Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926am EDT Wednesday July 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No planned changes to headlines this morning. Coordination expected this afternoon to upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning, with additional Heat Advisories needed for the mountains. .KEY MESSAGES... - (1) Extreme heat builds over the region through the Independence Day holiday weekend. - (2) Thunderstorm chance increase through this weekend, with an increased risk for severe thunderstorms Friday into the Independence Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat builds over the region through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Today will mark the beginning of a near record breaking heatwave across the region. Based off of current forecasts, DC and Baltimore could potentially tie their longest ever stretches of 100 degree days in a row (the record is 4 days at both locations). Whether or not those records are ultimately tied will depend on where temperatures reach both today and Saturday, when high temperatures are forecast to be right around 100. Thursday and Friday look to be near locks for high temperatures over 100 degrees. IAD could potentially challenge daily record high temperatures each day through Saturday, while DCA and BWI could challenge their daily record highs Thursday through Saturday. For more historical context, see the climate section at the bottom of the forecast discussion. On the synoptic scale, a strong upper level ridge/closed anticyclone will build overhead today through Friday, bringing a very hot and humid airmass at lower levels along with it. This upper ridge will start to slowly break down heading into this weekend, which will open the door for the development of thunderstorms across the region (see key point 2 below). In terms of specifics, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 90s to around 100 today at lower elevations, with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will yield heat indices of 100-105 to the west of the Blue Ridge, and 105-110 further east. Heat Advisories are in effect for all locations today, with the exception of the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The peak of the heat will build in for Thursday and Friday, when model guidance shows 850 hPa temperatures soaring to around 24-25 C. This should yield high temperatures between 100 and 105 at lower elevations, which when combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s will result in peak heat indices around 105-110 to the west of the Blue Ridge, and 110-115 further east. Extreme Heat Watches are in effect for all locations outside of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge for both Thursday and Friday. It looks as though the heat and humidity will likely hold on through the weekend as well. However, forecast confidence in the exact high temperatures starts to decrease a bit, as both remnant cloud cover from thunderstorms on previous days and thunderstorms from the day of could impact temperatures. As of now, the current forecast calls for high temperatures in the upper 90s/lower 100s at lower elevations on Saturday (Independence Day), and mid 90s to near 100 on Sunday. Overnight low temperatures each night will be in the 70s for most, with lower 80s in the urban centers. As a result, there will be very little relief from the heat overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chance increase through this weekend, with an increased risk for severe thunderstorms Friday into the Independence Day weekend. With excessive heat and humidity comes the potential for severe weather as abundant instability and moisture pool over the region. Coverage of storms today is expected to be very low (around 15pct), with pronounced capping and ample mid-level dry air present in forecast soundings. The one area where a storm or two could potentially form is from DC northeastward toward Baltimore in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor, where low-level convergence will be maximized as a background surface trough overlaps with developing bay/river breezes. The threat appears most apparent from 4pm to 8pm for a Probability of Precipitation up storm to develop. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected. An even stronger cap is forecast on Thursday, resulting in dry conditions for all. If a storm were to form today, it could potentially be capable of producing strong downbursts, given the very high CAPE/DCAPE environment that will be in place. Upper-level ridging will gradually buckle Friday before flattening over the weekend into early next week as the broad subtropical ridge shifts further offshore and a series of shortwave disturbances pivot through. Timing and coverage of storms have yet to be determined given the placement of synoptic/mesoscale features. With that said, looking at scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening period with damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning as the main threats. Storms may be of the pulse variety likely forming along the lee side trough east of the Alleghenies or residual outflows (i.e the bay/river breeze) due to the lack shear aloft Friday into Saturday. Of course this is subject to change based on any disturbances that move through as the ridge starts to break down. If this were to occur, we could be looking at more organized and widespread storm clusters, but confidence in this is low at this time. Multiple instances of deterministic/ensemble guidance illustrate this on both Saturday into Sunday as the ridge flattens further. Google AI WxNext2 along with CIPS/CSU AI probs illustrate this with rather high probabilities of severe weather this weekend. As we approach the Independence Day weekend, have a weather preparedness plan ready to go, especially if you are outdoors (i.e at a picnic with family or a fireworks show). Plan ahead for any outdoor activities this weekend, as they are likely to be interrupted by storms at some point. Have a way to get trusted warnings, download a radar/lightning app to keep aware of changing weather conditions, and know when to act. When thunder roars, go indoors. Lightning can strike up to 15 miles outside of the core of thunderstorms, so wait 30 minutes after that last rumble of thunder before resuming outdoor activities. Given the heat in place, some storms could be quite intense (if they form). From a historical perspective, prolonged near record heat in summer often ends in a period of strong storms. Intense storms can produce hail and high winds in addition to rain and lightning, so having access to sturdy shelter is important. Marine SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect today due to southerly channeling. Gusts of 25-30 kts are possible within the main channel of the bay this afternoon and evening. Additional channeling is possible Thursday into the weekend although intensity gradually drops off each day. A Probability of Precipitation up shower or t-storm cannot be ruled out along the western shore of the bay this afternoon/evening due to the bay breeze. If this were to materialize SMWs, may be needed to encompass this threat. