Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers Likely Until Early Morning. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658am EDT Wednesday May 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of the area (with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide. 2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week. As of 335am EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of the area (with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide. An upper ridge continues to prevail over the subtropical western Atlantic with a plume of deep moisture rotating around the periphery of the ridge and originating in the Gulf. Meanwhile, a vigorous trough is digging SE through the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is co-located with the upper ridge and centered off the Southeast coast. A stationary front lingers from central VA to the Eastern Shore, but this boundary is beginning to gradually lift to the N/NE. Stratus and areas of fog are occurring in vicinity of the boundary. A subtle shortwave trough has allowed for areas of light rain to expand from central VA to the Northern Neck early this morning, and this activity should lift ENE across the MD Eastern Shore early this morning. Otherwise, a mostly dry period should develop by mid-morning to early afternoon. with higher Probability of Precipitation late in the day into the evening. This timing allows for increased instability, steep low level lapse rates, and somewhat drier air aloft in advance of an approaching cold front. Storm Prediction Center has maintained most of VA/MD zones in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms with the new Day 1 outlook, with 15% probs for damaging winds as the primary threat, and 5% hail probs for the stronger cores. The compressed H7-H5 heigheights will allow for moderately strong W winds aloft, increasing 0-6km bulk shear to 30- 40kt. Instability should be ample, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could lead to more organized storm clusters/line segments. Additionally, heavy rain will remain a threat as PW values (Precipitable Water values) remain 1.75"-2.00". High temperatures today range from the lower to mid 80s N, to the upper 80s/near 90F SE. The general timing for the greatest SVR threat will be 3pm-10pm. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week. The cold front arrives from the north later tonight, and gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. High chance to likely Probability of Precipitation linger into this evening (highest E/SE) in advance of the front, but after that an influx of drier air should shut off precipitation chances into Thursday. Undercut NBM Probability of Precipitation a bit on Thursday, primarily for interior NE NC, but still maintaining chance Probability of Precipitation in this area. Some CAMs develop some isolated convection over the Piedmont during the afternoon. so NBM 20% Probability of Precipitation were maintained. Elsewhere, Probability of Precipitation are less than 15%. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and less humid but due to a well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid 80s Thursday. Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which suppresses the moisture S. 27/00z EPS/GEFS each depict PW values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into early next week. For now, NBM Probability of Precipitation are 20% or less Saturday (mostly likely dry for most locations), with Probability of Precipitation less than 15% Sunday. NBM Probability of Precipitation are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo. Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June. Marine As of 335am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts and locally higher waves late this afternoon and evening. - Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by light flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas possible this weekend. Observations show a light S wind this morning, which will become SW over the next few hours into the daylight hours today. While mainly benign conditions are expected, there is a threat for strong-severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening today which could bring significantly higher wind gusts (40+ kt) and locally higher waves. The associated front will drop southward through the waters late tonight/early Thursday morning with a wind shift to the N expected. Although prevailing sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds are forecast, a brief northerly wind surge with a few gusts to 20 kt is possible around and just after sunrise. A ~10 kt N wind continues through most of Thursday. High pressure brings a period of light flow and afternoon sea breezes Friday. By the weekend, a complex set of lows offshore and a cold front will likely bring a period of onshore flow. Winds don't look particularly impressive, but could near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Saturday night and early Sunday. Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night. Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2 ft range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday; this is ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow and strength of the lows offshore. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
Wakefield Norfolk VA Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite