Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Thu...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 857pm EDT Wednesday August 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the latest forecast package. The 18Z high-resolution models still show a decent signal for active convection on Thursday afternoon/early evening. However, there are a few solutions that remain more tame in nature. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday, with precipitation chances lingering Friday and Saturday. - 2) Numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday with lingering showers Sunday. Turning cooler and dry next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday, with precipitation chances lingering Friday and Saturday. While the afternoon stratocumulus deck has largely eroded with the loss of daytime heating, additional clouds have begun to move in from the Ohio Valley. This is all occurring ahead of a cold front currently arcing along/north of I-70 in northern Ohio/Indiana. Off to the south, a stalled boundary draped over the Carolinas drifts north as waves of low pressure traverse along it. Precipitation chances increase overnight with showers possible Thursday morning, particularly over western Maryland. Tonight's low temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s. Convective chances increase throughout the day on Thursday as shortwave energy tracks towards the mid-atlantic from the Ohio river valley. There is uncertainty regarding the strength of storms due to morning precipitation and location of the fronts coinciding with peak daytime heating. Best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms is along and east of the I-95 corridor where the best conditions overlap. Here, Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado possible. Effective shear nearing 40 knots combined with CAPE 2000 J/kg allows discrete cells to become more organized into a line as storms track eastward. Confidence is highest along and east of the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon and into early the evening. In addition to the severe threat, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) nearing and exceeding 2" lead to an isolated flooding threat. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall but progressive storm motions should limit flooding threat to sensitive areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday with lingering showers Sunday. Turning cooler and dry for next week. The longwave pattern is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend into next week as trough digs across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will drive a pair of cold fronts across the area Sat and Sunday providing focus for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday looks like the more unstable day as we remain in WSW flow aloft and with better forcing ahead of the trough axis. By Sunday, the first cold front should have pushed the deep moisture and instability to the south limiting the coverage and intensity of showers while the trough axis moves overhead limiting the upper level forcing. As trough axis shifts east of the area Sunday night, expect a cooler and drying trend to start the new work week. Marine Winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the southern Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon. SMWs are possible Thursday afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms track across the waters. Otherwise, non hazardous marine weather is expected through the end of the week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Current tidal anomalies largely range from 0.25 to 0.50 feet this evening. These may rise slightly in time, but only locations like Annapolis and perhaps Alexandria could hit Action stage during the next couple of days. This will particularly be the case during the higher of the two astronomical high tides. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2pm to 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ533- 534-543. |
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