Marine Weather Net

Cape Mendocino to Point Arena CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ455 Forecast Issued: 901 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
Rest Of Today...Nw Wind 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas Around 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 10 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 17 Seconds.
Tonight...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas Around 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 9 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Tue...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Tue Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Wed...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Wed Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Thu...Nw Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds.
Thu Night...Nw Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds.
Fri...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 13 Seconds.
Fri Night...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
344am PDT Monday Jun 24 2024

Synopsis
Interior warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday while marine stratus dampens coastal temperatures. An upper level disturbance mid-week will allow for relatively cooler temperatures through Thursday. Warming trend returns for this weekend into next week.

Coastal stratus is slowly beginning to expand beyond the Eel River Delta/Humboldt Bay area this morning beneath a shallow marine inversion. HREF still has a strong signature indicative of thickening stratus extending up to the Del Norte and Southern Mendocino coasts after 6 am, although ceilings will likely be limited to around 1000-1500 feet. Surface wind gust probabilities significantly reduced today as the coastal pressure gradient begins to diminish. HREF only indicating 15-25 mph gusts on coastal headlands (Point Saint George, Cape Mendo and Pt Arena) while lee coasts are slightly shielded.

Once again, coastal highs will remain dampened by marine stratus redevelopment while hot temperatures are forecast for the interior. NBM probabilities are favoring highs in the low to mid 90's and approaching/reaching 95-98 degrees again in the valleys of Southern Mendocino, Lake and eastern Trinity counties - slightly reduced a few degrees compared to this weekend. This pattern is expected to remain largely consistent through Tuesday with daily surges in diurnally driven NW flow.

Echoing the previous discussion, both GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM continue to highlight a SE surge of mid-level subtropical moisture in 500-700 RH analysis beginning early Tuesday morning. NAM model soundings show 100-300 J/KG MU Cape, aligning with weak signatures of hi-res ARW simulated reflectivity in SE Mendocino and Lake counties by early afternoon. Confidence is still quite low regarding the potential for dry lightning, especially with weak lift and only marginal instability, but this timeframe will be monitored closely over the next 12-24 hours.

Otherwise, a pattern change is still expected early Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level trough drops into the PNW, inducing relative cooling of temperatures and slightly elevated westerly winds. NBM probabilities drop off significantly in the upper 80's and low 90's for the interior valleys, especially on Thursday following a weak frontal passage. This bit of lift will likely be sufficient to reduce coastal stratus in the latter half of the week. 500 mb clusters are beginning to align in favor of relatively zonal flow turning over to broad ridging late next weekend for another warming trend.

Marine
Northerly winds persist this morning, then weaken this afternoon, and by this evening only the southern waters are forecasted to support short period seas steep enough for a small craft advisory. Meanwhile a minor northwest swell of 5 feet at 11 seconds will persist through the day today then decay Tuesday. Northerlies are forecast to remain below 15 kt for most zones during Tuesday through Thursday morning, aside from the persistent 15-20 kt northerlies expected directly downwind of Cape Mendo. Winds may strengthen again Thursday afternoon into this weekend.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-455-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT Tuesday for PZZ475.