Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain. |
| Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322pm EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Synopsis High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front approaches on Friday but will be overtaken by a cold front Friday night. This front will stall overhead as low pressure tracks along it on Saturday. A pair of cold fronts will push through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds to the south of the region early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight High pressure centered along the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon will push offshore tonight. Cirrus clouds of varying density have overspread the area, and this pattern will continue through tonight. The timing of any such breaks in the clouds could impact temperatures and allow them to drop into the lower 30s. Otherwise readings will mainly be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Likewise, some patchy fog could develop if there are sufficient breaks in the clouds. By the second half of the night, a low level jet will start to spread into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving into the upper Great Lakes. This could result in some 35-40 mph gusts in the higher elevations. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night As low pressure continues northeast from the Great Lakes on Friday, a warm front will attempt to lift into the area. At the same time, some low level moisture will advect in from the southwest, which could result in low clouds developing. There is still considerable model disagreement on if and where these clouds develop. Any persistent low level clouds during peak heating (which hi-res guidance suggests will be east of the Blue Ridge) could limit temperatures to the lower to mid 50s. Especially west of the Blue Ridge, the stronger southerly winds aloft will be more likely to mix down, and some locations will likely reach the lower to mid 60s. As the airmass saturates, a band of showers will gradually progress eastward across the area coincident with the low level jet between late morning and early evening. The cold front trailing the low will move in from the northwest during the evening. A band of showers will likely be ongoing along the front, but may largely fall apart crossing the mountains. Thus most areas should see some dry time during the evening. The cold front will eventually stall, although there is still a lot of disagreement about how far southward it will do so. Meanwhile, low pressure will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley. Overrunning moisture ahead of this system, combined with seasonably high precipitable water values, will result in a widespread rainfall spreading into the area late Friday night into Saturday. The low itself will track across the area late Saturday afternoon. Most of the area is expected to receive between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of beneficial rainfall by the time rain exits Saturday night. Can't rule out a few embedded thunderstorms as the low makes its closest approach; however the deeper convection will most likely remain south of the area. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the frontal position, which has trended farther south with recent model runs. Parts of the area will likely remain in the 40s, while 60s could still occur across the south. However, that might not occur until toward evening as the low itself draws the front northward. The first cold front will likely cross the area the second half of Saturday night as a second low splits off toward Toronto. This will bring rain to an end east of the Alleghenies, although some upslope precipitation may continue at times. This precipitation could change over to snow by daybreak Sunday. Westerly winds will increase behind the front, especially in the higher elevations. However, gusts should remain below advisory criteria through early Sunday morning. Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday Synoptic pattern will feature an UL ridge in the west and trough in the east through much of the long term. To start the long term, a positively tilted trough will reside over the Great Lakes Sunday before moving eastward. This will bring a secondary cold front to the region. Expect some rain showers east of the Alleghenies, which may mix with some graupel looking at soundings. In the Alleghenies, a rain/snow mix or all snow is expected. Accumulations look to generally be light (less than 2") at this time. Forecast highs are likely to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, with upper 20s to 30s across the mountains. Gusty winds accompany this pattern shift with westerly gusts to around 25 to 35 mph, nearing 45 mph along the Allegheny Front. Wind fields remain elevated into Sunday night with lows falling into the 20s (mid/upper teens for the Alleghenies) which will make wind chills feel notably cooler. Continued NW flow persists Monday with the aforementioned trough moving offshore. This will result in a drier pattern through early next week with high pressure generally staying south of the area through Wednesday. Coldest day will be Monday, with highs close to climo average (upper 30s to mid 40s, 20s to 30s for the mountains). Gradual warming trend through midweek. Another system enters at the very end of the week, potentially bringing rain/snow chances. Marine Light south/southeast winds will continue through tonight as high pressure over the area moves offshore. Southerly winds will increase by Friday afternoon. However, am not certain there will be enough atmospheric mixing to result in stronger advisory level gusts. The highest chance of this occurring may be over the middle/upper tidal Potomac. Winds likely relax and shift to the northwest Friday night as a cold front pushes into the area. This front will stall out through Saturday. Low pressure will ride along the boundary Saturday, bringing rain, shifting winds, and possibly fog (as high dew points move over the cooler waters). As the low makes its closest approach, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday afternoon and evening. The associated cold front will move through late Saturday night. Post frontal westerly winds could reach advisory levels early Sunday morning. W/NW winds will increase behind a secondary cold front Sunday. This will result in widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with localized GLW possible. Winds become more NW'ly by Monday and remain near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the afternoon. Winds drop off thereafter. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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