Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
High pressure will build into the area through Monday before sliding to the south and offshore on Tuesday. A weak trough may approach the region late in the day on Tuesday. A cold front will drop down into the region Wednesday and then stall over the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
High pressure will move from Michigan this morning towards the upper Ohio Valley by tonight. This will keep fair weather across the region today. After some seasonably chilly morning lows, temperatures will rise into the mid/upper 60s N/W and low 70s elsewhere. These temps will be about 5 degree below normal. Winds will be north to northwest around 10 mph with some gusts near 20 mph.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Monday
High pressure will continue to move slowly across the upper Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic region. A continuation of fair weather with mostly clear skies is expected across our region. Lows tonight will be about 5 degrees cooler than Sat night, so mercury readings will fall into the upper 30s/low 40s N/W and close to 50 for Delmarva and southern NJ. Winds will be mostly N at 5 mph or less.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
Overview: The long term will start cool and dry as a large area of high pressure builds over our region before shifting off shore. However, by Tuesday, we'll see a big shift in the overall pattern as the mid and upper level ridge which has been over the central U.S. will start building east before weakening and flattening. That will leave the Mid Atlantic with a mostly zonal pattern until next weekend, when a trough may try to dig south over the northeastern U.S. once again. At the surface, a front is expected to approach the region mid week, then stall over the Mid Atlantic through the remainder of the week.
Monday...Monday will be the most comfortable day of the week to be outside. We will still have the low humidity like what we will see today, and temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs mostly in the lower 70s. Some models do show a weak low level trough impending on the large area of high pressure which could lead to showers especially over northern NJ and E Central PA. However, I kept the forecast dry as dewpoints should still be in the 30s and 40s, and we should generally see northwesterly low and mid level flow, which means there will be very limited moisture even if the trough does develop.
Tuesday...As the surface high shifts off shore, low level southwesterly return flow develops leading to moisture advection, and setting the stage for rain chances later in the week. The southwesterly flow will also help start a warming trend, although the mid and upper level trough which will be stubbornly sticking around for one more day, will keep temperatures near normal. A shortwave trough digging on the back side of the main mid/upper level trough could be enough to result in showers, though it remains to be seen if this shortwave trough will track close enough to our region to result in rain for us. Therefore, kept the rain chances limited to 20 to 40 percent with this period.
Wednesday...At this point, Wednesday looks like the most uncomfortable day of the week. The cold front is not expected to arrive until Wednesday night, keeping our region in the prime location for moisture advection (with dew points possibly getting in to the 60s) and warm air advection for one more day. In fact, a lot of guidance has the coastal plains in the upper 80s to near 90 (significant as we have yet to have any 90 degree days at any of the climate sites in our area this year). We may not see much in the way of rain during the day on Wednesday as we likely won't have much in the way of lift until the front gets closer to our area.
Thursday through Saturday...The front that approaches our region Wedensday night is expected to stall as the mid and upper level pattern transitions to a zonal flow pattern. The extent and timing of showers and thunderstorms through this period will depend on exactly where the front stalls. For now, I have stayed close to the previous forecast, with a broad brush of slight chance to chances of showers and storms through out the period. However, it is very unlikely that this will be a washout, and if the front stalls far enough south, northern portions of our region, may not see much rain at all (with the exception of when the front initially arrives).
Fair weather is expected today and tonight with high pressure across the waters. A few SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts are possible this morning, but overall conditions will be sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) both today and tonight. Winds will be from the north/northwest today and north/northeast tonight. Seas on the ocean mostly 3 to 4 ft while across Del Bay seas will be 1-2 ft north and 2 to 3 ft south.
Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria.
Rip Currents... A northwest wind is expected for Sunday with breaking waves around 2 feet. As a result, there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.
The wind is forecast to back toward the southwest on Monday. Breaking waves should again be around 2 feet. The low risk is expected to continue into Monday.
Relative humidity values could drop to 30 percent by this afternoon (especially across the coastal plains of NJ and DE), and wind gusts up to and in excess of 20 MPH are expected today. This could lead to elevated fire weather concerns.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.