Point Arena to Point Reyes CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Becoming N 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Wind Waves 5 To 7 Ft... Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight. W Swell 6 To 7 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Wind Waves 1 To 2 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. W Swell 5 To 7 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. W Swell 8 To 10 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Knots. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. W Swell 11 To 13 Ft At 16 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Knots. Wind Waves 9 To 11 Ft. Nw Swell 10 To 12 Ft At 14 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Wind Waves 8 To 10 Ft. Nw Swell 8 To 10 Ft At 13 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Knots With Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. Nw Swell 8 To 10 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
948pm PST Wednesday Feb 8 2023
Warmest afternoon temperatures of the week expected on Thursday. A weak front moves through Friday night into Saturday providing a low probability of light precipitation and cooler morning low temperatures.
As of 09:20pm PDT Wednesday...Looking at satellite imagery tonight and it makes it difficult to determine whether or not it is animating or if it is a still photo, given the lack of clouds around the region. Temperatures remain 2 to 4 temperatures warmer than 24 hours previous at this time as the building high pressure over the Eastern Pacific grows. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s today, although Corralitos did reach 71. Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow with better chances for interior areas to surpass 65 degrees Fahrenheit, and a few more isolated areas may touch the low 70s.
The system that approaches does not look robust. The chance for precipitation remains in the forecast for Friday night through much of Saturday morning as it moves from north to south from the North Bay past the Central Coast. Accumulations looks low. The highest probability for a tenth of an inch remains over the Santa Lucia Range, but even that has shaky confidence. It looks to be a trace to a few hundredths event. Behind it, cooler air will descend with many areas returning to morning lows below 40 degrees. Not projecting widespread frost/freeze conditions as 850 mb temperatures look to remain too warm. On the back side of the upper level trough could produce offshore windier conditions aloft, particularly on early Sunday morning, which might influence Napa County into slightly warming morning lows. However, to major impacts are projected. For more information, on the forecast, consult the forecast below.
As of 02:43pm PST Wednesday...Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures are the main weather story this afternoon. Lastest observations around the region as of 2pm show many spots are sitting in the 60s with 50s near the coast and hills.
Tonight through Thursday:
The warmer temperatures noted today are a result of building high pressure. High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will continue to build over the Bay Area and Central Coast through Thursday. Therefore expect mild days and cool nights. Tonight will feature lows in the mid/upper 30s interior valleys and 40s coast/bays. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid/upper 60s across much of the Bay Area to the lower 70s across interior areas of the Central Coast. Given the stable airmass with high pressure patchy fog will be possible again tonight, especially N Bay Valleys and S Salinas Valley.
Thursday night into the weekend: A pattern change occurs Thursday night as high pressure moves eastward and an upstream upper level trough approaches. The first notable change on Friday will be increase clouds and cooler daytime temperatures. Highs on Friday will drop 5-8 degrees and be in the mid 50s/mid 60s. The upper trough will ultimately deepen to a cut off low Friday night/Saturday. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis have rather good agreement with the cutoff low forming over the Bay Area/Central Coast. As the upper low forms a chance for precipitation returns to the region late Friday night and early Saturday. As the upper low drifts southward Saturday the chance of precipitation moves from the N Bay southward to Monterey/San Benito counties. Cut off lows in this situation are generally not begin rain producers and this low is no different. Official forecast keeps rainfall amounts Friday night through Saturday at only a few hundredths to a tenth. The probabilistic guidance is relatively low with many locations 20-40% for at least 0.01" and of <10% to exceed 0.1". In other words, not a lot of precip.
Precip chances end by Saturday evening. By Sunday the upper low is well to the S and high pressure builds in from the N. This will set the stage for offshore flow. Breezy to gusty winds will be possible Sunday into Monday. The winds will be strongest over the North Bay and East Bay higher terrain. The offshore flow will allow for much warmer temperatures Sunday due to downslope flow.
Next week: The warmer weather will linger into Monday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. However, the warm up will be short-lived as temperatures drop by 10-15 degrees Tuesday.
as of 09:47pm PST Wednesday...Winds and swell will diminish tonight into tomorrow with additional trains of northwest swells following behind, the largest of which arrives Friday into Saturday, with another following behind to start next week. Strong winds arrive this weekend with potential gale force gusts as a weather system moves through. This system will also bring the slight chance for showers over the waters.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories