoon. Some areas today may not quite reach the duration for red flag but most areas will have at least 3 to 6 hours of red flag conditions and for this reason the Red Flag Warning is in effect until 4 pm this afternoon.
For Santa Barbara County, it will be very dry early today with widespread humidities below 15 percent and as low as 5-10 percent. However, only isolated pockets of red flag conditions are expected, and generally for less than 6 hours. The exception may be in the hills above Montecito where wind gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Sunday will remain very dry across the area with temperatures well above normal. There will be areas of gusty northeast winds across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties as well.
A strong north to northeast wind event is likely from late Monday or Monday night into Wednesday. Winds will mostly likely be strongest Tuesday and Tuesday night with wind gusts as high as 80 to 90 mph in some areas. At this time it appears humidities will be too high for red flag conditions but damaging winds are possible, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10pm PST Tuesday for zones 34-35-39-40. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 34-51. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 10 pm PST Tuesday for zones 41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Sunday for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 4pm PST this afternoon for zones 244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).
Strong to potentially damaging Santa Ana winds are possible Monday night into early Wednesday. High surf will continue to affect west-facing beaches Monday through Tuesday. Gale force winds are possible across the inner waters Monday night through Tuesday night.