Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers With Isolated Tstms Late This Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Until Early Morning. Waves 1 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Light. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1039am EDT Wednesday Jun 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The next round of heavy showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be arriving between 11am and 2pm for areas west of the Blue Ridge and from 2pm to 6pm east of the Blue Ridge to the Chesapeake Bay. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and humid conditions return through Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. - 2) Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before chances for showers and storms return by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions return through Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. A subtle shortwave will approach during the afternoon. Current CAPE values are in the 1500 J/kg realm east of the Alleghenies to the Shenandoah Valley with 20-30 knots of wind shear. The next area of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will be crossing the Alleghenies in the next hour or so and result in an active afternoon for most from west to east. Damaging winds and hail could occur with strong to severe thunderstorms. Heavy downpours also may be imminent as precipitable water is in the 1.7 to 2 inch range west of the metros. Low-level southwesterly flow will continue to advect a hot and humid airmass into the area for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures climbing into the 90s and dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will result in heat indices climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s on both Thursday and Friday afternoon, likely nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some locations. Westerly downsloping winds may tend to lower dew points during peak heating, however. Upper-level ridging will be centered over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Thursday, with several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large impact on our forecast locally. If the timing/placement of any such disturbance is offset from peak heating, large scale subsidence could limit convective initiation. However, if it were to approach at/near peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast details on Thursday is lower than normal. Westerly downslope flow could inhibit convection as well, with the best initiation point closer to a surface trough or the bay breeze (I-95 corridor). What models are in good agreement about is that the background environment will be highly unstable. There will also be enough dry air in the mid levels to support strong downdrafts (high DCAPE), and just enough shear (around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer pulse/multicell severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, some of which could produce very strong winds if they do indeed develop and tap into the background environment. That threat for severe thunderstorms likely continues on Friday as a shortwave disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability might be slightly less (but still moderately strong). More widespread and potentially organized strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible as a result. Machine learning guidance is very bullish on the severe thunderstorm threat for both Thursday and Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming days. Stay tuned to later forecast updates. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before chances for showers and storms return by early next week. Drier air moves into the region on Saturday in the wake of a cold front bringing down heat risk overall as dewpoints drop back down to the upper 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will still remain elevated overall with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s likely. Upper-level zonal flow temporarily takes over through the weekend, although a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. There is uncertainty in exactly when this front gets here. Starting early next week, a deep upper-level trough starts to track through the Great Lakes region and towards the East Coast, bringing back elevated humidity as a strong cold front moves through the region. Surface low pressure will likely move through the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing more chances for widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms. Marine Southerly flow remains in place through this evening. Small Craft Advisories may need to be extended/reissued in somewhat marginal but stubborn southerly channeling through tonight. The next round of showers and intense thunderstorms will move into the waters later in the mid to later afternoon. Activity should clear the waters early this evening. SMWs may be needed, mainly this afternoon. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday. A surface pressure trough lingering near the waters may cause some variability between south and west. Special Marine Warnings may be needed on both Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening as thunderstorms move over the waters. There is a higher chance of more widespread storms Friday, but the overall environment is favorable for very gusty storms either day. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected through most of the weekend. Marginal SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may occur late Sunday in southerly flow as a cold front approaches. Northwest winds may become variable for a time before ultimately shifting southeast by Monday morning. Climate Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees above average Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily record values at some sites. Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday). ================================================================= June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 101 F (set in 1911) 74 F (set in 2020 +6 others) IAD 95 F (set in 2016) 72 F (set in 2005) BWI 99 F (set in 1911) 75 F (set in 1914) DMH 100 F (set in 1984) 79 F (set in 1984) NAK 96 F (set in 2000) 79 F (set in 1973) HGR 97 F (set in 1911) 73 F (set in 2005) MRB 101 F (set in 1911) 71 F (set in 1927 and 1922) CHO 99 F (set in 1911) 76 F (set in 2020) ================================================================= June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015) IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986) BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947) DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015) NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973) HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others) MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914) CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. |
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