Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Scattered Flurries This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Flurries. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400am EST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 Synopsis A strong, reinforcing cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will briefly build toward the area tomorrow, before a clipper system approaches from the northwest on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back in for Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight A shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery over the Western Great Lakes early this morning will approach the area from the northwest during the day today, before passing overhead tonight. Skies are currently clear across much of the area, and should remain clear through much of the morning. However, clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave disturbance tracks toward the area. This system will be moisture starved in nature, but the combination of synoptic scale ascent and upslope flow will be enough to produce snow showers this afternoon into tonight in the Alleghenies. Around 2-3 inches of very light, fluffy snow is expected by late tonight. Winds will also be gusty out of the west, which could lead to blowing snow at times. Further east, a few passing flurries can't be ruled out this afternoon, but conditions should remain predominantly dry. Steady cold advection has been ongoing all night, causing temperatures to drop into the 20s and lower 30s. Temperatures shouldn't increase much today, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most (teens in the mountains). Northwesterly winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chills in the teens and 20s (single digits above/below zero in the mountains). A strong, reinforcing cold front will move through in the wake of the departing shortwave overnight. This will lead to an uptick in winds, and cause temperatures to drop back into the teens tonight (single digits mountains). Wind chills will reach -10 to -20 in the Alleghenies and along the Blue Ridge, where Cold Weather Advisories are in effect tonight. Wind chills are expected to bottom out around 0 to 5 across the lower elevations. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night High pressure will build to our southwest tomorrow, leading to decreased snow shower activity in the mountains, and completely dry conditions further east. It will remain cold and windy, with high temperatures only in the 20s to lower 30s at lower elevations, and teens in the mountains. A clipper system embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will track toward the area on Thursday. This system will have slightly more moisture to work with, and should produce a period of snow showers in the mountains Thursday into Thursday night. Some locally heavier bursts of snow may be possible at times, and a general 3-6 inches of snow appears likely in the Alleghenies, with locally higher totals possible. Flurries will once again be possible to the east of the mountains, and there may be a small chance for some steadier snow showers to spread further east and produce a quick coating of snow. Locations between the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge (I-81 corridor), as well as northern Maryland should have the best chance (east of the Alleghenies) to experience a brief snow shower Thursday afternoon. It will be yet another cold day, with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s at lower elevations and 20s in the mountains. Long Term - Friday Through Monday For Friday and into the weekend, broad troughing is expected over the CONUS with ridging in place off the West Coast. Guidance is in agreement on the broad upper trough generally digging southward in the west/central CONUS, but otherwise, solutions begin to vary significantly between the major ensembles regarding smaller features. At this time, the features of most concern appear to be a possible shortwave digging into the southwest US before being swept into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic around Saturday, and the strength and position of the upper low over east/central Canada and any embedded shortwaves Sunday/Monday. These two time periods appear to be the most likely shots for precipitation in the extended (east of the mountains). As the upper trough digs south, our area will be squarely in W/SW flow aloft as Arctic area descends into the Plains. As a result, increasingly colder temperatures are expected through the extended. Friday starts near normal in the 40s, and Saturday is expected to be a bit milder in the mid-upper 40s with southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence is increasing for most of the area seeing at least some precipitation Saturday, likely in the form of rain given the temperatures. For Sunday/Monday, temperatures are expected to drop behind the cold front, with highs in the 30s-low 40s Sunday and 20s-30s Monday (and likely colder in the mountains. If features align well for favorable forcing and moisture, wintry precipitation is possible in this time frame. There are still many unknowns this far out, but we will continue to monitor the potential for an impactful winter system. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue within northwesterly flow today. A surge of stronger winds in northwesterly flow will occur tonight behind a reinforcing cold front. Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters tonight. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed Wednesday through at least part of Wednesday night in continued northwesterly flow. Winds finally decrease to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels out of the southwest on Thursday, but could near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels over the widest waters. W/NW winds over the waters early Friday will gradually turn southerly by Friday evening as high pressure passes to our south. Winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front and may reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Behind the cold front Saturday night, winds turn NW and diminish. Tides / Coastal Flooding Offshore flow behind a series of fronts will result in declining water levels through mid week. The strongest negative surge will take place tonight into Wednesday, when blowout conditions will be possible. Water levels will return closer to normal by Thursday as winds take a more southwesterly direction. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for MDZ008. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Wednesday for MDZ008. Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for MDZ001. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to noon EST Wednesday for MDZ001. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to 10am EST Wednesday for MDZ501. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for VAZ503. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to noon EST Wednesday for VAZ503. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to 10am EST Wednesday for VAZ504-507-508. WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for WVZ501- 505. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to noon EST Wednesday for WVZ501-505. Cold Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to 10am EST Wednesday for WVZ503-506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Wednesday for ANZ530>543. |
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