Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Overnight...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928pm EDT Monday Jun 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory issued for the Chesapeke Bay waters tonight. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. - 2) Dry start to the week before turning warmer with showers by mid-week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. A potent shortwave on the southern periphery of a much broader upper low over Canada will track through the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. This will force a highly anomalous area of low pressure to track across the eastern Great Lakes. In fact, this low could potentially break all-time minimum sea level pressure records for the month of June across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan as it tracks through later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most solutions have this low tracking across southern Ontario and Quebec at around 985-990 hPa on Thursday. An unseasonably strong wind field aloft will accompany the highly anomalous low, as 850 hPa winds climb to around 30-50 knots and 500 hPa winds increase to in excess of 50 knots. Low-level south to southwesterly flow will also draw a hot and humid airmass north into the area. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 80s and 90s across the bulk of the forecast area, while dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s. This overlap of a very hot and humid airmass with highly anomalous winds aloft raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. It's still to early to get into the finer scale details, but soundings show an environment that is very favorable for the production of damaging winds. Storm Prediction Center currently has the entire area outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. We'll continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy, potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph even in clear air. The combination of heat and background winds will be something that we don't experience often here in the Mid-Atlantic. The system's cold front will move through Thursday night, advecting a much cooler and less humid airmass into the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s for the upcoming weekend, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry start to the week before turning warmer with showers by mid-week. High pressure approaching from the Tennessee Valley will make for a cool night ahead. Winds remain light which will support lows falling into the 50s, with mid/upper 40s for the mountains. High pressure sticks around through much of Tuesday which favors another tranquil day across the region. Winds gradually shift over to southwesterly for the second half of the day. Besides some fair weather cumulus and passing high clouds, expect a great deal of sunshine with highs nearing 80 degrees, with mid 60s to low 70s across mountain locations. Heading into Tuesday night, a warm front slowly pushes through from the southwest. This sets up for a return to near average temperatures by mid- week. On Wednesday, a broad cyclonic flow regime persists across central/eastern Canada into the Northern Plains out to the northeastern U.S. The guidance shows a progressive shortwave passing by to the north on Wednesday morning. This feature in conjunction with the warm front will spread some light showers to the region, especially along/east of I-95. In the wake of the passing showers and clouds, a mostly sunny day is expected. As mentioned, high temperatures return to near average with readings in the mid/upper 80s (70s across the mountains). Ahead of the next weather maker, some showers might push into western Maryland by late Wednesday night. This comes with widespread low temperatures in the 60s. Marine As northwesterly winds begin to turn over to northerly, some channeling effects are possible across the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay. This would mainly be in the mid- evening to portions of the overnight period. Gradients gradually weaken into Tuesday with gusts around 5 to 10 knots. Winds shift to south-southwesterly on Wednesday which may support Small Craft Advisories for portions of the waters. At least SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear likely on Thursday in southwesterly flow, and Gales may even be possible. SMWs will also likely be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters on Thursday. Winds will shift to out of the northwest on Friday, with winds potentially nearing low- end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Tides / Coastal Flooding With the post-frontal northwesterly flow, tidal anomalies have lowered to around 0 to 0.5 feet. This will allow for a reprieve from any coastal flooding issues. Another ramp up occurs by late Tuesday into Wednesday which would carry Annapolis into Minor tidal flooding again. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. |
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