Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1001am EDT Thu August 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Will monitor the 12Z high-resolution models to assess Friday's convective setup. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Low storm chances continue today with higher humidity and hotter temperatures. More storms Friday as the front sags south. - 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible between Sunday and Monday before becoming drier into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Low storm chances continue today with higher humidity and hotter temperatures. More storms Friday as the front sags south. It's another mostly dry day ahead with just a few spotty showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder toward the I-64 corridor. Skies are largely devoid of clouds with temperatures already pushing into the upper 70s to low 80s. Still monitoring the upper level ridge nearby over the central and southeastern U.S along with a nearby stalled front draped from the VA Tidewater westward into the TN/Ohio River Valleys. Pieces of energy will continue to traverse this boundary within west to northwest flow today through Friday. Confidence in timing and thunderstorm coverage is low for today given the heightened ridge with increasing chances Friday as the ridge flattens and front moves through. The earlier mentioned front will remain a focus for spotty showers this afternoon. The signal in high-resolution models is pretty weak, so it could easily remain dry today. This boundary will gradually lift back toward the north late tonight into Friday with another wave of low pressure set to push through. This will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region with a focus, especially along and south of I-66/US-50. Thunderstorm activity will likely occur during the peak heating period with locally damaging winds, frequent lightning, and isolated instances of flash flooding as the primary concerns. Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas along and south of US-33 in VA with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather. This aligns with machine learning/ AI guidance which suggests 5 to 15 percent probs for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. A lot of this will be dependent upon cloud cover and any interaction from potential MCSs diving across the central and lower Ohio River Valley and into far southern WV/southwest VA. Some guidance remains aggressive like the NAMnest while the HRRR, ARW, and NSSL remain more reasonable with coverage/magnitude. No washouts are expected although chances will increase during the peak heating period, especially south and west of the I-95 metro areas. High pressure builds from the north Friday night shunting the front further south of the region. This will allow for drier conditions to prevail along with a brief break in the humidity. Highs today will push into the mid 80s and low 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s east of the Alleghenies. Overnight lows will fall back into the upper 60s and low 70s with highs Friday into the 80s. Ample high pressure builds to the north of the region on Saturday shunting the front into the Carolinas. An onshore component to the wind could keep some additional cloud cover around with partly cloudy skies expected. Humidity will briefly drop with highs in the low to mid 80s (upper 80s in the city centers and 70s over the mountains). KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms possible between Sunday and Monday before becoming drier into early next week. Beginning Sunday, an upper-level perturbation forms over the Canadian Rockies and tracks eastward, with a stemming frontal boundary tracking across the East Coast late Sunday and into Monday. This boundary will likely bring chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms here in the Mid-Atlantic, although model guidance has been somewhat marginal on the severe potential for this event. As of the 18z ensemble runs, several outputs have the highest likelihood for severe weather just south of the area towards southern VA and the Carolinas, while the GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble runs still have a 15%-30% probability for severe weather centered within the region. Should any thunderstorms become severe, the most likely hazards will likely be gusty winds as well as locally heavy rainfall. As drought conditions continue to improve within the region, flooding potential becomes more of a concern with any heavy rainfall-producing thunderstorms that materialize. Otherwise, temperatures remain near-normal for mid-August, with humid conditions as well as temperatures ranging in the 80s and lower-90s at times near the metros. High pressure moves in around the Ohio River Valley, shifting surface winds coming out of the NW. Once that frontal boundary passes offshore by Tuesday, it could bring in some much needed relief to the humid conditions expected this weekend. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected today with an isolated shower or t- storm over the far southern waters. Overall no marine hazards today with the risk of Special Marine Warnings Friday afternoon as scattered to numerous storm chances are looking likely ahead of a crossing cold frontal boundary. Any storm will be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning. This front drops toward the Carolinas on Saturday as high pressure builds over the northeastern U.S. The resulting winds will mainly be out of the east to northeast. Gusts will mostly be in the 5 to 10 knot range today through Friday, while pushing up to 15 knots at times when channeling occurs (mainly over the open waters) SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed by Sunday afternoon as a cold front tracks through the region. Between Sunday & Monday, gusty showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters. Winds diminish once the front passes through late Monday. Southeast winds shift northwest by Monday evening in the wake of the front. Tides / Coastal Flooding Water levels will slowly elevate in the next couple of days. This brings a more sensitive location like Annapolis into Action Stage for the Friday morning high tide. However, there remains no discernible threat for coastal flooding this week. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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