Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ530 Forecast Issued: 733 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Isolated Showers.
Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming W Late. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers.
Sun...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
358am EDT Sat July 20 2024

Synopsis
Shower and thunderstorm chances return today as a weak piece of energy traverses a stalled front draped along the Virginia and North Carolina border. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before a warm front lifts into the region Monday and Tuesday. This will result in daily shower and thunderstorm chances along with increased humidity throughout much of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
The stalled boundary to our south is expected to meander northward as a shortwave passes overhead. Precip chances will increase from southwest to northeast through the day, bringing some much needed rainfall to the area. Unfortunately, guidance maintains meager Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, with a half inch or less rainfall, most of which is expected to fall west of I-81 and along our southern periphery.

Cloud cover will keep high temperatures below normal, topping out in the low to mid 80s for most of the area. Low clouds have already moved in to CHO early this morning, but isn't expected to advance much further northward through the day. Rain chances drop off overnight as the shortwave exits and forcing is lost. Low temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Friday, in the low to mid 60s for most.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
The front likely remains stalled to our south into Sunday, limiting Probability of Precipitation to our southern zones. Expect coverage to be reduced compared to Saturday with subsidence on the back end of the exiting shortwave. Reduced cloud cover and southerly flow brings highs back to the upper 80s to low 90s. Clouds build in overnight resulting in milder lows, hovering in the 70s along and east of the I-95 corridor, with mid-upper 60s expected elsewhere.

On Monday, the boundary is expected to stall across the area. A blocking synoptic pattern with the strong Bermuda ridge will keep the area east of an upper trough, in ascent and SW flow aloft. The result will be increasing moisture and chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. The focus of rainfall will depend on where the front sets up, but current WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast projects 0.50-1 inch of rain for the area, which again, we desperately need. Ample cloud cover will tamper temps into the upper 80s, and keep lows mild overnight.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
A strong Bermuda Ridge builds across the far southwest Atlantic and Southeast states through the end of next week. This puts our area in steady south to southwesterly flow that advects in deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a series of mid-level shortwaves are forecast to quickly traverse the region, then a stronger upper trough and associated cold front cross the area late next week. Abundant moisture and instability fuel scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon to early evening. Most rainfall should be beneficial given the ongoing extreme drought west of US-15. Some minor flooding concerns could arise if any heavy rain sets up over a metro area, though there should be enough mean wind to keep storms moving. Afternoon highs each day range from the mid 80s to near 90F, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Marine
S to SE winds are expected through the weekend and into Monday. Winds are expected to be the most southerly on Sunday, but high pressure briefly building in from the north should keep winds light enough that channeling isn't a concern. Showers and thunderstorms could bring stronger gusts to the waters today and Monday, but otherwise no hazardous boating conditions are expected through Monday.

Increasing south to southwest winds by the middle of next week could result in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. A Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise, the main impact to mariners will be the afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop each day. The strongest storms could produce wind gusts near 35 knots.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Light southeast to south winds today continue to result in a small increase in water levels. Although minor flooding is unlikely, vulnerable shoreline (such as Annapolis) could come close early this morning, and reach Action Stage Sunday morning.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
None.