Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South And Decreasing To Near 5 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots In The Morning, Becoming Southeast And Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700 342 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front over Central Alabama and Central Georgia will reach the far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning and then dissipate. Southwest breezes will diminish as the weakening front draws near. High pressure northeast of Bermuda will expand into the Southeast State, bringing a return of moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes. Otherwise, gusty thunderstorm outflows will be a concern for mariners through this weekend. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 328pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]... While the front remains back across central Georgia and Alabama, a shortwave crossing the forecast area helped to trigger the widespread showers and storms this morning. That feature is now getting ready to exit the area to the east, with some subsidence in its wake keeping redevelopment fairly limited. Expect to see scattered showers and storms across the western zones this afternoon, but overall coverage should be a bit lower than previously forecast. Large-scale forcing looks fairly limited overnight, so expect less coverage than last night. By Wednesday morning, another weak shortwave will move through the base of the trough, helping to kick off additional showers and thunderstorms by late morning through the afternoon. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]... The cold front over Central Alabama and Georgia will limp south through our Florida counties on Wednesday night, then dissipate over the far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning. The proximity of this weak focus along with moderate convective instability will support air mass convection, mainly in the afternoon over land and nighttime over the warm Gulf waters. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday Rainfall chances and amounts are will be on a slow diminishing trend over the course of Friday and Saturday. Deep-layer southeast flow will return on Friday as high pressure near Bermuda expands into the Southeast U.S.. 500 mb heigheights will fluctuate around 5900 meters, which is a proxy for warmer and drier mid-level conditions. This will provide a modest cap for thermal lift. Precipitable Water (PW) values, which have been sky high in recent days, will also dry back closer to normal early summer values. All in all, we should settle back into a familiar pattern of seabreeze-driven afternoon thunderstorms, with nocturnal storms over the warm Gulf waters during the late night and morning hours. Marine A cold front over Central Alabama and Central Georgia will reach the far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning and then dissipate. Southwest breezes will diminish as the weakening front draws near. High pressure northeast of Bermuda will expand into the Southeast State, bringing a return of moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes. Otherwise, gusty thunderstorm outflows will be a concern for mariners through this weekend. Fire Weather A widespread wetting rain has been observed across all districts since last night. Showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will be limited to the more common afternoon variety that fires up along the seabreeze front. Dispersion index values will remain low across some districts each of the next two afternoons, due mainly to light transport winds. Hydrology Have recently cancelled the Flash Flood Watch. The heaviest rainfall has exited the forecast area, and the widespread flash flooding threat has ended. Rain chances will remain fairly high through at least Friday. Of course, summer thunderstorms can always cause localized drainage issues and short-duration flooding due to intense instantaneous rainfall rates. However, synoptic forcing will be lacking, so heavy rainfall should not be widespread or long-lasting enough to cause larger-scale issues. In light of recent rain, most area rivers are rising. One to watch more closely is the Sopchoppy. That basin has picked up about 6 inches of rain in the last 72 hours. Low river levels at the start of this rainfall event may have spared the river from flooding, but it will bear watching. Elsewhere, no rivers are forecast to exceed flood stage. Ensemble river forecasts show little, if any, chance of flooding in the next 7 days. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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