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon and especially by Saturday afternoon. With any storms will come the chance for erratic and strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of 50 knots, as well as frequent lightning and hail. Timing of storms is still a bit uncertain, but should generally be during the mid-late afternoon through the evening hours, as is typical with summer convection. Climate There is a significant heat risk this week. The numbers below aren't a forecast, but rather a reference for historical context for comparison. Latest forecast: weather.gov/lwx. ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on July 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on July 20, 1930 + August 06, 1918) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on July 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on July 07, 2012 + July 22, 2011) Annapolis 106 (set on August 06, 1918) Hagerstown 105 (set on July 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on July 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on September 07, 1954 + 3 other times) ================================================================== *** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on August 05, 1930 + 2 other times) Washington 84 (set on July 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 79 (set on August 08, 2007) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on July 22, 2011 and July 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on July 07, 1994) Hagerstown 86 (set on Jun 15, 1899) Martinsburg 86 (set on July 21, 1930) Charlottesville 85 (set on August 07, 1918) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 107 (set on July 10, 1936) Washington 106 (set on July 20, 1930) Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on July 22, 2011) Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on July 07, 2012 + July 22, 2011) Annapolis 105 (set on July 21, 1930 + July 02, 1901) Hagerstown 105 (set on July 14, 1954) Martinsburg 112 (set on July 11, 1936) Charlottesville 107 (set on July 10, 1936 + July 20, 1930) ================================================================== *** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS *** ================================================================== Baltimore 83 (set on July 21, 1930) Washington 84 (set on July 24, 2011 + 2 other times) Sterling-Dulles Airport 78 (set on July 24, 2010 + July 08, 2010) Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on July 22, 2011 + July 10, 1993) Annapolis 92 (set on July 07, 1994) Hagerstown 83 (set on July 24, 2010) Martinsburg 86 (set on July 21, 1930) Charlottesville 84 (set on July 22, 1930) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 01 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1933 + 1901) Washington 102 (1901) | 79 (1977) Sterling-Dulles Airport 96 (2012) | 72 (2017 + 3) Baltimore Downtown 101 (2012) | 82 (2012) Annapolis 103 (1901) | 79 (1945 + 1901) Hagerstown 100 (1901) | 74 (2017 + 1977) Martinsburg 102 (1933) | 74 (1933) Charlottesville 101 (2012 + 1945) | 78 (1901) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 02 ================================================================== Baltimore 103 (1901) | 80 (1901) Washington 101 (1898) | 79 (2012 + 1872) Sterling-Dulles Airport 98 (1966) | 75 (2022) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1966) | 84 (2002) Annapolis 105 (1901) | 80 (1901) Hagerstown 100 (1966) | 74 (2018 + 1901) Martinsburg 102 (1933 + 1931) | 75 (1933 + 1901) Charlottesville 100 (1954) | 76 (1910) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 03 ================================================================== Baltimore 104 (1898) | 80 (1898) Washington 101 (1966 + 2) | 80 (2018) Sterling-Dulles Airport 103 (1966) | 73 (2018 + 2) Baltimore Downtown 102 (1997) | 82 (2018 + 1983) Annapolis 100 (1901) | 84 (1896) Hagerstown 102 (1966) | 76 (2002) Martinsburg 102 (1941 + 1911) | 74 (1980) Charlottesville 100 (1966 + 1954) | 79 (1911) ================================================================== *** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS *** VALID: July 04 ================================================================== Baltimore 100 (2002 + 2) | 78 (1911) Washington 100 (1919) | 80 (2018 + 2002) Sterling-Dulles Airport 97 (2002 + 1999) | 75 (2018) Baltimore Downtown 101 (2002 + 1990) | 83 (2002) Annapolis 98 (1999) | 81 (2018) Hagerstown 100 (1966 + 1919) | 76 (2018) Martinsburg 103 (1898) | 76 (1999) Charlottesville 100 (2012) | 78 (1919) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Consecutive Days Max Temp >=100 Area (obs site) Records since ------------------------------------------------------------------ Baltimore (BWI) 4 days July 14-17,2024 & July 19-22,1930 Washington (DCA) 4 days July 14-17, 2024 & July 5-8, 2012 Sterling-Dulles (IAD) 2 days July 7-8, 2012, July 21-22, 2011 July 6-7, 2010, July 16-17, 1997 Baltimore Downtown (DMH) 5 days July 3-7, 2010 & July 7-11, 1993 Annapolis (NAK) 1 day July 21, 2019, July 7, 2012, July 22, 2011, June 29, 1959 Hagerstown (HGR) 3 days July 5-7, 2010 Martinsburg (MRB) 6 days June 1-6, 1925 Charlottesville (CHO) 5 days July 4-8, 2012 Period of Record (POR) context... Area (obs site) Records since ------------------------------------------------------------------ Baltimore (BWI) Jan 1872 Washington (DCA) July 1872 Sterling-Dulles Airport (IAD) Jan 1960 Baltimore Downtown (DMH) July 1950 Annapolis (NAK) Jan 1894 Hagerstown (HGR) Jan 1899 Martinsburg (MRB) Jan 1891 Charlottesville (CHO) Jan 1893 NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for DCZ001. Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for DCZ001. MD... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-008- 011-013-014-016>018-503>508. Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508. Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ502. VA... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>506-526-527. Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502- 505-506-526-527. WV... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for WVZ051>053. Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for WVZ050>053-055-502-504. Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for WVZ050-055-502- 504-506. Marine Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ530-535-536. Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for ANZ531>534- 537>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ542. |
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