Marine Weather Net

Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out 10 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
25 - 35
KNOTS

TUE

NE
WINDS
25 - 35
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ565 Forecast Issued: 821 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
Today...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 12 To 14 Ft. W Swell 10 To 12 Ft At 20 Seconds.
Tonight...Nw Winds 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Wind Waves 11 To 13 Ft. W Swell 9 To 11 Ft At 18 Seconds.
Tue...Ne Winds 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Wind Waves 7 To 8 Ft. W Swell 6 To 8 Ft At 16 Seconds.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. W Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 7 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. Nw Swell 8 To 10 Ft.
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821 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
Northerly winds will increase over the waters today with occasional low end gale-force gusts possible. Winds will pick up substantially tonight as a burst of strong offshore winds over land spills over into the waters. Widespread gale force conditions will then persist through tomorrow morning over the entire coastal waters including the San Francisco and Monterey Bays. This will result in widespread hazardous conditions. A large, very long period northwest swell will continue to impact the waters through late today bringing additional hazards. The next long period northwest swell will arrive mid-week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
939am PST Monday Jan 18 2021

Synopsis
Warm, dry weather will continue through Monday, along with gusty offshore winds in the hills of the San Francisco Bay Area. A strong, and much more widespread, offshore wind event is forecast from this evening through Tuesday morning. During this time, damaging winds are possible in the hills and locally in the valleys and near the coast. Winds will gradually diminish on Tuesday afternoon. A cooling trend is forecast from Wednesday through Friday and slight rain chances develop by the end of the week.

as of 08:25am PST Monday...It should come as not surprise that it's a busy start to the day at the weather office this morning. The much advertised wind event is upon us and began to show its hand last night. Impressive winds materialized overnight as reported by the nightshift and numerous weather stations around the Bay Area and Central Coast. The two highest wind reports over the last 12 hours were Mt Diablo at 82 mph and another site in Sonoma county at 87 mph. Needless to say we've received several reports this morning of downed trees and downed powerlines leading to outages across the region. The gusty offshore/downslope flow has also led to a rather mild start in many locations this morning with several stations reporting temperatures in the 60s and 70s this morning.

Will assess the current forecast and make tweaks if needed, but current thinking is winds will "ease" a bit during the afternoon despite remaining on the gusty side. Still expecting another burst of strong offshore flow winds tonight, which are expected to be even stronger and more widespread. Will have a fire weather conference call this morning with agency partners to discuss Fire Weather Watch. This Watch will likely upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Stay tuned and stay safe...

short-wave trough is currently dropping southward across the region with surface high pressure developing to the north and northeast. While there is an increase in high level clouds, surface conditions are beginning to dry out as offshore flow develops and strengthens in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are being reported in the higher elevations of the Bay Area with Mount Diablo seeing gusts in excess of 70 mph. Winds are forecast to increase region-wide today and become more widespread tonight into Tuesday resulting in strong, damaging winds in the region's higher elevations. While the the stronger winds look to be mostly confined to the higher elevations through the day today, stronger wind gusts may occasionally mix down to the lower elevations. This threat greatly increases late tonight into Tuesday morning as wind gusts increase to 60 to 80 mph in the peaks and ridges potentially mix down locally to the valleys and near the coast. All this said, a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the Bay Area today and then expands to the Central Coast tonight. A High Wind Warning will go into effect this afternoon through Tuesday morning for the region's higher elevations. For additional details, please see NPWMTR for the latest wind products.

While conditions aloft begin to cool slightly in response to the mid/upper level trough, dry offshore flow will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures again this afternoon. Additionally, moderate to high fire weather concerns are expected over portions of our region through Tuesday in response to the strong offshore winds and low relative humidity. While precipitation totals so far this winter season remain well below normal, there has been enough rainfall across the San Francisco Bay Area
, particularly in the North Bay, to moisten fuels and limit the threat critical fire weather concerns. That said, fuels remain drier over the Central Coast, enough so to warrant a Fire Weather Watch for elevations above 1,000 feet across Monterey and San Benito Counties. To allow for the coordination with our fire partners later this morning, will hold off on upgrading this watch to a Red Flag Warning at this time. For additional details, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below.

