Marine Weather Net

Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ765 Forecast Issued: 833 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Tonight...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters Smooth.
Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds After Midnight. Protected Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.
Wednesday...Hurricane Conditions Possible.
Wednesday Night...Hurricane Conditions Possible.
Thursday...Hurricane Conditions Possible.
Thursday Night...Hurricane Conditions Possible. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
847pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

...New

Issued at 845pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

The forecast this evening is on track and thus updates do not appear necessary.

Near Term
(Through Monday) Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the service area thanks to a dry airmass in place. Looking upstream towards the upper MS/TN Valley, a frontal boundary is discernible via an eastward-moving fragmented belt of clouds just ahead of it. The front is forecast to sag in from the northwest tonight. There may be sufficient moisture/lift accompanying this feature to force a few showers with perhaps isolated thunder beginning later this evening over portions of the Wiregrass Region. However, rain chances are low. Patchy fog is possible mostly in southeast AL for a few hours within/around sunrise. Overnight low temperatures drop into the upper 60s away from the immediate coast.

For Monday, the front continues its push farther into the Tri-state area with a dry airmass ushered in by northwest flow filtering in just beyond the end of the period. Meager upper height falls and widespread Precipitable Water (PWs) values of 1.4-1.8" suggests minimal precipitation coverage aside from the Panhandle where PWs are forecast to be around 2". High temperatures tap out in the low 90s (isolated upper 80s).

.SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

At the start of this term, a cold front is expected to make its way through the Tri-State region. A drier air mass will settle over the area behind the front. Tuesday will be dry with the exception of an isolated shower in the SE FL Big Bend; Probability of Precipitation of 20%. Temperatures on Tuesday will start in the low to mid 60s in the morning, and warm to the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon. Following the front, we can expect light northerly winds.

Long Term
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

This portion of the forecast almost solely consists of the evolution and track of Tropical Storm Ian. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the forecast. Be prepared for possible tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions during the latter half of the week. Temperatures look to be below seasonal averages. Probability of Precipitation range from about 40% in SE AL to 70% in the SE FL Big Bend. Values are expected to change as the forecast becomes more precise later this week. The official NHC forecast takes Ian into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this week as a major hurricane. All interests in the tri-state region should monitor the progress of Ian. We are in the peak of hurricane season, so ensure that you're prepared. Visit www.hurricanes.gov.

Marine
Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Easterly winds shift to the northwest Sunday Night and Monday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. As high pressure builds in from the north, fresh northeast breezes will develop from Monday Night into Tuesday, while seas also increase with the arrival of longer period swells from Tropical Storm Ian. Ian, now over the central Caribbean Sea, is forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. While there is considerable uncertainty in both the track and intensity of Ian, the potential for tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday Night and hurricane conditions by midweek is increasing. Mariners should closely monitor the latest forecasts on Tropical Storm Ian, and review hurricane plans.

Fire Weather
Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

A weak front pushes through the Tri-state area beginning tonight and may bring a few showers (possibly isolated thunder) mainly across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle through Monday. An uptick in northwest winds behind the front prompts high dispersions to creep into portions of the Wiregrass Region. Patchy fog is also possible tomorrow morning mostly over southeast AL.

For Tuesday, a dry airmass arrives and drops min RH values to the mid-upper 20s primarily north of I-10. These dry conditions combined with greater coverage of high dispersions from increased northerly winds introduce some fire concerns outside of the southeast FL Big Bend.

Rain chances spread from the southeast towards the FL Big Bend on Wednesday with strengthening north winds bringing another round of high afternoon dispersions to much of the area.

Hydrology
Issued at 331pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Rainfall amounts from mid to late week will depend on the track of Ian. The latest deterministic rainfall forecast ranges from 3 to 9 inches across the tri-state region from mid to late week, when the potential for flash flooding will increase. The important caveat to all of this is a track further south would mitigate heavy rainfall potential, while a track further north would enhance heavy rain and flooding potential. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as changes are certainly possible.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.