Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Se Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Becoming W Late. Waves 1 Ft. Rain. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
|Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
|Mon...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se. Waves 1 Ft.
|Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely Through The Night. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401am EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Low pressure will drift northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight, then depart out to sea Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in its wake late Sunday through Monday. A cold front will then approach from the Ohio River Valley as waves of low pressure approach from the Gulf Coast Tuesday through Friday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Current water vapor imagery shows a well defined shortwave trough tracking through the Ohio Valley, with a plume of deep moisture streaming northward along the East Coast. At the surface, low pressure is situated along the edge of the cold air damming wedge near the NC/SC border, and will continue to track northeastward this morning along a developing frontal zone. Low- level warm/moist advection and resultant overrunning downstream of the approaching trough/north of the surface low is producing a large precipitation shield that extends from the Carolinas to Upstate NY. This precipitation shield will continue to fill in as it lifts northward across the area this morning, leading to a soaking rainfall for all. Precipitation will come to an end from southwest to northeast late this morning through the mid- afternoon hours as low pressure tracks across the forecast area. By the time the rain is over, most locations should receive around a half inch to an inch of rain.
Even after the rain departs, low clouds will remain through the afternoon. Patchy drizzle may also be possible at times. Despite the rainy conditions, temperatures will run above normal, with highs in the 50s to near 60 for most.
Low pressure will lift off to our northeast tonight, but a broken deck of low clouds is expected to linger across the area. Winds will be relatively light, and some patchy fog may form toward daybreak for locations that develop breaks in the cloud cover. It will be a mild night, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
A combination of upper level ridging and low pressure at the surface will result in dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will run well above normal beneath a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will remain light, with highs in the 60s for most (50s in the mountains).
High pressure will lift off to our north and east Sunday night into Monday. In response, light easterly flow will develop at low levels. An increasingly marine air mass will be transported into the area within easterly flow. As a result, low clouds, and/or drizzle may form Sunday night. These low clouds may potentially linger through much of the day Monday, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Depending on how thick the cloud cover is, there could be a wide range of potential temperatures Monday, with ensemble guidance showing anywhere from the low 50s to just shy of 70 for highs. Some light showers or drizzle may be possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, with dry conditions expected further west.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Every period of the Long Term part of the forecast has the potential to see at least some precipitation. Given above to well above normal temperatures, this precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain except perhaps for a few wet snowflakes mixing it at the highest elevations of the Alleghenies late next week.
A large trough moving from the central to eastern CONUS will dominate the weather much of next week, and will be responsible for the unsettled weather locally. A cold front will slowly approach from the Ohio River Valley during the middle to latter part of next week, with multiple waves of low pressure riding along and ahead of it up the East Coast.
Given the orientation and strength of the large scale wind pattern, moisture will be on the increase. Although no one period looks to have particularly excessive moisture or rainfall, the potential exists for a round or two of somewhat heavier rain as each of these waves of low pressure cross given their origins near the Gulf Coast.
As mentioned earlier, temperatures will be above to well above normal much of next week. This translates to high temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 40s.
Low pressure will track over the waters this morning into early this afternoon, before lifting off to our north and east tonight. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected in easterly flow just in advance of the low this morning into early this afternoon. A few gusts approaching low-end Gale force may briefly be possible this morning over the widest waters of the middle Bay, but cold water temperatures are expected to keep the strongest gusts just above the surface. Winds will be light and variable on Sunday, and then light out of the east on Monday.
Onshore flow is forecast heading into the middle of next week. These winds are expected to strengthen by late Wednesday as a wave of low pressure passes nearby, raising the prospects for SCAs.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ530>532-539>541. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ533- 534-537-542-543. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ535-538. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ536.