Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands Marine Forecast
Today...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 11 Seconds. |
Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 4 To 6 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Strongest Nw Of San Nicolas Island. Combined Seas 5 To 7 Ft Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Local Gusts To 25 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Local Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
Fri...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Local Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog. |
Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Combined Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 523am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 Synopsis 19/401 AM. An upper-level trough will continue to exit the region through Wednesday. Any shower activity should remain confined to the mountains today, but a stray shower drifting into the Southland valleys cannot be ruled out. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the week before a weak storm system brings gusty winds, light showers, and cooler weather for the weekend and into early next week. Short Term - Today through Thursday 19/407 AM. Low clouds and fog have pushed into the beaches on the Central Coast, and will spread farther inland this morning, possibly reaching the Santa Ynez Valley by daybreak. Fog will be locally dense. S of Pt. Conception, skies were clear, although some low clouds off the coast could push into immediate beach areas of Ventura County/southern SBA County for a few hours this morning. Local dense fog may develop in the valleys of VTU County and western L.A. County. Any low clouds should clear by mid morning. The pesky upper low that has affected the region for the past few days was centered in southeastern CA early this morning. It will move eastward into Central Arizona this afternoon. Mid level clouds associated with some fading convection were pushing across Central Riverside and San Bernardino Counties this morning. While any lingering shower activity will likely fizzle out before it gets to the forecast area, some mid and high clouds could survive the trip. It also represents an area of increased moisture in the 700 to 500 mb layer that will push into the region from the east today. The WRF shows good instability across the region this afternoon and early this evening especially in L.A./VTU Counties. However, there will be somewhat less in the way of moisture than there was Mon. In addition, there is no significant mid or upper level feature (such as a strong vort) that will act as a trigger for any storms. Therefore, showers/tstorms that develop this afternoon should be mainly due to orographic ascent of the northeasterly flow into the mountains. The slight chance of showers/tstorms in the mountains of L.A./VTU Counties and the Antelope Valley certainly looks warranted. With NE flow thru a deep layer, there is a chance that some showers could drift into the foothills and interior valley areas of VTU/L.A. Counties, especially the Santa Clarita/San Gabriel Valleys. Overall, however, expect less in the way of shower/tstorm activity today, especially west of the mountains. Shower/tstorms should end quickly after sunset. Increasing onshore flow may bring slight cooling today, especially to the coastal plain, but this may be offset to some extent by rising heights. Overall, max temps should be a few degrees above normal in most areas, with 80 degrees a possibility once again in the warmest valley locations. The upper low will continue to move E tonight and Wed, finally losing its influence on our weather, and a positively-tilted ridge will push into the region. There should be fairly widespread low clouds and fog in coastal areas tonight/Wednesday morning as the marine inversion become reestablished. Some clouds may move into lower valley areas Wednesday morning. Skies should clear in most areas mid to late morning. Heigheights will rise across the area Wed, so expect a couple of degrees of warming in the mtns and Antelope Valley. However, increasing onshore flow will offset any warming west of the mountains, and may bring a few degrees of cooling to the coastal plain. The upper ridge will move east of the area and flatten out Wednesday night, then another weak flat ridge will Probability of Precipitation up across the region Thu, so heigheights will end up changing very little. Expect night thru morning low clouds in coastal and valley areas, and possibly in the valley, with mostly sunny skies Thu afternoon. Max temps on Thu should be similar to those on Wednesday in most areas, generally a slightly above normal for this time of year. Long Term - Friday through Monday 19/520 AM. A large upper low will move into the eastern Pacific Thu night and Fri, and will be located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Oregon Fri afternoon, with a broad trough to its south. The flow aloft across the region will become southwesterly Fri, and mid and high clouds will increase. Lowering heigheights and thicknesses should bring a few degrees of cooling to the region Fri. For Sat thru Mon, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast. The 06Z operational run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) shows the trough digging a bit, with a weakening surface front moving across the forecast area Sat. This would bring a slight chance of rain to northern areas Fri night and a chance of rain to most of the forecast area Sat. It then shows another upper low dropping southward through the eastern Pacific Sat night, tracking well to the southwest of the area Sun, with drier NW flow on Mon. This could bring another period of rain Sat night and Sunday (though rain could stay mostly off the coast), with dry weather Mon. This is farther west than its 00Z run which brought a better shot of rain to the area late Sat night and Sun, lingering into early Mon. The 00Z operational run of the EC is very similar thru Sat, with a weakening front likely bringing some rain to the region, but is farther east with the following system, and maintains a chance of rain Sunday into early Mon. All ensemble members show measurable rain this weekend, but timing of the the best chances of rain is very much in question. In addition, while there is some spread with respect to total rainfall, nearly all ensembles keep amounts on the light side. Will likely have to wait a couple of days for the models to get a better handle on this complex pattern. Marine 19/303 AM. For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is a 50-70 percent of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds through at least early Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a moderate chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds Friday and Friday night, then there is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Saturday through the early half of next week. There is a moderate chance of GALES during this period, especially from near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. Inside the southern California bight, there is a 20-40 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds each afternoon and evening through Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for Friday, then there is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and a high (50-60 percent) chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas pushing inside the bight over the weekend. There is a low-to-moderate chance of GALES during this period. Patchy dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or less is possible this morning, especially along off the Central Coast, into the Santa Barbara Channel, and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 9 pm PDT this evening for zone 645. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Wednesday for zone 670. Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 3 am PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. |