Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw This Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. |
| Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 148pm EDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Mostly tranquil today and tonight. 2. A system moves in Monday into Monday night bringing the threat for heavy rainfall with an associated flooding risk along with at least some threat for severe weather. KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly tranquil today and tonight. High pressure well to the south/west across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken today. It will provide mostly dry weather and comfortable temperatures today and tonight. There is one more weak shortwave in the west to northwest flow aloft and it will likely result in some additional showers or a low-topped thunderstorm in the northern areas again this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...A system moves in Monday into Monday night bringing the threat for heavy rainfall with an associated flooding risk along with at least some threat for severe weather. Forecast guidance continues to indicate an unsettled start to the week with low pressure impacting the area but there remain differences in the details of how all this will play out. The main question continues to be the exact track of the low, which will have notable consequence on specific impacts. The main takeaway though is that is that most areas will see at least some showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening, potentially even lasting into the overnight. Consensus guidance shows PWAT (Precipitable Water) values (1.75- 2.00") near the climatological maxima, setting up the risk for heavy rainfall. NBM probabilities for 1+ inches of rain with the system are in the 60-80 percent range for areas along and north of the I-95 corridor and generally in the 25 to 50 percent range farther south. For 2+ inches, these probabilities are as high as 30 to 50 percent over NE PA into NW NJ, generally around 10 to 25 percent near the I-95 corridor, and less than 10 percent farther south. It is worth noting though that forecast models notoriously struggle with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, especially when it involves convection. Looking at the different deterministic models, there are indications that some parts of our area could see 2-3+ inches of rain but the question is not just if this occurs but if so, where. If the low tracks farther north, this would tend to keep the heaviest rain generally favored for NE PA into NW NJ with more of a severe weather threat south of these areas. However a track farther south near Delmarva / SE PA / southern NJ could unfortunately mean that the heaviest rain would be targeted near the I-95 corridor. We're still in a region-wide drought though so that could mitigate the flood threat some. At this time the Weather Prediction Center has areas from the I-95 corridor northward in a SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall meaning scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Farther south, the risk is MARGINAL (level 1 out of 4) meaning any flash flooding will be more isolated if it occurs. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5) for areas south of Philadelphia with a MARGINAL risk (level 1 out of 5) for areas north of there regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms. As of now, damaging wind gusts are the primary threat however will need to watch the track of the low and warm front as shear profiles will be stronger near it, although instability is still more uncertain. In terms of timing, the trend is for the system to be a bit slower meaning showers/storms may not really move in until the afternoon but would linger through the evening and potentially overnight as well. The severe weather threat should be diminishing through the evening but the flood thread may last into the overnight. Tuesday still looks like it could see some additional showers and storms, more scattered in nature, due to the system's slower movement with a final piece of the upper level trough moving through. This should be focused near and S/E of the urban corridor with the severe weather and flash flooding threat looking low by this time. Marine Mostly fair weather expected through tonight. A brief shower possible. Outlook... Monday through Monday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in effect with southerly wind gusts increasing to around 30 kt with seas 4 to 7 feet. Tuesday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions could linger early. Wednesday through Thursday...Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Rip Currents... For today, westerly winds diminish to around 10 mph, becoming southwesterly tonight. Onshore swells will remain weak around 1 to 2 feet with a 7 second period. Breaking waves in the surf zone will be around 1 foot or less. Therefore, a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast for all beaches on Sunday. For Monday, south-southeasterly winds will increase to around 15-20 mph. South-southeasterly onshore swells will increase to around 2 to 3 feet with a 6 second period. Breaking waves in the surf zone will generally be 1 to 3 feet. There, a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast for all beaches except Delaware Beaches where the breaking waves in the surf zone will generally be 1 to 2 feet that will lead to a LOW risk for development of dangerous rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455. |
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