Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Scattered Sprinkles This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 35 Kt... Diminishing To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Wed...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 205am EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Synopsis A warm front will bring increasing clouds, warmer temperatures and a few spotty showers to the area today. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight into Sunday leading to another round of gusty winds. A secondary front will follow Sunday night before high pressure briefly returns Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday into the middle of next week. Near Term - Through Tonight Deep layer northwest flow is evident over the Mid-Atlantic on the backside of an upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes. A separate upper low will dive into the Great Lakes through tonight, with an associated surface low moving into the Saint Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a warm front will develop and lift northeastward over the area today, followed by a cold front later tonight. Despite the forcing for ascent with the approaching trough and frontal system, meager moisture in the lower troposphere coupled with a downsloping/drying component to the low-level flow means that precipitation may be hard to come by east of the Eastern Continental Divide. A few sprinkles or a shower are possible as the warm front lifts through, with a couple of showers or even a rumble of thunder possible as the cold front swings by tonight. Otherwise, most of the time will just be cloudy with a light southeast to south wind becoming southwest. Along and west of the Allegheny Front, precipitation is more likely due to an upslope component to the low-level wind. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible especially toward evening, a few of which could enhance the gusty wind potential. As the front encroaches on the higher terrain (generally above 3000 feet), wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem likely at these higher elevations. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for tonight for western Grant and western Pendleton Counties. Elsewhere, winds will shift to the west with occasional 15 to 25 mph gusts for the lower elevations as the front crosses. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night The cold front should sweep offshore by early Sunday morning. A strong wind field in its wake, centered several thousand feet above ground level, will move over the region on Sunday. These blustery winds will be accompanied by very dry air. Pressure rises are strongest during the early morning hours Sunday when diurnal mixing is relatively unfavorable, though some occasional gusts to around 30 mph or so (40 mph at higher elevations, 50 mph at the highest peaks) seems likely. As diurnal mixing increases, gusts of 30 to 45 mph will become much more common by mid to late morning, with 45 to 55 mph gusts over/just downwind of the higher elevations. The current Wind Advisory may very well need to be expanded across the rest of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands (especially on the eastern downslope side), as well as the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, northern Maryland and far northern/northwestern Virginia. Confidence on achieving full mixing up to 4,000 feet above ground level where the 45-50 mph winds are remains low. However, a secondary pressure surge will move across the region later in the day into the evening Sunday in association with a secondary cold front. The gradient also strengthens with 45-55 mph winds lowering to within 2500-3000 feet of the surface. This may be the best opportunity for widespread advisory-level gusts outside of the higher terrain. Winds should gradually subside for much of the area Sunday night, though it will likely remain breezy for many areas well into the evening behind the secondary cold front. Other than a rogue shower near western Maryland, it looks dry Sunday into Sunday night. Over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies, winds may remain elevated well into the night and perhaps into Monday morning as well. Wind Advisories may need to be extended to cover this threat at a later time. Monday looks like another dry and breezy day, with gusts likely ranging anywhere from 25 to 40 mph depending on how deeply we mix and just how potent the residual wind field aloft is. Winds should finally abate Monday night as high pressure builds in. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday A low amplitude disturbance embedded in zonal flow aloft will rapidly approach from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Large scale ascent associated with this disturbance will lead to an increase in cloud cover, and will likely result in some light precipitation as well. Air may be just cold enough at the onset of precipitation for some snowflakes to mix in, especially at higher elevations. Some very light accumulations could be possible in the mountains Tuesday morning. The precipitation type should eventually switch over to rain for all as warmer air starts to work in from the west. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 40s to around 50, but could be a bit cooler if precipitation persists through much of the day. High pressure is expected to build to our north on Wednesday, resulting in dry conditions and light winds. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s beneath a mix of sun and clouds. Spread in model guidance becomes extremely large beyond Wednesday as a very complex weather pattern unfolds across the CONUS, with split flow and the potential for multiple cutoffs to develop. Ensemble guidance has high temperatures ranging anywhere from the upper 30s to the low 70s on Thursday and Friday. Depending on how the pattern develops, rain could be possible at times, but confidence in the forecast details remains very low this far out. Marine Light southeasterly flow is expected through this morning, becoming southerly to southwesterly through this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts by. A few sprinkles are possible. Tonight, a strong cold front swings across from west to east. This will first increase south/southwest winds into SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this evening, before switching to the west/northwest by morning. Although a few rogue gusts near gale force can't be ruled out with the immediate frontal passage early Sunday morning, the stronger winds are expected during the day as mixing and dry air advection increases. A secondary front could boost winds heading into late afternoon or early evening. For now, a Gale Watch covers waters north of North Beach MD and the upper tidal Potomac River, but may need to be extended/expanded based on trends in the exact timing and strength of the fronts. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts likely linger especially over the wider waters Sunday night. Additional breezy conditions are likely Monday, and could approach gale force again. Winds subside Monday night. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will vary in direction over the course of the day on Tuesday and should be predominantly out of the north on Wednesday. Fire Weather A brief reprieve from the low humidities is expected today as a warm front lifts through the region. This will be followed by a cold front tonight which could bring some light rain along with it. However, the chances for a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or more) seem pretty low at this time. Gusty westerly winds are expected Sunday in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Additionally, humidities will once again drop significantly as drier air moves in. Even drier conditions are expected Monday with a bit less in terms of wind. However, both days will pose a threat for adverse fire weather conditions, assuming the rain event tonight doesn't overperform. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...Wind Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Sunday for ANZ530>532-535-538>540. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ530>532-535-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543. |
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