Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Strongest Northwestern Portion. Combined Seas 8 To 9 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 12 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 12 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 16 Seconds, Subsiding To 11 Ft Dominant Period 16 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 9 To 11 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 10 To 12 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 13 To 14 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Northwestern Portion, Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Elsewhere, Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 12 To 14 Ft Dominant Period 18 Seconds, Subsiding To 11 To 12 Ft Dominant Period 16 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
223pm PST Fri Jan 15 2021
There will be gusty north to northeast winds through Sunday with the potential for very strong northeast winds Tuesday and Wednesday, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Temperatures will be well above normal through Sunday, then much cooler starting Monday.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...15/217 PM.
An exceptionally warm day across SW CA today, particularly over VTU/L.A. Counties where temps have reached the mid 80s to low 90s across many of the vly and coastal areas. There have been 7 records highs thus far including Downtown L.A. which has reached at least 86 (old record 85 set in 2014), and Camarillo airport which reached 94 degrees (old record 88 set in 1975). The high at Camarillo also tied the January record with January 31, 2003. Temps could still go up another degree or so before mid afternoon.
Mostly sunny skies covered the forecast area early this afternoon with just a few thin hi clouds at times. Little change is expected thru sunset. Good offshore pressure gradients to the N and E continued early this afternoon (at 22Z LAX-BFL -5.1 mb and LAX- DAG -5.6 mb) which were helping to drive gusty N to NE winds across many of the wind-prone areas of VTU/L.A. Counties. Isolated gusts over 50 mph have been noted in the foothills and mtns of VTU/L.A. Counties, but overall the gusts have been generally in the 30 to 40 mph range. The gusty winds will gradually diminish thru the afternoon, and the Wind Advisory in effect for many of these areas will likely be allowed to expire at 3pm PST.
An unseasonably strong 591 dm upper level high was about 300 NM SW of Point Conception early this afternoon. This high will move little the rest of today then drift slowly W tonight thru Sun. H5 heigheights over the forecast area around 588-590 dm this afternoon will drop to 584-586 dm on Sat, then fall further to about 581-583 dm on Sun. It looks like a sharp upper level trough will move into northern CA Sunday night, then strengthen into an upper level low while pushing quickly thru swarning CA Monday morning, and south to a position off the northern Baja coast Monday afternoon.
For tonight thru Mon, mostly clear skies will continue altho there may be a few more hi clouds at times especially by Mon. Decent offshore pressure gradients will persist to the N and E thru Sun, with gradients to the N peaking late tonight (NAM forecast LAX-BFL -6.8 mb at 12Z Sat) and gradients to the E peaking late Sat night (NAM forecast LAX-DAG around -7.1 mb at 12Z Sun). There will also be strong N gradients across southern SBA County this evening (e.g., NAM forecast SBA-BFL -6.0 mb at 06Z this evening). Gusty N to NE winds will continue across the region thru Sun, with the strongest winds expected Sat night into Sunday morning across portions of VTU/L.A. Counties and additional Wind Advisories may be needed. Support for widespread Advisory level winds tonight thru Sat is not that impressive, but there will probably be local Advisory level gusts at times in the wind-prone areas. There may also be gusty N winds developing in the L.A./VTU County mtns and vlys Monday morning thru the afternoon, possibly to Advisory levels.
It will turn a couple of degrees cooler Sat but remain much above normal with the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas topping out in the 80s. On Sun, temps will drop a few more degrees with highs in the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, still 8-18 deg above normal. The hottest spot in the continental U.S. will certainly be somewhere in southern California each day thru the weekend. It will turn cooler still on Monday but remain a few degrees above normal with highs for many vlys and coastal areas in the 70s.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...15/217 PM.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended forecast as the deterministic EC and GFS differ in the evolution of a larger upper level low off of northern Baja. Another upper level trough will move out of the Great Basin Monday night and merge with the upper low off of Baja on Tue, but the models differ in just how this will happen including how fast the energy from the Great Basin merges with the base of the upper level trough. At any rate, by Tuesday there will be a large upper level low S of the forecast area. It does appear that some wrap-around moisture will move into eastern L.A. County Monday night thru Tuesday night, with a chance of rain an mtn snow along the N mtn slopes and possibly the L.A. County coast. The upper level low will remain S of the forecast area thru Wednesday (EC furthest S with this feature) then this system should move E Wednesday night and Thu altho the EC is much slower. Both the EC and GFS do evolve a large upper level trough along the W coast by Fri with some rain and mtn snow moving into swarning CA, at least by the afternoon. However, the GFS is the wetter of the two models. Decided to go with the NBM for the extended with regard to precipitation chances due to the major uncertainties.
