Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Ne Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Diminishing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 321pm EDT Wednesday September 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for St. Mary's and Anne Arundel counties through Wednesday morning with additional warnings possible for Alexandria and Dahlgren given increasing water levels. Precipitation chances decrease through this evening with improving weather conditions Thursday. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remaining damp and cool through tonight with drier conditions and more sun to finish out the workweek. - 2) Remaining breezy while turning warmer this weekend despite uncertainty in regards to impacts from coastal Nor'easter nearby. KEY MESSAGE 1... Remaining damp and cool through tonight with drier conditions and more sun to finish out the workweek. Conditions will continue to improve tonight into Thursday as drier air filters in from the northeast. The CAD wedge is currently at it's peak yielding some lingering pockets of drizzle/light showers mainly along and south of I-66/US-50 into central VA and the southern Shenandoah Valley. Strong 1040 mb high pressure over southeast Quebec will continue to strengthen tonight into Thursday allowing more dry air into the region. At the same time, low pressure will begin to strengthen off the Delmarva/NC coast before riding north toward southern New England as a pretty impressive Nor'aster Friday into Saturday. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, expect pockets of drizzle and passing showers confined to locations west of the Blue Ridge and down into central VA. Elsewhere conditions will remain mostly dry with overcast conditions continuing. Some brightening in the clouds may be noted up across northeast MD as drier air continues to filter in. Highs this afternoon will peak in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in tonight into the upper 40s and mid 50s. Winds will remain gusty out of the northeast, with gusts to around 20-30 mph possible at times to the east of the Blue Ridge. Drier weather returns Thursday and Friday although breezy conditions will remain as the upper level trough axis passes overhead. This will lead to more clouds than sunshine Thursday with better clearing Friday as more subsidence works into the region. Coastal low pressure will continue to deepen off the Delmarva coast leading to gusty north to northeast winds for both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Gale conditions will be likely across the open and middle waters as well as out along the Atlantic coast given the tightened pressure gradient. Temperatures will stay below normal as a result, with highs in the 60s tomorrow, and then upper 60s to near 70 on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy and warmer this weekend, but forecast remains uncertain as Nor'easter impacts Northeast U.S. Anomalously strong surface ridge (by late September standards) finally weakens this weekend as a strong Nor'easter develops off the coast of Southern New England/LI. Ensemble members still show quite a bit of spread regarding the exact track of the Nor'easter. A few members show the possibility the low tracks closer to the NJ / Delmarva coast this weekend. Regardless of exact position, we are likely to be on the drier (subsidence) side of the system with northwest winds bringing in breezy, warmer, and mostly dry conditions. If the Nor'easter tracks closer to our area that could bring some rain chances to the area, especially along/east of I-95, along with the potential for increasing winds. Safe to say that there isn't a definite trend for this weekend, so be sure to keep track of the forecast for any changes in the coming days. The Nor'easter is eventually pushed offshore at the start of next week as high pressure builds in from the OH Valley and Great Lakes. Mid-level ridging builds over much of the eastern CONUS during the middle of next week, marking the return of much warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions. Marine High end Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters with Gale Warnings in effect for the surrounding waters around southern MD through tonight. High end Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters Thursday through Thursday night for continued gusty north to northeast flow. Additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are needed in gusty north to northeast flow Friday. High-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to Gales are possible this weekend over the waters, especially in the Chesapeake Bay due to the strong Nor'easter that will be off the coast. If the low tracks closer to our area, expect higher gusts over the waters. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, so be sure to check back as conditions become more certain through the week. Tides / Coastal Flooding A long duration coastal flood event is expected through the weekend within persistent onshore flow. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for St. Mary's and Annapolis through the next few high tide cycles. At Alexandria, a Coastal Flood Advisory today through Thursday morning is followed with a Coastal Flood Watch Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. At Dahlgren and Solomons Island, Coastal Flood Advisories extend through Thursday night. Anomalies will be lower further north on the Bay, but we'll need to keep an eye on Baltimore and Havre de Grace Friday into the weekend, as well as DC on the Upper Tidal Potomac. Decisions will likely need to be made this afternoon and evening regarding whether any additional warnings or advisories are needed. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5am Thursday to 9am EDT Friday for DCZ001. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Warning from 11pm this evening to 11am EDT Friday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Warning from 9pm this evening to 5pm EDT Friday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am EDT Friday for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT Thursday for VAZ054. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for ANZ530>532-535- 536-538>540. Gale Warning until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Thursday to 6am EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. |
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