Marine Weather Net

Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
5  KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ542 Forecast Issued: 134 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Overnight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms.
Thu...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Numerous Showers And Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog.
Fri Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Sat...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night.
Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345am EDT Thu May 23 2024

Synopsis
A cold front will drop into the Mid-Atlantic through tonight, then return northward as a warm front Friday. The front will then meander north to south over the weekend, before being overtaken by a stronger cold front Monday. High pressure looks to build toward the area by the middle of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
A weak surface trough - responsible for yesterday afternoon and evening's showers and thunderstorms - was still evident in surface observations early this morning roughly along the Blue Ridge Mountains. This trough will likely sharpen some and drift eastward toward I-95 through daybreak in response to a weak perturbation aloft. These features coupled with elevated instability are forecast to result in scattered showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms through mid-morning before departing to the east. Lapse rates and instability aloft aren't particularly strong, and near-surface nocturnal stability is present, so the prospects of severe weather through the morning hours are relatively low.

Some clearing is expected in the wake of this morning's activity. The exact timing and extent of clearing remains a bit uncertain, and will dictate the amount of instability that will rebuild ahead of the next round of potential showers and thunderstorms. Subsidence and a lack of stronger instability in the wake of the morning activity will likely suppress convective initiation through much of the afternoon. By late afternoon into this evening, however, a stronger mid/upper wave and surface cold front approach from the west. Mid-level flow attendant to this wave looks strongest late this afternoon, with the highest 700-500 hPa flow split into two pieces - one over southern VA and the other across northern PA. Still, effective shear around 30 kts combined with the forcing along the front will likely result in a few clusters of semi-organized multicells or bands of thunderstorms capable of producing several instances of gusty to damaging winds and perhaps isolated/marginal hail given modest mid-level lapse rates around 6-7 C/km. Given the uncertainties in the extent of heating, and whether more appreciable CAPE/convective initiation can overlap with the better shear profiles, the severe weather threat this afternoon and evening remains marginal. Conditionally, a more organized band or two of thunderstorms could develop if stronger heating is realized, or the incoming wave/front end up a bit stronger.

PWs are not overly high for late May, but the environment could support rainfall rates around 1 inch per hour under the heavier cells. Steering flow weakens a bit this evening, so any cell mergers or brief training with flow parallel to the slowing front this evening could pose a low-end flood risk. The more robust CAMs produce localized swaths of 2-4 inches of rain, but are rather random in their placement which is to be expected with a modestly forced and somewhat conditional setup. If it appears these higher totals will come to fruition and fall over vulnerable areas with lowered FFG, a targeted Flood Watch may be needed. The threat for this seems highest from around sunset through late evening/midnight or so.

Otherwise, it looks like another warm and muggy day with highs into the 80s and lows in the 60s amid light SW to W/NW flow.

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
Shortwave ridging looks to crest over the area Friday. So, despite the nearby front lifting back northward as a warm front, shower and thunderstorm coverage may be rather sparse. It looks like temperatures will be warmer Friday with more breaks of sun.

Another trough digs in from the Ohio Valley Saturday. Overnight guidance trended a bit early in the diurnal cycle which would lessen the convective threat somewhat, but this will be reliant on what happens with convection upstream over the next few days. Should the incoming wave slow down or become stronger, there may be potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms again. The heavy rain threat will need to be monitored, as well, with the meandering front nearby and rain anticipated in previous days.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Shortwave ridging will build again on Sunday keeping convective cvrg isolated and mainly along the I-64 corridor.

Memorial Day still looks like a very active severe weather day and the most active of all of next week. A deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will push a strong cold front through the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, widespread showers and thunderstorms appear definite with the potential for a significant severe weather episode given moderately strong bulk shear values of 30-40kt, high instability, and moderately steep mid- level lapse rates. GFS (Global Forecast System) forecast soundings also indicate a tornado threat with 0-3 km SRH of over 200 m^2/s^2, EHI of 2-4, and high supercell composite values. The severe threat should end by 06Z Tuesday with frontal passage. There could still be instability showers Tuesday afternoon as upper trough axis pivots through, but the deep moisture should have been shunted south and east the night before.

Cooler and drier weather establishes for the middle and second half of next week.

Marine
Light south flow and showers are expected this morning, becoming southwest this afternoon, then west to northwest tonight through Friday. A period of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are forecast this morning. A couple gusts to near gale-force can't be ruled out if a stronger thunderstorm develops. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated this evening into tonight, with a subsequent gusty wind threat which may require SMWs.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks sparse Friday afternoon and evening, with higher coverage Saturday as winds turn back to out of the south.

SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions appear likely Sunday night through Tuesday. SMWs are likely to be required on Memorial Day.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Minor coastal flooding is possible at DC Waterfront and Annapolis with the high tide cycle this morning. After the high tide this morning, winds shift from southerly to westerly allowing tidal anomalies to begin decreasing.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
None.