Point Arena to Point Reyes CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Tonight...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Mon...N Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...N Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Tue...E Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Ne Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Wed...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Wed Night...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain Likely. |
| New Years Day...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 11 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. Rain. |
| Thu Night...Se Wind Around 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 325pm PST Sunday Dec 28 2025 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 128pm PST Sunday Dec 28 2025 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure building into the Intermountain West and a coastal trough off the West Coast will dominate our weather through Tuesday. This is a textbook setup for offshore flow. Fortunately, we do not need to worry about fire weather concerns as we normally would. Instead, clear and dry conditions will yield cold overnight conditions. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight for interior and valley locations. This goes for everyone but especially for those of you who are still without power: do not use generators or grills inside as carbon monoxide poisoning can result! Whether you are in the Cold Weather Advisory or not, it is going to be a cold night and a cold start to the week. Some grief was had over the minimum temperature forecast due to the aforementioned offshore flow. Why? Well, offshore flow can bring compressional/downslope warming. This is why the North Bay Interior Mountains were left out of the Cold Weather Advisory. 925mb flow (~2500 ft) from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) show 30 knots through there overnight. This will mix down warmer and drier air aloft which should help keep the area above 36 degrees. There is even a bust scenario where it mixes all the way down to the North Bay Interior Valleys, but that is not as likely. Another bust scenario is that the Northern Salinas Valley remains above 36 degrees with the help of moderate drainage winds. Nonetheless, the warming and drying trend will continue through Tuesday with cold overnight conditions. Long Term Issued at 128pm PST Sunday Dec 28 2025 (Wednesday through next Saturday) Coastal flooding from King Tides returns Wednesday and lasts into Sunday. This will impact the Monterey Bay Shoreline, San Francisco Bay Shoreline, San Pablo Bay Shoreline, and the Pacific Coast. If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. A pattern change is on tap for Wednesday as a surface low pressure system near the California/Mexico border picks up tropical moisture on its journey northward. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble IVT forecast shows their 80 member ensemble mean breaching 250 kg/ms during this time. It's too soon to say with certainty, but minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas as well as flashy creeks/streams can be expected as early as Wednesday. Tree debris from this past week that hasn't been disposed of may act to clog storm drains and gutters, resulting in more flooding. Wind will increase during this time, but it is not expected to be impactful by itself. However, the combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees, especially where trees have recently been weakened. If you are looking for a sign to put away your outdoor holiday decorations, this is it. All outdoor preparations such as securing loose outdoor items, trimming tree branches, and cleaning out gutters should be finished by Tuesday. There's also a low chance (<15%) for thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, but that will be heavily dependent on the exact trajectory of the low. The more impactful of the two systems looks to be Friday as a surface low pressure system and its attendant cold front come into Northern California. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS depict a 50+ knot 925mb jet accompanying it which may equate to a Wind Advisory for portions of the area (mainly looking at the coast and the higher terrain). The same rain impacts of minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas as well as flashy creeks/streams can be expected during this timeframe. Deterministic and ensemble river forecasts do not show any mainstem river points reaching minor flood stage; however, this could be a result of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast only recently trending up this morning after the river forecasts were already completed. HEFS does show a 10% chance of river flow exceedance for the notoriously flashy spots in Sonoma County of Russian River at Geyserville (GEYC1), Laguna de Santa Rosa at Stony Point Road NR Cotati (CTIC1), and Mark West Creek near Mirabel Heigheights (MWEC1) which finally dropped below action stage just as I was typing this. Marine (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 318pm PST Sunday Dec 28 2025 A gentle northerly breeze will gradually shift to easterly over the next 24 hours. Seas will remain moderate through Thursday. Overall marine conditions will remain favorable before the next low pressure system brings strong southerly winds and rough seas by Friday. Beaches Issued at 945am PST Sunday Dec 28 2025 Perigean spring tides (king tides) return Wednesday - Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong onshore winds, generating some storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide Wednesday through Sunday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal at 7:51am Wednesday, 1.7 ft above normal at 8:41am Thursday, 1.8 ft above normal at 9:34am Friday, 1.8 ft above normal at 10:26am Saturday, and 1.6 ft above normal at 11:18am Sunday. These predictions include 0.5 feet of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5am Wednesday to 2pm PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506-508-509-529-530. Cold Weather Advisory from 1am to 9am PST Monday for CAZ506- 510-513>518-528. PZ...None. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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