Marine Weather Net

Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal out 10 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ645 Forecast Issued: 201 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 2 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog.
Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
625pm PDT Sunday September 25 2022

Synopsis
25/413 AM.

Ridging aloft and an associated heatwave will peak early this week before broad troughing and cooler conditions build into the region heading into next weekend. Night to morning clouds may become sparse early next week before potentially becoming widespread later in the week.

Short Term - Today through Wednesday
...25/205 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, high pressure centers itself over the eastern deserts on Monday then weakens and moves eastward as a pronounced trough develops across the West Coast. Near the surface, weak diurnal gradients are anticipated (neutral/weak offshore at night...weak onshore during the day).

Forecast-wise, main issue for the short term will continue to be the heat. Overall with the high pressure aloft and the weak gradients, it will be very warm the next couple of days. However, most models continue to slightly trend downward with the high temperatures which tempers forecast confidence. Based on available guidance, will keep EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS in effect for the LA Valleys and Interior Coastal Plain, but will adjust ending time to Tuesday evening (instead of Wednesday evening). Will keep HEAT ADVISORIES in effect for the Ventura Valleys/Santa Monica Mountains through Tuesday evening, but will cancel advisories for the immediate coastal zones. There is a chance that the Warnings may need to be downgraded to advisories by future shifts, but will keep things as is for now. By Wednesday, all areas are expected to be below any heat product thresholds. See LAXNPWLOX for the latest details about the heat products.

The secondary issue for the short term will be the potential for Sundowner winds. High resolution models increase the northerly gradients across the western Santa Ynez Range which will result in increasing northerly winds. At this time, expect winds to remain just below advisory-levels tonight, but there is a decent chance of advisory-level winds Monday evening and again Tuesday evening.

Of more immediate note, satellite indicates some convective development over the Ventura/LA mountains. Given the current instability, will keep the mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas through early this evening. If thunderstorms do develop, gusty outflow winds and lightning are expected to be the main threats.

Long Term - Thursday through Sunday
25/205 PM.

For the extended, models continue to be on the same general synoptic page. Essentially, the area will be between an upper level low that moves into the north central part of the country and a weak upper level high trying to establish over the desert Southwest.

Forecast-wise, the above pattern should result in rather benign weather for the district. Onshore gradients will be on a slow increasing trend, so stratus/fog should gradually become more widespread across the coastal plain and lower coastal valleys. Other than any potential stratus/fog, skies should remain mostly clear through the period. As for temperatures, will anticipate a gradual cooling trend for all areas.

Marine
25/935 AM.

No changes to the marine forecast in the morning update, other than to lighten the winds in the southern inner waters during the late night/early morning hours, to promote more of a diurnal cycle in wind speeds.

By late this afternoon, moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds developing from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. There is a 30% chance of the SCA level winds spreading into the southern and western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and the nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica this afternoon and evening. Then by Monday, gusty winds will become more widespread and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are likely from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...
Excessive Heat Warning... effect from 10am Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 88-365-547-548.
Heat Advisory in effect from 10am Monday to 8pm PDT Tuesday for zones 356>359-363.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2am PDT Monday for zone 650.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2am PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676.