Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Wind Waves 8 To 10 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 17 Seconds.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 18 Seconds.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 16 Seconds And S Up To 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...S Winds 20 To 30 Knots. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 2 To 4 Ft At 16 Seconds And S Around 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 8 Ft At 15 Seconds And S Up To 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain Likely.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft And S Up To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
927pm PST Monday Nov 28 2022
Cool and quiet through mid week with frost and freezing temperatures possible inland. An unsettled pattern develops thereafter with rain chances increasing for late week into the weekend.
As of 9:18pm Monday...A cold front passed through the Bay Area and Central Coast earlier this afternoon/evening bringing gusty NW winds up to 30-45 mph along the coast and around the Bay Shoreline. Winds have largely settled down since then, but are still gusting over 40 mph over the higher peaks like Mt Tam and Mt Diablo. Winds will continue to weaken tonight, as large- scale flow veers from NW to NE. This will promote drying of the boundary layer and clearing of any remaining clouds. All of these factors will lead to strong radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures at this hour range from the upper 30s in the higher elevations to the low 50s along the coast and around the Bay Shoreline. Lingering winds have helped keep temps from dropping too quickly, but that will change as winds settle down tonight. The forecast for tonight calls for widespread lows in the 30s. Only sites along the immediate coast and Bay Shoreline may stay in the low 40s. Frost and even pockets of freezing temps can be expected in the coldest interior valleys. Coastal locations will not be cold enough for a frost advisory tonight and it is too late in the season for advisories in interior areas. However, may need to consider an advisory for Wednesday morning for certain coastal areas, along with possible freeze products in the interior, as temps will likely be a few degrees colder. No cold records expected to be broken but a couple of sites may come close (see Climate section below).
Otherwise, dry and cool weather forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, before the "main event" arrives Thursday. Confidence is high for widespread rainfall of at least half an inch, with over an inch or two in North Bay and the coastal ranges. Please see the previous discussion for more on the upcoming weather system and the weekly outlook.
As of 02:50pm PST Monday...Weather impacts to the Bay Area and Central Coast over the next few days will be focused on: cold temps (day and night), precip, lower snow levels, and gusty winds.
By Thursday the ridge that brought cold and clear weather will be replaced by a digging upper level trough. Longwave pattern by early Thursday shows a tilted upper level trough across the PacNW. This upper level feature is on track to sweep through the region Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a cold front will approach from the north Wednesday night. The Bay Area will be in the warm sector with weak isentropic lift resulting in increasing clouds and shower activity overnight. By Thursday, dynamics increase with a cold front and upper level jet support. Additionally, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase to near one inch. Light to moderate rain will impact the Thursdayam commute with heaviest rainfall initially over the N Bay and then progressing south through the day. Some of the hi- res models are even showing some hints of a NCFR Thursday afternoon. Needless to say, will need to monitor for minor flooding potential (ponding of roadways). Steadier precipitation will ultimately transition to showers from S to N Thursday into Friday. Rainfall totals have not changed much from Wednesday night through Friday: N Bay/Coastal Mts 1-3", Bay Area 1-2", Interior Monterey/San Benito 0.5-1". In addition to precip, the passing front will result in a 6-12 hour window of stronger winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph with some high spots to near 50 mph. Not enough confidence for Wind Advisory yet, but something to watch. Finally, the frontal passage will usher in another shot of colder air, which will lower snow levels and bring some frozen precipitation to the higher terrainThursday. One challenge will be the temperatures Thursday night into Friday. They'll depend on how much clearing is seen and what the winds will be like. For now, forecast is cold with temperatures dropping back into 30s. It's possible that some patchy black ice could occur.
Rain chances remain in the forecast for the upcoming weekend as another system moves in from the PacNW. Another round of precipitation is possible, but not as much as the first system.
AVIATION...As of 9:20pm Monday... For the 6Z TAFs. Winds are beginning to diminish throughout the region, and are now light to moderate across most terminals. Winds aloft remain elevated, and moderate LLWS concerns are in place for KAPC and KMRY. Stratus is still pinned to the higher elevations of the southern Diablo Range and the Santa Lucias, but these clouds are expected to remain pinned to the higher elevations, and terminals remain VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds turn more towards a northerly or northeasterly direction overnight, before returning to a generally northwesterly pattern during the day on Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR throughout the TAF period. Northwest winds continuing to diminish, but remain gusty through the early overnight hours. Winds turn more northerly overnight, before turning back to the west-northwest during the afternoon, with light to moderate winds.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay... VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds light to moderate throughout, with the current westerly winds turning towards a drainage pattern overnight, before returning to a more northwesterly flow during the day on Tuesday.
Daily Record Low Temperatures Nov 29-30
11/29 Record Low Record Year Forecast Low
Santa Rosa coop 25 2019 30 Kentfield 28 1931 39 Napa State Hospital 28 2015 34 Richmond 37 1906 40 Livermore coop 25 1975 35 SF downtown 40 1906 42 SFO 36 1954 43 Redwood City 28 1931 40 Half Moon Bay 34 2006 39 Oakland Museum 36 1975 40 San Jose Airport 22 1896 39 Gilroy 28 1976 35 Salinas Airport 27 2004 38 King City 23 2004 31
11/30 Record Low Record Year Forecast Low
Santa Rosa coop 26 1933 29 Kentfield 26 1954 39 Napa State Hospital 27 1936 33 Richmond 36 1954 39 Livermore coop 25 1969 34 SF downtown 41 2004 41 SFO 31 1954 41 Redwood City 29 1954 38 Half Moon Bay 32 2004 38 Oakland Museum 38 2004 39 San Jose Airport 25 1896 37 Gilroy 28 1969 33 Salinas Airport 29 1933 35 King City 22 1954 28
as of 08:37pm PST Monday...Winds have peaked but remain hazardous for small craft across the outer waters, as the northwest winds veer towards a more northerly direction by Tuesday morning. Could see brief, localized gale force gusts across the central outer waters this evening. A moderate period northwest swell of 11 to 13 seconds prevails. Winds will diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before next weather system arrives later Wednesday.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory...San Francisco Bay until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm