Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Thu Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
909pm EST Monday Jan 20 2020
A large area of high pressure will move from the northern Plains during the first half of the week, centered overhead by Wednesday. The high will move offshore during the second half of the week, then low pressure will approach from the central United States for Saturday.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
Winds have diminished significantly compared to the daylight hours, but there is still a little bit of a gradient. In spite of this, it looks like there is a chance that partial decoupling could occur. Will be lowering min temps to account for this, as skies are clear and dewpoints are in the single digits. A few single digit readings possible in some of the sheltered valley locations across western areas.
On Tuesday winds will gradually diminish through the morning hours and then become light in the afternoon under sunny skies. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today (Monday).
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Continued dry conditions as upper level ridging aloft will keep skies clear through this period. The center of the surface high will be on top of the region early Wednesday morning leading to another cold night Tues night with calm conditions and clear skies. Daytime highs on Wednesday will slightly moderate.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
Heigheights will be rising significantly Tuesday through the middle of the week leading to a gradual warm up. A surface low pressure center is expected to get organized over the Southeast later in the week as trough digs across the central CONUS and evolves into a deep cutoff low. Precipitation is expected to overspread the area slowly from southwest to northeast late Fri and Fri night. Liquid amounts of close to an inch are possible with this event this upcoming weekend. Wintry precipitation is possible for the Appalachains starting Friday night and continuing into Saturday. Latest 12Z EPS winter probability guidance showing likely chances for greater than 3" in the western mountains Fri night into Saturday...and the EPS has continued an upward trend in higher probabilities of accum snow there. The low system deepens Sat night- Sun. Seasonably cool air along with mainly dry conditions will return for the last week of January.
Gradient has relaxed a bit more than previously forecast. However, a pocket of 20-25 kt winds will be passing through at 2000-3000 ft above the water overnight. The challenge is, with cold air atop warmer water, will this mix down. Have peeled back a couple of zones from the Small Craft Advisory. However, with the window of opportunity from around 02/03Z through 07/08Z, do not want to cancel too much too quickly. Will be monitoring this closely.
Winds may reinvigorate Tuesday morning before high pressure suppresses winds Tuesday afternoon. Guidance still want to hold onto gusty winds Drum Point-Smith Point/Tangier Sound Tuesday night. Am slightly skeptical of this given trends tonight and an examination of time-heights. The high will be overhead by Wednesday, with light winds prevailing through Wednesday night.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected Thursday into late Friday with high pressure in control. Winds will be strengthening from the East Fri night into the weekend with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible mainly over southern waters.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ532-533-537- 541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Wednesday for ANZ534.