Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915pm EDT Wednesday September 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The severe weather threat continues to decrease overnight, but the threat for thunderstorms remains, especially along and north of I- 66/US-50. Heat Advisories have been issued from 11am to 8pm Thursday for portions of the eastern WV Panhandle, southern MD, and northern/central VA. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm chances look to continue through Friday. - 2) Mostly dry conditions and lowering humidity for the Labor Day holiday weekend ahead. KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm chances look to continue through Friday. The severe weather threat continues to decrease this evening as the the remnant outflow/backdoor front washes out over the region. A leftover shower or two has been noted across up across Washington/Frederick counties, but this activity has gradually decreased in coverage given the stability in the lower levels. Scattered to broken mid and high level clouds will remain, especially points east of I-81 given the washed out boundary nearby. Overall expecting a lull in any activity through at least 2-3am with the potential for a secondary round storms dropping south from PA heading into early Thursday morning. This activity is currently located up across the Twin Tiers of New York/northeast PA where numerous severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect. Hi-res guidance pushes this activity slowly south into areas along and north of I- 66/US-50 between 2am-6am Thursday morning. Guidance varies on coverage with a focus across northern and central MD compared to locations further south into Washington DC, southern MD, and northern VA. At this rate, not looking at any widespread severe weather with this batch of storms although locally gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out. The big question is to how this round of morning convection (if it occurs) plays into what will happen in the afternoon. Current guidance suggest a scattering of storms originating in and around the Alleghenies working east as another wave of energy pulses through. Some of guidance has limited activity east of the mountains while others have more. General consensus is for convection to Probability of Precipitation toward the mountains and west of US-15 between 11am-2pm before working east into the metros between 3-9pm. Coverage remains uncertain given any convective debris from the morning. Even with that said, expect some organization given 30-35 kts of shear aloft. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms given increased DCAPE values on the order of 1000-1400 j/kg. Large hail also cannot be ruled out due to decent lapse rates in the 6-7.5 degree C/km range. As for flooding, an isolated instance or two cannot be ruled out, especially in urban areas or in the event a cell backbuilds/trains over a given area. Modeling continues to hold additional thunderstorm threats Thursday night into Friday although confidence in this is low pending the timing and placement of the incumbent cold frontal boundary. Right now, most of the guidance has a front dropping through the area either Friday morning into Friday afternoon or Friday afternoon into Friday night. This would spell continue concerns for severe weather in locations along and south of I-70/I-68 where instability may be maximized. The added lift from the front should help with better coverage and organization of t-storms Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will once again be the main threat with storms along with frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and large hail as secondary concerns. Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as highs pushing back into the low to mid 90s Thursday afternoon. Locations south of I- 66/US-50 and along/east of I-95 could see highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 105 degrees for locations east of the Blue Ridge. Heat Advisories have been hoisted for portions of northern and central VA, southern MD and the eastern WV Panhandle where criteria will be met. Baltimore/Washington DC Metros will be just shy with heat indices likely hovering in the 100-104 degree range. Temperatures will cool a bit Friday with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indices will decrease due to the incumbent front, added convection, and increased cloud cover across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry conditions and lowering humidity for the Labor Day holiday weekend ahead. High pressure tracks southeast from the Great Lakes on Saturday, pushing a cold front through region throughout the day. Some uncertainty still exists regarding how far south this front will advance south before stalling, but most ensemble members depict this boundary south of our region by Saturday afternoon. This should bring a drop in heat & humidity across the Mid-Atlantic, with afternoon highs ranging in the mid-80s on Saturday. As mid-level dry air continues to track across the area, temperatures should continue to decrease as the weekend goes on. By the Labor Day holiday, it should feel relatively mild & dry, with dewpoints ranging in the upper-50s across the region. Marine Overall looking at no marine hazards overnight although showers and thunderstorms may sneak into the northern waters early Thursday morning. SMWs may be needed as this activity drops south although confidence is low. Winds will remain light and variable otherwise at less than 10kts. SMWS are likely again Thursday afternoon and evening as another wave of energy pulses through. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly during the 3-9pm timeframe. On Friday and Saturday, winds below 15kts most of the time, but higher winds and waves could during afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. SMWS may be needed again to encompass this threat. Light northwesterly winds shift easterly by Saturday afternoon as the front sags south of the waters and high pressure builds from the north. Climate Record high minimums were set yesterday at IAD, DCA, and HGR. Please RERs for detail info. More record high minimums are possible again tonight and Thursday night. Below is a list of record warm temperatures for September 2 and 3. (A '+' indicates the record also occurred in previous years). The period of record for most sites dates back to the late 1800s, except for Sterling-Dulles Airport which dates back to 1960. ==================================================================== SEPTEMBER 3 ==================================================================== Site Record Daily High Record Daily Warm Low Baltimore (BWI) MD 98 (2023) 79 (1993) Washington DC 98 (1953) 79 (1993) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA 99 (2023) 77 (1993) Baltimore (Downtown) MD 98 (2023) 82 (1993) Annapolis MD 99 (1993) 79 (2018) Hagerstown MD 100 (1953) 72 (2018+) Martinsburg WV 102 (1953) 71 (1957) Charlottesville VA 104 (1953) 75 (1930) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD... Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Thursday for MDZ016>018. VA... Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Thursday for VAZ029>031- 036>040-050-051-055>057-501-502-526-527. WV... Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Thursday for WVZ053. Marine None. |
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