Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts To 25 Kt Late Afternoon. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
901am PDT Wednesday July 6 2022
Another cool day with plenty of morning low clouds. A warming trend will start Thursday and continue into the weekend, primarily affecting inland areas as the sea breeze and coastal stratus should continue to cool coastal areas. There will be weak sundowners each evening for the next few days in Santa Barbara County.
Short Term - Today through Friday
The coastal stratus is slow to clear this morning, but models show skies should be clear to the beaches by noon. Morning temperatures are within a couple of degrees either side of yesterday's, and we are on track for a similarly cooler-than- average day today.
***From Previous Discussion***
The marine layer is 1200 ft deep and there is moderate onshore flow to the east along with weak onshore flow to the north. Marine layer stratus aided by the onshore flow and weak trough.ing aloft will work its way into most of the coasts and vlys by dawn (The Santa Clarita Vly and most of the SBA south coast will be the exceptions.) The onshore flow, marine layer and lower than normal 500 mb hgts will all combine to lower most temps by 1 to 3 degrees (the mtns and Antelope Vly may warm a few degrees). Max temps today will come in 4 to 8 degrees below normal.
Moderate NW flow near Pt Conception will produce another sundowner. While the wind gusts will be close to advisory levels it looks like they will come just under the thresholds.
Pressure gradients and the cyclonic flow aloft will not change much on Thursday morning so there should be similar coastal and vlys marine layer coverage. 2 mb offshore trends and slight hgts rises in the afternoon will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most of the area.
There will be another sundowner Thursday night as the Pt Conception NW winds will continue. Higher hgts will smoosh the marine layer some and weaker onshore flow will limit the low clouds forward progress.
Friday will be a sunny day save for the morning low clouds along the coasts. A large high pressure system over Texas will expand to the west and hgts will rise to 590 dam. While current ensemble runs are not as warm as they were a few days ago, it will still be a warm day. Weaker onshore flow and the 590 dam hgts will combine to produce max temps 3 to 6 degrees above normal at locations away from the near shore locations.
Long Term - Saturday through Tuesday
Friday's upper high will shift to the west and strengthen. It will settle over the 4 corners region which is a fairly classic summertime pattern.
There will not be too much marine layer Sat and Sunday as the higher hgts will smoosh the marine layer low enough to preclude vly penetration. There will also not be too much onshore flow. Still the capping inversion will be very strong and this could slow and/or hinder clearing at the beaches. Ensembles do not show much warming on Saturday but indicate 2 to 4 degree of warming for all areas except for the Central Coast on Sunday.
There is a pretty big ensemble spread in the temps for early next week and the ensemble mean keep temps about the same as Sunday's on Monday and Tue. There are a more than few ensemble solutions that are much warmer inland (increased onshore flow will actually bring cooling to the coasts). Still most non coastal areas will be above normal for most of next week.
Anytime an upper high is parked over the 4 corners there is always a threat of monsoon flow. Both deterministic and ensemble mdls, however, do not show any moisture transport beyond eastern CA. Still will have to keep an eye on this.
Small craft advisory (SCA) winds are expected to return by later this afternoon for the southern and central Outer Waters and continue overnight (SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in effect during this time). There will be a lull in winds before widespread and possibly stronger winds build across all outer waters Friday and continue into the weekend. There is a 50 percent chance of Gales focused across the northern outer waters later Friday into the weekend and a 30-50 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds for the coastal waters along the Central Coast and 20-30 percent chance for western Santa Barbara Channel.
Elevated high tides near 7 feet along with a potential southerly swell during the middle part of next week may lead to minor flooding to coastal sections of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4pm this afternoon to 8 am PDT Thursday for zones 673-676.