Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt... Increasing To 25 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859pm EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Synopsis A backdoor front will slip south into the area tonight before lifting back north Sunday. Low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes Sunday, dragging a cold front through Sunday night into early Monday morning. High pressure will gradually build eastward from the Midwest next week. This area of high pressure settles over the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday into next weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning EVENING The high clouds have extended as far south as around I-66 this evening, and though a few low-mid clouds have developed, they have been fairly transient. The I-66 threshold for the higher cloud cover likely remains overnight as the backdoor front stalls out. Forecast is on track for lows in the 40s to mid 50s. PREVIOUSLLOWS... As a slow moving backdoor front approaches from the north, clouds have steadily increased along and north of the Mason- Dixon Line. However, the relatively diffuse nature of this cloud deck has not necessarily inhibited daytime heating. The dry nature of the air mass combined with ample sunshine has helped drive temperatures well into the 70s, locally reaching the low 80s. Have continued to bump temperatures up to match the recent trends. Clouds should continue to drift southward through the evening hours. It appears the north/south cut-off of this cloud deck is around U.S. 50. During the overnight hours, some of this enhanced cloud cover is to erode. Nighttime temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the low/mid 50s, locally falling into the mid/upper 40s across the sheltered mountain and river valleys. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night Plenty of warming will ensue with a backdoor front expected to retreat northward as a warm front. Model guidance favors an expanding warm sector over the area with forecast highs staying above average. With 850-mb temperatures around 14-16C, this keeps highs in the low 80s. However, a temperature inversion near 900-mb does offset the potential for some mid 80s. By the early afternoon hours, increasing boundary layer mixing will support south-southwesterly gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Further, some of the higher elevations may see around 30 to 40 mph gusts. Besides the continued weekend warmth and breezy winds, skies are expected to gradually cloud up from west to east. Increasing lift ahead of a cold front will even spark some showers, a few may even produce near-severe caliber winds gusts, particularly over Garrett County. Although the activity may be isolated in nature, a number of forecast soundings indicate the thermodynamic environment to be favorable (DCAPE 1000 J/kg). As such, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal risk which traverses portions of the Allegheny Front. Expect much of this activity during the late afternoon to early evening period. Keeping the forecast mainly dry for the I-95 corridor and points eastward as forcing weakens considerably. An abrupt pattern shift unfolds in the wake of this cold front. For Sunday night into early Monday, a gusty west-northwesterly wind overspreads the entire area. Allegheny mountain locales could approach 40 to 45 mph gusts which is near Wind Advisory criteria. Locations downstream should see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range amidst the steady cold advection pattern. Expect a mixture of clouds and sun given the trough overhead. Forecast temperatures will be down from the weekend as highs sit in the upper 50s to 60s. Those in the mountains are likely to stay in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Some light upslope showers are possible through Monday night, some of which may feature a few snowflakes mixing in at the highest elevations. Forecast lows stay near freezing in the Alleghenies, with mid/upper 30s eastward to the Blue Ridge Mountains. Those along the I-95 corridor and points eastward should stay in the low/mid 40s. Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday Gusty winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient located overhead between high pressure to our northwest and low pressure located north of New England. West/northwesterly winds are expected to gust around 15 to 25 knots each afternoon with higher gusts possible at higher elevations. This will result in upslope precipitation for those along and west of the Alleghenies. The rest of the forecast area is expected to remain dry as high pressure builds over the area. For the Alleghenies, there is a slight chance to chance of precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday. As overnight temperatures fall into the low 30s Tuesday into Wednesday, a snowflake or two may mix in with the rain though no accumulation is possible as temperatures briefly stay below freezing. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s. As winds diminish Wednesday evening, conditions dry out for the Allegheny front. Temperatures begin gradually warming Thursday and Friday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s each night. Marine Wind gusts through tonight should cap out around 10 knots or so as a weak backdoor cold front meanders nearby. Ahead of a stronger frontal system, southerly winds increase in earnest on Sunday which yields 20 to 25 knot gusts. As such, Small Craft Advisories are in place through Sunday night. Expect an abrupt wind shift to west to northwesterly on Monday morning with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots in the wake. There are indications that some portions of the Chesapeake Bay could see near gale force winds on Monday. Will continue to monitor for a need of any Gale Watches. Residual gusts persist into the night which will require additional Small Craft Advisories. Small Craft Advisories are likely Tuesday and Wednesday with west/northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots over the waters each afternoon. Dry conditions are expected both days as high pressure builds over the area. Tides / Coastal Flooding Strengthen south winds may result in a surge into Action Stage along sensitive shoreline such as Annapolis, Straits Point, and Washington DC SW Waterfront late Sunday. No coastal flooding is explicitly forecast at this time, although guidance is closest to minor at Annapolis. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6am EDT Monday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542. Small Craft Advisory from 9am Sunday to 6am EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543. |
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