Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers This Evening. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers After Midnight. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 756pm EDT Wednesday September 24 2025 Synopsis A stationary front is located over the area today. The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight before a cold front passes through late Thursday and Thursday night. Broad high pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday into early next week. Near Term - Through Thursday Night A stationary boundary lies north of the region. Showers will gradually spread northward into the region this evening. Overall, these showers will be light in nature though much of the evening hours. After midnight, a more concentrated area of development of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected overnight. This area will mainly be focused over eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey as the stationary boundary lifts back north as a warm front ahead of the main surface low located over the Ohio Valley and its associated cold front. Some patchy fog is possible as well, especially in areas near the warm front. Lows will be quite mild, mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s. For Thursday, the area will be settled well within the warm sector so another day of the seasonably warm and humid airmass is in store. Morning rain is likely to continue especially over eastern PA and northern NJ, with more in the way of showers expected elsewhere through mid-day. As a result, highs are only expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, as upstream thunderstorm complexes will cast clouds over the area for much of the day. Perhaps some clearing is possible, especially over southern Delaware in the afternoon, where temperatures may top into the mid 80s. Come Thursday afternoon and evening, attention will focused on a pre-frontal trough advancing from the west out ahead of the main cold front. While there is expected to be a brief lull in activity mid-day, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mid-late afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Forecast soundings suggest up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible with 0-6 km bulk shear values up to 40-45 kts. While this type of environment is more than enough to observe severe weather when skies are clear; the substantial cloud cover expected much of the day may hinder/limit this potential. However, if skies do clear more than anticipated, there is a higher ceiling to the severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a MARGINAL risk for severe weather across our entire area with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. There is also a conditional tornado risk, with a low CAPE/moderate shear environment as hodographs are curved in the low-levels despite the lack of deep instability. Rainfall totals through Thursday night will average between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Shower and storm coverage should dwindle overnight Thursday as the cold front sweeps across the area from west to east by Friday morning. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night High pressure will be building in from the west behind a passing cold front on Friday. There may be some lingering showers along the coastal locations however for most of the forecast area, it should be a dry day. Afternoon highs will remain seasonably warm in the lower 80s heading into the weekend. For the weekend, a weak surface trough will be located just to the south offshore. This will lead to the potential for some lightly scattered showers across DelMarVa and southern NJ but heavy rainfall is not currently anticipated. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Heading into the workweek, a broad upper ridge will be located over the central US with at least one low pressure system well offshore. NHC is monitoring two potential invests for tropical cyclone development. Given the temporal range of the forecasts, we dont currently know much what the impacts or details of the tracks will be. NHC's key messages verbatim say "the close proximity of these systems could lead to interaction between them, and the details of their long-range track and intensity forecasts... are more uncertain than usual". Given the significant uncertainty, the forecast will keep with a persistence forecast with modest 20-40% chances of rain for Monday - Wednesday d a general lowering of temperatures trend through the middle of the week. We'll continue to monitor the systems for any potential impacts and adjust the forecasts as confidence increases in at least some viable solution. Marine No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday. South winds around 10-15 kt through tonight with seas of 3-4 feet. On Thursday, south winds increase to around 15-20 kt with seas of 3-4 feet. A few sporadic gusts up to 25 kt possible, but confidence is not high enough to warrant SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday. Outlook... Thursday night through Sunday...No marine headlines currently expected. A change (30-40%) of showers with a small chance (10-20%) embedded thunderstorms possible each day. Rip Currents... For Thursday...Decided that MODERATE for both NJ/DE waters looked good for Thursday. The overall swell is still onshore, but decreasing. Waver periods of around 10 seconds are less than on Wednesday. Winds will increase notably during the afternoon, which could locally enhance conditions, but confidence for any higher category is low (but not zero). For Friday...chose the MODERATE risk for NJ waters and LOW for Delaware waters with the Wednesday evening update. The wind pattern behind the departing low looks to bring winds mostly offshore and rather light for much of of the day. Swell continue to lower as offshore storms move further away from our waters. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. Marine None. |
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