Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 6 To 8 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt In The Morning, Becoming Variable 10 Kt Or Less. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 12 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...Winds Variable 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 5 To 6 Ft At 13 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 7 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft.|
| 203 PM PST Sun Jan 16 2022 |
Synopsis for the southern California coast and Santa Barbara Channel including the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and National Park - PZZ600
at 20Z, or 12 PM PST, a 1040 MB high was over western Colorado with a ridge extending to a 1023 MB high 200 NM W of Eureka. A weak trough of low pressure was located along the southern CA coast.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
404pm PST Sunday Jan 16 2022
It will be partly to mostly cloudy through Monday. There is slight chance of showers on Monday. Temperatures will mostly be above normal despite all of the clouds. Fair weather and a warming trend is likely for next week from Tuesday on.
Short Term - Today through Wednesday
Overall, 12Z models are in good synoptic agreement through Tuesday then begin to diverge on Wednesday. At upper levels, low currently offshore will move inland Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the NAM and GFS retrograde a weak upper low over the area while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) drops a trough across the Great Basin. Near the surface, weak onshore will prevail through Tuesday with neutral/weak offshore flow developing on Wednesday.
Forecast-wise, no major issues expected through the short term period. With the upper low still offshore today and approaching the coast on Monday, plenty of mid and high level clouds will continue to stream over the area. Based on Quantitative Precipitation Forecast progs, there is a chance of some light measurable showers Monday and Monday night, just about anywhere. At this time, measurable rainfall, if any, will be very light (under 0.10 inches). By Tuesday afternoon, the mid/high level clouds will begin to diminish. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, mostly clear skies will prevail except for a chance of some night/morning stratus and fog across the LAX coastal plain.
As for winds, do not anticipate any significant issues. Monday and Tuesday, there will be the typical onshore winds with speeds remaining well below advisory levels. On Wednesday, there may be some weak northeasterly winds developing with the potential for some weak offshore pressure gradients and some northeasterly flow aloft (if the NAM and GFS are correct). Even so, any offshore winds on Wednesday will remain well below advisory levels.
As for temperatures, expect slightly cooler conditions Monday and Tuesday with weak onshore flow (generally a couple degrees around normal levels). On Wednesday, temperatures will rebound a couple degrees most areas with the weakening of the onshore gradients.
Long Term - Thursday through Sunday
For the extended period, 12Z models have the same general synoptic ideas, but to different degrees. Main feature through the period will be an upper level ridge that develops over the West Coast. Due to the GFS maintaining some type of upper low over Baja Mexico through the period, it's less bullish with the ridge than the ECMWF. Looking the respective ensemble members and mean, as well as 3-7 day cluster analysis, it looks like the ECMWF idea (with the stronger ridge) will be the way to go.
Therefore, it looks like a warm and dry extended period for the area. With the upper level ridge developing over the West Coast, skies should remain mostly clear through the period. Looking at MSL progs, there will be some weak to moderate offshore gradients developing during the period. So, there will be the potential for some gusty northeasterly winds across the area. Additionally, the combo of the ridge overhead and offshore surface flow will bring some warm temperatures to the area. Current forecast indicate widespread 70s for high temperatures across the coast and coastal valleys. If the overall synoptic pattern persists, would not be surprised to see some of these forecast temperatures bumped up into the lower to mid 80s.
For the outer waters, there is a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts at times Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially northern and western areas. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Fri.
Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Fri.
Across the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Fri.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Hazard Potential Outlook (Wednesday - Sunday)
No significant hazards expected.