Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 16 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Patchy Drizzle After Midnight.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Patchy Drizzle In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203pm PDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
A general cooling trend will continue through midweek as onshore flow remains in place. There will also be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the San Gabriel Mountains and eastern Antelope Valley. For the weekend, high pressure aloft will build over the West Coast, brining a significant warming trend to the area.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...22/202 PM.
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, low will continue to wobble just off the Central CA coast through the period. Near the surface, moderate onshore gradients will continue.
Given the upper level flow pattern, main issue in the short term is mid/high level moisture drifting northward across Southern CA. For today, it looks like the stream of clouds will generally stay east of our forecast area, but still could generate some partly cloudy skies through tonight across LA county. Main concern will be Wednesday. Models indicate an increase in PWATs (Precipitable Waters) across LA county along with increasing instability. Looks like enough moisture and instability to warrant a slight chance of TSTMs Wednesday afternoon over the San Gabriel Mountains and eastern sections of the Antelope Valley. Also, will need to watch for any potential of this activity to develop across the San Gabriel Valley, but right now that potential is below mentionable levels. Any thunderstorms that do develop will likely produce some brief downpours, but gusty winds and dry lightning will be main concerns with any development.
Otherwise, the forecast through Friday is just a continued exercise in trying to predict the marine layer stratus. H5 heights lower a bit through Thursday which would allow for some deepening of the marine inversion. So with the continued onshore flow, will continue with idea of rather widespread stratus/fog across the coastal plain and into the coastal valleys. Stratus should dissipate nicely each day as inversion does not appear too strong. As for temperatures, expect minor day-to-day fluctuations, generally a little cooler Wednesday/Thursday with some warming on Friday. Do not anticipate any significant wind issues through the period. There will likely be some locally gusty northerly winds across the Santa Ynez Range Wednesday night and Thursday night, but nothing expected to approach advisory levels.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/202 PM.
For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. At upper levels, strong ridge will build over the western states. Near the surface, weak to moderate onshore gradients are forecast to continue.
Forecast-wise, this pattern sets the stage for another round of significant heat for the area. The center of the upper level ridge will be centered over the Pacific Northwest through the period. So, our area will avoid the worst heat. However, it still is expected to be very warm with Sunday likely the warmest day. In fact on Sunday, interior sections (valleys to the deserts) are expected to have temperatures ranging 100-110 degrees. There is a good chance that some heat products (advisories or warnings) will be needed for the mountains, deserts and interior SLO county Sunday and Monday. The continued onshore flow will keep the coastal plain cooler, but temperatures will still be well above seasonal normals.
As for clouds, will continue with some mention of night and morning stratus/fog for the coastal plain, given the continued onshore gradients. However, would not be surprised to see the weekend stratus forecast being overdone, given the strength of the upper level ridge. For the middle of next week, the synoptic pattern will result in an easterly upper level flow over the area. So, there is the potential for an easterly wave to bring a threat of showers/thunderstorms. Too far out to have any level of confidence in that potential, but the situation will be monitored closely over the coming days.
High confidence that winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level through Thursday morning. By late Thursday afternoon, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island, strongest near the Channel Islands. NW winds are expected to strengthen across the waters on Friday leading to moderate confidence in widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through the weekend.
Patchy drizzle or light rain is possible across all the waters tonight through Wednesday morning.
A combination of an elevated long-period south swell and higher than normal astronomical tides will lead to minor tidal overflow across beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties this evening through Saturday. The most likely time for this to occur will be during the evening hours. Each evening the high tide will range between 7 and 7.5 feet, with the highest tides expected on Wednesday and Thursday. A Beach Hazards Statement will remain in effect from this evening through Thursday evening for these areas, with a good chance it will be extended through Saturday. Pooling of water is possible around high tide, and there may be minor flooding of beach parking lots. Minor tidal overflow is also possible across beaches of the Santa Barbara County South Coast.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6pm PDT this evening through Thursday evening for zones 40-41. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).
Hot temperatures are expected to return, and especially for inland areas, starting Saturday and will likely continue for at least several days beyond that. This will likely bring heat-related illness concerns to inland areas.