Marine Weather Net

Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ450 Forecast Issued: 1002 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Rest Of Today...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Isolated Showers And Tstms Late This Morning. Scattered Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon, Then Numerous Showers And Tstms Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Widespread Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tue...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Fri Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
959am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front tonight. Weak high pressure builds through the region Tuesday. Low pressure passes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure returns to close out the week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
The last few storms of the initial round (associated with the warm front) are along the coast of NJ as of 10 AM. These should move off shore soon. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough is approaching our region from the west. This is expected to be the next focus for shower and storm development within the next hour. The cold front approaches late in the afternoon, and then the third round of storms develops. However, in looking at the latest convective allowing models, there may be little lull between the second and third rounds. No major changes in the hazards expected with the storms this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, it will be warm and quite humid. Southerly flow will usher surface dew points well in the upper 60s to low 70s along with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, and in the mid 80s in Delmarva.

SB CAPE values will be upwards of 2000 J/kg by this evening, and even up to 1500 J/kg of Downdraft CAPE. Highest instability values will be over Delmarva and into portions of southeast Pennsylvania. 0- 6 km Bulk Shear will generally be around 30 to 40 kt, though in the evening, Bulk Shear values will be 20 to 30 kt in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey before rising to 30 to 40 kt with the approach of the cold front. It does look like an area of 40 to 50 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear will pass south of Delmarva. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be up around 2 inches.

Although heavy rain is a threat throughout the region, given the lower shear values across northern areas, there is a higher potential for bands of heavy rain to develop across areas north and west of the Fall Line. In these areas, the Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.

The Storm Prediction Center now has the whole region in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and even large hail. Although given the relatively warm boundary layer, the risk for hail is not as high as the risk for damaging wind gusts. Cannot rule out the tornado threat, especially in the vicinity of the cold front, but if the instability is elevated, that should help to limit the tornado threat.

The bulk of the activity should be well east of the region before midnight tonight, and then the initial cold front will pass through the region in the predawn hours.

Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
Initial cold front will be offshore Tuesday morning, and then a secondary cold front passes through by midday. Although the air mass will not necessarily be cooler behind the secondary cold front, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity levels as surface dew points drop from the upper 60s/low 70s on Monday to the upper 50s/low 60s on Tuesday. Some shortwave energy passes through the region in the afternoon as the base of an upper trough sets up over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. This may touch off isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly for the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. PoPs will mostly be confined to slight chance, though Probability of Precipitation may touch low end chance in far northwest portions of Carbon and Monroe counties. Highs will be a touch above normal levels, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

That upper trough will be over the Northeast/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic for the mid-week period. Shortwave energy will dive into the base of the trough Tuesday night, and surface low pressure develops over the Appalachians. This low will the pass through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers will become likely along with scattered thunderstorms for most of the area Wednesday. With highs generally in the mid to upper 70s and dew points mainly in the mid to upper 50s, SB CAPE looks to be minimal, generally up around 500 J/kg and highest 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be 35-45 kt, mainly over southern New Jersey and Delmarva. So while thunderstorms are possible, there does not look to be a widespread severe weather outbreak at this time. Showers taper off Wednesday night as low pressure departs.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Another shortwave passes through the region on Thursday, but the area will be fairly moisture-starved, so not expecting much more than isolated showers or even a thunderstorm. The Long Term period should mostly be dry as surface high pressure builds over the area. Upper trough departs over the weekend and will be replaced by mid- level ridging. Conditions should remain dry into the weekend with the next system approaching early in the new week.

Cooler Thursday and Friday with below normal temperatures, and then temperatures return to normal levels over the weekend.

Marine
Fog has mostly dissipated for now. May see patchy fog redevelop later in the day, but not expected to be as persistent or dense as what we have seen. Thus, allowed the dense fog advisory to expire.

Small Craft Advisory for the NJ ocean waters for this afternoon and the first half of tonight for as winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. For DE ocean waters and DE Bay, S winds will average 15 to 20 kt. Winds turn W around 10 kt late tonight.

Thunderstorms will impact the waters with potentially damaging winds and large hail later today and tonight.

Outlook... Tuesday through Friday...Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through the week. VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms expected on Wednesday.

Rip Currents... S to SE winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt along the NJ coast. This will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for NJ beaches. Since winds will be a bit lighter at DE beaches, the rip current risk there remains LOW.

For Tuesday, winds will shift to more of a W to SW flow. There will continue to be a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents at NJ beaches and a LOW risk at DE beaches.

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches this holiday weekend if venturing out into the water.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>453.