Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Combined Seas 4 To 5 Ft Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 3 To 5 Ft At 13 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 8 Seconds.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Mixed Swell W 3 To 5 Ft At 14 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 1 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. W Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Patchy Fog.|
| 238 AM PST Fri Jan 28 2022 |
Synopsis for the southern California coast and Santa Barbara Channel including the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and National Park - PZZ600
at 09Z, or 1 AM PST, a 1048 MB high was located over Idaho. Gusty NE winds will affect Santa Ana wind prone areas of the inner waters tonight through Friday morning.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
342am PST Fri Jan 28 2022
Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected today and to a lesser degree on Saturday. A cooling trend is expected next week as high pressure weakens but no rain is expected.
Short Term - Today through Sunday
The current LAX-DAG offshore pressure gradient is -6.7 mb, and it is forecast to bottom out around -7 to -8 mb this morning. The strong offshore gradient supports the start of our Santa Ana wind event. Gusty northeast winds have already developed over the higher topography in the region along the typical Santa Ana spots with gusts into the 40-50 mph range common. The strongest winds so far are at Warm Springs in the LA County mountains, with gusts to 74 mph.
Ample cold air advection is present with these offshore winds, so despite the dryness of the air (teens to single digit RHs) and typical compressional warming, temperatures will struggle to warm today from the Antelope Valley through the Santa Clarita Valley to the Ventura County Coast. As is typical with cold Santa Ana wind events, gusty east winds will likely affect the coastal waters, easily reaching the Channel Islands. Winds will start decreasing to below Advisory Levels for most areas by this evening. However, Wind Advisories were extended until noon Saturday for the Ventura County valleys, the Santa Clarita Valley, and L.A. County mountains to cover locations where strong winds are likely to linger.
Tonight, chilly temperatures in the mid 20s to 30 degrees are expected for the Antelope Valley, in part due to the new dry airmass. Cooling may be limited by increasing high clouds as an upper level low approaches the area. Clouds continue to increase into Saturday, and the Santa Ana winds will die off through the day. Temperatures will be cooler for most of the area Saturday due to the influence of the upper level low. However, the Antelope Valley to the Ventura County Valleys should see a few degrees of warming due to the lack of cold air advection.
A small ridge develops on Sunday in the wake of Saturdays upper low passage. Skies will clear. Max temps will jump 4 to 8 degrees due to the higher hgts and ample sunshine.
Long Term - Monday through Thursday
The GFS and EC deterministic solutions are in good agreement in the extended periods. Also their respective ensemble members show only a minimal amount of spread. Taken together these two things indicate a better than average confidence in the xtnd forecast.
Synoptically the west coast will find itself on the western end of a a broad trough which covers two thirds of the CONUS. In general dry NW flow will be overhead but on Tuesday a weak trough will ripple down the CA/NC line and set up some offshore flow.
Onshore flow will rule the day on Monday and Tuesday and it along with the cyclonic turning aloft should be enough to gin up a coastal marine layer stratus deck. Otherwise skies will be partly ocnl mostly cloudy as mid and high level clouds drift overhead. The lower hgts and onshore flow will combine to bring some cooling each day and by Tuesday most coastal and vly max temps will be a few degrees below normal.
Wednesday and Thursday will be offshore days as high pressure builds into the great basin. Max temps will rise each day across the csts and vlys. Long range gradient forecasts indicate about 3 to 4 mb of offshore flow which could generate a low end advisory event but nothing really of note.
For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NE winds are expected to the north of San Nicolas Island this morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the period.
For the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds are expected from Ventura to Malibu and out to Anacapa/Santa Cruz Islands through this afternoon. There is a 30% chance these winds could continue into the evening. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are not expected through the period.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 4pm PST this afternoon for zones 40-41-46-53-547.
Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Saturday for zones 44-45-54-88.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zones 650-655-676.
Hazard Potential Outlook (Sunday - Thursday)
There is a chance of gusty northerly winds by the middle of next week.