Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Se Winds Around 5 Kt...Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Rain Likely. Patchy Fog. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 735pm EST Sat Dec 27 2025 Synopsis High pressure will remain to the north through Sunday morning before a strong frontal system moves through late Sunday into Monday. A clipper-type system follows in the wake while tracking through the area by mid-week. High pressure returns to the area by later in the week. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning With surface high pressure centered over southern Quebec and a wavy frontal zone arcing along the North Carolina-Virginia border, prevailing winds have largely been out of the north to northeast. The parent frontal zone is expected to drop further south in time while the Canadian high dips down into New England. The influence of this anticyclone will help decrease winds into the evening and night. Expect clouds to expand overnight with the approach of the next frontal system. Forecast lows will fall into the mid/upper 20s, with some low/mid 30s across the central Shenandoah Valley back into the Potomac Highlands. East-facing slopes could see some drizzle later tonight, and where temps fall below freezing (eastern WV and western MD and perhaps the Blue Ridge) there could be some patchy freezing drizzle. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night By Sunday morning, the warm frontal zone attached to the next system will be located over eastern Kentucky down across the Appalachians into the southeastern U.S. As the next trough approaches from the west, expect this warm front to lift poleward in time. However, its northward progression will at times be stunted by the residual high pressure across the New England coast. The current forecast package favors the mildest temperatures across the Allegheny Front into the adjacent mountain valleys. Highs are likely to push into the 50s to near 60 degrees as the warm front moves through late in the day. Elsewhere, while southerly warm advection is noted in the model guidance, the strength of this low-level flow might not be strong enough to lift the boundary across the entire area. Locations along/north of I-66/U.S. 50 may not escape the 40s again. In terms of the precipitation forecast, the model guidance has trended lighter and less widespread relative to earlier runs. Any warm advection showers would be confined to near I-70 and back along the Alleghenies. Sunday night will start off quite mild with midnight temperatures in the low/mid 50s across western Maryland down into portions of the Allegheny Front. Mountain wind fields will pick in strength overnight as a 50-55 knot southwesterly low-level jet passes overhead. Increasing wind fields combined with extensive cloud cover should maintain mild temperatures which will actually rise through the night. The strong cold front is set to reach the Allegheny Front just before daybreak on Monday. Some of the high-resolution model suite indicates a narrow band of gusty rain showers may accompany this frontal passage early Monday. As this cold front races eastward, precipitation chances drop off as a downsloping westerly wind dries out the downstream air mass. A blustery cold advection wind takes over for the rest of Monday with temperatures falling throughout the day. Thus, high temperatures on Monday will likely occur earlier in the morning and not follow the typical diurnal curve. An anomalous tropospheric wind field accompanies the passage of this trough with 250-mb winds on Monday rising to near 150 knots. At most critical pressure levels, wind anomalies are on the order to 2 to 2.5 standardized deviations above average. All of this adds up to a windy day on Monday with westerly gusts up to 40 to 50 mph, locally up to 55 to 65 mph across much of the Allegheny Front. Given high probabilities of 58 mph and above gusts in the ECWMF ensembles, opted to expand High Wind Watches across the Alleghenies. This is in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. The strong nature of these mountain winds could blow down trees and power lines which may lead to widespread power outages. Elsewhere, advisory-caliber winds could impact those along/north of I-66. The other aspect of this post-frontal air mass will be the cold temperatures and upslope snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front. Some of the showers could spill over to the east given high Froude numbers averaging between 3 and 6. Conditions will be cold and blustery into Monday night with widespread low temperatures in the 20s, with upper single digits to teens in the mountains. For the latter, wind chill temperatures on Monday night likely fall into the -10 to 0F range which will be hazardous to those outdoors without proper attire. Periods of snow showers continue through the night which may lead to an inch or two of accumulations. Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday Strong winds will likely continue throughout the region on Tuesday due to strong cold air advection behind a frontal passage. GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro ensembles along the with the National Blend of Models are showing solid wind advisory level winds for a good portion of the region along with good probabilities for high wind warning level winds along the Allegheny Front. High Wind Watches have been issued for areas along the Allegheny Front on Tuesday to highlight the elevated threat for damaging wind gusts. Cold air advection and the post-frontal pressure surge will slowly weaken on Wednesday leading to a drop off in stronger wind gusts. Upper-level troughing is forecast to build over the region Wednesday and remain over the northeast U.S. through early Friday. A shortwave passing through the upper-level flow, Wednesday into Thurs, along with a strong west to northwesterly flow, may combine and lead to an increased threat for upslope snow showers along the Allegheny front. Model soundings in the mountains are showing saturation through the DGZ along with well below freezing temperatures which suggests high snow ratios will be possible. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for areas along and west of the Alleghenies late Wednesday through Thursday. Some snow showers could spill east of the mountains depending on the strength of the low-level winds. Ensembles and deterministic models are indicating the troughy pattern will start to break down toward the end of next week with upper-level ridging starting to build over the region early next weekend. Marine With high pressure to the north across southern Quebec and a wavy frontal zone near the Virginia-North Carolina border, a prevailing northerly wind is evident across the waters. Winds have dropped off and will remain that way through much of Sunday. The influence of a strong cold front will aid in strengthening southerlies by Sunday evening into the night. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed during this uptick. The mentioned cold front crosses the waters on Monday morning which shifts winds over to southwest to westerly. Gusts on Monday morning likely push into the 25 to 30 knot range before rising further by the afternoon/evening. Gale conditions are looking increasingly likely Monday. Gale Watches will likely be needed soon for this upcoming wind event. Gale force winds are likely on Tuesday and may even linger into Wednesday morning. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed through Wednesday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tide levels will briefly dip in northerly winds through tonight, then will rebound in southerly flow Sunday into early Monday. Annapolis may near minor flood threshold. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for VAZ503-504. WV...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for WVZ501>506. Marine None. |
Dover DE Radar
Northeast Radar