Point Arena to Point Reyes CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...S Wind 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 33 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. Wave Detail: S 11 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 8 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Until Late Afternoon, Then Rain Likely Late. |
| Tonight...Se Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 14 Ft. Wave Detail: S 9 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 12 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Easing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 13 Ft, Subsiding To 8 To 11 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 12 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Fri Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: W 7 Ft At 12 Seconds And Sw 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sat...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain. |
| Sat Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 12 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Sun...Nw Wind Around 10 Kt, Backing To S In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 11 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Wind 15 To 20 Kt, Veering To Nw After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: W 7 Ft At 13 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain Likely. |
| Mon...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: W 9 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Mon Night...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt, Easing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: W 9 Ft At 11 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 138pm PST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, Long Term .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131pm PST Thu Nov 13 2025 -Impactful storm system to continue through tonight -Active weather pattern continues through next week -Hazardous beach conditions persist .SHORT TERM... Issued at 131pm PST Thu Nov 13 2025 (This evening through Friday Night) Widespread rain showers continue to stream in ahead of a potent upper low this afternoon. As far as wind headlines, we'll maintain a Wind Advisory for gusts near/above 45 mph across the Central Coast. The Point Sur VWP continues to sample 0-1 km flow of at or above 50 knots and this is generally in line with short-term model guidance that advertises around 45-50 knots around 925mb. Surface observations across this region also still indicate gusts of 45 mph across interior San Benito, with gusts near or just under 60 mph in a few spots along the Big Sur Coastline. We'll continue to see our band of showers persist through the afternoon and into the early evening hours as forcing for ascent continues across our area. Taking a look at some of the Storm Prediction Center MesoA products, there still remains a small sliver of instability across the extreme eastern portions of the Santa Clara Hills and San Benito County, as well as far southern portions of Monterey County. The overall trend, however, is diminishing, likely due to the widespread rainfall that is flattening out mid/upper level lapse rates. With 40 to 50 meter height falls and mid-level cold air advection, there still seems to be a reasonable chance for thunder, at least across the aforementioned geographic regions, but even this potential is dwindling. Deep layer shear does remain plentiful, but with the instability waning, the likelihood of organized convective modes is on the decline. Still, we'll monitor for any transient low-topped organized convective modes. For the rest of this afternoon and into the evening, our best rain chances (and thus flood risk) will shift southward. The time- lagged HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) ensemble seems to align well with radar/satellite presentations and in fact some of the precip-object tracking items indicate that over the next 2-4 hours, the corridor of heaviest rainfall will shift to the southern Big Sur Coastline. This aligns well with short term NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) as the nose of the strongest flow at 925mb will be focused here. Upper troughing remains in place through the day on Friday. With no real moisture being scoured out, we'll maintain opportunities for rainshowers. Not too atypical of these broadly forced scenarios, there are a variety of solutions, all which have reasonable outcomes (boom or bust). This results in a lower-confidence Probability of Precipitation forecast. What I can say with confidence is that many if not most areas will continue to have at least a 50 to 60 percent chance for measurable rainfall given that we'll still have broad ascent with a moist regime (though PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will decrease). While it won't necessarily rain continuously through the day at all locales, intermittent isolated to scattered precipitation will continue and this is supported by hi-resolution model guidance. Rain amounts this afternoon and into Friday night are anticipated to average around 0.20-0.75" across the Bay Area to around 1" across the Central Coast. Higher terrain such as the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Diablo, Santa Lucia, and Gabilan Ranges could average between 1-2" with isolated +3.5" (Santa Lucia) amounts. This may support largely nuisance flooding across these areas. Long Term Issued at 131pm PST Thu Nov 13 2025 (Saturday through next Wednesday) Confidence in a quasi-active weather pattern remains low to moderate as the current upper trough is expected to detach from the main flow and become a meandering upper low across the region. As the parent low jogs eastward through the Central Valley, low level 850-925mb theta-e advection will support ascent atop a cool/moist airmass. Blended guidance seems very reasonable a Probability of Precipitation gradient from near 10% or less across the North Bay to near 80% across far southern Monterey and San Benito County. By the end of the weekend into early next week, a broad upper trough should kick our current low to the east. This next trough is highly amplified and with the mid/upper level speed maxima upstream of the main trough axis, there's a chance that timing could change. Cluster analysis indicates a wide array of solutions with some scenarios advertising a swifter movement of this feature to the east, while others delay the movement of the trough. At any rate, large scale ascent support Probability of Precipitation through just about the entire outlook period. At this time rainfall amounts Sunday afternoon and into Tuesday appear to be largely under 1.5", however, we'll fine-tune this forecast as we venture through the weekend. Marine (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 954am PST Thu Nov 13 2025 Widespread hazardous marine conditions continue this morning, conditions gradually diminishing from north to south later in the morning and afternoon. Gales force winds, heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany a strong cold front as it moves eastward. Winds will then continue to steadily decrease tonight. Moderate to rough seas will build to become rough for the inner waters and very rough for the outer waters today through Friday. Seas abate to become moderate by Saturday. Beaches Issued at 124am PST Thu Nov 13 2025 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from this afternoon through Friday evening. Long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet with the highest waves up to 23 feet in favored locations are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Wind Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for CAZ516>518-528- 530. PZ...Gale Warning until 3pm PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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