Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Mostly Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700 338 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday across all near and offshore waters. During this time through Wednesday, wave heights will generally remain between 1 to 2 feet, and winds will remain below 10 knots outside of any thunderstorm activity. A cold front is expected to move through the region on Wednesday, which will lead to a rise in wave heights to around 2 to 3 feet as well as an increase in winds to around 10 to 15 knots. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 636am EDT Sunday September 19 2021 48am EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight The wet pattern will continue through the near term. An upper level low situated over southern Louisiana this morning will lift northward through the day and begin to become absorbed into a main trough tonight. In this pattern the region will remain under southwesterly flow with high PW values (Precipitable Water values) again near 2.3 inches. This will allow for widespread convection across the region today and Probability of Precipitation range from 70- 90 percent. The main focus for today will continue to be heavy rain. Widespread totals around one inch fell yesterday with isolated areas of 3-4 inches. An additional 1-2 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts is expected today. Between this additional rainfall and localized heavy rain yesterday, isolated flash flooding will be possible so expect to see Flood Advisories or even a flash flood warning. See the hydro section for more details. Highs today will be limited by the low clouds initially and widespread rain today so expect highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... A quasi-stationary upper level short wave trough is expected to finally lift north of the region on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching long wave trough from the western Conus. These two days will likely be the last two days where Probability of Precipitation will be in the 60-80% range for the afternoon and evening hours. With PW values remaining around 2 inches, the threat for efficient rainfall rates and thus localized flash flooding will still be present. As the upper level short wave lifts north and east, the region will be under the influence of the deep upper level ridge that is currently across the eastern Conus. This will lead to an increase in temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 across the region. Lows will also be warm in the low 70s. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday An approaching upper level trough is expected to propagate eastward through the Conus earlier in the week, and reach the eastern seaboard by Tuesday night. As the trough slides east, and an associated cold front pushes through the region late Wednesday, the airmass across the region is expected to change as much drier air invades the area behind the cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday will be warm in the upper 80s as the front approaches, but by Thursday high temperatures will only be in the low 80s. Low temperatures will also drop into the low to mid 60s and even upper 50s across northern portions of the forecast area. The biggest change; however, will be the drier air as dewpoints will drop from the mid to upper 70s to the low 60s across the region. This will lead to a few refreshing days through the end of the long term period. Marine The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday across all near and offshore waters. During this time through Wednesday, wave heigheights will generally remain between 1 to 2 feet, and winds will remain below 10 knots outside of any thunderstorm activity. A cold front is expected to move through the region on Wednesday, which will lead to a rise in wave heights to around 2 to 3 feet as well as an increase in winds to around 10 to 15 knots. Fire Weather A wet pattern will continue today and tomorrow across the region with high precipitation changes. Based on the wet conditions, there are no fire weather concerns except for low dispersion values expected today and tomorrow. Hydrology The complex pattern that has been in place across the region will once again plague the area today. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected again today, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall forecast for zones west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers. All other areas east of these rivers are in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Another 1-2 inches of widespread rainfall is forecast for today, with localized heavier totals once again possible. Saturday saw isolated pockets of 3-4 inches across SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which lead to some flash flooding across these regions. Although no flash flood watch is planned for today, the threat similar to yesterday still exists; however, it is too difficult to pinpoint which areas will see these heavy totals as they will remain isolated in nature once again. If storm motions once again remain slow enough and training storms develop they may take advantage of the high PW values (Precipitable Water values) still near or over 2 inches across the region, and produce extremely heavy rainfall rates. Given the above, a few flood advisories and flash flood warnings can't be ruled out again for today. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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