Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sun...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1005am EDT Wednesday July 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments may be needed for sky, rain chances, and temperatures today, but the overall theme of the forecast remains the same. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Brief cool down before a warm up through Friday, which is accompanied by daily shower and thunderstorm chances. - 2) Turning cooler with less humidity over the weekend, but daily storm chances persist. KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief cool down before a warm up through Friday, which is accompanied by daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The cold front is now positioned across North Carolina. While the area is post- frontal in nature, moisture content remains high as noted by the upper 60s to low 70s dew points. Additionally, this is also supported by the elevated precipitable water values, averaging around 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Showers continue to develop in this environment given some very weak instability combined with convergence on the southwest periphery of high pressure over New England along with easterly upslope flow. Most of the showers are light to moderate in nature, with the axis gradually shifting southwest as drier air works in from the northeast. This dry air is leading to a break in the clouds across northeast Maryland, while mixing is more pronounced across portions of the Allegheny Highlands with the dissipation of morning fog/stratus. Clouds will be more persistent in between within the convergence axis. Today's shower and thunderstorm chances will stay mainly near and west of U.S. 15. As an upper low initially over western Tennessee should continue to shear on its eastward approach toward the Appalachian Mountains. Some added lift with the approach of this trough will work in conjunction with terrain circulations to aid in diurnal convective development. Weak shear profiles will limit any severe threat; however, there is a non-zero flood threat for locations hit by recent heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the Blue Ridge westward. Overall temperatures should stay fairly close to yesterday's numbers. Most can expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with slightly cooler readings in the mountains. Moving toward Thursday, all signs point toward an uptick in convection across the Mid-Atlantic region. The earlier mentioned upper trough across Tennessee is likely to push through during the core heating hours. With 500-mb winds approaching 30 to 35 knots, this will contribute to deep layer shear to around 30 knots. Steep low-level lapse rates are forecast to contribute to downdraft CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) near 1,000 J/kg. This would be supportive for some degree of damaging wind threat, particularly in the taller updrafts. As such, the Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Thursday from I-81 eastward to the Atlantic coast. A flash flood threat would accompany any slower moving convection or areas which see repeat activity. By Friday, this is likely to mark the warmest day of the week with high temperatures returning to the low 90s. However, for early/mid July standards, this is fairly close to climatology. Further storm chances arise, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours, as a trailing more pronounced shortwave nears the region. This system also drives a cold front through by early in the weekend. Until this occurs, will maintain higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. While convective-scale details vary among models, there is certainly a non-zero threat of flash flooding over the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler with less humidity over the weekend, but daily storm chances persist. On Saturday morning, the longwave pattern indicates a broad trough will begin to exit the Canadian Maritimes down along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This brings a slow moving cold front through the area on Saturday before the system settles over North Carolina by late in the weekend. Post-frontal northerlies will bring a gradual downtick in dew points and thus humidity levels. Depending on how quickly this front tracks through, some shower chances likely continue across the area for portions of the weekend. Daily temperatures fall in the post-frontal environment, generally running around 2 to 5 degrees below average. Highs each days should be in the low/mid 80s, with 70s across mountain locales. Heading into early next week, the synoptic-scale pattern features a broad ridge over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft should occur off to the east over the northeastern U.S. In this regime, box- and-whisker temperature plots show near to below average temperatures for early next week. Heigheights begin to build toward the middle of next week as the upstream ridge attempts to expand eastward. Temperatures likely return to the 90s as this occurs. Marine Typical summertime gradients should keep the marine waters free of any long-fused hazardous weather products (i.e., Small Craft Advisories). However, as usual, hazardous boating conditions will often be driven by convection, strong outflows/gust fronts, and frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday into Friday as a series of shortwave troughs move in from the west. Special Marine Warnings will be needed for the more robust thunderstorm activity. During this period, winds shift to southerly for Thursday with gusts up to around 10 to 15 knots. Thereafter, winds turn more westerly on Friday with a slight decrease in gusts. For the weekend, a cold front tracks through on Saturday which may support some hazardous marine conditions due to thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the north before shifting to easterly for the second half of the weekend. Gusts each day should top out around 10 to 15 knots. Tides / Coastal Flooding Light onshore (east to northeast flow) the next couple days followed by southerly flow will cause rising tides over the next couple of days. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline the second half of this week. Annapolis will likely reach the minor flood threshold this evening, and potentially Thursday evening. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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