Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Numerous Showers With Isolated Tstms This Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms This Afternoon With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt...Diminishing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Ne After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007am EDT Sat April 26 2025 Synopsis As low pressure tracks across interior New England, a cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure will settle in on Sunday into Monday before moving offshore. Another frontal system will affect the region during the middle of next week before meandering nearby into Thursday. This system eventually moves through the area by Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight Fairly widespread light showers are moving across the area, which are largely originating from a mid level deck. The back edge of this feature can be seen in a north-south line in satellite imagery pushing east of the Allegheny Mountains. Beneath this deck, clouds seem to be scattered to broken, especially east of the Potomac Highlands. This will likely allow for a little sunshine before the cold front arrives, which currently stretches from north central Pennsylvania to eastern Kentucky. All combined together, this points to areas south of DC having the longest period of (partial) sun and building instability before frontal convection arrives. A Marginal Risk for severe weather remains in place near and east of I-95. The main update to the forecast this morning will be to refine frontal timing and perhaps some temperature tweaks. Previous discussion: The main feature of interest is a strong closed low spinning over southern Ontario, with a mean longwave trough extending southward into the Upper Great Lakes region. Although the core of lower heights/cooler air aloft will stay north of the Mason- Dixon Line, the height falls alone should help spawn scattered to numerous showers across the area. Any threat for thunderstorms will largely be tied to the cold front itself, especially as it moves east of U.S. 15. Convective-allowing models from 00Z and 12Z (yesterday) continue to show a slew of 40 dBZ echoes per paintball plots. Given the moisture in place combined with cooling temperatures aloft, there should be around 1,000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to work with, particularly along and east of I-95. Vertical shear profiles are somewhat marginal, generally averaging 25 to 30 knots in the 0-6 km layer. The net of all these factors should support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon/evening. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts although an isolated severe hailstone cannot be ruled out. Any convective threats should wind down by just after dark. On the temperature side, today will provide another warm day with highs rising into the mid 70s to low 80s (60s across mountain locales). The mentioned cold front will aid in shower and thunderstorm development, but also a shift to gusty westerly winds in the wake. Expected gusts will largely range from 25 to 30 mph, locally up to 35 mph over the higher terrain. Winds remain elevated into the overnight hours although the cold advection pattern will still usher low temperatures down into the 40s, with mid/upper 30s across the mountains. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Winds remain breezy in nature while gradually shifting from westerly to northwesterly. The continued cold advection regime will make for a cooler finish to the weekend. Despite the cool down, temperatures do stay fairly close to climatology with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. The net gradient formed by the offshore cold front and Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain gusty winds through much of the day. Forecast gusts should again push into the 25 to 30 mph range, but this comes with a dry forecast and sunny skies. This dome of Canadian high pressure arrives Sunday evening before settling overhead early Monday. Radiational cooling effects should be more prominent on Sunday night owing to light winds and clear skies. Low temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 30s to 40s, with slightly cooler conditions over mountain locations. After a brief cool down, high pressure gradually exits the Atlantic coast on Monday which allows for a return flow to ensue. This helps bump temperatures back up a bit with highs returning to the low/mid 70s. Skies will again remain sunny given subsidence in the column. Southerly winds help raise temperatures into the overnight period as well with lows holding steady in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday as low pressure tracks well off to our northwest through the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. The system's trailing cold front will drop southward into the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at the surface behind the departing high and southwesterly flow at 850 hPa will transport a much warmer airmass into the area, with high temperatures expected to reach well into the 80s. Increasing low-level moisture and glancing height falls as the system passes to our northwest may lead to the development of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across western Maryland or the West Virginia Panhandle, but most locations are expected to remain dry. Low pressure is expected to rapidly track eastward across Quebec on Wednesday, with high pressure building to our north in its wake. This will push the aforementioned cold front southward through our area before the front eventually stalls out (likely to our south). Ensemble guidance still shows some uncertainty in the positioning of the front, but most solutions place it across southern portions of our area or off to the south. This uncertainty in the placement of the front leads to uncertainty with respect to forecast temperatures, as well as chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locations to the south of the front will likely make it into the 80s to near 90, while locations further north will only make it into the 60s and 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be relatively low, but increase the further south you go (since they have a better chance of ending up near the stalled front). Most guidance suggests that a trough will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest toward the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, potentially phasing with a shortwave in the northern stream tracking southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. As the resultant area of low pressure tracks to our northwest, this should cause the stalled front to our south to return northward as a warm front, leading to an uptick in temperatures and low-level moisture. With that increasing moisture, chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also increase moving into Thursday, and especially Friday. Many solutions show an appreciable overlap of CAPE and shear locally on Friday, suggesting that some stronger storms could be possible. However, uncertainty remains high this far out. Marine Small Craft Advisories remain in place for all waters, though conditions are a bit more localized and sporadic until better mixing can take place this afternoon. A strong cold front tracks across the area waters later this afternoon into the early evening. This may prompt the need for a Special Marine Warning or two. Behind these storms, a gusty west-northwesterly wind is expected with forecast gusts around 30 knots. Gale Warnings have been issued for the middle Chesapeake and lower Potomac tonight where confidence in multiple hours of such conditions is highest. However, brief 35 kt gusts can't be ruled out elsewhere. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for much of Sunday before winds drop off as Canadian high pressure moves in. Sub- advisory caliber winds are expected on Monday as southerly flow ensues. Winds may near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels within channeled southerly flow on Tuesday. Winds are expected to shift to out of the northwest on Wednesday, but some uncertainty remains regarding the positioning of a front and the resultant wind direction locally. Tides / Coastal Flooding Havre de Grace is currently in action stage, but future tide cycles are forecast to be lower at all locations. Behind a cold front early this evening, a west to northwesterly wind will quickly lower anomalies across the area. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ530-531-536- 538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ532>534-537-540>543. Gale Warning from 11pm this evening to 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ535. |
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