Marine Weather Net

Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast


REST OF THE OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TODAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ542 Forecast Issued: 333 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
Rest Of The Overnight...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Today...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass by to the west today. The warm front associated with the low will move into the area this afternoon and the cold front associated with the low will pass through tonight into early Monday morning. High pressure will return by Tuesday before moving offshore Wednesday. A strong cold front will pass through the area late Wednesday through Wednesday night and high pressure will return for late in the week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Low pressure will move northeast into the Ohio Valley this morning while a warm front associated with the low approaches from the south. Clouds have already increased, and rain is expected to overspread the area this morning from southwest to northeast as southern stream moisture along with warmer air overruns the surface cooler air ahead of the warm front. However, this system is progressive since it will get caught in the jetstream, so the low will quickly move off the northeast this afternoon. The dry slot associated with it will cause rain to diminish from southwest to northeast this afternoon into early this evening.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally around a quarter to three quarters of an inch.

Areas east of Interstate 95 are most likely to punch into the warm sector later this afternoon/early evening. There may be enough instability for scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm across these areas. However, it appears that any thunderstorm if it were to develop would not be rooted within the boundary layer this far north. Therefore, severe storms are not expected.

This afternoon will turn out to be mild, especially in the Potomac Highlands and along/east of Interstate 95 where these areas are most likely get into the warm sector. Max temps will range from the 50s west of Interstate 95 to the 60s near and east of Interstate 95 as well as some of the valleys in the Potomac Highlands.

Did issue a wind advisory for the ridge tops along the Allegheny Front from mid morning through tonight. Wind gusts around 50 mph are likely across these areas. The strongest winds are most likely mid- morning through mid afternoon with the strong low- level jet overhead, and then again tonight due to cold advection.

Elsewhere for tonight, most areas will remain dry behind the departing low. However, the cold front associated with the low will move into the area late tonight. A stratocu deck will increase and some upslope rain and snow showers are likely along and west of the Allegheny Front. Snow showers are most likely above 3kft, but any accumulation should be light. Lows will range from the 30s in the Allegheny Highlands, to the 40s for most other locations, with near 50 in downtown Washington and Baltimore.

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
An upper-level trough axis will pass through the area Monday behind the cold front, and this may cause bkn/ovc stratocu deck for much of the day. A few rain and snow showers are likely, especially through midday along/west of the Allegheny Front. An isolated shower may even spill east of the mountains, but any rainfall amounts will be very light and most of the time should be dry. Highs will range from the 30s in the mountains to the 50s for most other locations, and a blustery northwest wind is expected with gusts around 20 to 30 mph.

High pressure will build overhead Monday night and winds will quickly diminish close to sunset. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected.

The high will slowly move off to the east Tuesday, but dry conditions will persist. A strong cold front will move through the Midwest Tuesday night, and a southerly flow will strengthen ahead of the system. This combined with the meridional flow suggests that moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will get drawn into the area. The main question is timing, but clouds are expected to increase Tuesday night, and showers will likely begin to overspread the area late from west to east.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
On Wednesday, a split flow pattern remains over the CONUS, as a trough moves over the Plains while broad ridging builds over the Southeast. As the trough progresses eastward into the Great Lakes, an associated cold front is expected to approach the area, bringing precipitation ahead of and along with it. Guidance suggests a fairly progressive system, moving out of the region by Thursday morning, though some models have lingering upslope showers into the afternoon. The main concern with this system will be the potential for strong winds. Models are fairly consistent in showing a strong jet moving in along and behind the front Wednesday into Thursday. Damaging wind gusts may be possible over land, and gale conditions possible over the waters. Following the exit of this system, high pressure is expected to build into the region once again.

Temperatures during the period start out above average, with Wednesday being the warmest day ahead of the cold front (50s to low 60s for much of the area). Behind the front, temperatures drop to below normal and warm through the remainder of the period.

Marine
Low pressure will pass by to the west today and the warm front associated with the low will move into the area. A strengthening gradient will cause southerly winds to strengthen this morning and continue into this afternoon. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect this morning for the middle and lower Tidal Potomac River as well as the Bay south of Pooles Island, and for all the waters this afternoon. Confidence for the highest winds gusts will be further into the warm sector, over the middle portion of the Bay and the lower Tidal Potomac River. Gusts around 30 knots are expected across these areas. A few gale-force gusts cannot be ruled out, but confidence is too low for a gale warning at this time given the relatively cooler waters.

The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect this evening for the waters and for late tonight over the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River. Southwest winds are expected during this time. A cold front will pass through the waters late tonight into early Monday morning, and gusty northwest winds are expected behind the boundary. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for all of the waters Monday, and may need to be extended into Monday night for portions of the waters. High pressure will build overhead late Monday night into early Tuesday before moving offshore later Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night. Southerly winds will increase, and an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed for portions of the waters during this time.

Gale conditions are possible over the waters on Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Behind the front, winds should gradually diminish to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Thursday.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A southerly wind will increase today into this evening ahead of a cold front. This will cause anomalies to increase sharply, since gusty southerly winds are expected (20-30 knots). Minor flooding is possible around times of high tide, especially late this afternoon and tonight across the northern half of the Bay from Annapolis northward. However, the flow will turn west of south during this time, so that does lower confidence some. Will continue to monitor tide levels today to see if an advisory is needed.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 9am this morning to 6am EST Monday for VAZ503. WV...Wind Advisory from 9am this morning to 6am EST Monday for WVZ501-505.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm EST Monday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Monday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for ANZ535-538. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EST Monday for ANZ535- 536-538-542. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ536-542.