Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Scattered Flurries. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 933am EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Synopsis A series of cold fronts will cross the region this week. Each could bring periods of mountain snow showers, with a few flurries possible east of the mountains. These fronts also reinforce below normal temperatures and gusty winds through Thursday, resulting in low wind chills during the middle of the week. Temperatures briefly turn milder at the end of the week ahead of another stronger front that looks to cross this weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight Mid morning satellite/obs trends, the 12Z IAD and aircraft soundings, as well as hi-res guidance trends and BUFKIT profiles suggest the large and slowly expanding area of thin stratocu will likely persist through the day. Clouds should move east and dispersing late in the day/this evening as a shortwave and cold front press to the east. Have raised sky cover forecast to match latest trends/obs. A shortwave trough aloft and associated surface cold front look to move across our region today. The arrival of the front will bring a period of upslope mountain snow showers/patchy freezing drizzle in the Alleghenies. Total snow amounts will be around 1", with very localized amounts up to 2" possible. Given the localized nature of this event and lower SLRs, the overall impact should remain limited. Covered with an SPS for now. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail today as rather mild temps (for mid January) develop. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 40s for most areas, and would not be surprised to see a few spots hit 50F. Temps remain below freezing in the Alleghenies, and in the lower 30s at other high elevations. Mountain snow showers wane this evening, though a few showers could persist into the overnight hours. Much colder air arrives behind the front tonight. Lows plummet to the single digits in the Alleghenies, and teens to low 20s elsewhere. Winds are also expected to increase behind the front, gusting up to 15-25mph and up to 30-40mph in the mountains. The combination of cold air temps and gusty winds combine to produce wind chills in the single digits along/west of the Blue Ridge, and across north-central/northeast MD. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued along the Allegheny Front where wind chills below -10F are expected tonight. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night A weak surface high quickly moves from the TN Valley to just offshore Tuesday, with another cold front looking to cross our area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This brings another round of upslope mountain snow showers, some of which could be heavy at times. Better dynamic forcing, colder temps, and higher SLRs could result in 2-3" of accumulating snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precipitation remains confined to the Alleghenies, with dry conditions elsewhere. Cold conditions envelop the region through the middle of the week. Blustery conditions are also likely Tuesday evening into Wednesday as northwest winds increase in wake of the front. Highs are forecast to be in the 20s to lower 30s, with teens in the Alleghenies. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to teens. Widespread wind chills in the lower single digits to below zero are likely each night, with the lowest wind chills Tuesday night. Cold Weather Advisories could be needed for a large portion of the area. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday An upper trough will descend down in northwesterly flow and approach the area from the Great Lakes on Thursday. This system will be rather moisture starved in nature, but the combination of some glancing synoptic scale ascent and upslope flow impinging on the mountains should lead to snow showers in the Alleghenies. A few inches of snow may be possible by the time precipitation winds down late Thursday night. Clouds will be on the increase to the east of the mountains, but conditions are expected to remain dry for most. A stray flurry or very light snow shower can't be completely ruled out, depending on the strength and track of the upper trough. Winds will be light out of the southwest, and high temperatures Thursday will be in the 30s for most, with 20s in the mountains. Thursday's trough will rapidly depart off toward the east, allowing shortwave ridging to build in aloft for Friday. At the surface, high pressure will build to our southwest over the Central Appalachians. Sunny skies and light winds are expected for all, with high temperatures in the 40s for most (30s mountains). Spread with respect to the smaller scale forecast details increases markedly heading into the upcoming weekend. On the synoptic scale, the general trend should be for broad upper troughing to dig over the center of the country, placing us in southwesterly flow aloft downstream of the trough. Various sources of deterministic/ensemble guidance differ substantially with respect to the handling of individual disturbances embedded with the southwesterly flow. While there will likely be a chance for some precipitation over the course of the weekend, it's difficult to pin down the exact timing and at this point. Temperatures should trend cooler over the course of the weekend, with rain being the most likely precipitation type on Saturday, and snow or a mixture of rain and snow possible if it were to precipitate on Sunday. The finer scale details of this weekend's forecast should gradually come into better focus over the next few days. Marine Mostly favorable marine conditions are expected across all the waters today, though some gusts around 15-18 knots are possible this afternoon in the upper Chesapeake Bay. Starting tonight through most of the week, a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions are expected. Small Craft Advisories go into effect tonight for all the waters. Gale Watches are in effect for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely needed through Wednesday night. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Winds are forecast to be out of the southwest on Thursday, and then west to southwest on Friday. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 1am to 11am EST Tuesday for MDZ001. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1am to 11am EST Tuesday for VAZ503. WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 1am to 11am EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ535- 536. |
Baltimore/Washington Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite