Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Numerous Showers. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Wed...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 900am EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have raised Probability of Precipitation this morning near a stalled front where widespread showers have developed (roughly the US-50 corridor). .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Localized flood threat today, with flood and severe thunderstorm threats areawide Wednesday. - 2) High pressure moves into the region Friday, with temperatures remaining seasonable into next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized flood threat today, with flood and severe thunderstorm threats areawide Wednesday. Weak surface high to the north will push offshore while a stalled frontal boundary lingers over the region through Wednesday. Areas of mist and fog this morning slowly dissipate after sunrise, with spotty showers possible through the early afternoon. The Bermuda High remains in place across the southwestern Atlantic, with split flow across the central CONUS converging over the Mid- Atlantic. Deep southerly flow on the western periphery of the Bermuda High continues to advect deep tropical moisture into our area. Expecting another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms today. Light southeast flow develops today, which will favor showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge and in Central VA. Storm motion is going to be slow and erratic due to weak low-level flow. Very high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.9" and a deep warm cloud layer could yield rainfall rates in excess of 1-2"/hr in the strongest storms. This could result in a flood threat, especially if thunderstorms become locked to the terrain (which could yield are higher flood threat for that local area). The RRFS and HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) indicate this is a possibility. WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding in these areas, and that aligns well with the current thinking of how many heavy thunderstorms will develop. One of the underlying uncertainties is going to be where these storms develop. Overall, the flood threat is on the low side, but potential impacts could be higher. By Wednesday the upper troughing to the north begins to slide south, with an accompanying cold front also pushing south through the Mid- Atlantic. The presence of growing instability, lingering deep layer moisture, and much more forcing/shear from the upper trough is going to introduce a severe weather threat for most of the area. Coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain, but it will certainly be more than Tuesday. Storm motion is going to be faster as deep-layer winds increase, but locally heavy rainfall could produce some flood threat, especially in urban areas. Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for sever thunderstorms on Wednesday. Dry conditions and sunshine finally return Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure moves into the region Friday, with temperatures remaining seasonable into next week. Skies trend clearer beginning Thursday and going into Friday as surface high pressure transitions into the region, along with significant dry air coming in from the north. Despite an upper-level low swinging down into the Northeast that could bring a very slight chance for showers to form here along the southern edge of the region, persistent high pressure off to the west will quickly transition the low offshore and minimize precipitation chances in the area. This pattern signal has stayed consistent over several model runs now, but it's still worth noting that any southward shift in track from this low would increase any chance for showers over the weekend. For now, it looks like only a slight uptick in cloud cover will result from this while the stemming cold front keeps temperatures moderate through the end of the forecast period. Highs consistently range in the 70s for most areas through Monday, with lows generally ranging in the 50s overnight between Friday and Monday. Conditions remain clear going into next week on Monday, with upper-level ridging persisting. Marine Light southeast winds develop this afternoon, then become variable tonight into Wednesday. Areas of dense fog are possible this morning. Thunderstorms are possible across the waters Wednesday afternoon, and Special Marine Warnings may be needed. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night. Wind gusts predominantly stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Friday, but could briefly approach low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria in the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay in the morning. Winds start to increase over the waters late Saturday afternoon and evening, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) becoming a possibility over the southern Bay during then. Northerly winds briefly trend southerly on Friday night before flowing northerly again by Saturday evening. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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