Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog Early This Morning. Rain Early This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Morning. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Decreasing To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324am EST Sat Jan 16 2021
A cold front will move across the area this morning. Meanwhile, a low will form over Delmarva and lift along New Jersey and into New England through the morning. Another cold front moves across the region tonight. High pressure returns for the start of the new week, and then a series of weak low pressure systems will pass through the region for the middle and later parts of the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Upper-air analysis at 00z indicated a broad upper-level low in the Great Lakes region with a strengthening jet streak from the Gulf Coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Difluent midlevel flow downstream of an intense 500-mb jet streak (100+ kt) encompassed much of the Appalachians and Northeast, with strong warm/moist advection in the lee of the higher terrain. Widespread precipitation was occurring in this region, with a band of convective showers along the leading edge of stronger advection now in southern New England. In our area, light to moderate (stratiform) rain was occurring in the regions of broad warm advection and midlevel cyclonic vorticity advection. At the surface, low pressure was in the developing stage near or just off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic and should continue to intensify today. However, this will occur as it progresses quickly northeastward, so precipitation will likely be ending shortly after daybreak across the area. There may be a few breaks in cloud cover, but this will be short-lived as low- level mixing and cold air aloft will generate considerable cloud cover by afternoon.
As the upper low moves through the region through this evening, embedded perturbations within the large-scale trough will likely generate regions of lift and potentially some showers. The best chances of this for our area are in the Poconos, via favorable northwest flow and in central/southern Delmarva, downstream of a potent vort max moving through this afternoon. Impacts in each of these areas should be minimal, but would not be surprised to see some brief reductions in visibility in light snow in the Poconos. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for liquid in Delmarva, but cannot rule out a flurry or two. Chances of measurable precipitation seem quite low, so only slight-chance to chance Probability of Precipitation appear warranted. Any precipitation should taper off late this evening and tonight, with even some potential for some clearing.
There is little spread in guidance for highs today, so used a consensus blend. The result is highs in the 30s for the Poconos and the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Lows tonight are a little less certain, as cloud cover and elevated winds may preclude substantial radiational cooling. For now, have temperatures mainly near to slightly below freezing, but would not be surprised if lows end up a little warmer.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
A dry period with weak ridging aloft Sunday and a short wave trough sweeping through Monday. Maybe a few flurries far N/W, but not in the grids attm. Seasonable temps with gusty daytime winds with gusts 15 to 25 mph both days.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
The last remnants of the large upper low will have past off to the east/northeast by Tuesday morning with a mostly zonal upper flow across the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Surface high pressure will be to the south but ridging up into our area. This means a dry forecast for Tuesday and into Wed. Clouds will be increasing Wednesday however with the next system pushing towards the area. Temperatures will be a little above normal Tuesday and close to normal Wed.
As the week wears on, the next disturbance moves SE out of the Canadian prairies and turns across the Great Lakes. The GFS has the clipper-like system pushing N of the area later Thu then into New England Thu night/Fri. The low pressure is rather strong, but with a north track, a mostly rain event is foreseen for our region with perhaps some snow at the onset, any maybe some accum snow for the N/W-most areas. The feature is rather disorganized, so just some chance probability of precipitation were kept in the forecast for Thu/Thu night attm. I'm sure we'll see various solutions as the weekend/early next week wear on. Temperatures look above normal Thu, close to normal Fri, then back to below normal for Sat.
A brief lull in advisory conditions is occurring on the New Jersey coast early this morning, as the stronger winds have moved east of the area. However, seas are expected to build quickly this morning and will likely be near or slightly above 5 feet much of today and tonight. Meanwhile, as winds become more westerly today, speeds will increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, with conditions spreading southward with time. Eventually, gusts should exceed criteria on Delaware Bay, likely some time this evening.
A small craft advisory is in effect for the New Jersey coastal waters today and tonight, for the Delaware coastal waters this afternoon and tonight, and for Delaware Bay this evening and tonight.
Rain will continue through the early morning before tapering off by midday. Some visibility restrictions are possible early this morning.
Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag Sunday will probably be lowered during the evening and winds and seas subside. Fair.
Monday through Wednesday...Winds and seas occasionally rise to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Fair weather expected.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am this morning to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.