Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 12 To 14 Ft Dominant Period 14 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Strongest Around Point Conception. Combined Seas 11 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds, Subsiding To 10 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Strongest Around Point Conception. Combined Seas 11 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds, Subsiding To 9 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds In The Afternoon.
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Strongest Around Point Conception. Combined Seas 8 To 10 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds.
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 9 Ft Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain.
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 10 Ft.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
556am PST Sunday Mar 3 2024
A cold and showery weather pattern will linger into Monday as a storm system slowly exits the region. Moderate to locally strong winds will continue across portions the region through tonight then be focused across southern Santa Barbara County and into the Interstate 5 Corridor. Dry and mild conditions to follow by later Monday through Tuesday, then another weak storm will likely bring light to moderate rain and mountain snow to the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will build in for late week and bring warmer and drier weather.
Short Term - Today through Tuesday
Skies were cloudy across the region this morning. There were a few bands of light to moderate showers, with locally embedded heavier downpours. The largest cluster of showers was located in Ventura County and will push across L.A. County before sunrise.
Gusty southwest to west winds continued across much of the region this morning, but have begun to diminish. Have replaced all High Wind Warnings with Wind Advisories, and have extended the Wind Advisories through this evening in many areas, and through Mon morning for the I-5 Corridor. Have cancelled all Wind Advisories across SLO/SBA Counties, a few hours before they were due to expire, since winds, although gusty at times, will likely remain below advisory levels.
A large and cold upper low was located about 250 NM west of Seattle early this morning, with a broad trough extending southward into the forecast area. With plenty of deep moisture across the region this morning along with cyclonic westerly flow aloft, expect scattered showers to continue through the morning, with numerous showers in the mountains and across eastern L.A. County. Will keep both the Winter Weather Advisory for the northern Ventura County and the interior mtns of SBA County, and the Winter Storm Warning for the eastern San Gabriel Mountains in L.A. County in effect until late morning. Expect a couple of more inches of snow above 4500 feet in these areas on top of what has already fallen. Snow levels today will mostly be above 4000 feet, but could lower to 3500 feet in heavier showers. There is a 10-20% chance of a dusting of snow on portions of I-5 near the Grapevine today.
The flow will turn to a more northwesterly direction this afternoon, and there should be somewhat of a decrease in shower activity, especially in coastal and valley areas south of Pt. Conception. There may be breaks of sun from time to time this afternoon especially in coastal areas south of Pt. Conception. Westerly winds will increase to advisory levels near the beaches of L.A./Ventura Counties, including the Malibu Coast and the Palos Verdes Hills, so a Wind Advisory is in effect there from noon through this evening. It will be another very chilly day across the region, with max temps 6 to 12 degrees below normal in many areas.
Another vort max will move through the cyclonic northwesterly flow tonight, which will bring a somewhat increased chance of showers this evening, especially north of Pt. Conception and in the mountains. Snow levels will be 3500 to 4000 feet, and though accumulating snow tonight will likely be localized, travel on Interstate 5 could be affected by snow into tonight. The chance of showers will finally end in most areas overnight, with just a slight chance that a few lingering snow showers could affect the northern slopes of the mountains into early Monday morning.
Heigheights will rise a bit Monday as northwesterly flow aloft becomes more westerly. Skies should become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Gusty west to northwest winds will likely affect southern SBA County and the Antelope Valley, but should remain below advisory levels. The exception is across the I-5 Corridor, where, as previously mentioned, advisory level winds will continue thru Mon morning. There should be a few degrees of warming in most areas Mon, though max temps will still be several degrees below normal.
Zonal flow aloft over the region Monday will become southwesterly Mon night and Tue. This is in response to an upper low dropping thru the Pacific, to a location about 600 NM west of the Bay Area very late Monday night, and to about 400 NM west of the Bay Area by late Tuesday afternoon. Increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft should transport some high clouds into the region Tue, especially into northern areas, where it will likely become mostly cloudy in the afternoon. At this point, it appears that any rain will stay well to the west of the forecast area through Tuesday afternoon. Max temps may be up another couple of degrees, especially south of Pt. Conception due to some height rises.
Long Term - Wednesday through Saturday
The operational runs of the GFS (Global Forecast System) and EC are now in good agreement, and have shifted the track of the next upper low northward. The GFS forecasts it to be centered about 350 NM W of Pt. Conception late Tuesday night, while the EC is a bit farther north. The GFS shows it tracking east southeastward to about 150 NM WSW of Pt. Conception by Wednesday afternoon (again the EC is slightly farther north). The GFS shows it passing about 125 NM S of Los Angeles late Wednesday night, while the EC brings it close to Catalina Island. Both models show the rain shield from this system affecting the entire forecast area. Since all the models, and many ensemble members were showing a track much farther south, with very little rain, this represents a significant shift. Indeed, many more ensemble members are now showing precipitation across the entire forecast area from this system. Since it is such a departure, confidence is a bit low, but if true, this could produce one half inch to one inch of rain across a good portion of the region.
As for timing, most ensemble members keep the area dry Tuesday evening, with a chance of rain in northwestern areas late Tuesday night, then bring a band of rain from west to east across the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with rain exiting the area late Wednesday night or early Thu morning.
Skies should become partly cloudy Thu afternoon as the upper low pulls away from the area. Heigheights will begin to rise, and after a chilly day Wed, there should be some warming on Thu.
An upper ridge amplifying in the eastern Pacific will move into the West Coast Fri, with several degrees of warming likely as heigheights rise and some northerly flow develops. The ridge should be short-lived as another trough approaches the West Coast Sat, causing heigheights to fall, and bringing an increase in high clouds.
High confidence in the forecast through Monday night, then moderate confidence thereafter.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, widespread Small Craft advisory (SCA) conditions will continue through at least this evening, then there is a 30-70 percent of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions between late tonight and Monday night. The highest chance of SCA conditions are for the waters from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island, while the lowest chance will be northwest of Point Sal. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a moderate chance of SCA conditions each afternoon and evening, except for Wednesday night through Friday when there is a 40-70 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions.
Inside the southern California bight, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds winds will develop again through late this morning and likely continue at times through Monday. There is a 50 percent of Gales nearshore between Rincon Point and Pacific Palisades due to gusty west to northwest winds between noon today and 9 pm this evening. There is a 30-60 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds again on Tuesday afternoon and evening, then diminishing. For Wednesday through Friday, there is a moderate chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions each afternoon and evening.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10am PST Monday for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 10pm PST this evening for zones 87-354-355-362-366-367.
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9pm PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10am PST this morning for zones 353-377. (See LAXWSWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10am PST Monday for zone 378.
Wind Advisory in effect until 10pm PST this evening for zones 379-381>383.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 10am PST this morning for zone 380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Monday for zones 645-670.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 650-655.
Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 3am PST Monday for zones 650-655.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9am PST Tuesday for zones 673-676.