Point Arena to Point Reyes CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Wind Around 5 Kt, Rising To 5 To 10 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog This Morning. |
| Tonight...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Easing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Thu...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Wind Around 5 Kt, Backing To W In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Sat...Nw Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 16 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 17 Seconds. |
| Sun...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 120am PDT Wednesday August 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM,Fire Weather .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118am PDT Wednesday August 12 2026 - Near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties due to high based thunderstorms - Up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday across the Central Coast - Cooling trend through Friday will bring well below normal temperatures, gradual warming trend through the weekend - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning .SHORT TERM... Issued at 118am PDT Wednesday August 12 2026 (Today and tonight) Today's forecast attention turns 300 miles southwest of Point Conception where a low pressure system is bringing up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday across the Central Coast. This has the potential to be a low probability/high impact scenario and will bring near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties. So far, lightning has remained confined to the circulation with mid-to-high level clouds beginning to stream in. An upstream upper-level trough, mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 degrees C/km creating sufficient MUCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg, and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in excess of one inch are the thunderstorm ingredients. Confidence is lowest in the lift/trigger as guidance/models are struggling with the circulation and cutoff lows are notorious to forecast due to their independence from the jet stream. Uncertainty lies in what these two features will do when they collide, including track and potential dry air entrainment which would lower rain shower/thunderstorm chances. With moisture confined to the mid-to- upper-levels and a dry slot in the low levels, DCAPE values of 500- 1000 J/kg will be capable of producing erratic/gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph with any rain showers/thunderstorms that develop. The main concern is lightning which will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue to be transported into the Central Coast via light southwesterly winds. The smell and appearance of smoke will be the worst under the inversion at night and in the morning. Sensible weather wise, the cooling and moistening trend will continue through Friday with temperatures well below normal and a deep marine layer bringing a chance of drizzle. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning. Long Term Issued at 118am PDT Wednesday August 12 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Cooling and moistening trend continues through Friday as global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level troughing will remain over the West Coast. By the weekend, heigheights will begin to rise as upper-level ridging builds in from the Southeast while simultaneously a cutoff low develops off the Pacific Northwest. Sensible weather wise, this will result in a gradual warming trend and an increase in onshore flow; however, temperatures will remain below normal. Marine (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 914pm PDT Tuesday August 11 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds continue into early Thursday with near gale gusts possible at times tonight over the northern outer waters with wind driven rough seas up to 12 feet. Long period southerly swell will gradually increase late in the week, peaking between 16 to 18 seconds late Friday through early Sunday. Expect haze and smoke to limit visibility at times along the Big Sur coast due to the Timber fire. Fire Weather Issued at 118am PDT Wednesday August 12 2026 Near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties due to high based thunderstorms. Confidence remains low for a low probability/high impact scenario of elevated rain showers/thunderstorms across the Central Coast from a low pressure system that is currently 300 miles southwest of Point Conception. Erratic/gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph can be expected with any elevated rain showers/thunderstorms. Lightning will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire in Big Sur. The areas of most concern will be in the higher terrain above the marine layer (1,500 feet), namely the Santa Lucia Mountains and Gabilan Range. Poor minimum daytime relative humidity around 30% is expected in the afternoons with little-to-no recovery overnight. Sarment NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. x.com/nwsbayarea. |
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