Point Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt, Becoming 20 To 30 Kt With Local Gusts To 35 Kt. Strongest Northwestern Portion In The Afternoon. Combined Seas 7 To 9 Ft Dominant Period 11 Seconds, Building To 10 To 12 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Local Gusts To 35 Kt. Strongest Around Point Conception. Combined Seas 10 To 13 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 9 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 7 Ft At 10 Seconds, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft At 13 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 4 To 6 Ft And S 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
828pm PST Sat Nov 26 2022
A cooling trend is expected through Monday. There will be a return to night through morning low clouds in some coastal areas tonight, with much more significant low cloud coverage west of the mountains Sunday night and Monday. Locally gusty northerly winds are possible Monday into Tuesday. It will remain fairly cool next week. There is a chance of rain by the end of the week.
Short Term - Saturday through Tuesday
Another weak inside slider low pressure system passing to our east tonight across the Great Basin, resulting in some increase in northwest upper level wind support. Near the surface, pressure gradients will trend slightly offshore to the north and east tonight. As a result, we are seeing some gusty north to northeast winds across the mountains, foothills, and southern Santa Barbara county which will continue through Sunday morning. As of 8 pm, the strongest winds were focused from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass, where gusts of 30 to 40 mph have been observed. At this time, thinking the north to northeast wind push tonight will remain below advisory levels.
Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies this evening, but still a descent chance of low clouds and patchy dense fog overnight into Sunday morning across the Santa Barbara Central Coast and Santa Ynez Valley (mainly from Lompoc to Santa Ynez). Also, could see some patchy dense fog across the immediate coastal areas of LA/Ventura counties by morning. Given the very low inversion, there is the potential for patchy dense fog in these areas. Another round of chilly temperatures tonight across the interior, followed by mild daytime highest topping out in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday across most valley areas.
*** From previous discussion ***
Otherwise, the forecast through early next week remains the same with a deeper marine layer and greater low cloud coverage Monday morning ahead of the next inside slider trough Monday afternoon and evening. Even cooler highs expected Monday with slow clearing of low clouds.
All those clouds should clear out Monday night into Tuesday as a minor northerly push of wind develops following the trough passage. Breezy north to northwest winds will develop, especially over the coastal waters and in the mountains. Winds should stay below advisory levels over the land but could get close in the Santa Ynez Range and I5 corridor. Tuesday highs will be 4-8 degrees below normal but under sunny skies.
Long Term - Wednesday through Saturday
Still somewhat low confidence in the forecast later next week, though EPS solutions, particularly from the ECMWF, are trending wetter. The big issue and one that will likely still pose problems with the models the next couple days is the Rex Block north of Hawaii. While virtually all of the EC solutions and around half of the GEFS show rain, there is a huge disparity in the amounts. There is also a big difference in the timing in the various EPS solutions, which is likely in large part due to the Rex Block. Rain could start as early at late Thursday, or possibly not until late Saturday or Sunday in some areas. So the official rain chances remain on the smaller side (generally around 30 percent), due to these disparities and the fact that those percentages are based on rain falling in a 12 hour period. The chance of rain falling at some point between Friday and Sunday night is over 80% with the EC EPS and 50-70% for the GEFS. There is a potential for heavy rain with this system (again more so with the ECMWF) as PW's climb to over .8" and several EPS solutions between 1 and 1.2". The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows a 50-60% chance of rainfall greater than a half inch in a 24 hour period from late Saturday to late Sunday. At this point snow levels don't look super low, generally above 5500 feet, but several inches of snow are possible at the higher elevations.
For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory levels winds will continue tonight, then diminish slowly by morning. The chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds will diminish on Sunday, but increase to 60-70% for late Sunday night through Tuesday evening. There is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds on Monday into Tuesday morning. Conds should then be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels later Tuesday night through Thursday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Sunday night, then there is 50-60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts at times Monday and Monday night. Conds should then be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday through Thursday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Monday morning. There is a 50-60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind gusts developing over the western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Monday afternoon. For Monday night and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds over the entire inner waters, and a 30% chance of Gale force winds mainly over western portions. Conds should then be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday night through Thursday.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Sunday for zones 670-673-676.