Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

E
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ530 Forecast Issued: 935 AM EST Sat Mar 02 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
Rest Of Today...E Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Becoming Nw Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain. Patchy Fog Late This Morning. Patchy Fog This Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm... Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less This Afternoon.
Tonight...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026am EST Sat Mar 2 2024

Synopsis
Low pressure will drift northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight, then depart out to sea Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in its wake late Sunday through Monday. A cold front will then approach from the Ohio River Valley as waves of low pressure approach from the Gulf Coast Tuesday through Friday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of mid morning, low pressure is located near southeast Virginia, tracking northeastward along a warm (cold air damming) front. The back edge of the primary rain shield has lifted about halfway across the CWA (County Warning Area) and will continue to exit to the northeast through early afternoon. However, low clouds, light fog, and drizzle are lingering behind as much of the area remains in the CAD airmass.

Visible satellite imagery shows some thinness/breaks developing in the overcast in Highland and Nelson Counties, and expect gradual clearing to progress northward through the remainder of the day as winds take on a more northwesterly component. The main question is how quickly this occurs, as areas that see sun will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while cloudy areas may stay in the 40s. Have shaved several degrees off the MaxT forecast, especially in northern areas, but will continue to adjust to trends as the day progresses.

Low pressure will lift off to our northeast tonight, but a broken deck of low clouds is expected to linger across the area. Winds will be relatively light, and some patchy fog may form toward daybreak for locations that develop breaks in the cloud cover. It will be a mild night, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
A combination of upper level ridging and low pressure at the surface will result in dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will run well above normal beneath a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will remain light, with highs in the 60s for most (50s in the mountains).

High pressure will lift off to our north and east Sunday night into Monday. In response, light easterly flow will develop at low levels. An increasingly marine air mass will be transported into the area within easterly flow. As a result, low clouds, and/or drizzle may form Sunday night. These low clouds may potentially linger through much of the day Monday, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Depending on how thick the cloud cover is, there could be a wide range of potential temperatures Monday, with ensemble guidance showing anywhere from the low 50s to just shy of 70 for highs. Some light showers or drizzle may be possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, with dry conditions expected further west.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Every period of the Long Term part of the forecast has the potential to see at least some precipitation. Given above to well above normal temperatures, this precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain except perhaps for a few wet snowflakes mixing it at the highest elevations of the Alleghenies late next week.

A large trough moving from the central to eastern CONUS will dominate the weather much of next week, and will be responsible for the unsettled weather locally. A cold front will slowly approach from the Ohio River Valley during the middle to latter part of next week, with multiple waves of low pressure riding along and ahead of it up the East Coast.

Given the orientation and strength of the large scale wind pattern, moisture will be on the increase. Although no one period looks to have particularly excessive moisture or rainfall, the potential exists for a round or two of somewhat heavier rain as each of these waves of low pressure cross given their origins near the Gulf Coast.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will be above to well above normal much of next week. This translates to high temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 40s.

Marine
Low pressure will track over the waters late this morning into early this afternoon, before lifting off to our north and east tonight. In the tight gradient ahead of the low, easterly winds are gusting to near 30 kt at times near southern Maryland. Northwest of a warm front (most of the remainder of the waters), winds have become lighter, but may increase some as the low passes. Either way, winds will decrease this afternoon as the low pulls away. Winds will be light and variable on Sunday, and then light out of the east on Monday.

Onshore flow is forecast heading into the middle of next week. These winds are expected to strengthen by late Wednesday as a wave of low pressure passes nearby, raising the prospects for SCAs.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ530>534-537-539>543. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ535- 536-538.