Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Sw With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323pm EST Tuesday Nov 30 2021
A weak cold front arrives late tonight and Wednesday morning, then it moves back north as a warm front Wednesday night into early Thursday. As low pressure tracks to our north, its cold front moves into our area Thursday night into Friday. Weak low pressure along the front will be in our vicinity Saturday before high pressure builds in Sunday. The next system should arrive Sunday night into Monday with high pressure returning Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
Light snow and/or rain showers continue to move off to the northeast this afternoon after an underwhelming, though expected taste of winter weather. Above, a modest upper-level jet will further move offshore through the overnight, taking the large-scale ascent responsible for today's precipitation with it. Mostly cloudy conditions will persist through the evening as a weak warm front slowly lifts off to our north. The trend has been slower with this front with winds taking a bit longer to transition to the southwest from the southeast, but most locations have seen this transition. This will result in slightly warmer lows tonight generally sitting just on either side of the freezing mark. Winds will be light and variable.
Slightly warmer Wednesday with weak warm air advection taking shape over the Mid-Atlantic. With dry air over the region and a weak mid-level ridge overhead, a mostly sunny and quiet day is in store.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night
Summary...Milder air returns Thursday as a storm tracks well to our north. Some very light precipitation is expected for a time Wednesday night into early Thursday for parts of the area, then perhaps a few showers Thursday afternoon and evening with a cold front.
The continuation of strong northwesterly flow aloft will drive another clipper-type system just north of the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, then north of New England through Thursday night. A warm front will develop northward in advance of this system, with it lifting northward across our area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Low-level warm air advection will increase some Wednesday night along with some strengthening of a low-level jet. Temperatures should hold steady or even slowly rise overnight Wednesday, although this could be delayed some for the far northern areas given the lingering low-level dry air.
While moisture is limited, enough forcing for ascent should result in some very light precipitation especially from about the I-78 corridor on northward. The highest Probability of Precipitation are in the Pocono region. An examination of the model forecast soundings indicate moistening from the top down, however dry air remains closer to the surface. This should delay precipitation onset especially given the expected light rates. However, cooling of the column with time should result in some snow before some warming occurs. There could also be some ice pellets mixed in during the warming process aloft due to lingering dry air closer to the surface. As the warming occurs, the mid levels start to dry out and that may shut off the precipitation or could result in some brief drizzle or freezing drizzle (mainly the far north). There also becomes a lack of ice nucleation for a time and if precipitation is still ongoing and surface temperatures are still near or just below freezing, could result in some very light freezing rain. This potential looks to be short-lived and mostly across the Pocono region. Any snow and/or ice accumulations are expected to be very light. Farther south, perhaps a little bit of a chilly rain may occur.
For Thursday, any warm air advection induced precipitation should end early then some showers cannot be ruled out in the afternoon and evening as a cold front arrives. This front looks rather moisture starved and therefore Probability of Precipitation remain rather low and mostly across the northern areas. The main warm sector should surge into at least the I-95 corridor on south and eastward allowing many places to near 60 degrees or even into the lower 60s. Northwest of the Fall Line, the more warmer air may struggle to get to the surface especially if enough evaporative cooling took place Wednesday night to set up a local cold air damming scenario.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
Summary...Mostly quick moving systems within the active northern stream; temperatures mostly at or just below average.
Synoptic Overview...Fast moving flow associated with the northern stream near the US-Canadian border may amplify some into the East at times. The amplification will be driven by the timing and strength of the train of shortwaves. The guidance has tended to amplify some shortwaves farther out in time, then when it gets closer the shortwave ends up weaker/flatter and more progressive. At the surface, a front should be positioned to our south Friday with another one to our north. Some energy should result in a weak surface low along the southern front through Saturday, then potentially a stronger system associated with the Canadian trough looks to cruise across the Great Lakes to the Northeast later Sunday and Monday. The associated front remains to our south, however the next system is forecast to already be moving into the Great Lakes region from the Midwest Tuesday.
For Friday and Saturday...An upper-level trough in the Northeast to Mid-Atlantic regions remains, however the strongest part of it is in eastern Canada. This takes low pressure into the Canadian Maritimes Friday with the first cold front well off of our coast. A secondary cold front should be working into our northern areas during Friday, before settling southward some Friday night as weak high pressure slides by. A weak surface low may travel along the front and be in our vicinity Saturday, however precipitation chances are less certain given the weak nature of the system and also the quick motion. Temperatures Friday should rise into the lower 50s for the southeastern areas with some cooling taking place Saturday.
For Sunday through Tuesday...The fast flow aloft continues with surface high pressure sliding across our region Sunday. The forecast challenge this far our is how the incoming shortwave energy interacts or amplifies the next trough in the Plains to the Great Lakes. Some guidance phases it resulting in a deepening low near the upper Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. Some other guidance is not as robust with this and therefore has some weaker energy ejecting out ahead it. Given the guidance has tended to be to robust so far at this time range (as it gets closer), went with the more progressive guidance for now. This results in another system cruising nearby with a cold front arriving Monday then high pressure follows into Tuesday.
Winds out of the west-southwest gusting to 25 knots through 7pm on the southern Atlantic waters will continue.nue to warrant an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag. Wind gusts generally around 20 knots on the northern Atlantic zones and Delaware Bay. Winds gusts will increase to 25 knots tonight over the northern Atlantic zones, with an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) going into effect from 7pm through 7 AM. Wind gusts generally 20 knots or less over the Delaware Bay and southern Atlantic waters tonight. Seas from 2 to 4 feet through tonight over all the waters.
Sub-advisory conditions anticipated for Wednesday with west- southwest winds from 15 to 20 knots and seas from 2 to 3 feet.
Outlook... Wednesday night...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Thursday And Friday
Small Craft Advisory conditions probable, diminishing later Friday.
Saturday and Sunday...The conditions should be mainly below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ453>455.