Winds will begin to diminish region-wide during the day on Tuesday, yet remain locally strong and gusty into Tuesday night across the North and East Bay. Temperatures will also cool both during the daytime and overnight through the remainder of the week as a mid/upper level ridging noses into the Pacific Northwest and a cut- off low spins off of the southern California coast. Medium to longer range ensembles indicate the Pacific ridge will retrograde to the west late this week and into the upcoming weekend. This will allow for a series of mid/upper level trough to drop southward along the West Coast providing cooler and potentially unsettled weather conditions. Confidence in the details remain low at this time and will be fine tuned in the coming days, especially once short-term wind and fire weather concerns pass.

Safety remainders from a previous discussion...The offshore wind event continues to look strong and now is the time to act. In case of power outages: make sure cell phones/devices are fully charged, gather up flashligheights and extra batteries, and have a supply of non- perishable food/water. If there are widespread power outages, remember that it may take crews longer to get the power back on so make sure you have what you need in case you have to go a day or two without power. Other things to remember: secure loose outdoor objects, trim dead tree branches on your property, be cautious when driving as occasionally strong gusts may suddenly hit your vehicle, making it difficult to control.

.BEACHES...as of 09:22am PST Monday...A large, very long period northwest swell has arrived at the coast and continue to generate hazardous conditions through this evening. Large swell heigheights will lead to breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet, locally higher at favored breakpoints, along west to northwest facing beaches. As a result, a High Surf Advisory is in effect through this evening for west and northwest facing beaches while a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the northern Monterey Bay including Santa Cruz. With unseasonably warm temperatures this holiday weekend, it will likely attract more people to the coast. Individuals should be reminded that our coastline and the cold Pacific waters remain dangerous as these larger than normal waves impact the coast. Extreme caution is advised when visiting area beaches. Never turn your back to the ocean.

.CLIMATE...Record Type: Highs (Old Record Temp/Year)

Jan 18th

Santa Rosa 74/1976 Kentfield 70/2014 Napa 76/1920 Richmond 71/2018 Livermore 74/1919 San Francisco 70/1920 SFO 68/1948 Redwood City 74/2009 Half Moon Bay 72/2009 Oakland Downtown 73/2014 San Jose 74/1920 Gilroy 80/2014* Santa Cruz 83/1920 Salinas Airport 81/1994 King City 83/2009

*Monthly Records

Fire Weather
as of 02:45am PST Monday...While the Fire Season had officially been declared over and the calendar does say January, the active weather pattern is more typical of autumn and will bring moderate to high fire weather concerns to the region through Tuesday. Meteorologically it looks like a slam dunk, gusty offshore flow and low to moderate humidity. However, the wildcard are the fuels. The Bay Area has received below normal precipitation thus far this wet season. That being said, some early season rains did bring some moisture and allowed fuels moistures to increase. A "green up" is also being reported in most areas as well. That being said, Monterey and San Benito counties have received much less rainfall than areas to the north. Therefore, the drier conditions along the Central Coast increase the fire weather threat. After coordination with agency partners and other forecast offices decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will be most severe Monday night through early sunrise Tuesday. Local models may be a tad aggressive but show RH values potentially dipping into the upper single digits to lower teens with winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph over Monterey and San Benito. Coordination with agency partners will continue with the potential need to upgrade the current Fire Weather Watch into a Red Flag Warning later today. Stay tuned... Marine
as of 08:22am PST Monday...Northerly winds will increase over the waters today with occasional low end gale-force gusts possible. Winds will pick up substantially tonight as a burst of strong offshore winds over land spills over into the waters. Widespread gale force conditions will then persist through tomorrow morning over the entire coastal waters including the San Francisco and Monterey Bays. This will result in widespread hazardous conditions. A large, very long period northwest swell will continue to impact the waters through late today bringing additional hazards. The next long period northwest swell will arrive mid-week.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...Wind Advisory...CAZ518-528-530 High Surf Advisory...CAZ006-505-509-530 High Wind Warning...CAZ507-511-512-517 Wind Advisory...CAZ507-511-512 Wind Advisory...CAZ006-505-506-508>510-513-529 SCA...Mry Bay SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...SF Bay until 3 PM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 PM GLW...SF Bay from 3 PM GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM

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