San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border from 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Wind Ne 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves Becoming 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight. Swell W 2 To 3 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Thu...Wind Ne 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft In The Morning...Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 1 To 3 Ft At 15 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Wind N 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 2 To 5 Ft At 18 Seconds.|
|Fri...Wind N 10 Kt. Gusts To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 4 To 7 Ft At 17 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Wind Nw 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt In The Evening... Becoming Variable Less Than 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 4 To 7 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Sat...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Wind Nw 10 Kt. Gusts To 15 Kt In The Evening. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 3 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 2 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Wind Nw 10 Kt In The Evening...Becoming Variable Less Than 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Wind Variable Less Than 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Wind Se 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 4 To 7 Ft.|
| 212 PM PST Wed Dec 2 2020 |
Synopsis for the far southern California coast - PZZ700
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 10 PM tonight to 8 PM Thursday. Gusty easterly winds will strengthen over the coastal waters tonight, increasing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On Thursday afternoon there will be an erratic mix of east winds and gusty northwest winds resulting in chaotic seas. Offshore flow will continue Friday and Saturday, but the winds will be lighter.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930pm PST Wednesday Dec 2 2020
Warm and dry weather will be the name of the game into early next week as we see periods of offshore flow and very dry air in place. Strong Santa Ana winds with periods of stronger and gusty northeast to east winds for late tonight through Thursday. Periods of gusty east winds, though not as strong, will continue Friday and Saturday. Periods of mostly weaker east to northeast winds will continue into early next week. High temperatures will be coolest tomorrow with above normal temperatures occurring Friday into early next week.
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Evening Update:
The Strong Santa Ana wind event will be peaking overnight as the gradient maximizes. We are seeing a significant increase of winds this evening with a few locations in the Inland Empire gusting around 50 mph, including the Ontario Airport and the Chino Airport. Blowing dust is also being reported at those locations, so have expanded the coverage of blowing dust in the forecast overnight into Thursday morning, as the previous forecast was not covering but sporadic locations. Winds will also begin to pickup in San Diego County by midnight and especially late tonight as the gradient becomes E-W focused. Strong winds will likely reach the San Diego County Coast, mainly north of La Jolla, up to the Camp Pendleton area, which is common during strong events. Therefore have issued a wind advisory for those areas overnight through Thursday afternoon. No other changes to the forecast at this time.
SHORT TERM (Through Friday):
Strengthening offshore flow continues early this afternoon with breezy north and east winds having increased a bit from this morning, seeing more widespread 25-40 MPH gusts in passes and canyons throughout SoCal as of 1 PM. A strengthening ridge aloft over the Northern Rockies and a deepening trough over the Southwest will cause pressure gradients to tighten throughout the day, leading to strong Santa Ana winds for much of the region. The first round will be the strongest and occur near sunset tonight into Thursday morning. Per latest blend of RawHiRes/WRF guidance, nudged up values leading to widespread wind gusts 30-50 MPH being possible in parts of the valleys west of the mountains, with parts of the foothills/mountains/just below passes gusting 50-70 MPH at times. Local gusts over 75 MPH in favorable spots can be expected as well. A High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning are in effect due to the impacts expected from the high winds, along with very low relative humidity values that will lead to critical fire weather conditions for areas away from the immediate coast.
Surface pressure gradients look to weaken Thursday afternoon into the night, so round two will not be as strong, though winds will hang tough for the San Diego County mountains as they take on more of an easterly component. EC ensemble members along with local WRF outputs portray gusts 30-40 MPH (locally 50 MPH or more) at times for the mountains; highest in San Diego County. Expect gusty winds to slowly taper off through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will be coolest Thursday before slightly increasing Friday with chilly nigheights as well. Low temperatures in the 20s will occur in portions of the deserts Friday morning.
(Saturday through Tuesday)... Ensemble models depict weak offshore conditions continuing into the weekend as gradients relax, though RH values looking extremely low in the single digits, so very dry air will be in place. A cut-off low looks to dip south of our area early next week, though ensemble models showing some discrepancies on exact placement. Confidence slowly is increasing that this may lead to another weak to moderate Santa Ana event by Monday and Tuesday for all areas with continued dry weather looking likely through at least the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 10pm Wednesday through 8pm Thursday for easterly winds 10-20 kt gusting to 25 kt and choppy seas from a short period wind swell. The wind direction will become more erratic Thursday afternoon, shifting northwesterly at times.
.Beaches... A long period (17-18 seconds) WNW swell will arrive Thursday afternoon, bringing elevated surf of 3-6 feet late in the day. The highest surf will be in southern San Diego County on Friday where the surf will be 5-7 feet. Localized sets to 8 feet cannot be ruled out for beaches south of Del Mar. Surf will subside Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued. See the bulletin for more information.
Santa Ana winds will strengthen this afternoon and evening with periods of stronger and gusty northeast to east winds for late tonight through Thursday. Winds will gust to 50-60 mph at times in the mountains with isolated gusts over 75 mph. Critical fire weather conditions are expected with extremely critical conditions for areas of San Diego County tonight into Thursday morning. Critical fire weather conditions will continue with periods of gusty east winds, though not as strong, continuing into Thursday night and Friday morning with gusts mostly 50 mph or less.
Lowest daytime humidity will fall to 5 to 10 percent with poor overnight recovery. Lowest values occurring Friday. Winds will be locally breezy through the weekend. It will continue to be dry inland into next week. There will be mostly weak offshore flow with weaker and locally gusty east winds at times this weekend with another potential weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event next Monday and Tuesday. This will continue elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions into early next week.
.SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Wind Warning from 10pm this evening to 6pm PST Thursday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Red Flag Warning from 6pm this evening to 10pm PST Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains- Including The Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The Inland Empire- San Diego County Inland Valleys-San Diego County Mountains- Including The Palomar And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning- Santa Ana Mountains-Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest.
Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through late Friday night for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Wind Advisory until 4pm PST Thursday for San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 8pm PST Thursday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.