Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Combined Seas 8 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Local Gusts To 30 Kt. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 8 To 11 Ft Dominant Period 10 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 10 Seconds, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds After Midnight. |
| Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 13 Seconds. Rain. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. Mixed Swell Nw 4 To 6 Ft And S 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1001pm PST Monday Nov 28 2022 Synopsis 28/826 PM. Significantly cooler week ahead, coldest Wednesday morning with areas of near to sub-freezing temperatures. Localized light rain chances through Wednesday, then moderate widespread rain likely at times Thursday through Sunday. Gusty northerly tonight, with light offshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday. Short Term - Monday through Thursday 28/823 PM. Inside slider brought sharp increase in onshore trends today, along with rapid deepening of a moist layer up to around 5000 feet across LA county. Satellite imagery showing considerable cloud coverage up to the coastal slopes this evening across LA and eastern Ventura counties, with cooler air and windy conditions upstream mixing out most of the clouds to the northwest. The cyclonic low level upslope flow will continue to bring a threat of light showers to the eastern San Gabriels and adjacent foothills. As of 8 pm, already seeing a few automated gauges begin to measure some light rainfall in that area. Also, increasing northwest upslope flow will bring increased clouds and a chance of light rain/snow showers tonight into early Tuesday morning across north facing mountain slopes, mainly near the Kern County line. Snow levels will lower to around 4500 feet, and some of the mountain roads could see up to an inch accumulation. Wind advisories remain in effect tonight for the LA/Ventura county mountains (mainly near I-5 corridor), Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara county where wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common. The winds will turn northeasterly on Tuesday and weaken, but will remain locally breezy through Wednesday especially over the mountain areas of all 4 counties and some valleys. This will help coastal and valley areas bump up a few degrees, but keep mountains and interior areas cool. This will also keep skies clear and dry out the air mass. These two ingredients will allow Wednesday morning to be the coldest of the week, with sub-freezing temperatures possible in the Santa Ynez Valley, and likely for the interior valleys. *** From previous discussion *** Attention then turns to the first of two storms expected later this week. A weak low, currently over northern British Columbia, will strengthen and dip south into northern California Thursday afternoon. A cold front associated with the low will sweep through the West Coast. Before that front moves through the southern half of the state Thursday night and Friday, some moist southwest flow may result in light pre-frontal showers during the day on Thursday especially Santa Barbara and southward. For the rest of the storm, read on.. Long Term - Friday through Monday 28/229 PM. A cold front will move through the southern half of California Thursday Night through Friday morning, plus or minus 6 hours. With moderate southerly flow and precipitable water readings near 1.2 inches, expecting widespread moderate rain over the region and locally heavy rain possible. The EPS ensemble system is in good agreement with 80% of its members showing 1 to 2 inches of rain. There are some lighter outliers, but even those show some rain. The majority of the GEFS ensembles however show light amounts generally in the 0.10 to 0.50 inch range, with only about 20% showing over an inch. With that said, confidence is high for widespread rain. Amounts are trickier, but leaning toward the usually better European model with 1 to 2 inches in general the more likely scenario. This would also result in higher amounts in the mountain and foothills. Sticking with 2 to 4 inches at this point there, but could see those amounts up to double that if the forecast holds. With the southerly flow, snow levels will be well above 7000 feet for the bulk of the precipitation, but could lower to 6000 feet on the back side of the front. As such, a healthy amount of snow is expected at the resort levels, with little below that. After a short break, moderate confidence for another storm coming after sometime over the weekend. The EPS and GEFS are at odds again, with the EPS favoring a weaker system than the first (about half the rain amount) while the GEFS favoring a wetter solution. Regardless, more rain is looking favorable with lower snow levels. Marine 28/1000 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the forecast. Gale Warnings will continue tonight, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds likely lingering into Tuesday morning. Winds should then fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in the afternoon. However, seas may remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Tuesday afternoon. Expect conditions to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level Tuesday night thru Wednesday night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level S winds are expected Thu and Thu night, with a 40% chance of reaching Gale force by late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in the forecast. Winds will remain SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this evening, then will drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by late tonight. There is a 30% chance that seas will remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru mid morning Tue. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected Tuesday night thru Thu morning, then SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level S winds are likely Thu afternoon and Thu night. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level W to NW winds will likely continue across western portions of the SBA Channel through late tonight. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Thursday morning. There is a 60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level SE-S winds late Thu into early Fri. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6am PST Tuesday for zones 53-54-349-351-352. Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PST tonight for zone 59. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Tuesday for zones 645-650. Gale Warning in effect until 6am PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. |
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