Of more importance, the GFS and EC do forecast strong offshore gradients mainly to the E Monday night into Tue, with the GFS predicting the LAX-DAG pressure gradient to be -9.2 mb at 12Z Tue, while the EC forecasts it to be -7.2 mb. There is support for widespread strong and potentially damaging N to NE winds over the many parts of VTU/L.A. Counties Monday night and Tue. There are indications that gusty Advisory-level winds may even impact much of coastal L.A. County east of Mailbu and out to Catalina Island. We are keeping a close eye to this developing strong wind event. There will likely be High Wind watches issued for this event by late in the weekend.
Temperatures across the region will turn much cooler on Tue, closer to seasonal norms, then remain near or slightly above normal Wednesday and Thu before falling to several degrees below normal for many areas on Fri.
Across the Outer Waters... Gusty northwest wind will reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level by early evening for the western portion of the outer waters including areas northwest of San Nicolas Island in PZZ676. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind gusts will continue through much of the forecast area. Hazardous seas greater than 10 feet will develop by Saturday morning and continue through at least Tuesday. Mariners should use extra caution crossing the Morro Bay Harbor entrance Saturday afternoon through Monday.
For the Inner Waters North of Point Sal... The wind will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level, but there is a thirty percent chance that northeast winds off the Santa Lucia Mountains could bring early morning SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds nearshore Saturday morning and for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) northwest gusts Saturday afternoon through early evening. Hazardous seas will move into the zone by Saturday morning.
For the Inner Waters South of Point Conception... Northeast wind gusts to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level will occur across the waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica out to around Anacapa Island through mid afternoon. Similar winds are likely to occur again Saturday morning for same area. There is a chance for gusty northeast winds from Ventura to Point Mugu Saturday morning. There is a chance for seas to reach 10 feet across the western portion of the inner Santa Barbara Channel Monday through Monday night.
Strong north to northeast winds are likely across all the waters Monday and Tuesday with a potential for gales.
A long period west to northwest swell will move through the coastal waters Saturday into early next week resulting in additional high surf and dangerous rip currents on all west and northwest facing beaches.
For the Central Coast... a large northwest swell will move into the coastal waters late this evening and into the weekend bringing two peaks of high surf including Saturday afternoon and evening and again on Monday. There is a forty percent chance that a High Surf Warning will be needed for the Central Coast on Monday as dangerous surf could exceed 20 feet.
For the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast... there will be elevated surf 3 to 5 feet today, increasing to 5 to 8 feet Saturday evening with higher sets across Ventura County Beaches to 10 feet. There will be dangerous rip currents. Another potentially larger swell could bring slightly larger surf across exposed west facing beaches on Monday.
Strong high pressure aloft and moderate offshore pressure gradients will create periods of critical fire weather conditions through Saturday and possibly into Sunday. The highest fire weather risk will be today across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds are expected to drop off later this afternoon through the overnight hours, however the latest computer models indicate low humidities will continue through Saturday with winds increasing again early Saturday morning through afternoon. Some areas on Saturday may not quite reach the duration for red flag but most areas will have at least 3 to 6 hours of red flag conditions and for this reason the warning has been extended until 4 pm Saturday.
For Santa Barbara County, it will be very dry today into early Saturday with widespread humidities below 15 percent and as low as 5-10 percent. However, models have backed off slightly on the wind speeds and it now appears only isolated pockets of red flag conditions are expected, and generally for less than 6 hours. The exception may be in the hills above Montecito where winds gusting up to 45 mph are possible.
Sunday will remain very dry across the area with temperatures well above normal. However, winds in most areas should be below 25 mph with only isolated wind gusts to around 35 mph in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
A strong north to northeast wind event is likely sometime between Monday and Wednesday, mostly likely strongest Tuesday and Tuesday night with wind gusts as high as 80 mph or possibly even higher in some areas. At this time it appears humidities will be too high for red flag conditions but damaging winds are possible, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 10pm this evening to 10 PM PST Tuesday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 9am Saturday to 10pm PST Tuesday for zones 39-40. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3pm Saturday to 10pm PST Tuesday for zones 41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 4pm PST Saturday for zones 244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9am Saturday to 3am PST Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).
Strong to potentially damaging Santa Ana winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday night. High surf will continue to affect west-facing beaches Monday through Tuesday.