Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain With Patchy Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
921pm EDT Monday September 25 2023
A strong area of high pressure builds in from the north for much of the work week. Most of the region is likely to remain wedged in to a cloudy, cool, and at times showery weather pattern as onshore winds develop through at least Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley Thursday and Friday bringing more widespread rain chances. Drier and slightly warmer conditions expected this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
With continued northeasterly flow patchy drizzle and light rain has developed over the area and is expected to continue through the night and become more widespread. Patchy fog is also possible overnight. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s for most of the area except for near the metros and the Chesapeake Bay where lows will hover around the low 60s.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
A remnant frontal zone and broad surface low off the Jersey coast will sag south into the area tomorrow. Conditions look to remain cloudy, with little to no sunshine as cloud cover holds steady. Noticeably cooler due to northeast winds keeping temps in the low to mid 60s. The increasing marine origin of the winds will result result in better rain chances, with on and off showers possible, mostly east of US-15.
The frontal boundary continues sliding south Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for rain chances to decrease by mid week. While mostly cloudy skies stick around, there is a better chance for some sun to peak through the clouds at times. Highs still below normal in the mid to upper 60s for Wednesday.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
Persistent onshore flow looks to continue through at least Saturday with cool, cloudy, and showery conditions. Slightly warmer weather late in the weekend into early next week.
Synoptically, not much of a change in the pattern with longwave troughing in the western U.S and strong downstream ridging wedged south into our region from eastern Canada. Underneath the ridge is a weak upper level trough and piece of shortwave energy that will cut across the Upper Midwest/Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. This will bring more widespread precipitation chances back to the area before high pressure reasserts itself for the upcoming weekend.
With the eastern Canada high pressure system wedged east of the Appalachains expect east to northeasterly onshore flow to persist. This will lead to an abundance of cloud cover each day especially in areas east of the Blue Ridge. Below normal temperatures will also continue with highs struggling to get out of the mid to upper 60s and low 70s for most locations.
Overall the airmass will remain stable even as shortwave energy crosses late Thursday into Friday. Although rain chances will be a bit more widespread, rainfall amounts appear to be light due to the cool and stable airmass in place. 12z ensemble guidance still holds onto a few members with heavier rainfall during the Thursday and Friday timeframe although 12z deterministic guidance remains consistent on a lighter event. For now, will go with a mesh of the two focusing on the fact that this will be another round of beneficial rainfall for our region.
The upper level trough pushes offshore late Friday into Saturday allowing upper level ridging to build east from the center part of the country. The wedge will be slow to erode Saturday before finally lifting out of here Sunday as heigheights rise across the region. As a result, expect more clouds than sun Saturday with more sun and slight warmer conditions Sunday into early next week.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac with increasing north-northeast winds. The Upper Tidal Potomac and Patapsco River zones were added to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) as confidence has increased in wind gusts to 20KT beginning overnight. These elevated winds continue through Tuesday evening. The pattern changes very little ahead which will encourage further breezy northeasterly winds through at least Wednesday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions appear possible at times in northeasterly flow Thursday through Saturday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds return with building high pressure late in the weekend into early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Tidal anomalies have begun to increase once more and are likely to continue climbing Tuesday into midweek as persistent northeasterly onshore flow remains. Sensitive sites such as Straits Point and Annapolis may reach caution stage in the next few tide cycles.
Coastal flooding concerns are possible Wednesday and Thursday as the gradient between high pressure and the upper level trough tightens over the area. This will lead to increased northeasterly onshore allowing for another excess push of water across the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac. Current 12z model projections have places like Straits Point and Annapolis reaching into minor flood stage during this time. There is even a window for moderate flooding at these locations although confidence in this is fairly low as we sit 48 hours out.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 2am Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ535-536-538-542.