Marine Weather Net

Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ765 Forecast Issued: 759 PM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Rest Of Tonight...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast Late This Evening, Then Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 2 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds After Midnight. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Friday...South Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Saturday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
757pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

...New

Issued at 753pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Temps are on track to fall into the 40s regionwide away from the Gulf Coast. A persistent, light easterly breeze prevents lows from reaching their full potential, although some upper 30s cannot be ruled out in the more rural, sheltered locals.

Synopsis
Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Fair weather and a warming trend are expected through Wednesday night. A cold front will reach the western Panhandle on Thursday, and then stall. The front will start to push eastward again on Thursday night and accelerate east on Friday, with an accompaniment of showers and thunderstorms. It will be followed by below normal temperatures on Saturday and Saturday night, then a warmup from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Near Term
(Through Tuesday) Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Fair weather and a warming trend are expected.

A flat 500 mb ridge over the Middle Gulf this afternoon will move east across the FL Peninsula on Tuesday PM, while strengthening and amplifying a bit. 500 mb heigheights will peak in a range from 5830m over SE Alabama to about 5860m over Dixie County. This will exceed the 90th percentile in the Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology of 500 mb heights. The ensuing warm and dry air aloft will lead to capping subsidence inversions, which will squash any chance of rain.

Meanwhile, surface winds will clock around through the northeast and east tonight, as surface high pressure moves by to the north. By Tuesday, southeasterly low-level flow will develop, in response to deepening low pressure taking shape near the Arklatex region. This will bring an initial return of low-level moisture and dewpoints rebounding through the 40s. This will be enough to gen up a healthy field of fair weather cumulus, especially along and west of a Tallahassee-Albany line.

.SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday) Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

A deepening low pressure center will move from the Arklatex region on Tuesday night to the Upper Great Lakes region on Thursday. With most of the dynamics and support lifting off to the north, its trailing cold front will limp to the western Panhandle on Thursday and then stall.

As southerly flow and moisture deepen in advance of the stalling front, Precipitable Water (PW) values will rise to near or above 1.5 inches areawide. Modest height falls should be enough to weaken the subsidence inversions, with some shallow lift provided by somewhat confluent southerly flow and perhaps the afternoon seabreeze. The better chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm would be over our Central Time Zone counties, which will be closer to the stalling front. Look for a weakly unstable air mass in the pre-frontal environment. Bulk shear will only run around 35 knots, which will not be of less concern for severe weather unless more destabilization happen.

Long Term
(Thursday Night through Monday) Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

The stalled front over the western Panhandle on Thursday will start to push east on Thursday night, gathering further eastward momentum on Friday.

A vigorous shortwave trough will dig from the Central U.S. Rockies into the Southern Plains on Thursday, turning east and crossing the Mississippi River on Friday, then exiting the U.S. East Coast around Saturday evening. This is what will reinvigorate the stalled front starting Thursday night, with that strong eastward push on Friday.

The synoptic setup seems like it would increase severe weather chances as we head into Friday, thanks to the introduction of strong mid- level height falls, increasing flow aloft, and the sharpening of the surface front. However, GEFS ensembles hold instability near I-75 on Friday quite low... quite a bit lower than the deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) run on Friday afternoon. There has been a tendency this cold season for pre-frontal moistening and destabilization to over-perform initial ensemble expectations. Going with this idea, would expect an increase in severe chances as the front picks up steam on Friday afternoon, roughly along and east of the U.S. 19 corridor, including the I-75 corridor of south Georgia.

A cold air mass will follow the front this weekend, with a breezy or windy transition on Fridaypm and Saturday AM. Should be cold enough on Sunday morning over inland locations for frost, especially if winds sufficiently decouple.

Surface high pressure to our north on Sunday will move off the North Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will already become southeasterly next Monday, so a quick-paced warming and moistening trend will be underway starting as soon as Sunday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

Moderate northeast breezes will clock around easterly this evening. Then fresh southeast breezes on Tuesday and Wednesday will result from strengthening low pressure moving northeast across the Arklatex and Mid South regions. A trailing front will stall south of the western Panhandle on Thursday, then push east on Thursday night and Friday. Behind the front, strong northwest breezes will prevail Friday night, decreasing and clocking around through the north on Saturday.

Fire Weather
Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

A turn to easterly flow tonight and southeasterly flow on Tuesday will bring a warming and moistening trend to the air mass from Tuesday all the way through Thursday. Southeast winds could be gusty during the mid-day hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a turn to southerly flow on Thursday. The first chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will emerge over our districts west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers on Thursday. The next cold front will push across the districts on Friday.

Hydrology
Issued at 223pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

Thursday and Friday will feature around 1 inch of rain for many locations, with locally higher amounts. Thursday night will feature the heaviest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Rain will cause rises on most area rivers, some rising into action stage. However, rivers are expected to remain within their banks.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.