Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southwest 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 644am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 407am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 On Thursday a low pressure system moving across the midwest looks to go over the top of a ridge across the FL Peninsula. As a result, most of the activity across our area on Thursday is expected to remain confined to our northernmost and northwesternmost counties when looking at the large-scale. However, if we zoom into the mesoscale, some hi-res guidance is indicating the potential for some sort of QLCS developing throughout the afternoon on Thursday moving towards the FL Big Bend. Should these storms to the north become outflow dominant and the outflow rushes southeast, this could be within the realm of possibility. On Friday the ridge slides eastward as a trough looks to move across eastern CONUS. A fast moving shortwave coming off the Rockies zooms eastward merging with another shortwave rounding the base of the trough. As these two features merge, essentially directly over our region, early Friday morning into Friday afternoon, our risk for severe weather increases. This correlates with why the Storm Prediction Center has our region, north of I-10, under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. With low-level winds possibly around 30-40 kts, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 2 inches and a defined shortwave providing forcing for ascent via PVA, the ingredients for severe would be present. Although, a limiting factor could be timing as an earlier system would have to work against an overnight cap if we decouple. A later system will have part of Friday afternoon to take advantage of around 2000 J/kg of CAPE, which could lead to higher confidence of impactful hazards. With the higher PWATs (Precipitable Waters) comes an increased risk of torrential downpours leading to localized flash flooding issues. Which is why we're under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. The front is expected to clear the region by Friday night. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows generally in the low 70s Friday morning and in the low 60s Saturday morning. Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 407am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Being post-frontal will lead to relatively cooler temps and a decrease in moisture as northerly flow prevails through Monday morning. Although surface winds will be southerly during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze, high pressure will lead to large-scale subsidence. Limiting development to fair weather Cumulus clouds or developing towers that fizzle away. On Monday another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the potential for severe is once again present. We'll have to see how this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back for updates. Expect relatively cooler temps to what we've been experiencing as of late. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Marine Issued at 407am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of 5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15 knots as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late Friday as the front pushes through. Fire Weather Issued at 407am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday north of I10 and region wide Friday as a cold front moves through. High dispersions will be the main fire weather concern over the next few days. Severe storms are possible Friday as the cold front moves across the region. Hydrology Issued at 407am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 A marginal risk of excessive rainfall exists for several of our north and northwest counties on Thursday and for most of the area on Friday as a frontal system looks to push through the region. The primary risk here being torrential downpours within any thunderstorm leading to a localized flash flooding risk. Otherwise, area rivers are expected to remain below flood stage. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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