Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft Dominant Period 11 Seconds.
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 11 Seconds.
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 9 Seconds.
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
|Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 14 Seconds, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft At 13 Seconds In The Afternoon. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell Nw 2 To 4 Ft And S 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 4 To 6 Ft And S 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
506pm PST Wednesday Feb 21 2024
The storm has passed and look for dry conditions and a two day warming trend Thursday and Friday with some light offshore winds. Partly to mostly cloudy but dry conditions will develop over the weekend. Rain is expected to return Sunday night into Monday, followed by dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
Short Term - Today through Saturday
The storm has passed but it has left behind a moist airmass and very saturated soil. Models are showing a weak trough and pva coming through the area Thursday. No rain expected but likely quite a bit of stratocumulus clouds through the day. May start off with some morning stratus but the marine inversion will be very weak so it won't be a solid layer.
Following the passage of that weak trough, a strong ridge will develop over the west coast Friday ahead of a cutoff low developing over between 130 and 140w. At the same time, rising surface pressures across the Great Basin will set the stage for a light Santa Ana pattern that will warm the area several degrees. It's possible that the saturated soils will contribute enough low level moisture to generate some morning low clouds, despite the offshore flow. Temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer but the lingering low level moisture may offset the warming we typically get from offshore flow and ridging aloft.
Ridging remains for Saturday, though weaker than Friday as the upper low offshore deepens and introduces some cooler air aloft. Main impacts will be slightly cooler temperatures across coast and valleys but still very pleasant and slightly above normal for winter.
Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday
The trough to the west will begin to move towards the southern California coast Sunday leading to more cooling and increasing clouds. Most of the ensembles hold off any rain chances until at least Sunday evening for SLO County and Monday morning in LA County. The current blended solution keeps 6 hour probability of precipitation in the 30-40% range through Monday, but factoring in timing uncertainties, the actual chance of rain sometime during the Sunday night and Monday period is really closer to 80-90% area- wide, which matches up well with the GEFS/EPS ensemble solutions. The only factor that would lower probability of precipitation is if the storm end up digging too far south but only a couple solutions favor that scenario.
In any case, this is not an AR storm so rain amounts are expected to be closer to the typical southern California winter rain events. A majority of the ensemble solutions are showing rain amounts around an inch or less across lower elevation areas, which means up to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. Minimal snow impacts with snow levels again at or above 7000 feet.
Dry weather expected to return Tuesday and continue through at least Thursday.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50-70% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across PZZ673/676 this afternoon/evening. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late tonight through Sunday. On Monday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southerly winds, especially north of Point Conception.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas will remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. On Monday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southerly winds.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Thursday for zones 673-676.