Puget Sound and Hood Canal Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Wind Around 5 Kt, Backing To Nw Late. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain This Morning. A Chance Of Tstms With A Slight Chance Of Rain This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. |
| Thu...S Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Rising To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain. |
| Thu Night...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain. |
| Fri...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain. |
| Fri Night...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain. |
| Sat...S Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Rain. |
| Sat Night...S Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Sun...Ne Wind Around 5 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Veering To S After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 932am PDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Just a quick update this morning. Things tracking well right now for convective outbreak later this afternoon into the evening hours. Weak vort max rippling through this morning brought a few lightning strikes over the Kitsap Peninsula. Models were right on top of this feature. Still have low clouds and fog in the Central and Southern Puget Sound. Few breaks in the low clouds at 9 am showing the accas clouds above us right now. Great indicator that the air mass is unstable above the surface. The more we warm up today the more fuel the thunderstorms will have later this afternoon into this evening. Timing for the possible severe thunderstorms still looking like starting around 3 to 4 pm in Lewis county. The storms will be moving quickly and will reach the metro area around 6 pm give or take an hour finally getting to Bellingham around 9 to 10 pm. Everything is still in place for the possibility of severe storms ( hail greater than 1 inch in size and or wind gusts 58 mph or greater ). Something to remember the frequency of lightning is not a factor on whether a storm is severe. The models are starting to show the storms could become organized into a QLCS ( a ragged long squall line ) instead of isolated hit or miss storms. Previous forecast discussion follows with updated aviation section. Synopsis A strong storm system will lift a front across western Washington on Wednesday, bringing in a chance for widespread thunderstorms with severe thunderstorms possible. A cold front Thursday will bring cooler temperatures while maintaining unsettled conditions. Active weather is favored to continue through the period with near-normal temperatures. Short Term - Today through Friday The main story today is the potential for severe thunderstorms across western WA this afternoon and evening with a warm, moist and unstable air mass over the region. We're under strong, diffluent flow with a deep/stacked system rotating offshore. Per the HREF model, showers/thunderstorms will initiate over western OR around 1-2pm then spread northward into western WA through the rest of the afternoon and evening (as a cold front moves in). Timing for the Seattle metro area is around 5-7 pm. Steep lapse rates and mean CAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg support strong updrafts across the area with supercells expected. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms west of the Cascades. The main threats include large hail (up to 2" in diameter), damaging wind (58 mph or greater) and (to a lesser extent) brief tornadoes. Other threats include cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy downpours. Severe weather threats start to diminish this evening (after 9 pm) as a shortwave ejects north into B.C. All in all, a very active day anticipated with multiple weather threats not too common for the NW. The upper low continues to spin offshore on Thursday, keeping the weather showery across western WA. There is still a threat of thunderstorms across the area but we're not expecting severe thunderstorm development. It'll be breezy along the coast and north interior with S/SE gusts to 30-40 mph. Friday will be cooler (back to normal) as the upper low nudges inland. The air mass remains moist with additional showers expected. 33 Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Upper level troughing over the Pac NW will maintain showers as we move toward the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to our seasonal averages with highs in the lower to mid 50s. A weak ridge brings a short break in the weather moving into Sunday. More wet and windy weather is headed our way next week as low pressure shifts inland. 33 Marine Surface high pressure has shifted inland this morning making room for an incoming low pressure system offshore and a strong cold front associated with it. An inversion this morning could produce fog over the inland waters, decreasing visibilities down to 1SM. A cold front will push through the waters this evening into Thursday morning. Behind the front, southerly winds will increase over the coastal waters. Initially the strength of these winds will be at small craft (20 to 30 kts), then consistently strengthen to gale by Thursday afternoon. Most of the gale strength will come with the gusts, with guidance suggesting a 60-70% chance of frequent 35 to 40 kt winds across the coastal waters through Thursday evening. Elsewhere, can expect small craft advisory strength winds over the interior waters (Eastern Strait, Admiralty Inlet, Northern Interior). Coastal seas through tonight generally remaining 6 to 8 feet, slowly building upwards to 15 to 20 feet possible by late Thursday. Seas will begin to subside through Friday, decreasing to below 10 feet by Saturday. Active weather will continue the end of the weekend into the first half of next week, where additional systems look to bring another round of elevated winds and seas. Mazurkiewicz Hydrology A storm system Wednesday will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region, with potential for locally heavy rainfall at times in stronger activity. However, due to the convective and spotty nature of this precipitation, most area rivers are expected to stay below Flood Stage. Precipitation will continue throughout the week as active weather continues, but is not expected to cause significant rises to area rivers. The exception is the Skokomish River, where heavy showers mid- week are favored to bring the Skokomish into Flood Stage by late Thursday where it will likely remain through early Saturday. The latest forecast has the river peaking into Moderate Flood Stage, but large uncertainty exists over the amount of precipitation over the basin. Conditions will continue to be closely monitored. NOAA Seattle WA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 11am PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning from 11am Thursday to 5am PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. |
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