Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late This Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt...Becoming N Late. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Sw. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006am EDT Wednesday May 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Moderate to heavy rain continues across the northern half of the forecast area. Sensitive areas or areas that received notable rain over the past few days are most prone to hydro issues. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe thunderstorms and a few instances of flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms and a few instances of flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. No major changes to the forecast today. Ongoing rain this morning resulting in some ponding of water in construction zones or poor drainage areas. Will continue to evaluate SVR weather threat this afternoon, may be a tier of counties south than previously thought. Previous modified discussion follows.. The Bermuda High remains in place today across the southwest Atlantic, with a stream of tropical moisture advecting northward to the Mid-Atlantic on the ridge's western periphery. The 12Z IAD sounding had upwards of 1.82" PWAT, and that moisture is expected to remain in place today. Aloft, a strong upper trough digs south over the eastern Great Lakes, dragging with it an associated surface cold front. A stalled frontal boundary remains in place across southern VA this morning, and is expected to lift slightly north this afternoon. Several waves of energy aloft traverse across the stalled boundary through this evening. This is going to produce at least a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area. The first will be from early morning convection over OH/WV that reaches the Allegheny Front around sunrise this morning. These showers/storms are going to be slow moving and could produce a quick 1-3" across parts of western MD and the upper Potomac Highlands. Given the saturated ground conditions from days of rain, this produce instances of flooding. As such, a Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas through this afternoon. The timing for the next round of thunderstorms remains a bit uncertain. 00Z CAM guidance indicate storms developing earlier, from late morning to mid afternoon, though the RRFS still has the main thunderstorm window from mid afternoon to early evening. Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for south of the Potomac River, including DC and southern MD, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to the north. Storm motion is going to be faster as deep-layer winds increase, but locally heavy rainfall could produce some flood threat, especially in urban areas. Damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat from any severe thunderstorms that develop today. While not expecting widespread severe storms, a few could produce wet microbursts in a nearly saturated environment. Low-level lapse rates are forecast around 7-7.5 C/km, and effective deep shear around 40 knots. This favors some organized multi-cell clusters or line segments that cross the area from northwest to southeast. By late evening the majority of these thunderstorms will push south of the area, with residual some showers/storms lingering into the early part of the night. Not expecting severe weather with any late convection in the area. The front moves south of the area by early Thursday morning, with clearing skies and mostly dry conditions behind it. A reinforcing front moves through Thursday afternoon, which could kick off a few showers and storms in Central VA where some moisture lingers. Rain chances are low at around 20-30pct. After that, dry and seasonal conditions expected Friday. A few extra clouds may be noted Saturday, especially north of I-66/US-50 and south of I-64 as a series of upper level low pressure systems pass nearby. The bigger story for the extended period will be the return of sunshine and seasonable/slightly below normal temperatures. Expect highs in the 70s (60s mountains) through Tuesday with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Upper level ridging will persists through the middle of next week with a gradual warming trend expected. Marine Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across the waters this afternoon to evening. Some of these storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, in addition to lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings will likely be needed for parts of the waters. A cold front sweeps through on Thursday, and northerly channeling behind the front could produce SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through Thursday evening. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely Friday. Additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed Saturday afternoon and evening due to northerly channeling. Sunday and Monday bring no marine hazards at this time. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Flood Watch until 4pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ501-509-510. VA...None. WV...Flood Watch until 4pm EDT this afternoon for WVZ501-503-505. Marine None. |
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