Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Rain And Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Snow With Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323pm EST Sat Jan 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisory for today have ended. Portions of the Small Craft Advisory for today were cancelled early. Confidence is increasing for snow on Sunday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Cecil and Harford Counties. While Sunday night through Tuesday night are still expected to be cold, wind chill values have been trending a little warmer. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A wave of low pressure will bring snow to parts of the area Sunday. - 2) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures continuing through the remainder of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A wave of low pressure will bring snow to parts of the area Sunday. Low pressure is located north of Lake Huron this afternoon, with a cold front trailing into the Ohio Valley. Earlier snow has departed with breaks of sun occurring across much of the area. Temperatures are making their way through the 40s to near 50 in these locations. Some showers ahead of the cold front are approaching the Allegheny Front. Given marginal temperatures and brief duration of showers, the earlier Winter Weather Advisory was canceled. As the front moves into the area tonight, a period of upslope snow may develop late this evening into the overnight. At this time, the most likely totals appear to be 2 inches or less, so no additional advisories are planned at this time. As the front moves eastward, mid and upper level dynamics will assist precipitation developing along and behind the boundary. Low pressure will develop along the frontal zone along the coast and ride northeastward through the day. This will be a tricky scenario as snow will be highly dependent on colder air catching up to the moisture, which is sometimes difficult to achieve and offset by dry advection. Temperatures will be colder sooner west of I-95, but these areas will likely see a shorter duration of precipitation. East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event, and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to overlap appears to be northeastern Maryland. Thus, confidence was high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area with the greatest potential for 2 inches of snow. However, if the afternoon wave of precipitation associated with the low misses to the south and east (which some models show), totals may fall short. Most other areas will see a slushy coating to an inch, perhaps locally higher where any banding sets up. Rates will be important to any sort of accumulations, especially as the day wears on, given marginal surface temperatures. Will have to monitor for possible expansions to the advisory, especially if confidence increases a colder solution near and east of the I-95 corridor. End time for the precipitation could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze. KEY MESSAGE 2...Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures continuing through the remainder of the week. Behind an Arctic front that crosses the region early on Monday expect very cold conditions to settle in for the start of the week. Well below normal temperatures are expected through at least Wednesday, with a slight reprieve on Thursday, then another reinforcing shot of cold air arrives for Friday. Highs are going to remain in the 30s to around 40F each day, with Tuesday being the coldest as the entire area remains below freezing during the daytime. It will be particularly cold Monday night and Tuesday night with lows in the single digits to teens. When factoring in the winds, expect wind chills to be in the single digits, with around -10F to -15F in the mountains. Again, the coldest wind chills are forecast for Monday night into Tuesday morning when a reinforcing upper trough and secondary cold front cross the area. By Thursday, the temperatures return to seasonal values of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. At this point in the week model guidance is some consensus in tracking a cold front across the area Thursday afternoon/evening. This could bring a slight rain/snow mix to parts of the area, though precipitation chances overall are low at 20-30 pct. Cold air surges in behind the front to close the week. Per the 12Z models and early ensemble guidance the synoptic pattern could become volatile for next weekend. A northern stream and southern stream system interact over the central CONUS, eventually pushing a deepening low pressure system and strong cold front across the Mid-Atlantic. Few details are certain beyond that, so continue to monitor the forecast through the upcoming week for what could be the next possible round of widespread wintry precipitation next weekend. Marine South to southwest winds only really became gusty on the waters surrounding southern Maryland, but even these winds are subsiding. Thus the Small Craft Advisory will be set to expire at 4 PM. Then, winds are expected to diminish into the evening in a weak pressure pattern ahead of a cold front. Lighter northwest winds are anticipated in the wake of the front late tonight, with a slight uptick possible for a time Sunday afternoon and evening as low pressure passes offshore. Marginal advisory conditions are possible during this time. This low is also expected to bring light snow or a rain/snow mix, which will reduce visibility over the waters on Sunday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely for MLK Day into Tuesday behind a strong arctic front. Northwest winds gust between 20-25 knots across all the waters, with gusts up to 30 knots possible Monday afternoon. Winds remain at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, then decrease below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday night. Another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is possible Wednesday afternoon. Freezing temperatures could result in ice buildup on the local waters, especially in the small tributaries. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 4am to 6pm EST Sunday for MDZ008-507-508. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Winter Weather Advisory from 4am to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543. |
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