Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 25 Kt...Becoming S Late. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Except Around 1 Ft Near The Mouth Of The Susquehanna. Rain, Freezing Rain And Snow This Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming W In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
240pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022
A rapidly strengthening low pressure will then move quickly from the Deep South across the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday into early Wednesday before a cold front crosses the region late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure briefly returns to finish out the work week before another area of low pressure may impact the region by Saturday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
The strong surface low that is impacting our region today is currently located over the Carolinas. The outer bands of precipitation associated with this system have started to shift into the region with snow being reported as far north as Frostburg, MD and as far east of St. Mary's County. Temperatures through this afternoon have been running a few degrees cooler than originally forecast with most areas still in the low to mid 20s. Up stream observations of snow have shown that that snow rates have been over performing with some observations close to 10 inches down near the NC/VA border. This morning I loaded in some higher snow ratios to account for the very cool layer during the onset of the snow. This adjusted snow totals up slightly and we have also upped our reasonable worst case scenario to highlight the potential that close to five inches could make its way into the I-95 corridor.
Snow should overspread all of our region by 21Z with light to moderate snow likely for most of the region through the early parts of the evening. A warm layer aloft should start moving into our region at 850 mb this evening leading to transition from snow to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for areas east of I-81. Areas along the I-95 corridor should start transitioning first between 5 and 8 pm this evening, with the warm layer continuing to push westward with the transition shifting over the shenadoah Valley by the 6 to 9pm period. The I-95 corridor should become all rain by the 7 to 9pm period as temperatures rise above freezing with the all rain layer likely reaching as far west as areas just east of I-81. Our high temperatures for Monday may very well occur around midnight or early Monday morning due to the warming on-shore flow. I believe the Allegheny front should remain mainly snow with periods of sleet and freezing rain mixing in at times this evening and into early Monday morning. Precipitation is expected to start tapering off early Monday morning between midnight and 2am with snow likely to continue along the Allegheny front into Monday.
A strong low level easterly jet is expected to form late this evening and into Monday evening. Winds of 35 to 45 mph's will be possible over our higher elevations with 25 to 35 knots possible else where. Continued light to moderate snow showers along the Allegheny front will combine with the strong winds to produce some near Blizzard like conditions along and west of the Allegheny Mtns. We have highlighted this threat in our WSW product. The overnight gusty winds should taper off by daybreak but gusts of 20 to 25 mph should continue into Monday morning.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Precipitation should end for most of the region by daybreak on Monday with the strong surface low starting to pull off to the northeast Monday morning. Wrap around snow bands along with upslope snow showers will continue along the Allegheny front through Monday. Another strong low level jet out the west is expected to form and impact the region late Monday morning and into Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest close to 40 to 45 knots will be possible in the mix layer especially in areas north of I-66. A Wind Advisory may needed for a good portion of our region with the best winds likely along the MD/PA border and areas along the Allegheny front. The continued snow showers along the Allegheny front throughout the day along with the strong winds may require the Winter Storm Warning along the Allegheny front to be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for Monday. That falls in the third period for me but I will pass along to our evening shift to make the call on the Blizzard Warning. Temperatures during the day will be below freezing for areas west of I-81 and in the 30s to lower 40s further eastward. I believe there should be little to no threat for refreeze as strong winds will dry the ground during the day. We may have refreeze concern for Monday evening and into Tuesday morning when temps are forecast to drop back down into the 20s.
Wrap around snow bands along with the threat for upslope snow should begin tapering off Monday evening with only a chance to slight chance for snow into early Tuesday morning. Dry conditions return Tuesday with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to cross the region Wednesday. There could be a few rain/snow showers along the front, but behind the front the winds will turn out of the northwest as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves back in. A period of upslope snow showers is possible briefly behind this front into Thursday morning. Yet another reinforcing shot of cold air moves in Thursday as Canadian high pressure builds across the region. Behind this front, a clipper system moves through the Ohio Valley and into the Allegheny Front. This could produce light snow accumulations for portions of the area. Ensemble guidance hints at the potential for another storm nearby to end the long term, while deterministic guidance keeps the storm just to the south. Expect fluctuations in this system given it is Day 7.
Temperatures moderating closer to average ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. Turning colder to end the week. Given the potential for several nigheights of well below freezing temperatures and daytime highs near or below freezing, ice on rivers is possible.
A strong coastal storm will lead to increasing winds out of east to southeast this evening leading to gales conditions through Monday morning. Gales conditions are likely to continue into Monday afternoon with Small Craft Conditions likely into Tuesday.
Winds could increase ahead/behind the cold front Wednesday and approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds could linger into Thursday along the wider waters of the Chesapeake.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A coastal low will result in widespread minor flooding with moderate flooding possible at the more sensitive locations as the system heads northeast into the region tonight into Monday, producing strong onshore flow. Tide levels then quickly drop later Monday as winds turn offshore.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Monday for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for DCZ001. MD...Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Monday for MDZ001-501. Winter Storm Warning until 7am EST Monday for MDZ003-004-502. Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for MDZ013-014-016. Coastal Flood Warning until 7pm EST Monday for MDZ014. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Monday for MDZ005-006- 008-011-503>508. Coastal Flood Warning from 9pm this evening to 4am EST Monday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Monday night for MDZ008-011-508. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Monday for VAZ503. Winter Storm Warning until 7am EST Monday for VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-501-504-505-507-508. Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for VAZ057. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Monday for VAZ052>056- 502-506. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for VAZ054. WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Monday for WVZ501-503-505. Winter Storm Warning until 7am EST Monday for WVZ050>053-055- 502-504-506.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Monday for ANZ530>543.