Marine Weather Net

Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

WED

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ673 Forecast Issued: 908 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 12 Seconds.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Evening, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 19 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog.
Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941pm PDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
18/1248 PM.

Skies will be partly cloudy and it will be a little warmer today. There is a slight chance of afternoon and early evening showers today and Tuesday in Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Counties, mainly over mountain areas. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the week before a weak system brings wind, light showers, and cooler weather for the weekend.

Short Term - Monday through Thursday
18/940 PM.

***UPDATE***

The upper low and associated vort max which brought scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to L.A. and VTU Counties this afternoon and earlier this evening was centered near the Salton Sea this evening and it was beginning to move east. Measurable rain was reported in many locations in Ventura County and in about 20-30% of L.A. County. However, due to the quick movement of the showers/storms and dry air at low levels, only a few locations reported more than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some small hail was reported in Bellflower, and there were many reports of lightning. Shower activity decreased quickly around sunset, and while isolated showers continued across Ventura County this evening, there should end or dissipate within the next hour or two. Otherwise, there were just some high clouds moving southwestward into L.A. County around the western periphery of the upper low.

The WRF shows a fairly good amount of moisture tonight, and suggests areas of low clouds and fog later tonight/Tuesday morning in coastal sections of L.A. County and possibly Ventura County, on the Central Coast, and in the Santa Ynez Valley. There could be some locally dense fog, mainly north of Point Conception, where the marine inversion is lower.

Low clouds should burn off in most areas by mid to late morning Tue. The upper low will move eastward Tue. While the WRF still shows good instability, especially across L.A. and VTU Counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, there will be somewhat less in the way of moisture wrapping into the region, and there does not look to be any mid or upper level feature (such as a strong vort) to be a trigger for any storms. Therefore, any showers/tstorms that might develop Tuesday afternoon should be mainly due to orographic lift of the northeasterly flow into the mountains. With N to NE flow through a deep layer, there is still a chance that some showers could drift into the foothills and some interior valley areas of VTU and L.A. Counties. However, expect less in the way of shower/tstorm activity Tue, especially west of the mountains. Increasing onshore flow may bring slight cooling on Tue, especially to the coastal plain, but this may be somewhat offset but height rises. Overall, max temps should be a few degrees above normal.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper low will likely continue to move east Tuesday night and Wed, finally losing its influence on the weather in the forecast area. Expect areas of night thru morning low clouds and fog in coastal areas Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Max temps may drop a bit Wednesday as onshore flow returns.

There will likely be areas of night/morning low clouds in coastal and some valley areas Wednesday night/Thu morning. The ridge will weaken and flatten with a large upper low moving toward the West Coast. Max temps will likely still be above normal Thu.

Long Term - Friday through Monday
18/115 PM.

The flow aloft will shift from zonal on Thu to southwesterly Fri. There may be low clouds again Thu night/Fri morning. Increasing mid and high level moisture pushing into the region will likely bring an increase in clouds to all areas Fri, along with some cooling, bringing temps close to normal levels.

Most ensemble members show measurable rain in most of the area this weekend, but there is uncertainty with respect to amounts and timing. In general the highest chances and rain amounts are in northwest SLO County where up to 0.5" could fall over the weekend. Most other areas will be between 0.1 and 0.25" except for the Antelope Valley which will likely remain rain free.

By Monday the system should be through the area and the CWA (County Warning Area) will see mostly clear skies and warming temps under the eastern Pacific ridge.

Marine
18/210 PM.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters south of Point Arguello and into the southern California bight this afternoon and this evening. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of produce dangerous cloud to surface lightning, locally gusty and erratic winds, and brief heavy showers or small hail that reduces visibility.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is a 40-60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds each afternoon and evening through Wednesday evening. The highest chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds will be for the northern waters today and Tuesday, expanding to north of San Nicolas Island on Wednesday. There is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds for Thursday and Friday, then widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely over the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 20-30 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds each afternoon and evening through Wednesday evening. Wind and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for Thursday and Friday, then there is a high-to-likely chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and a moderate-to-high chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions over the weekend.

NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.