Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt... Increasing To 35 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Snow Likely. Rain.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Snow Likely .|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
407am EST Thu Jan 28 2021
Low pressure will pass to the southeast this morning. High pressure will return later today through Saturday before another area of low pressure affects the region Sunday into Monday.
Near Term - Through Friday
Latest analysis depicts low pressure just south of the North Carolina coast, heading east-northeast into the open Atlantic. High pressure is centered near International Falls. Aloft, a shortwave is passing over the southern Appalachians, a closed low is centered over eastern Ontario, and a ridge extends across the western High Plains. Further west, a strong storm system is just west of Washington state, heading southeast.
The storm to the south will head out to sea today, but the northernmost fringe of its precipitation shield can bring a little light snow or, more likely, flurries, across our southern and central zones over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, cold dry air should advect southward across the region as the low strengthens. This strengthening will bring a steep pressure gradient across the region over the next two days, and the cold advection should keep conditions relatively unstable enough to get plenty of that wind mixing down to the surface. Thus, we have two cold, blustery days ahead, with Friday having winds a little bit lighter, but temperatures a few degrees colder, than today. Otherwise, clouds this morning should break for some sun and it should remain clear to partly cloudy through Friday. Wind chills will be quite low compared to what we've had so far this winter, so it will feel like a shock to the system. Winds will gust to near 40 mph both today and again Friday, though likely just a bit stronger today. Think we stay just shy of wind advisory levels, but not by much, so held off on wind headlines. That said, the wind/cold combination will likely bring very low wind chills across the mountains, so have raised a wind chill advisory for our westernmost zones along the Allegheny Front. Elsewhere, highs in the 30s will be accompanied by wind chills in the teens and 20s today, dropping to the single digits tonight, with lows in the teens to low 20s.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
High pressure slides east across the region for a relatively short time Friday night and Saturday before the storm near Washington state heads towards us later Saturday night. Thus, less wind but still cold Friday night through Saturday night, with Friday night probably the coldest night as winds lighten and some radiational cooling takes place. Still not close to what we might typically see as a 'coldest' night of a given winter, with readings staying in the teens for most locales, and some warm spots probably still failing to get below 20. But, there's plenty of winter left. Highs Saturday will be similar to Friday and today, but with less wind, it won't feel so bad.
Warm advection envelops the region Saturday night as the storm presently along the West Coast gathers Gulf Moisture and sends it our way. With cold air mass in place, precipitation likely begins as snow region-wide by late Saturday night. Temps stay a little milder with the clouds, with lows in the 20s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
A potent upper level low will move east along the Ohio Valley Sunday and Sunday night, prior to moving into the mid-Atlantic region Monday. As it reaches our CWA, the development and intensification of a coastal low is expected. Helping in feeding this rapid development will be additional upper level energy that will move inside a deepening trough of low pressure across the eastern third of the U.S. The deepening trough and energy that will be intensifying the coastal low will perhaps slow its forward eastward progress early next week. A cold wedge east of the Appalachians will set up the atmosphere in which a large part of our CWA should see, at least, some accumulating snowfall late Saturday night through Monday. The slow forward progress could allow for some places to see a continual snowfall or perhaps some constant bands of light snow. The question is where in our forecast area. The other question is how much snow. Confidence decreases on timing, strength and amounts once we get into midday Monday and thereafter.
As the coastal low slowly works its way away from and up the coast, snow could continue late Monday, Monday night and into early Tuesday across a large portion of our northern zones and northeastern zones. There is a high level of uncertainty on deterioration or constant formation of light snow or snow showers late Monday into Tuesday. We'll continue to assess the situation and trends of the models and adjust our forecast as we get into the end of this week.
The last couple pieces of upper level energy should move out Tuesday night. Precipitation should have tapered and come to an end from southwest to northeast. High pressure will build in quickly both at the surface and mid-levels Wednesday. Thus, tranquil conditions and chilly temperatures are expected.
Strong gusty winds expected today as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Gales in effect for all waters today, dropping back to the lower Potomac/Middle Bay tonight, then expanding again on Friday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) still likely Friday night and Saturday, but high pressure building briefly overhead should allow winds to relax.
Small craft advisories are possible late Sunday and Sunday night. Winds east-southeast to northeast around 10 knots gusts 15 knots. Small craft advisories are likely Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming north then northwest 15 knots gusts 20 to 25 knots.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...Wind Chill Advisory from 9pm this evening to 11am EST Friday for VAZ503. WV...Wind Chill Advisory from 9pm this evening to 11am EST Friday for WVZ501-505.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST early this morning for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for ANZ530>533-535-538>542. Gale Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ530>533-535- 536-538>542. Gale Warning from 6am to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ530>533-535- 538>541. Gale Warning until 6pm EST Friday for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ537. Gale Warning until 6am EST Friday for ANZ537. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ536.