Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt...Becoming N Late. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 Kt...Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244am EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Synopsis A weak area of high pressure will build overhead tonight. An upper level disturbance will move through tomorrow night, pushing an Arctic front through the area at the surface. High pressure will build in for the first half of next week. Near Term - Through Today Current conditions across the region can be characterized by increased cloudcover and very cold temperatures in the 20s area-wide. Looking at satellite, can see several features at play, which will influence the weather pattern in the next 24-36 hours. First off, a weak upper ridge is moving overhead today. This will actually bump temperatures back into the 40s for most, and also lead to dry conditions throughout the day. However, there is still enough upper-level moisture streaming in from the west, which will lead to abundant cloudcover throughout the day. Meanwhile, much further to the west, the waveguide across North America will start to amplify as a system tracks toward the British Columbia coast. A ridge building event will ensue downstream over western Canada, which will cause a pre- existing upper low over the Upper Great Lakes to drop southeastward toward the Mid- Atlantic and amplify into a shorter wavelength open wave. As this occurs, large scale forcing for ascent will increase across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Snow now appears as though it will start during the mid to late afternoon hours in the Alleghenies. Short Term - Tonight Through Monday Night Snow really picks up in intensity across the Alleghenies this evening into tonight, becoming moderate to heavy at times. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for western Garrett and western Grant counties, where 4-8 inches of snow is expected. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for eastern Garrett, western Allegany, and western Pendleton Counties, where 2-4 inches of snow is expected. With westerly low-level flow downsloping off of the Appalachians, precipitation will struggle to make progress to the east of the Allegheny Front for several hours. As the wave amplifies and approaches from the west, most models show a jet steak developing downstream, with forcing for ascent increasing within the equatorward entrance of the jet streak. Most solutions show the jet entrance region lining up right along I-95. Ascent within the jet entrance region may cause precipitation to jump eastward and develop in-situ along the I-95 corridor, largely skipping locations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge. Precipitation within the jet entrance region to the east of the Blue Ridge is expected to blossom during the mid-late evening hours, and then slowly drift southeastward through the remainder of the night. The precipitation may begin as a brief period of rain or mixed rain and snow, especially along and southeast of the I-95 corridor. This mix should be short-lived however, as much colder air rushes in behind an Arctic front that will move through over the course of the night. In terms of timing, some light precipitation could begin as early as the mid-late evening hours, but the bulk of the precipitation along the I-95 corridor is expected to occur between roughly 11pm and 7 AM. The band that will develop will be a relatively narrow feature, and will feature moderate to heavy snow at times. Snowfall rates within the band could near or potentially briefly exceed one inch per hour at times late Saturday night. With a narrow feature producing heavy precipitation, snow totals will be heavily dependent on the ultimate placement of this band. This, combined with the potential for a bit of mixing with rain at onset makes for a challenging snowfall forecast. The overnight model guidance continued to favor the I-95 corridor, generally from DC through northeast MD, and especially even into NJ. So, decided to hoist Winter Weather Advisories during the overnight forecast cycle as a result. Expecting 1-3 inches for most in the advisory, with some higher totals closer to 4 inches in far northeast MD. There is still that potential for a boom scenario, particularly northeast of the DC metro into northeast MD, where in a worst case scenario up to 6 inches could be possible. Everything would need to line up perfectly for this to happen, but it is still not out of the realm of possibility. Snow will end from northwest to southeast a few hours either side of daybreak, with the back edge of the snow clearing southern Maryland by around mid- morning. Strong cold air advection is expected behind the Arctic front through the day Sunday, with 850 hPa temperatures crashing to around -15 to -20 C by peak heating. This will cause temperatures to drop through the 20s over the course of the day. Northwesterly wind gusts to around 35 mph will make it feel even colder, pushing wind chills into the single digits and teens. After the snow moves out, dry conditions are expected to the east of the mountains. Upslope snow showers will linger in the Alleghenies over the course of the day. Cold and windy conditions will continue through Sunday night, with cold weather headlines likely being needed for portions of the area. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday The cold weather pattern will be replaced with a warmer one Tuesday into Wednesday. The deep upper level trough that dominated the weather pattern over the last several days shifts offshore with ridging building aloft. This will allow for more of a zonal flow pattern into the region. WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) will ensue at the surface late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front lifts toward the region. This will bring rain showers Wednesday that linger into Thursday. Highs Wednesday look to push back into the mid 40s and low 50s with mid to upper 50s Thursday. Mountain locations will remain a touch cooler in the low to mid 40s. High pressure builds again over the area to end the week. Marine Due to some southerly channeling up the Chesapeake Bay early this morning, a brief period of near-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds is possible around daybreak. Confidence was too low for an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) though, but should this occur, an MWS may suffice to cover this threat. Will continue to monitor over the next couple of hours. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southwesterly winds are expected during the day today. Winds will then turn out of the northwest and pick up fairly rapidly in magnitude during the second half of the night as an Arctic front moves over the waters. Gale Warnings have been hoisted with the overnight forecast package to cover this threat. However, the peak winds may not occur until mid-late morning. Still, conditions will deteriorate quickly around daybreak. Freezing spray may also be possible at times during the day Sunday and into Sunday night, especially over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay, where waves may be up to 5 feet at times and winds remain Gale-force. Gale conditions gradually taper off overnight from northwest to southeast, but will linger over the lower Tidal Potomac and middle Bay until early Monday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected to continue Monday with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing gradually through the day and night, and dropping below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) threshold by daybreak Tuesday. Lighter winds expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with no marine hazards expected. Tides / Coastal Flooding Following the passage of a strong arctic cold front Sunday, gusty northwest winds will push water south and towards the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay fairly rapidly. Blowout tides seem likely for many areas along the western shoreline of the Chesapeake Bay by the Sunday evening low tide cycle and continuing into Monday as well. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for DCZ001. MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508. Gale Warning from 6am to 6pm EST Sunday for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Sunday to 6am EST Monday for MDZ008. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am EST Sunday for MDZ016-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Sunday for MDZ501-510. Winter Storm Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 4pm EST Sunday for MDZ509. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for VAZ053-054. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Sunday for WVZ503-505. Winter Storm Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 4pm EST Sunday for WVZ501. Marine Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ530. Gale Warning from 6am to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ530-531-535- 536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Sunday to 6am EST Monday for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539. Gale Warning from 6am Sunday to 6am EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543. |
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