Marine Weather Net

Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ765 Forecast Issued: 329 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 2 Seconds In The Afternoon. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.
Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
409pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

.SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 340pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

As the slow moving trough over the central Gulf continues to move eastward, it will continue to force showers and storms over the Gulf. Given the high moisture content and warm SSTs over the Gulf, this forcing for ascent will allow clusters/bursts of thunderstorm activity to take place over the short term. Should shear conditions improve it may be possible for thunderstorms to go from disorganized to organized around a closed area of low pressure. However, guidance doesn't have conditions appearing favorable for robust organization over the Gulf. So we'll most likely see this area of low pressure being more of just a forcing for multiple rounds of convection, for now remaining mostly over our Gulf waters, but that will be track dependent. The NHC currently has this disturbance over the Gulf with a 10% of formation through 48 hours and a 20% chance of formation through 7 days.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Long Term
(Friday through Monday) Issued at 340pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

The area of low pressure is expected to move across the Florida Peninsula throughout Friday with models showing its associated trough strengthening over the Gulf current, which isn't surprising given the baroclinicity in that region. This strengthening will allow our region to be under northerly flow through the long term. Some wrap-around moisture may impact our eastern counties as this low pressure moves up the east coast. Again, this would be track dependent and something we'll have to look out for over the next few days.

Hurricane season begins June 1st, make sure to look over your preparedness plans and kits as we enter a new season.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Marine
Issued at 340pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

Light west to southwest winds today and tonight will become easterly as an area of low pressure develops over the central Gulf, moving eastward toward the Florida Peninsula by the end of the week. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary levels through the week with seas building to around 2 to 4 feet. Rain chances will also increase in association with the developing area of low pressure.

Fire Weather
Issued at 340pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

Rain chances are back on tap beginning Wednesday and into the weekend, although a shower or two could occur later today along the I-75 corridor. Dispersions will be favorable through this time period and afternoon humidity values will be above critical levels.

Hydrology
Issued at 340pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023

Rainfall amounts through the next week are generally below an inch and a half. However, that would depend on how the low pressure system in the central Gulf evolves over the next few days. Otherwise, most of the precipitation may stay offshore, something we'll have to look at closely. There are currently no flooding concerns.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.