Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Tstms With A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt...Becoming W Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft... Building To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt... Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. Rain After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Tornado Watch has been issued for northwestern parts of the forecast area until 8 PM. The severe weather threat has decreased most notably in southern portions of the forecast area. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Thursday evening. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two are possible through this evening. - 2) Strong frontal systems will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. - 3) Another strong cold front will arrive early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two are possible through this evening. Breaks in the clouds have been developing this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise to near records in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Moisture advection will likely counter mixing to hold dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The appearance of clouds still looks relatively stable, although some more convective cumulus are starting to bubble west of the Blue Ridge. Even though there are a few showers around, mid level capping and weak forcing will likely mean any severe weather threat arrives from upstream convection. The most immediate area to watch is across central West Virginia, although it's possible additional activity further westward in the Ohio Valley could play a role too. Shear is very strong, and there is enough instability for convection to cross the mountains. Straight hodographs would favor damaging winds and hail from splitting supercells. The tornado threat will likely be limited to the right splits or QLCS processes should any linear segments develop. That said, there is still uncertainty with how much activity actually occurs across our forecast area with most recent guidance fairly limited in coverage. Given the lack of forcing features and capping, it does appear the threat has decreased overall across southern portions of the forecast area (central Virginia-southern Maryland). A Tornado Watch has been issued for northwestern parts of the forecast area until 8 PM, which is forecast to have the greatest instability and is in closest proximity to upstream convection. Given the uncertainty of the southward and eastward extent of intense storms, conditions will be monitored over the next several hours to determine if expansions or an additional watch is needed. If storms reach the Baltimore/Washington metro area, it would likely be after 6 PM. While some additional convection could arrive in closer proximity to the cold front toward late evening/midnight, it will likely be in a weakening state, with severe weather unlikely after 10 PM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong frontal systems will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. The potent cold front will push across the area late tonight/early Thursday morning. Calendar day highs will likely occur at midnight or early in the day for many locations as temperatures fall rapidly behind the front and struggle to rise any through the day Thursday. A swath of showers will form along and behind the front, progressing eastward through the day Thursday. Coverage/duration may even expand east of the Blue Ridge in the right entrance to the upper jet and sharp mid level trough axis move through. With the rapid low level cold advection, many models continue to show this precipitation changing over to snow. This will likely be rate-based as near surface temperatures should still be well above freezing in the lower elevations. In addition, all the forcing is in the mid levels, with dry advection noted beneath in forecast soundings. Models are also often biased too cold in these post frontal downslope scenarios. So while some snow is possible as precipitation ends, impacts should be limited given the recent warmth. An inch or so of accumulation could occur in the higher elevations, especially the Blue Ridge where Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will likely be higher comparatively to the typical upslope areas. The other aspect of the front will be gusty northwest winds. Higher elevations could approach Wind Advisory criteria (40-50 mph). Winds diminish quickly Thursday evening as high pressure slides by to the south. Subfreezing low temperatures will return to much of the forecast area. Another low pressure system will be moving through the Great Lakes Friday. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty southwesterly winds. These winds could once again near Wind Advisory criteria in the higher elevations. There could also be fire weather issues due to low humidity (see separate section below). The cold front will push through Friday night with high pressure building in from the west Saturday. Little to no precipitation is expected, and the net effect will only have minimal impacts on temperatures. In fact, temperatures will likely remain slightly above average through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Another strong cold front will arrive early next week. A third cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front to result in numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Can't ruled out some severe weather due to the strength of the wind fields. Gusty winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment. Longwave trough pattern establishes across the East thereafter with strong surface high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than normal pattern for the middle and second half of next week. Marine Southerly winds have been slow to increase but will likely continue to tick up into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. Some thunderstorms may make their way towards the waters early this evening. Severity may be decreasing as they approach the waters towards sunset, but SMWs may be needed. Still a lot of uncertainty with coverage of storms and if they make it to the waters. A strong cold front will cross the waters late tonight into Thursday. This will lead to a sharp wind shift to the northwest. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected. Went with a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for now as the potential for gale force gusts appears to be rather brief immediately behind frontal passage. Winds should decrease fairly quickly Thursday evening. Ahead of the next cold front, southwesterly winds will increase Friday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely. While gusts could approach gale force, think the wind direction and relatively cooler waters will prevent the stronger winds from reaching the surface due to low level stability. The cold front will push through early Saturday morning. While some marginal advisory conditions may persist through the day, overall the westerly winds are forecast to be lighter. Another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is expected Sunday lasting through the middle of next week ahead and behind potent cold front forecast to cross the area Monday. Fire Weather Thursday through Saturday look concerning in regards to fire weather, especially Friday. However, the threat will be conditionally based upon how much rain the region receives this afternoon through Thursday morning. The current forecast precipitation amounts are around a quarter to half inch east of the Blue Ridge, with lower amounts to the west to the Allegheny Front. Higher amounts are expected west of the Allegheny Front, with 0.50 to 1 inches (additional) in the forecast. In between, specifically within the Shenandoah Valley and portions of the Potomac Highlands is where I'd be concerned about a bit of a rain shadow. Also, given the showery nature of this afternoon's potential activity, these amounts likely won't be realized at every given location. All this to say, while some areas could see enough rain to keep fuels damp through this upcoming windy period, many will not. Now, moving into Thursday afternoon, following a strong frontal passage winds will pick up substantially out of the WNW along with a sharp decrease in RH. Overall, the low level dry advection may be slightly delayed, but should still drop quickly in the afternoon west of the Blue Ridge. This will also be paired with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (20-25 at elevation) with gusts of 30 mph (45 mph at elevation). The sun will be out by late afternoon in these areas, but temperatures will actually be on the decline (mid 40s in the valleys, mid 30s on the ridges). This, paired with the recent rainfall, make Thursday less of a concern, but still worth noting for any ongoing fires. Friday is where the level of concern increases. Another strong, and this time dry, cold front will be approaching the region before moving through Friday night. Ahead of that, very strong southerly winds pick up. The air mass will also continue to be extremely dry, and could be locally enhanced in downslope flow west of the Blue Ridge. Current forecast has low to mid 20s RHs in the typical drier valleys. Given that the winds likely have dried things out substantially from any rain the day prior, this looks to be a concerning day in regards to fire weather. Future shifts may need to consider Fire Weather Watches. Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal passage from Friday night. RH values could drop into the teens across much of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will remain somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the interstate 66 corridor, where 15-25 mph winds can be expected. More analysis will need to be done to determine the threat for any headlines Saturday, but could see something being necessary on this day as well. Gusty winds but increasing RHs on Sunday ahead of another front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night. Less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-25 mph gusts). Climate Daily high records could be set again today. Below is a list of previous records for March 11. Washington DC (DCA) Date March 11 Record High 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 57F/2016 Washington-Dulles (IAD) Date March 11 Record High 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 49F/1967 Baltimore (BWI) Date March 11 Record High 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 53F/1955 Annapolis (NAK) Date March 11 Record High 74F/1967 Record Warm Low 52F/1986 Charlottesville (CHO) Date March 11 Record High 83F/1925 Record Warm Low 53F/2016 Martinsburg (MRB) Date March 11 Record High 78F/2021 Record Warm Low 49F/1955 Hagerstown (HGR) Date March 11 Record High 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 53F/2016 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) Date March 11 Record High 76F/1967 Record Warm Low 56F/2016 56F/1955 NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT Thursday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. |
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