Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Sw. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221pm EDT Fri April 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Low clouds and areas of dense fog continue to burn off with a few spotty showers and isolated t-storms developing over the mountains this afternoon. Near record temperatures for some today and again Saturday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday. 2) A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall, falling temperatures, and breezy conditions. 3) Cooler temperatures expected next week along with surface high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek. KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday. Continue to watch the erosion process of the CAD wedge this afternoon east of the Alleghenies as a warm front lifts north across the region. Low clouds will likely hang over north-central MD through 3pm with improvements heading later into the afternoon. Elsewhere, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected as deep south to southwesterly flow increases. Synoptically, not too much of a change in the near term period. Still monitoring the progression of a stalled boundary set to lift back to the north as a warm front later this afternoon and cold front back toward the Ohio River Valley. The warm front is currently draped from Cumberland/Hancock, MD south to Culpeper/Fredericksburg, VA. North of the boundary low clouds remain with temps ranging from the low 50s over northeast MD to around 70 in northern VA. Areas south of boundary have cleared out completely with deep south/southwesterly mixing ongoing allowing temperatures to push toward 80 degrees. Not a drastic range in highs today as the CAD wedge erodes. Expect most areas to see highs in the low to mid 80s while locations such as northeast MD/mountains see highs in the 70s. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may impact areas along and west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon as the front lifts back to the north. Some showers have been noted over western PA, north-central WV, and far western MD earlier this morning as the front sits nearby. Expect this area to have the greatest confidence for additional showers and perhaps an isolated strong to severe t-storm this afternoon given the presiding front and orographic lift from the terrain. Any convection will gradually wane after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. South to southwest winds will gusts 15 to 25 mph this afternoon before decreasing a bit overnight. Mild temperatures will continue tonight with widespread lows holding in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. We may even challenge a few record high minimum temperatures at some sites (see Climate section below for details). The warmth continues Saturday with highs likely to push well into the 80s areawide. Mid to upper 80s cannot be ruled out over the metros and across the central VA Piedmont due in part to the lack of low cloud cover/fog compared to what we saw this morning. Such temperatures would challenge record high temperatures for the date (see Climate section). A few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out once again during the afternoon and evening hours, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Once again coverage should be low given the warm front to the north over central PA and cold front still back across the eastern part of the Ohio River Valley. Any storms that do get going could be strong to severe given the increased instability and subtle shear across the region. Storm Prediction Center continues a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for locations along and west of I-81 with damaging winds and small hail as the primary threats. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall, falling temperatures, and breezy conditions. Widespread rain chances return from west to east Easter Sunday as an area of low pressure passes well to our north dragging it's associated cold front through the region. Current 12z deterministic/ensemble guidance is a bit quicker with the incumbent front and slightly lower on rain totals during the Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon period. Most of the guidance still illustrates a stratiform rain shield out ahead of the boundary early Sunday morning which should limit any severe weather threat. The front looks to push into the Alleghenies and locations west of I-81 between 6-12z Sunday before advancing east toward the metros and points east between 12-18z. Rain will be steady at times with overall amounts between a quarter to a half an inch. Any rain will help given ongoing drought concerns and continued green up across the region. The front will push east of the area by mid to late Sunday afternoon with breezy conditions and falling temperatures in it's wake. Expect highs ranging from the 50s over the mountains to low 70s in the metro areas. Winds will shift to the west to northwest behind the front, and skies should gradually clear out from west to east. Much cooler air will start to filter in by Sunday night, as temperatures fall back into the 30s and 40s. KEY MESSAGE 3... Cooler temperatures expected next week along with surface high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek. Low pressure passes to our north on Tuesday, followed closely by a broad area of high pressure originating from Canada. This will likely cause elevated surface winds throughout the region as that gradient moves through. Zonal flow takes over after Wednesday, and persistent high pressure will cause drier conditions as well as a prolonged period of cooler temperatures. Highs by Wednesday will likely range in the 50s, with lows potentially reaching well below freezing for much of the region. Temperatures may start to increase somewhat later in the week as a front passes to our north. Marine SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for all waters through this afternoon and for the main channel of the bay through tonight. This is due in part to southerly channeling under increased south to southwesterly flow. Gusts up to 25 kts are expected. Winds remain southerly tonight through Sunday morning, with additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and northwest behind a strong cold front on Sunday. Northwesterly flow continues through the day Monday, with gusts potentially nearing low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday morning. Northwest winds gust up to 20 knots Monday morning with Small Craft Advisories likely. Winds diminish in the afternoon through the overnight. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots make SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely on Tuesday as a strong gradient pushes through. Winds will shift southeasterly on Wednesday and will begin to decrease then as high pressure moves into the region. Tides / Coastal Flooding Anomalies continue to slowly increase within southerly flow, and will remain slightly elevated through Saturday. A few locations may reach Action stage over the next few tide cycles, but no flooding is expected. Anomalies will decrease late Sunday into early next week as winds turn northwesterly. Climate Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast for through Saturday. Below is a list of record daily temperatures for our regional climate sites. Record Daily Highs for April 3 Site High/Year(s) Set DCA 87/1963 BWI 88/1963 IAD 86/1981 DMH 89/1963 NAK 84/1912 HGR 85/1963 MRB 88/1963 CHO 88/1963 Record Daily High and Warm Lows for April 4 Site High/Year(s) Set Warm Low/Year(s) Set DCA 85/2011 66/1981 BWI 86/2011 63/1892 IAD 85/2011 63/1981 DMH 87/2011 66/2025 NAK 83/2011 60/2025 HGR 81/2011 60/1974 MRB 85/2011 63/1981 CHO 88/2011 64/1974 Period of Record (POR) context... .Washington DC area (DCA)... Weather records for the Washington DC area have been recorded at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA) since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from 1871 to 1944. Temperature records for the Washington DC area extend back to January 1872. .Baltimore MD area (BWI)... Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at what is now Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1950, and observations taken in downtown Baltimore from 1871 through 1949. Temperature records for the Baltimore MD area extend back to July 1872. .Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD)... Weather records for the Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area have been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official record consists solely of data recorded at the airport. .Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH)... Weather records for the Baltimore Downtown MD area have been recorded at what is now the Maryland Science Center (KDMH) since 1999. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1999, and observations taken in the City of Baltimore from July 1950 through 1998. Data is missing from June 3 of 2020 through August 14 of 2022 when the observing system had to be removed due to a large construction project. .Annapolis MD area (NAK)... Weather records for the Annapolis MD area have been recorded at what is now the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy (KNAK) since October 11 of 2001. The official weather record consists of that data back to 2001, and observations that were taken between the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy and the Annapolis Police Barracks from July of 1894 through October 10 of 2001. .Hagerstown MD area (HGR).... Weather records for the Hagerstown MD area have been recorded at what is now Hagerstown Regional Airport (KHGR) since October of 1998. The official weather record consists of that data back to October of 1998, and observations taken one mile east of Hagerstown from 1899 through September of 1998. .Martinsburg WV area (MRB)... Weather records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd Field (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943. .Charlottesville VA area (CHO)... Weather records for the Charlottesville VA area have been recorded at what is now Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO) since April 20 of 1961. The official weather record consists of that data back to April 20 of 1961, and observations taken two miles west of downtown Charlottesville from 1983 through April 19 of 1961. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ530- 535>538-542. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534- 539>541-543. |
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