Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Periods Of Rain.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely With Areas Of Drizzle. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain With Patchy Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
303pm EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
A cold front will stall to the south through tonight before returning north as a warm front Monday. Another cold front will move into the area Tuesday and it will stall out nearby through Friday. The remnants of Zeta and another low pressure may track along the boundary, possibly impacting our area Wednesday night through Friday. High pressure will likely return for next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough crossing the Carolinas. Isentropic ascent/warm advection atop a cold air wedge in place at the surface has enabled rain to develop well in advance of the shortwave. As expected, steadier rain is beginning to taper off as drier mid level air entrains into the back side of the shortwave. Temperatures have leveled off in the 40s, except 50s in far southern MD and some 30s on the ridges.
Low pressure will develop along the stalled front to our south tonight, while high pressure over New England remains wedged down the east side of the Appalachians. Isentropic lift over the cooler wedge will continue to result in light rain at times, but drizzle should become the predominant precipitation as the night progress as mid level dry air expands. Dew points will begin rising (or attempt to) as the low causes the low level boundary to buckle. This will likely result in reduced visibility in fog and mist. Temperatures will likely hold steady through the night, possibly rising a bit in the higher elevations and near southern MD due to warm advection over the shallow boundary.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
The low will move off the coast Monday morning, while the boundary aloft lifts to the north. The surface high will also begin to lose its hold as the center moves east from New England. With lift becoming much weaker, precipitation chances should be ending, although a little drizzle may linger past sunrise, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Southwest flow will develop aloft, which will attempt to mix down and help scour out some of the low clouds. However, the surface pressure pattern is very poorly defined, which means low clouds will hang tough for a good part of the day, especially across north central MD. Models like the NAM pick up on this and keep highs in the 50s in these areas. Did not fully buy into one solution yet since there remains uncertainty about the clouds, but did adjust high temperatures down, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Meanwhile, the central Shenandoah Valley and southern Potomac Highlands could reach the 70s. Weak mid level energy will help shove the composite boundary back toward the southeast Monday night. With limited forcing and moisture, am not expecting much precipitation, though a few showers could sneak into locations west of the Blue Ridge.
On Tuesday and Tuesday night, the flow aloft will flatten in response to troughing across the western CONUS, which will allow the boundary to settle across the Mid Atlantic and stall. Moisture and forcing will continue to be weak, and thus chances of rain will be minimal. By Tuesday night, surface flow may become onshore again to the north of the boundary, which could lead to drizzle developing. The temperature forecast will be tricky depending on the position of the front and just how much rain is associated with it. North of the front, highs could easily stay in the 50s, while to the south, temperatures could reach the lower 70s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Upper level ridging over the southeastern US will begin to break down Wednesday as a H5 low moves over the TX panhandle. At the same time, the remnants of Zeta will continue to move northward through the Gulf states. Guidance is in overall good agreement on Zeta's remnants being absorbed by the southern jet as the jet axis over the CWA becomes orientated in a SE to NE position.
Important to note that guidance has some minor timing issues, however the general idea remains the same. As Zeta pushes northward, the combination of tropical moisture and strong dynamics feeding energy from the H5 low, yields the potential for a soaking rain event for our area, as the newly formed low traverses northeastward along the Appalachians. Generally speaking, a 1-2 inch rain event is plausible as a result, mainly in the Thursday through Friday timeframe.
As mentioned previously, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing of these features and will have to be monitored over the next few days. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding the track of Zeta.
North to northeasterly winds are expected over the waters through the remainder of today. Intermittent SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts (18-21kt) are mainly confined to the wide parts of the central Bay this afternoon. However, winds may pick up slightly again this evening as low pressure tracks to our southeast. Low visibility in fog and mist may develop tonight. Winds will slacken later tonight with existing SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) ending, and remain sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level in nature for Monday and Tuesday as a weak front wavers across the region.
The remnants of Zeta may impact the waters Wednesday night and Thursday with the possibility for stronger winds and a soaking rain. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed for the waters during this time.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A northerly component to the wind has caused water levels to drop across northern parts of the Bay, though an anomaly of 1.4 ft has developed at Norfolk. That water may return later tonight or Monday/Monday night as winds slacken. Minor flooding is possible if these anomalies do indeed return northward up the Bay and Potomac River, though most guidance is rather subdued on the amount of rise and would only result in marginal/threshold flooding at sensitive locations. As of now, it appears that the best chance for the water to return will be on Monday/Monday night.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531-539. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532-533- 540>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ534-537-543.