Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Until Early Morning. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms Late. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms Until Early Morning. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft After Midnight.|
|Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
151pm EDT Sat May 21 2022
A Bermuda high pressure pattern will develop for Saturday and Sunday with the Mid Atlantic region on the northwestern periphery of the high. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night as low pressure passes to our northwest, with the front slowly settling offshore on Monday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday, then a frontal system may approach the area later next week.
Near Term - Through Sunday
With abundant sunshine on tap for the rest of the day, temperatures will continue to soar into the 90s. Surface dew points remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s, but with increased heating, dew points should lower by several degrees into the mid and upper 60s.
There has been little change in the temperature forecast, with the longstanding idea of a very hot day remaining intact. The general idea with the latest update was that max temperatures generally dropped a degree or two, while dew points were nudged up a little, rendering essentially no change to the heat index forecast. These were largely cosmetic changes, but were made in consideration of what happened on Friday. With fairly widespread rainfall, there is more leftover moisture to contend with, likely leading to a greater than previously expected latent heating versus sensible heating component today. This could keep the temperatures just a bit lower and also cause them to rise more slowly, especially in northern portions of the area where fog is a factor this morning. But it will also increase the humidity, again especially in northern areas. So widespread heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 are still expected. No changes were made to the Heat Advisory. While there is a large amount of elevated instability present today, a strong capping inversion will assure a dry forecast.
Tonight continues to look very mild also. With the dew points staying up and a light southerly flow continuing, lows will only fall into the upper 60s and low 70s, providing little relief from the daytime heat. There may be a bit of patchy fog again tonight such as near the coast and/or in the typically prone valleys. But the signal is much weaker than Friday night, and for now, have opted to leave the mention out.
Another hot day is expected on Sunday as a cold front approaches the region from the west. The temperature forecast for Sunday is rather tricky as a lowering in highs is forecast, but how much relief from the heat is still somewhat uncertain. In the mid- levels of the atmosphere, the 500 MB sub-tropical ridge will begin to decay and be shunted southeast. At the same time though, compressional warming ahead of the approaching cold front can bee seen with only a modest decrease in 1000/850 MB thicknesses forecast. The biggest question for Sunday will be how quickly the cold front and associated convection takes to arrive. The upper level disturbance responsible for the cold front will also be heading rapidly northeast and shearing out. This type of setup usually favors a slower cold front passage. Given the above, have kept high temperatures above guidance or lower 90s for most of the area Sunday. This puts heat index values right at criteria for the Urban Corridor Sunday. Since this is the first heat event of the season, will go ahead and extend the heat advisory through Sunday.
Late Sunday afternoon into evening a surface cold front will progress east through the region triggering showers and thunderstorms. Mean 850/ 300 MB flow is rather weak with the cold frontal passage at only about 20/30 kts. Instability on the other hand is rather robust with ML CAPE values of ~2000 J/kg. These higher CAPE values are greatest across eastern PA though, with instability decreasing towards the NJ coast. Thanks to the relatively weak steering flow and shear values, mostly multicells are expected. The primary threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts (thanks to the potentially high equilibrium levels and modest DCAPE values) and heavy rainfall.
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
Any thunderstorms with the cold front will move offshore early Sunday night. The front will settle into Virginia and North Carolina as a much cooler and less humid airmass settles over the region Sunday night through Monday night with dewpoints in the 40s.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
The long term forecast remains on track per the latest model guidance.
A general warming trend in temperatures is expected through the long term period as mid-level heigheights again start to rise across the eastern United States. Meanwhile, across the western United States heigheights will rapidly fall as an upper level low begins to wrap up on Tuesday. The upper level low will slowly approach the area by Friday with precipitation chances slowly rising by the end of the period.
Surface high pressure will be centered over southern Quebec on Tuesday with a boundary remaining across North Carolina. There may be a few showers across southern Delaware with the front to the south.
On Wednesday, the surface high pressure over Quebec will slowly start to translate towards the Canadian Maritimes and then offshore. The upper level low over the western United States will be well on its way east towards the Ohio River Valley Thursday and Friday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over MO will head north towards MI with a warm front moving northward across the area Thursday. The closed upper level low will then begin to become absorbed back into the upper level flow and track northeast. As this occurs, another cold front will approach the area from the west bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region Thursday and Friday. All precipitation moves offshore Friday night with a tranquil day in store for Saturday as surface high pressure builds back into the region.
Marine Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect until 1 pm has been cancelled as fog has lifted.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected. South-southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Some gusts near to a little above 20 kt are possible especially this evening and early tonight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Outlook... Sunday and Sunday night...Winds and waves mostly remain below advisory levels through the period. However, winds could approach advisory levels for a brief period Sunday afternoon/evening. Wind will be south to southwest Sunday, shifting to north behind the cold front.
Monday - Wednesday
No marine headlines are currently anticipated. Offshore winds early on Monday, becoming onshore later Monday into Tuesday and through midweek. Seas of 2 to 4 ft expected.
Thursday...Winds and waves below small craft advisory levels with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Rip Currents... There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches today and Sunday.
A hot and humid air mass is forecast to overspread the region this weekend. The hottest day will be Saturday. Here is a list of the high temperature records for Saturday and the record high temperatures for the month of May.
Locations 5/21 Record High Temps May Record High Temps --------- ---------------------- ---------------------
Philadelphia, PA 95 in 1934 97 in 1991 Reading, PA 96 in 1996 96 in 1996/ 1962 Allentown, PA 92 in 1934 97 in 1962 Mount Pocono, PA 87 in 1911 94 in 1911 Trenton, NJ 94 in 1934 99 in 1986/ 1911 Atlantic City (airport), NJ 93 in 1996 99 in 1969 Atlantic City (marina), NJ 85 in 1934 95 in 1925/ 1895 Wilmington, DE 95 in 1996 98 in 1895 Georgetown, DE 94 in 1996 98 in 1991
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
Heat Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for PAZ101-103-105. NJ...
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for NJZ008-010-012-015- 017>019.
Heat Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for NJZ009-013-020- 027. DE...
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for DEZ001. MD...None.